Top Swing Trade Strategy with Exact Entry and Exits
Summary
TLDRIn this trading video, the speaker outlines their top stock trading ideas for the week, focusing on GameStop (GME) and its recent price movements. They discuss their strategy for shorting GME based on key technical levels and market behavior. The speaker also briefly mentions other potential trades, including LR and ALCC, and emphasizes the importance of patience and selectivity in trading. They invite viewers to share their own trading ideas and promote an online presentation for aspiring traders to learn how to join SMB, a trading firm, and potentially trade with the firm's capital.
Takeaways
- π The trader focuses on individual stock ideas rather than the overall market direction due to the market's light volume and lack of conviction in high beta continuation.
- π― The trader's top idea for the upcoming week is GameStop (GME), which has been a recurring theme and has shown consistent behavior around key price levels.
- π The trader is looking for a short opportunity in GME after a failed breakout, aiming to enter on a pop into the 1820s or up to 19, considering this as a potential failure and supply zone.
- πΌ The trader plans to take half the position off at 17, the support level from the previous Friday, and then trail the stop for a move down to 15 or lower.
- π« If GME reclaims the 2-day vwap and shows a higher low, the trader will not short the stock, indicating a change in strategy based on market behavior.
- π The trader is monitoring other ideas such as Google, Apple, Microsoft, and smaller cap stocks for potential short opportunities, especially with events like the OpenAI conference.
- π The trader mentions LR (a stock) as a potential short opportunity if it fails to move higher after a nice move on Friday, aiming for a short at the failure zone near $3.
- π« The trader discusses a ticket change for ALCC to OKL, highlighting the importance of reacting to market news and changes quickly.
- π The trader emphasizes the importance of patience and selectivity in the current market, only becoming aggressive when high-conviction opportunities present themselves.
- πΌ The trader invites viewers to share their watch lists and strategies, fostering a community discussion and learning environment.
Q & A
What are the speaker's top ideas for the upcoming week?
-The speaker's top idea for the upcoming week is to focus on GameStop (GME). They plan to short GME if it fails to break higher after a move into the two-day VWAP and 19, anticipating a drop back to 15.
Why is the speaker cautious about the overall market?
-The speaker is cautious because the overall market is trending higher on increasingly light volume, making it difficult to have conviction in high-beta continuation momentum trades.
What strategy does the speaker plan to use for GME?
-The speaker plans to short GME if it moves into the two-day VWAP (around 18.20-19) and fails to break higher. They intend to take partial profits around 17 and trail the position down to 15 if the downtrend continues.
What would invalidate the speaker's short thesis on GME?
-The speaker would abandon their short strategy if GME reclaims the two-day VWAP and consolidates above 19, as this would indicate potential strength.
Which other stocks or opportunities is the speaker monitoring?
-The speaker is monitoring stocks like Google, Apple, and Microsoft, especially with the upcoming OpenAI conference. They are also watching small-cap names for failed follow-through shorts, including LR and OKL.
What is the speakerβs view on LR for the upcoming week?
-The speaker is looking for a potential short in LR if there is a failed move into $3. They expect a short squeeze to fade and are targeting a move back down to $2.
What recent event related to OKL is the speaker focused on?
-The speaker is focused on a recent ticket change in OKL (formerly ALCC) and is watching for a push towards its two-day VWAP at $10-$11 for a potential short.
Why is the speaker light on trading ideas for the week?
-The speaker is light on ideas because they are being patient, waiting for high-quality setups that align with their strategy. They believe the market is slowing down and want to remain selective.
What does the speaker recommend for traders in the current market environment?
-The speaker advises traders to remain patient and selective, only putting full effort into trades when an 'A+' setup presents itself.
What opportunity is SMB Capital offering to aspiring traders?
-SMB Capital is offering the opportunity to become an in-house or remote trader, using firm capital without risking personal funds. They are looking for ambitious and determined individuals and provide training and coaching for developing profitable traders.
Outlines
π Market Trends and Personal Strategy
The trader begins by sharing excitement for the upcoming weekβs trading ideas, focusing on personal strategies and targets. They explain how recent weeks have been focused on individual stocks and isolated outlier scenarios rather than broad market trends. Despite the market trending higher, the volume is light, making it difficult for the trader to trust high-beta swing trades. They emphasize the importance of patience, allowing the market to dictate the direction before committing to aggressive swing trades. The trader provides a brief insight into their thought process of sticking to what works while waiting for better signals from the market.
π― GME Strategy for the Upcoming Week
The trader's primary focus is GameStop (GME), which has been behaving well around key levels. They recount GME's recent movements, including a failed breakout at $20 followed by a drop to $17, which aligned perfectly with their trading plan. For the coming week, they plan to short GME if it reaches the $18.20-$19 resistance zone, expecting a failure and a potential drop. They plan to exit half of their position around $17 and aim for a longer-term target of $15 or lower. However, if GME reclaims the two-day VWAP and consolidates above $19, the trader will not short it.
π§βπ» Other Watchlist Candidates: LR and ALCC
In addition to GME, the trader mentions keeping an eye on other stocks like LR and ALCC (now OKL). LR showed promising moves on Friday, and the trader is waiting for a failed downward move early in the week to short the stock if it pushes towards $3 and fails. For ALCC, they see an opportunity around $10-$11, where resistance might offer a shorting opportunity. However, overall, the trader remains cautious, noting they are not excited about other ideas as much as GME and emphasize the need to be patient and selective in this environment.
π€ Trading Insights: Patience and Selectivity
The trader advises being patient and selective in the current slow market. They mention having fewer ideas for the upcoming week but encourage viewers to share their watchlists and strategies. The trader highlights the importance of waiting for ideal setups where all conditions align perfectly before making aggressive moves. They encourage engagement by inviting viewers to comment on their own strategies and adjustments to the slowing market.
πͺ Competing Against Elite Traders
The trader pivots to discussing the competitive nature of trading, highlighting that their competitors are elite traders who make seven to eight figures annually. The firm trains its traders like professional athletes, emphasizing dedication and continual skill improvement. The trader contrasts this with the image of 'trading gurus' who promote easy lifestyles, stating that true success in trading requires far more effort and commitment.
π’ Trading at SMB Capital: Opportunities and Training
The trader introduces SMB Capital, one of the worldβs top proprietary trading firms, and explains how the firm is always seeking talented traders to join their team, either in-house or remotely. The firm provides capital for traders to use without risking their own money, and some traders have made seven-figure profits this way. They promote a free online presentation that offers more information and outlines the steps to qualify for an interview at SMB Capital. The presentation is targeted at ambitious and determined traders, even those who are not yet profitable, as the firm focuses on molding traders with the right methods and techniques.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Top ideas
π‘Entry and exit target points
π‘Momentum swing
π‘Failed breakout
π‘VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)
π‘Supply zone
π‘Short trap
π‘High beta
π‘Selective patience
π‘Two-day VWAP reclaim
Highlights
Traders are focusing on individual stocks rather than market trends due to light trading volume.
The speaker emphasizes the importance of sticking to what's working and exercising patience.
GameStop (GME) is identified as a top idea for the upcoming week, with a detailed trading plan.
A potential short opportunity in GME is anticipated around the two-day VWAP in the 1820s or 1830s.
The speaker plans to take profits at the 17 support level and trail the stop for a move to 15 or lower.
If GME reclaims the 2-day VWAP, the speaker will not short the stock.
The speaker is monitoring other stocks like Google, Apple, Microsoft, and smaller cap ideas.
LR is highlighted as a potential short opportunity if it fails to move up.
ALCC had a ticket change to OKL, which is being monitored for potential short opportunities.
The speaker stresses the importance of remaining patient and selective in the current market environment.
The speaker invites listeners to share their watch lists and strategies in the comments.
An invitation to a free online presentation about becoming an in-house or remote trader with SMB Capital.
SMB Capital is described as a top proprietary trading firm looking to hire and develop trading talent.
The firm allows traders to use its capital to trade without risking their own money.
SMB Capital has a rigorous training program to mold profitable traders.
Three simple criteria can earn anyone an interview with SMB Capital.
The speaker encourages ambitious and determined traders to sign up for the presentation.
Transcripts
Traders as always I'm looking forward to
sharing my top ideas for the upcoming
week as well as my precise entry and
exit Target points so just before I
share my top ideas for the upcoming week
as you may have noticed from the last
several weeks um you know my watch list
my ideas have been very isolated to
individual names and outlier scenarios
rather than depending on the overall
Market's Direction and that's because
I'm sticking to what is working for me
now while the overall Market is trending
higher
um you know it's doing so on
increasingly light volume making it
quite difficult for me to have any
conviction in high beta uh continuation
momentum swing so this is a concept that
I've discussed and I continue to discuss
in far greater detail um inside SMB
inside axis so be sure to check that out
now sticking with the theme um sticking
with what's working and doubling down on
patients really just allowing the market
to show its hand a little bit better
before I get more aggressive with my
swing ideas um these are the top ideas
for the upcoming week now the first one
is no stranger uh that's going to be gme
something I've discussed um for the last
couple of weeks now and you know gme
worked really perfectly um you know with
the plan that I shared in theb inside
access meeting on Thursday ahead of
Friday I was looking for that move into
20 and a potential exhaust to the upside
um and a failed move higher and then it
move back down to 17 um that worked out
perfectly as well as the plan from the
previous week week from the watch list
that I shared with all of you last week
so what am I looking for um for the
upcoming week I'm sticking with gme it's
been working it's been acting really
well around key levels and so after the
failed breakout after the very harsh
fail on Friday as we got into 20 um and
then we got a nice continuation to the
downside we got a little push failed
move into vwap and we closed very weak
on the day after that action um I'm
looking for a lower High failed follow
through to the upside to short in
GameStop um so basically what I'm
looking for is either a move into what
will become the two-day vwap right here
in 1820s 1830s on Monday maybe a
multi-day uh vwap if we have a bit of a
consolidation on Monday um but I'm
looking for a pop into 1820 or up to 19
I see between the two-day vwap and 19 is
as a potential failure and Supply zone
so I'm watching for GameStop to push
into that area and fail and then once it
fails looking to be short against um the
high of day or short on the lower high
confirmation from there I'm going to be
looking to take off up to half my
position into 17 support from Friday um
and after that going to be looking to
Trail my stop using lower highs for an
eventual move over multiple days down to
15 or lower um now must be said as well
if G if gme does reclaim the 2-day vwap
um and if we then put in a higher low
and we start consolidating over 19 for
me there's no reason to be short and I
will not be short um now regarding some
additional ideas for the upcoming week
you know I have nothing really in the
same category nothing that I'm too
excited about like I am with GameStop um
I'm monitoring a bunch of other ideas
and names just to see how they develop
um you know whether that's Google Apple
Microsoft especially with the open AI
conference on Monday um and potential
new developments and announcements um or
some you know smaller cap ideas for some
failed follow-through shorts so some
additional ideas that I have first one
is LR this one's from Friday um you know
very nice move on Friday to the upside
um I think there was opportunity both
directions it was a nice squeezer um
into the end of the day got rid of some
stubborn shorts so for me ideally on
Monday or Tuesday I'm looking for um a
bit of a failed move to the downside
ideally a short trap which would give it
enough juice hopefully to get back
towards
three and this potential failure Zone if
we get a push into three we get a fail
um that's where I Look to be short for a
move back down to two bucks alcc had a
ticket change to okl and obviously like
2020 um you know by the anticipation
sell the ticket change um on Friday that
worked very well I'm going to have alert
set in this if it can push back towards
its 2-day vwap yeah you know sort of
high 10 towards 11 if we do get any push
towards there and potential resistance
from Friday because that's where we
broke down from on Friday so support
turned into resistance um i' definitely
be looking for a short there more for an
intraday trade so very light on ideas
for the upcoming week nothing I'm too
excited about it's so important um
obviously in this market to remain
patient remain
selective um and for me really only for
my my you know foot on the pedal put on
the gas once um the Stars really align
um and something A+ and worthy shows up
so that being said um light on ideas but
I'd love to hear what is on your watch
list for the upcoming week what changes
you're making in the current environment
as things slow down a little bit um I'd
love to hear so drop it in the comments
and I will see you all next week so
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