Key Trade Setups for the Week: Top Entry & Exit Strategies

Summary

In this video, the speaker shares top trade ideas for the upcoming week, focusing on strategies, entry points, and exit targets. Key trade setups include potential pullbacks in Luna, measured continuations in SMMT, and reactive trades in Nvidia. The speaker also discusses ideas involving large-cap stocks like Google and XBI. The video emphasizes the importance of precise timing, risk management, and identifying market shifts. Additionally, the speaker highlights the competitive nature of professional trading and invites viewers to a free training session to potentially join SMB Capital's trading team, even for traders without prior profitability.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker is sharing their top trade ideas for the upcoming week, with a focus on potential trade setups, entry, and exit strategies.
• 📉 One idea on the watchlist is Luna, where the speaker expects a potential pullback due to an extended price action and nearing exhaustion of shorts.
• 🧐 The plan for Luna involves looking for a price break above Friday’s high, with specific entry points and targets based on price action and volume signals.
• 📊 The speaker is also tracking SMMT, looking for a continuation after a pullback, with an ideal setup around breaking Friday’s high and targeting higher price levels.
• 💹 Nvidia is highlighted as a great stock with a tightening range, providing a potential opportunity for a breakout trade above the 50-day SMA.
• 🏦 The speaker is keeping an eye on Alphabet/Google for a pullback and consolidation, aiming for a potential position after the stock resets near its 5-day moving average.
• 📉 The biotech sector, represented by XBI, is of interest due to its sensitivity to interest rates, with a focus on breaking through key resistance levels.
• 💼 The speaker also mentions shorting opportunities in smaller stocks like Leafly and GX, with specific entry and exit strategies based on price action and volume patterns.
• 💻 The speaker emphasizes that elite traders at their firm work intensively to develop trading skills and achieve success, contradicting the popular notion of quick and easy trading profits.
• 💡 The speaker invites ambitious traders to participate in an online presentation, offering an opportunity to join their proprietary trading firm and trade using firm capital without risking personal funds.

Q & A

What is the primary purpose of this update?

The purpose of the update is to share several top trade ideas for the upcoming week, including the reasoning behind the ideas, ideal entry and exit points, and target price ranges.

What is the first trade idea mentioned?

The first trade idea is focused on Luna, where the trader is looking for a measured pullback after Luna's price surged over 100% since early August. The idea is to anticipate a momentum shift as shorts get exhausted and the price reaches extreme levels.

Why does the trader disagree with the initial setup on Luna?

The trader believes that while the price had moved significantly, it hadn't yet extended far enough to justify a pullback being the most likely outcome. They felt that the bearish sentiment wasn't extreme enough at that point.

What is the plan for trading Luna?

The plan involves waiting for the price to break above Friday's high, signaling that shorts have hit their breaking point. Once this happens, the trader would look for an outlier volume spike followed by a downside move, and target support levels at 8 and 6.

What is the trader's idea for trading SMMT?

For SMMT, the trader is looking for either a break above the 5-day moving average for continued momentum or a quick washout below 24, followed by a reclaim of that level. The target is an ATR move near 28 and potentially up to 30.

What is the strategy for trading Nvidia?

The strategy for Nvidia involves waiting for the price to break out of its tightening range, which is currently near its 50-day SMA. The trader plans to go long if there's a breakout above 120 with a stop below the breakout level, targeting 125 as the end-game profit level.

What large-cap stocks are mentioned as potential opportunities?

The trader mentions MU and Google (Alphabet) as large-cap stocks worth watching. Both are showing momentum shifts, with Google continuing to offer pullback and consolidation opportunities for future trades.

Why is XBI considered a focus for trading?

XBI is a focus because it is sensitive to interest rates, and the trader sees potential for a strong move due to its multi-year consolidation and the recent 50-basis-point rate cut.

What is the plan for shorting small-cap stocks like Leafly and GXAAI?

For small-cap stocks like Leafly and GXAAI, the plan is to look for potential shorting opportunities if there are pops in the price. The trader is looking to short these stocks if they push towards resistance levels and fail, targeting a move back down towards lower levels.

What is the main takeaway from the trader’s mindset and approach?

The trader emphasizes the importance of flexibility and adaptability, acknowledging that new opportunities can arise daily. They prioritize setups with strong expectancy and are continually adjusting their watchlist based on changing market conditions.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Trade Setup Ideas for the Upcoming Week

This paragraph introduces several key trade ideas for the upcoming week. The speaker outlines a detailed approach, focusing on the rationale behind each trade, entry/exit strategies, and target points. First on the list is a reality check in Luna (LNR), which has surged over 100% and is nearing an overbought situation. Despite expecting a potential pullback, the speaker outlines the plan to wait for a specific price action before entering short trades, particularly if there’s a large-volume candle followed by a downward move.

05:01

🚀 SMMT: Potential for Continuation

The speaker shifts attention to SMMT, analyzing its recent momentum driven by potentially fundamental news. Following a measured pullback, the plan is to monitor for a breakout above the five-day high or a wash below 24 followed by a recovery. If price strength reclaims important levels, the speaker aims to target an ATR move towards 28, with the ultimate goal near 30.

10:04

💻 Tightening Action in Nvidia

Next, Nvidia is discussed as a strong stock with a tightening range at its 50-day SMA, offering a favorable risk/reward setup. The speaker plans for a breakout trade if the range contracts further and price breaks above resistance near 120. They will enter on a momentum move, with stop placement either below the breakout or at higher lows intraday. Profit targets are set at 125, with the trade managed intraday.

🧠 Momentum Shift in MU and Updates on Google

This paragraph revisits a momentum shift in MU, with plans to trade if price moves above a key level. Additionally, there’s an update on Google's recent continuation and bounce, which was reviewed in detail in a previous meeting. The speaker discusses the potential for a pullback towards its 5-day moving average for another entry, depending on price action during consolidation.

📊 XBI and Sector Sensitivity to Interest Rates

XBI is highlighted as a top focus due to its sensitivity to interest rate changes and multi-year consolidation base. The speaker is waiting for a breakout above its 52-week high (103.52), which would signal buyer strength and warrant a trade. Until then, the speaker remains cautious, observing the area for potential conviction from buyers.

💡 Small Cap Short Opportunities: Leafly and GX

The final trade ideas include short setups for small caps Leafly (LF) and GX. Leafly is being watched for a potential push into the 280s or 3.00 before shorting against the high of the day, targeting a move back to 2.00. Similarly, GX could experience a secondary squeeze on Monday toward the 3.00-3.50 range, where the speaker would consider shorting aggressively back down to the low 2s.

💼 SMB Capital’s Competitive Trading Environment

The speaker introduces SMB Capital, a top proprietary trading firm known for training elite traders, some of whom make seven or eight figures annually. Emphasizing the rigorous environment where traders work hard to continually improve, the firm offers both in-house and remote trading opportunities for ambitious individuals who want to trade using the firm’s capital.

🎯 Free Online Presentation and Interview Opportunity

In the closing, the speaker promotes a free 1-hour online presentation that explains how ambitious traders can interview with SMB Capital, even without prior profitability. The firm looks for individuals who fit their culture, offering the opportunity to trade the firm's capital and receive top-tier training and resources.

Keywords

💡Trade ideas

Trade ideas refer to specific strategies or opportunities that traders identify for potential profitable trades. In the video, the speaker shares several trade ideas for the upcoming week, detailing the reasoning behind them, such as technical analysis of stocks like Luna and Nvidia.

💡Entry and exit scenarios

Entry and exit scenarios describe the planned points where a trader will enter a trade (buy or sell) and exit (close the position) to maximize profit or minimize loss. The speaker emphasizes the importance of knowing these points, as he outlines ideal entry and exit points for stocks like LNR and SMMT.

💡Pullback

A pullback refers to a temporary reversal in the direction of an asset's price, typically within an overall uptrend. In the video, the speaker discusses looking for a 'measured pullback' in stocks like Luna and SMMT to identify profitable entry points once the stock has retraced to support levels.

💡Momentum shift

A momentum shift occurs when there is a change in the price movement or trend of a stock, often due to changes in buying or selling pressure. The speaker mentions looking for momentum shifts as an indicator that shorts may be exhausting and that a reversal or significant price movement is imminent.

💡Consolidation

Consolidation is a period where the price of an asset moves within a relatively narrow range, indicating indecision in the market. The video explains that consolidation can signal an upcoming breakout, and the speaker uses this concept to plan trades on stocks like Nvidia and Google.

💡Support and resistance

Support and resistance refer to specific price levels on a chart where an asset tends to stop and reverse. Support is a price level where buying pressure outweighs selling pressure, and resistance is where selling pressure overcomes buying pressure. The speaker frequently references these levels when discussing ideal entry points and profit targets for trades.

💡ATR move

ATR (Average True Range) is a technical indicator that measures market volatility. In the video, the speaker uses this term when explaining how he targets certain price levels after consolidation, expecting a move of a certain magnitude based on historical volatility. He specifically references targeting an ATR move in the stock SMMT.

💡Reactive trade

A reactive trade is one that is executed in response to certain market conditions or price movements, rather than a pre-planned strategy. In the video, the speaker talks about waiting for key breakouts or washouts in price before reacting and executing his trades on stocks like Nvidia and SMMT.

💡Volume and extension candle

Volume refers to the number of shares traded during a specific period, while an extension candle is a large candlestick on a price chart that indicates a strong price movement. The speaker mentions looking for volume spikes and extension candles as signs that shorts are capitulating or a significant price reversal is imminent, using these signals to time his trades.

💡Small caps

Small caps refer to companies with a smaller market capitalization, typically considered riskier and more volatile than large-cap stocks. The speaker mentions a few small-cap stocks, such as LF and GX, that he plans to trade based on price movements and the potential for short-term profits.

Highlights

Sharing top trade ideas for the upcoming week, including reasoning, ideal entry and exit scenarios, and targets.

First idea involves a pullback in Luna (LNR), which surged over 100% after breaking out in early August above its 200-day SMA.

Shorts are nearing exhaustion in Luna, signaling a potential momentum shift, but the speaker disagrees with this setup as an A+ opportunity.

The speaker is waiting for a volume extension candle to indicate a potential short entry in Luna, targeting a move to $6 or $8.

Next idea involves continuation in SMMT after a reset in price action following a fundamental news-driven surge.

SMMT plan includes waiting for consolidation to create a cleaner resistance zone and entering on a breakout above Friday’s high.

Nvidia is the third idea, focusing on reactive trades as the stock’s range tightens near the 50-day SMA, creating a skewed risk-reward opportunity.

Nvidia strategy involves entering a breakout trade above $120 with stop below the breakout level, aiming for a $125 target.

Mu (Micron) shows a double bottom forming, signaling a potential turning point in momentum, similar to Google.

The speaker emphasizes Google’s continuation and bounce after a detailed review in an inside access meeting.

XBI (biotech sector ETF) is highly sensitive to interest rates and has been consolidating in a multi-year base, with a key breakout level at $103.52.

Leafly (LFLY) is a potential short opportunity if it pushes toward $3 but fails, targeting a move back down to $2.

GX (GX Acquisition) is another small-cap pump-and-fail candidate, with a short setup targeting a return to the low $2s.

Speaker provides bonus large-cap ideas, emphasizing the importance of adapting watch lists based on new names and changing setups.

Encouragement for traders to share their own watchlists and ideas, creating a collaborative environment.

Transcripts

traders in this update I am going to be

sharing several of my top ideas for the

upcoming week specifically I'm going to

be sharing the why behind the potential

trade idea and my ideal entry and exit

scenarios and targets so let's get right

into it so the first idea on my watch

list is a reality check in Luna all

right looking for a measured pullback in

L NR TI a l NR so the idea what is the

idea

here look up well over 100% um after

breaking out back in early August above

its 200 SMA um and nearing a turning

point here as price reaches fairly

extreme levels um almost over an 80 RSI

um nearing a momentum shift as shorts

exhaust and price gets extended however

not quite there yet um I did disagree

with this setup and opportunity and idea

coming into Friday being categorized by

mania's A+ opportunities why simply put

I just I just didn't think that price

had extended significantly enough um to

the point where a significant pullback

became the most likely outcome and you

had that scooter scroll that didn't

exist yet for me but ideally that

extreme bearish sentiment that exists

and has existed for multiple days now

will result in that A+ setup and ideally

a blowoff parabolic move now um what is

the plan Here For Me So the plan is I'd

really like to see price break above

Friday's High I'd love to see us push

above Friday's High um and ideally you

get that skip skip action of you know

big ticks come some bigger ticks um

signaling that shorts have finally

reached uh you know their Breaking Point

their threshold Line in the Sand um and

once that exchange occurs um you know

that's often signaled by an outlier

volume and extension candle um and then

an engulfing move to the downside and

lower confirms the backside that's when

I'd be looking to get short versus the

high of day or the previous uh lower

high after bull DRP um with support of

eight and then six with support of eight

and then six being my targets if we go

down to a lower time frame you can see

coming back into previous breakdown and

potential support Zone and then the

previous area of resistance which is now

turned into potential support for a

pullback six so targeting those two

areas um as profit targets smmt is the

next idea looking for continuation in

smmt if we zoom out um overall uh

obviously this was fantastic potentially

you know arguably fundamentally changing

news um that resulted in uh the runup

here in mmt um which has now been

followed by a really nice measured um

pull back and and really just reset a

price action um so the idea here is

looking for a break back above that 5day

um and for momentum to continue to the

upside So the plan the plan would be

ideally we get another day or so of

consolidation um setting up a cleaner

era of resistance um uh in which case um

would be a reactive trade if we broke

above that um alternatively we get a

wash uh below 24 um early this week we

get a quick wash below 24 and then

immediately uh reclaims that area um and

tests Friday's High confirming a higher

low and that's when I'll be ready to get

long for a hold uh near or above

Friday's high with a stop low of day um

and should that relative strength and

price action unfold as planned and

really provide that clean entry I'll be

targeting an ATR move uh which would put

it near 20 8 um followed by kind of a

end end game Target of around near 30

for me um and then we have tightening

action in Nvidia zoom out again onto the

daily um really straightforward reactive

idea here in Nvidia which is obviously

just a great stock has been a great

stock all year to trade um and

considering its tightening range um

right at its 50-day SMA the contraction

in the range uh just allows for a skew

to risk award if the range continues to

contract before picking a Direction

finally um and so the plan obviously is

just a reactive trade very

straightforward if the range does

continue to contract for another day or

two uh followed by a breakout in price

and volume of course um above resistance

above

120 I'll just be longing that breakout

momentum entry on the breakout stop uh

below the breakout level if you got a

nice clean consolidation break intraday

that aligns across multiple time frames

um on at that 120 area as well um

alternatively a high or low stop

depending on the setup intraday of

course um but after that uh you know a

trade like this is just simply going to

be managed more intraday focused uh

higher lows on A5 minute time frame to

use uh as a trail um and then taking

profits on extensions on higher highs

extensions from vwap um essentially

targeting 125 uh previous uh support now

turned into potential resistance on a

bounce so 125 end game Target and then

just a couple bonus uh large cap ideas

as well before we go over to small caps

and from last week's watch list double

bottom still shaping up very nicely and

obviously we have a clear potential

Turning Point momentum shift in mu now

going forward so if we can get back

above that level same plan as last week

Google

fantastic follow through in alphabet and

Google uh since I I last spoke about it

um really nice continuation and bounce

uh as this is one I discussed and really

reviewed my trading in great detail in

the inside access meeting um so for

those of you that joined um and and

missed that meeting go back have another

listen and um and and and check it out

to to be able to really dissect this

play and understand what my thought was

um it remains a focus for a pullback

consolidation going forward as well if

we're able to pull back towards its 5day

consolidate uh reset breathe a little

bit and then I'd look uh to potentially

add or initiate a position depending on

what I've done up until that point um

but I think we'll offer another

opportunity xbi xbi is another one um

xbi it's definitely a top focus of mine

from now on obviously given the the 50

basis point cut how sensitive the sector

is to interest rates um and obviously

it's multi-year consolidation base even

zooming out to a three-year um it's set

up extremely well beautiful base

consolidating high end of the range

right by its 52 we highs 10352 I believe

10352 so for now I'm sitting we failed

multiple uh attempts at that area um so

I'm sitting back for now waiting until

we can clear that with some conviction

um and and really when I see a sign that

buyers um have already stepped up have

taken us above that area and are firmly

in control and then I'd look to get

involved again um and then lastly a

couple small caps just some Pops to

short in these names uh let me put on

vwap rather uh first one's going to be

LF l

y in Leafly so Leafly straightforward

very unlikely I think um but I'm only

looking at a potential trade for Monday

I don't want this to um you know present

itself as a liquidity trap potentially

for a squeeze uh further than I think so

ideally first day would be Monday I'd be

looking for a push into 280s up towards

three towards this developing two-day

vwap push fail um I'd be short against

the high of day targeting a move back

down to two's very straightforward trade

and then very similar to that in GX aai

another pump uh and and failed move on

Friday similarly you know if GX can have

a a bit of a secondary Palm and and

squeeze uh on Monday towards 3 to 350s

uh and fail um I'd look to be fairly

aggressive short for a move back down

towards the low twos but again it's it's

fairly unlikely um but always good to

have aert set because you never know um

so those are my top ideas coming into

the week of course new names pop up

every day um and U my attention and

priorities can change uh depending on

what I uh really perceive those setups

to be and and what my expectancy is but

coming into the week these are top ideas

let me know what you're watching uh I

love it when you guys drop those uh in

in the comment section along with your

plans ideas thoughts um so let me know

what's on your watch list uh what your

thoughts are your plans are uh maybe

I'll add that to my watch list too and

good luck for the week and I'll see you

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