Why Russia Destroyed the World's 4th Biggest Lake
Summary
TLDRСкрипт видео рассказывает о катастрофе Аральского моря, вызванной антропогенными причинами. В 1960-х годах Советский Союз начал проект по изменению окружающей среды для развития хлопкового производства, что привело к сокращению поверхности и объема воды в море. Это вызвало экологические и социально-экономические последствия, включая ухудшение климата, снижение уровня сельского хозяйства и возможные будущие конфликты за доступ к воде в Центральной Азии.
Takeaways
- 🌍 Аральское море в Центральной Азии когда-то было четвертым по величине озером в мире, размером с штат Западная Вирджиния, США.
- 🏗️ В 1960-х годах решения Советского Союза начали приводить к уничтожению Аральского моря, что привело к его постепенному сокращению.
- 🚣♂️ До 1960-х годов Аральское море поддерживало огромный рыбной промышленный комплекс, который потерял свою значимость из-за сокращения воды.
- 🌊 Сокращение Аральского моря привело к глобальным экологическим катастрофам и изменению климата в регионе.
- 💧 Из-за перенаправления рек Амударьи и Сырдарья на甘蔗种植, Аральское море потеряло более 95% своего объема.
- 🏞️ Сокращение озера создало новый пустынь, Аралкум, который стал источником саляной пыли и токсинов, вызывающих проблемы со здоровьем и сельское хозяйство.
- 🌡️ Уничтожение Аральского моря привело к изменению климата в Центральной Азии, включая более высокие температуры зимой и летом.
- 🌿 Сокращение озера и изменение климата привели к созданию новых экологических проблем, таких как саляные бури и загрязнение пылью.
- 🌐 Экологические и социально-экономические последствия сокращения Аральского моря могут привести к конфликтам в регионе в будущем.
- 🌿 Центральная Азия, включая Узбекистан и Туркменистан, продолжает быть крупным производителем хлопка, что требует большого объема воды и угрожает оставшимся ресурсам воды.
Q & A
Аральское море когда было включено в список крупнейших озёр мира?
-На протяжении большинства истории человечества Аральское море в Центральной Азии было четвертым по величине озером в мире.
Какие были три озера, которые были больше Аральского?
-Тройка озёр, которые были больше Аральского, включала озеро Виктория в Африке, озеро Супериор в Северной Америке и Каспийское море непосредственно рядом с ним в Евразии.
В какой декаде началась серия решений, приведших к уничтожению Аральского моря?
-Серия решений, принятых Советским Союзом, началась в 1960-х годах.
Что было основным источником воды в Аральском море до 1960-х?
-До 1960-х годов основным источником воды в Аральском море были две могучие реки Центральной Азии - Амударья и Сырдарья.
Какой был процент убывания объема воды в Аральском море к 2020 годам?
-К 2020 годам объем воды в Аральском море уменьшился более чем на 95 процентов.
Какой экологический катаклизм был вызван уничтожением Аральского моря?
-Уничтожение Аральского моря является худшим экологическим катаклизмом за последние сто лет и одним из самых значительных изменений карты Земли в новейшей истории.
Какой проект был инициирован в 1930-х годах Иосифом Сталиным для изменения природы в Советском Союзе?
-В 1930-х годах Иосиф Сталин ввел новый проект под названием 'Большая трансформация природы', предусматривающий изменение и перестройку природы и географии для удовлетворения нужд сельского хозяйства и промышленности.
Какой аграрный урожай был основным источником дохода в регионе после 1960-х?
-После 1960-х годов основным источником дохода в регионе стали хлопковые плантации, которые были называемы Советами 'белым золотом'.
Что стало негативным следствием для окружающей среды из-за строительства каналов для орошения хлопковых плантаций?
-Строительство каналов для орошения хлопковых плантаций привело к снижению уровня Аральского моря, ухудшению качества почвы из-за чрезмерного использования пестицидов и удобрений, а также к появлению новых пустынь, вызывающих салообразующие бури.
Какой процент площади Аральского моря сохранился к 2020 годам?
-К 2020 годам осталось менее 10 процентов площади Аральского моря.
Какой экономический сектор был наибольшим потерпевшим от уничтожения Аральского моря?
-Рыболовный сектор был наибольшим потерпевшим, так как коммерческая рыбаловство в Аральском море стало невозможным к 1987 году из-за сокращения объема воды и повышения ее засоления.
Outlines
🌊 Аральское море: история и катастрофа
Аральское море в Средней Азии было четвертым по величине озером в мире, размером с штат Западная Виргиния, США. В 1960-х годах советские решения привели к его постепенному уничтожению. В XXI веке озеро сократилось до 10% первоначального размера, и более 95% его воды исчезли. Это стало одним из худших экологических катастроф за столетие и одним из крупнейших изменений карты Земли в современной истории. До 1960-х Аральское море существовало тысячелетия в пустынях Средней Азии, получая воду из двух рек: Амударьи и Сырдарьи. Из-за низкого уровня осадков и высокой темпы испарения, озеро поддерживало равновесие между потерями и поступлением воды. Геополитическое значение озера было высоким, оно было частью границ Китая и России. В 1930-х годах Сталин начал 'Великую трансформацию природы', в рамках которой планировалось изменение ландшафта Средней Азии для развития сельского хозяйства и промышленности, что привело к созданию каналов для灌溉 новых земель в Узбекистане и Туркменистане.
🏞️ Эффекты советской политики на Аральское море
После построения каналов, которые отводили воду от рек Амударьи и Сырдарьи для irrigation новых хлопковых плантаций, Аральское море начало быстро уменьшаться. Недостаток воды и увеличение температуры поверхности воды ускорили процесс испарения. В результате, к 1998 году озеро потеряло 80% своего объема, и к 2014 году 95% его воды было испарено. Оставшиеся от Аральского моря земли превратились в пустыню, которая теперь называется Аральский песок. Экономика района, в том числе рыболовство, ушла в прошлое, и город Эрол, который раньше был центром рыболовства, теперь находится на расстоянии более 100 километров от воды. Промышленность хлопка в Узбекистане и Туркменистане продолжает существовать, несмотря на экологические последствия.
🌬️ Климатические изменения и экологические последствия
Уничтожение Аральского моря привело к изменению климата в Средней Азии. Озеро сыграло роль в модерации погоды, но без него температура зимой снизилась, а летом возрастает. В результате形成了新的沙漠——Аральский песок, который создает塩分 и пыльные бури, которые распространяются на большие расстояния и влияют на сельское хозяйство и здоровье людей. Пыльные бури несут с собой токсичные вещества, связанные с чрезмерным использованием пестицидов и удобрений, что приводит к ухудшению состояния здоровья населения и снижению экологии в регионе.
🌍 Глобальные экологические последствия и будущие конфликты
Пыльные бури, образованные из Аральского песка, распространяются по всему миру, включая Норвегию и Антарктику. В регионе Аральского моря рождаются детьми с аномалиями, и уровень смертности среди детей высокий. Глобальное изменение климата и местные факторы приводят к ускорению таяния ледников, что сокращает количество снега и воды в реках Амударьи и Сырдарьи. Это создает потенциал для будущих конфликтов между странами Средней Азии из-за нехватки воды для сельского хозяйства и промышленности.
🌐 Геополитические последствия и конфликты за ресурсы
Сокращение воды в реках Амударьи и Сырдарьи может привести к конфликтам между странами Средней Азии, особенно Узбекистаном и Таджикистаном, которые зависят от воды для своих хлопковых плантаций и энергетики. Узбекистан, находящийся в более благоприятном положении по контролю над ресурсами, может использовать этнические конфликты для получения доступа к водным ресурсам и позиций на геополитическом поле. Россия и Китай могут также играть роль в этом конфликте из-за своих геополитических интересов в регионе.
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Mindmap
Keywords
💡Аральское море
💡Советский Союз
💡Хлопок
💡Экологическая катастрофа
💡Амударья
💡Сыр Дарья
💡Эвапotation
💡Коттоновые плантации
💡Климатические изменения
💡Пыльные бури
💡Гидроэлектростанции
Highlights
The Aral Sea was once the fourth largest lake in the world, comparable in size to West Virginia.
In the 1960s, Soviet decisions led to the destruction of the Aral Sea, causing it to shrink rapidly.
By the 2020s, the Aral Sea had reduced to less than 10% of its original size.
The disappearance of the Aral Sea is considered one of the worst environmental catastrophes of the past century.
The Aral Sea's equilibrium was maintained by a balance between evaporation and water inflow from two major rivers.
The Soviet Union's 'Great Transformation of Nature' aimed to increase agriculture and industry by diverting river water for irrigation.
Cotton became known as 'white gold' and was a primary crop grown in the newly irrigated lands.
The construction of inefficient canals led to significant water loss through leaks and evaporation.
The reduction in water flow to the Aral Sea disrupted its delicate balance, leading to rapid shrinkage.
The Aral Sea's shrinkage created a positive feedback loop, increasing evaporation rates as it lost water.
By 2014, 95% of the Aral Sea's water volume had evaporated.
Uzbekistan remains a top global cotton producer, with cotton being a significant part of its economy.
The collapse of the Aral Sea led to the demise of the local fishing industry and the loss of livelihoods.
The Aral Sea used to moderate the climate of Central Asia, but its disappearance has led to more extreme temperatures.
The drying up of the Aral Sea has resulted in the creation of a new desert, the Aralkum.
Salty dust storms from the Aralkum desert have contaminated cotton fields and caused health issues.
The overuse of pesticides and fertilizers has polluted the region and affected human health.
The Aral Sea region's demographic changes and water scarcity could lead to future conflicts over water resources.
The melting of glaciers due to less precipitation and dust storms could exacerbate water scarcity.
The potential for conflict in Central Asia over water resources is increasing due to demographic and climate changes.
The Aral Sea's environmental disaster serves as a cautionary tale about the consequences of altering nature.
Transcripts
for most of human history the Errol sea
in Central Asia was the fourth largest
lake in the world at about the same size
as the U.S state of West Virginia
the only three that were larger than it
were Lake Victoria and Africa Lake
Superior and North America and of course
the Caspian Sea directly next door to it
in Eurasia but then in the 1960s a
series of decisions taken by the Soviet
Union began to destroy the Aral Sea and
over the decades ever since it has been
shrinking and shrinking and shrinking at
the current time now in the 2020s what
little remains of the Aral Sea is less
than 10 of its original size back before
the 1960s while more than 95 percent of
its original water volume has simply
disappeared for all intents and purposes
the arrow sea has died and the
relatively sudden disappearance of a
lake this large here has carried with it
profound and unforeseen consequences
that are pushing the entire region of
Central Asia towards Calamity and War it
is without exaggeration the greatest way
the map of the Earth has changed in
recent history and the worst
environmental catastrophe of the past
hundred years and it was entirely 100
engineer to happen by Mankind's own
arrogance
before the 1960s the Aral Sea had
existed here within the dry steps of
Central Asia for thousands of years its
location in nearly the center of the
Eurasian continent meant that it was
located in an area with very little
rainfall and surrounded by deserts with
nearly 1500 kilometers between the lake
and the nearest body of oceanic water in
the Black Sea as a result only about a
fifth of the Aral Seas water supply ever
actually came from rainfall and that
meant that the remaining four-fifths of
its water supply came entirely just from
the two Mighty rivers of Central Asia
that fed it the amudaria that begins in
the pamir mountains of modern day
Tajikistan and the sear Daria beginning
in the tianchon mountains of modern day
Kyrgyzstan naturally being located in
the middle of a desert the arrow sea
suffered from a high rate of evaporation
but for most of its history the Seas
evaporation rate was roughly equal to
the same amount of water that flowed
into it from the rivers and the limited
rainfall a delicate balance of
equilibrium between evaporation and
water inflow existed here for centuries
and thus the season existence was
present across most of human history and
almost always defined local geopolitics
it formed the westernmost Frontier of
the advancing Chinese Tang Dynasty in
the 8th century and became the frontier
of the advancing Russian Empire A
Thousand Years Later by the 20th century
the entirety of Central Asia including
the Aral Sea was dominated by the Soviet
Union in the 1930s Joseph Stalin
introduced a new program in the country
called the Great transformation of
nature involving the Soviets reworking
and reshaping their nature in their
geography to better suit their
Agriculture and Industry by the early
1960s under the Khrushchev
Administration the great transformation
of nature had turned its eye towards
reshaping the geography of Soviet
Central Asia the plan was to build out a
vast system of canals that would divert
water from the amudharya and surdaria
rivers and irrigate large stretches of
new Farmland across the desert steps of
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan new Farms
that would primarily be growing with the
Soviets were calling white gold cotton
and by the 1970s their Central age
project had gotten even more dire in
1973 on the other side of Eurasia Egypt
went to war with Israel during the Yom
Kippur War Egypt lost the war and they
agreed to a peace treaty with Israel
exchanging their own diplomatic
recognition of the Israeli State for the
territorial return of their Sinai
Peninsula and in doing so firmly
switched sides in the Cold War from the
Soviet Camp over to the Western Camp by
1977 the Soviets had quit selling their
weapons to Egypt and the Egyptians
retaliated by suspending all of their
massive cotton exports to the Soviets
and in response to that the Soviets
chose to double down on their
transformation of nature in Central Asia
to more favor their own domestic cotton
production and for a time it actually
worked really well by 1988 the Uzbek SSR
all on its own was the largest exporter
of cotton in the world helped
tremendously by the soviet-made
irrigation canals diverting water from
the AMU and ciradario rivers but the
high price for this abundance of cotton
production in the middle of the desert
was already beginning to become apparent
because as the arrow sea was already
shrinking remember that four-fifths of
the Arrow's water supply came from the
almudaria and Sir Daria Rivers by
diverting water from both of them to
feed new cotton plantations across
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan the Soviets
were depriving that water from reaching
the arrow and the Arrow's delicate
balance of water inflow matching
evaporation rate that had lasted for
centuries was severely disrupted with
the evaporation rate remaining the same
but with the rate of water inflow
severely reduced the Aral Sea began to
quickly die and this wasn't helped by
the fact that the Soviet irrigation
canals were very shodily constructed and
abhorrently inefficient the karakun
canal that was finished in 1988 for
example was carrying up to three cubic
miles of water a year from the almudaria
across 850 miles of the hot and dry
karakum desert in Turkmenistan but
anywhere between 30 and 75 percent of
that water the canal carries is simply
wasted to omnipresent leaks and simple
evaporation as recently as 2012 it was
estimated that only 2 12 percent of the
canal length in Uzbekistan was actually
even waterproofed and so in order to
make up for all these inefficiencies the
uzbeks and turkmen have simply withdrawn
Evermore water from the river to force
more water through the canals and
through the leaks you see under normal
circumstances the AMU and Sir Daria
Rivers would collectively discharge
close to 14 cubic miles of water a year
into the Aral Sea from snowmelt and
Glaciers high up in the tianshan and
pamir mountains to the southeast but
because of the Soviet transformation of
Nature and all the irrigation canals the
water flowing through these Rivers
reaching the Aral Sea quickly dropped by
more than 50 percent to just seven cubic
miles and then because of Egypt's
decision to quit exporting cotton to the
Soviets back in the 70s and the
subsequent Soviet expansion of all the
irrigation canals in Central Asia the
water volume reaching the arrow sea
through these Rivers eventually
plummeted to less than one cubic mile by
the end of the 1980s less than seven
percent of the water Earth that have
been naturally reaching it before the
transformation of nature the Soviets
were effectively sucking these Rivers
dry to irrigate their massive cotton
project and in less than 40 years from
beginning by 1998 the Aral Sea had
already lost 80 percent of its water
volume while its surface area had shrunk
by around 60 percent and by that point
the death of wood little remained of the
sea was almost certain you see as the
sea continued to lose more and more of
water it continued to get shallower thus
the incoming sunlight heated up smaller
volumes of water and thus the water's
surface temperature continued to
increase faster and faster which
increased the rate of evaporation ever
further as the arrow sea continued to
lose water it created this vicious
positive feedback loop where the more
water it lost the more rapidly it would
continue to lose even more by 2014 95
percent of the water volume in the Aral
Sea prior to 1960 had simply evaporated
away to nothing and today little trace
of the former sea remains at all as you
can see in satellite photos like this
one that was just taken in 2021 but what
does continue to remain to the South is
is all of the irrigated Lands still
growing cotton in Uzbekistan and
Turkmenistan Uzbekistan continues to
remain one of the top 10 largest
producers and exporters of cotton in the
world and controls a significant amount
of the worldwide cotton Market
representing around five percent of
global cotton production and around 10
percent of worldwide cotton exports
cotton is therefore uzbekistan's most
significant business accounting for
nearly a fifth of uzbekistan's exports
the industry is state-owned and
dominated by the Uzbek government while
the cotton industry in turmenistan is
smaller but still significant as the
world's 11th largest cotton exporter and
producer but the price that Central Asia
has paid to enable this large cotton
industry to exist namely the destruction
of the Aral Sea is truly unbelievable in
scale and destruction and unprecedented
in human history back in its Heyday the
Errol sea was one of the primary fishing
centers of the Soviet economy 40 000
people were employed in the area's
fishing industry and the arrow produced
about a sixth of all the fish caught
across the entire Soviet Union but by
the 9 1980s as the sea shrank and what
remained of the water rapidly became
saltier the fish all began to die and
disappear already by 1987 commercial
fish harvesting on the Aral Sea had
become Impossible by the 1990s the
salinity levels in what little remained
of the sea had made it impossible for
any fish to survive at all and that
wasn't even the fisherman's only problem
as the sea continued to shrink fishing
towns Villages and ports they used to be
directly on the coastline for centuries
suddenly found themselves dozens to
hundreds of kilometers away from the
actual water the town of Errol was once
home to more than 50 000 people and was
the primary center of the Region's
fishing industry but by 2005 it found
itself more than a hundred kilometers
away from what little remained of the
sea and even after the construction of a
dam that brought some of the water back
it's still to this day finds itself
about 15 kilometers away from the water
consequently the town is withered away
over the decades as tens of thousands of
former residents have been forced to to
move on to Opportunities elsewhere
across the former lake bed you will find
countless fishing boats scattered across
the Wasteland most of which have been
rotting away in the sun now for decades
after having me left abandoned by their
crew the entire fishing industry and
economy around the arrow sea crashed and
died in exchange for the cotton industry
in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to thrive
but that was far from the only severe
consequence while it still existed the
Aral Sea served to greatly moderate the
climate around it in Central Asia cold
and fast winds blowing down from Siberia
in the winter would hit the sea and
soften leading to warmer than usual
temperatures during the winter well
during the summer the sea would soak up
radiation and heat and cool the
temperatures down more than usual thus
the area around the Aral Sea was a lot
more climatically tolerable than
elsewhere across the Central Asian
deserts that would be freezing during
the winter and scorching during the
summer but obviously the arrow sees
destruction also removed these
moderating climate effects and as a
result winds now blow in from Siberia
uninterrupted during the winter and
there is nothing to soak up any of the
heat during the summer consequently the
removal of the Aral Sea has resulted all
on its own in an average temperature
increase between two and four degrees
Celsius during the summer months around
the area where it once existed and
that's not even factoring in any
additional warming coming from global
climate change
further as the lake dried it left behind
a brand new desert in its place the
so-called aralcomm desert and it's
basically just a complete
post-apocalyptic Wasteland you see as
the lake dried up and evaporated away
the water remaining continued getting
saltier and saltier to the point where
by 1998 its salt concentration was 376
grams per liter which is more than 10
times saltier than ocean water is and
more comparable to levels seen in the
infamously salty dead sea between Israel
Palestine and Jordan then as the lake
dried up further more and more of this
salt was left behind on the floor of the
growing aralcomm desert that was
replacing it and without the sea to
moderate the strong winds blowing in
from Siberia to the Northeast the winds
began kicking up the dust and the salt
to generate large-scale salty dust
storms throughout the year and these
dust storms can get huge they're
frequently able to be viewed by
satellites from space and they often
reach widths of 150 to 300 kilometers
across or about the size of New Jersey
and everywhere they go they carry a lot
of salt during the summer months as much
as 30 to 40 percent of these dust storms
volume is just straight up pure salt and
a lot of those Northern and
northeasterly winds blowing down from
Siberia blow all of that salt and dust
across the irrigated cotton fields of
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan which as you
can imagine is not very good for growing
crops now to compensate for this the
uzbeks and turkmen have simply withdrawn
Evermore water from the almudaria to
flush their fields repeatedly and remove
the salt which ultimately means that
crops growing on their farms and
plantations require about four times as
much fresh water to sustain reasonable
growth levels as they need under normal
growing conditions but of course the
problem with constantly having to flush
the soil with water in order to remove
all that salt is not only that it
withdraws ever more water from the
rivers that feed the arrows sea but that
it also washes away the minerals and the
nutrients in the soil that the crops
actually need a crow and so then to
compensate for that the uzbeks and
turkmen have been using an absolutely
insane amount of pesticides and
fertilizer on their desert Cotton Fields
as much as four times the amount that
International Health standards believe
are acceptable and healthy so over the
decades a lot of these overused
pesticides and fertilizers were simply
dumped back into the rivers as runoff
and sent into the arrow sea and so is
the sea shrink these toxins were left
behind on the surface of the new and
growing aralcomm desert as well so now
not only are the dust storms blowing
around a lot of salt but they're also
blowing around a lot of toxins to boots
it probably doesn't also help that
bacteria in the Soviet era there used to
be an island within the Aral Sea known
as volia its location in the middle of
the LLC surrounded by water in the
middle of Central Asia meant that it was
very remote and so the Soviets
constructed a top secret biological
weapons research lab there that lab is
known to have tested numerous biological
agents like Anthrax Bubonic plague and
smallpox among many others and their
safety standards left a lot to be
desired in 1971 an amount of weaponized
smallpox was somehow released from the
lab and infected and killed a few of the
residents in the Lakeside town of Errol
hundreds of people were forcefully
quarantined while tens of thousands more
were vaccinated after the Soviet Union
collapsed the lab was hastily abandoned
by the largely Russian scientists who
worked there in 1992 and then by 2001 as
the arrow sea levels continued to shrink
the island of volia became a peninsula
connected to the mainland several of the
containers within the lab storing
weaponized biological agents were never
properly stored or destroyed in the
Hasty evacuation following the Soviet
Union's collapse and many of them are
known to have developed leaks most
famously in 2002 the United States
intervened to help Uzbekistan with
decontaminating 10 burial sites of
Anthrax on the former Island today the
former island is completely connected to
the rest of the new aralcomm desert and
it's unclear exactly how much of the
biological agents there have gotten into
the Region's already toxic and salty
dust storms regardless the new dust
storms blowing up from the new desert
are known to have caused numerous
negative health effects across the Aral
Sea region toxic chemicals associated
with the overuse of pesticides have been
discovered in the blood and breast milk
of mothers in the area the rate of
infants in the area who were born under
weight or with abnormalities are five
times higher than in Europe the
mortality rate for children younger than
five around the former Aral Sea is now
the highest anywhere in the world
outside of sub-Saharan Africa and there
have been significant increases in the
rates of cancers and lung diseases and
these toxic dusts blow all around the
world erokun desert dust has been
discovered as far away as Norway and
Greenland while toxic pesticides in the
dust have even been discovered
contaminating the blood of penguins in
Antarctica but the worst I side effect
of the arrows these destruction is
something that really hasn't even
happened yet but is almost bound to
happen in the future it will eventually
push Central Asia into one of the
greatest conflicts of the 21st century
you see with the end of the volume of
water in the Aral Sea there's no longer
any significant water evaporation taking
place around it and consequently the
winds blowing in from Siberia that
reached the tianchon mountains and pamir
mountains down in the South and the
southeast are carrying a lot less
moisture than they used to and that
means that there's less precipitation
and snowfall taking place in these
mountains than normally feed the
glaciers that feed the almudarya and
suradaria rivers in the first place and
then to exacerbate that problem the dust
storms now blowing into the mountains
are carrying a lot of salt and dust that
are coating the glaciers and
accelerating their melting process even
further because of these local factors
an additional worldwide climate change
the glaciers in these mountains are Now
Melting at a rate that is 12 times
faster than they were were before the
1960s when the Soviets began the
transformation of nature project and
with less snowfall there's less ability
to replace what is being lost this is
why you pretty often now get spectacular
and viral footage like this clip that
was captured by a British hiker in the
mountains of Kyrgyzstan just a few
months ago back in July of this year
depicting one of these glaciers collapse
now of course these Glaciers are the
primary sources of water that feed the
amudaria and Sir Daria rivers that used
to feed the Aral Sea not to even mention
nearly all of their people's fresh water
supplies
when the glaciers here inevitably melt
away to lumps the little water remaining
flowing into the rivers will present the
nations of Central Asia with potentially
their greatest challenge in history
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan higher up in
the mountains depend on the water
flowing down their steep slopes to
generate nearly their entire supplies of
electricity hydroelectric dams
constructed along the ciradaria provide
more than 90 percent of kyrgyzstan's
electricity while hydroelectric dams
constructed along the almudaria provide
98 of tajikistan's electricity both of
these countries depend on the water
flowing through these Rivers for their
energy Independence and security but as
the water flow inevitably grows less and
less with time they will be incentivized
to construct more dams on their rivers
to capture more of the river's shrinking
energy potential but building more dams
and keeping more of the shrinking water
supply for themselves will inevitably
become an existential threat to the
country's further Downstream the rivers
like Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan man
that also depend on the river's Waters
to irrigate their cotton Industries
because without their cotton it's likely
that both of their governments would go
bankrupt and that's still not to even
mention that ever since the
transformation of nature began here in
the 1960s the Region's demographics have
radically changed 60 years ago back in
1960 Central Asia Only Had a combined
population of about 24 million people
but today there are three times as many
people around at about 75 million and
the country that has contributed the
most towards that overall growth is
Uzbekistan their population has grown by
four-fold over the past 60 years and
there are now roughly as many uzbeks in
Central Asia as all the other ethnic
groups there combined the kazakhs the
kiraj the tajiks and the turkmen
consequently the human demand for water
in Central Asia is multiple times higher
today than it was before the death of
the Aral Sea and it is the uzbeks who
have the strongest single demand the
political borders of all the countries
in Centralia Asia were largely drawn up
by Joseph Stalin nearly a century ago in
order to ensure maximum conflict between
them were they ever to become
independent in the future as they did in
1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed all
of the Region's ethnicities are mixed up
across each other's borders most
infamously evidenced by the Soaps
District found here two chunks of
Uzbekistan that are completely
surrounded by Kyrgyzstan and entirely
populated by ethnic to Geeks as a
consequence of these kinds of soviet-era
policies and tactics there are millions
of uzbeks who live just outside of the
borders of Uzbekistan the state across
regions of Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan Afghanistan and Kazakhstan as
the supply of Central Asia's water in
its two primary Rivers dries up there
will simply not be enough water to
supply everybody's needs and meet
everybody's security and Uzbekistan will
be the most geopolitically well placed
to outmaneuver and dominate the others
in order to ensure that they he will be
the ones to control whatever remains of
the water the fragano valley here is the
population core of Central Asia it is
where the sear Daria River begins
effectively making the valley a lush
Oasis in the middle of the otherwise
empty desert a quarter of Central Asia's
population lives within this Valley and
it is also precisely where the political
borders of Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan all converge to clash the
neck of Tajikistan that stretches up
into the valley in the north is
primarily inhabited by ethnic uzbeks and
yet it largely serves to divide
Uzbekistan the state into two distinct
halves separating their control in the
Valley from the rest of the country
under a pretext of ethnic Liberation
like the Russians have been
experimenting with in Ukraine it's no
longer inconceivable that Uzbekistan
could one day use this as their Casas
ballet as well to attack and invade
Tajikistan at some point in the future
in order to not only secure more of the
Fertile fergana Valley but if they go
for an all-out conquest of Tajikistan
they they can secure the headwaters of
the almudaria as well in order to ensure
their continued access to whatever
remains of the river's depleted water
supplies and at the same time
Turkmenistan continues to divert
enormous volumes of water away from the
almudaria river through their
inefficient CARICOM Canal to irrigate
their own Cotton Fields however nearly
600 000 uzbeks live within Turkmenistan
just across the border from present day
Uzbekistan and they all happen to be
located almost directly adjacent to the
start of the karakum canal that diverts
all of that water away from the
almudaria and away from Uzbekistan if
Uzbekistan utilizes the pretext of
ethnonationalist unification to go to
war with Tajikistan in order to secure
the headwaters of the omudaria river
then it's also conceivable that they
would use the exact same pretext to also
go to war with Turkmenistan in order to
secure and destroy the karakum canal
thus ensuring their own complete control
over the entire River remaining water
supply under that scenario Turkmenistan
will almost certainly collapse as a
state because the CARICOM Canal is where
Turkmenistan still acquires the vast
majority of their own fresh water
supplies for their own people and cotton
industry but on paper Uzbekistan has got
the numbers and the demographic odds on
its side to win this future conflict and
with Russia facing demographic and
Military catastrophe of their own in
Ukraine it is now unlikely that Moscow
would be capable of fending off
uzbekistan's attacks on its supposed
allies Tajikistan in Kyrgyzstan are
theoretically members of the csto
military Alliance essentially Russia's
version of NATO meaning that they could
each appeal to Russia for military
assistance wuru Uzbekistan ever to go on
the offensive but in September of 2022
Azerbaijan attacked Armenia another csto
member State who appealed to the
alliance for support and Russia refused
because they're too busy getting wrecked
in Ukraine Russia is a distracted and
dying Empire and they would likely
possess little ability or will to
interfere with the worsening
geopolitical situation to their South in
Central Asia that potentially leaves
China to intervene but who knows how
willing they would even be to do so with
their own internal concerns in xinjiang
and Tibet zero kovid and foreign policy
objectives more closely focused on
Taiwan regardless of how the events play
out Central Asia is effectively a powder
cake waiting to blow and if I were you I
would be paying a lot closer attention
to what's going on there and
specifically what is happening in
Uzbekistan it may very well become the
country that makes the most headlines
later on this decade ultimately in the
end the Soviet great transformation of
nature certainly worked in the sense
that it did indeed greatly transform the
nature and the environment of Central
Asia forever it just wasn't in the way
that they had hoped their quest to ban
nature to the will of man here is
perhaps one of the greatest lessons to
to face Humanity over its entire
existence when we attempt to play God
and change the way the earth works it's
just like playing with a monkey's paw
and asking it for a wish your wish may
be granted but not at all in the way
that you expect it to be the
environmental curse that the Aral sees
absence has established across Central
Asia will be with us all for a very long
time and the worst of its consequences
have still yet to even manifest
themselves for whenever man attempts to
fight against nature nature will always
win eventually because Nature has
billions of years longer than we've got
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