Украина и ЕС не хотят продлевать контракты по транзиту газа с Россией. Что это значит для «Газпрома»

Summary

This video features a discussion on the future of gas transit through Ukraine to Europe, amid the expiring contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz at the end of 2024. With official Kiev stating they do not intend to extend the agreement, the focus shifts to potential alternatives for gas transport and supply. The conversation delves into the EU's stance, as reported by Bloomberg, on seeking alternatives to Russian gas transit, reflecting on Gazprom's export volumes and the broader implications for the energy market in Europe. Analyst Dmitry Alexandrov joins to assess the impact of these developments on Gazprom's operational and financial performance, considering various scenarios and their potential effect on the company's stock value.

Takeaways

• 😀 The contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz for gas transit through Ukraine to Europe expires at the end of 2024.
• 😕 Ukraine has said it does not intend to extend the transit agreement, but is open to discussing use of its infrastructure with the EU.
• 😕 The EU has not made an official statement, but Bloomberg reports it does not plan to extend the transit deal as alternatives are available.
• 👍 Gazprom's export volumes in 2023 were around 90 bcm total, with 20-24 bcm to Europe - significant but lower than pre-conflict levels.
• 😕 Gazprom's gas transit through Ukraine's pipeline fell 28% in 2023 to around 14 bcm from 20 bcm in 2022.
• 😕 The probability of the Gazprom-Naftogaz deal not being renewed is around 50/50 - Ukraine wants to reduce Russian gas dependence.
• 😕 But renewal is still possible depending on demand forecasts and availability of supply alternatives for Europe.
• 😕 Non-renewal could further pressure Gazprom's already weak profitability from falling gas volumes.
• 😕 For investors, Gazprom shares could fall further from current lows around 150 rubles if transit stops.
• 😕 But the shares remain a trading play within a range, not a long-term favorite given geopolitical risks.

Q & A

What is the current contract expiration date for gas transit from Russia to Europe via Ukraine?

The current contract between Gazprom and Naftogaz for gas transit to Europe via Ukraine expires at the end of 2024.

What was the volume of Gazprom's pipeline gas exports to Europe in 2023 according to estimates?

According to expert estimates, the volume of Gazprom's pipeline gas exports to Europe in 2023 was around 20-25 billion cubic meters.

How much did Gazprom's gas transit volumes via Ukraine's gas transportation system decrease in 2023 compared to 2022?

According to estimates, Gazprom's gas transit volumes via Ukraine's gas transportation system decreased by about 28% in 2023 to around 14 billion cubic meters, down from 20 billion in 2022.

What is the likelihood of the transit contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom not being renewed according to the analyst?

The analyst estimates the likelihood at around 50/50 that the transit contract will either be renewed or not renewed.

What were Gazprom's total export volumes in 2023 according to estimates?

According to unofficial estimates, Gazprom's total export volumes in 2023 were around 84-85 billion cubic meters.

What is driving the effort to displace Russian pipeline gas from the European market?

The original intent was to displace Gazprom and overall pipeline gas from the European market, so the main motive likely consists of that.

How dependent are European countries on Russian gas supplies?

Even countries most dependent on Russian supplies like Austria and Slovakia would be able to find alternative gas supply sources if Russian transit were halted.

How might termination of gas transit via Ukraine financially impact Gazprom?

It would significantly hurt the profitability of such supplies as seen in Gazprom's financial reporting. A lot would depend on domestic Russian tariff dynamics and investment plans going forward.

What is the analyst's price target and outlook for Gazprom stock in 2024?

The analyst sees Gazprom stock trading rangebound between 150 and 172 rubles per share currently, not having a specific price target for 2024.

How does Gazprom stock compare to Sberbank as an investment?

Gazprom concentrates all Russia/geopolitical risks similarly to Sberbank stock, but has more limited growth prospects due to competition and demand constraints compared to financial services.