Ukraine can face a bigger Russian army

Summary

The video discusses Ukraine's successful incursion into Kursk and its strategic implications. It analyzes the dilemma for Putin, considering military and political challenges, and speculates on Russia's potential response, including the possible use of conscript soldiers. The video suggests that while Ukraine's actions may lead to an escalation and a larger Russian force, it could also increase domestic opposition to the war within Russia.

Takeaways

• 🔍 The Ukraine's incursion into Kursk has been unexpectedly successful, capturing a significant amount of territory.
• 🎯 The main objective of Ukraine's actions is to bring the war into Russia, creating domestic pressure on Putin.
• 🚂 Secondary objectives include cutting important railroads and capturing Russian prisoners of war.
• 🏰 The incursion into Kursk has created a military and political dilemma for Putin, forcing a response.
• 🚨 The US policy change allowing Ukraine to use American weapons on Russian territory has escalated the conflict.
• 🔄 Russia must now reinforce its border, stretching its military resources thin.
• 🤔 Russia faces a choice between moving soldiers from the front line in Ukraine or mobilizing new forces.
• 🛡 The use of conscript soldiers is a politically sensitive option for Russia, as it could undermine public support for the war.
• 📈 There is a trend towards escalation in the war, with both sides increasing the intensity of their attacks.
• 🌐 The conflict is likely to worsen before it improves, with Ukraine potentially facing a larger Russian army including conscripts.

Q & A

What is the primary objective of Ukraine's incursion into Kursk?

The primary objective is to bring the war into Russia, creating domestic pressure on Putin and aiming to have the Russian army destroy Russian cities instead of Ukrainian ones.

What secondary objectives does Ukraine have in Kursk?

Secondary objectives include cutting an important railroad used by Russia for logistics and capturing Russian prisoners of war for exchange.

How has the incursion into Kursk created a dilemma for Putin?

The incursion has created both military and political dilemmas for Putin. Militarily, Russia must reinforce its border and remove Ukrainian forces from Kursk, which requires additional manpower. Politically, this could lead to unpopular decisions such as mobilizing more soldiers or sending conscripts to the front lines.

What was the American policy change that impacted the Russian military strategy?

The American policy change allowed Ukraine to use American weapons to hit targets on Russian territory, which broke the previous taboo and changed the threat level against the Russian border.

How does the American policy change affect Russia's military advantage?

The change forces Russia to spread its forces more thinly along the border, which could create vulnerabilities elsewhere as they have to allocate resources to defend a longer front line.

What are the two tasks the Russian army currently faces?

The Russian army must assemble a force to push Ukrainians out of the Kursk region and permanently reinforce the border to prevent future incursions.

What are the two choices Russia has to address its need for more soldiers?

Russia can either move soldiers currently engaged within Ukraine to the border or mobilize new soldiers who are not currently engaged in the war.

Why is mobilizing more soldiers a political dilemma for Putin?

Mobilizing more soldiers could be unpopular, as sending conscripts into battle could undermine support for the war and Putin's government, leading to political backlash.

What trends in the war does the script suggest are currently influencing decisions?

The war is trending towards more escalation and moving more into Russian territory, with both sides still escalating their efforts.

What is the likely response of Putin to the dilemma created by the incursion into Kursk?

Putin is likely to escalate by finding more soldiers, either through mobilization or by using conscripts, with the latter being more attractive due to ease and cost-effectiveness.

What is the potential impact of using conscript soldiers on the Russian war effort?

Using conscript soldiers could increase the size of the Russian army, but these soldiers may not be as experienced or well-equipped as the current forces, potentially creating a larger but less effective fighting force.

How does the script suggest Ukraine might respond to an escalation involving conscript soldiers?

Ukraine may try to maximize casualties among Russian conscripts to increase opposition within Russia and put more pressure on Putin to end the war.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Ukraine's Incursion into Kursk: Strategic Objectives and Military Impact

Ukraine's successful incursion into the Kursk region has exceeded expectations, capturing a significant portion of territory. While secondary objectives like controlling railroads and capturing prisoners are achieved, the primary goal is to bring the war into Russia and pressure Putin domestically. The incursion forces Russia to respond militarily and politically, causing a dilemma for Putin. The shift in U.S. policy allowing Ukraine to hit targets in Russia further complicates the situation. This has lengthened Russia's front line and increased the pressure on Russian forces to allocate resources effectively.

05:03

🪖 Putin's Military Dilemma: Manpower Shortage and Strategic Options

Putin faces a major military dilemma: how to gather enough soldiers to repel Ukraine's incursion and secure the border. Russia's military force is split into volunteers, mobilized soldiers, and conscripts. Increasing volunteers is challenging due to dwindling numbers, and a new mobilization could be unpopular. Putin could use conscripts, who are already trained but kept away from the frontlines to avoid public backlash. Expanding the force with conscripts seems like a more viable option, but it also carries political risks, as sending conscripts into battle could stir unrest.

10:04

🔄 Escalation and Russia's Slow Response to Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive

Russia's slow response to Ukraine's offensive in Kursk could indicate a calculated strategy of escalation. Putin appears to be gradually integrating conscripts into the war, taking a cautious approach to avoid backlash from Russian society. If the situation allows, Russia might ramp up conscription on a larger scale. This escalation fits within broader trends in the war, as both sides have been increasing the intensity of their attacks. Ukraine likely anticipated Russia's reaction and will aim to maximize the impact by targeting vulnerable conscripts, aiming to pressure Putin into ending the war.

Keywords

💡Incursion

An incursion refers to an act of entering or intruding into an area, often with hostile or unauthorized intent. In the context of the video, it refers to Ukraine's military action into Kursk, a region in Russia. The script discusses how this incursion has expanded the territory under Ukraine's control and created a dilemma for Putin.

💡Dilemma

A dilemma is a situation in which a difficult choice has to be made between two or more alternatives, especially equally undesirable ones. The video script uses this term to describe the difficult position Putin finds himself in due to Ukraine's incursion, which has both military and political implications.

💡Courses of action

Courses of action refer to the different strategies or plans that can be taken to deal with a situation. The script discusses the possible military and political strategies Russia might consider in response to Ukraine's incursion, such as reinforcing the border or mobilizing more soldiers.

💡Secondary objectives

Secondary objectives are goals that are important but not the main focus. The video explains that while Ukraine is achieving secondary objectives like cutting a railroad and taking prisoners of war, their primary objective is to bring the war into Russia.

💡Escalation

Escalation refers to an increase in intensity or scale, often used in the context of conflicts or wars. The script suggests that the war is escalating, with both sides increasing their military actions, which is a trend that will likely continue as a result of Ukraine's incursion.

💡Conscription

Conscription is the mandatory enlistment of people in a national service, often for military service. The script discusses the possibility of Russia using conscript soldiers to reinforce their forces, which would be a significant escalation and a politically sensitive decision.

💡Mobilization

Mobilization in a military context refers to the process of assembling and preparing military forces for war. The script mentions the possibility of Russia conducting another round of mobilization to increase the number of soldiers available for the conflict.

💡Front line

The front line refers to the boundary or line along which opposing military forces are engaged in combat. The video script discusses how the front line has shifted and become longer due to the incursion, forcing Russia to spread its forces more thinly.

💡Asymmetric advantage

An asymmetric advantage is a situation where one side in a conflict has a significant advantage that the other side does not share. The script explains how Russia previously had an asymmetric advantage by being able to concentrate forces in Ukraine while maintaining a lighter presence near the border.

💡Political backlash

Political backlash refers to the negative reaction or consequences that can result from a political decision. The script suggests that Putin is concerned about the political backlash that could come from sending conscript soldiers into battle, which could undermine support for the war and his government.

💡Casualties

Casualties refer to the number of people killed, injured, or missing in a conflict. The video script notes that casualties are increasing, indicating an escalation in the war. It also suggests that Ukraine may try to maximize casualties among Russian conscripts to put pressure on Putin.

Highlights

Ukraine's incursion into Kursk has been more successful than anticipated, capturing a large chunk of territory.

The primary objective of Ukraine's incursion is to bring the war into Russia, creating domestic pressure on Putin.

Secondary objectives include cutting important railroads and capturing Russian prisoners of war.

The incursion into Kursk has created a military and political dilemma for Putin.

The American policy change in May allowed Ukraine to use American weapons on Russian territory.

Russia's asymmetric advantage on the front line has been compromised, requiring them to reinforce the border.

Russia faces a challenge in finding additional soldiers to reinforce the border and push Ukrainians out of Kursk.

Russia has two choices: move soldiers from the front line in Ukraine or use new soldiers not currently engaged in the war.

Using conscripts in the war could be politically unpopular and undermine support for Putin's government.

Russia's military is split into volunteers, mobilized soldiers, and conscripts, with each group having different roles and implications.

It's unlikely Russia can significantly increase the number of volunteers for the war effort.

Another round of mobilization is possible but faces obstacles such as unpopularity and equipment shortages.

Conscripts represent a readily available force that could be used in the war with some political maneuvering.

Putin may opt to escalate the war by including conscripts to address the military dilemma.

Russia's response to the incursion has been slow, possibly indicating a strategic decision to escalate rather than a lack of plan.

The war is likely to escalate, with Ukraine facing a larger Russian army including conscript soldiers.

Ukraine may aim to maximize casualties among Russian conscripts to increase opposition within Russia.

The war is expected to get worse before it gets better, as Ukraine pushes to put Putin under more pressure.

Transcripts

Ukraine's incursion into Kursk has been more

successful than I think most people had anticipated.

They have taken a fairly large chunk of territory and at

this point they're still expanding the area that they control.

In this video I want to discuss the dilemma that this creates

for Putin and what possible courses of actions the Russians have.

And then judging by what we've seen so far, I'm going to give my

assessment of how I think we should understand the Russian response

and what this is about, what to expect from the war in the coming time.

So, let's talk about it.

Since Ukraine launched their incursion into Kursk, there's been a lot

of speculation about what exactly is it that they're trying to achieve.

So, it's discussions about exactly what territory they're going for, is the goal to take this

railroad, is it the nuclear power plant, is it to take a lot of prisoners of war.

And while all these discussions are interesting and I think the

Ukrainians are definitely happy to achieve some of these things,

then in the big perspective, I think we should see all these things as secondary objectives.

So, it's good for Ukraine that they have cut an important railroad that Russia was using for

logistics and they're happy that they're taking Russian prisoners

of war that they can then exchange for Ukrainian prisoners of war.

But this is not why they launched the invasion of Russia.

The primary reason why Ukraine did this is that they

have a general objective of bringing the war into Russia.

They want to create a domestic pressure on Putin and in a more primitive sense, they would like

the Russian army to destroy Russian cities instead

of Ukrainian cities when they are doing the fighting.

And then they chose this exact location to do it because there

were some secondary objectives in this area that are attractive.

So, that's for example the railroad or they did it here because they identified that the

terrain was suitable here or that the Russians were particularly weak in this area.

But the primary objective is this thing about bringing the war home to the Russians.

And the incursion into Kursk has created a huge dilemma for Putin

and this dilemma has a military dimension and it has a political one.

So, if we start with the military dimension to Putin's dilemma, then the root cause of this

actually goes back to May when Russia launched

their offensive into the Kharky region of Ukraine.

That move, when Russia did that, led to the American change in politics where Joe Biden for the

first time allowed Ukraine that now they can use

American weapons to hit things on Russian territory.

And originally, the Ukrainians were only allowed to use these

weapons in connection with the defense of the Kharkiv region.

So, it was very limited what they could do with the American weapons and there was quite a lot

of criticism of Joe Biden about that at the time.

But the important thing was that the taboo was broken.

So, we went from a situation where it was very easy to understand what the rules were.

There was a red line.

Ukraine could hit everything here.

They could hit nothing there.

And then we got into a situation where it was basically negotiable between the Ukrainians and

the Americans on a case-to-case basis what they could do.

And that completely changed the threat level against the Russian border.

And I made a video about the consequences of this American policy change.

And in that video, I said some things that I think can

explain the military dilemma that Putin is facing now.

So, here's what I said.

The second problem that this American decision will give

to the Russians is that it makes the front line longer.

Russia has so far had an asymmetric advantage in the sense that they have been able to

concentrate their forces along the part of the

front line that goes through Ukrainian territory.

So, the Ukrainians have had to allocate troops to the entire

front line, including the international border between the countries.

But the Russians have been able to have a very light footprint in the north.

And they have had the opportunity to take some of their more valuable systems and then just

concentrate them, only use them in Ukraine, because that's where it was most important.

So, that's things like air defense systems,

electronic warfare equipment, those kinds of things.

But now suddenly they have to also use those along the

border in the Belgorod, the Kursk, the Priyansk Oblas.

So, this can create holes in other areas where suddenly the Ukrainians will experience that

they have some opportunities that they didn't have before.

Okay, apparently the Russian general staff did not watch my video because then they would have

known that they needed to reinforce the border.

But now after Ukraine's incursion into Kursk, then it's

very obvious that this is something they will have to do.

So, going forward, the Russians will have to make sure

that the red line on the picture is as long as the blue one.

So, the Russian army essentially has two tasks right now that will demand a lot of manpower.

First, they will have to put together a force that

can throw the Ukrainians out again of the Kursk region.

And then second, they will have to permanently

reinforce the border so that the Ukrainians can't do it again.

And the big question is then, where are all these soldiers going to come from?

And here the Russians essentially have two choices.

Either they can take the soldiers that are currently engaged along the front line inside of

Ukraine and they can move some of them back into Russia.

Or else they will have to take some new soldiers that are not

currently engaged in the war and then they can use them for this new task.

And this is where the military dilemma crosses into also becoming a political dilemma.

Because the way the Russians have been manning their force during

the war so far is that essentially they've split the military into...

On the one hand, there is a fighting force that consists of volunteers and people that have

been mobilized specifically for this special military operation.

And then on the other hand, there is a conscription army where young Russians can go through

mandatory military service and they're not a part of the war in Ukraine.

And the reason they've done this is that it would be

very unpopular if they sent the conscripts into battle.

And Putin is afraid of the political backlash because it's something that could potentially

undermine the support for the war and for his government.

So we can say that there are these three groups of soldiers.

There are volunteers, there are mobilized soldiers and there are conscripts.

And it's not likely that Russia can significantly increase the number of volunteers.

They are already recruiting everyone they can find.

And at the same time, there are some signs that it's

getting harder and harder for them to find new volunteers.

So while they do still find new volunteers and they can find some people that are willing to

sign a contract in exchange for a very good bonus,

then it's not likely that they can significantly expand the force in that way.

And then there is, of course, the possibility that they can have

another round of mobilization and they can find soldiers that way.

That's definitely possible, but there will be obstacles here as well.

The first one is that it would be unpopular.

There was a big wave of mobilization in 2022 and it later turned

out that Russia didn't actually intend on rotating those soldiers.

So if you were one of the unlucky ones, you were mobilized, then you would have to stay on the

front line until you're either dead or wounded.

And this is something that I mean, it's likely that people will be even more keen on avoiding

being mobilized if there is a new wave of mobilization.

And the second reason why mobilization is perhaps not their first choice is that it will be

difficult for them to find the equipment for all these new soldiers.

Russia is already struggling to provide equipment to the front line in Ukraine, and it will be

hard for them to expand the force just equipment wise.

And that leads to the question of conscripts, because here is a force that already exists.

It already has basic training and it has some equipment and it is basically going around.

They're doing military stuff.

It's just not a part of the war.

And Russia has about 200,000 to 250,000 conscript soldiers, and

they can basically use them tomorrow if Putin makes that decision.

And they actually have a pretty easy way of doubling that number if they want to, because right

now there is in Russia a debate about whether they should go back to a conscription time of 24

months, which was as it was in the Soviet Union instead of the 12 months that it is today.

So what is Putin going to do?

Is he going to move some of the existing soldiers from the front line in Ukraine so that they

can throw the Ukrainians out of the Kursk region and reinforce the border?

Or is he going to try to increase the size of the fighting force so that they can do both?

And I think it's often helpful to look at the big

trends and see what is the general direction of things.

And in my last video, I said that one of the current trends in the

war is that it's going to move more and more into Russian territory.

But another trend that is also very important is to ward more escalation.

So both sides are still escalating.

Ukraine escalated when they started the offensive into Kursk.

And already before that, we were seeing record numbers of casualties this summer.

So in the West, there have been some people that were

thinking that this war is turning into a kind of frozen conflict.

But actually more people are dying in 2024 than in 2023 because Russia has escalated the

intensity of their attacks, basically across the entire front line compared to last year.

So if we judge by the place where we are in the war and the trends that are influencing the

decisions that are being made, then I think the most likely thing is that Putin will try to

escalate his way out of this problem that he has now.

And that means finding more soldiers either

through mobilization or through the use of conscripts.

And as I said before, using the conscripts is probably the more attractive choice of those two

because it's easier, but also because it's cheaper,

because then you won't have this whole conscript

army going around that is essentially redundant.

And if we look at what the Russians have actually been doing since

Ukraine's incursion into Kursk, then I think it fits this picture.

Like we've seen some announcement that some conscript units

from around Russia are being sent to what the Ukrainian border.

But they're taking it slowly because they want to be careful.

So it's just a relatively small number of units so far, and

they're watching to see the reaction from the Russian people.

And if it looks like they're going to get away with it and it doesn't create a lot of trouble,

then they will take that as a sign that they can go

ahead and they can use conscripts on a bigger scale.

So if we look at the Russian response to the Ukrainian

incursion into Kursk and we can see that it's been kind of slow.

They haven't really managed to find a way to stop the Ukrainians yet.

Then I think we need to be careful not to interpret that as

a sign that they're lost or that they don't know what to do.

I think we can just just as well see that as a sign that Putin

has decided to go for escalation, that he wants the big package.

He wants to expand the fighting force to include the conscripts.

And then they know that in order to succeed with that, it's important that they don't move too

quickly because that could that could destabilize the situation.

In Russia, so they need to move ahead carefully and they need

to normalize the idea that conscripts are a part of the war.

And if that means that it will take some weeks or maybe even months before they can put up a

sort of adequate response to the Ukrainian offensive, so be it.

That is something they're willing to accept if it means that, let's say by the end of the year,

they will have 100,000 or 200,000 new soldiers in the fighting force.

So for sure, there is also a lot of chaos and confusion

and frustration in the top of the Russian system right now.

But I think it's important that we don't exaggerate that effect or

assume that everything is so chaotic that they don't have a plan.

And then the big question is then, of course, that what

are all these conscripts soldiers going to be able to do?

They have some equipment, they have some training, but it won't be on the same level as those

units that are fighting in Ukraine and have a lot of experience.

So I don't think they can avoid entirely moving resources from the

front line in Ukraine to also cover this new front line in Russia.

They will have to take some resources, both in terms of manpower, but definitely also in terms

of vehicles and ammunition, those sorts of things.

But I think it's going to be less than many people in Ukraine are probably hoping.

And I think they're going to try to spare the most

important parts of the front line, which is the one in Donetsk.

So the sad conclusion is that it's likely that as a result of this Ukrainian attack into the

Kursk region, then we're going to see an escalation of

the war where Ukraine will be facing a bigger Russian army.

So in round numbers, it will be the existing army that

is attacking Ukraine plus the Russian conscript army.

So on the one hand, this will mean that Russia will have more soldiers, but on the other hand,

it will also mean that Russia will be more vulnerable.

So it will give some challenges for Ukraine because they have to face more Russian soldiers.

But it will also give opportunities because they can target those Russian conscripts and they

can hit the Russian society where it hurts the most.

And while this sounds very pessimistic, I actually think

that it's what Ukraine was expecting would come of this.

They know that if they push Russia really hard and Putin is under

enough pressure, then sooner or later he was going to take this step.

And I guess from a Ukrainian point of view, then sooner is better than later, because if they

want to put Putin under so much pressure that he will be willing to end the war, then it's

going to take a lot more than just humiliating him or stealing a bit of land in Kursk.

Like they need to generate a lot more opposition across Russia and

getting the conscripts into the war is probably a necessary step.

So I think we will see Ukraine doing what they can to

maximize the casualties among the Russian conscripts.

So it's not pleasant to think about, especially given that right

now there is a lot of optimism about the things that Ukraine is doing.

But I think we are unfortunately at a point where

the war is going to get worse before it can get better.

OK, I will end it here.

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