What Football Analytics can Teach Successful Organisations | Rasmus Ankersen | TEDxManchester

Summary

The script discusses the fall of Nokia and Newcastle United as cautionary tales of success followed by failure, emphasizing the psychological pitfalls of outcome bias. It advocates for a gambler's mindset in business, using analytics to discern luck from skill and questioning the sustainability of success, rather than assuming good results stem from superior decisions.

Takeaways

• 📱 The Nokia 3310 was once considered the greatest phone ever made, known for its resilience, long battery life, and durability.
• 📉 Despite its success, the Nokia 3310 became a symbol of Nokia’s downfall, as the company lost significant market share in a short time.
• 🤔 The script explores how success often leads to psychological challenges for organizations, raising the question of why successful companies fail.
• ⚽ Newcastle United is an example of a football club that had all the potential for success but struggled to maintain it after a brief period of triumph.
• 🔢 The concept of randomness in football is introduced, emphasizing that fewer goals make it more prone to random events compared to higher-scoring sports like basketball.
• 📊 The speaker introduces Matthew Benham, a statistician who applies data and analytics from the gambling industry to football, using underlying performance indicators rather than just focusing on results.
• ⚖️ Newcastle’s fifth-place finish in the Premier League was considered a fragile achievement, with statistics indicating their success was driven by unsustainable factors like high conversion rates.
• 💡 Outcome bias is identified as a common management error, where leaders assume good results are always due to good decisions, without analyzing the role of luck or favorable conditions.
• 🎲 The message encourages organizations to think like gamblers, questioning success and investigating whether it was due to skill or luck.
• 🔍 Successful organizations should critically analyze their achievements to ensure long-term sustainability, separating luck from genuine performance.

Q & A

What was the Nokia 3310 known for?

The Nokia 3310 was known for its resilience, quality, and innovation. It was famous for its long battery life, the game Snake, and being indestructible.

Why did Nokia's market share plummet from 50% to 3% in less than five years?

The script suggests that Nokia failed to adapt and innovate quickly enough in a changing market, leading to a significant loss in market share.

What is the psychological challenge that often follows success according to the speaker?

The psychological challenge that often follows success is the tendency to assume that good results are always the consequence of good decisions and superior performance, which is known as outcome bias.

Why did Newcastle United finish 16th in the league after a 5th place finish the previous season?

Newcastle United's 5th place finish was unsustainable due to a high conversion rate and effective goal distribution that was unlikely to be repeated. The following season, they experienced a downturn in luck and performance.

What is outcome bias in the context of the script?

Outcome bias is the assumption that good results are always the consequence of good decisions and superior performance, rather than luck or external factors.

How does the speaker relate football analytics to business success?

The speaker relates football analytics to business success by suggesting that organizations should treat success with skepticism, much like a gambler, to separate luck from skill and adapt to changing circumstances.

What does the speaker suggest successful organizations should do to stay ahead?

Successful organizations should ask themselves the questions of a gambler, such as why they were successful and how to separate luck from skill, to avoid being blinded by outcome bias.

What is the importance of understanding the difference between luck and skill in the context of the script?

Understanding the difference between luck and skill is crucial for organizations to make informed decisions and to adapt strategies based on actual performance rather than temporary luck.

Why did the speaker and Matthew Benham buy the football club Michelin?

They bought Michelin to test radical ideas and to see if it was possible to achieve success in football using data and analytics, rather than just spending more money.

What was the significance of Newcastle United's 5th place finish in the English Premier League?

Newcastle United's 5th place finish was significant because it was an unexpected achievement that led to the team being overly optimistic about their future performance, which was not sustainable.

How does the speaker use the term 'the league table always lies'?

The speaker uses the term 'the league table always lies' to emphasize that the current standings in football do not always accurately reflect the true strength and future potential of a team due to the randomness and unpredictability of the sport.