Trump versus Harris: Who will win the US 2024 presidential election?

Summary

Professors John Anakis and Philip Jakar discuss their model for predicting U.S. presidential elections, which incorporates economic factors, incumbency, and candidate charisma. The model, based on Raymond Fair's econometric equation, predicts the Democratic and Republican vote share in two-party elections. They explain how macroeconomic variables and candidate charisma influence electoral outcomes, especially when economic signals are unclear. Their analysis suggests a potential Republican win but acknowledges that Harris' incumbency and charisma could tilt the results in favor of the Democrats. The discussion concludes with predictions and a friendly wager on the 2024 election outcome.

Takeaways

• 📊 The professors discuss a prediction model for the US presidential election, considering macroeconomic factors, incumbency, and charisma.
• 🔢 The prediction model is based on an econometric equation by Raymond Fair from Yale, which predicts Democratic vote share in two-party elections.
• 📉 The model uses three key economic indicators: short-term GDP growth, inflation rate, and a 'good news' variable based on GDP growth exceeding 3.2%.
• 🗳️ Incumbency is split into two factors: advantage due to familiarity (positive effect) and voter fatigue with the same party in power (negative effect).
• 🌍 A variable called 'war' is used to account for the impact of World Wars on the economy in historical data.
• 😎 The extended model also factors in the charisma of candidates, arguing that charisma matters more when economic signals are unclear.
• 📉 The professors shift their prediction focus from vote share to Electoral College votes to reflect actual election outcomes more accurately.
• 🎙️ Charisma is measured by analyzing speeches for leadership tactics like framing, metaphors, storytelling, and values-based messaging.
• 🔄 If Harris is perceived as the incumbent, the prediction model gives her a potential victory. Otherwise, Trump has a slight edge.
• 💬 The conversation ends with both professors placing informal bets: one believes Harris will win by leveraging incumbency, while the other predicts a Trump victory due to historical and polling trends.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the professors' prediction model discussed in the transcript?

The prediction model focuses on predicting the outcome of the US presidential election, using a combination of macroeconomic variables, incumbency, and candidates' charisma.

What is the original model that the professors built their prediction on?

The original model is based on Raymond Fair's econometric model of voting, which predicts the Democratic vote share in US presidential elections using macroeconomic and incumbency variables.

What are the key economic variables used in Raymond Fair's model?

The key economic variables are G (short-term GDP growth), P (inflation rate since the start of the current administration), and Z (the number of quarters where GDP growth was above 3.2%).

What additional factors did the professors introduce to extend Fair's model?

The professors extended the model by including the charisma of the candidates, hypothesizing that charisma plays a crucial role when the economy is not clearly performing well or poorly.

Why did the professors switch to predicting the Electoral College votes instead of the popular vote?

They switched to predicting the Electoral College votes because recent elections have shown that the popular vote doesn't always determine the winner, as voter distribution in key states plays a critical role.

How do the professors define and measure charisma in their model?

Charisma is defined as symbolic, value-based leadership signaling. It is measured by coding candidates' speeches for the presence of nine charismatic leadership tactics, such as using metaphors, telling stories, and expressing ambitious goals.

What were the key updates made to the charisma measurement in the professors' new model?

They normalized charisma scores by creating a charisma density score, which accounts for the length of the speeches, allowing for more stable and comparable predictions.

What does the model predict regarding the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election based on macroeconomic factors?

The model predicts that Republicans will win with 50.67% of the vote share, but this falls within a confidence interval that suggests the election is a toss-up.

How does the charisma of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump compare in this race, according to the model?

In terms of charisma, Donald Trump scores slightly higher at 52.92%, while Kamala Harris scores 49.2%. This charisma difference predicts a Republican victory.

What prediction does the model make if Kamala Harris is perceived as the incumbent and charisma is factored in?

If Kamala Harris is perceived as the incumbent and charisma is included in the model, it predicts a Democratic victory with 276 Electoral College votes.