Украина и ЕС не хотят продлевать контракты по транзиту газа с Россией. Что это значит для «Газпрома»

РБК Инвестиции

29 Jan 202411:29

Summary

TLDRThis video features a discussion on the future of gas transit through Ukraine to Europe, amid the expiring contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz at the end of 2024. With official Kiev stating they do not intend to extend the agreement, the focus shifts to potential alternatives for gas transport and supply. The conversation delves into the EU's stance, as reported by Bloomberg, on seeking alternatives to Russian gas transit, reflecting on Gazprom's export volumes and the broader implications for the energy market in Europe. Analyst Dmitry Alexandrov joins to assess the impact of these developments on Gazprom's operational and financial performance, considering various scenarios and their potential effect on the company's stock value.

Takeaways

😀 The contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz for gas transit through Ukraine to Europe expires at the end of 2024.
😕 Ukraine has said it does not intend to extend the transit agreement, but is open to discussing use of its infrastructure with the EU.
😕 The EU has not made an official statement, but Bloomberg reports it does not plan to extend the transit deal as alternatives are available.
👍 Gazprom's export volumes in 2023 were around 90 bcm total, with 20-24 bcm to Europe - significant but lower than pre-conflict levels.
😕 Gazprom's gas transit through Ukraine's pipeline fell 28% in 2023 to around 14 bcm from 20 bcm in 2022.
😕 The probability of the Gazprom-Naftogaz deal not being renewed is around 50/50 - Ukraine wants to reduce Russian gas dependence.
😕 But renewal is still possible depending on demand forecasts and availability of supply alternatives for Europe.
😕 Non-renewal could further pressure Gazprom's already weak profitability from falling gas volumes.
😕 For investors, Gazprom shares could fall further from current lows around 150 rubles if transit stops.
😕 But the shares remain a trading play within a range, not a long-term favorite given geopolitical risks.

Q & A

What is the current contract expiration date for gas transit from Russia to Europe via Ukraine?
-The current contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz for gas transit to Europe via Ukraine expires at the end of 2024.
What was the volume of Gazprom's pipeline gas exports to Europe in 2023 according to estimates?
-According to expert estimates, the volume of Gazprom's pipeline gas exports to Europe in 2023 was around 20-25 billion cubic meters.
How much did Gazprom's gas transit volumes via Ukraine's gas transportation system decrease in 2023 compared to 2022?
-According to estimates, Gazprom's gas transit volumes via Ukraine's gas transportation system decreased by about 28% in 2023 to around 14 billion cubic meters, down from 20 billion in 2022.
What is the likelihood of the transit contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom not being renewed according to the analyst?
-The analyst estimates the likelihood at around 50/50 that the transit contract will either be renewed or not renewed.
What were Gazprom's total export volumes in 2023 according to estimates?
-According to unofficial estimates, Gazprom's total export volumes in 2023 were around 84-85 billion cubic meters.
What is driving the effort to displace Russian pipeline gas from the European market?
-The original intent was to displace Gazprom and overall pipeline gas from the European market, so the main motive likely consists of that.
How dependent are European countries on Russian gas supplies?
-Even countries most dependent on Russian supplies like Austria and Slovakia would be able to find alternative gas supply sources if Russian transit were halted.
How might termination of gas transit via Ukraine financially impact Gazprom?
-It would significantly hurt the profitability of such supplies as seen in Gazprom's financial reporting. A lot would depend on domestic Russian tariff dynamics and investment plans going forward.
What is the analyst's price target and outlook for Gazprom stock in 2024?
-The analyst sees Gazprom stock trading rangebound between 150 and 172 rubles per share currently, not having a specific price target for 2024.
How does Gazprom stock compare to Sberbank as an investment?
-Gazprom concentrates all Russia/geopolitical risks similarly to Sberbank stock, but has more limited growth prospects due to competition and demand constraints compared to financial services.

Outlines

00:00

🔍 The Uncertain Future of Gas Transit Through Ukraine

The segment opens with discussions about the uncertain future of gas transit from Russia to Europe through Ukraine, given the expiring contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz by the end of 2024. Despite Ukraine's reluctance to renew the agreement, discussions with the EU about utilizing Ukraine's gas transportation infrastructure are underway. The EU has not officially stated its stance, but reports suggest it might not extend the transit agreements with Russia, citing the possibility of finding alternative gas sources. This report examines Gazprom's gas export volumes, estimated at around 90 billion cubic meters in 2023, with Europe purchasing about 20-24 billion cubic meters, amidst reduced supplies to the continent. The narrative also highlights the two main routes for Russian gas to Europe: through Ukraine and the Turkish Stream pipeline.

05:00

💼 Analyzing Gazprom's Operational and Financial Outlook

This paragraph delves into the operational and financial implications for Gazprom if gas transit through Ukraine ceases after 2024. The discussion considers the potential for ending the contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz, and the likelihood of continued gas supplies through Ukraine, assessing it as a 50/50 chance. The conversation touches on Gazprom's export volumes, pricing dynamics, and the financial impact of different scenarios, including the possibility of force majeure and the implications for Gazprom's stock prices. Despite the uncertainty, some analysts predict the potential for Gazprom's securities to rise, acknowledging the unpredictability of market movements and the broader implications for the company's financial health and investment prospects.

10:01

📈 Investment Perspectives on Gazprom's Stock

The final segment provides an investment analysis of Gazprom, portraying the stock as a range-bound investment with specific buy and sell thresholds. It highlights the inherent risks associated with Gazprom, including geopolitical tensions and market dynamics, contrasting its growth potential with that of other sectors like financial services. The dialogue suggests a cautious investment strategy, emphasizing the stock's volatility and the limited growth prospects due to competition and restricted demand. The analysis concludes with an expert's perspective, viewing Gazprom not as a top pick but as a cyclical opportunity for savvy investors.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Gas transit

Gas transit refers to the transportation of natural gas through pipelines across a country's territory to reach another destination. In the context of this video, it specifically talks about the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine's gas transportation system to reach European markets. This transit agreement between Russia's Gazprom and Ukraine's Naftogaz is set to expire at the end of 2024, and the video discusses the possibility of its non-renewal.

💡Contract

A contract is a legally binding agreement between two or more parties. In this video, the contract refers to the agreement between Gazprom and Naftogaz regarding the transportation of Russian gas through Ukraine's infrastructure to Europe. The expiration of this contract at the end of 2024 and the potential for non-renewal is a significant topic of discussion, as it could lead to the complete suspension of Russian gas transit through Ukraine.

💡European Union (EU)

The European Union is a political and economic union of 27 European countries. The video mentions that the EU is a major purchaser of Russian pipeline gas, importing around 20-25 billion cubic meters in 2023 according to expert estimates. The position of the EU on the potential non-renewal of the Gazprom-Naftogaz transit contract is a key factor in determining the future of Russian gas exports to Europe.

💡Alternative sources

Alternative sources refer to other options for obtaining natural gas that are different from the traditional pipeline imports from Russia. The video suggests that even countries heavily dependent on Russian gas, like Austria and Slovakia, could find alternative sources of supply in case of a halt in Russian transit through Ukraine. These alternatives could include liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from countries like the United States, Australia, Qatar, and Algeria.

💡Export

Export refers to the sale and shipment of goods or services from one country to another. In this context, the video discusses Gazprom's natural gas exports, which are estimated to be around 90 billion cubic meters in 2023, with Europe being a significant buyer at 20-25 billion cubic meters, despite the reduction in pipeline gas supplies.

💡Financial performance

Financial performance refers to the measurement of a company's financial health and profitability. The video raises questions about the potential impact on Gazprom's financial performance if gas transit through Ukraine is completely suspended after 2025. This could affect the company's revenue, profitability, and stock price, as European exports have traditionally been an important source of revenue for Gazprom.

💡Domestic market

The domestic market refers to the Russian market within the country's borders. The video suggests that the Russian domestic market has become an increasingly important market for Gazprom, both in terms of sales and financial performance, as opposed to being solely a burden as it was in the past. Factors such as tariff dynamics and investment programs within Russia will impact Gazprom's future financial results.

💡Investment program

An investment program is a plan for how a company will allocate its resources for future investments. The video mentions that Gazprom's future investment program will play a significant role in determining its adjusted net profit, as it directly affects the company's capital expenditures and cash flows. Changes in the investment program could impact the availability of funds for dividends and ultimately influence the company's stock price.

💡Dividends

Dividends are payments made by a company to its shareholders, typically from the company's profits. The video discusses how Gazprom's ability to pay dividends will be influenced by factors such as its investment program, tax policies (specifically, mineral extraction tax or NDPI), and the government's decisions regarding Gazprom's role as the operator of Russia's unified gas transportation system.

💡Stock price

Stock price refers to the current market value of a company's shares on a stock exchange. The video raises questions about the potential impact of suspending gas transit through Ukraine on Gazprom's stock price, which is currently trading around 150-170 rubles per share. Analysts have differing opinions on whether Gazprom's stock could rise or fall further based on factors such as its future financial performance, export volumes, and the overall geopolitical situation.

Highlights

The video is abnormal, and we are working hard to fix it.
Please replace the link and try again.