How Michigan explains American politics

Vox
11 Jan 202418:06

Summary

TLDR该视频脚本详细分析了密歇根州政治格局的变迁,特别是自2016年以来的变化。特朗普在2016年的胜利打破了长期支持民主党的“蓝墙”,赢得宾夕法尼亚、威斯康星和密歇根三个关键州。然而,密歇根州的政治并非表面上那么“红”,在2018年和2020年,民主党又重新赢得了州长和总统选举的胜利。视频探讨了造成这些变化的多种因素,包括重新划分选区、人口统计变化、教育水平、种族问题和女性选民的态度转变等。此外,密歇根州的选举结果反映了全国趋势,表明它可能是一个摇摆州,其政治变化对理解美国当前政治气候和未来选举具有重要意义。

Takeaways

  • 🏙️ 视频中提到了“蓝墙”这一概念,指的是自1992年以来一直投票给民主党总统候选人的18个州以及华盛顿特区。
  • 💥 2016年,唐纳德·特朗普打破了这一“蓝墙”,赢得了宾夕法尼亚、威斯康星和密歇根三个州的选票,尤其是密歇根州的翻转令人意外。
  • 🏛️ 尽管密歇根州在总统选举中一直支持民主党,但到了2016年,该州已经有了共和党州长和立法机构,这表明密歇根州的政治格局并不像表面上那么“蓝”。
  • 🔄 视频中讨论了密歇根州政治格局变化的原因,包括共和党在2010年代通过所谓的“右-to-work”立法、限制堕胎和放松环保保护等措施来削弱工会力量。
  • 📈 2018年和2020年,密歇根州的政治格局再次发生转变,民主党人当选为州长,拜登在2020年赢得了该州的选票。
  • 🌐 2022年中期选举中,民主党在密歇根州的州政府各部门均取得胜利,这是40年来的首次。
  • 🔄 视频中分析了密歇根州政治摇摆的原因,包括重新划分选区(redistricting)、人口结构变化、教育水平、种族和性别等因素。
  • 🗳️ 密歇根州的重新划分选区措施(Proposal 2)在2018年通过,这有助于民主党在2022年的选举中获得更公平的选区划分。
  • 👩‍🎓 视频中指出,大学教育水平的提高与民主党投票趋势之间存在相关性,这一点在密歇根州和全美范围内都有所体现。
  • 🤱 2022年,密歇根州通过了提案3(Proposal 3),将堕胎权利写入州宪法,这一措施受到了广泛的支持。
  • 🕊️ 视频中提到,密歇根州的阿拉伯裔美国人占比最高,这一群体的政治态度变化可能对选举结果产生影响。
  • 📊 密歇根州的政治变化反映了美国整体的政治趋势,包括两党联盟的转变、教育水平对投票行为的影响,以及罗伊诉韦德案被推翻后全国范围内对堕胎权利的关注。

Q & A

  • 为什么1992年后,这18个州和华盛顿特区被称为“蓝墙”?

    -这些州和华盛顿特区从1992年开始,每一次总统选举都投票给了民主党候选人,因此被称为“蓝墙”。

  • 唐纳德·特朗普是如何打破“蓝墙”的?

    -唐纳德·特朗普在2016年的总统选举中赢得了宾夕法尼亚、威斯康星和密歇根三个“蓝墙”州,从而打破了长期以来民主党在这些州的连胜纪录。

  • 密歇根州在2016年之前的政治情况是怎样的?

    -尽管密歇根州在总统选举中一直投票给民主党,但到了2016年,该州已经有了共和党州长和立法机构,且这种情况已经持续了一段时间。

  • 2010年代共和党州政府对密歇根州做了哪些改变?

    -共和党州政府通过了一些标志性的立法,包括削弱工会力量、限制堕胎权利和放宽环保法规。

  • 2018年和2020年密歇根州的政治变化是什么?

    -2018年,密歇根州选举了一位民主党州长。到了2020年,该州投票给了乔·拜登而非唐纳德·特朗普。

  • 密歇根州在2022年中期选举中取得了哪些成就?

    -在2022年的中期选举中,民主党在密歇根州赢得了每一个选举产生的州政府分支,这是40年来的第一次。

  • 密歇根州新的蓝政府采取了哪些行动?

    -新的蓝政府迅速行动,废除了一些共和党的标志性立法,扩大了反歧视法律,并投入资金支持州向清洁能源的转型。

  • 为什么密歇根州的政治倾向会发生如此大的变化?

    -密歇根州的政治变化受到多种因素的影响,包括经济变迁、人口结构、政治运动以及选民对特定议题的态度变化等。

  • 密歇根州的重新划分选区是如何影响选举结果的?

    -通过2011年的重新划分选区,共和党成功地在州议会中获得了多数席位,即使他们只赢得了约46%的选票。这种重新划分选区的方式对共和党有利。

  • 特朗普是如何影响马科姆县的选民的?

    -特朗普通过关注贸易和制造业问题,以及激发种族不满情绪,成功地改变了马科姆县的投票倾向。

  • 底特律市的投票模式是怎样的?

    -底特律市通常投票给民主党,投票率高达93%至98%。然而,2016年的选民投票率异常低,这可能与特朗普的言论有关。

  • 白人女性选民的态度转变对密歇根州政治有什么影响?

    -在2016年之后,白人女性选民的态度发生了显著转变,她们开始更多地支持民主党,这对2018年和2020年的选举结果产生了重要影响。

Outlines

00:00

🏛️ 政治变迁:从蓝墙到摇摆州

这一段落讲述了美国政治版图的变迁,特别是密歇根州在过去几十年中的转变。最初,密歇根州和其他18个州以及华盛顿特区被称为“蓝墙”,因为自1992年以来,这些地区一直投票给民主党总统候选人。然而,2016年特朗普打破了这一局面,赢得了密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州三个蓝墙州。尽管密歇根州历史上一直是民主党的票仓,但在2016年之前,该州已经有了共和党州长和立法机构。2018年,密歇根州选举了一位民主党州长,2020年投票给拜登,2022年中期选举中,民主党在密歇根州政府的每个选举分支中都取得了胜利,这是40年来的首次。这一段还探讨了政治科学家和数据对这种变化的解释,暗示密歇根州可能只是一个摇摆州,其变化反映了美国当前的政治态势和未来选举的可能走向。

05:03

🗺️ 密歇根州的政治地理:县的规模与投票

这一段落深入探讨了密歇根州内部的政治地理分布,特别是对三个关键县的影响。首先关注的是Macomb县,这是一个传统上支持民主党、白人占多数的县,但由于制造业工作岗位的大量流失,该县在2016年转而支持特朗普。特朗普通过关注贸易和制造业问题,以及激发种族不满情绪,成功地改变了Macomb县的政治倾向。接着,段落转向底特律市,这个城市以非洲裔美国人为主,通常投票给民主党。2016年的选民投票率异常低,特朗普的言论可能对非洲裔美国人的投票产生了影响。最后,段落提到了其他因素,如白人女性选民的政治态度转变,以及教育水平对投票行为的影响。

10:03

🌐 密歇根州的政治转变:女性、教育与郊区

这一段落分析了密歇根州政治转变中的几个关键因素,特别是女性选民的作用。2016年,不同背景的白人女性普遍给予特朗普一个机会,但在那之后,她们对民主党的支持出现了显著的转变。这一变化与全国范围内女性参与政治的增强有关。特别是奥克兰县的女性,尤其是白人女性,在2018年和2020年的选举中对民主党的胜利起到了重要作用。此外,段落还讨论了教育水平对选民投票行为的影响,大学受过教育的选民趋向于支持民主党。2018年的中期选举和2022年的选举结果显示,民主党在新的选区划分下赢得了更多的席位。

15:03

📊 密歇根州的未来:人口结构与政治走向

这一段落讨论了密歇根州未来的政治走向,指出尽管密歇根州近年来趋向于民主党,但仍然存在摇摆的可能性。例如,密歇根州的中东和北非人口比例较高,这可能影响他们对民主党的支持。段落还回顾了特朗普在密歇根州政治中的重要角色,以及密歇根州的政治变迁如何反映全国的趋势。密歇根州的选民结构和政治动态,如重新划分选区、大学教育选民的倾向、以及对罗伊诉韦德案的反制等,都是全国性的关注点。最后,段落强调密歇根州的政治变化不仅对州内选举有重大影响,也可能对全国选举产生决定性作用。

Mindmap

Keywords

💡蓝墙(the blue wall)

蓝墙是指自1992年以来一直投票给民主党总统候选人的18个州和华盛顿特区的统称。这个概念在视频中用来描述这些地区长期以来的政治倾向。2016年,唐纳德·特朗普打破了这一传统,赢得了其中的三个州:宾夕法尼亚、威斯康星和密歇根,这一事件在视频中被特别提及。

💡密歇根州(Michigan)

密歇根州在视频中是一个重要的案例,它曾经是民主党的坚定支持者,但在2016年大选中转而支持特朗普。这个转变并非偶然,与该州的政治、经济和社会背景紧密相关。视频中提到,尽管密歇根州长期以来一直是民主党的票仓,但在2016年之前,该州已经由共和党控制州长和立法机构,且在社会政策上采取了一系列保守措施。

💡选民倾向(voter preference)

选民倾向是指选民在选举中对某一政党或候选人的支持趋势。视频中通过分析密歇根州的选民倾向,揭示了该州政治倾向的变迁。例如,视频中提到了白人女性选民群体在2016年后开始倾向于支持民主党,这一转变对密歇根州的政治格局产生了重要影响。

💡重新划分选区(redistricting)

重新划分选区是指根据人口普查结果调整选举区域边界的过程。视频中强调了这一过程对密歇根州政治格局的影响,尤其是在2010年共和党控制下进行的重新划分选区,导致了共和党在州议会中获得了不成比例的多数席位。

💡制造业(manufacturing)

制造业在视频中是密歇根州经济和政治倾向变化的一个关键因素。密歇根州传统上是以制造业为主导的经济体,许多工作岗位与汽车工业有关。视频中提到,制造业工作岗位的减少对当地社区产生了重大影响,这一点在特朗普的竞选中被用来吸引选民。

💡种族问题(racial issues)

种族问题在视频中被提及,作为影响密歇根州政治倾向的一个因素。特朗普在竞选中利用种族问题来吸引某些选民群体的支持,同时,视频中也提到了底特律市的非洲裔美国人社区在选举中的投票行为和特朗普对这些社区的影响。

💡人口结构变化(demographic changes)

人口结构变化是指一个地区人口组成的变化,包括种族、年龄、教育水平等方面。视频中提到,密歇根州的人口结构变化,特别是教育水平较高的选民群体越来越倾向于支持民主党,这一变化对选举结果产生了重要影响。

💡女性选民(women voters)

女性选民在视频中被视为一个重要的政治力量。特别是在2016年之后,密歇根州的白人女性选民开始大量转向支持民主党,这一转变对州的政治格局产生了显著影响。视频中还提到了女性在政治参与和社会运动中的活跃表现。

💡特朗普(Donald Trump)

特朗普在视频中是密歇根州政治变化的核心人物。他的政策立场、竞选策略和个人魅力对密歇根州的选民倾向产生了重大影响。特朗普在2016年赢得了密歇根州,但在随后的选举中,他的一些政策和言论似乎又促使选民转而支持民主党。

💡反堕胎法案(anti-abortion legislation)

反堕胎法案在视频中是引发政治变动的一个关键因素。特别是在2022年,密歇根州通过了提案3,将堕胎权利写入州宪法,这一举措受到了广泛支持。这反映了选民对堕胎权利的关注,并可能影响了选举结果。

💡选举欺诈(election fraud)

选举欺诈是指在选举过程中的非法行为,旨在影响选举结果。视频中提到,密歇根州的共和党在2022年大选中大力宣扬选举欺诈的观念,尽管大多数选民并不认同这一观点。这种策略可能对选民的投票行为产生了影响。

Highlights

“蓝色长城”是指1992年以来一直投票给民主党总统候选人的18个州和华盛顿特区。

2016年,唐纳德·特朗普打破了“蓝色长城”,赢得了宾夕法尼亚、威斯康星和密歇根三个州。

尽管多年来一直支持民主党总统候选人,但到2016年,密歇根州已经有了共和党州长和立法机构。

2010年代,共和党州政府削弱了工会,限制了堕胎,放宽了环保规定。

2018年,密歇根州选举了一位民主党州长。

2020年,密歇根州投票给乔·拜登而不是特朗普。

2022年中期选举中,民主党赢得了密歇根州政府的每一个选举分支,这是40年来的首次。

密歇根州的新蓝政府迅速行动,废除了一些共和党的标志性立法,扩大了反歧视法律,并投资于州清洁能源的转型。

2010年共和党赢得了整个州的控制权,随后在2011年的选区重划中,他们成功地偏向了自己。

2016年,密歇根州的投票结果非常接近,特朗普以0.23%的优势获胜。

马科姆县传统上是民主党的,但在2016年,特朗普的制造业和贸易政策转变了该县的投票趋势。

特朗普在激发种族不满方面发挥了作用,这在马科姆县一直很受欢迎。

底特律市的非裔美国人社区在特朗普的言辞下可能感到不舒服去投票。

2016年后,密歇根州的白人女性选民开始倾向于民主党。

橡树县的白人女性在2018年和2020年的选举中对民主党的胜利起到了重要作用。

大学教育的选民在密歇根州和全美范围内都趋向于投票给民主党。

2022年,密歇根州的选民通过了反选区划分操纵的提案2,将选区重划权从立法机构转移到独立委员会。

2022年的选举结果显示,民主党在新的选区划分下赢得了与其得票率相匹配的席位。

密歇根州的罗伊诉韦德案被推翻后,通过提案3将堕胎权利写入州宪法,得到了压倒性的支持。

密歇根州共和党在2022年的选举中大力推动选举欺诈的说法,但这并未得到大多数选民的支持。

密歇根州的郊区历史上投票给共和党,直到2022年,这些地区开始反对共和党的选举欺诈焦点。

密歇根州的政治动态与美国其他地区有许多相似之处,反映了当前美国的政治趋势。

Transcripts

play00:00

These 18 states,

play00:03

along with Washington, DC,

play00:05

for a long time, were known as “the blue wall.”

play00:09

And we called it that because,

play00:11

starting in 1992,

play00:14

each one of those places voted for a Democrat for president,

play00:18

again, and again, and again,

play00:20

and, well actually--

play00:21

“The blue wall, right?!”

play00:23

In 2016, Donald Trump won by breaking the blue wall.

play00:27

“We didn't break it, we shattered that sucker.”

play00:30

And the way he shattered that sucker

play00:32

is that he won three blue wall states:

play00:35

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin,

play00:37

and, just barely, and in maybe the biggest surprise:

play00:41

Michigan.

play00:42

“Michigan, a state that was supposed to be a lock for Hillary Clinton.”

play00:45

“Michigan has been blue for a long time.”

play00:47

“Michigan, isn't that one of the pillars of the infamous blue wall?”

play00:50

But here's something that people missed about “blue wall” Michigan.

play00:54

Even though Michigan had consistently voted

play00:56

for Democrats for president over the years,

play00:59

it wasn't as blue as it looked.

play01:01

By 2016,

play01:02

Michigan already had a Republican governor and a Republican legislature,

play01:06

and it had been that way for some time.

play01:09

During the 2010s,

play01:10

that Republican state government had undermined unions...

play01:13

“so-called right-to-work legislation”

play01:15

...restricted abortion...

play01:17

“The bill is passed.”

play01:18

...loosened environmental protections...

play01:20

“Controversy surrounding this oil refinery.”

play01:23

So Trump winning Michigan didn't really come out of nowhere.

play01:28

But then, in 2018,

play01:30

Michigan elected a Democrat as governor.

play01:32

In 2020, it voted for Joe Biden over Trump.

play01:35

And in 2022, in a midterm election

play01:37

that was expected to be a red wave,

play01:40

Democrats won every elected branch of Michigan's state government --

play01:45

for the first time in 40 years.

play01:49

So now Michigan was blue...

play01:52

again, I guess.

play01:53

And its new blue government got to work fast:

play01:56

repealing some of the Republicans’ signature legislation...

play01:59

“The first state to repeal a right-to-work law in decades.”

play02:02

...expanding anti-discrimination laws...

play02:04

“The bill is passed.”

play02:06

...and pouring money into the state's transition to clean energy.

play02:09

“Michigan, a national leader in the fight against climate change.”

play02:15

In this video, we're going to ask why Michigan went so red, and then so blue.

play02:20

What do political scientists say, what does the data say...

play02:22

Because, maybe Michigan is just a swing state,

play02:25

and this is what it looks like when a swing state swings.

play02:27

But the forces pushing these swings

play02:31

tell us a lot about the US right now - and about our next election.

play02:44

So let's go back to this timeline of big Michigan elections,

play02:47

and we'll start here.

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In 2008.

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Michigan voted for Barack Obama for president,

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and for a Democratic state House of Representatives.

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But the next election would turn out differently.

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2010 is really a response to 2008.

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We see a blowback to Obama's national policies.

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In 2010, Republicans won control of the whole state.

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And the reason that matters is because the next year, 2011,

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was a redistricting year.

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Which means Michigan Republicans were in charge of redrawing these:

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Maps of the state's political districts.

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Maps that can favor one party or another, depending

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on which voters they draw into which districts.

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The new maps they drew looked like this.

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And as you can see:

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well...

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it's kind of hard to tell, actually.

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If you just sort of look at the map, it doesn't look too gerrymandered.

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But once those maps took effect, in the 2012 election,

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the impact was clear.

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Let's just look at these.

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The state House of Representatives districts.

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If you added up the votes across all of these districts in 2012,

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Republicans only won about 46% of that vote,

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but they ended up with 59 out of 110 seats,

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which was a majority.

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Meaning, they had successfully skewed this map in their favor.

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And for the rest of the decade, Michigan Republicans

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actually never won a majority of the statewide vote

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for the House of Representatives, but they always won a majority of its seats.

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Which kind of tells us something about this whole period.

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Redistricting explains the whole thing.

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If not for Republican complete control of redistricting in 2012,

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Michigan would look a lot different,

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throughout the whole decade and even into today.

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So Michigan wasn't as red as it looked either.

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But redistricting doesn't actually explain everything.

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For example, 2016,

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which is when Michigan, the whole state,

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broke the blue wall.

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So what was going on there?

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This chart looks at how close the vote was in every state

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in the 2016 presidential election.

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And Michigan is all the way at the end over here,

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the closest state in 2016,

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voting for Trump by a margin of 0.23%.

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When it's such a close margin, we could find

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a dozen different reasons.

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That's true, lot of factors here.

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Let's just start with one or two of them.

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This is a map of all the counties in Michigan.

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There are 83 of them,

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and on the map, a lot of them are geographically the same size.

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But if you were to resize each county

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according to how many voters there are in each one,

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that would look more like this.

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As you might be able to tell,

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these three counties alone

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make up a huge part of the state's population.

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So the way that they vote matters a ton.

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So let's start here:

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in Macomb County.

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“Macomb County, just north of Detroit.”

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Traditionally Democratic, overwhelmingly white.”

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“Historically home to autoworkers, union members...”

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“Between 2000 and 2010, half of the manufacturing jobs in Macomb vanished.”

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Demographically, Macomb is very...

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white working class.

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Before 2016, Macomb was a bellwether.

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A bellwether - meaning it voted kind of like the rest of the country.

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So, this chart shows how Macomb County voted

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for president in the years before 2016.

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These are years that voted for the Democrat for president,

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this is when it voted for the Republican,

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and the height is the margin of victory.

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And now let's do the thing where we add

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how the whole US voted each year.

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And notice how closely Macomb always matches the country as a whole.

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A bellwether.

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Until...

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2016.

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2016 changes all that,

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and it can come down to one word, and that's Trump.

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“God bless you, Michigan.

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God bless you.”

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He just shifts things dramatically in Macomb County.

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Focused on trade, manufacturing...

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“Michigan has lost one in four manufacturing jobs.”

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“This area is a manufacturing area.

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A lot of people are affected by losing their jobs.”

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“We will stop the jobs from leaving Michigan.”

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“Job creation. Not doing all our jobs offshore.”

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“We're going to bring a lot of industry back to our country”

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“The opportunity to earn a living and take care of our families.

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Put us all to work.”

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Talking about car jobs

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is one way that Trump takes Macomb from this to this.

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But...

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it's not the only way.

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We're seeing Trump stoke racial resentment,

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which has, in Macomb, always been, sort of, unfortunate to say, popular.

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“Look at the city of Detroit.

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Nearly half of Detroit residents do not work.”

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OK, that's not true,

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incidentally, unless your data includes children and the elderly.

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But while we're here,

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let's talk about Detroit,

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which is right next door to Macomb County,

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in Wayne County.

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The city of Detroit is about 78% black,

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and it typically votes between 93% and 98% Democratic.

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And in a place with such consistent voting patterns,

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it really helps to look at turnout.

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Politically speaking, when Detroit shows up,

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it's hard for Republicans

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to be able to win the state.

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This chart shows how many people voted in Detroit

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in different elections over the years.

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You can see that turnout in presidential elections

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is typically higher than turnout in midterm elections,

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and that's true pretty much everywhere.

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But look at the turnout in 2016.

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It's almost as low as, for example,

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the midterm election of 2006.

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Now, two things are happening here.

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Detroit is getting smaller during this time.

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Its population is shrinking, so fewer voters.

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But Trump had a role here, too.

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“Look how much African American communities

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have suffered under Democratic control.”

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The thing that I think Trump did effectively

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as far as interacting with African American voters

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is not getting them to become Republicans

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or switch their vote to the Republican Party.

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It’s to get them to not be comfortable voting for anyone.

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“America must reject the bigotry of Hillary Clinton,

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who sees communities of color

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only as votes, not as human beings.”

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Republicans don't have to move the needle that much in those communities

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to have an incredible impact on election outcomes.

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“I’m not convinced African Americans like Hillary Rodham Clinton

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as much as they liked Barack Obama.”

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“No one in this race, on either side, has that same pull.”

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If you don't like either side,

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maybe you don't vote.

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Now, there are, of course, other factors, too.

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That outcome is just one more of many that take us from blue Michigan

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to red Michigan.

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But remember:

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after 2016 is when Michigan starts to swing back.

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In 2018, the state elected a Democratic governor by a big margin.

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In 2020, it voted for Biden.

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And to see how we got there,

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we have to talk about...

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white women.

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This chart comes from exit polls of white women

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in Michigan over ten years of presidential and gubernatorial elections.

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And it shows us, in the early 2010s, including 2016,

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white women in Michigan were voting more for Republicans.

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In 2016,

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white women across

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urban, rural, suburban,

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educational level, gave Trump a chance.

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But after 2016, something changes.

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A big swing among that demographic towards Democrats.

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Now, this chart doesn't tell us the reason for that.

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But there was something big happening around that time.

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A kind of adjustment

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in the way that many women in the US were participating

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in politics.

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“Not my president!”

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“We will not be ignored!”

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“Millions of people around the world marching for women's rights today.”

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One part of Michigan was particularly energized during this period.

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“The largest of all was in Washington, DC.”

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“Everywhere we turned, we ran into somebody from Michigan.”

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“I’m from Huntington Woods, Michigan.”

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“Waterford, Michigan.”

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“Franklin.”

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“We’re from Ferndale!”

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Huntington Woods.

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Waterford.

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Franklin.

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Ferndale.

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All in Oakland County.

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Women, especially white women in places like Oakland,

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were a big part of what drove the Democrats to their victory in 2018,

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and led to Trump losing the state in 2020.

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“I didn't think I'd ever have to worry about whether or not

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the president of the United States was a good role model.

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and I do now.”

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“I spent every day,

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from 2016 through now,

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making sure I did everything I could to make sure he's not reelected.”

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In some ways, Oakland is the mirror image,

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or maybe a 180 from Macomb County.

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Oakland is the wealthiest county in Michigan,

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and the second most well-educated.

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And at one time, those things made Oakland

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a very Republican county.

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But those types of voters - wealthy, well-educated -

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they vote differently than they once did.

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And you see that in exit polls, too.

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This one shows how college-educated voters across

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Michigan have voted over the past few elections.

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They've been trending heavily towards Democrats.

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You can really see the backlash to Trump

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in the raw voter turnout numbers in Oakland County.

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Turnout in 2016 was kind of unremarkable,

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basically in line with earlier years.

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But look at how many people voted in the first election

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after Trump won, the midterm election of 2018:

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Almost as many as in a presidential election.

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And the 2020 count

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was unprecedented.

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Okay.

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We’ve finally made it to 2022.

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Democrats win it all.

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Except sorry one more thing.

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“Proposal 2, the anti-gerrymandering proposal.”

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“The state overwhelmingly passed Proposal 2.”

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In 2018, by a big margin,

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Michigan voters approved an anti-gerrymandering measure,

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that took redistricting out of the hands of the legislature,

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and gave it to an independent commission.

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Over the next three years,

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that commission would replace these maps, with new maps.

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And the first year that these maps would be in effect was 2022.

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In 2022, if you added up all the elections for Michigan state representatives,

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Democrats won 51% of that vote.

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And under the new district lines,

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they won 56 out of 110 seats, which is...

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51%.

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Michigan's independent redistricting commission gave Michigan Democrats

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the opportunity to finally have maps that weren't

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overly biased to Republicans.

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Redistricting unlocks a big part of how this happened,

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but there was more going on here.

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To really understand 2022,

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we have to look at these two stories.

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One started with the overturning

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of Roe v Wade in June of 2022.

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In Michigan, activists responded to that

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by putting Proposal 3 on the ballot that year:

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a measure that would enshrine

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abortion rights in the state constitution.

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The measure was really popular,

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and passed easily, by more than ten percentage points.

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The other big thing

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was something happening in the Michigan Republican Party.

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By the time 2022 gets around, the Trump wing

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of the Republican Party had taken over entirely.

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These are photos from a “stop the steal” protest

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at the Michigan state capitol, just after the 2020 election.

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By May of 2022,

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a poll found that a majority of Michigan Republicans

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supported overturning the 2020 presidential election.

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Among Michigan voters as a whole, though,

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only around a quarter agreed with that.

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But Republicans running for statewide office

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in 2022 largely endorsed that idea.

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“How many of you believe that the widespread election fraud

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was enough to swing the election toward Biden?

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Raise your hand with me.”

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That is Tudor Dixon, who Michigan Republicans

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nominated for governor in 2022.

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“The city of Detroit

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has been plagued with election corruption for years.”

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And that is Kristina Karamo,

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the Republican who ran to be in charge of Michigan's elections.

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Both Dixon and Karamo would lose to Democrats

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by more than ten percentage points.

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One place you could really see the reaction

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to abortion rights on the ballot, and to the Republican focus on election fraud,

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was the Michigan suburbs,

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which exit polls tell us had historically voted Republican

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until 2022.

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And the next year, Michigan Republicans met at their convention,

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and they chose Kristina Karamo

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as their new party leader.

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“We need to fight to secure our elections.

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It's the reason I did not concede after the 2022 election.”

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It's almost like that's all you hear from them.

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It's tempting to think that Michigan is just a blue state now.

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But it won't take much to make it swing back.

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For example, Michigan is about 3% Middle Eastern and North African.

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Doesn't sound like much, but that actually makes it

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the most Arab American state in the country by far.

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And that would be worth paying attention to if, for example,

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something were to happen

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that made Arab American support for Joe Biden go way down.

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“President Biden shows unwavering support for Israel,

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with the civilian death toll in Gaza rising.”

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“I did vote for Joe Biden in 2020.

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Do you plan to vote for him in 2024?

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I do not.”

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Still, if we look back at some of the big moments in this story,

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you might notice two things.

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First, it's Donald Trump who's actually been the main character

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in Michigan politics, going back almost a decade now.

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And second, you probably saw some of these things happen

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outside of Michigan, too.

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This chart shows how every state voted

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in the most recent presidential election, 2020.

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If you put how the whole US voted onto this chart, it would go here.

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And here is Michigan.

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In other words, by at least one measure,

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Michigan is the state closest to the country as a whole.

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Redistricting battles like Michigan's

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are happening all over the country.

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National exit polls show that college- educated Americans everywhere

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have been voting more Democratic, just like in Michigan.

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And that non-college educated Americans are doing the opposite.

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That's pretty indicative of where the parties are headed.

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I do think that you're seeing party coalitions shift.

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There's also evidence that the overturning of Roe v. Wade

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has been a powerful motivator everywhere, not just in Michigan,

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with voters rejecting abortion bans in surprising places

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like Kentucky, Montana, Kansas, Ohio...

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So, you know,

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Michigan can make or break a whole national election.

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But there's a better reason for Americans

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to be watching Michigan really closely.

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And it's that when we do,

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we're looking at ourselves.

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