Foresight 101. Designing our own futures | Stuart Candy | TEDxBlackRockCity

Summary

The speaker reflects on their experiences as a futurist, discussing the misconceptions people have about the future being fixed or knowable. They emphasize that the future is not predetermined and should be viewed as a landscape of possibilities. By exploring different futures and engaging in foresight, individuals can make more informed decisions. The speaker also highlights the need for society to build the capacity to think about and influence the future collectively. They conclude by encouraging us to 'befriend uncertainty' and actively shape the futures we desire.

Takeaways

• 🤔 The most common questions about the future reveal an assumption that the future is fixed and knowable.
• 🔮 The most powerful idea in foresight is that the future does not exist yet, and it is not predetermined.
• 🌐 Futures should be viewed as plural, a landscape of possibilities, not as a single fixed path.
• 🌱 Foresight helps us to think about the future as an array of scenarios, allowing us to identify seeds of change to nurture or remove.
• 👨‍🏫 HG Wells advocated for the need to study the future professionally, emphasizing the importance of foresight, even as early as 1932.
• 🌍 Modern society still lacks widespread infrastructure or cultural capacity to think deeply and wisely about possible futures.
• 🎨 Blending foresight with design can create artifacts and experiences that simulate future possibilities, making them more tangible.
• 👁️‍🗨️ A 'civilizational capacity' to think about the future wisely should be developed, distributed across society, not just left to experts.
• ⚖️ The Oracle experience at Burning Man shows how people seek reassurance about their future, even when the future is inherently uncertain.
• 🌀 Embracing uncertainty and engaging in foresight actively is more powerful than seeking definitive answers about the future.

Q & A

What is one of the most common misconceptions people have when asking futurists about the future?

Many people assume that the future is knowable and fixed, and that a futurist's role is to predict the exact outcomes, as if the future is simply a hidden part of the present waiting to be revealed.

What does the speaker consider the most powerful idea in foresight?

The speaker believes the most powerful idea in foresight is the understanding that the future is not singular or fixed but plural—there are multiple possible futures. This opens up a range of possibilities and invites people to engage with and shape those futures.

Why does the speaker emphasize that 'futures are plural, not singular'?

By viewing the future as plural, it allows for exploration of different scenarios and possibilities, enabling individuals and societies to make more informed choices rather than assuming a single, inevitable outcome.

How does the speaker suggest people approach thinking about the future?

The speaker suggests approaching the future as a landscape of possibilities, which can be navigated through scanning for signals of change, developing scenarios, and asking 'what if' to make wiser decisions.

What historical example does the speaker use to illustrate the need for foresight?

The speaker refers to HG Wells' 1932 warning about the automobile, where Wells pointed out that people were heedlessly embracing the technology without considering the societal consequences, such as the rise of car culture.

What was HG Wells’ call to action in 1932 regarding future studies?

HG Wells called for the establishment of 'professors of foresight'—experts dedicated to studying the future to help society make wiser decisions.

How does the speaker view the role of futurists today compared to HG Wells’ vision?

The speaker believes that instead of relying on experts to study the future on society’s behalf, there should be a distributed, socialized capacity for thinking about the future. Everyone should be involved in considering and choosing from possible futures.

How does the speaker incorporate design into teaching about the future?

The speaker combines abstract future thinking with concrete design objects and experiences, creating artifacts and immersive scenarios that feel like they come from 30 to 50 years into the future. This helps people not only think about but also feel what those futures might be like.

What experience at Burning Man did the speaker share to illustrate uncertainty in the future?

The speaker shared an experience of playing the role of an oracle at Burning Man, answering people's questions about their futures. One person asked for reassurance about uncertainty, and the speaker, as the oracle, advised him to 'befriend uncertainty,' illustrating that no one can offer absolute certainty about the future.

What does the speaker consider the ultimate takeaway from future studies?

The speaker believes the most important takeaway is the commitment to engage with future possibilities, to garden change, and to ask what alternative futures are possible. This proactive approach helps people navigate uncertainty and shape outcomes in a positive direction.