Dalal Street Week Ahead: SEPTEMBER 4TH Week | 2024 | P R Sundar

Summary

In the DAL Street Week Ahead program, PR Sundar discusses market trends, noting that recent rallies have been concentrated on Fridays, causing losses for intraday traders. He advises caution on Fridays but sees opportunities for positional traders, with the market bullish between 25,000 and 26,000. Technical analysis has been accurate, with Nifty and Bank Nifty showing significant rallies after crossing certain levels. Sundar anticipates a consolidation for Nifty between 25,500 and 26,000, with increased volatility due to the options expiry. He suggests that despite potential market fluctuations, selling put options below 25,000 could be profitable, and considers 25,000 as a support level for October, barring unforeseen events.

Takeaways

• 📈 Markets rallied about 2% last week, with most of the rally happening on Friday, indicating a strong trend on that day.
• 🔍 The speaker advises caution on Fridays, as many intraday traders have lost significant amounts of money recently.
• 📉 The speaker has been recommending a bullish stance, suggesting that dips towards 25,000 are opportunities to add more positions.
• 📊 Technical analysis has been accurate, with Nifty and Bank Nifty showing significant rallies after crossing certain thresholds.
• 🚀 Bank Nifty has surged more than 2,000 points in six trading sessions, reflecting a shift in market trends post-Fed rate cut.
• 💹 The speaker anticipates Nifty to trade between 25,500 and 26,000 in the coming week, due to market consolidation.
• 📊 Open interest in options is high, with 26,000 call options and 25,700 put options attracting significant attention.
• 🌪️ Expectations of market volatility are high, especially in the last week of the expiry, influenced by the Global Market Assessment (GMA) effect.
• 📅 The upcoming week is expected to be eventful with potential market movements of 250 to 300 points over four trading sessions.
• 🏛️ The speaker mentions upcoming events like state elections in October that may influence market behavior.

Q & A

What was the market performance last week as mentioned in the script?

Last week, the markets rallied about 2%, with most of the rally occurring on the last Friday.

Why are Fridays considered a trending day for the Nifty index in the past two to three months?

In the past two and a half months, out of five trading sessions where the Nifty rallied more than 300 points, four of those trading sessions happened on Fridays.

What advice was given to intraday traders regarding trading on Fridays?

Intraday traders are advised to be very careful on Fridays as many have lost significant amounts of money, and it's suggested that it might be better to avoid trading on Fridays.

What has been the stance on the market for positional traders according to the script?

Positional traders have been advised that the market is bullish and any fall towards 25,000 is an opportunity to add more put positions at 25,000.

What technical analysis was mentioned regarding the Nifty index crossing 24975?

The script mentioned that when the Nifty index crossed 24975, it was a signal to go long, which was followed by a rally of more than 800 points.

What was the significance of the Bank Nifty crossing 21840 as per the script?

Crossing 21840 for Bank Nifty was a signal to go long, and within six to seven trading sessions, it shot up more than 2,000 points.

How does the script describe the overall market sentiment post the US Fed rate cut?

The script describes the market as very bullish post the US Fed rate cut, with a shift in focus from defensive sectors to cyclical sectors.

What is the expected trading range for the Nifty index in the coming week according to the script?

The script expects the Nifty index to trade between 25500 and 26,000 in the coming week.

What is the expected market behavior during the last week of the expiry as per the script?

The script expects the market to be very volatile during the last week of the expiry, with the GMA effect kicking in and the potential for the Nifty to move about 250 to 300 points.

What are the potential events in October that could impact the market as mentioned in the script?

The script mentions that state elections in Kashmir and Haryana in October might cause some market reaction.

What is the view on market consolidation and opportunities for option sellers as per the script?

The script suggests that the market will consolidate with a positive bias, and any intraday fall is an opportunity to sell more put options at 25,000 and below.