La seguridad alimentaria y el impacto de la guerra en Ucrania | Los expertos responden
Summary
TLDREl conflicto en Ucrania está exacerbando la inseguridad alimentaria global, afectando especialmente el precio de productos como el trigo y los fertilizantes. Los países que importan granos de Ucrania y Rusia enfrentan el mayor riesgo inmediato, con países del Medio Oriente y África del Norte siendo los más vulnerables. El Banco Mundial aconseja contra las restricciones de exportación y promueve programas de protección social y apoyo a los agricultores para enfrentar el aumento de precios y la escasez de alimentos.
Takeaways
- 📈 La inseguridad alimentaria ha estado en aumento durante varios años, incluso antes de la crisis en Ucrania y la pandemia de COVID-19.
- 🌾 En 2020, el número de personas hambrunas era ya de aproximadamente 800 millones, un aumento de 100 millones con respecto al año anterior.
- 🔥 La guerra en Ucrania está exacerbando los problemas de inseguridad alimentaria, especialmente en lo que respecta a los precios de los alimentos.
- 🌎 Los países más vulnerables y afectados por la guerra en Ucrania son aquellos que importan gran parte de su trigo de ese país y Rusia.
- 📉 El trigo es el principal producto afectado por el conflicto, con un aumento del precio del 50% en marzo con respecto a febrero y del 80% con respecto al año anterior.
- 🌾 Rusia es el mayor exportador mundial de trigo, con casi el 20% de las exportaciones globales, seguido por Ucrania con un 10%.
- 🚢 El bloqueo de las exportaciones de trigo de Ucrania y Rusia está causando un shock significativo en los mercados globales.
- 🌱 Los precios de los fertilizantes también se ven afectados por la guerra, lo que podría traducirse en problemas de producción para la próxima temporada.
- 🚫 Las restricciones a las exportaciones de alimentos son contraproducentes y pueden tener consecuencias negativas en el mercado global.
- 💡 Los gobiernos y la comunidad internacional deben enfocarse en proteger la capacidad adquisitiva de los hogares más pobres y en programas de protección social bien dirigidos, en lugar de mantener los precios artificialmente bajos.
- 🌐 Para mejorar la resiliencia a futuros shocks, los países deben transformar sus sistemas alimentarios para que sean más productivos, eficientes en recursos, diversos y nutritivos.
Q & A
¿Cuál es el impacto inmediato de la guerra en Ucrania en la seguridad alimentaria mundial?
-El impacto inmediato se está dando principalmente en y alrededor de Ucrania, pero también podría tener efectos de largo alcance más allá de la región, especialmente en los precios de los alimentos.
¿Cuál fue el número de personas hambrunas en 2020 antes de la guerra en Ucrania?
-En 2020, el número de personas hambrunas era ya de aproximadamente 800 millones y estaba en aumento, 100 millones más que el año anterior.
¿Cuáles son algunos de los factores preexistentes que contribuyeron al aumento de la inseguridad alimentaria antes de la guerra en Ucrania?
-Los factores preexistentes incluyen la pandemia de COVID-19, conflictos, eventos climáticos extremos y plagas y enfermedades.
¿Cómo afecta la guerra en Ucrania específicamente los productos de trigo y maíz?
-La guerra ha afectado principalmente el trigo, con Rusia como el mayor exportador y Ucrania como uno de los principales exportadores. El maíz también ha aumentado en precios debido a la invasión.
¿Cuál es el porcentaje de aumento en los precios del trigo en el mercado global desde febrero?
-El precio del trigo en el mercado global estaba a la fecha de marzo un 50% más alto que en febrero y casi un 80% más alto que hace un año.
¿Qué países están en mayor riesgo debido a su alta dependencia de las importaciones de trigo de Ucrania y Rusia?
-Los países con un alto riesgo son aquellos que importan una gran cantidad de trigo de Ucrania y Rusia, como Egipto, Turquía, Bangladesh, Irán, Líbano, Túnez, Yemen, Libia y Pakistán.
¿Cómo afecta la guerra en Ucrania el costo de los fertilizantes y por qué es significativo?
-La guerra afecta significativamente el costo de los fertilizantes, ya que Rusia y Bielorrusia representan el 20% de las exportaciones mundiales de fertilizantes. Esto podría traducirse en problemas de producción para la próxima temporada si los agricultores no pueden acceder a suficientes fertilizantes.
¿Qué tipo de estrategias recomienda el Banco Mundial para abordar la inseguridad alimentaria en tiempos de crisis?
-El Banco Mundial recomienda proteger la capacidad adquisitiva de los hogares más pobres mediante programas de protección social bien dirigidos en lugar de mantener precios artificialmente bajos para todos.
¿Qué tipo de ayuda están brindando los países al Banco Mundial para enfrentar la crisis alimentaria causada por la guerra en Ucrania?
-El Banco Mundial ha respondido con financiamiento de emergencia y nuevos proyectos, y se espera que haya más apoyo en respuesta a la crisis adicional.
¿Cómo pueden los países mejorar su resiliencia a futuros shocks, como pandemias o conflictos, en términos de seguridad alimentaria?
-Los países deben transformar sus sistemas alimentarios para hacerlos más productivos, eficientes en recursos, diversos y nutritivos, asegurando la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional frente a riesgos climáticos, conflictos y económicos.
Outlines
🌏 Aumento de la inseguridad alimentaria
El número de personas hambrunas aumentó a 800 millones en 2020, 100 millones más que el año anterior, incluso antes de la crisis en Ucrania y la pandemia de COVID-19. Los conflictos, eventos climáticos extremos y plagas y enfermedades son factores a largo plazo que afectan la seguridad alimentaria. La crisis en Ucrania ha exacerbado la situación, afectando especialmente los productos como el trigo, el maíz, los aceites comestibles y los fertilizantes, donde Rusia y Ucrania son grandes exportadores. Esto ha provocado un aumento significativo en los precios internacionales de estos productos.
🚢 Impacto del conflicto en Ucrania en la importación de cereales
Países con una gran dependencia de las importaciones de trigo de Ucrania y Rusia, como Egipto, Turquía, Bangladesh, Irán, Líbano, Túnez, Yemen, Libia y Pakistán, enfrentan un alto riesgo inmediato. La espera de envíos para la segunda mitad del año pone en peligro las operaciones humanitarias, especialmente el Programa Mundial de Alimentos. La respuesta a la crisis debe enfocarse en mantener los flujos comerciales abiertos y evitar restricciones de exportación, que podrían tener efectos negativos en el suministro global y aumentar los precios.
🌾 Medidas para fortalecer la seguridad alimentaria a largo plazo
Para mejorar la resiliencia ante futuros shocks y garantizar la seguridad alimentaria a largo plazo, es crucial transformar los sistemas alimentarios para que sean más productivos, eficientes en recursos, diversos y nutritivos. Esto implica un enfoque en la inversión en innovación, investigación y desarrollo, y en la promoción de prácticas agrícolas inteligentes ante el cambio climático. El Banco Mundial ha respondido a la crisis con financiamiento de emergencia y proyectos nuevos, aumentando su apoyo en áreas como la agricultura y medidas de protección social.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡hunger
💡food insecurity
💡conflict
💡wheat
💡fertilizers
💡export restrictions
💡social protection programs
💡food systems
💡acute food insecurity
💡World Bank
Highlights
Hunger was rising even before the Ukraine crisis and COVID-19, with 800 million people hungry in 2020.
100 million more people were hungry in 2020 compared to the previous year.
The war in Ukraine exacerbates existing food insecurity issues.
Conflicts, extreme weather, and diseases are long-standing drivers of food insecurity.
388 million people across 42 countries experienced acute food insecurity in 2020.
Wheat is the primary commodity affected by the war in Ukraine.
Russia and Ukraine are significant wheat exporters, impacting global food prices.
Global wheat prices were about 50% higher in March compared to February.
Maize prices increased by 25-30% following the invasion.
Rice prices have not been significantly affected by the conflict.
Shipping through the Black Sea has come to a standstill due to the war.
Countries that import wheat from Ukraine and Russia are at high risk.
Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Iran are major wheat importers from the region.
The World Food Program's humanitarian operations are threatened by the crisis.
Export restrictions in response to the crisis are not recommended.
Governments should protect the purchasing power of the poorest households.
Subsidizing fertilizers indiscriminately can increase demand and prices worldwide.
Countries should improve their resilience to shocks in the long term.
Investing in stronger food systems is also an investment in peace.
The World Bank has provided significant support in agriculture and social protection measures.
The World Bank expects to do more with the additional shock from the war.
Transcripts
has been rising for a number of years
and well before the ukraine crisis
and even well before kovit the number of
hungry people in 2020 was already about
800 million and rising unfortunately 100
million more
than we had the year before
[Music]
on this episode of expert answers we're
looking at the impact of the war in
ukraine on global food security while
the most immediate and obvious effects
are taking place in and around ukraine
disruptions from the war could have
far-reaching effects beyond the region
especially on food prices what does this
mean for the poorest and most vulnerable
and what should be done to promote food
security for answers to these questions
and more let's talk now to the world
bank's vice president for sustainable
development jurgen fogela
[Music]
so jurgen thank you so much for being
here and taking the time to chat with us
today one thing that i found interesting
was that even before the the war in
ukraine food insecurity was rising can
you explain the the pre-existing drivers
uh to the rising food insecurity and how
this invasion is likely to make those
worse
yeah it's good to be here paul great to
see you and thanks for for having me um
as you said hunger has been rising for a
number of years well before the ukraine
crisis
and even well before covet the number of
hungry people in 2020 was already about
800 million and rising unfortunately 100
million more than we had the year before
and this is partly because of the
impacts of the cobit pandemic but it's
also because of the long-standing
drivers of food insecurity such as
conflicts extreme weather events and
pests and diseases conflicts are a big
issue and and we need to look at two
elements of what it does right it is the
old it's the number of hungry people but
it's also the acute food insecurity and
acute food insecurity is
horrible because it really puts people
at immediate risk defined as when a
person's life or livelihood is an
immediate danger because a lack of food
and a staggering
388 million people across 42 countries
experienced acute food insecurity which
is more than five percent higher than in
2020. so this is an issue that we really
need to focus on right away the conflict
in ukraine is obviously dominating the
headlines right now can we sort of zoom
in onto that and is it possible to
to say which products are particularly
affected are there certain foods that
are that are particularly affected by
the the conflict in ukraine
sure i mean the commodities most
affected by the conflict our wheat
predominantly to some extent maize
edible oils and very importantly
fertilizers actually weed is the primary
commodity affected by the war russia is
the world's largest exporter of wheat
accounting for about 18
nearly 20 of global exports in 2021 and
ukraine accounts for another 10 now
they're both not the largest producers
of wheat that's india and china
but they are the largest exporters and
so
around 35 percent of the world's
population relies on wheat as the
primary staple in their diets so it's a
very significant
shock
as of march about a week ago the price
of wheat on global markets was about 50
percent higher than in february and
almost 80 percent higher than a year ago
maze prices also increased following the
invasion
a little rising about 25 to 30 percent
of our february levels and about 37
year-on-year so those two commodities
really have um gone up now other
commodities such as rice are not
affected for the moment which is quite
different from the situation we had 14
15 years ago during the last food price
crisis globally price is still about 17
lower than it was in january 2021 so
that there is a little bit of good news
there
now when you look at shipping through
the black sea and it's at a standstill
and high global wheat prices we can
expect other countries to sell more
wheat fortunately again the stock levels
are not bad so we should not
get a sense that we have a global wheat
shortage overall there is enough wheat
on the planet
and planting more wheat this spring and
summer will make up of the shortfall to
a significant extent if the exports
remain blocked out of ukraine
uh and russia so it's not really a total
supply issue but the problem is that
those countries that are used to
importing from those countries now have
to adjust and that will not be painless
and it will be very costly
then you have the impact of the war on
fertilizer cost and that's significant
because
it could really translate into
production problems for the next season
across crops
if yields crash because the farmers
cannot afford
or even access enough fertilizer we need
to understand that russia and belarus
account for 20 of global fertilizer
exports
and again fertilizer prices were already
very high before the war because of high
oil prices and the price of urea for
instance actually tripled last year
already so we're having a you know these
are sort of the two main buckets it's
the wheat
export and it's the fertilizer export
and and you're talking about the exports
there let's look at the other side of
the equation there are countries that
are importing
maybe it's wheat maybe it's other crops
but which countries are most likely to
be affected by the conflict in ukraine
so as i was saying right countries with
a high share of wheat imports from
ukraine and russia are the highest
immediate risk especially those who were
still awaiting shipments for the second
half of the of the year such as egypt
they're still waiting for 6.6 million
tons turkey is a major wheat importer
uh four million tons bangladesh is close
to four million tons in iran is 1.7
million tons but also lebanon tunisia
yemen libya and pakistan you can see
it's it's the countries in the region i
mean the men are the middle east and
north african countries depend on wheat
from the black sea region for geographic
reasons right the ships only have to
cross the mediterranean and wheat is a
staple in that region's diet egypt is
the world's largest wheat importer by
the way now this also threatens
humanitarian operations in venice since
the world food program depends on this
wheat so the compounding shock if you if
you want after war in ukraine may cause
severe outcomes for vulnerable people in
several middle east north african
countries if the humanitarian and
development decisions are not scaled up
so as again and again whenever we have
these crises it is the poor that suffer
the most
and one of the ways we've seen countries
respond to this is with export
restrictions is that an effective
strategy if
you know a government official from a
country were to phone you up and say
you know what should we do should we
stop the export of some of these crops
what would you tell them well this is
exactly the wrong thing to do so really
thanks for asking this question because
right now this is probably the most
important thing that we all can do
having a conversation around how to keep
the trade
of food commodities open and how to keep
the goodies flowing so when they call us
we will say absolutely not a good idea
if you want to support your own
population do it in a different way but
do not block the flow
of food it's a tempting uh you know it's
tempting to to restrict exports to avoid
local shortages but it it has very very
detrimental
implications as we as we saw when
when we went through the
2007-2008 food price crisis the trick is
really to move food from places of
surplus to places of need and that's
what needs to happen
so that's
what government shouldn't do
what should they do what should
governments the international community
do to support those that are most at
risk of food insecurity
right so of course they need to they
need to act they need to react and they
need to put measures in place in general
it's much better to protect the
purchasing power of the poorest
households to well targeted nutrition
sensitive social protection programs
rather than maintaining prices
artificially low for everyone
so for instance subsidizing bread across
all income levels is not a very
uh it's only very expensive for
governments it's regressive it
encourages food waste and poor diets and
it can be very hard to to politically
correct once a crisis is over right so
really supporting these social safety
nets at a time of crisis is the right
way to go the same caution applies to
helping farmers access fertilizers right
the knee jerk reaction is often well
let's subsidize it okay it's gotten more
expensive to help the farmers but if you
apply these subsidies indiscriminately
it risks increasing demand and
fertilizer
prices worldwide
and it doesn't help in the end removing
input trade barriers focusing on more
efficient user fertilizers investing in
bio fertilizers repurposing these public
policies and expenditures to better
support farmers a much better better way
of of doing this again this is in
addition to the to the export
restriction conversation what you do
domestically is actually very very
important as well and we know now from
many a couple of decades of experience
what works and what has a beneficial
effect overall and what doesn't work and
what should be avoided in a situation
like this
we spoke a couple months ago about
supply chains and what that meant for
food prices and food security
a few months ago most of us couldn't
imagine a war like the one that's
happening in ukraine
what can countries do
to improve their resilience kind of
across the board over the long term
to shocks whether it's something like a
pandemic that that
kind of
was quite hard to predict a conflict
that was hard to predict how can they
they strengthen their their food
security and boost nutrition over the
long term and create that resilience
that they need
right i think it's a very important
point that we don't just focus on the
immediate crisis and the short-term
measures but every country going forward
needs to continue to transform its food
systems and make make it more resilient
in the long term it's really crucial to
stay that course the food systems as i
said we're already reeling from multiple
crises prior to the russians invasion of
the ukraine governments private
businesses and international partners
really need to work towards more
productive more resource efficient more
diverse and more nutritious production
systems to ensure that food and
nutrition security is there in the face
of rising climate conflict and economic
risks i think this is absolutely clear
to everyone it's just we we forget
during times of crisis that we that we
can't take our eyes off the medium to
long term so it's really important to
better target the public spending
we talked about the subsidies before
right now you know the spending is in
the order of three quarters of a
trillion dollars a year and a lot of
that money is not doing what we've just
discussed and it needs to be repurposed
it needs to be redirected in a way that
actually achieves those those more
resilient more nutritious and and less
climate damaging outcomes important to
mobilize private funding and investing
in innovation and research and
development will be key because
everybody needs to do more with less
right we produce more nutritious more
diverse more high value food for great
for growing population and to do this
with less water and fertilizer while
limiting the land use and greenhouse gas
emissions climate smart agriculture is
the world to remember here now research
suggests that investing in stronger food
systems is also an investment in peace i
think this must be clear to everyone if
the food systems are wobbly as we see in
many countries right now this leads to
conflict it leads to migration etc etc
and i asked you earlier about you know
what would be your advice kind of
hypothetically if government officials
started reaching out to to you or the
world bank
my last question for you is have
countries reached out to the world bank
group for help and and what kind of
support uh is being offered in this area
of food security
yes definitely i mean we have been in
touch with a number of countries in east
africa west africa north africa
middle east
several other parts of the world even
before the pandemic but now it's really
been ramping up a lot of countries are
asking for support and we've responded
with a whole set of emergency financing
and new projects and we actually expect
to do more with this additional shock
and just the world bank has provided
significant support just in the last two
years about 17 billion annually in
combined ida and ibrd lending this is up
from about 12 billion on average in the
previous three years
primarily for agriculture and the social
protection measures and in the last
couple years we've allocated about half
a billion across
11 countries from the crisis response
window and there will be a lot more
coming and let's be clear this is not
the last crisis we are facing so
whatever we do we need to immediately
help those in acutely but we should
never take our eyes off that there is a
much deeper and much more fundamental
issue that we need to address with our
support in our programs
this is brilliant thank you so much for
taking the time today i really
appreciate it
it's my pleasure
a huge thanks to jurgen fogler for his
time you can find out more about how the
world bank is responding to the war in
ukraine by heading over to our website
that's worldbank.org and a quick
reminder that the world bank imf spring
meetings are just around the corner
we're planning several important events
and we want you to take part find out
the full schedule and more details at
live.worldbank.org
until next time goodbye
[Music]
Browse More Related Video
Ep. 13🎙 Riesgo de una Crisis Alimentaria en el Perú
Cambio climático en Latinoamérica: ¿cuáles serán sus efectos?
BRICS, el brazo económico del nuevo Sur Global frente a Occidente
¡La 3a GUERRA MUNDIAL más CERCA que NUNCA! ⚔ | Draw My Life en Español
La Base 4x139 | El ejército ruso avanza en Ucrania
¿Por qué muchos europeos no quieren el acuerdo con el #Mercosur?
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)