Is the UK prepared for a war?

Summary

The transcript of the Sky Sports Real Talk episode discusses the readiness of the UK for a potential war, given the current global threats and lack of a comprehensive National Defense plan. It highlights the challenges posed by countries like Russia, China, North Korea, and the complexities of modern warfare. The conversation involves Deborah Haynes, Defense and Security Editor, and Rob Clark, an Army reservist and policy director, who emphasize the need for increased defense spending, national resilience, and a reevaluation of the UK's military capabilities and preparedness.

Takeaways

• 🌍 The world is currently in a dangerous state with multiple ongoing conflicts and tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas disputes, and potential escalations from China, North Korea, and Iran.
• 🇬🇧 The UK may not be fully prepared for a war despite spending more than 2% of GDP on defense, due to the lack of a comprehensive National Defense plan.
• 🤔 There's a concern about the UK's ability to mobilize reserves and maintain communication with former military personnel in times of crisis, affecting national resilience.
• 💥 The current global threat landscape challenges the long-held assumption of Western countries that life under the rule of law and economic growth can continue without significant disruption.
• 🔄 There's a shift from a post-war to a pre-war world, with potential for multiple theaters of conflict that could escalate into a global war.
• 🇨🇳 Authoritarian regimes like China and Russia have been investing heavily in their military forces, posing a different level of military power and willingness to use it.
• 🇫🇮 Finland's example highlights the importance of reserve forces in national resilience, with a large reserve force relative to its population.
• 🔄 The UK's defense efforts have been historically led by the Prime Minister and the cabinet office, emphasizing a whole-of-nation approach.
• 💰 Economic pressures, political considerations, and ideological reasons contribute to the UK's current defense spending and preparedness levels.
• 🛠️ There's a need for capability assessment of the armed forces to address gaps in defense, rather than focusing solely on percentages of GDP spent on defense.
• 🏭 The UK's industrial base and its ability to rapidly produce weapons and equipment for warfare is a key consideration for national defense and deterrence.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the Sky Sports Real Talk series?

The main theme of the Sky Sports Real Talk series is to delve into topics that aren't often spoken about in a sporting context, providing a platform for sports people to discuss issues with depth and insight.

What does the phrase 'the boxer in me' signify in the context of the transcript?

The phrase 'the boxer in me' signifies the inner strength and resilience of the speaker, who is using the metaphor to describe their determination not to show vulnerability or weakness in the face of challenges.

What is the significance of the statement 'when he died obviously a part of me died'?

The statement reflects the deep emotional impact and loss felt by the speaker, indicating a close relationship or bond with the person who passed away, to the extent that their death felt like a part of the speaker's own self had died too.

What does the term 'National Defense plan' refer to in the context of the UK?

The term 'National Defense plan' refers to a strategic and comprehensive plan that outlines the UK's preparedness and response to potential military conflicts or threats. It includes mobilization of resources, protection measures, and coordination of various government and military efforts.

How does the current world situation compare to the Cold War era according to the defense secretary mentioned in the transcript?

According to the defense secretary, the current world situation is moving from a post-war to a pre-war world, akin to the tensions and uncertainties experienced during the Cold War era. He suggests that within five years, there could be multiple theaters of conflict involving countries like China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia, which would be a scale unseen since World War II.

What challenges do authoritarian regimes pose to the world order established after World War II?

Authoritarian regimes challenge the world order established after World War II by contesting the assumptions of Western countries that life under the rule of law, liberal democracies, and economic growth can continue unhindered. They invest heavily in their armed forces and are willing to use military power in a hostile way, which threatens the fundamental existence and norms of the world order.

What is the role of the Army Reserve in the UK's defense strategy?

The role of the Army Reserve in the UK's defense strategy is to backfill the British Army headcount in gaps, providing additional personnel and capabilities during times of crisis or conflict. They are also seen as a potential national resilience force that can support domestic resilience efforts.

What are the main reasons for the UK's current level of defense preparedness?

The main reasons for the UK's current level of defense preparedness include economic pressures such as the energy cap and tax cuts, political pressures as defense is not a prioritized election issue, and ideological reasons within the government that prioritize economic stability over increased defense spending.

How does the UK government respond to the allegations of lacking a defense plan?

The UK government responds by stating that the country has robust plans in place for a range of potential emergencies and scenarios, including a government resilience framework, a national risk register, and local resilience forums. However, the detail and specificity regarding a plan for a large-scale conflict like World War III are not provided.

What is the significance of the 'shadow scheme' from the 1930s?

The 'shadow scheme' from the 1930s was a government plan to rapidly build up the UK's industrial base to produce weapons and aircraft in anticipation of war with Germany. It demonstrates the ability of the nation to mobilize resources quickly in response to a perceived threat, providing a historical example of preparedness.

What is the balance between deterrence and preparedness in the UK's defense strategy?

The balance between deterrence and preparedness in the UK's defense strategy relies heavily on nuclear deterrence through the country's nuclear arsenal and NATO membership. However, there is a growing recognition of the need for a more comprehensive national defense plan and preparedness for scenarios beyond nuclear deterrence.

Outlines

00:00

🥊 Introduction to Real Talk: Discussing Unspoken Sporting Topics

The script begins with an introduction to Sky Sports' Real Talk, a new series that aims to delve into topics not commonly discussed in the sports world. The first topic is the emotional impact of the death of a sports personality, highlighting the intrusive thoughts and the emotional challenges faced by athletes. The episode then transitions into a discussion on the UK's readiness for war, considering the country's increased defense spending and the lack of a comprehensive National Defense plan. The conversation involves Deborah Haynes, the defense and security editor, and Rob Clark, an army reservist and policy director, who provide insights into the current global threats and the UK's preparedness.

05:02

🤔 UK Military Preparedness and National Resilience

This paragraph focuses on the UK's military preparedness and the concept of national resilience. It discusses the challenges faced by the UK Armed Forces, including procurement issues, the need for more efficient use of funds, and the pressure on the military to do more with less. The conversation also touches on the lack of a National Defense plan, the reliance on nuclear deterrence, and the importance of NATO membership. Rob Clark shares his perspective as an army veteran and recruiter, highlighting the need for key systems and architecture to enhance national resilience, which is currently lacking due to democratic values and slow mobilization capabilities.

10:02

🌐 Global Threats and Military Comparisons

The discussion moves to global threats and how they impact the UK's military preparedness. The panelists consider the ongoing conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, tensions in the Middle East, and the potential for escalation in China and North Korea. They also compare the UK's military capabilities with other nations, particularly Finland's large reserve forces and France's conscription history. The conversation addresses the economic, political, and ideological reasons behind the UK's defense spending and preparedness levels, emphasizing the need for a shift in mindset and investment in military capabilities.

15:04

🏭 Historical Precedents and Industrial Preparedness

This section delves into historical examples of industrial preparedness, specifically the 1930s shadow scheme, which rapidly built factories to produce weapons in anticipation of World War II. The discussion highlights the UK's ability to mobilize quickly in the past and contrasts it with the current challenges in rearming Ukraine. The conversation also touches on the importance of a strong industrial base for deterrence and the potential need to rebuild such capabilities to prepare for a pre-war world. The panelists emphasize the need for a whole-of-nation effort to build a credible military deterrent and the importance of public support for such an endeavor.

20:06

🛡️ The Role of the Army Reserve and Deterrence

The final paragraph focuses on the role of the Army Reserve and the concept of deterrence. Rob Clark discusses the potential for the Army Reserve to serve as a national capability and resilience force, highlighting the need for structural and appeal changes. The conversation also addresses the balance between deterrence and preparedness, questioning the reliance on nuclear deterrence and NATO membership. The panelists consider the implications of a deterrence failure and the importance of having plans in place for various scenarios. The UK government's response to the allegations of lacking a defense plan is also discussed, with a critique on the adequacy of local resilience forums' preparedness for a major conflict.

Keywords

💡National Defense Plan

A National Defense Plan is a strategic document outlining a country's preparedness and response to potential military threats and conflicts. In the video, the absence of such a plan for the UK is highlighted as a concern, emphasizing the need for a clear and comprehensive strategy to address security challenges in an increasingly dangerous world.

💡Resilience

Resilience refers to the ability of a system or entity to withstand or recover from shocks, disruptions, or adverse conditions. In the context of the video, national resilience is crucial for the UK to effectively respond to and maintain stability during crises, including military conflicts.

💡Strategic Reserves

Strategic Reserves are resources, including military personnel and equipment, set aside to be rapidly mobilized in times of national emergency or war. The video points out issues with the UK's ability to communicate with and mobilize these reserves, which is essential for a robust defense strategy.

💡NATO

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military alliance of 30 countries from North America and Europe, formed to provide collective defense against external threats. In the video, NATO's role in the UK's defense strategy is discussed, emphasizing its importance in maintaining national security.

💡Military Preparedness

Military Preparedness refers to the state of readiness and capability of a country's armed forces to respond to and defend against potential threats. The video script discusses the UK's level of military preparedness, questioning its adequacy given the current global security landscape.

💡Global Threats

Global Threats are widespread dangers that pose significant risks to international peace and security. The video script outlines various global threats, such as tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Hamas, and the potential for escalation in China and North Korea, emphasizing the complex and dangerous world the UK operates within.

💡Cold War

The Cold War was a period of geopolitical tension between the Western Bloc (led by the United States) and the Eastern Bloc (led by the Soviet Union) after World War II. The video references the Cold War to compare the current security environment with that historical period, noting the differences in military strategy and preparedness.

💡Nuclear Weapons

Nuclear Weapons are weapons that detonate with an explosive force derived from nuclear reactions, capable of causing massive destruction. The video discusses the role of nuclear weapons in deterrence and the increased destructive power of modern nuclear arms compared to those used in World War II.

💡Procurement Disasters

Procurement Disasters refer to significant failures in the process of acquiring goods or services, often resulting in wasted resources, delays, or inadequate equipment. In the video, such disasters are mentioned as part of the UK's defense challenges, indicating inefficiencies in the allocation and spending of defense budgets.

💡Total War

Total War is a term used to describe a war effort in which a nation uses all its resources and capabilities to fight, often implying a full mobilization of society and economy. The video discusses the potential for a large-scale conflict, comparing it to the global wars of the 20th century and the need for national preparedness.

💡Home Guard

The Home Guard is a term historically used to refer to defense forces organized to protect and defend the homeland, often composed of local volunteers. In the video, the concept is brought up as a potential model for the Army Reserve, emphasizing a domestic focus on national resilience and defense.

Highlights

The UK spends over 50 billion pounds a year on defense, which is more than 2% of GDP, yet there are concerns about readiness for war.

There is an absence of a National Defense plan for the UK, which is a cause for concern in the face of increasing global threats.

The world is becoming more dangerous with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, Taiwan, and China.

The Defense Secretary's statement about moving from a post-war to a pre-war world indicates a shift in global security dynamics.

The UK's military strength has been diminished due to a lack of investment and procurement issues, affecting its overall preparedness.

The UK's reliance on nuclear weapons and NATO membership for deterrence may not be enough in the face of evolving threats.

The concept of national resilience is key to preparedness, but the UK lacks the systems and architecture to support it effectively.

The UK's reserve forces are not as well-prepared or mobilized as they could be, presenting a significant disadvantage in times of crisis.

Comparing the UK's defense preparedness with countries like Finland highlights a gap in the UK's national resilience strategy.

The conversation around conscription and civilian training for war is immature and complex in the UK, reflecting broader societal and political challenges.

Economic pressures, political priorities, and ideological reasons contribute to the UK's defense spending and preparedness challenges.

The UK needs to reassess its defense capabilities and invest strategically to address gaps and build a credible deterrent.

The historical example of the 1930s shadow scheme demonstrates the UK's ability to rapidly build an industrial base for wartime needs.

The current state of the UK's heavy industries and steel production poses challenges for arming and preparing for potential conflicts.

The UK must balance deterrence and preparedness with the reality that significant investments may not immediately show tangible results.

The government's response to concerns about defense planning highlights a reliance on existing frameworks but acknowledges the need for continuous review.

The importance of a comprehensive national defense plan is emphasized, as local resilience forums lack specific plans for war.

Transcripts

the boxer in me was just like don't let

them see you cry don't let them see you

cry welcome to Sky Sports Real Talk the

brand new series where we'll be deep

diving into topics that aren't often

spoken about in a sporting context

you'll hear Sports people talk like

you've never heard them

before when he died obviously a part of

me died this intrusive thought popped

into my head everyone tells you about

being assaulted was true like I just

didn't know what to do Join Me Miriam

Walker KH for real

talk hello this is Tom cheser on the Sky

News Daily standing in for Neil

Patterson on this episode we're delving

into whether the UK is really ready for

a war now given we spend more than 50

billion pounds a year more than 2% of

GDP on defense you'd hope the answer

would be yes but it's not that

straightforward so our defense and

security editor Deborah Haynes has spent

a lot of time considering exactly this

question

why well we don't have a plan we don't

have a National Defense plan and the

government is saying how we're living in

an increasingly dangerous world as we

did during the Cold War but back then

there was a plan for all of this and

right now we don't have one so that's

what I've been looking into that's not

very reassuring but we've got you here

and joining us too is Rob Clark he

served in the Army in both Iraq and

Afghanistan and he's now an army

reservist he's also policy director at

the policy Institute

curia Deborah can we start painting a

picture of what is quite a hostile world

we think the Russia Ukraine war still

going at loggerheads all these years in

you've got Israel Hamas The Wider Middle

East uncertainty we've seen with you

know whether Iran might escalate China

we look at what's happening there in

terms of their belligerence around

Taiwan or what they're doing to Filipino

ships and that's actually really

powerful that you could easily see a

configration there how dangerous is the

world right now really dangerous and the

defense secretary actually who hasn't

been in the job relatively speaking very

long in January said we're moving from a

post-war to a pre-war world and he

talked about within five years there

being multiple theaters and you can only

extrapolate of conflict in China North

Korea Iran and of course Russia war in

Europe on a scale that hasn't been seen

since 19

1945 and of course the Middle East INF

Flames any one of those different crises

contained at the moment within the

borders that they're being contained

within could spark either by accident or

by Design into a global war can we draw

down where that might come from Iran

North Korea you know familiar to us from

the old axis of Evil uh back in the

George Bush days when he was president

but adding Russia and China in the mix

those are two big big militaries what

are the sort of specific things there is

it technological threats is it where

they are is it how the war might start

what are we looking at it's a challenge

to the

fundamental uh existence and World norms

and rules that we've all grown up with

since the end of the second world war

that's what's happening right now so the

assumption that Western countries have

enjoyed really for the last few decades

that life as they know it under the rule

of law with liberal democracies economic

growth uh you know by and large can

happily continue is being contested by

authoritarian regimes and they have

unlike Western countries invested very

heavily and strategically in their Armed

Forces China in particular Russia they

are ramping up weapons production on a

scale that European countries can only

stand and watch by and also relying on

Iran North Korea to help rearm them and

so it's a different level of military

power and willingness to use it in a

hostile way and that's what leaders

today are grappling with because we just

simply haven't had that since the second

world war even something like the Korean

War wouldn't well since the Cold War I

mean in the Cold War you have to

remember that those days were absolutely

dominated by the fear of nuclear

Annihilation the second world war that

use was at a time when only one country

had nuclear arms now we're in a world

where there are several countries that

have nuclear weapons and the actual

blast capacity the destructive force of

these nuclear weapons today are on a

magnitude that is incomparable in terms

of scale to what we saw used in Japan

there was a choreography when dealing

with the warsa pack countries each side

had large arm forces at a high level of

Readiness and they spoke to each other

in a language they understood and there

was a way to deal with moments of

tension moments of potential escalation

and there was also a buffer between the

conventional forces the large scale High

Readiness conventional forces and

nuclear Armageddon but since the end of

the Cold War when all of that thinking

at least on the western side has fall en

away and the size of the conventional

militaries such as here in the UK has

significantly contracted there's less of

a buffer and there's not been as much

attention given to that threat of

nuclear Annihilation that maybe should

begin to happen given the threats from

Russia and when you say that that

choreography it's not just choreography

we used to have a specific plan and

that's what your sources are saying we

just don't have now which seems pretty

extraordinary it blew my mind frankly

we've been looking at the state of the

UK Armed Forces they get a lot of money

invested into them there's been lots of

procurement disasters the money is not

spent as well as it should be government

decisions over time on the armed forces

have been questionable and they've been

wanting the military to do more with

less and that's no secret you know

obviously there's a an absolute need to

invest in our defenses given the threats

that we've just talked about but then

you know looking at the actual state of

of defense and what it's designed for I

was speaking to different sources and it

became apparent that we don't actually

anymore have a National Defense plan we

absolutely rely on our nuclear weapons

to deter threats because obviously we

have that ability to respond with

nuclear force and as importantly as that

our membership of the NATO alliance and

NATO has a huge War plan of course it

does it's that's its entire rais on Deb

is to defend the alliance but back in

the Cold War Days NATO had its plans but

the UK also had a national plan it was

called the government War book and it

had different levels of things to do

lists really a to-do list in the event

of potential war that would complement

the NATO alert so the NATO alert would

go up and the the UK alert would also go

up mean these plans were they're

meticulous they red from anything from

mobilizing the reserves to removing

artwork from London to put them

somewhere more protected and everything

in between from closing hospitals uh or

evacuating hospitals of anyone but the

most sick obviously closing schools

dealing with securing the ports food

supply water supply putting industry on

a war footing so you could produce the

weapons that you need this isn't

something that defense alone

ever did it's a whole of society it's a

whole of society thing and we seem to

have just completely lost that let's

bring in Rob Clark now because you are

an army veteran you're now the policy

director at curia and given given your

experience in recruitment why do you

think we are where we are in terms of UK

preparedness in terms of what Deborah's

outlined there I joined the army at 19

years old I quit University join the

height of the Iraq War to serve in Iraq

I stayed in for tours of Afghanistan and

then I left in 2014 and I joined the

Army Reserves where I still serve now

mainly as a recruiter and I train

reservist recruits in terms of the UK's

effort for preparedness there's a

obviously a huge buzz word going around

which is resiliency and National

resiliency but we're really missing the

Key Systems in architecture which enable

resiliency which authoritarian

governments like China like Russia can

enact very quickly simply because they

aren't beholden to uh liberal Democratic

Values such as we are in the west and we

can see that here in the UK quite

readily in terms of the the lack of the

ability to mobilize the Armed Forces at

a time of great crisis we have done in

the past but not since the second world

war and we can see that very easily

today for instance we have the Reserves

and we've also got the Strategic

reserves now the Strategic reserves is

where in the event of a great crisis or

a great War the idea on paper is that we

can draw recent service so military

personnel from all branches who have

left the military within around eight

years they're still liable for calling

up in times of National Emergency and

War however having spoken quite recently

to several former colleagues and friends

who who left the Armed Forces not not a

single one of them have notified either

the ministry of defense or rather the

department getting in touch with them to

see about the contact details are still

correct and up to dat simple things like

uh the ability to communicate with these

personnel

in order to draw them up in times of

Crisis so that's a huge disadvantage

when it comes to things like National

resiliency and mobilization for our

armed forces and the The Wider Reserve

forces and then we can see parallels

with the rest of Europe just to use

Finland as as a very quick example their

overall Reserve forces are around

900,000 now to put that into context The

Finnish population is around 5 a half

million so if the UK were able to draw

on the same National resilience see and

framework for mobilization we would be

able to draw on a reserve force of

around 4 and a half million which is

understandably uh probably quite

unrealistic finland's obviously shaped

by its you know its very long border

with Russia and its history with Russia

if if we're doing other comparisons and

I think you know the comparison should

always be France right from a military

perspective it's always been who we've

measured ourselves against um since you

know aenor and before that through the

wars and that's slightly inj but for a

bigger country we've also got iron

Advantage as we're in Ireland do we need

to necessarily be like Finland and have

that bigger Reserve Force because that

is a lot we're a bigger country we're a

bigger economy we've got nuclear weapons

and that's for both you do we want to

model celles on Finland do we want to be

closer to France which has a it's

important to mention like France that

conscription only ended in France in

1997 it has a very different approach to

you it's like an allergic reaction over

here the word conscription um we had the

the latvians reintroducing conscription

recently in the wake of what happened in

Ukraine and uh then suddenly our you

know and then our head of our army made

this very important speech where he

talked about civilians training

civilians for war and how you know

armies start wars and civilians end them

which obviously is what you're seeing in

Ukraine with all the civilians that have

been mobilized and then the chief of the

defense staff Admiral saton Rakin came

out in a subsequent speech and said

nobody's talking about conscript ion uh

so it's it's a bit of an immature

conversation I think in the UK Rob can

you break down the reasons economic

reasons political reasons why the UK

doesn't have that level of preparedness

there's really sort of three main

reasons these can be broken down into

economic pressures political pressures

ideological reasons as well within the

government so short term we've got

obviously the energy cap the pension

triple lock for instance tax cuts um

these all are placing immense economic

pressure on the government to not

increase defense spending and

concentrate more on the domestic

political and economic agenda

particularly as we gear into a general

election more longer term there's

immense borrowing and debt incurred

obviously from the Furlow scheme and the

longer lasting impact of covid and

obviously the war in Ukraine as well

which the UK is spending between two and

two and a half billion pounds a year

mainly out of the ministry of Defense

budget for supplementals which is

additional costs the political pressures

are a little bit more nuanced defense

has never really been viewed as an

election year policy and then finally

the ideological reasons why we're not

really investing or we're not really

prepared to invest in in defense um both

the chancellor and the Prime Minister

have insisted that defense spending will

rise but uh the economic stability

growth is a prerequisite for that

increased spending on defense Rob H how

do we fix that you know give given that

reaction to the very idea of

conscription when it was mentioned and

shouted down as de for saying how do you

change that mindset how do you change

those sort of recruitment methods going

forward in terms of developing

capability and resiliency and therefore

deterrence the whole point is to deter

War rather than actually fight it which

is infinitely more costly uh we do have

to increase spending and this comes back

to the wider political debate which is

incredibly timely at the minute

regarding uh defense spending and really

I think the the key thing to do here is

to move away from the conversation of uh

you know 2.5 % of GDP or 3% of GDP uh as

as useful benchmarks as they are and

they help the conversation really we

have to have a capability assessment um

of our armed forces and where these

enormous black holes in capability lie

at the moment we have armed forces that

have been shaped and designed by

Financial envelopes as opposed to a

genuine assessment if you want to look

at the fact that we live in a pre-war

world as the defense secretary has said

and what that then means in terms of the

kind of armed forces that you need are

air defenses for example they're

practically non-existent we have

warships called type 45 destroyers that

are equipped with the air defense

systems that can protect us from

incoming fast missiles but that has to

be in the right place it's not very

heartwarming I mean isn't isn't that the

counterargument to all of this that you

know generals are always going to want

more soldiers Admirals are going to want

more ships and um destroyers but given

that we already spent more than 50

billion pounds and we're still in this

state and the Armed Force just asking

for more money when it they haven't even

matched the capability yet but that's

the thing though isn't it it's not the

Armed Forces we're talking about the

whole of society what people are talking

about in terms of this National Defense

plan of course the ministry of defense

and the military is part of it but it's

something that historically has been led

by the Prime Minister and the cabinet

office it's a central government all of

nation effort and yes it means it would

cost more money but if you're thinking

about building up deterrence genuine

deterant credible military with the

capacity to fight an enduring operation

an industrial base that actually can

build the weapons that then would be

needed to arm any civilians that then

decided they wanted to go and and fight

um then it's it's an effort that the

entire nation um should be supporting if

that's what they believe I I suppose the

question then becomes if if that worst

case scenario is to happen that

industrial base you're talking about in

particular is that even possible these

days well that the question we were

asking and we decided to go back to

the 1930s the last time we were five

years before a war in a pre-war world to

use the defense secretary's words and

the government of the day um came up

with a plan it was called a shadow

scheme they could see the threat of war

with Germany looming they could see that

their industrial base was not sufficient

to be able to build the weapons that

needed the aircraft in particular and

these shadow factories were then built

really rapidly there was one in cast

bromage in Birmingham um and it was a

Farmland it was Countryside and within

months it they built up this enormous

Factory um to build Spitfires and by the

end of the war um this facility had

built almost 12,000 Spitfires I mean the

RF would just be like you know dribbling

with excitement at the idea of even a

fraction of that number over the course

of 20 years let alone 12,000 uh in such

a well almost 12,000 in such a small

short face of time it shows that we can

do it of course we import a lot of our

weapons um our steel industry the heavy

industries that provide the raw material

that you need like the explosives that

you need for ammunition we're seeing a

huge problem with that now in terms of

even trying to rearm Ukraine with the

artillery and the ammunition that it

needs to fight people are talking about

this but the criticism is it's not

happening at the speed um of

relevance

let's just take a quick pause there and

after the break we'll look at what the

UK should be thinking about to make sure

the nation is ready for

war we're back with our security and

defense editor Deborah Haynes and army

reservist Rob

Clark Rob we've talked about threats and

weaknesses in our current defense and

security funding but when it comes to

being an army reservist and training

reservists what are the sorts of changes

that need to be made I see the reserves

as a national capability completely

stand alone to the British army the

whole point of the Army Reserve is to

backfill British Army headcount in gaps

Army 2030 for instance had a policy

where onethird of all British Army

deployments would be from the Army

Reserve and I see that day in day out

year in year out that it is not even

close to hitting that Target now there's

a multitude of reasons for this so the

Army Reserve currently have a number of

around

27,000 person now is a very skewed

perception of the capability the the

Army Reserve have and that requires

fundamental changes in both structure

and appeal uh for people joining the

Army Reserve I think separately the Army

Reserve really should be this like a

like a national resilience force or like

a home guard where we could see just how

intrinsic both the Army and the Army

Reserve were during for instance the

covid pandemic and things like the NHS

strikes the B four strikes so we can see

the need from a domestic angle from a

domestic resilience perspective to have

a greater incorporation of particularly

the reserves if we think about getting

ready for war is there a danger that as

you said this this would cost money a

war book you know cost money to run

where do we get the line right on

deterrence you know it never happens

people say why do we spend money on it

but actually you could bankrupt yourself

getting ready for a war That Never Comes

so how do you strike that balance

deterrence when it works means that

nothing happens so you know you could

argue that it has worked and the

investment was worthwhile but you've got

nothing to show for it because the war

never happened I think the the sense

from everybody that I'm speaking to or

I've been speaking to um looking at the

the threat landscape um and the

unpredictability of um of of the

different powers that are involved the

the sort of the policy seems to have

been in government that deterrence will

work in the form of the nuclear

Arsenal that we have this submarine that

is permanently with four submarines

nuclear armed one is permanently at Sea

ready to to deploy nuclear weapons in

the defense of this nation then then the

membership of NATO that that deterrence

is enough which means that it it won't

fail but then they don't ask the

question what if it fails and that's the

question now people say must be asked I

ought to as well just bring in what the

government has said in response to our

reporting on all of this because

obviously I had to go to them and ask

them about how these allegations that we

don't have a defense plan the cabinet

office said that the country has robust

plans in place for a range of potential

emergencies and scenarios with plans and

supporting Arrangements developed

refined and tested over many years and

it goes on to the the spokesperson lists

various issues like the the government

resilience framework a national risk

register there these local resilience

forums but I which is you know it's all

very true sounds very reassuring it

sound and it says a part a part of a

broad emergency response capabilities

all local resilience forums have plans

in place to respond to a range of

scenarios and the government continues

to review the risk landscape including

threats from overseas but I flick

through the risk register and it offers

a lot more information on floods

pandemics terrorism cyber attacks than

it does about the event of World War III

for example and I also contacted a

number of these local resilience forums

and they did confirm that they

themselves these local forums don't have

specific plans for war they rely on

central government for that uh which

seems is maybe scrambling to now draw

one up

hopefully fail to plan plan to fail as

the phrase goes Rob Clark Deens thank

you very much indeed