Cracks Appearing in the Markets Foundation

Summary

2024年4月18日の「Trading Places live」で、市場戦略家のTom Bowyer氏は、先日の市場動向と今後の見通しについて語りました。株価は小幅で上昇しているものの、下落トレンドにあるため、朝の上昇は信頼性がないと指摘。鉄道大手のCSXの好調な四半期決算にもかかわらず、輸送業は弱体化している。経済報告では、失業保険申請が良好だが、住宅市場は弱気で金利の上昇が影響を及ぼしている可能性がある。また、10年債利回りが急落したにもかかわらず、小資本株式は上昇しなかった点に注意を傾ける。セクター別に見ると、航空業界は好調だが、半導体や輸送業は弱い。特に、JB Huntの四半期決算が悪く、輸送グループ全体を引き下げた。テクノロジーは金利上昇の影響を受けにくいと思われるが、最近は弱くなっている。市場は売り圧であり、ボラティリティ指数（VIX）が20を超えると急速な売出が起こり得るという懸念も。長期間投資家は問題ないと見ているが、トレーダーは市場の変動に注意し、リスク管理が必要であると結論づける。

Takeaways

• 📈 株式市場は、昨晩の弱い終値から今朝は小幅な上昇幅で始まりましたが、市場はまだ底をつき始めたとは言えません。
• 🚂 CSXという大手鉄道会社の業績が予想を上回りましたが、輸送業は依然として弱く、特にトラック運送会社のJB Huntの業績が悪く、市場を押し下げています。
• 🏡 住宅市場の弱さも経済への影響が懸念されます。既存住宅販売の結果が注目されます。
• 📉 ナスダックは昨晩大幅に下落しましたが、技術銘柄は比較的強い勢いを保ちました。
• 📊 経済報告は大抵が好調を維持していますが、住宅建設の弱さは金利の上昇が経済に影響を及ぼしている可能性を示唆しています。
• 🔽 10年債利回りが24時間で4.69％から4.57％に下落しましたが、小型株式市場は上昇しませんでした。
• 🚨 VIX（ボラティリティ指数）が20を超えると、市場はさらに急速に売出しが加速する可能性があります。
• 📊 セミコンダクターグループは50日移動平均を下回り、売出の兆しが見られます。
• 📉 輸送業は154ドルを下回り、重要なサポートレベルを失いました。
• 🛫 航空業界は輸送業の中で唯一好調で、大きな上昇幅を記録しました。
• ⏳ 連邦準備制度理事会（FED）はインフレーションを抑制し続ける必要がありますが、経済への影響を監視する必要があります。

Q & A

トム・ボウイ氏は、どのようなポジションをしていますか？

トム・ボウイ氏は、市場戦略家の首席であり、Earnings Beatsという会社の代表です。

トムがホストする番組は何日で何分間ですか？

トムがホストする番組は、木曜日に放送され、約30分間です。

株式市場の先行きはどのようにですか？

先行きは小幅で上がっており、ダウ平均は2/10から3/10の1%程度上昇していますが、トムはこれほどの上昇は底堅くないと考えています。

CSXという鉄道会社の業績はどうでしたか？

CSXは、予想よりも1セント上回る利益を報告し、売上の期待を満たしましたが、株価は少し上がったに過ぎません。

トムが懸念している経済指標は何ですか？

トムは、輸送業の弱さ、初期失業保険請求件数、フィラデルフィア連邦準備銀行製造業指数、既存住宅販売、リード指標、そして10年債利回りに懸念しています。

トムはなぜ10年債利回りが下がったのに小型株式市場が上がらなかったことに困惑していますか？

トムは、10年債利回りが下がったにもかかわらず小型株式市場が上がらなかったことに困惑しており、これは通常の市場の動きと異なります。

トムが今後の市場に注意を喚起しているポイントは何ですか？

トムは、VIX（ボラティリティ指数）が20を超えた場合に注意を喚起しており、これは市場がさらに下落する可能性があることを意味します。

トムはどのようにして市場のリスクを管理していますか？

トムは、テクニカルアナライズを用いてリスクを管理し、重要なサポートレベルやVIXの動向を監視しています。また、ストップロスの設定も重要だと述べています。

トムは長期間的な投資家としてどのような姿勢をとっていますか？

トムは、長期間的な投資家として非常に楽観的であり、桁外れた利益を期待していませんが、市場が今後5～10年間で問題になる兆しは見えていないと述べています。

トムが今後の市場で注目している企業は哪家ですか？

トムは、Netflix、Microsoft、Appleなどの大型テック企業の今後の業績発表に注目しています。

トムはなぜ交通运输業の動向に注目していますか？

トムは、交通运输業が経済の健康を示す指標であるとみなしており、特にトラック運送会社のJB Huntの業績が交通运输業全体に影響を与えると述べています。

Outlines

00:00

📈 市場の動向と見通し

2024年4月18日の「Trading Places live」で、トム・ボウイは市場の前日動向と今日の予想を解説。先日の終値が低かったにもかかわらず、先物市場は微小ながら上昇。しかし、通常は下落トレンドの朝の進歩は信頼性がなく、本日もその傾向が続く可能性がある。鉄道大手のCSXの好調な業績と、輸送指数の低下が触れられた。また、経済報告書が強い結果を示しており、既存の家屋販売の弱さと住宅建設の弱さに懸念を示している。10年国債利回りの変動にも注目し、その影響を分析している。

05:01

📉 輸送業界と航空業界の動向

トムは輸送業界、特にトラック運送会社のJB Huntの業績が悪く、その影響で輸送業界全体が弱っていると指摘。一方、航空業界はU.S. Airの好調な結果により、大きな上昇幅を示した。技術業界は高い金利の懸念にもかかわらず、比較的強い状態を維持しているが、昨日は他のセクターよりも弱かった。半導体グループは50日間移動平均を下回り、市場の見通しを懸念にさせる。

10:02

🚨 市場のリスク管理とシグナル

トムは、長期的な投資家とトレーダーが異なるアプローチを取るべきだと強調。特にトレーダーは、市場のリスクを管理し、サポートレベルとVIXを監視する必要がある。VIXが20を超えると、市場は急速に売出される可能性がある。また、10年国債利回りが重要で、470％のレベルを突破すると株式価格が下落する可能性がある。

15:02

📊 チャート分析と市場の状況

トムは、市場のチャートを分析し、セクターごとの状況を評価。ナスdaq 100は重要な移動平均を下回り、20週移動平均に近づいている。セミコンダクターは50日の移動平均を下回り、売出の兆しがある。一方で、長期的な見通しは依然として好調であり、市場はまだ20週移動平均をテストしていない。

20:04

📌 重要なサポートレベルとリスク

トムは、重要なサポートレベルとリスク管理の重要性を強調。特に輸送グループ、特にトラック運送会社のリスクに注意を払うべきであり、CSXのチャートを分析し、その状況を解説。また、iwmの時間足チャートでのポジティブ・ダイバージェンスについても触れ、そのリスクを説明している。

25:06

📝 CSXの業績と市場の反応

CSXの業績が発表され、予想を上回った結果であった。しかし、トムは技術的な指標が改善されるまで、市場に注意を払うべきだとアドバイス。また、今後のスケジュールやサービスの変更についても触れ、今後の予定を説明している。

Keywords

💡トレンド

トレンドとは、市場で株式の価格が上昇したり下降したりする傾向を指します。ビデオでは、ダウントレンド（下降トレンド）が言及されており、これは株価が一定期間で下落傾向にあることを示しています。これはトピックの中心であり、市場の将来的な予想や取引戦略に関連しています。

💡サポートレベル

サポートレベルは、株価が下落する際に購入注文が集中して価格を支える価格帯です。ビデオでは、株価が下落している時にサポートレベルが見られると触れており、これは市場の強さや弱さを判断する指標の一つです。特に、トランスポート関連の株式がサポートレベルを下回った際のリスクについて語られています。

💡ボラティリティインデックス（VIX）

VIXは、市場の不安を示す指標であり、通常、株価の変動が増加するとVIXも上昇します。ビデオでは、VIXが20を超えると市場はさらに売出しが加速する可能性があると述べています。これは、市場のリスク管理と取引戦略に重要な意味を持つキーワードです。

💡10年国債利回り

10年国債利回りは、長期金利を示す重要な経済指標です。ビデオでは、10年国債利回りが変動し、それが株式市場に与える影響について説明しています。特に、金利が下がると小株主向け株式（IWM）の上昇が期待されるという逆関連性について触れられています。

💡earnings

Earningsとは、企業が利益を生む能力を指します。ビデオでは、CSXなどの企業の四半期報告が出された後、市場の反応や株価の動きに注目しています。Earningsは、投資家が企業価値を評価する際に重要な指標であり、ビデオのテーマに沿って市場の動向を予測する上で欠かせない要素です。

💡セクター

セクターとは、経済の中で関連性のある企業をグループ化したものです。ビデオでは、技術、不動産、航空会社などのセクターが個別に取り上げられており、それぞれのセクターのパフォーマンスが市場全体のトレンドにどのように影響するかについて語られています。セクター分析は、投資戦略を立てる際に重要な役割を果たします。

💡チャート

チャートは、株価の過去の動きを可視化したもので、投資家が市場トレンドを分析するのに使われます。ビデオでは、チャート分析が頻繁に用いられており、各種指標やトレンドラインを通じて市場の将来を予測しています。チャートは、ビデオの中心的なテーマである市場分析において、具体的なデータと見なされます。

💡ポジション

ポジションとは、投資家が保有している株式や債券などの金融商品の数量を指します。ビデオでは、投資家がポジションをどのように管理し、リスクを軽減するかについて説明しています。特に、市場の不確定性が高まる中でのポジションの取り扱いが、ビデオの重要なメッセージの一つです。

💡ディバレンス

ディバレンスとは、価格と技術的指標（例：ポジション）の間に不一致が生じたことを指します。ビデオでは、IWMの時価とポジションの間にポジティブディバレンスが見られると述べていますが、これは必ずしも市場の反転を意味するものではないと警告しています。ディバレンスは、市場分析において複雑さを加える要素であり、ビデオのテーマに沿った分析に欠かせないです。

💡セキュラブルブルマーケット

セキュラブルブルマーケットとは、長期的な上昇トレンドにある市場です。ビデオでは、トム・ボウイがセキュラブルブルマーケットについて述べており、これは投資家が長期的な視点で市場を評価する際の重要な観点です。セキュラブルブルマーケットの認識は、ビデオのメッセージで、投資家の長期的な投資戦略に影響を与えます。

Highlights

Good morning and welcome to the April 18th, 2024 edition of Trading Places live with Tom Bowyer, Chief Market Strategist at Earnings Beats.

Futures are up across the board, but only fractionally, with the Dow leading and NASDAQ slightly behind.

CSX, one of the big railroads, reported earnings ahead of expectations, but the stock market reaction was muted.

Transports broke down below significant support levels, indicating poor performance in the sector.

Economic reports have been strong, with initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index beating expectations.

Housing starts were weak, suggesting higher interest rates may be impacting the economy.

The 10-year treasury yield dropped significantly, but small caps like the IWM did not respond with a price increase.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ all closed down, with technology and real estate sectors underperforming.

Airlines were the best performing group, up almost 6%, despite the overall downturn in the transport sector.

JB Hunt's earnings report was the worst of the quarter, significantly missing revenue and earnings expectations.

Semiconductors closed below the 50-day moving average, signaling a potential shift in the group's performance.

The VIX volatility index is being closely watched, with a level above 20 indicating increased risk of a market sell-off.

Long-term investors are advised not to worry about current market fluctuations, while traders should be cautious and protect capital.

The NASDAQ 100 and other indices are down below key moving averages, with the 20-week EMA being a significant support level to watch.

Tom Bowyer remains bullish in the long term, despite short-term bearish signals and potential for a market correction.

CSX earnings report is discussed, with the stock up despite the broader transport sector's downturn.

The importance of technical analysis in managing risk is emphasized, especially when facing significant market support level breakdowns.

Positive divergence on the IWM hourly chart is highlighted, but its reliability is questioned given the market's close at the low.

Tom Bowyer's schedule for the upcoming weekends is outlined, with potential adjustments to the regular content offerings.

Transcripts

hey good morning everybody and welcome

to this Thursday April 18th 2024 edition

of Trading Places live I'm Tom bowy

Chief Market strategist here at earnings

beats and I'll be your host for the next

30 minutes or so as we uh take a look at

the action from yesterday and look ahead

to what we might expect today uh future

or well Futures right now are actually

up across the board but uh just

fractionally so

about 2 to 3/10 of 1% uh Dow leading uh

and I believe the NASDAQ may have been

uh lagered this morning but they're all

fairly close um usually that's not the

way bottoms are carved uh though

normally when we finish on lows like we

saw yesterday normally we have we at

least go down and put it in intraday low

so I generally don't trust these uh you

know morning uh advances uh when you're

in a downtrend but uh we'll see how

things shap out today uh more and more

earnings coming out um CSX one of the

big railroads reported yesterday after

the Bell came in ahead of expectations

on earnings by a penny beat revenues

stock is up a little bit but uh that's a

a chart that we're going to be looking

at a little bit later in the show uh not

looking good transports broke down

yesterday not just below the 154 level

that I was watching but also that 152

level which I thought was a much much

more important level so transports not

performing well can't really sugarcoat

that one again we'll look at that chart

in just a bit as well economic reports

continue for the most part to come in

pretty strong initial jobless claims

this morning I think we're at 212,000

we're expecting

215,000 came in better than expected we

had the Philadelphia fed Manufacturing

Index that came in ahead of expectations

um we do have existing home sales out

later this morning at 10: a.m. and it

was on Tuesday that we came up with very

very weak um housing starts and building

permits housing starts were really weak

um so higher interest rates for longer

may be starting to have a little bit of

an impact on the economy and this is

going to be

a uh you know a little dance I think

that the fed's going to have to do if

they want to remain adamant against

inflation and if they truly believe

inflation could continue to be a problem

or could even you know begin to

accelerate again I do agree that that is

their first mandate they have to take

care of you cannot let inflation get

away um but I'm starting to see a little

bit more cracks in the foundation uh

especially when you look at that housing

starts number um and some you know other

other things you know through the

economic reports that really make me a

little bit nervous um got a like I said

we've got uh the existing home sales out

later this morning and then we also have

leading indicators both of those will be

out at 10: a.m. eastern uh be a good

idea maybe to check to see how both

those come in and how the market reacts

to it another big story right now is the

10-year treasury yield I'll be honest I

was really perplexed yesterday uh maybe

even shocked to see over a 24-hour

period the 10-year treasury yield drop

from

4.69% down to

4.57% and the iwm didn't budge to the

upside very little actually had a little

Spike but 24 hours apart uh 10-year

treasury yield was down 12 basis points

and the iwm which has been almost

perfectly inverse over the last several

months uh with that 10-year treasury

yield small caps did not use that drop

in rates uh to bid up uh those small cap

shares so uh that'll be another thing

I'll be watching today because all of a

sudden uh that did not trigger uh any

buying in the small cap space anyhow

let's go ahead and take look at uh what

happened yesterday and uh and then we'll

take a look at some of the charts

heading into today so the Dow Jones

indust average yesterday down 45 points

we had the S&P 500 down 29 that was down

about 610 of 1% on the S&P 500 so we're

back down to

5,22 which is a little bit more than 4%

the NASDAQ down 220 points yesterday

down

1.24% and from the high the nasdaq's

down more like 5 5% uh midcaps down 8/10

of 1% small caps down

1.06% transports down 1.7% and there you

can see all of these prior support

levels and there were about five or six

of them between 152 and 154 and

literally just this week taken out all

of it to the downside and notice that

volume really accelerated yesterday ad

line really weak much weaker than just

about any of the other indices so it's

hard to argue bullishly right now for

transports especially seeing that price

breakdown uh yesterday we need a quick

bounceback reversing candle something on

the transportation group uh utilities

down excuse me up 2% that was the big

winner yesterday while technology and

real estate were the losers technology

actually held up pretty well especially

when you start talking about higher

rates um due to possible you know

reacceleration of inflation normally you

would think that would really impact

technology but it had held up really

well yesterday though was an exception

uh technology did actually underperform

all of the other 10 sectors dropping

1.44% in the process real estate though

just continues to be weak uh continues

to weaken further and further and is

clearly now at a 2024 low um and really

the lowest level we've seen since back

in November

of uh late November

2023 uh Airlines this was interesting

because transports took a big hit

Airlines were the best group yesterday

up almost 6% so really big move there to

the upside uh U had reported strong

results U and I don't remember where or

I didn't see where it finished but I

know inaday U had had a really good day

um anyway Airlines up almost 6%

yesterday but look at the truckers JB

Hunt

uh at this point I would probably give

jbht which is a transportation a

trucking group or Trucking Company um I

would probably give them the award for

the worst earnings report so far in the

quarter they missed uh revenues they

missed uh by quite a bit on earnings and

I think they took the entire group down

with them yesterday so if you're

wondering why transports broke down you

can blame it maybe generally on the

truckers and more specifically on JB

Hunt uh semiconductors down closing

below that 50-day moving average so this

is a group down 3.58% yesterday it's

been on fire since October of last year

it's really been on fire for a lot

longer than that but that run that we

had from late October 2023 through

February 2024 it was led by the

semiconductor group and now we are

certainly seeing that change a little

bit um which is okay um you know group's

not going to go up what was it went up

um probably

about I'm kind of guessing here but it

looks like 80% maybe

85% in four or five months that's

unsustainable I mean you can't go up 80

85% every five months so this is a group

that needed some consolidation it's been

sideways consolidating but I think

yesterday was the first signal that

maybe we're going to see a little bit

more selling in that group than what

we've been uh accustomed to um so again

borrowing or borrowing a really big

reversing candle today or sometime soon

uh getting back up above that 50-day

moving average I'm not saying there's

going to be a massive selloff in

semiconductors but it does look like

wherever we go on this move to the

downside is probably best case going to

establish a low in a period of

consolidation that's what you want as a

bull is to sett a low come back up go

through the moving averages and maybe

for the next few months just kind of go

sideways uh worst case obviously is that

this uh move back through the 50-day

triggers a lot more selling ahead and I

think all of that this that I've talked

about which there are definitely more

warning signs uh no doubt about it um

all of this combined with a volatility

index uh that climbs above 20 it hasn't

done that yet but if it does with some

of these breakdowns we could see selling

accelerate rather rapidly so what I've

been saying long-term investors if I'm

in this for the Long Haul and I'm not

worried about the market for the next 5

10 years I'm doing nothing uh I see

nothing that suggests this is going to

be a long-term problem if I am a Trader

however and you want to maintain Capital

you don't really want to ride longs to

the downside or very long no pun

intended um so you got to watch key

support levels you've got to watch that

vix um yesterday I thought was a prime

time to take a shot with leverage on the

small cap index thinking that we were

going to possibly get a reversal 10year

treasury yield hit resistance the vix

was up against 20 resistance um and of

course the 10year treasury yield did

come down there was also a positive

Divergence on the iwm on an hourly chart

so as it's been coming down coming down

that hourly p been going with it well on

that last low yesterday we actually had

the PO turning up on the hourly so the

the iwm was showing me signs that hey

this could be an opportunity um if that

short-term positive Divergence started

to move back or started to um generate

more interest in the iwm and it started

to gain some ground that along with

maybe the vix coming back down from 20

the uh 10-year treasury yield coming

back down from Key resistance after it

made its cup with handle measurement all

of those things were suggesting okay now

is a pretty good time but as I mentioned

the members I I got in but and this was

discussed during our live trading room

yesterday but I was keeping a very very

tight stop I wanted to see that reversal

late in the day we didn't get it we

actually closed on the low so that TNA

position that I had was in and out same

day um and I went back into the iwm and

at this point if that vix closes above

20 I'm going to be out personally I

don't mess with a vix over 20 if it

reverses and the vix comes back down

below 20 and I have to buy in one two 3%

higher so be it what I'm guarding

against is a much much bigger move where

this could evolve like last summer into

a correction of 10% maybe more I don't

have a crystal ball um my signals are

not telling me it's going to be that but

when you get into a period where

expecting a decline and that's what I

was expecting in March I was looking for

about four or five% that's where we are

right now which is fine the S&P 500 well

let's go ahead and look at some of these

charts rather than just talk about it

I'll show you it on the charts 10year

treasury yield let's get a quick update

this morning so right now we are up a

little bit back to

4.61% uh that is up about 2 and a half

almost three basis points um we'll see

whether or not we can get back through

that 470 level

I think and and you can see this 470

level right here we gap down going to

zero in here so we gap down see if I can

get it all on one screen no I'm not

going to be able to anyway here's that

470 level over here so we gap down to

470 the yield drops we ended up coming

back a couple weeks later where did we

test 470 before we then broke down and

started this downtrend now we've come

all the way up we had the cup I've

talked about this the breakout on the

cup measured to 4 66 we closed at 466

and we also tested intraday 470 this is

a big level shortterm it's not as big as

5% but this is the next biggest level

right here at 470 so can we get through

if we do and that means bonds are being

sold now you sell bonds usually and

drive rates higher if you're worried

about inflation you don't want to hold a

4% or 4 and a half% bond if you think

inflation is going to pick back up from

the current level which is around 3.6

3.7 annual rate if that's going back up

you know back into the fours or even

into the fives and you're holding a 4.6%

10-year treasury yield you're not making

any money you're losing money actually

so um it's interesting to watch right

now as the folk as folks have been

selling these bonds and sending the

yields higher watch 470 I think that's

key short-term support I think if we go

through five or excuse me 470 I I think

we go back up to test five and if that

happens my guess is equity prices are

going to be

lower so watch 470 that would be another

clue that would not be good for stocks

um the vix at

20 um let's pull this back I'm going to

go ahead and pull up the

vix so you can see we moved up looks

like maybe we're rolling over but I've

seen this before where it looks like

you're rolling over and then you have

one more surge I need to see some price

action on the stock you know various

indices that also supports that we

probably have topped on the vix in other

words when I see semiconductors breaking

down below the 50-day moving average I

don't get warm and fuzzies when I see

Transportation stocks and while show you

that chart in just a minute when I see

transports breaking down below what I

consider to be pretty significant

intermediate term support it's hard for

me to get excited about the market in

the near term so there are still factors

out there from a price perspective that

I'm really concerned about in the market

in the near term and so if we see that

Vicks jump back up through the recent

high and break through 20 you want to be

careful I've done a lot of research on

the vix when it's above 20 and Rising

the stock market sells off much more

rapidly so again for me it's not so much

worrying about okay I might miss two or

three% to the upside it's worrying about

making sure I don't ride this thing down

for the next 5% or more

possibly so um that's kind of the way

I'm watching it right now so we need a

reversal pretty quickly here or uh

things could uh turn in the other

direction what's going to be interesting

is when some of these big stocks uh like

Netflix which reports after the Bell

today um begins to report so we're going

to have Microsoft and Apple and some of

these big Tech names coming out over the

next couple weeks does the market care

um I don't know we're going to find out

market hasn't cared about solid earning

so far because we have had a really good

run of earnings for the most part I said

told you about the jbht JB Hunt and what

it did to the truckers that was an

exception we've been seeing some really

really strong results but Market seems

like it's already been built in Buy on

rumor sell on news probably heard that

old Wall Street adage anyhow uh let's

move on p500 so we broken below the

50-day and you might say okay that's it

lights out well I would move to the

weekly chart and say we haven't even yet

tested the 20we moving average so when I

talked about back in March moving down

four or five% that's kind of what I was

looking at was the um the 20we EMA as a

possible landing spot for our major

indices on a pullback so we haven't even

gotten there yet so we're

teetering I'm not saying things are

bearish I'm saying yeah we've got some

things that are look bearish

semiconductors going below the 50 day

transports breaking down I mean those

things are definitely not bullish um

clearly short-term bearish but there's a

lot of other groups still holding up

really well as bad as semiconductors are

on the daily chart breaking down below

the 50 look at the weekly chart I mean

we're seeing a little bit of

acceleration but we've probably let's

see the rising 20we move moving averages

1371 we've still got 900 points which

would be another 6% or so maybe 7% on

this Dow Jones US semiconductor index

before we test the 20we moving average

so yeah the daily chart looks bad but

the weekly is the one that I pay

attention to mostly from a long-term

perspective so that's why I'm still

maintaining and I don't have any signals

long-term signals really that are um

upsetting me to any great extent but

that's why longterm I remain bullish and

I know somebody commented on one of my I

think it was either a question that came

into earnings beats or maybe it was on

posted a comment on one of my videos but

someone said wow you know Tom's not

bullish anymore or something like that I

don't remember the exact comment but um

Tom is very bullish I remain extremely

bullish we're in a secular bull market I

said it during the cyclical bear Market

which I talked about beginning of the

year before it ever even happened I said

it during the pandemic in 2020 in the

middle of the pandemic everybody was

fearful Market was collapsing I said

we're in a secular bull market we

bounced back during this cycal bear

Market I said we're in a or during this

cyclical bear I said we're in a secular

bull market and when this end ends we're

going back to all-time highs and that's

what we did um during the correction

last year I said it was just correction

we weren't going back down well I'm

going to tell you right now I think this

is a pullback does it reach correction

status maybe I mean if the if the

semiconductors lose another 7% get down

to that 20we moving average I would say

we're going to be pretty darn close if

not to that 10% level so very well could

happen but unless I start to see

something really change in my under the

surface signals that I like to use I'm

going to stick with what I've been

calling for the last 11 years all of

these pullbacks Corrections cyclical

bare markets there are opportunities on

the long side but if you don't have the

cash because you ride it all the way

down that's a problem so that's why I

want to make sure that we watch a couple

of key support areas and also watch that

vix ndx NASDAQ 100 clearly down below

some key moving averages we move out to

the weekly chart we're almost to the

20we moving average now very close so

the n DX the 20 we is at

17 394 let's go over here and take a

quick look 17394 and we're at

17493 so 100 points away half of 1% a

little bit more than a half of 1% we'll

be on that 20we moving

average the iwm as I said that was

really surprising when we took out the

high yesterday earlier in the day uh or

the the high from the day before on

Tuesday I thought okay that could have

been a reversing candle and we had

tested this Gap resist or Gap support

let me

annotate and

[Music]

um so this is the gap support that I was

talking about and this happens to line

up pretty closely with that 20 week

moving average being just a little bit

below it so if I just look at this right

here you can see that on Tuesday's

action we had actually gone down and

filled this gap which we had not filled

since we gapped up back in uh what was

that around February

13th so we gapped up from February 13th

and never went back and filled that Gap

until Tuesday and we reversed off of it

and we had a chance to post a reversing

Candle on the weekly chart which we

still do by the way

um and we had the 10-year treasury yield

topping or hitting an area where it

could top the vixs in the 19s up near 20

the positive Divergence I talked about

on the hourly chart which I'll show you

in just a minute um but all of that you

can see was lining up for in my opinion

taking a shot with leverage because if

it didn't work I could get out quickly

what I don't want to do is get into the

TNA when the iwm is sitting about three

or four or 5% above a key support level

because the problem is if it goes down

and tests that support level the TNA is

triple the iwm so if you're talking

about the iwm dropping 3 four 5% TNA

that's talking about 9 12 or

15% that's a big those are big

numbers um I didn't go back and

calculate the exact percentage but from

me moving from the iwm to the TNA

yesterday and back out of it probably

cost me about2 % on the trade but the

iwm if I had just held it would have

gone down about 6/10 of 1% so I only

lost about

1.4% um on that trade by having the TNA

and I had my stop set I was not going to

back off of it I wanted to see that

reversal yesterday didn't see it I

wanted to clear I wanted the iwm to

close back above that Gap support

anything less than that I was going to

be out on the iwm and it looked like we

got within about

50 cents or maybe might have even been a

little bit above it I think we were a

little bit above it at one point in the

afternoon and so I was like okay this is

perfect this is going to be the rebound

I was looking for and then of course we

saw weakness into the close and again as

a Trader I don't care if you're long

short if you're losing money you got to

have a stop doesn't matter what side of

the trade you're on you better have a

stop in play and it could reverse I mean

when you get the Vicks up into the upper

teens or up into the 20s or 30s

I mean head fakes are going to be

everywhere they're going to be which is

why I don't like to trade High vix

environments because you think you have

something one minute and 10 minutes

later it's completely different and then

you think okay I'm going to jump in on

the short side and all of a sudden you

get one of these big rallies and then

you're like well and everything you

start to second guess everything you do

I would rather just sit out um and then

I don't have to work second guess

anything so um if that vix gets above 20

definitely keep that in

mind uh so that was the reason for the

trade yesterday on iwm going into the

TNA I hadn't traded TNA in a while but I

thought it was worthwhile yesterday and

did not pan out next up okay transports

so this one I want to

annotate

and we'll also zero in here a little bit

but this was the level that I was

watching at 152 I mean there's also this

level up here to about 154 see all these

bottoms over the last few months 154

these bottoms right here at 152 these

bottoms were more important because we

had broken out of this bottoming head

and shoulder pattern so 152 was the

neckline we went through it on very

heavy volume and continued moving up

first we went back down tested 152 and

then broke out to another high came all

the way back down tested 152 again and

you can see since this point we have

been in this sideways consolidation

range that was a bad candle that is an

ugly candle this is four straight days

now of red filled candles the volume

yesterday accelerated the three previous

days were moderate volume they weren't

light but yesterday we had big volume

and broke down so can't make many

excuses for the transports that was an

ugly candle and it was definitely a

breakdown um again could it rally yeah

Market can do anything it wants but what

we use technical analysis for is to

manage our risk when you see a big

volume breakdown that's telling you

there's a lot of risk to the downside so

whether it recovers from here or not is

a moot point in my view it's telling us

you got to be careful with the transport

group right now especially the truckers

and like I said we'll look at the CSX

chart in a minute um but they reported

great results yesterday and earlier they

were up pre-market

um we'll see where they are now but I'm

not going to trust that move up to the

upside not with what's going on right

now in there in that

space all right um before I go actually

I'm going to go back to that iwm because

I wanted to show you that hourly chart

and that um positive Divergence so you

see here we go down uh Po's down we go

down again po goes down here we go down

to another low po goes lower and here we

are down at a new low with a higher po

now word of caution because if you had

looked at this probably back on April

12th you would have said lower price and

April 12th we would have been right here

you would have looked and said higher po

you would have said positive Divergence

which in theory is correct the problem

is after we had this quick little bounce

we end up going lower and lower and

lower we never got back through through

the breakdown

level so yeah I mean it definitely

showed us temporarily we had a positive

Divergence but the price action never

confirmed anything we never got back

through the 20-day and ultimately what

happened the negative or the positive

Divergence was eliminated we talked

about this with

divergences um on um uh Monday of this

week we had a session an educational

session on divergences and when people

look back they don't see this Divergence

why because it's hindsight and you had

more selling but again if you broke

broke it down on on April 12th that was

a negative Divergence so for those who

think you know that these divergences

always work it didn't work there and may

not work here I mean right now we have

that positive Divergence but what

happens if iwm keeps selling off and

this PO turns back down and puts in a

new low it's going to look like there

was never a positive Divergence to begin

with so even though we have a positive

Divergence you cannot like I certainly

don't like watching that iwm finish on

the low of the day all right let's move

on to the chart of the day uh for those

of you who are new to earnings beats

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I think it'll help in some of your

trading uh let's keep moving on so

today's chart of the day I wanted to

show you CSX so CSX along with many of

the transport stocks absolutely getting

crushed we've seen that death cross

where the 20 crosses below the 50 you

can see the PO is very very weak it is

reaching a level where we start to maybe

see see some prior um you know support

in terms of the PO but we're not quite

there and I'm not getting in front of

this freight train now today we did come

out with earnings let me give you the

earnings number it is 9:30 so I'm going

to try and wrap this up real quick CSX

beat on revenue or excuse me on earnings

per share 46 cents versus 45 cents they

also beat on revenues 3.68 billion

versus 3.65 billion

and right now let's get an update on the

market 3416 now

3457 went up pulled back to a new uh at

least below yesterday's low and now has

recovered back up again here all in the

first minute or two unless we get back

through the 20-day moving average

there's not a whole lot to talk about

here I don't care how good the numbers

are if we don't get back and look good

technically I would stay away from the

stock so yeah we've got a chance get

back up through the 20 with some news

let's see if we can do it otherwise

watch below if we can't hold about $34

on a closing basis I mean that's where

we bottom there that also is where we

topped over here 34 is a big level so I

guess if you're using price support um

you could maybe take make an argument

that this is the time to get in nice

results I would just say transports have

broken down it's not an easy call um and

if you do get in playing this 34 low

just make sure you keep that stop at 34

and he closed below 34 and I'd be very

very

careful all right um that is it let's go

back and take a look and see how the

major indices are doing I see a bunch of

green so far Dow up 150 S&P up 12 NASDAQ

up 20 so on a percentage basis it drops

uh with each of those three small caps

up about 410 of 1% so getting off to a

decent start today uh let's just take a

look at that iwm last minute last thing

we do here yeah I mean it's up we'll see

what happens I mean yesterday we were up

um Monday we were up finish down

yesterday we were up finish down closing

down near the lows so while it's great

to be up um let's see how we finish it's

all about the finish I want to see a

really strong finish I want to see a

reversal I want to start I want to see a

clearing of this trading range I want to

see a clearing of that 20we EMA still

got a long way to go here um I'm

sticking with the market for now and

again that vix right now it's uh just

below

18 if it were to break down back into

the 16s I would start to feel much

better until then I think we're just in

this I don't know back and forth period

and we'll see uh where we end up lasting

10year treasury yield uh still up a

little bit 4.60% % um and we'll see how

that goes and whether or not that

inverse relationship on the iwm uh

continues U because that definitely was

not an inverse relationship yesterday um

I do want to mention also before I leave

um got busy schedule coming up so this

weekend I'm going to be visiting with

family I'll still be doing some work but

I may not have the full complement of

services especially for the earnings

beats members

um the weekly market report that I

normally have written out the big one

that I uh publish on Monday morning I

may simply do a video this week because

I may not have the time on Monday

remember we have a um another

educational series on Monday it's going

to be on trading

gaps um so if you're in that by the way

if you're a trial member at earnings

Beach you can come into that for free so

all you need to do is just make sure

you're a trial member um but that's on

Monday evening so I don't know if I'm

going to have a whole lot of time to to

do the mark weekly market report because

that's a long report um so I may just do

the video this weekend next weekend is

going to be a golf trip I'm out I leave

Wednesday afternoon and I'm not back

until Sunday so we'll talk more about

that the beginning of next week but I

just want you to know ahead of time for

planning purposes there'll definitely be

no Thursday Trading Places live next

week so anyway I'll be talking more and

more about this as we go throughout the

week and weekend and into the early part

of next week but just want to let you

know plan a seed uh that my schedule

will be little tight over the next

couple weekends anyway have a great day

everybody happy Trading