Will Indonesia Join the U.S or China?
Summary
TLDRIndonesia, strategically located between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, is a key player in global maritime trade. The US and China are vying for influence, with Indonesia becoming Southeast Asia's largest economy and the fourth most populous nation. Its military is significant, and recent defense spending increases have heightened regional interest. Indonesia's history of colonialism and its struggle for independence have shaped its cautious approach to alliances. As a major economy and a member of ASEAN, it seeks a balance between economic development and security, wary of aligning too closely with any superpower.
Takeaways
- ๐ Indonesia is strategically located between the Indian and Pacific Oceans and controls a crucial maritime choke point.
- ๐น Both the US and China are investing heavily to gain influence in Indonesia due to its economic and geopolitical significance.
- ๐ Indonesia has quietly become the largest economy in Southeast Asia and the fourth most populous country in the world.
- ๐ In 2023, Indonesia approved a 20% increase in defense spending, highlighting its growing military capabilities.
- ๐ข The Strait of Malacca, where a significant portion of China's trade passes through, lies in Indonesian waters and is a focal point for competing investments.
- ๐ The US's 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' strategy, announced in 2017, aims to counter China's influence and includes partnerships with Japan, India, and Australia.
- ๐๏ธ Historically, Indonesia has been wary of foreign alliances due to its experiences with colonialism and the Cold War.
- ๐ Indonesia has a history of playing major powers against each other for its benefit, as seen during the Cold War with the US and the Soviet Union.
- ๐ The country's military has been skeptical of China due to past conflicts and the 1965 coup attempt, which was blamed on communism.
- ๐ง Indonesia is modernizing its military and increasing defense spending, but it remains neutral and does not want to align too closely with any major power.
Q & A
What is the strategic importance of Indonesia's geographical location?
-Indonesia is strategically located between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, controlling a narrow choke point where a significant portion of global maritime trade passes through. This makes it a key player in the balance of power dynamics in the region.
Why are the United States and China investing in Indonesia?
-Both the United States and China are investing in Indonesia to gain its favor as an ally. Indonesia's strategic location, large economy, and significant population make it a valuable partner that could tip the regional balance of power.
What is the 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' strategy mentioned in the script?
-The 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' strategy is a U.S. policy aimed at maintaining a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region, supporting American jobs, and promoting economic growth. It was announced by President Trump in 2017 and involves cooperation with Japan, India, and Australia.
How does the script describe Indonesia's economy in the context of Southeast Asia?
-Indonesia is described as the biggest economy in Southeast Asia and the fourth most populous country in the world, highlighting its importance in the global economic landscape.
What is the significance of the Strait of Malacca for Indonesia?
-The Strait of Malacca is significant for Indonesia as it lies in Indonesian waters and is a crucial passage for two-thirds of China's trade volume, making it a focal point for competing investments from the West.
Why did the United States support Indonesia's independence movement after World War II?
-The United States supported Indonesia's independence to counter Soviet influence and played a major role in pressuring the Netherlands to withdraw their colonial troops, seeing the region as strategically important during the Cold War.
What was the impact of the CIA's involvement in Indonesia during the 1950s?
-The CIA's involvement in supporting a rebellion in Indonesia in the 1950s was a major blunder, as they misunderstood the internal politics and ended up fighting against their own government's interests, which eventually led to a shift in U.S. policy to supply weapons and improve relations.
How did Indonesia benefit from the Cold War dynamics between the US and the Soviet Union?
-Indonesia benefited from the Cold War by playing both the US and the Soviet Union against each other, receiving substantial military and economic aid from both sides, which allowed it to advance its territorial claims and strengthen its military.
What is the role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Indonesia's foreign policy?
-ASEAN plays a significant role in Indonesia's foreign policy by providing a platform for collective voice and pursuing national interests independently without fear of external influences. It also helps maintain a balance of power in the region.
Why is Indonesia increasing its defense spending and modernizing its military?
-Indonesia is increasing its defense spending and modernizing its military to maintain its territorial integrity, respond to extremist groups within the country, and to hedge against potential security threats while maintaining a neutral stance in the current geopolitical landscape.
How does Indonesia's historical experience with colonialism and communism influence its current foreign policy?
-Indonesia's historical experiences with colonialism and communism have made it skeptical of external influences andๅพๅไบ maintaining a neutral stance in its foreign policy. This history has shaped its approach to balancing relations with major powers like the US and China.
Outlines
๐ Geopolitical Significance of Indonesia
Indonesia's strategic location between the Indian and Pacific Oceans makes it a crucial maritime trade route, with both the US and China investing heavily to gain its favor. As the largest economy in Southeast Asia and the fourth most populous country, Indonesia's military strength and economic potential are significant. The US's 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific' strategy, announced in 2017, aims to counter China's influence, and both superpowers are vying for Indonesia's support. Indonesia's history of colonialism and its struggle for independence have shaped its cautious approach to foreign alliances. The country's military and economic developments are closely watched as they indicate its potential alignment in the current geopolitical landscape.
๐ต๏ธโโ๏ธ US and Soviet Union's Historical Influence on Indonesia
The US played a pivotal role in Indonesia's struggle for independence by pressuring the Netherlands to withdraw colonial troops. Despite initial support, the US's actions, including CIA involvement in a rebellion and misinterpretation of Indonesia's internal politics, led to a complex relationship. The Soviet Union also provided substantial military aid to Indonesia, contributing to its power dynamics. The 1965 coup attempt and the subsequent anti-communist purge further shaped Indonesia's foreign policy, leading to a period of military rule and suspicion towards external influences. These historical events have left a lasting impact on Indonesia's approach to great power rivalry and its pursuit of a balanced foreign policy.
๐ Indonesia's Military and Economic Diplomacy
Indonesia has leveraged its strategic position to receive military aid from both the US and the Soviet Union, using this to advance its territorial claims and military campaigns. The country's military has been skeptical of China due to historical events, including a perceived communist threat. Despite this, Indonesia has maintained a delicate balance by engaging with both the US and China, avoiding alignment with either power to preserve its sovereignty. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been a platform for Indonesia to pursue its national interests without external interference, reflecting its continued caution in the face of new geopolitical dynamics.
๐ Balancing Act: Indonesia's Foreign Policy in the New Cold War
Indonesia finds itself in a unique position amidst the new Cold War between the US and China. While it supports the US's Indo-Pacific strategy, it is also cautious not to antagonize China. The country's foreign policy focuses on maintaining a dynamic equilibrium, avoiding strategic alignment to prevent a military buildup in Southeast Asia. Indonesia's military modernization efforts reflect its desire to remain neutral, accepting Western aid without becoming overly dependent. The country's economic and security interests are balanced between the US and China, with Indonesia seeking to maintain its territorial integrity and neutrality in the face of growing regional tensions.
๐ก๏ธ Indonesia's Military Modernization and Neutrality
Indonesia's military modernization efforts, known as the Minimum Essential Force plan, involve purchasing new aircraft and frigates while keeping defense spending low. The country's military equipment is diverse, sourced from multiple countries, allowing Indonesia to claim neutrality in its modernization drive. However, this diversity also increases maintenance and operational costs. Indonesia's ingrained neutrality and lack of a major diaspora population contribute to its lower profile in geopolitical news. The country's strategy is to maintain a balance between the US and China, accepting aid without aligning too closely with either. This approach is seen as crucial for maintaining peace in the region, with Indonesia's neutrality being a key factor in the ongoing security competition.
Mindmap
Keywords
๐กIndonesia
๐กMaritime trade
๐กGeopolitical competition
๐กStrait of Malacca
๐กASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)
๐กFree and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy
๐กDefense spending
๐กSwing state
๐กNeutrality
๐กEconomic development
๐กMilitary modernization
Highlights
Indonesia's strategic location connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans, influencing 60% of global maritime trade.
Both the United States and China are investing heavily to gain Indonesia's favor as an ally.
Indonesia has become the largest economy in Southeast Asia and the fourth most populous country in the world.
In 2023, Indonesia approved a 20% increase in defense spending, highlighting its growing military strength.
The Strait of Malacca, crucial for China's trade, lies partially in Indonesian waters and is a focus for Western investments.
The United States' 'free and open Indo-Pacific' strategy aims to support jobs and investments, with Indonesia as a key partner.
China views the US strategy as an attempt to contain its growth rather than promoting free trade.
Indonesia's cooperation is vital for the success of the US strategy in the region.
Indonesia is the world's third-largest democracy and is considered a 'swing state' with unpredictable allegiances.
ASEAN, including Indonesia, forms the fifth largest economy with a combined population of 662 million.
Indonesia's history as a former Dutch colony and its struggle for independence shaped its cautious foreign policy.
During the Cold War, Indonesia played the US and the Soviet Union against each other for its benefit.
Indonesia's military, with significant influence, has been historically suspicious of China due to past conflicts.
Indonesia's foreign policy aims for a dynamic equilibrium between regional powers to maintain its sovereignty.
The majority of Indonesia's military equipment comes from Western countries, not China.
China's economic engagement with Indonesia has grown significantly in recent years.
Indonesia seeks to maintain neutrality and balance between accepting Western aid and Chinese economic ties.
Indonesia's military modernization efforts aim to increase its defense capabilities without aligning with any major power.
Indonesia's approach to its relationships with global powers may contribute to world peace through its neutrality.
Transcripts
physically connecting the Indian and
Pacific Ocean is the nation of Indonesia
where 60% of the world's Maritime trade
passes through both the United States
and China are investing billions of
dollars competing for Indonesia's
affection trying to win them over as an
ally and bestie because if either side
is able to win Indonesia over it would
tip the balance of power wildly in their
favor this is because they've quietly
become the biggest economy in southeast
Asia and the fourth most populous
country in the entire world World they
have a massive military of 400,000
personnel as of 2023 the same year if
they approved a 20% increase a hike to
the defense spending this narrow choke
point is where 2third of China's entire
trade volume sails through the Western
entrance to the straight of Mala lies in
Indonesian Waters but it's also home to
competing investments from the West
here's how the United States free and
open indopacific strategy document puts
it quote this region supports more than
3 million American jobs and is the
source of nearly 900 billion in US
foreign direct investments in the years
ahead as the region drives as much as
2third of global economic growth its
influence will only grow as will its
importance to the United States when
this strategy was first officially
announced by US president Trump in
November 2017 it sent shock waves
through Chinese defense and academic
circles it wasn't a cowboy unilateral
move it was done in partnership with
Japan India and Australia from China's
perspective their AC academics have
written and debated this plan but many
of them suspect it's not about free and
open trade but they believe it's instead
about containing China can't it be a bit
of both either way Indonesia and
cooperation from the rest of the oan
countries are a major part of this
strategy's success or failure what all
this boils down to is that Washington
and Beijing are in competition with each
other to become friends with Indonesia
they're even the world's third largest
democracy and yet foreign policy experts
are calling Indonesia one of the last
remaining swing states in the global
Community a swing state is where support
for one side is unpredictable Indonesia
is a major part of the 10 member
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
or aan aan when combined as a whole they
rank as the fifth largest economy with a
combined population of 662 million
people and a GDP of $1 trillion or 6.5%
of the global GDP they're kind of a big
deal for context NATO has around 900
million people under their umbrella are
there any clues in Indonesia's unique
history that give us a hint as to
whether they'll choose to align with the
United States or China what are the
reasons Indonesia is suspicious of any
potential us or Chinese Alliance why is
the country increasing their spending on
defense and modernizing their military
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private you give them the liver but they
still ask for the heart this is spice
Indonesia was one of the original Spice
Islands which made them incredibly
valuable to colonialists historically
Indonesia was under Dutch colonial rule
for in 3 and A2 centuries between 1816
and about 1941 where they constructed
roads Bridges oil infrastructure and
helped establish a legal system and
governance it was also extremely
oppressive and entirely based on
extracting resources from Indonesia they
forced their people into labor and
suppressed their cultural identities to
prevent any form of rebellion while the
Dutch profited off of Indonesia it was
uh it was pretty ugly then there was a
brief Japanese Occupation during World
War II that kicked the Dutch out after
which the Dutch tried to return to
reclaim their old territory but
Indonesia's people had a taste of not
being under Dutch Rule and they liked it
a rising nationalist movement in the
country challenged the Dutch in 1945
Indonesia declared independence which
they started to fight for through
combination of diplomatic negotiations
armed resistance the Indonesian war for
independence was from 1945 to 1949 and
it involved 240,000 Dutch soldiers who
participated in the war of which 6,200
were Kia and an estimated 2 to 100,000
total Indonesians lost their lives once
the United States realized how important
this region was to countering the
Soviets they played a major role in
pressuring the Netherlands to withdraw
their colonial troops in late 1940s by
threatening to cut off Marshall Plan Aid
if they refused essentially millions and
millions of dollars that worked and the
Dutch left fed out on American sea lift
finally Indonesia gained their hard
fought for independence and sovereignty
in 1949 one of indes I's early Prime
Ministers Muhammad hat instantly
recognized his nation's predicament as
the Cold War started he said quote
Indonesia is rowing between two reefs
meaning they're in between two great
Powers the US and the Soviet Union they
needed to choose their foreign policy
carefully American Diplomat of the 1960s
George Kenan stated that Indonesia was
the most crucial issue at the moment in
our struggle with the Kremlin from
America's point of view from the 1940s
to the 1960s he sat back and watched as
communism gained ground in Korea
Indochina and Mainland China from their
point of view where communism went so
too did authoritarian dictators the big
concern for them was that Indonesia
would follow suit as early as 1955 there
was a large American defense program
training and educating Indonesian
soldiers at Fort Levenworth Kansas
couldn't be more different than
Indonesia major Richard WB hotton wrote
an outstanding publication titled
Jakarta knows best for the US Army's
command and general staff College he
stated US military assistance to
Indonesia began almost as soon as the
ink was dry on the Netherlands transfer
of sovereignty in December 1949 by June
1st 1950 Indonesia had already received
equipment from the United States
including 50 Jeeps 21,000 rifles 1,000
machine guns 500 gas masks and
ammunition for all the above shortly
after that they received armored
vehicles the rice has become porridge
but us diplomacy in Indonesia at the
time was really one of the most bizarre
Fubar stories I think I've ever heard
because a few years later in 1957
Indonesia faced a rebellion from two of
their military commanders then the
American Central Intelligence Agency the
CIA were quick to support that rebellion
and provide Aid to them they did this
because they incorrectly assessed the
situation on the ground and
misunderstood the internal politics
inside Indonesia you see they thought
that Indonesia and their military was
sympathetic to communist M they were
unable to view the situation in terms
other than that narrow black and white
dichotomy of democracy versus communism
there was an internal disagreement with
the head of the CIA Allan dues who was
at odds with the US military leadership
you see Allen wanted to take covert
action while the US military was
advising not to do that so you had the
US diplomats at the embassy in Indonesia
advising the Indonesian military and
government in their fight against the
Rebels the very same Rebels who the CIA
was advising and aiding yes the US
government was working at Cross purposes
actually fighting against themselves
their covert right arm wasn't talking to
the rest of their overt body in response
to the Rebellion the first President of
Indonesia sir Carno sir Carno did
several key things he declared marshal
law and nationalize all the remaining
Dutch assets in Indonesia taking control
of them now the CIA mistook that act of
nationalizing of all the assets under
government control as a communist move
because they didn't understand and the
nation's internal politics it was
actually a move against their former
colonial power not a communist one these
actions had an ironic effect though
because they increased the power and
influence of the Indonesian Army which
in turn weakened the pki Communists in
the country in hindsight the CIA misread
the situation and was pretty major
blunder the CIA supported rebellion was
crushed by Sarno and the Indonesian Army
the CIA realized the mistake and tried
to remedy it not sure what kind of card
you send that says I'm sorry for trying
to overthrow your government apparently
the weapons card because America began
supplying weapons to Indonesia and their
relationship quickly got better 20
Indonesian infantry battalions were
equipped for about 7 million or $74
million today president sir Carno
reportedly had a soft spot for the
beautiful American C130 so they had one
delivered to his forces as a gift this
is how you build trust giving leadership
the toys they want the US military even
gave Sir Carno a joy ride in the c124
globe Master transport that delivered
all the a to his country which he
reportedly got a kick out of there is a
prawn hiding behind the rock of course
it wasn't just us medling the Soviet
Union's involvement in Indonesia is
fascinating and in some weird ways
mirrors the new Cold War we're seeing
today with the US and China thanks to
the release of formerly secret Soviet
Communist party and foreign Ministry
materials combined with What's called
the Gau plan documents this all adds
detailed information on how the Soviet
Union's involvement shaped their history
what is Gau plan this Declassified CIA
document States 50,000 Soviets work
there God plan is like a Libertarians
worst nightmare it was responsible for
Central planning in the Soviet Union G
plan administered 5year plans that
governed the whole USSR that's why we
now know that between 1945 in 1965 the
Soviets sent extraordinarily large
quantities of Aid to Indonesia according
to the paper written by ragna bodden
titled Cold War economics 789 million
Rubles worth of assistance was sent
during those years adjusted for
inflation it's 156 billion rubles or
$1.7 billion today basically accounted
for more than 21% of total Aid provided
by Moscow to non-socialist developing
nations even Vietnam received less
perhaps not so surprisingly only three
of the 27 Civil Works projects funded by
them were ever completed where did the
money actually go you guessed it
according to the Gau plan classified
data that came out after the fall of
Soviet Union 90% of the aid was instead
spent on the military sir Carno made the
decision with Soviet consent Siro was
getting billions of dollars in military
from both the US and Soviets he
basically unlocked an infinite money
glitch and he was exploiting it hard
Indonesia then used their new found
power to advance their territorial
claims into West New Guinea a part of
the region still under Dutch control
Indonesia also launched another military
campaign into Malaysia which failed and
historians say ended up leading to the
infamous couet against him in 1965 the
1965 coup attempt by the communist pki
known as the 30 September movement they
killed their main rival Lieutenant
General AB medani who is the commander
of the Indonesian Army and five other
generals pretty much all of whom had
trained under American Military programs
the exact details of what went down that
night are still of great debate by
historians and inside Indonesia to this
day some believe it was the pki commies
While others believe it wasn't them
according to the army paper jarda knows
best what followed for sure was a
systematic killing or a purge of between
500,000 and 1 million real or alleged
Communists this purge made the military
gain more and more power so the leader
of the military serat became dictator in
1968 taking over from Sir carau
according to the CIA study of events in
Indonesia in terms of the numbers killed
the anti- pki massacre in Indonesia
ranks as one of the worst mass murders
of the 20th century the way this ties
into the situation today is that many
people in the Indonesian military were
suspicious that the Communist Chinese
party was behind the coup attempt
whether that was truly the case or not
don't know historians disagree and the
evidence for it is very limited if at
all I think that's a large part of why
in 1967 Indonesia helped establish the
oan with originally Malaysia Philippines
Singapore and Thailand it was a
counterbalance against external
influences in the region oon gave them a
platform and strengthened their
Collective voice so they could pursue
their national interests independently
without fear of the US Soviet Union or
China meddling or plotting Indonesia's
foreign policy during the Cold War was
an insane rope walking act they played
both the Americans and the Soviets for
everything they were worth we'll see how
they're evolving that same Playbook with
some new tricks for Cold War 2.0 today
but it's important to keep in mind that
its main goal is on conflict resolution
it's not focused on Collective defense
like an organization like NATO the
asia-pacific center for security studies
wrote a great publication by Anthony L
Smith who's a senior research fellow
that states a China threat to Indonesian
sovereignty has been imagined in the
following terms over the years one a
conventional assault by The People's
Liberation Army from the north two
Chinese pressure over sea boundaries in
the South China Sea and three China's
role in causing or sustaining domestic
instability in Indonesia so essentially
the Indonesian military which has a
massive amount of influence and control
in the country has been extremely
skeptical of communist China because
they fought an entire war and executed a
purge of communist forces that they
thought tried to overthrow them similar
to how the US had a bad guy to point two
in terrorism the second president of
Indonesia sorato had a bad guy Boogeyman
of Communism to point to during his rule
whether it was justified or not what it
did was cut off relations with China
this is why their relations with China
didn't even start until 1990 which is
extremely late in the game in 2023
68.5% of oan respondents to a poll said
they were worried about China's growing
regional political and strategic
influence the archipelago Nation it's
made up of roughly 18,000 islands with a
land mass three times that of Texas
while being wider than the entire
continuous United States now you might
think all these water obstacles would
make an invasion difficult and that
might be true but they also make it
tougher to administer and rule over the
divided Islands so between the end of
the Cold War and today Indonesia has
quietly become more powerful now that a
new kind of Quasi Cold War 2.0 is
happening Indonesia finds themselves in
a very different position than last time
around less vulnerable to outside
influence like a ring with a gemstone so
is a wise person with their words the
term term indopacific that the US
officials coined for this region is a
relatively New Concept it defines a
geopolitical region that encompasses
more than half the Earth's surface from
the west coast of America to the east
coast of Africa all oan countries are
essentially supporters of the US
indopacific strategy while at the same
time they're cautious not to align
themselves with the us as to avoid
retaliation from Beijing and China or
the further Stoke a military buildup in
Southeast Asia this is because China
poses a major annoyance to the oan
countries in one way most notably with
regards to beijing's claims to the South
China Sea in this regard all oan
countries benefit from the us-led
rules-based order where Maritime
security is a fundamental pillar but if
oan countries can avoid strategically
aligning they will why wouldn't they
this way they get the benefit of the
security from the US and the west and
the benefits of Economic Development
from China in a strange way this
non-alliance prevents War if suddenly
tomorrow Indonesia were tode entirely
with China the United States it would
actually increase the chances of War as
foreign minister natalo Gara said
Indonesia seeks a dynamic equilibrium
involving the different Regional powers
and he and other Indonesians believe Aon
positioned at the core of the
indopacific will maintain that
equilibrium China is certainly a
long-term strategic challenge for them
and one of the most polarizing foreign
policy questions in Indonesia today
however from their point of view the
military threat that China poses in
Indonesia is not framed in the the same
existential manner like many of us view
it in the United States in the west we
view the rise of China as a Potential
Threat to freedom and security partly
because China's ruled by one single
authoritarian dictator Indonesia's
greatest security threat today are from
extremist groups located in their
country 87% of the country is Muslim
unlike in the Middle East Africa and
South Asia Islam spread peacefully in
Indonesia one of the primary reasons for
Indonesia's strong Muslim presence is it
historical ties to the Arab world that
started all the way back into 13th
century through trade and Islamic
missionaries the gradual conversion of
local populations to Islam during these
periods contributed significantly to the
spread of the religion across the
archipelago over time Islam became
deeply rooted in the social fabric of
the Indonesian Society shaping aspects
of life from language and arts however
the JAMA islamia is the extremist
element inside Indonesia that seeks to
establish an Islamic State inside the
Nation meaning they want islamism and so
Indonesia is a little more difficult to
maintain territorial Integrity because
it's split across so many islands they
face separatist movements seeking
greater autonomy or Independence tigers
die because of their stripes so who if
anyone is winning the competition for
Indonesia's affection when you look at
the vast majority of military equipment
in Indonesia and their Armed Forces
today it's 99% armored vehicles
artillery firearms and fighter jets
largely from Turkey France the UK and us
this includes 33 Fighters 103 of the
leopard 2 main battle tank from Germany
you got the Scorpions from Britain toss
in some 100 AMX 13 tanks you get the
idea it's starting to look like a dang
NATO party there are few pieces of
Chinese equipment that sneak in there
they got some mortar tubes and armored
vehicles but it's few and far between as
far as now the us alone has imported $1
billion in arms and equipment to the
country the US has also conducted over
100 military exercises together and
trained thousands of their officers
Western Military Support is great for
them but what is China bringing to the
table since xiin ping came to office in
2013 the oan countries assumed a much
greater importance in Chinese foreign
policy China started just showering them
with 5.5 billion and funding they
constructed power plants and ports from
Indonesia's perspective to oversimplify
it it boiled down to economic versus
security numerous Studies have concluded
that Southeast Asian countries rank
Economic Development over security
concerns and are generally more worried
about Chinese economic influence and
Chinese military threats the last two
decades has marked China's gradual climb
to top trading partner St St is for all
11 Assan member states becoming the
number one trading block for China by
2020 going from 730 billion in 2020 to
975 billion in 2022 this of course
doesn't take into account that the free
and open indopacific strategy from the
West has Japan as a partner whose main
job is economic development with the oan
countries where they rank a close number
two essentially though China provides
the economic ties as the West provides
the weapons and training and a little
bit of the economic ties this is
actually how many middle power countries
are starting to see their relationship
in this new Cold War security
competition 2.0 the National Bureau of
Asian research and us-based think tank
States given the scale of Indonesia's
economic engagement with China in recent
years the US might have no choice but to
rely on the relationship with
Indonesia's military the game plan for
Indonesia is to accept Western aid but
not get too cozy with them to avoid
antagonizing Beijing which would Stoke
further military buildup there Indonesia
is unlikely to want to join any Alliance
in the region because they don't want to
upset the delicate balance of power
about 15 years ago the country of
Indonesia launched a military
modernization effort called Indonesia's
minimum essential Force plan they're
buying new fighter aircraft and frigs
increasing spending from 20 to 25
billion a year but that's still a very
low less than 1% of their total GDP on
defense less than many in their region
spend the ISS military balance blog
wrote a great outstanding article by
Evan laxmana and he put it this way 33
countries have supplied arms to
Indonesia indones IIA is a hodg podge of
foreign sourced arms and Equipment has
allowed policy makers to claim no
country can veto Indonesia's
modernization drive but it also means
the cost of maintenance repair and
overhaul as well as training education
and exercises to operate a multitude of
different weapon systems have balloon I
think part of the reason as to why
Indonesia might be flying under the
geopolitical radar right now is because
they don't have a major diaspora
population as large as some other
countries they have immigrated to the
Netherlands Malaysia Saudi Arabia the
United States Australia and Singapore
among others but many Indonesians say
that they would rather live in their
home country than move abroad they've
also ingrained neutrality in their DNA
they don't side with any major power I
read a comment by an Indonesian who
described it as you won't hear us as
allies of the west or Chinese puppets
like you hear about some other countries
so they don't make as many headlines in
the alarmist click baiting economy
whether this Balancing Act of neutrality
is tenable into the far future is
debatable it's clear that they will
continue to hedge themselves against
both the US and China of which they
remain distrustful of personally I think
the best way forward for the US is to
use their military influence to maintain
a status quo at all costs the world's
peace might just depend on the
neutrality of these swing States I'm
your average infan Chris Cappy thank you
for watching click one of these videos
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