**SUPPORT FOUND!!** TMF Stock Bouncing! Stock Market Analysis | TSLA Stock | BTC | NVDA Stock

Summary

In this video, the speaker shares technical analysis on various markets including SPY, QQQ, IWM, Nvidia, Tesla, Bitcoin, and TMF. They discuss rising wedge patterns, support and resistance levels, and potential market movements based on economic reports such as the JOLTS, ISM, and upcoming non-farm payrolls. The analysis also touches on Nvidia's market performance and Tesla's upcoming full self-driving event. The speaker offers early access to their analysis through Patreon and invites viewers to learn more about technical analysis via their Stocko Academy course, which features a simple and effective trading strategy.

Takeaways

• 📈 The SPY is currently in a rising wedge pattern, which could lead to a bullish breakout or a significant drop if it falls below the support line.
• 📉 QQQ shows signs of a rising wedge pattern, similar to SPY, indicating potential volatility and possible sell-off.
• 🖥️ Nvidia is trading sideways with consolidation patterns, potentially gearing up for a breakout, especially around its earnings report in November.
• 📊 IWM is currently in a support zone and could see upward movement to 225, but a break below support could lead to a decline toward 217.
• 🚗 Tesla's price action is bullish but has faced multiple rejections near resistance levels. A potential 'sell the news' event could occur around the October 10th Full Self-Driving event.
• 💻 Nvidia's stock is heavily influenced by uncertainty surrounding AI demand, and consolidation is expected until earnings.
• 💰 Bitcoin is struggling below key moving averages, and a crossover of the 5 and 13 EMAs could signal bearish movement if it fails to rise above them.
• 📉 TMF is finding support at the 50-day EMA and shows mixed signals: RSI below 50 (bearish) but prices above the 50 and 200 EMA (bullish).
• 📅 Important economic reports, including JOLTS, ISM Manufacturing, and non-farm payrolls, are expected to bring volatility and impact market movements.
• 📊 The speaker promotes additional content, technical analysis, and trading strategies via their Patreon and Stocko Academy, where followers can learn more about their 'bread recipe' strategy.

Q & A

What is the rising wedge pattern mentioned for the SPY chart?

A rising wedge pattern in technical analysis typically indicates a potential reversal or breakdown. In the context of SPY, staying within this pattern might mean a continued upward trend, while falling below the pattern could lead to a significant drop.

What economic reports does the speaker suggest monitoring closely?

The speaker highlights the importance of the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) and ISM Manufacturing data, both expected to cause market volatility. Additionally, the non-farm payrolls and unemployment reports are significant for market movement.

What is the long-term bearish divergence noted in the SPY monthly chart?

The speaker mentions a significant bearish divergence from 2018 to the present on the SPY's monthly chart. Bearish divergence occurs when prices rise, but momentum indicators, like the RSI, do not follow, suggesting potential weakness in the trend.

What signs of a rising wedge pattern are seen in QQQ?

The QQQ chart shows early signs of a rising wedge pattern, similar to SPY, with a potential rejection and sell-off from recent highs. This pattern may indicate a reversal if confirmed.

What is the consolidation pattern observed for Nvidia?

Nvidia is currently in a consolidation pattern, with prices moving within a narrow range between two trendlines. The speaker suggests volatility may increase as Nvidia approaches its earnings report in November.

How is Tesla's stock performing ahead of its full self-driving day on October 10th?

Tesla is climbing toward resistance, with the speaker expecting a potential 'sell the news' event leading up to full self-driving day. The stock has been rejected multiple times at key resistance levels.

What is the key support and resistance for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is currently fighting with its 200-day moving average, which has been acting as resistance. The speaker warns that if the 5-period EMA crosses below the 13-period EMA, it could signal a bearish trend.

What does the speaker suggest watching for TMF?

The TMF chart shows support at the 50-day EMA and SMA, with mixed signals from the RSI being below 50 (bearish) but prices above key moving averages (bullish). The outcome of economic reports, such as the JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing, could influence TMF's movement.

What is the 'bread recipe' mentioned in the Stocko Academy course?

The 'bread recipe' is a simple and effective trading strategy taught by Stocko Academy. It involves using a minimal number of indicators to identify potential buying and selling opportunities based on price movements.

How does the speaker recommend accessing early technical analysis and community discussions?

The speaker suggests joining the Patreon and Discord community, where members can see technical analysis, buy/sell alerts, and participate in discussions before the information is published on YouTube.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Technical Analysis Overview for Major Stocks and Cryptos

The first paragraph dives into technical analysis for SPY, QQQ, IWM, Nvidia, Tesla, Bitcoin, and TMF. The speaker discusses market patterns, such as a rising wedge in SPY and QQQ, noting potential volatility around key economic reports like JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing. The analysis points out bullish indicators, including the RSI and EMA, while also highlighting bearish divergences in longer-term trends. Key support and resistance levels are mentioned across various assets, with an emphasis on the importance of upcoming economic reports and earnings.

05:01

🚗 Tesla and Bitcoin Market Dynamics

The second paragraph focuses on Tesla and Bitcoin. For Tesla, there is a discussion around resistance levels and the potential for a 'sell the news' event leading up to Full Self-Driving Day on October 10. The speaker anticipates a bullish trend but warns about possible rejections at resistance points. For Bitcoin, attention is given to the 200-day moving average acting as resistance, with a bearish potential if the 5-period moving average crosses below the 13-period. The speaker emphasizes watching for non-farm payrolls and unemployment reports, which could impact market sentiment.

Keywords

💡Rising Wedge Pattern

A rising wedge pattern is a technical analysis term that refers to a chart formation where the price action is narrowing between two upward-sloping trend lines. This typically indicates a potential reversal or breakdown. In the video, the speaker refers to the rising wedge pattern in both SPY and QQQ, suggesting that while prices could continue to rise for a short time, a breakdown could lead to significant price drops.

💡SPY

SPY refers to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, which tracks the performance of the S&P 500 index. It is one of the most widely traded ETFs and is used as a benchmark for the U.S. stock market. In the video, SPY is analyzed in terms of its current upward trend, with caution towards potential bearish movements if it breaks key support levels.

💡QQQ

QQQ is the ticker symbol for the Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index. It focuses on large-cap technology companies. In the video, the speaker highlights that QQQ is showing signs of forming a rising wedge pattern similar to SPY, indicating potential price movements and volatility.

💡IWM

IWM refers to the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, which tracks the Russell 2000 Index composed of small-cap U.S. stocks. The speaker discusses IWM in the context of a decade-long bull channel, mentioning that it is currently at a support level and could fall further, presenting opportunities for future rallies.

💡Nvidia

Nvidia is a leading technology company known for its GPUs, which are widely used in AI, gaming, and other industries. In the video, Nvidia is described as trading in a consolidation pattern, with its performance heavily influenced by the broader market and expectations around its upcoming earnings. The speaker notes that AI demand will be a key factor in Nvidia's future market performance.

💡Tesla

Tesla, a major electric vehicle manufacturer, is analyzed in the video in terms of its short-term price movement. The speaker focuses on resistance levels and potential sell-offs around key events like Tesla's full self-driving day on October 10. Tesla's performance is seen as bullish for now, but the speaker warns of a 'sell the news' event if expectations are not met.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency. In the video, the speaker highlights Bitcoin's struggle with breaking above key resistance levels, particularly the 200-day moving average. There is a focus on the technical indicators such as moving averages and crossovers, which could signal either bullish or bearish movements depending on how Bitcoin reacts to these levels.

💡TMF

TMF is the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF, which is a leveraged ETF tracking the performance of U.S. long-term government bonds. The speaker provides an update on TMF, noting that it is finding support at key technical levels (50-day EMA and SMA) and that upcoming economic reports could either boost or weaken its performance, depending on the strength of the labor market.

💡Non-Farm Payrolls

Non-farm payrolls refer to the total number of paid U.S. workers excluding farm employees, government employees, private household employees, and non-profit organization workers. This is a key economic indicator. The video highlights the importance of the upcoming non-farm payroll report and how it could affect market volatility, particularly influencing SPY, QQQ, and TMF.

💡EMA/SMA (Exponential Moving Average/Simple Moving Average)

The EMA and SMA are types of moving averages used in technical analysis. EMA gives more weight to recent data points, while SMA assigns equal weight to all data points. In the video, the speaker refers to the 50-day and 200-day EMAs and SMAs for various assets like Nvidia, Tesla, and TMF, as these are critical support or resistance levels for determining short-term and long-term trends.

Highlights

Rising wedge pattern in SPY with potential for bullish breakout or retest of support, leading to a big drop.

SPY is above the 5-period EMA and RSI is between 50 and 70, signaling a bullish short-term trend.

Massive bearish divergence in SPY since 2018 on the monthly chart, despite current upward trend.

Economic data like JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing at 10:00 AM could trigger volatility in SPY.

QQQ showing signs of a rising wedge pattern, similar to SPY, which could lead to a sell-off.

Nvidia in a consolidation pattern with potential for a breakout, possibly driven by upcoming earnings in November.

IWM finding support within a long-term bull channel, with potential upside target of 225 if strength returns.

IWM's downside support around 217-216 could trigger a fall to the next trendline if broken.

Tesla is running up towards a resistance area of 263 with a possible sell-the-news event after October 10’s RoboTaxi Day.

Tesla has been rejected three times at resistance, suggesting potential bearish movements after reaching a peak of 271.

Bitcoin is struggling with resistance at the 200-day moving average, currently below both the 5 and 13 EMAs.

Bitcoin showing mixed signals with a potential bearish trend if the 5 crosses below the 13 EMA.

TMF finding support at the 50-day EMA and SMA, with potential upside targets at 59, 61, 64, 66, and 71.

Economic reports, including non-farm payrolls and unemployment, could significantly impact TMF’s price movement.

Stocko Academy offers a technical analysis course, with a trading strategy referred to as the 'bread recipe,' designed for easy setup and success.

Transcripts

here we go I got another exciting round

of technicals to share with you in this

video for spy QQQ iwm and then I'll also

put out there Nvidia Tesla Bitcoin and

an update on TMF as well I think the

charts are very interesting to take a

look at I think that you're going to see

a lot of very informative things on

these charts if you guys want to see

these technicals before they hit YouTube

if you want to see my buys and sells the

link down in the description for the

patreon Discord you can go ahead and

choose that for the meantime here let's

get over to py so what we're looking at

for the Spy here is a rising wedge

pattern that we happen to be in and I

said we could stay in this in an upward

trend for a little while breaking up

above it would be bullish staying down

below it we could possibly Trail back

down to support down here along this

bottom trend line falling down out of

that especially retesting it could be

where you would get a big drop if

something like that would be coming our

way we are narrowing downward the last

full month before the election that's

going to be important thing for us we

have jolts and ISM Manufacturing today

we get that information coming out at

10:00 a.m. expect volatility around that

time so be on the lookout for this we're

on top of the five right now the five

period EMA that is a bullish thing the

RSI also up above 50 but below 70 also

bullish longer term if you watch my

other videos I talked about the fact

that we have bearish bearish Divergence

rather massively from 2018 until now for

spy when we look at the monthly chart

but for right now we could continue

upward for a little while longer we do

want to keep an eye out on those

economic reports especially this Friday

with non-farm payrolls and the

unemployment report moving over to QQQ

you can see where we peaked out we be

out this last high that we have here

maybe we're starting to get that signs

of the first signs of a rising wedge

pattern on here so if we click there and

then go across this you can see we just

had a little peekaboo now this is

actually starting to look a little bit

more like what we had for spy so same

thing for the rising wedge pattern you

can see that rejection see where we sell

off Nvidia sort of trading sideways

recently now mind you all that narrowing

could lead to a breakout moment maybe

that happens during the earnings calls

especially during the big Tech earnings

later this month Nvidia will not report

their earnings until November and I'll

give updates for that you guys can also

check that out over at the Discord first

available through the patreon so if I go

over from the cues over to iwm for iwm

look at this on the hourly chart look at

this support area that we're kind of

stuck in right now yeah we fell out of a

little bit but we keep on coming right

back to it I guess you could sort of

argue resistance on this however I still

don't think it's support fully broken we

can't we keep on enter right back up in

here from this peak that we had so

coming down finding support losing it

for a little bit and so still a little

argu I'm going to keep it green for

right now I'm looking for 225 to the

upside if we're able to find strength in

the markets we're going to have to watch

and see if we fall down through this we

could be looking at 217 down to about

216 until we fall down upon the next

trend line that we have down to the

bottom of this within a massive bull

channel that we have that is like over a

decade long like about 15 years long

bull channel for iwm so we can have a

lot of price movement within that we can

certainly fall back down from where out

right now and we'll see if that happens

if it does I think that sets up for the

next major rally so let's move on to

Nvidia for NVIDIA you can see the

consolidation pattern that we have and

uh let me take away the technical just

for a moment you can see just how narrow

how narrowly these prices are moving we

got a little bit of a pop over the past

several days and then Fallen right back

down to support thanks to what we had

for the Micron earnings but still not

quite able to make it outside of these

two trend lines that we have right here

the carry trade bumped us out a little

bit we got a little bit frothy on the

26th and then sold right back down near

that 50 period EMA and SMA and you guys

can check out these prices that I have

to the upside and downside for NVIDIA

that we could potentially move any the

direction these are the prices that you

want to watch out for based on those

movements and you can see how well the

different supports and resistances and

moving averages on here are propping up

those candles that we see right now so

for NVIDIA man certainly getting that

consolidation baller band I guarantee

you we're narrowing quite a bit until we

had this little breakout moment that we

had right here uh get a little bit of

volatility we'll see if we keep on in

that sideways trade up till earnings or

if the market runs or tanks Nvidia is

probably going to be drug around a

little bit by it during that time right

now there's still that uncertainty out

there over just how much demand is going

forward for the AI sector for the

products and services from Nvidia and

how well they're able to uh continue

their market dominance that they have

and show that they have the economic mod

not to be overtaken over to Tesla I once

again well actually this the 15minute

chart but it give such a beautiful view

of what we have on an intraday basis you

can see we didn't quite make it to

resistance over here before selling off

sharply to support and that that support

area by the way kicks off at about 24ish

up here to the upside about 263 is where

we find that resistance got that

rejection there still running up right

now to that full self-driving day on

October the 10th the higher we climb on

this thing especially if we're able to

make it up and catch this previous Peak

that we have over here at about 271 the

more I think that we're going to get a

sell the news event following what we

have are leading up to so shortly before

what we have leading up to October 10th

for the robo taxi day so we're going to

be a watch out for for Tesla still

looking bullish in the meantime got to

make it up over that resistance area

keep on getting rejected was we'll call

it three times so far we'll see what

today brings so moving over to bitcoin

still fighting with the 200 a it's

actually tucked in here inside this

green band that I have for well at this

point in time I put support when we're

up or above it but honestly it's acting

a little bit like resistance right now

there's the 200 day coming across the

screen right here in yellow we

absolutely want to be watching that need

to break back back up above it we're

down below the five the 13 we're closing

up above it but if that five crosses

over the 13 we start to dangle off those

moving averages that is something that

could be seen as bearish you can

actually see the candles dangling here

off the moving averages hanging off the

bottom of them so that's where you get

that bearish movement when you're

actually up above them when you're

riding on top of them is where you get

that bullish movement right now looking

a little bit mixed we got to watch and

see I think this is that big week that I

keep on talking about for non-farm

payrolls and for unemployment now for

the TMF update we keep on finding

support at the 50-day EMA SMA the RSA on

a daily basis right now is below 50 so

bearish but up above the 50 and the 200

so bullish got our golden cross moment

back here you can see the prices to the

upside on this 59 61 64 about 66 and

about 71 to the upside as we travel up

this way in the pre-market hours finding

some strength at about

5930 and uh some of that could be

attributed to what we have for uh jolts

numbers and ISM Manufacturing numbers

that are due out at 10:00 so if those

are sour for us then that is something

that could be a boon for TMF if those

are really strong numbers are in favor

of a strong labor market a type labor

market that conditions uh aren't just uh

falling apart and turning into just a

pile of yuck on the floor for the jobs

Market uh well in that case that either

we show that we're stabilizing for jobs

or tightening for jobs either one of

those things is going to be bullish for

the markets but it's going to be a

little bit of trouble for TMF things

that show further loosening the jobs

Market is going to be bullish or upward

pressure for TMF guys if you want to see

these technicals like I said before they

hit YouTube you want to see my buys and

sells talk to me and my community

members say link down description for

the patreon click that sign up and head

on over to the Discord you can see all

that over there and if you guys want to

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trading for yourself you can do so using

the link for stocko Academy down in the

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remember my friends that learning is

earning I'll see you next video