Gold Forecast 22nd-26th April 2024 - XAUUSD Weekly Forecast Manipulation GDP PCE Jobless Claims PMI

Summary

This week's forecast for gold anticipates a potential downward move following a clear confirmation of an upward trend from the previous week. The speaker discusses various trading patterns, including manipulation areas and liquidity levels, which are crucial for understanding market behavior. They highlight a Doge candle pattern indicating a bearish move and a possible high-time-frame reversal. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of matching smaller time frame biases with the higher time frame for a more accurate trading strategy. They provide insights on how to identify and utilize manipulation areas and liquidity levels for trading opportunities. The speaker mentions their presence on various platforms, including a Facebook channel for daily updates, a free Telegram channel for voice notes, and a VIP channel for more in-depth analysis. They conclude by reiterating the expectation of a bearish move and encourage viewers to follow the provided links for more information.

Takeaways

• 🔗 The video description contains links to the speaker's Facebook Channel, Telegram Channel, and VIP Channel for updates throughout the week.
• 📈 The speaker anticipates a potential downwards move for gold this week, following a retest of support levels and a continuation upwards last week.
• 📉 A bearish move is expected to start at the beginning of the week, with a setup for a significant drop on the higher time frame.
• 🕒 The speaker notes a resistance level being hit and potential market manipulation, suggesting an imminent market reversal.
• 📍 The daily time frame shows a 'Doge candle' indicating liquidity above, which is a sign to look for a downwards move.
• 📌 The speaker identifies key areas of interest on the charts, including manipulation areas and support levels.
• ⏳ The speaker will provide updates on the free channel when bearish confirmations start to appear.
• 📊 The speaker emphasizes focusing on higher time frames and major areas for clarity, rather than cluttering the chart with all time frames.
• 📈 The speaker discusses how the price action from the previous week, including manipulation areas and liquidity grabs, can be used to predict future moves.
• 🔄 The speaker explains that gold's behavior involves repeatedly retesting manipulation areas and support levels, creating liquidity, and then moving price.
• ⏰ The speaker advises waiting for smaller time frames to match the higher time frame bias before entering a trade.
• 🤔 The speaker invites viewers to ask questions and provides links to their social media and VIP service for further insights.

Q & A

What updates can viewers expect on the speaker's Facebook Channel?

Viewers can expect to receive little updates throughout the day and week on the speaker's Facebook Channel, which will include images and insights related to the charts and areas of interest the speaker is focusing on.

What is the purpose of the voice notes on the free Telegram Channel?

The voice notes on the free Telegram Channel are intended to provide additional content and updates throughout the week, complementing the information shared in the weekly forecast.

What is the expected move for gold in the weekly forecast?

The weekly forecast anticipates a potential downwards move for gold, following a clear confirmation of a continuation up from the previous week.

What does the speaker consider as a sign of a potential reversal in the market?

The speaker considers the presence of certain candle patterns, such as a Doge candle, and the retesting of manipulation areas as signs of a potential reversal in the market.

How does the speaker identify areas of interest on the charts?

The speaker identifies areas of interest by looking at manipulation areas, liquidity levels, and retests of support and resistance on different time frames.

What is the significance of the 50% retest in the context of the speaker's analysis?

The 50% retest signifies a midpoint in the current trend where the speaker observes the market's behavior, which can indicate the likelihood of a continuation or reversal of the trend.

What does the speaker mean by 'clear liquidity' and 'manipulation area'?

Clear liquidity refers to areas on the chart where there is a significant accumulation of trades, indicating potential support or resistance levels. A manipulation area is a price region where the speaker believes market forces are influencing price action to a notable degree.

How does the speaker plan to provide updates on bearish confirmations?

The speaker plans to provide updates on bearish confirmations through the free Channel when they start to see these patterns emerge, aligning with the higher time frame bias.

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What is the strategy for identifying a bullish support area?

The strategy involves looking for areas where the price has previously shown strong resistance or has been a manipulation area, which can act as a bullish support area when retested.

How does the speaker use the weekly opening price in their analysis?

The speaker uses the weekly opening price to identify retests of manipulation areas and to observe how the market reacts to these levels, which can provide insights into potential future price movements.

What is the importance of matching the smaller time frame with the higher time frame bias?

Matching the smaller time frame with the higher time frame bias is crucial for confirming the direction of the move and ensuring that the analysis is consistent across different time scales.

How does the speaker differentiate between a consolidation, a fake out, and an impulse move?

The speaker differentiates these terms based on their impact on price action. A consolidation is a period of indecision, a fake out is a temporary move in the opposite direction to trap traders, and an impulse move is a strong directional move following the fake out.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Weekly Gold Forecast and Channel Updates

The speaker begins by welcoming viewers to the weekly forecast and directs them to various links in the video description, including a new Facebook Channel for daily updates and a free Telegram Channel for voice notes. The speaker discusses the gold market, anticipating a potential downward move after a clear retest of a support level. They highlight the importance of manipulation patterns, known as 'Fus' or 'manipulation candle patterns,' and predict a reversal with a bearish pattern. The analysis includes a detailed look at the daily time frame, mentioning a Doge candle indicating liquidity above and a retest of a manipulation area. The speaker also discusses the consolidation, fake out, and impulse moves, and emphasizes the importance of focusing on higher time frames and major areas of interest. They conclude by stating they will provide updates on the free channel as bearish confirmations emerge and wait for smaller time frames to align with the higher time frame bias.

05:02

📉 Analysis of Gold's Price Action and Market Manipulation

The speaker reviews the price action from the previous week, noting how the weekly opening was used as a retest of a manipulation area before an upward push. They discuss the concept of clear liquidity and its role as a target, explaining how support is retested and how manipulation areas serve as buy or sell confirmations upon retest. The analysis moves to smaller time frames, showing how consolidation, fake out, and impulse moves occur repeatedly across different time frames. The speaker emphasizes the need to match these patterns across time frames for a coherent strategy. They focus on the 1-hour and above time frames to understand the bullish structure of gold, noting manipulation areas and how they are retested and used to create liquidity. The speaker concludes by reiterating the importance of clear liquidity targets and manipulation areas for trading decisions, expecting a bearish move for the week as part of a higher time frame reversal.

Keywords

💡Weekly Forecast

A regular update or analysis that discusses the expected trends or movements in a particular market or commodity, such as gold, over the course of a week. In the video, the speaker provides a weekly forecast for gold, discussing potential market movements and areas of interest.

💡Support Level

A price level in a market that tends to be a point at which a financial asset's price has difficulty falling further. It is a level where buyers are expected to enter the market, thus providing support for the price. In the script, the speaker refers to a support level that was hit and retested, indicating a continuation of an upward trend.

💡Resistance

The opposite of support level, resistance is a price level that may not be exceeded by the price of a financial asset. It is a level at which the selling interest is strong enough to overcome the buying interest and lead to a reversal of the price direction. The speaker discusses hitting resistance, indicating a potential turn in the market trend.

💡Liquidity

In financial markets, liquidity refers to the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without affecting its market price. The speaker mentions 'buy side liquidity' and 'sell side liquidity', which are areas on the price chart where there is a significant volume of trading activity, indicating potential price movements.

💡Manipulation Area

This term refers to a price zone where market manipulation is suspected to be occurring, often characterized by unusual trading patterns or price movements. The speaker identifies certain areas on the chart as manipulation areas, which are used to predict future price actions.

💡Retest

A retest in trading is when the price of a financial instrument returns to a previously significant level to test its strength as a support or resistance level. The script mentions retesting of both support and manipulation areas, which is a common strategy to confirm market sentiment.

💡Bearish Move

A bearish move is a market situation where the price of a security or index is expected to decline. The speaker anticipates a bearish move for the week, indicating a belief that the price of gold will drop.

💡Time Frame

In trading, the time frame refers to the duration over which a trader or analyst examines price data. The speaker discusses different time frames, such as daily and higher time frames, to analyze and predict market movements.

💡Doge Candle

A term used in trading to describe a specific type of candlestick pattern that signals potential market movements. The speaker mentions a 'Doge candle' indicating clear liquidity above, which is a signal for potential trading opportunities.

💡VIP Channel

A premium service or subscription-based platform that offers exclusive content, analysis, or updates. The speaker mentions a VIP Channel, suggesting that subscribers have access to more detailed or advanced market insights.

💡Price Action

Price action refers to the movement of prices on a chart, which traders analyze to make trading decisions. The speaker reviews the price action from the previous week, discussing how different patterns and levels influenced the price movement of gold.

💡Consolidation

A period of time in the market where the price of a security or commodity moves within a certain range, typically after a significant price movement. The speaker refers to consolidation periods, which are indicative of a pause in the market before the next major price movement.

Highlights

Introduction of a new Facebook Channel link for daily updates throughout the week with images and thoughts on chart analysis.

Plans to share voice notes on the free Telegram Channel, providing additional content this week.

Mention of the VIP Channel for more in-depth updates, which will be updated throughout the week.

Forecast for gold expecting a potential downwards move, following a clear confirmation of a continuation up from the previous week.

Analysis of the daily time frame showing resistance and manipulation, indicating a likely market turn.

Identification of a Doge candle pattern on the daily time frame, suggesting bearish implications.

Discussion on the retest of the 50% Weck level and the subsequent push down, setting up for a high time frame reversal.

Expectation of a big drop to clear the buy side liquidity, followed by a potential bullish support area.

Emphasis on focusing on higher time frames and major areas of interest for clarity in chart analysis.

Demonstration of how the weekly opening price is used as a manipulation area and its retest behavior.

Explanation of the consolidation, fake out, and impulse move up patterns observed in smaller time frames.

Identification of clear liquidity as a target and manipulation areas as buy or sell confirmations upon retest.

Advice on focusing mainly on the 1-hour and above time frames to understand the bullish structure.

Illustration of how manipulation areas are retested to create liquidity and potential support.

Mention of the difference in movement between gold and US30, providing a quick overview of the unique behaviors.

Recommendation to match time frames to ensure they are in line for a coherent analysis.

Final forecast of a bearish move for the week, indicating a higher time frame reversal to the downside.

Invitation to follow the Facebook Channel, Telegram Channel, and VIP service for updates and insights.

Transcripts

all right hello everyone welcome to the

weekly forecast but before we get into

that there are links in the video

description and this week I've added my

Facebook Channel link which I'll be

doing little updates throughout the day

um all through the week so that's little

updates with a little image just let you

know the kind of things I'm thinking of

when I'm looking at the charts and what

areas of interest I'm paying attention

to and then this week I'm going to be

doing some little voice notes on the

free telegram Channel

that's also in the video

description so that has some sort of

contents this week and then obviously

we've got the VIP Channel as you all

probably know and checked out already so

go check them out if you haven't already

because I'll be updating them all

through the week this week now the

weekly forecast on gold is expecting a

potential downwards move last week you

can see we hit this support level clear

retest and then a continuation up so

that was a clear confirmation of a

continuation up is likely and that

continuation is expected to go to this

area at least I'm not going to go over

everything cuz it'll take too long to

make the video too long but we got a few

good moves last night so this week I

again I'm looking for that full

potential downwards move and that will

be starting at the start of the week so

what we're seeing is on the higher time

frame

this is on the daily you can see all the

way from back here at the start of March

we've had that instant push to the

upside and I've gone over that many

times in the weekly forecast over the

last month or two and you can see we're

starting to hit resistance we're

starting to see manipulation take place

so in my opinion we are getting ready to

turn just like I was anticipating last

week we're looking for that reversal

confirmation and we have certain

patterns to follow that verify that

reversal this week on The Daily time

frame you had a clear Doge candle here

that indicates clear liquidity above

it so when you go down to the smaller

time frame this was your clear liquidity

level running along there so when you

had this clearance on the downside and

retested this manipulation area that was

a clear buy indication to Target this

buy side liquidity so is leaving clear

liquidity on one side and retesting a

manipulation area on the sell side which

is a bullish

support so what we currently got here is

this upwards move cleared the buy side

liquidity here that also

retested this manipulation area so you

can see it retested the 50% of this Weck

so around 50% is where we retested here

and then we got that instant push down

to the downside so on the higher time

frame this is set up for a big drop to

the downside to clear all of this cide

liquidity and that would be a high time

frame reversal so if you understand Fus

some people call them manipulation

candle patterns this is a bearish one

and this is the start of a second one

this is retesting this area taking that

buide liquidity and preparing for a push

to the downside and when you go to the

Daily time frame again what that's given

you is here's your

consolidation here's your fake out to

the upside to collect that buy side

liquidity now we're looking for that

impulse move down over the next few days

to take the sside liquidity and we

likely to go all the way down to at

least this area here which is as you can

see here a nice manipulation area

bullish support area so that' be the

first area I'd be looking for some sort

of bullish support so that' be the first

Target on the bearish move so that be

like that and that being in Gray and

then you just go about like I did last

week and just label up the areas of

Interest so you have the gap opening

price here and then you have support

here you'd be targeting and then the

main one which is monthly opening down

here so we're still focusing on that

reversal on the higher time frame uh

what else do we have to go over now

that's my weekly forecast in the nut

shell I'll update you on a free Channel

um when I'm starting to see these

bearish

confirmations but yeah I'm wait I'll be

waiting for the smaller time frame to

match the higher time frame bias and

then get into the move now I just want

to go over this price action from last

week you have the month the weekly

opening here and you can see that how

that is is used when you drag it along

like that you can see how it retested

that that Weekly opening there so all

this is is we retested this manipulation

area pushed up come back down retested

the weekly open take the cide liquidity

and then continues up this is also a

manipulation area and you can see that

if you go down to the smaller time

frame so here's your consolidation

here's your fake out which is a

liquidity grab and that is your impulse

move up and then you have liquidity

being created and then this is the sell

side liquidity grab retested that area

followed by a continuation up so all of

this area

here becomes clear

liquidity so that is a clear um Target

to aim for once you start to see all

these highs not taken the previous high

and you have clear support being

retested so even if you if you didn't

follow the previous videos um like I

said you see these patterns on all time

frames and you can if you put them all

on your chart it will get very messy so

you just focus on the higher time frame

and the major areas so like here you

have a major one so this was clear high

volume Time created and it had a nice

impulse move so this is a nice clear

manipulation area strong uh confirmation

if it's retested and it got retested

here now when you go down to the smaller

time frame before that downwards move

before that downwards area was retested

you can see you got consolidation here

and that was another impulse move down

takes the cide liquidity retest that and

continues up so this area is also a

clear manipulation area it all depends

on what time frame you're doing so when

you go label it up like that you would

get it a bit neater and you would drag

it along like that and you can see how

that's being used over the next few days

this is your M consolidation this was

your fake out to the downside on a 15

minute time frame and then this is your

impulse move up retested it during the

high volume New York session time so

this is a good confirmation this is a

good retest shows you bullish strength

from that area price goes up I think we

even took a buy from here price goes

sidewards retest it one more time and

then that's when you get the impulse

move up during the Asian session and

even on Friday price comes down to this

area and when you go back down to the

15minute time frame you have

consolidation fake out to downside takes

the sell on liquidity retest that area

and then you start the upwards move once

again it's the same thing repeated over

and over again on all time frames you

just got to match them up so they go in

line but what I do is I focus on mainly

the 1 hour the 1 hour and above will

show you kind of the bullish structure

so as you see here this is a

manipulation

area so you'd have this running along

here this was a new manipulation area so

on this upwards move you can expect to

retest this area we had one retest here

double bottom created there so that's a

clear liquidity Target retested again

and then you got the move to clear this

liquidity and all it's doing is

retesting these areas creating liquidity

on one side and retesting potential

support which is manipulation areas and

then moving price on to take that clear

liquidity and that's that's all gold

does that if you didn't see my how gold

and us30 move and how they're different

uh this is basically just giving you a

quick overview clear liquidity is your

target manipulation areas is your buy or

sell confirmation when it is

retested so hopefully that helps M youve

got any questions I'm expecting a

bearish move this week which is a higher

time frame reversal to the downside

links all in the video description have

a good day have a good week Facebook

Channel page free telegram Channel and

my VIP service in the video description

link

below yeah done have a good week