Why Starmer is Cosying Up to Germany and France

Summary

The video discusses Keir Starmer's approach to UK-EU relations, focusing on his attempts to reset ties after Brexit. Starmer aims for agreements in security, professional qualifications, and trade facilitation. However, the EU's response includes eight demands, with contentious points on mobility and fisheries access. Starmer's strategy involves bilateral talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron to gain leverage in negotiations. Despite challenges, including domestic unpopularity for Scholz and Macron, Starmer seeks to move beyond Brexit and rebuild a cooperative relationship with the EU.

Takeaways

• 🇬🇧 The UK's relationship with the EU has been strained under previous Conservative governments led by Theresa May and Boris Johnson.
• 🔄 Keir Starmer aims to reset the UK's relationship with the EU, promising a different approach compared to his predecessors.
• 🤝 Starmer seeks agreements in three key areas: security, recognition of professional qualifications, and agreements on veterinary and chemical matters to facilitate trade.
• 🇪🇺 The EU's response to Starmer's advances was not positive, presenting eight demands that the UK must meet before negotiations can begin.
• 🤔 The last two EU demands could be problematic for Starmer, especially concerning a mobility deal and fisheries access, which might reignite Brexit debates.
• 👥 Starmer is using bilateral talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron to gain leverage in broader EU negotiations.
• 🇩🇪 Starmer's discussions with Scholz hint at a desire for a security and defense agreement, possibly similar to the Lancaster House Treaties.
• 🇫🇷 His meeting with Macron is seen as an opportunity to reset relations, though concrete plans for future cooperation with France are less clear.
• 🤷‍♂️ There is skepticism about whether Starmer's strategy of aligning with Scholz and Macron will be effective, given their current domestic political challenges.
• 🤝 Historical precedent suggests that trying to secure EU concessions via Germany or France has not always been successful for the UK.

Q & A

What was the relationship between the UK and the EU like before Starmer's election?

Prior to Starmer's election, the UK Conservative government under Theresa May did not pursue a conciliatory relationship with the EU. The UK made it clear it would not remain inside the single market or the customs union. Under Boris Johnson, the UK pursued a harder Brexit arrangement and tried to renege on the included commitment, which increased frustrations within the EU.

What approach is Starmer taking to reset the UK's relationship with the EU?

Starmer is attempting to reset the relationship by pursuing a harder Brexit arrangement and trying to mend ties via a series of bilaterals with German Chancellor Olaf Schulz and French President Emanuel Macron.

What are the three key areas Starmer wants an agreement with the EU?

Starmer wants an agreement in three key areas: an expansive security agreement, recognition of professional qualifications to facilitate better trade in services, and agreements on veterinary matters and chemicals to smooth out cross-border goods trade.

What were the EU's initial demands before they would begin negotiations with the UK?

The EU responded to Starmer's advances with eight demands, with the first six being relatively easy for the UK to agree to. The final two demands, regarding a mobility deal and fisheries, are likely causing headaches for Starmer.

Why might a mobility deal be problematic for Starmer?

A mobility deal would play badly for the pro-Brexit contingent in the UK and could reignite questions about the single market and customs union.

What is the current agreement regarding EU access to UK waters?

The current agreement allows the EU conditional access to UK waters, which is set to end in 2026. The EU wants this access extended.

What is Starmer's strategy for negotiating with the wider EU?

Starmer is using bilaterals with Schulz and Macron to get the Germans and the French on side, hoping that having the leaders of two powerful EU countries on his side might push the EU leaders into toning down their demands.

What are Starmer's aspirations regarding security and defense with Germany?

Starmer seems to want an agreement similar to the Lancaster House treaties, which would improve the ability of French and British forces to work together and potentially establish shared stewardship of nuclear stockpiles.

Why is Starmer interested in a similar arrangement with Germany despite their military's current state?

Germany has one of the largest defense budgets in Europe and is a key ally of Ukraine, providing material support during Russia's invasion. Starmer's interest aligns with the need for more cooperation between NATO members to counter Russia's influence in Europe.

What is the current political situation for Schulz and Macron that might affect their influence in the EU?

Schulz's power in the EU is waning with declining support for his coalition, and Macron is far from popular at home with a net approval rating around minus 40%. This could limit their influence in EU negotiations.

What are the historical precedents for the UK trying to negotiate better concessions with the EU via Germany or France?

The UK has tried this approach before without success, most notably when David Cameron tried to convince Angela Merkel for more concessions on freedom of movement before the Brexit referendum but was turned down.

What does the script suggest about the future of UK-EU negotiations?

The script suggests that UK-EU negotiations will likely be a long-winded process unfolding over the next few years, with no quick fix to the complex issues at hand.