It's not a crash; it's just a correction. Remember to stay at Tiffin Coffee level! |Vj dhana||Vinod|

Summary

In this video, the host discusses the recent stock market crash, focusing on factors like geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, rising crude oil prices, and new SEBI regulations. They explain how these events have led to significant market fluctuations, with Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) redirecting funds to China. The speaker reassures long-term investors to stay calm, view this as an opportunity, and avoid panicking. They emphasize the importance of having a value-investor mindset, comparing the stock market to a business opportunity and encouraging viewers to remain level-headed during volatile times.

Takeaways

• 📉 The Indian stock market experienced a significant crash last week, with 13 lakh crore rupees wiped out in five sessions.
• 🌍 Geopolitical tensions, specifically the Israel-Iran conflict, are causing uncertainty and impacting global markets, including India's.
• 💸 Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are withdrawing funds from the Indian market and redirecting them to China, contributing to the market downturn.
• ⚖️ SEBI's new regulatory measures on F&O trading are also seen as a factor affecting market volatility and contributing to the crash.
• 🛢️ Rising global crude oil prices are putting pressure on various sectors in the Indian economy, which may further drive market fluctuations.
• 💡 The speaker advises that value investors should not panic in such situations, as market corrections are common and long-term growth is generally stable.
• 📉 The possibility of a 20% market correction is mentioned, but predicting such market moves with certainty is difficult.
• 🔮 Market predictions are compared to sports outcomes, implying that even experts can't forecast stock market behavior with absolute accuracy.
• 💼 Value investors should see market downturns as opportunities to invest in strong businesses at a lower price, similar to buying a profitable store at a discount.
• 😌 The speaker reassures that while the market may be volatile, those who remain patient and focus on long-term gains can potentially benefit from current conditions.

Q & A

What is the main reason behind the recent market crash?

The market crash is attributed to multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, especially the Iran-Israel conflict, regulatory changes by SEBI, global crude oil price hikes, and redirection of foreign investment from India to China.

How much wealth was wiped out in the Indian market within a week?

Within a week, 13 lakh crores were wiped out in the Indian market over five trading sessions.

What is the impact of FII outflows on the Indian stock market?

FII outflows have significantly impacted the market, with 30,000 crores being wiped out by FII in a single week.

What is the role of SEBI's new regulations in the recent market crash?

SEBI's new regulations might have contributed to the market crash by creating uncertainty and affecting investor sentiment.

What is the advice for value investors during market fluctuations?

Value investors should not worry about short-term market fluctuations and focus on long-term growth of their investments.

What is the potential impact of a geopolitical event like an Iran-Israel war on the stock market?

A geopolitical event like an Iran-Israel war could lead to significant market corrections, with the potential for a 20% or more drop in the market.

How should investors react to a market crash?

Investors should cultivate a mindset that views market crashes as opportunities to buy undervalued stocks rather than panicking and selling off their investments.

What is the significance of circuit breakers in the stock market?

Circuit breakers are mechanisms that temporarily halt trading to prevent panic selling and allow the market to cool off during extreme volatility.

How does the speaker view the role of FII in the Indian market?

The speaker views FII outflows as an opportunity for value investors to buy stocks at a discount, suggesting that less FII presence could mean less market gambling and more stability.

What is the speaker's perspective on the impact of rising crude oil prices on the market?

The speaker believes that rising crude oil prices can create opportunities for value investors as certain stocks become undervalued due to earnings worries.

What is the importance of having a long-term investment mindset according to the speaker?

The speaker emphasizes the importance of having a long-term investment mindset, treating stocks as businesses one is buying into, rather than as short-term speculative plays.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Market Crash: Iran-Israel Conflict and Other Impacts

The speaker opens with a Sunday greeting, addressing viewers who are likely following recent news, particularly the Iran-Israel conflict and its impact on the Indian stock market. He answers questions from viewers, primarily about why the market crashed this week. Factors discussed include foreign portfolio investors (FPI) withdrawing funds from India and redirecting them to China, SEBI’s new regulations, rising crude oil prices, and geopolitical tensions. He emphasizes that value investors should not worry and that market corrections are normal over time.

05:00

🤔 Handling Market Crashes: Value vs. Day Traders

The speaker explains the different reactions to market crashes from value investors and day traders. While value investors see opportunities in market dips, day traders panic and try to pull out. He advises that during market volatility, it is crucial not to panic but to focus on long-term gains. Drawing parallels to past events like the pandemic crash, he highlights how quickly markets can rebound and why investors need to have a long-term mindset rather than short-term trading approaches.

10:02

📊 Investment Strategy: Buy the Business, Not Just the Stock

The speaker uses the analogy of buying a successful biryani shop at a discount to explain how value investors should view corrections. He points out that companies like Manappuram may experience temporary dips, but if one believes in the business fundamentals, they should see such dips as buying opportunities. He also warns against the 'quick profit' mindset of buying shares for short-term gains. Instead, investors should focus on long-term value, investing in companies they understand and believe in.

🌍 Global Market Trends: How to React to Crises

The speaker dives into the uncertainties of global events, such as the potential conflict between Israel and Iran, which could cause significant market corrections. He highlights the unpredictability of geopolitical events and how markets often react in extremes—either with euphoria or panic. Investors should stay level-headed and focus on fundamentals rather than get swayed by market mania. He reassures that despite potential fluctuations, investors need to stay calm and stick to their strategies.

☕ Stay Calm and Invest: Looking for Opportunities Amid Volatility

The final section provides advice on handling future market fluctuations. The speaker advises viewers to keep an eye on stocks they are interested in and to be ready to invest small amounts ('tiffen coffee money') if they see value opportunities. He reassures viewers that the current market volatility is not extreme, and investors should not break their banks over it. Whether markets continue their bull run or fluctuate, there are always opportunities for value investors.

Keywords

💡Market Crash

A market crash refers to a sudden and significant decline in the stock market, often due to panic selling. In the video, the speaker discusses the reasons behind a recent market crash, including geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes, and how it has led to a substantial loss in market value, with 13 lakh crore being wiped out in a week.

💡Geopolitical Tensions

Geopolitical tensions refer to the strained relations between countries that can lead to conflicts or wars. The video mentions the potential Iran-Israel war as a factor contributing to the market crash, highlighting how global events can impact financial markets.

💡Foreign Institutional Investors (FII)

Foreign Institutional Investors are organizations that invest in a country's financial markets but are based outside of that country. The script discusses how FII outflows have been strong, redirecting their investments from India to China, which has contributed to the market crash.

💡Regulatory Changes

Regulatory changes refer to modifications in the rules and regulations governing a particular sector, in this case, the stock market. The video mentions new regulatory measures by SEBI that might have impacted the stock market crash.

💡Crude Oil Prices

Crude oil prices significantly affect the global economy and financial markets. The video discusses the rise in global crude oil prices as a factor contributing to the market crash, impacting various sectors and companies that are sensitive to oil price fluctuations.

💡Value Investing

Value investing is an investment strategy where investors select undervalued stocks trading for less than their intrinsic book value, with a focus on long-term returns. The speaker reassures value investors not to worry about short-term market fluctuations and to focus on long-term growth.

💡Day Trading

Day trading is a speculative trading strategy in which positions are taken in stocks with the goal of closing them before the market closes. The video suggests that day traders and those involved in future options might be more worried about market crashes due to the volatility and risk associated with this strategy.

💡Circuit Breakers

Circuit breakers are automatic trading halts on financial exchanges that are triggered when prices reach a certain decline. The video gives an example of how circuit breakers were activated during a market crash, providing a cooldown period to prevent panic selling.

💡Portfolio

A portfolio refers to a collection of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, and cash equivalents held by an investor. The video discusses the impact of market crashes on an investor's portfolio and the different reactions investors might have, such as pulling out or buying more during a crash.

💡Mental Accounting

Mental accounting is a cognitive bias that causes people to treat money differently based on its source or purpose. The video touches on this concept when discussing how investors might perceive losses in their portfolio and make decisions based on emotional reactions rather than rational analysis.

💡Opportunity Cost

Opportunity cost is the loss of potential gain from other investments when one alternative is chosen over another. The speaker in the video implies opportunity cost when discussing the decision to sell a business at a discount and use the funds to start a new one, rather than buying an existing, successful business at a lower price.

Highlights

Discussion on the overall market crash and its impact on the Indian stock market.

Key focus on how the Iran-Israel geopolitical conflict influences global markets.

13 lakh crores wiped out from the Indian market during the week, with significant outflows from foreign investors.

Foreign investors redirecting their inflows to China, leading to reduced volumes in Indian markets.

Global crude oil price increases and SEBI's new regulatory actions impacting the Indian market crash.

HSBC Securities and ICICI Prudential warn about a potential 20% market correction.

Comparison of market behavior with unpredictable events like sports outcomes, emphasizing uncertainty in predictions.

Value investors are advised to view market downturns as opportunities, rather than panic.

Emphasis on patience and long-term growth for value investors, despite current volatility.

Reflection on market recoveries during past events like the pandemic, with advice against short-term panic selling.

Psychological impact of market fluctuations and the importance of developing a resilient mindset for investors.

Specific stocks like Manappuram and Tata Motors discussed as potential opportunities in the current market.

Criticism of speculative investors looking for quick profits in volatile markets.

The importance of viewing stocks as long-term business investments rather than short-term trades.

Encouragement for investors to focus on core stocks and recognize value propositions in market corrections.

Transcripts

[Music]

hi everyone hope you have a wonderful

Sunday morning that you have recovered

well from your Saturday nights and

you're all probably been watching the

news wondering what's happening

especially the last week and a lot of

you have many questions they've been

asking me on DMs and you've been chasing

daa on Instagram ask these questions so

I thought we'll get some of them

answered now so what is the questions

which are pressing our viewers mind

overall week update sir all this impact

they are asking about why this market

crash so I have some questions and they

have some questions mingled this and

then I'm asking to you Iran Israel war

impact on the Indian stock market crash

what is that and then uh in this week

only 13 lakh CR wiped out total five

days sessions and the FAS in the Indian

market they are redirecting their inflow

into the China so they are reducing

their volume in our India if you are

coming with the numbers on Thursday

trading session only 15 LH cres have

been wiped out from the F only overall

this week 30,000 cres have been wiped

out by the F so fa outflows very strong

so they are directing into the China

this week market crash also come by this

impact on the sebi new regulatory on the

F1 session that also might be an impact

on to the stock market crash and then

the rise in the global crude oil prices

so that also impact and the final one is

Israel impact geopolitical tension that

is the overall impact that they has been

created and another last question sir

this is the important question HSBC

Securities and ICA credential those

Securities they War this is correction

this is not a crash warning for you 20

more percentage all it's near so what is

this yeah this is like you know what the

market players are like the professor in

the class fighting on the chalkboard

some student in the market has thrown a

chalk piece and hit the Professor on the

head Professor is turning around looking

at the class saying who did it so this

is how you're asking me is it because of

Iran is there is it because of sebbi is

it because of this is it because of that

is it because of fed why why

why first of all if you are a value

investor right don't worry if you take

any market right any share and push it

over 10 years spread it is is pretty

much a straight line it depends on the

inclination some grow at 10% 11% 6%

depends on shares and what business

they're into but you can comper so don't

worry about people who should be worried

about are people who are trying to do

these future options who called day

trading those guys will be worried

because they can't understand this most

of those questions are coming from these

guys they a True Value investor it's an

opportunity then the last question will

appear sir 20% correction will be there

yes but then again who's an astrologist

right everyone can make okay looking

back you can say today IPL match let's

say is going on between CSK and Mumbai

Indians you go on say Mumbai Indians

will lose Mumbai Indians will lose if

Mumbai Indians does lose badly then you

think you're a profit if Mumbai Indians

thrashes CSK they don't think you're an

idiot you're just a psychoan right so

that's the way this is no one can

predict what is going to happen because

Netanyahu himself doesn't know tomorrow

morning what he plans to do because who

is pulling his strings nobody knows

right all leaders are not really leaders

they are only people in the front there

are a whole bunch of people standing

behind who decide who influence the

leader into going in certain directions

immediately conspiracy theories will

come out saying there a secret cabal

controlling the world I'm not saying

that we are all influenced by everybody

around us so the same way we do not know

what Iran will do how much they're

willing to push we do not know how much

Israel is willing to push so this kindy

of draw a forecast based on this is

difficult but what I'll tell you you

should take from this 20% news is good

that you heard this news I'm happy you

heard it now let's take your portfolio

let's say your 100 rupees becomes 80

rupees tomorrow morning Monday morning

tonight Israel decides to act on Iran

morning you wake up Market loses its

bottom right pants fall off it's down

since the Nifty goes down from 25 it

drops down to 21 within minutes we have

circuit breakers like what happened

during the pandemic in the market one

circuit breaker 15 minutes cool off

opened again W it fell again second

circuit brecket cooled off then third

circuit Breet half an hour so 1 hour

cool off then again it fell then they

said no trading for the day market is

closed we'll see you tomorrow that

happened okay so let's say the Monday

morning that happens and you see our 100

rupees becoming 80 70 rupes within

matter of hours right on Tuesday morning

when they open the market would you say

no Baba let me take my 70 rupees out

there's two people one I know what

eugenes will do we say I'll take on my

70 rupees the market will go rupes I'll

reenter the market at 40 rupees this is

the best strategy correct I'm not making

a loss sir s I'm pulling it out now

it'll go down further I will buy them

lot of people do not realize during the

pandemic crash like that the market

immediately bounced back within 2 days

if we took the chart and pull out the

chart people who thought this pandemic

will be like at the bottom most for a

long period of time it did not stay

within few

weeks it recover it didn't go back to

all previous Highs but it Rec

substantially people do bottom fishing

we're left at the bottom M right so my

advice is that is one extreme The Other

Extreme are the nervous Jo like a

Perfecto who will feel like oh my God I

cannot take this pain I will pull out

everything I don't want ever go to the

market this is very scary so they'll

pull out and they'll stand in the

sidelines so this is a major reaction

very few will be like huh okay let's see

how much more pocket change I have on my

table I'll buy some more forget that 100

that became 80 that will recover I know

but let's see what else opportunities

are there and let me pick those up very

few will be thinking of that mindset and

that is the mindset you should cultivate

and that is a mindset you need because

manapuram if you take for example it is

seen already 17 18% correction but if

you see over the year it's still up so

that means there's still lot of room in

manapuram from further correction and

there are reasons for those Corrections

which maybe we understand maybe we don't

understand but if you know manapuram

like we discussed in the previous video

yester and you believe in it and it

makes sense to you and you H it for the

long term then you should see

opportunities from 189 it might go to

140 might even go to 100 because some

companies micr Finance like Anand was

saying has corrected 50% so if 200 50%

is where 100 100 possible maybe it'll

happen in 3 weeks time may happen in 3

hours time it may happen in 3 months

time I don't know but if it happens it

happens and it might take 3 years from

100 to go back to 200 I don't mind but

that is a certain mindset to develop

because you're investing in the business

it's like someone is selling a business

like manapuram for cheap so you're

buying the business you're not buying

the share you're not investing you are

buying business someone is selling their

business for cheap like you're Biryani

right you find instead of spending 2 and

half lakhs and starting new Biryani next

door to your house which is running very

well that biryani shop you seeing every

day based on that you wanted to feel

your own Biryani you felt inspired to do

Biryani because of the shop you oning

store suddenly you find that guy is

selling it for half the price because he

has reasons to exit he needs to go back

to his hometown he got married he has to

settle down down he has to take over his

father's fishy business

inak okay wherever so he's saying D

you're interested you've been looking at

my shop if you want I'll sell it at 50%

discount definitely I will go sir

correct you'll be like he doing great

business he wants to cash out he needs

to leave tomorrow okay here take that's

what is the way you should look at

manapur that is the way you should look

at Natco T mot Tata Motors all of them

but the problem is you guys and J are

like no I want to buy this shop today

and now I bought 50% discount and find

some other Joker to sell it for 25%

profit and exit and take that money and

open my own Biryani

store so anyone who look at you will

think oh my God this guy's crazy he

wants to do a Biryani store he's bought

a fabulous Biryani store at discount but

he wants to sell that at a profit so he

can go byy start a new Biryani store all

by himself they look at you and say but

D why are you doing that this store is

next to your house you're happy

everything is good wor but your brain

doesn't think like that so that is why

you have to develop the mindset okay I'm

happy you're reading psychology of money

but but you not only read it you need to

apply it yes it has to be a practice

right so all this news is great this is

all good news for a value investor oh

okay we need to see like this correct F

want to leave okay very good leave India

is I'm in Indian I'm in India I'm not

going anywhere right we are not so rich

we're going to be moving to Dubai we're

not high netw inals like other people

who do videos saying High Network toits

are leaving India okay Baba I'm low

Network in I'll stay you don't want that

Biryani store okay I'll buy that's it

there's enough Indians who need Biryani

from me I don't need to make 10 crores

if I make one CR happy so that is the

mindset you should have so F leave let

them leave right you see those

opportunities and you keep buying if SE

is making a rules harder for fno o good

that means less gambling in the market

less of you gen is going crazy okay

those of you who want to borrow and

still go crazy that's your choice I

advise you against it but if you want to

do do all right but that is also good

news only right and if China going

they're gambling in China that's the

fia's problem because Chinese government

has only said stimulus plan theyve not

really done anything as yet they've

announced ideas so let them do they want

to go let them go we're not going to go

invest in China so no problem and if

crude oil prices go up very good you and

me any only use public transport so

we're okay so companies which are

affected by crude oil those M correct

and if it comes into value proposition

we'll buy them because people still need

to paint their house right people still

need to put fuel in people still like

buying plastic so those companies

suddenly become cheap for a while

because of earnings worries we'll pick

them up okay so that's the way you need

to look at it and as far as Israel and

Iran is concerned I cannot predict right

lot of people are saying this HP

Securities and IC potential is Extreme

warning if the get GS nuclear if Israel

attacks Iran's nuclear sites or they

attack the petrol sites and Iran decides

to retaliate by dropping something on

Israel extreme right then the everyone

will get gets spooked everybody will

retreat in great hurry if that happens

yes Market can go by 20% 25% who knows

that is an extreme M and Market always

reacts in Mania Mania means it'll go to

one extreme oh everything is good

everything is fabulous what are you

saying no matter what Russia Ukraine

everything is factored and facted and

they talk as if like bare Market will

never happen that is one extreme

otherwise this extreme everything is

gone to Hell be carefully sell

everything buy gold only buy gold gold

is the only safe thing correct either

this extreme or this extreme as a value

invested we try and stay in the middle

okay that is overall conclusion yes so

anyway I hope this video was informative

and entertaining don't worry there might

be opportunities again this week I can't

predict it D can't predict it if you see

those opportunities stay in tiffen

coffee ranges please because we have not

entered any kind of major correction

where you need to break your bank or

break your watch chest as some of you

like calling it we are nowhere near that

we are just seeing small fluctuations in

the market volatility in the market as

they say as the market is trying to see

what is happening some of it is greed

some of it is fear it's very hard to say

what is causing the market to move what

you should be focused on is your list of

stocks which you are interested in and

if you see value propositions in that

and you're ready to risk some of the

tiffen coffee money please look at

tiffen Coffee range of investing and

keep going and maybe next week we will

have some further market news like this

on a Sunday morning to talk to you guys

about as you're sipping your coffee and

scratching your heads or we might be

looking at another continuation of the

bull run and we like H everything is

back to normal again I guess either way

it works for us take care out there have

a lovely week ahead anything else you

want to add D no sir okay do like this

video do share it with your friends and

family who might find this content

interesting reach out to Dona on

Instagram his handle where he shared

with you and ask him your questions and

we'll try to get them answered here

other than that nothing else further to

say see you next weekend bye bye