Can India beat China in the Energy race? : Detailed Case Study

Summary

该视频脚本深入探讨了印度太阳能行业的潜力与机遇，特别是在政府推出屋顶太阳能计划后。脚本分析了政府政策对市场的影响，指出了太阳能行业的增长前景，并强调了印度在硅材料和太阳能电池板生产方面的挑战与机遇。同时，提到了印度太阳能出口市场的快速增长，以及中国在全球太阳能供应链中的主导地位。脚本鼓励投资者和企业家关注太阳能行业的动态，把握政府政策带来的投资机会。

Takeaways

• 📈 政府在市场中扮演关键角色，其政策和预算对股市有显著影响。
• 🌱 印度政府推动的太阳能行业，尤其是屋顶太阳能计划，为投资者和企业家提供了巨大机遇。
• 🔄 太阳能价值链包括硅石开采、硅提炼、多晶硅制造、太阳能电池和组件生产等环节。
• 🏭 印度在多晶硅和硅片生产方面落后，但太阳能电池和组件生产能力正在迅速增长。
• 🌐 由于中国在太阳能价值链中的主导地位，印度有机会通过本土生产减少对进口的依赖。
• 💡 屋顶太阳能计划预计将显著提升太阳能面板的需求，同时促进相关材料和技术的发展。
• 🚀 印度太阳能出口市场正在迅速扩张，特别是在美国市场，提供了巨大的出口机会。
• 💰 政府补贴和激励措施有助于降低太阳能面板的成本，提高其在家庭和工业中的普及率。
• 🔄 通过净计量制度，太阳能用户可以将多余的电力卖回电网，进一步降低电力成本。
• 🏢 印度的太阳能公司，如Adani Solar和Tata Solar，可能因政府政策支持而成为市场的受益者。
• 📊 投资者应密切关注太阳能及其价值链相关股票，以便抓住投资机会。

Q & A

印度市场和全球市场的根本真理是什么？

印度市场和全球市场的根本真理是，当政府这个市场的“教父”发表言论时，听从的人会繁荣，不听从的人则会衰败。

印度政府宣布预算或重大声明时，哪些公司的股票价格会上涨？

每当印度政府发布预算或重大声明时，那些与政府政策相关的公司，如乙醇混合燃料政策下的糖业公司，其股票价格会上涨。

印度政府宣布大量资本支出用于道路建设对水泥行业有何影响？

印度政府宣布大量资本支出用于道路建设，导致水泥行业的股票价格上升，因为这些项目需要大量的水泥。

印度政府在2024年2月1日宣布了什么太阳能行业的重大机遇？

印度政府宣布了一个名为“屋顶太阳能计划”的项目，旨在在一年内在100万个家庭的屋顶上安装太阳能板。

屋顶太阳能计划对太阳能模块的需求有何影响？

屋顶太阳能计划将导致对太阳能模块、太阳能板、太阳能玻璃、电线、逆变器甚至多晶硅的需求激增。

印度政府为鼓励太阳能板安装提供了哪些补贴？

印度政府为安装超过1千瓦时的太阳能板提供超过30万卢比的补贴，对于最贫困的家庭，政府甚至每月免费提供300个单位的电力。

太阳能板的成本和收益如何计算？

太阳能板的成本计算需要考虑面板安装费用、逆变器费用和安装杂费。而收益则是通过节省的电费和可能的太阳能销售收入来计算。

印度在太阳能价值链中的地位如何？

印度在太阳能价值链中主要依赖进口，特别是在多晶硅、硅锭和硅片的生产上。但印度在太阳能电池和模块的生产方面表现较好。

印度太阳能行业面临的主要挑战是什么？

印度太阳能行业面临的主要挑战是多晶硅、硅锭和硅片的生产能力不足，以及与中国等国家在太阳能产品价格上的竞争。

印度太阳能行业的投资和创业机会在哪里？

印度太阳能行业的投资和创业机会在于太阳能板的生产、融资服务、保险服务以及出口市场，特别是随着美国对中国太阳能产品的进口限制，印度的出口潜力巨大。

印度政府如何支持太阳能行业的发展？

印度政府通过提供补贴、免费电力、进口关税等措施来支持太阳能行业的发展，同时也鼓励国内生产以减少对中国的依赖。

Outlines

00:00

🌐 政府政策对市场的影响

该段落讨论了政府政策对印度市场以及全球市场的影响。政府被视为市场的“教父”，其发言和政策变动直接影响着市场的繁荣与衰败。文章以印度政府为例，说明了政府预算发布或重要公告时，某些公司的股票价格会上涨，而另一些则会下跌。通过乙醇混合的例子，说明了政策变动如何迅速影响特定股票的价格。此外，还提到了政府在公路建设上的大量资本支出如何带动经济增长和就业，以及水泥股票的非凡回报。

05:00

💡 太阳能行业的机遇与挑战

这一部分深入探讨了太阳能行业在印度的机遇与挑战。首先，通过计算太阳能板的成本和家庭电费的节省，说明了太阳能板对印度家庭的经济意义。然后，讨论了印度在太阳能价值链中的位置，特别是中国在硅材料和太阳能电池板生产方面的主导地位。此外，还提到了印度政府为推动国内生产和减少对中国依赖所做的努力，以及印度太阳能产品出口的快速增长。

10:01

🏭 太阳能产业链的国际竞争

本段内容聚焦于太阳能产业链的国际竞争格局。详细讨论了从硅矿石到太阳能电池板的整个生产过程，以及不同国家在这一过程中的角色。特别指出了中国在硅材料和太阳能电池板生产上的领先地位，以及印度在这方面的落后。同时，提到了由于中国对穆斯林少数民族的压迫，美国开始转向印度进口太阳能产品，为印度提供了巨大的出口机会。

15:02

🚀 抓住太阳能行业的黄金机会

最后一段总结了整个视频脚本的核心观点，强调了政府政策对市场的重要性，以及印度在太阳能行业中的机遇。提到了印度政府对于推动国内太阳能生产的支持，以及太阳能电池板出口市场的蓬勃发展。强调了印度需要在太阳能产业链中实现自给自足，以减少对中国的依赖。最后，鼓励投资者和企业家关注太阳能行业，利用当前的政府政策和市场需求，寻找投资和创业的机会。

Keywords

💡印度市场

印度市场是指印度国内的经济交易和商业活动领域。在视频中，印度市场被用来特指股票市场，其中政府的政策和预算对股票价格有重大影响。例如，当政府宣布支持乙醇混合燃料时，糖业股票价格上升，因为乙醇的生产需要大量的甘蔗，而印度是甘蔗的过剩生产国。

💡政府预算

政府预算是指政府为了实现一定的经济和社会目标，对一定时期内（通常为一年）的财政收支所做的计划和安排。在视频中，印度政府的预算发布和重大公告对市场有着深远的影响，尤其是对特定行业的股票价格。

💡太阳能

太阳能是指通过太阳能电池板等设备将太阳光能转换为电能的技术。在视频中，太阳能被视为印度的一个巨大机遇领域，特别是在政府推出屋顶太阳能计划后，预计将大幅增加对太阳能模块的需求。

💡屋顶太阳能计划

屋顶太阳能计划是印度政府推出的一项旨在鼓励家庭在屋顶安装太阳能电池板的政策。该计划通过提供免费电力和补贴来刺激太阳能的使用，以减少对传统能源的依赖并促进可再生能源的发展。

💡多晶硅

多晶硅是太阳能电池板制造过程中使用的一种重要材料，它是硅的一种形式，用于捕获阳光并转换为电能。在视频中，多晶硅的生产和供应链对印度太阳能行业的发展至关重要。

💡价值链

价值链是指一个产品从原材料阶段到最终产品阶段所经历的一系列生产活动和成本结构。在视频中，太阳能价值链包括从硅石的开采到太阳能电池板的制造和安装。

💡经济规模

经济规模是指生产量增加时单位成本下降的现象，这是因为固定成本在更大的生产规模中分摊得更薄。在视频中，印度太阳能行业通过实现经济规模，有望降低太阳能电池的价格，从而与中国市场竞争。

💡出口机会

出口机会指的是一个国家或地区产品在国际市场上销售的潜力和可能性。在视频中，由于中国在太阳能行业的某些问题，印度的太阳能电池出口市场迎来了快速增长的机会。

💡投资者

投资者是指那些为获取未来收益而购买股票、债券或其他金融资产的个人或机构。在视频中，投资者通过关注政府政策和市场动态，寻找投资太阳能行业的机会。

💡企业家

企业家是指创办和管理企业的人，他们通过创新和承担风险来追求商业机会。在视频中，企业家可以通过理解和进入太阳能行业的价值链，找到创业和增长的机会。

Highlights

政府在市场中扮演着关键角色，当政府发言时，听从者繁荣，不听从者衰败。

印度政府是市场的“教父”，其政策和预算对股市有直接影响。

乙醇混合政策的宣布导致糖业股票上涨，因为乙醇是由甘蔗等原料制成。

政府宣布大量资本支出用于道路建设，导致水泥股票价格上涨。

2024年2月1日，印度总理宣布了太阳能领域的新机会，即屋顶太阳能计划。

屋顶太阳能计划旨在在1年内为1亿家庭安装太阳能板，政府将为安装太阳能板的家庭提供免费电力。

太阳能行业的增长预计将带来对太阳能模块、太阳能板、太阳能玻璃、电线、逆变器和多晶硅的巨大需求。

屋顶太阳能计划预计将显著提升太阳能面板的需求，尤其是在印度政府提供补贴的情况下。

太阳能板的安装成本和电力节省之间的数学计算表明，太阳能板在长期内是一个经济上可行的投资。

太阳能板的价值链包括从硅石到硅锭、硅片、太阳能电池和最终的太阳能板的制造过程。

中国在太阳能价值链中占据主导地位，特别是在硅材料和太阳能电池的生产上。

印度的太阳能电池生产能力约为60吉瓦，但对硅锭和硅片的生产仍然依赖进口。

印度的太阳能模块生产能力在过去3年中显著增长，并有望在未来几年内进一步扩大。

由于中国的人权问题，美国开始从印度进口太阳能电池，为印度的太阳能出口提供了巨大机会。

印度政府对太阳能模块征收25%的进口税，以支持国内生产和企业。

印度的太阳能公司，如Adani Solar和Tata Solar，如果能帮助印度在太阳能领域实现自给自足，将获得政府的支持和市场繁荣。

投资者和企业家应密切关注太阳能及其价值链相关的股票，以便在市场中找到投资和商业机会。

印度的太阳能行业正处于增长阶段，政府的支持和市场需求为投资者和企业家提供了丰富的机会。

通过深入了解太阳能行业的价值链，投资者和企业家可以更好地把握市场动态，发现投资和创业的黄金机会。

Transcripts

hi everybody the V truth in the Indian

market and for that matter any Market in

the world is that whenever The Godfather

speaks those that listen to him prosper

and those who don't they simply perish

in this case The Godfather of our Market

is none other than the government of

India and every time the budget releases

or whenever the government makes a grand

announcement there is always a set of

companies whose stock prices go up and

certain companies whose stock prices go

down you don't believe me take the

example of ethanol blending as soon as

the announcement of ethanol blending was

done the sugar stocks shot up why

because ethanol is made out of rice corn

wheat and sugar cane and India has a

surplus of sugar cane which was to be

used for ethanol so you know what the

sugar stock started rising up whereby

they shot up by 14% in Just 2 weeks

while ugar sugar works went up from 87

Rupees to 100 rupees dalmia bhat sugar

went from 332 Rupees to 446 rupees and

balamuri Chi Mills went up from 365 to

370 rupees similarly when the government

announced huge capital expenditure into

roads the Cen stocks of India saw a

rally in fact in the past 5 years the

cimen stocks of India have seen an

extraordinary return due to the most

ambitious Highway projects in India

building on the massive tripling of the

capital expenditure outlay in the past 4

years resulting in huge multiplier

impact on economic growth and employment

creation the outlay for the the next

year is being increased by

11.1% to 11 lakh

11,11 CR rupees FY 24 for cement has

been very good with almost 16% growth

talks like India cements ACC uh even uh

grassin for example these are the ones

that are really moving up sharply this

is the reason why every time the budget

or the PM makes an announcement the

investors watch it very very carefully

so that they can pick the best stocks in

the market and you know what guys on 1st

of February 2024 one such announcement

was made by the prime minister of India

and this again points towards a huge

opportunity in the Solar sector of India

this announcement was about something

called the rooftop solar

[Applause]

scheme solar panels to be installed in 1

CR house es this

year rooftop

[Music]

solar the government would provide free

electricity to 1 CR households in India

who opt to install solar panels on their

rooftops and not so surprisingly Vari

Renewables adani green energy and

insulation Energies saw a rise in their

prices this is absolutely insane isn't

it but you know what guys when the

execution of this project happens with

10 million panel installations India

will see a huge surge in demand for

solar modules solar panels solar glass

wires inverters and even poly silicon so

if you understand this industry in depth

you can use the knowledge from this case

study to both invest or start a business

in the Solar industry of India so if you

want to be a sharp investor or an

entrepreneur let's Deep dive and try to

understand what is this solar gold mine

all about what exactly is the rooftop

solar scheme what is the value chain of

rooftop solar which Indian companies

could benefit from the scheme and most

importantly how can you find a golden

opportunity in this

space Cho let's start from the basics

and understand what exactly is rooftop

solar rooftop solar is nothing but the

installation of solar panels on your

rooftop and once installed the

generation of solar energy is done at no

cost at all and since India is in the

tropical belt we get so much sunlight

that even poor households in India can

use solar energy to fulfill their energy

requirements this is the reason why the

Prime Minister launched something called

the

PM

[Music]

Roop wherein the government is

essentially providing over 30,00 ,000

rupees in subsidies to those who install

solar panels over 1 kwatt hour and 1 Kow

hour capacity needs around 3 to four

solar panels and for 1 CR poorest

families who are installing these solar

rooftops the government is even giving

away 300 units of free electricity every

single month this is the reason why it

is expected to boost the demand of solar

panels by a large large extent but this

breaks the question in a country where

most people earn less than 30,000 rupees

a month how does installing a solar

panel worth 1.8 lakh rupees make any

sense at all well let's do the math and

understand this better a typical Indian

household usually requires around 350

units as in 350 Kow hour per month and

the average power tariff is around 6.5

rupees per kilowatt hour so this way the

electricity bill turns out to be 2275

rupes per month and 27,300 rupees per

year now a 3 Kow solar panel costs an

average of around 1.8 lakh rupees but if

you look at the government subid the

government has offered only 30,000 rupes

per kilowatt hour up to 2 kwatt hour and

18,000 rupees for the third kilowatt so

if my household is using 3 kwatt hour I

would get a subsidy of 78,000 rupees in

total so the average cost of panel

installation is 1.8 lakh rupees minus

78,000 rupes equal to 1ak 2,000 rupes

but along with that you would also need

an inverter worth 50,000 rup and

miscellaneous cost in installation of

around 20,000 rup so the total budget

needed for this would be 1.72 lakh

rupees including the subsidy so if your

power bill is 27,300 rupees and your

solar panel cost 172,000 rupees then it

would take you 6.3 years just to break

even but the best part is that the life

of a solar panel is over 25 years and

most companies will give you 25 years

warranty as well that means after 6

years you could get 18.7 years of free

electricity on top of that with the

scheme you you can even sell electricity

that you do not need at all and this is

something known as net metering so if

your electricity is connected to a grid

the extra electricity goes back into the

power grid which gives you credit and

eventually cuts down on your regular

electricity bills now the primary

question over here is which Indian

companies are going to benefit from the

scheme well firstly if you look at this

number 1.8 lakh Rupees is a huge amount

for most Indian households and here if a

finance year like Bajaj Finance stepson

and gives them an offer to pay emis in

four to 5 years then the adoption will

happen much faster and both solar panel

companies as well as finance companies

like Bajaj finance will benefit so

here's where there's a huge demand in

selling solar panels selling financing

services and also Insurance Services

because people will be skeptical to

install solar panels because 6.3 years

to break even is a big big time span

this is the first segment of

opportunities for both investors as well

as entrepreneurs and this brings us to

the second segment and here's where we

need to go deep inside the solar panel

so that we can understand what are the

opportunities in the materials needed

for the solar panel you see the most

fundamental element used in solar panels

is poly silicon which is essentially a

processed version of silicon and silicon

is so so crazy that it is super

efficient in capturing the sunlight and

it is so efficient that even after 25

years it can work at 80% efficiency and

it is so cheap that it is 1,000 times

cheaper than its competitors like

gallium arenite so just like lithium is

for Ev oil is for IC engines and silicon

is for solar panels and you know what

silicon is the second most abundant

material on Earth so the question is if

silicon is available in large quantities

and we have maximum sunlight then

problem solved right India can export

energy with solar and we could become

the richest country in the world right

well not really because even if silicon

is available in large quantities it does

not mean every country has the

manufacturing capacity to process it and

turn it into solar cells in fact since

2021 you would be shocked to know that

2/3 of India's solar cell manufacturing

came from Imports so the question is who

controls the solar value chain and what

are India's Trends and how do we as

entrepreneurs tap into this opportunity

well the answer to this starts with

silica so let's understand the value

chain of silica silica makes up almost

60% of Earth's crust and it is present

in 95% of the Rocks so the first step is

mining silica then the the next step is

processing it using Coke and purifying

it with oxygen to create 97 to 99% pure

silicon this process requires a ton of

electrical energy then in the next step

it is purified to

99.99% by making it react with hydrogen

chloride Heating and Distilling it and

finally you will have polysilicon which

is the fundamental material in the solar

cell manufacturing then the next step is

melting this polysilicon and converting

it into large cylindrical blocks called

ingots these ingots are then turned into

thin discs called silicon Wafers and

these Wafers are then further processed

to turn them into solar cells and

finally these cells when assembled

together and framed they make up a solar

panel and this solar panel is then

installed in our houses and industries

this is the process of going from silica

to a solar panel if this is clear to you

let's understand the major countries and

the geopolitics involved in this

[Music]

process let's start with silica silica

is mined in more than 60 countries and

as of 2018 the world's largest producers

were United States Netherlands Spain and

Oman but you know what guys when it

comes to processing silica to turn it

into silicon this chart suddenly looks

very very different and surprisingly

only one country leads the chart with

69% market share which country is this

it is none other than China and China is

so far ahead that out of 9 million tons

of silicon produced in the world in 2023

6.6 million tons were only produced in

China and then the second largest

producer was Russia at 620,000 metric

tons and if you look at India we only

produced 60,000 tons of silicon so we

are 100 times behind China and because

China leads with silicon it also leads

with poly silicon and the scary fact is

that 75% of the world's entire poly

silicon in 2020 was only produced in

China so we have a very huge dependency

on China and here's where some people

might come up and say bro so what we can

control the rest of the value chain

right well unfortunately from ingage to

Wafers to solar cells and even modules

China controls more than 80% of this

entire Valu chin so this breaks the

question where does India stand well you

would be shocked to know that India

imported 100% of its wafers in 2021 from

China only whereas our on production of

polysilicon ingots in w wers was

virtually zero so the point to be noted

over here is that whichever company

manages to produce polysilicon ingots or

Wafers for India that company will have

the support from the Indian government

because this is a gold mine for us as a

country so if you're an entrepreneur or

an investor here's a big big opportunity

for you but the agitating question over

here is what on Earth are we going to do

with all the sunlight when we can't

produce the most fundamental material

needed to make solar panels well well

this is where the Adis have stepped in

by starting a poly silicon Factory in

Gujarat in December 2022 on top of that

they've launched India's first solar

Ingot producing plant in 2022 and by

2025 the Adan intend to achieve 2 gaw

capacity with their plant secondly when

it comes to cells and panels India is

doing much better India's solar cell

production capacity is around 6 gaw per

year and when we duck deer we couldn't

find the biggest manufacturers in this

space at all so either this space is

completely untapped or the players are

completely undiscovered so if you know

of any such companies please drop them

in the comments below now what's

fascinating is that India's export of

solar cells have increased from $108

million from January to August 2022 to

$1.3 billion in the same period in 2023

so that is a 12 times increase in just

one year so this breaks the question how

is our exports Rising so fast if China

is still the key player in in the space

well as it turns out the biggest reason

is China's mistreatment and forced labor

practices on the UR Muslim Community and

we all know what's happening to them in

China on the streets of Shing Jang there

is still a tension and signs of what

this place has been

through heavy police regular stops a

sense they're always

watching it is now Infamous for its

brutal oppression of the Muslim weer

minority a huge cash of data hacked from

Chinese police computer servers has

revealed new evidence on how China has

treated imprisoned weager Muslims in the

country Shing Jang region so because of

this the US suddenly stopped importing

from China and started importing from

India and as of December 2023 the United

States alone I repeat the United States

alone accounted for

98.5% of the total exports of solar

cells which means here again we have a

huge export opportunity because the

United States is buying from us

similarly even the Indian government has

announced import duties of 25% on the

sales this means the government itself

is purposefully making it easier for the

Indian businesses to survive in this

space so this points towards a huge

business and investment opportunity in

India right the answer is yes and no yes

you all know why no because even with

the custom tax the imported Chinese

modules still remain a little bit

cheaper than the Indian products so what

do we need to do we need to achieve

economies of skill with this demand from

the US so that we can quickly drop our

prices by 25 to 30% so that we can

compete with China for our exports after

the subsidy is removed so if you're an

investor who's going to invest in the

space do compare the cost of

manufacturing of your portfolio

companies with a Chinese cost and that

to without subsidy because that is where

the real mod of the company lies but as

of now the morel of the story is that

China is still leading this space and

this brings us to the fin final stage

which is modules or solar panels and

here's where you would be delighted to

know that India's module production

capacity has grown from 15 gaw hour to

38 gaw hour in just 3 years and

furthermore it is expected to almost

triple to 110 gaw hour by 2026 and not

just production even India's exports of

modules has jumped exponentially by 364

in fi23 itself so

364 again points towards a huge

opportunity in the Solar module space

for people like you and here's where we

have the biggest players in the space

who are adani solar axite Tech energy MV

photovoltic and many more as mentioned

in this table so do study these

companies so that you can find

Opportunities both as investors as well

as entrepreneurs so with all the

government advantage and the dire need

for solar panels all the entities in the

supply chain will benefit if they beat

China or they help India beat China by

catalyzing the manufacturing in India so

if if you look at the state of the solar

industry of India here's where we need

to truly be atbar and whichever company

enables India to become atbar that

company will go on to benefit because

the Godfather will help these companies

out now I don't know if you realize this

guys but then the tatas and the Adan are

now beneficiaries of the government wave

because they're helping India become aor

so tomorrow if Tata solar or adani solar

goes on to become a listed company and

goes on to see extraordinary rise in the

stock prices you should not be surprised

because both these companies eventually

if successful are helping India recover

from a dire situation whereby we are

dependent on a rival for an important

element of our industry and our progress

apart from this there's a long list of

entities that I'll share in the

description so that you can study these

companies and understand their

businesses both as investors and as

students of business so this brings us

to the last question with all this drama

what are the most important takeaways

that you guys are supposed to take take

away both as investors and as

entrepreneurs of India number one the

government is and will always remain The

Godfather of the market so if you want

to progress listen to The Godfather

lesson number two India is in a dire

need and is far far behind in terms of

polysilicon wafer and Ingot production

so no matter how small or big you are

the force of the government will support

you to become a giant player so do look

into the space both as investors and as

entrepreneurs with utmost interest

number three the solar cell export

Market of India is booming right now and

this time we have the unique advantage

of achieving economies of scale so that

we can drop our prices by 25 to 30% and

then compete with the Chinese prices and

during this sweet time if we end up

achieving economies of scale if we end

up dropping our prices then we would

open up a huge export potential all

across the world so as an investor you

can go bullish on these companies and

help these companies become a

beneficiary in this space and last and

most obviously do keep an eye on the

solar and solar value chain stocks this

was the complete overview of the ripple

effect and the opportunities in the

Solar space due to the implementation of

the PM suod yoga that's all from my side

for today guys if you learn something

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much for watching I will see you in the

next one

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