Why I Use This STRANGE Method for Analysing Bitcoin and Stock Markets | Elliott Wave Theory
Summary
TLDRIn diesem Video erklärt der Sprecher die Bedeutung der Elliot-Wellen-Theorie für die Chartanalyse. Er beschreibt, dass Elliot-Wellen auf natürlichen Phänomenen basieren, insbesondere auf fraktaler Geometrie, die in verschiedenen natürlichen Systemen wie Bäumen oder Küstenlinien zu finden ist. Diese Muster sind auch in Finanzmärkten zu beobachten, wo sie menschliches Verhalten und soziale Stimmungen widerspiegeln. Der Sprecher betont, dass die Elliot-Wellen-Theorie nicht nur Trends aufzeigt, sondern auch Wendepunkte identifiziert und so eine einzigartige Marktübersicht bietet.
Takeaways
- 🔍 Elliot-Wellen basieren auf natürlichen Phänomenen, nicht auf Astrologie oder Nostradamus.
- 📚 Fraktale, wie sie von Physikern beschrieben werden, zeigen Selbstähnlichkeit auf kleineren Skalen und sind die Grundlage der Elliot-Wellen.
- 🌲 Beispiele für Fraktale in der Natur sind Baumzweige und Blutgefäße, die sich in kleinere, ähnliche Muster aufteilen.
- 📉 Ralph Nelson Elliot entdeckte, dass auch die Finanzmärkte fraktale Muster zeigen, mit Wellen, die sich auf kleineren Skalen wiederholen.
- 🧠 Die Elliot-Wellen-Theorie basiert auf der Soziologie und besagt, dass menschliche Emotionen und Massenpsychologie die Märkte beeinflussen.
- 📈 Elliot-Wellen helfen, Markttrends und Wendepunkte zu erkennen, indem sie eine Kontextanalyse bieten.
- ⚠️ Anleger sollten auf Welle 4-Korrekturen achten, die oft chaotisch und emotional belastend sind.
- 💡 Die stärkste Bewegung in den Märkten tritt typischerweise in Welle 3 oder der sogenannten Welle 3 der Welle 3 auf.
- 🚨 Welle 5 ist die letzte Phase eines Trends, nach der häufig eine Umkehrung folgt.
- 🛠️ Die Elliot-Wellen-Theorie kann durch andere technische Methoden, wie das Erkennen von Unterstützungsbrüchen, ergänzt werden, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer genauen Prognose zu erhöhen.
Q & A
Was ist der Hauptgrund, warum der Sprecher die Elliott-Wellen-Theorie zur Chartanalyse verwendet?
-Der Sprecher verwendet die Elliott-Wellen-Theorie, weil sie auf natürlichen Phänomenen basiert und Fraktalgeometrie verwendet, um Muster auf verschiedenen Ebenen der Finanzmärkte zu erkennen. Diese Theorie bietet einen kontextuellen Überblick und hilft dabei, Wendepunkte im Markt zu identifizieren.
Wie erklärt der Sprecher, was Fraktale sind?
-Fraktale sind geometrische Muster, die sich auf immer kleineren Skalen wiederholen. Der Sprecher vergleicht sie mit russischen Puppen (Matroschkas), bei denen jede Puppe eine kleinere Version der größeren Puppe ist. Dieses Konzept findet sich in der Natur und den Finanzmärkten wieder.
Warum glauben manche Menschen fälschlicherweise, dass Elliott-Wellen etwas mit Astrologie oder Wahrsagerei zu tun haben?
-Einige Menschen verstehen das Konzept der Elliott-Wellen nicht vollständig und vergleichen es mit Wahrsagerei oder Astrologie. Der Sprecher erklärt jedoch, dass die Theorie auf wissenschaftlichen Prinzipien wie Fraktalen und der menschlichen Psychologie basiert.
Wie wird das Konzept der Fraktalgeometrie auf die Finanzmärkte angewendet?
-Ralph Nelson Elliott entdeckte, dass sich in den Finanzmärkten fraktale Muster zeigen. Es gibt fünf Wellen in Richtung des Haupttrends und drei gegen den Trend, und diese Muster wiederholen sich auf kleineren Skalen.
Welche Rolle spielt die menschliche Psychologie in der Elliott-Wellen-Theorie?
-Die menschliche Psychologie und das kollektive Verhalten (soziale Stimmung) hinterlassen Spuren in den Finanzmärkten, die sich in fraktalen Mustern zeigen. Emotionen wie Angst, Euphorie und Gier prägen das Verhalten der Anleger und beeinflussen die Wellenbewegungen.
Warum ist Elliott-Wellen-Theorie die einzige Methode, die dem Sprecher zufolge Kontext liefert?
-Laut dem Sprecher bietet die Elliott-Wellen-Theorie eine „Landkarte“ des Marktes und hilft, die Position im größeren Bild zu erkennen. Keine andere Methode bietet diesen umfassenden Überblick, um Wendepunkte zu antizipieren.
Was ist eine Welle-4-Korrektur und warum ist sie wichtig?
-Eine Welle-4-Korrektur ist eine unvorhersehbare und chaotische Korrekturphase im Markt, die nach der Welle 3 auftritt. Sie ist wichtig, weil sie emotional und mental herausfordernd für Trader sein kann. Das Wissen darüber hilft, sich auf die Marktbedingungen und Risiken vorzubereiten.
Wie kann man die Welle 3 innerhalb der Welle 3 nutzen?
-Die Welle 3 innerhalb der Welle 3 ist der stärkste und dynamischste Teil eines Trends. Trader können warten, bis diese Phase beginnt, um eine Position zu eröffnen, da dies der vielversprechendste Moment für einen Anstieg ist.
Was sollte ein Trader tun, wenn er glaubt, dass der Markt in der Welle 5 der Welle 5 ist?
-Wenn ein Trader glaubt, dass der Markt in der Welle 5 der Welle 5 ist, sollte er sich auf eine mögliche Marktumkehr vorbereiten. Dies könnte bedeuten, Gewinne mitzunehmen oder sich gegen ein mögliches Marktrisiko abzusichern.
Welche weiteren Analyse-Methoden können mit der Elliott-Wellen-Theorie kombiniert werden?
-Zusätzlich zur Elliott-Wellen-Theorie können Trader andere technische Analysemethoden wie Unterstützungsbrüche oder Top-Formationen kombinieren, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Marktbewegung besser einzuschätzen.
Outlines
📈 Einleitung in die Elliott-Wellentheorie
Der Sprecher erklärt, warum er Elliott-Wellen für die Chartanalyse verwendet und stellt klar, dass diese Theorie nichts mit Astrologie oder Wahrsagerei zu tun hat. Elliott-Wellen basieren auf natürlichen Phänomenen. Das Video beginnt mit einer Wiederholung eines älteren Videos über Elliott-Wellen und verspricht am Ende neues Material, das zeigt, wie man diese Wellen zur Verbesserung der Chartanalyse einsetzen kann.
🌀 Fraktale und Selbstähnlichkeit in der Natur
Es wird erläutert, dass Elliott-Wellen auf Fraktalen beruhen, die in der Natur vorkommen. Fraktale zeichnen sich durch Selbstähnlichkeit auf kleineren Skalen aus. Der Sprecher vergleicht dies mit russischen Puppen und zeigt, dass Fraktale auch in den Finanzmärkten vorkommen. Elliott entdeckte, dass Märkte fünf Wellen in Richtung des Trends und drei Wellen dagegen zeigen, ein Muster, das sich auf immer kleineren Skalen wiederholt.
🌳 Fraktale in der Natur und an den Märkten
Anhand von Beispielen wie Baumzweigen und Blutgefäßen erklärt der Sprecher die Fraktale in der Natur. Auch die Finanzmärkte zeigen fraktale Muster. Elliott entdeckte, dass Marktbewegungen durch menschliches Verhalten und Massenpsychologie beeinflusst werden, was zu fraktalen Mustern führt. Diese Theorie half Elliott, einen 80-jährigen Bullenmarkt in den 1940er Jahren vorherzusagen, trotz damaliger Skepsis aufgrund des Zweiten Weltkriegs.
📊 Kontext und Bedeutung der Elliott-Wellen
Der Sprecher betont, dass die Elliott-Wellentheorie eine einzigartige Methode ist, um den Kontext des Marktes zu verstehen. Sie gibt Tradern eine Art Landkarte, um wichtige Wendepunkte zu erkennen. Viele verpassen diese Punkte, weil sie den Markt linear betrachten, anstatt das nicht-lineare, chaotische Verhalten, das in Elliott-Wellen sichtbar wird, zu verstehen.
📚 Fraktale und soziale Dynamiken
Der Sprecher geht auf die Theorie der sozialen Dynamik ein und vergleicht sie mit der Philosophie von Michel Foucault. Er erklärt, dass nicht Institutionen wie die Zentralbank die Märkte steuern, sondern die Märkte selbst beeinflussen die Entscheidungen dieser Institutionen. Diese Dynamik ähnelt der Theorie von Foucault, wonach Macht nicht nur von oben nach unten wirkt, sondern auch von unten nach oben.
🔍 Elliott-Wellen zur Verbesserung der Chartanalyse
Der Sprecher beschreibt, wie Elliott-Wellen helfen können, kommende Marktentwicklungen vorherzusehen. Ein Schlüsselmerkmal ist die Fähigkeit, Wendepunkte zu erkennen, die viele Händler aufgrund ihrer linearen Sichtweise oft übersehen. Die Wellenanalyse ermöglicht es, bevorstehende Korrekturen wie die schwierige Welle 4 zu antizipieren und sich mental und finanziell darauf vorzubereiten.
📉 Die Dynamik von Welle 3 und Korrekturen
Hier erklärt der Sprecher, dass Welle 3 in der Elliott-Wellentheorie oft die stärkste und dynamischste Welle ist, aber nicht immer die längste sein muss. Besonders die Welle 3 innerhalb der Welle 3, auch als 'Kern von Welle 3' bekannt, ist von besonderer Bedeutung. Trader können diese nutzen, um Positionen strategisch zu eröffnen und die stärksten Marktbewegungen zu erfassen.
🔄 Das Ende von Trends und Vorbereitung auf Wendepunkte
Im letzten Teil wird erklärt, wie Trader die Welle 5 nutzen können, um den Abschluss eines Trends zu erkennen. Wenn sich ein Trend dem Ende nähert, sollte ein Trader darauf vorbereitet sein, Gewinne zu sichern und sich gegen das Risiko einer Trendwende abzusichern. Es wird empfohlen, die Elliott-Wellenanalyse mit anderen technischen Methoden zu kombinieren, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer korrekten Vorhersage zu erhöhen.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Elliot-Wellentheorie
💡Fraktale Geometrie
💡Selbstähnlichkeit
💡Sozionomische Theorie der Finanzen
💡Fibonacci-Sequenz
💡Wellenzählung
💡Welle 3
💡Welle 4-Korrektur
💡Menschliches Verhalten und Märkte
💡Chaostheorie
Highlights
Introduction to Elliot Waves as a chart analysis tool, unrelated to astrology or Nostradamus.
Explanation of fractals and their occurrence in nature, such as in trees and blood vessels.
Fractals exhibit self-similarity, meaning patterns repeat at smaller and smaller scales, like Russian dolls.
Elliot Waves apply the concept of fractal geometry to financial markets, with waves subdividing into smaller versions.
Ralph Nelson Elliot discovered that financial markets follow a five-wave pattern in the direction of the larger trend.
Human behavior and mass psychology create waves of social mood, which leave an imprint on the markets.
Elliot Wave patterns can predict turning points in markets by analyzing human emotions like fear, anxiety, greed, and euphoria.
Elliot correctly predicted an 80-year-long bull market from the 1940s, using his wave analysis.
Elliot Wave theory provides context and a big-picture perspective on market trends, unlike other linear analysis methods.
Elliot Waves are not a crystal ball or astrology; they use the principles of fractal geometry found in nature and human behavior.
Comparison to Michel Foucault’s theory of power, emphasizing that financial markets are driven by bottom-up forces, not omnipotent entities like the Federal Reserve.
Elliot Wave theory helps traders identify key market turning points and avoid missing critical inflection points.
Wave 4 corrections are often messy and unpredictable, but recognizing them can help traders prepare mentally and manage risk.
Wave 3 is typically the strongest and longest part of a trend, but wave 5 can sometimes surpass it in length.
The 'wave 3 of wave 3' is the most powerful part of a trend, and traders can use this to time their entries.
Transcripts
Hi l I hope you're well in this video I
want to explain to you the number one
reason why I use Elliot waves for chart
analysis now you may recall a while ago
I already made a video which you
probably saw as to why I use Elliot
waves I explained that Elliot waves have
nothing to do with astrology or
Nostradamus but in fact Elliot waves are
based on phenomena that occur in nature
now if you've not seen that video the
good news is I'm going to play for you
one more time what I said back then
about Elliot waves but if you have
already seen that video well this will
be a nice refresher for you but at the
end of this I'm going to add for you
some new material so make sure you watch
the end of this video and I'm going to
mention some of the important ways you
can use Elliot waves to improve your
chart analysis all right guys so first
let's dig into the video with what I
said back then about Elliot waves and at
the end of this video we'll come back
and I'll mention some new important
material thanks some people were saying
that all this Elliot wave stuff uh was
Nostradamus you know looking into the
crystal ball to see the future and some
people were saying oh this is astrology
or things like that honestly guys it
seems to me that some people do not
understand why we apply and use Elliot
wave theory so very quickly the key
behind Elliot wave theory is simply
fractals or fractal geometry so what are
fractals the physicist Alan Guth says in
his book The inflationary Universe he
says a fractal is a geometric figure in
which a pattern is repeated at infinum
on smaller and smaller scales actually I
think probably a better definition of a
fractal is what's given by James gleck
in his book chaos I'm sure you've heard
of Chaos Theory well chaos theory is
also called The Butterfly Effect and
here's the thing guys in this book chaos
we learn that fractal systems things
which are fractals exhibit something
called self-similarity in fact fractals
are self-similarity in other words
fractals are simply things which look
roughly the same at different scales
especially on smaller and smaller scales
it's a bit like Russian dolls you know
those Russian dolls which I think are
called matkas when you open one there's
a smaller doll inside and when you open
that one there's another smaller doll
and so on and so on so many decades ago
scientists found that certain things in
nature certain systems exhibit fractal
geometry which means on smaller and
smaller scales they look similar or
roughly the same as the bigger Parts
okay I'll give you an example here think
of the branches of a tree or the leaves
of a tree so when you look at the
branches of a tree notice that they
subdivide the branches subdivide into
smaller but similar versions of the
bigger part you see fractals and
self-similarity also in blood vessels in
human blood vessels you see it on the
coastlines interestingly the physicist
Alan Guth says in his book the inflation
universe that the Multiverse the system
of multiple universes also exhibits
self-similarity or fractals okay let's
go back to what we're talking about
fractals so back about a hundred years
ago Ralph Nelson Elliot he found that
even in financial markets you see
fractals so what Elliot discovered was
that in the financial markets you see
five waves move in the direction of the
larger Trend but three waves against and
he found that this pattern repeat repats
itself on smaller and smaller scales
again in the financial markets so for
example each wave as you can see on this
chart each wave subdivides into smaller
versions of itself of the bigger part on
smaller and smaller scales so you have
waves within waves within waves like
Russian dolls and similar with branches
of a tree as we discussed so in other
words guys fractal geometry occurs in
nature as well as in the financial
markets now you're probably thinking
well why does this pattern occur in the
markets in the first place why does this
Elliot wave pattern occur in the
financial markets well here's the thing
guys according to Bob pror and his
phenomenal work in the socionomic theory
of Finance human behavior and mass
psychology creates waves of social mood
which leaves an imprint leaves a
signature on the markets so when you
think about it human beings we are
emotional creatures we're also
irrational creatures and what investors
and Traders do in the markets and this
could be any Market could be stock
markets Bitcoin gold whatever what
people do in the markets when they're
buying and selling in other words the
way of social mood among investors and
Traders from anxiety fear uh to Euphoria
and greed these waves of social mood
they leave their signature they leave
their imprint their Trace in the markets
and interestingly it follows a fractal
pattern again remember what we discussed
about what fractals are and that is why
we see this fractal pattern this Elliot
wave pattern in the market as Ralph
Nelson Elliot discovered by the way RN
Elliot was able to use his Elliot wave
theory to predict and forecast a minimum
80y year long bull market back from the
1940s so back in the 1940s Elliot said
we're going to be in a bull market for
at least 80 years at the time people
thought it was crazy people were saying
to Elliott how can it be bullish on the
market when we have a war the second
world war in our hands but Elliot was
able to use his wave patterns to
forecast this minimum of 80e long bull
market back from the 1940s which of
course he was correct about by the way
guys one of the key reasons why I love
and I use Elliot wave theory is is
because it's the only method of analysis
out there that provides context no other
method of analysis can give us that in
fact Bob pror agreed with me on this
point that it gives you context like a
big picture or map of the market of
course we're talking about probabilities
here but that's all you need to give you
an idea of where you potentially are in
the big picture and look for turning
points a lot of people Miss turning
points because they're looking at the
market from a linear perspective as
opposed to a nonlinear chaotic
perspective as we find in T patterns and
also in Elliot wave theory all right
guys I'm hoping in this brief
introduction I managed to persuade you
that Elliot wave theory is not some
Hocus Pocus crystal ball magic or Voodoo
as some people say you know like
Nostradamus or astrology no those people
have no idea what they're talking about
as I mentioned Elliot with theory is
simply using the fractal geometry that
exists in nature by the way this subject
of fractals and social mood which is
essentially what drives the markets
reminds me of the work of the French
philosopher Michelle Fuko I'm actually
reading series of works on Power by
Michelle Fuko in this book and Michel
fuko's ideas on power are really
interesting and fascinating and what
Fuko says is that power does not
necessarily work top down like what a
lot of people believe no actually it can
work also bottom up in fact as Michel
Fuko famously says power is everywhere
so with the financial markets a lot of
people think that the reason why markets
move in One Direction or another is
because there has to be some omnipotent
agency like the Federal Reserve or the
government to push the market in One
Direction or another in other words they
think the Federal Reserve drives the
market actually that is not correct as
Bob pror has argued in his book The
socionomic Theory of Finance it is not
the Federal Reserve that drives the
market it's the opposite it's the other
way around it is the market that drives
the Federal Reserve decisions again it
is human behavior emotions and mass
psychology that creates waves of social
mood that ultimately drives the markets
more on this by the way in a separate
video but that also is what Michel Fuko
argues on power power is a productive
force that occurs organically within
society and systems all right guys
welcome back so thank you very much for
watching that video so what I'm going to
do now in this section of the video is
just explain very briefly some of the
ways in which you can use Elliot waves
to improve your chart analysis so as I
mentioned before one of the key benefits
of Elli wave theory is that it can help
you identify what is coming around the
corner in other words because it gives
you context in fact it's the only method
of analysis that gives you an idea where
you are in the big picture like a map so
one of the main strengths in Elli wave
theory is you have an idea the turning
points in the markets you see a lot of
people who just follow Trends people who
just simply follow Trends and movements
in the price they often miss or ignore
what is coming around the corner the key
turning points the key inflection points
in the markets so what often happens is
when price is rallying higher people
just assume the trend will just continue
forever and similarly when price is
going down declining people assume that
the trend to the downside will just
continue forever eternally so the
fundamentally great thing about elied w
theory is that if you can identify with
a high probability as to where you are
in the wave count you can also identify
with a high degree of probability as to
what's going to likely happen next I'll
give you an example if your analysis is
telling you that you're at the final
stage of wave three so for example if
you've done your chart analysis and
let's say you believe that you're in the
wave five of wave three the Final Phase
of wave three then you can prepare
yourself for the wave four correction
now here's something you need to know
about wave four wave four Corrections
are not necessarily clean and precise
like this in fact wave four Corrections
can be very messy unpredictable and very
choppy in their movements so if you
believe based on your analysis that
you're coming to the end of wave three
what's called The Wave five of wave
three then you should prepare yourself
for wave four correction okay and again
wave four Corrections because they're
messy and unpredictable and choppy then
that allows you to prepare for risk not
just risk in the markets but also risk
mentally because often way for
correction can be very frustrating
emotionally and mentally for Traders and
investors so therefore being prepared
for a potential W for correction can
really help us to the turning point in
the market and that also means a Trader
could potentially prepare himself for a
way for correction by taking profits for
example he could take partial profits or
maybe establish a hedge to protect
against a downside risk now here's
another good use of Elliot wave theory
we know that Corrections are formed of
three waves what's called ABC
Corrections if you've done your analysis
and your research and you believe that
you're coming to the end of the wave C
of the correction for example wave two
Corrections or wave four Corrections so
let's say you've had a major big move up
and let's say you've had a three-wave
correction in other words an ABC
correction let's say as an example
you're coming to the end of the c-wave
of wave two then you ought to prepare
yourself for potential wave three and
that is important because wave three is
typically the strongest and most dynamic
part of a trend It's usually the longest
wave but it doesn't have to be the
longest wave and by the way guys that's
a common misconception a lot of people
think that wave three is always the
longest wave in a trend not true
sometimes the wave five can be the
longest wave the rules of Elliot wave
theory simply say that wave three can
never be the shortest impulse wave so
out of the three waves waves 1 three and
five wave three can never be the
shortest wave it is typically the
longest but it doesn't have to be and
here's another important way you can use
Elliot wave theory we've already said
that wave three is typically the
strongest and most dynamic part of a
wave but did you know that within wave
three the strongest most powerful part
of that wave three is the wave three of
the wave three this is what's often
called The Wave Three core by the way if
you're confused by this terminology all
that means is because wave three of a
trend is subdivided into five waves the
wave three within the wave three is the
strongest and most powerful part of the
wave three so what that means for
Traders is that what they could do is
wait until the beginning of that wave
three of the wave three before they
establish a position and finally we know
that wave five is the last final part of
a trend what's often called the last
gasp stage the last climax in the market
or in the trend so therefore if based on
your analysis you believe you're in the
final wave the wave five of the wave
five that means you should prepare
yourself for potential reversal a key
inflection point as an example if you
believe you're coming to the wave five
of the wave five the last portion the
last section of a trend to the upside
then that means we're getting very close
to potential top and the market then a
Trader in that situation could decide to
take more profits and perhaps even
protect themselves against some kind of
downside risk in case the market then
breaks support and then starts a
reversal in the pattern now by the way
you should always combine other
technical methods too for example a
break of support or maybe some kind of a
topping pattern or something like that
so you can combine other technical
methods with Elliot waves to increase
the probability all right guys I'm
hoping this video is helped you in some
way thank you very much for watching and
I look forward to seeing you in the next
video update bye for
now
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