Пленные на борту Ил-76 — были или нет? Руслан Левиев

Alexandr Plushev

25 Jan 202418:50

Summary

TLDRRussian-language transcript analyzes information and theories about a recent plane crash incident.

Takeaways

✈️ The conversation revolves around the downing of an IL-76 aircraft, with discussions on possible culprits based on available information.
🔮 Analysis of video and wreckage evidence suggests the plane was hit by a missile, indicated by the damaged fuselage resembling a sieve from missile shrapnel.
🛩 Both sides of the conflict had the technical capability to shoot down the plane, with past incidents of friendly fire noted.
📢 The script compares the situation to MH17, noting initial reports and retractions, hinting at similarities in information dissemination.
💬 Statements from both sides are analyzed, with no clear admission or denial about the downing, leaving room for speculation.
🛩 Speculation about the presence of prisoners on board is based on indirect hints from official statements and lack of direct evidence.
🔬 The possibility of carrying prisoners on military flights is discussed, with personal accounts suggesting it's not uncommon.
🚨 The conversation touches on the complexities of military communication and the potential for tragic errors due to miscommunication.
📖 Lists of passengers and their verification are discussed, with some names confirmed as prisoners, adding to the mystery.
💁‍♂️ The interview concludes with reflections on the challenges of discerning truth in wartime, emphasizing the prevalence of misinformation.

Q & A

What information do we have available to determine who shot down the IL-76 plane?
-At this point, we only have limited information to determine who shot down the plane. We know it was shot down based on video showing smoke trails from a missile. Both Russia and Ukraine have the technical capability to shoot down a plane in this area.
Did the Ukrainian side directly claim responsibility for shooting down the plane?
-No, the Ukrainian side did not directly claim responsibility. However, statements from their General Staff and intelligence agency suggest they were involved in downing planes transporting missiles in this region.
Were there prisoners of war on board the IL-76 plane?
-It's unclear, but comments from the Ukrainian side imply there may have been POWs aboard. They mentioned the plane may have been transporting prisoners without notifying them to avoid the airspace.
Why were there no bodies visible in videos of the crash site?
-The large explosion and fire likely incinerated many of the bodies. Reports say remains were scattered over 1.5-2 km, much more area than shown in the videos.
How common is it to transport prisoners of war by plane?
-Initially seen as unusual, but Ukrainian POWs confirmed they had been transported by IL-76 planes to Russia while in captivity. So it seems to be a common practice.
Could this have been an accidental shootdown?
-Yes, quite possible. Miscommunication between Ukrainian air defense and those coordinating the prisoner exchange could have led to the shootdown.
What do we know about the flight path before the crash?
-The videos only show the crash, not the full flight path before. The plane could have been circling or waiting for landing clearance, so the westward path alone is inconclusive.
Were there enough guards accompanying 65 POWs?
-Unclear, reports vary. But with handcuffed and hooded POWs, a few guards on board plus at each airport could be sufficient.
Can the passenger manifest be verified?
-Partially. Many names match confirmed POWs. One name was on a previous exchange list. No definitive disproof yet.
What theories did the Russian side suggest about the crash?
-Suggestions it was shot down by Ukrainian S-300 missiles or was a military transport plane, but no evidence shown to support those theories.

Outlines

00:00

😕 Руслан обсуждает неопределенность относительно обстоятельств катастрофы Ил-76

Руслан говорит, что на данный момент невозможно определить, кто именно сбил самолет Ил-76 - российские или украинские военные. Обе стороны имели техническую возможность это сделать. Пока нет объективных данных, чтобы склониться в пользу какой-либо версии. Единственное, что можно утверждать - самолет был сбит ракетой. Нужно анализировать заявления обеих сторон.

05:00

😕 Обсуждение вероятности наличия пленных на борту Ил-76

Руслан и ведущий обсуждают вероятность наличия военнопленных на борту сбитого Ил-76. Исходя из осторожных комментариев украинской стороны, создается впечатление, что пленные там скорее всего были. Украинцы не опровергают эту версию. Также обсуждается количество сопровождающих и обычность перевозки пленных авиатранспортом.

10:02

😕 Попытка реконструкции событий, приведших к крушению Ил-76

Руслан и ведущий пытаются реконструировать цепочку событий, приведших к крушению Ил-76. Предполагается, что украинские ПВО увидели на радаре самолет, приняли его за военный и сбили. Выяснилось позже, что там были пленные. Скорее всего, ПВО не знали об обмене и действовали в рамках своих полномочий.

15:02

😕 Обсуждение достоверности опубликованных списков пассажиров Ил-76

Руслан говорит, что лично не проверял списки погибших пассажиров Ил-76. Другие проверяли и нашли там реальных военнопленных. Пока нет однозначных опровержений этих списков. Точно ли эти люди были на борту - неясно.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡IL-76

The IL-76 is a strategic airlifter designed by the Soviet Union and widely used for transporting large goods and personnel, including military deployments. In the script, the IL-76 is mentioned as having been shot down, which serves as the central event around which the discussion revolves. The destruction of the aircraft, evidenced by video footage of smoke clouds and wreckage, suggests it was hit by a missile, highlighting the dangers such aircraft face in conflict zones.

💡Air Defense (PVO)

Air defense refers to measures used to protect against an attack by enemy aircraft or missiles. In the script, both Russian and Ukrainian air defenses are mentioned, underscoring the capability of both sides to engage and neutralize airborne threats. The narrative touches on instances where air defense systems may mistakenly target friendly aircraft, illustrating the complexity and risks of operating these systems in the heat of conflict.

💡Missile

A missile is a guided airborne weapon capable of inflicting damage on targets from long distances. The script implies that a missile strike was responsible for downing the IL-76, based on the observed damage to the aircraft's hull and the smoke cloud in the video. This highlights the lethality of missile systems in modern warfare and their role in shaping the dynamics of military engagements.

💡Warplane Incidents

Refers to occurrences where military aircraft are accidentally or intentionally shot down or damaged, often due to misidentification or technical failures. The script discusses past incidents involving both Russian and Ukrainian forces, pointing to the recurring nature of such tragedies in conflict areas and the potential for miscommunication and errors within military operations.

💡Communication Breakdown

This concept pertains to the failure in communication channels or protocols, leading to misunderstandings or lack of information sharing among military units. The script suggests that a lack of proper communication between different branches of the military could lead to friendly fire incidents or other operational mistakes, emphasizing the importance of effective communication in military strategy.

💡MH17

MH17 refers to Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, a passenger plane shot down over eastern Ukraine in 2014. The script mentions this incident in comparison to the downing of the IL-76, suggesting parallels in how information is released or retracted by authorities and media in the aftermath of such events, highlighting the challenges of obtaining accurate information in conflict situations.

💡Prisoners of War (POWs)

POWs are individuals captured by an enemy during an armed conflict. The script debates whether POWs were on board the IL-76, based on statements and indirect hints from both sides. This discussion reflects the complexity of wartime operations and the grave implications of transporting POWs, especially regarding international laws and humanitarian concerns.

💡Flight Radar Data

Flight radar data provides real-time information about aircraft movements and has been used to track commercial and, in some cases, military flights. In the script, there is speculation about the IL-76's movements based on flight radar data, illustrating the role of technology in modern conflict and the challenges in verifying such information amid military secrecy and misinformation.

💡Conspiracy Theories

The script touches on the proliferation of conspiracy theories following the downing of the IL-76, reflecting the tendency to speculate wildly in the absence of solid facts. Such theories often emerge in chaotic and information-scarce environments, complicating efforts to discern the truth behind complex events.

💡Friendly Fire

Friendly fire refers to an incident where military personnel or assets are mistakenly targeted by their own forces. The script discusses the potential for the IL-76 to have been downed by friendly fire, given the historical precedents of such accidents. This underscores the tragic errors that can occur in the fog of war and the ongoing need for stringent identification and engagement protocols.

💡Operational Security

Operational security involves practices and procedures designed to protect sensitive information from being accessed by adversaries. The script mentions the need for secrecy in military operations, such as troop movements or prisoner exchanges, and how this necessity can sometimes lead to a lack of coordination and tragic outcomes, highlighting the delicate balance between security and effective communication.

Highlights

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