#999 - How Can You Profit From This Next Cycle? | With Raoul Pal and Jamie Coutts

Real Vision Daily Briefing
21 Mar 202447:09

Summary

TLDRRaoul Pal, alongside influential speakers like Edward Snowden and Benedict Devans, will discuss the transformative potential of AI at the Super AI event in Singapore, June 3-9, 2024. With 5,000 attendees and 150 side events, the conference will explore AI's impact on financial markets and the world. Register for a 20% discount with the code 'Real Vision' at realvision.com.

Takeaways

  • 📅 Ral will be speaking at the Super AI event in Singapore on June 5th and 6th, 2024, discussing the transformative potential of AI.
  • 🤖 The Super AI event will gather over 5,000 attendees and feature more than 150 side events, making Singapore a hub for AI innovation.
  • 🌐 Prominent speakers like Edward Snowden and Benedict Devans will also be in attendance, sharing insights on AI's impact on the world.
  • 🎉 The event is expected to be a vibrant gathering that explores AI's influence on financial markets and the broader global landscape.
  • 💡 Ral emphasizes the importance of understanding the challenges and opportunities presented by AI, particularly in the context of financial markets.
  • 🚀 Ral has been a long-time advocate for cryptocurrencies, seeing them as a fast asset in a debt-driven cycle.
  • 🔗 The conversation between Ral and Jamie Cotts, Real Vision's chief crypto analyst, highlights the growing interest and investment in the crypto space.
  • 🌐 The discussion touches on the role of technology, particularly blockchain, in the ongoing revolution and its accessibility for investment.
  • 💭 Ral expresses concerns about the difficulty of generating value in the AI space due to the dominance of entities like Open AI.
  • 🔄 The conversation also explores the potential for market cycles and the impact of ETFs on the crypto market, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.
  • 📈 Ral and Jamie provide insights into the future of investments, retirement planning, and the importance of adapting to the changing landscape of finance and technology.

Q & A

  • What is the significance of the AI event 'Super AI' taking place in Singapore in June 2024?

    -The 'Super AI' event is the largest AI event in Asia, showcasing the extraordinary potential of AI and its profound impact on financial markets and the world. It will gather over 5,000 attendees and feature more than 150 side events, making Singapore a vibrant AI hub for the week.

  • Who are some of the notable speakers at the 'Super AI' event?

    -The event will feature brilliant minds such as Edward Snowden, Benedict Devans, and Bellagi Aravind, among others, discussing various aspects of AI's influence and potential.

  • How can one register for the 'Super AI' event with a discount?

    -To register for the event with a 20% discount, one can visit the Real Vision website and use the promo code 'Real Vision'.

  • What is the main topic of discussion in the Real Vision Deli briefing with R pal and Jamie Coots?

    -The main topic of discussion is the exploration of the retirement crisis, the role of financial markets as problem solvers, and the significant macro opportunity presented by cryptocurrencies.

  • What is R pal's stance on the correlation between debt cycles and the performance of cryptocurrencies?

    -R pal believes that if everything is correlated and driven by the same debt cycle, it's beneficial to back the fastest asset, which he identifies as cryptocurrencies, particularly since their introduction in 2014.

  • How does R pal view the current state of AI investments?

    -R pal thinks that investing in AI is challenging because there isn't a pure AI company to trade. He suggests that most investable options are tied to other aspects like semiconductors, and he questions the bubble-like nature of the AI sector.

  • What is the impact of Open AI on the investment returns in AI according to R pal?

    -R pal believes that Open AI, with its significant resources and use of AGI, disrupts the market so effectively that it's very difficult for new startups and VC investments in AI to generate returns, as they often get outcompeted or destroyed by Open AI.

  • What is the significance of the Bitcoin ETF launch according to Jamie Coots?

    -Jamie Coots views the Bitcoin ETF launch as a significant development that has made crypto more accessible and is expected to bring a steady influx of investments into the market over many years.

  • How does Jamie Coots perceive the role of the SEC in the growth of the cryptocurrency market?

    -Jamie Coots finds the SEC's stance on Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies confusing and believes it's an institution that is trying to slow down the rapid growth of crypto to protect vested interests, rather than outright stopping it.

  • What is R pal's outlook on the future of AI applications and businesses?

    -R pal envisions a complex future where AI's ability to create applications itself challenges the traditional business model. He predicts a world beyond 2030 where many truths we hold to be self-evident will no longer apply, and societies will need to figure out how to operate in this new environment.

Outlines

00:00

📅 Upcoming AI Event in Singapore

Ra'pal announces his participation in the largest AI event in Asia, Super AI, scheduled for June 5th and 6th, 2024, in Singapore. He will be joining other brilliant minds like Edward Snowden, Benedict Devans, and Bellagi Arvon Sage to discuss the extraordinary potential of AI and its profound impact on financial markets and the world. The event expects over 5,000 attendees and more than 150 side events, making Singapore an AI hub from June 3rd to June 9th. Ra'pal encourages registration through Real Vision with a 20% discount using the code 'Real Vision'.

05:01

🤖 AI and the Future of Technology

The conversation delves into the future of AI and technology, with Ra'pal and Jamie Coots, Real Vision's co-founder and chief crypto analyst, discussing the retirement crisis and the optimistic outlook despite big challenges. Ra'pal highlights the agreement on problems like debt, aging populations, and central bank interventions but uncertainty on solutions. He emphasizes the role of financial markets as problem solvers and the potential of crypto as the fastest asset. Jamie brings up the technology revolution, including blockchain, and the challenges of investing in AI due to the lack of pure AI companies. They discuss the impact of public market activities and the potential of private market investments in AI.

10:02

💡 Insights on Crypto and Market Cycles

Jamie and Ra'pal discuss the recent Bitcoin ETF success and its implications for the crypto market. Jamie notes the surprise at the ETF's rapid growth and anticipates a slow, steady influx of funds into the market. Ra'pal expresses skepticism about the SEC's stance on Ethereum and sees it as an attempt to slow down the crypto transition. They discuss the potential for institutional investment in crypto and the impact on market cycles, with Ra'pal suggesting a 'trojan horse' effect of ETFs to introduce people to crypto. Jamie also mentions the possibility of sovereign-level accumulation of Bitcoin.

15:03

📈 Market Analysis and Investor Behavior

The discussion continues with market analysis, focusing on the potential for a market correction and investor behavior. Ra'pal and Jamie consider the impact of ETF flows on market growth and the multiplier effect. They debate the potential length and nature of the current market cycle, with Ra'pal forecasting a moderate cycle and Jamie emphasizing the importance of derivatives markets. They also touch on the generational wealth transfer and its influence on market trends, with Ra'pal advocating for a long-term, less volatile approach to investing.

20:05

💡 Retirement Planning and Longevity

The conversation shifts to retirement planning and the longevity trend. Ra'pal and Jamie discuss the importance of considering wellness and technology in preparing for the future, with Ra'pal mentioning the Fountain Life clinics and the advancements in diagnostics and preventative medicine. They emphasize the need to think holistically about retirement and to make intelligent decisions based on individual circumstances. Jamie also talks about his upcoming workshop on crypto, focusing on the generational transition and wealth transfer to Millennials.

25:05

🌐 Final Thoughts and Upcoming Workshops

Ra'pal and Jamie conclude the discussion with final thoughts on market trends and the upcoming workshops. Ra'pal reiterates his positive outlook on risk and technology, while Jamie addresses the concern of selling too early in a strong market trend. They encourage viewers to attend the workshops for more insights and to register for the Super AI event in Singapore. The conversation ends with a reminder of the $1 offer for 14 days of access to more content and workshops.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡AI

Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to the development of computer systems that can perform tasks typically requiring human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and language translation. In the context of the video, AI is discussed as a transformative technology with profound implications for financial markets and the world, indicating its growing importance and potential in various sectors.

💡Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography for security and operates on decentralized networks, such as blockchain technology, making it resistant to government control and manipulation. In the video, cryptocurrency is presented as a major macro opportunity and a key area of focus, with references to Bitcoin and Ethereum highlighting its role as an alternative asset class and store of value.

💡Retirement Crisis

A retirement crisis refers to a situation where a significant portion of the population is unprepared for retirement, either due to insufficient savings, inadequate pension plans, or poor financial planning. In the video, the retirement crisis is mentioned as a major challenge facing society, with the speakers discussing the need for individuals to take proactive steps to secure their financial future, such as investing in assets like cryptocurrencies and technology stocks.

💡Demographic Shifts

Demographic shifts refer to changes in the size, composition, distribution, and characteristics of a population over time. These shifts can have significant social, economic, and political implications. In the context of the video, demographic shifts are discussed in relation to the aging population and the associated challenges, as well as the opportunities they present for investments in areas like longevity and wellness technologies.

💡Blockchain

Blockchain is a decentralized, distributed ledger technology that allows data to be stored across a network of computers in a secure, tamper-proof, and transparent manner. It is most commonly associated with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin but has a wide range of other potential applications. In the video, blockchain is highlighted as a key part of the technology revolution and its role in enabling new ways of investing and conducting transactions.

💡ETF

An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund and exchange-traded product that holds a collection of assets, such as stocks, bonds, or commodities, and is traded on stock exchanges similar to individual stocks. ETFs are popular because they offer diversification, low costs, and tax efficiency. In the video, the success of Bitcoin ETFs is discussed, indicating a growing interest and accessibility for investors to participate in the cryptocurrency market through traditional financial channels.

💡Longevity

Longevity refers to the quality or state of living for a long life; it often encompasses the science, policies, and social changes related to living longer and healthier lives. In the video, longevity is discussed in the context of investment opportunities in health and wellness technologies, as the aging population creates a demand for solutions that can enhance life quality and extend working years.

💡Technology Revolution

A technology revolution refers to a significant and rapid change brought about by the introduction of new technologies that alter the way people live, work, and interact with each other. The current technology revolution is characterized by advancements in areas like artificial intelligence, blockchain, and biotechnology. In the video, the technology revolution is a central theme, with the speakers exploring how these technological advancements are reshaping financial markets and the broader world.

💡Investment Strategies

Investment strategies refer to the approaches or plans that individuals or institutions use to achieve their financial goals, which may include diversification, risk management, and asset allocation. In the video, investment strategies are discussed in the context of preparing for retirement, navigating the cryptocurrency market, and capitalizing on the opportunities presented by technological advancements and demographic shifts.

💡Market Volatility

Market volatility refers to the rapid and frequent fluctuations in the price of stocks, currencies, or other financial instruments. It is often caused by factors such as economic uncertainty, geopolitical events, or corporate news, and can present both risks and opportunities for investors. In the video, market volatility is a concern for investors in the cryptocurrency and technology sectors, as it can lead to significant gains or losses.

Highlights

Raoul Pal will be speaking at the largest AI event in Asia, Super AI, in Singapore.

The event will take place from June 5th to 6th, 2024, at the iconic Marina Bay Sands.

Brilliant minds like Edward Snowden, Benedict Devans, and Bellagi Aravind will also be in attendance.

The event will explore the extraordinary potential of AI and its profound impact on financial markets and the world.

There will be over 5,000 attendees and more than 150 side events, making Singapore an AI hub from June 3rd to 9th.

Visitors can register with a 20% discount using the code 'Real Vision' at the Real Vision Docomo website.

The Real Vision Deliberating briefing features Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal and chief crypto analyst Jamie Coots.

The discussion revolves around the retirement crisis, the challenges it poses, and the optimistic outlook despite the difficulties.

There is a general agreement on the problems caused by debt, aging populations, and central bank interventions.

Financial markets are seen as problem solvers, with people looking for different ways to tackle issues, such as the use of gold and cryptocurrencies.

Cryptocurrencies are considered the fastest asset, with Pal advocating for them since 2014 on Real Vision.

The conversation also touches on the technology revolution, with blockchain being a significant part of it.

AI is a recurring theme, with discussions on how to invest in it and the challenges of the current market.

The panelists express concerns about the future, especially with the rapid advancements in AI and its implications on businesses and society.

The conversation also includes a discussion on the recent Bitcoin ETF success and its impact on the crypto market.

Jamie Coots shares his insights on the crypto market's reaction to the ETF and the potential for future growth.

The panelists agree that the market is still in its early stages, with more institutional involvement expected over time.

The discussion concludes with thoughts on the potential for a more substantial crypto market correction and the unique dynamics of this cycle.

Transcripts

play00:00

hi I'm Ral pal on the 5th and 6th of

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June 2024 I'll be speaking of the

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largest AI events in Asia super AI in

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Singapore at the iconic Marina Bay Sand

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alongside brilliant mins like Edward

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Snowden Benedict devans and bellari are

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on Sage exploring the extraordinary

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potential of AI and the profound change

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it represents not just for financial

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markets but also for the World As We

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Know It with over 5,000 attendees and

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over 150 side events Singapore will

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become a vibrant AI hub for a full week

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from the 3rd to the 9th of June so visit

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realvision

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docomo to register and join me with 20%

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off tickets with the code real Vision

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the links in the

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[Music]

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description how can you profit from this

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next cycle hi everyone Welcome to the

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Real Vision Deli briefing I'm Maggie

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Lake and with me today is real Vision

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co-founder R pal and Jamie Coots our

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chief crypto analyst hello gentlemen

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double

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trouble he Magie double Jamie's like I'm

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not even signing on to that he's like hi

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you're right it's always Double Trouble

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When R's here and our opening question

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listen it's just a nice way of saying

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how do we not F this up right and that

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is the question that we've been asking

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all week and really looking at for the

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past two weeks in this special series

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we've been doing and Ral you kicked it

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off with some pretty Stark warnings

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about the retirement crisis that we're

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all facing um but it's not all doom and

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gloom and throughout the conversations I

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was really struck by even in the first

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week the fact that there was optimism

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punching through even though we were

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talking about some of these really big

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challenges um and and some of it was

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sort of contrary uh you know that on the

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one hand it's really bad but here's how

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I here's the sort of optimistic thing

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I'm thinking about I'm just wondering

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how you're feeling as we wrap up this

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two we

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campaign I think people have been aware

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for a long time now that everybody's

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pretty and the world is kind of

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rigged against you unless you have all

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the

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assets and so people get that so I think

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a lot of people have been thinking

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through it I think what's interesting is

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most people agree what's gone wrong

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people aren't sure how it went wrong you

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know I'm demographics biased other

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people are whatever um but they kind of

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all roughly agree with the problems

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itself debt aging

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populations excess intervention by

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central banks to try and solve these

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problems all of these things government

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interventions in that whole in the whole

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thing but people have you know financial

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markets are problem solvers by core so

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they're always looking for different

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ways and you know a bunch of people

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would say and have been saying for a

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long time gold is the answer and gold

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has done okay in this environment you

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know it's protected Global purchasing

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power hasn't done hasn't created wealth

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but it's kind of protect it you know

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other people look at other ways of doing

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it um you know and

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I got to the conclusion that if

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everything is correlated and driven by

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this same debt cycle then you just want

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to back the fastest asset and by a long

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way it's crypto which I you know I keep

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pounding the table have done since 2014

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on realvision that this is the biggest

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macro opportunity of all time since the

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first time I talked about Bitcoin on

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real Vision it's up 450,000

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per. I mean it sounds it sounds makeb

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believe when you say that number bananas

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right this is a bananas world we live in

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and it's a

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gift it is so I'm gonna take a step back

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and say one of the two themes that came

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up yes crypto is a part of it and we

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know you feel strongly about that

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Jamie's looking into it and Jamie just

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said before we came on um and we had

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some folks listening in welcome to all

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you nft holders um that you know when I

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looked at equities so all everyone has a

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foot in macro still has a foot in macro

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started out in macro before they went

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down into crypto or got on that

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bandwagon but at the core it's really

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technology right and that's the other

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big theme that came through um in this

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series is is sort of the technology

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Revolution that we're facing and

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blockchain is a part of that um the the

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issue and we're going to get into that a

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little bit and Jamie I'm interested to

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hear your thoughts has always been

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access to that right where as rest of us

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can feel and use an access technology

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and invest more easily in technology the

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CIS crypto part of it has been a little

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bit more challenging although that may

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be changing so so let's let's talk about

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those two buckets and I'm going to start

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with technology first Ral and one of the

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things that comes up again and again is

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AI and we had a great conversation

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between Jordy and Beth in fact

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somebody's like who's the genius that

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those put those two together and behind

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the scenes we're all like who's that we

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think it might have been ral's idea damn

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you we think it was your idea but it was

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a great conversation um and really

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talking about what that's doing and ways

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to invest in that um and this is

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something that you've been looking at a

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long time you've talked to both of them

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before in the past does it feel bubbly

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to you does it feel like we're in the

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early Innings how are you thinking about

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AI there's not even an AI company to

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trade

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we're trading so I don't know how it's a

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bubble I mean yeah you can trade

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Microsoft but it comes with a bunch of

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other stuff Nvidia okay it's a chipmaker

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yes it's creating AI software and other

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stuff that's the closest we've got so

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it's not like there's a bunch of you

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know it's not like 2,000 where every

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tech company goes up we just don't have

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that so I'm not sure how investable it

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really is outside of the semiconductors

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which I've been long of for a year for

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pro macro um and also in the exponential

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and they've done incredibly well and

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they continue to go well because there

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was a panic to buy

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computes but what was really interesting

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is Elon Musk was talking earlier in the

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week um about okay there's a panic to

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buy compute now most people have put in

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the sort of orders they need to put in

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so going forwards nvidia's growth may

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slow whether it's next year or the year

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after and it will inevitably slow right

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this is like a pandemic Panic into into

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purchasing stuff um but he's like well

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the next thing is you need Transformers

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to step power down from power plants to

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chips and it's like we don't have enough

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in the world he was speaking at Bosch

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the German electronics company and said

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you guys need to make more of this stuff

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we're about to run out of the ability to

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generate enough power to generate all of

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this stuff and then he's saying and then

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we got a problem with electricity we're

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just not ready for the amount of power

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we need for this compute so this story

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is going to keep unfolding and we really

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have only just started yeah one of the

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interesting things Beth said was in this

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cycle I thought this was such an

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interesting comment that a lot of what's

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Happening will see if it continues is

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happening in publicly traded companies

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whereas previously now not not to say

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there's not a boatload of money being

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invested in the private Market chasing

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this but there is a lot of activity in

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the public Market as these companies

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move into that business that wasn't

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always the case in other Cycles I was so

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interesting so think what's happening

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here I'm not sure that

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VC in AI is even going to generate any

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returns and the reason being is by the

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time you raise the capital launch your

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product open AI has destroyed it I

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actually personally believe that open AI

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is building AI using AGI or something

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close to AGI so they're using there's no

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way 500 people can generate this much

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disruption across this many business

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lines in this speed right so I think

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they're doing a different process than

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anybody else so every time there's a

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bunch of new startups come along open AI

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just basically destroys them so I think

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it's very very very difficult to

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generate value in this space unless you

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have all the compute so there's a few

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companies the French one mistr um you

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know I'm not even sure how mad's

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stability AI um will do and I think it's

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really really hard to compete in this

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it's really hard to compete you need

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Deep Pockets you need that power

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eventually as you mentioned you're going

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to need the energy um it's it's it's

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different than what we've seen before J

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because the applications layer don't

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forget Within by the time GPT 5 comes

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out they'll have um samon was talking

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about this they'll have

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multi-agents which means that you can

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ask it to build a website that does X

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blah blah blah and it'll just do it all

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so how do you build businesses on the

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applications layer when the AI itself

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can create the applications layer in 10

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minutes and then you get into the

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problem in the future is let's

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say somebody developed something amazing

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and it's really cool it's getting

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traction so you go to the AGI and say I

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want to replicate this product but with

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stronger behavioral incentives and I

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want to skew it towards the larger

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audience of India go it'll build it in

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10

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minutes so then how do you build

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companies and I talked about this in my

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piece is like Beyond 2030 this becomes a

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very very very complicated world because

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a lot of what we understand to be true

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will not be true any

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longer yeah which is a daunting thing to

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think about and and this is also why we

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kind of kicked off the series close to

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the top of a geopolitical conversation

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with D Smith and Jacob because you're

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talking about how to Bild businesses how

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do you how do you create a business in

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that environment we got to figure out

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how we op you know operate as Societies

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in that environment and it's going to be

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messy as we make that transition um

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Jamie I want to bring you in though um

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let's talk a little bit about what's

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happening in crypto so of course that is

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the other big sort of opportunity set

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people are talking about and we now have

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a situation where we have this Bitcoin

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ETF so

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theoretically uh it is a little bit more

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accessible to people some of the barrier

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perhaps has been taken down we know that

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there's been headlines around how

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successful how quickly it's grown the

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most successful ETF launch ever if you

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just look at the speed in which it it

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generated inflows how are you thinking

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about the crypto Market in the wake of

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that what what are you seeing and what

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are you

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hearing yeah well I mean the success of

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the ETF products um I think it's taken

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most people by surprise we're seeing

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just in the last week or the last couple

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of days we're seeing some outflows so

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we're starting to see that first that

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first pullback really from the um from

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what we saw from the outset but really

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we are still very very early in this

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game there are a lot of platforms that

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have not yet signed up or opened up to

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the to the ETFs so I think this will be

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you know a drip feed into the market

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over you know many many years um but

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Bitcoin is still going to be subject and

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crypto is still going to be subject to

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the same cycles that we've seen before

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um so the the real big question now in

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regards to the ETF

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is what about ethereum and so obviously

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we've got an SEC that is still outwardly

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against the idea of an ethereum ETF

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which is just bananas when you think

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about it like they've approved an

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ethereum Futures ETF um so they I mean

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if that's the case then they what

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they've done is effectively illegal by

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approving that product in the first

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place um you've got all of the emails

play11:57

that came out from the previous chairman

play12:00

which clearly stated that amongst all

play12:03

the SEC officials at that time they

play12:06

didn't believe that ethereum was the

play12:08

security so it's just it's confusing to

play12:10

the market and I think this is really

play12:12

just the last gasping breaths of a

play12:15

system or a

play12:17

institution that is beholden to certain

play12:20

interests that are not aligned with the

play12:22

future not aligned with the you know the

play12:25

the the productivity and The Innovation

play12:28

that's required to dig the country and

play12:30

to dig every nation state out of the

play12:33

hole that's been created over the last

play12:37

you know multi-decade period and so I

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think we're starting to see you know one

play12:42

of the best indicators for the change in

play12:44

sentiment that we're seeing globally is

play12:47

really what's happening just in the US

play12:49

presidential election cycle this time

play12:50

around like in 2020 ra do you remember

play12:54

anyone suggesting without being laughed

play12:56

out of the room that it would become a

play12:59

presidential issue or a policy platform

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of any of the presidential candidates it

play13:04

was like it was not even remotely on the

play13:07

radar now you've got candidates from all

play13:10

sides of politics actually promoting the

play13:13

concepts of you know monetary

play13:16

sovereignty and the need for you know a

play13:19

Digital hard asset and neutral um

play13:21

neutral currency like Bitcoin but it's

play13:23

extending to also the cryptocurrency

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space as well so I just think it's you

play13:28

know what we're seeing is just the last

play13:31

gasps of you know one of my views on

play13:33

this Jamie is

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that everybody knows how messy the

play13:38

system is I think the central Bankers

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are not stupid everybody knows and they

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know what they're doing they're debasing

play13:43

currency to try to not this let the

play13:45

system blow up because all of the

play13:46

savings are with the retirees and it's

play13:49

you know it's a big mess so their one

play13:53

job is to not allow the migration into

play13:55

cryptoland to happen too fast I don't

play13:58

think they're going to stop it

play13:59

I don't think they even probably want to

play14:01

stop it I don't think the the banks want

play14:03

to stop it I don't think anybody wants

play14:04

to stop it but I think their real job is

play14:07

to slow it down what they don't want

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is is Bitcoin as a deemed to be a

play14:14

currency you know a world currency as an

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asset as a store of value knock your

play14:19

socks off as as an investment no problem

play14:23

you want to build on top of the

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technology no problem just don't think

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of it as a world currency because that

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threatens the overall system but that's

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I kind of I just think of them as

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throttling it so even you know I think

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all of us are laughing at the SEC trying

play14:40

to Now call Ether security I think it's

play14:43

just a delay tactic as ever just slow it

play14:46

down it could very well be but I also

play14:49

think about it this way it's the it's

play14:51

the Dynamics of a messy democratic

play14:53

system where you've got vested interests

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and I think some vested interests do

play14:57

want to stop it

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but what it ends up being is this sort

play15:01

of they just basically putting the

play15:03

brakes on the slowing it down as you

play15:05

said because there's now multiple

play15:08

factions involved and that creates the

play15:10

market for the prices and but also

play15:13

creates the market for the memes and

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everything else that come to regulations

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so you know it's it's um it feels

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frustrating one thing that makes me

play15:22

laugh Jamie is the more that they try

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and constrict it or slow it down

play15:26

whatever right the more the space gets

play15:29

ridiculous the more the memes come the

play15:32

more the middle finger comes up the more

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the the space reacts

play15:37

to that kind of pressure it makes me

play15:41

laugh how how much people don't care

play15:44

about what the old system says

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anymore yeah I don't think they fully

play15:49

understand what they're messing with

play15:52

right you you guys you you find it um by

play15:56

the way there was like for one H second

play15:57

almost a meme coin of Ralph if I'm not

play15:59

mistaken um which was hilarious this

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week but um but you find it funny and

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entertaining and a sort of you know F

play16:08

you to the man to the government or to

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The Regulators other people see this as

play16:13

sort of cassino like volatility that

play16:16

scares them when they're trying to think

play16:18

about whether they should go into this

play16:20

or put this in their portfolio or try to

play16:22

figure out how to go through the Hoops

play16:25

to to to to do that um Melvin asked

play16:28

we've seen massive Bitcoin ETF inflows

play16:31

will we see massive outflows when we

play16:33

reach the end of macro summer beginning

play16:35

fall or will the institutions behave

play16:38

differently this time Jamie first of all

play16:41

is this being driven by institutions um

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Jim biano made the argument that this is

play16:45

still cuq on steroids this is weak

play16:48

retail hands he feels like and people

play16:49

who are looking for the early gain he

play16:51

doesn't feel like there's a lot of

play16:53

institutional muscle in this yet but but

play16:56

either of you can disagree with that um

play16:58

but you know how how should we think

play17:00

about this volatility and R I know

play17:01

you're always warning that this is an

play17:03

alien asset still and it's young and

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this is part of what you buy into when

play17:07

you go there but if we're talking about

play17:08

crypto as a possible way to build wealth

play17:13

in the next 10 years before none of us

play17:15

can see the future anymore you know that

play17:17

that matters to some people especially

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depending on your risk profile Jamie you

play17:20

first and then

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Ral okay so the market structures

play17:24

definitely change it changes every

play17:26

single cycle there's a new cohort comes

play17:29

in so there is institutions involved in

play17:32

this cycle you can see it in the median

play17:35

transaction value of Bitcoin transfers

play17:38

so it reached a you know a disastrously

play17:42

low um median price of transfer level

play17:46

around seven or eight months ago it was

play17:48

just it was around $10 now that's gone

play17:50

up to 300 it's just one measure I mean

play17:53

the price has gone up as well so you

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have to sort of disentangle that but

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definitely transfer value values and the

play17:59

onchain data is clear some of the buyers

play18:02

of the ETFs are institutions Black Rock

play18:05

and Fidelity themselves are allocating

play18:08

some of their other ETFs their

play18:09

multi-asset ETFs into this product which

play18:12

was always the long-term game plan and

play18:15

so I think a lot of Institutions are

play18:17

doing the same thing they're thinking

play18:19

about as the new asset class I certainly

play18:21

think that is the case digital assets in

play18:23

a hole and I would you know bucket that

play18:25

Bitcoin and everything else but some of

play18:28

the allocations are going into long-term

play18:32

multi-asset type portfolios which will

play18:35

have a they'll have an impact a very

play18:38

differing impact on the Cycles because

play18:41

the way that they treat those

play18:42

allocations the way they rebalance uh

play18:45

based on performance will change

play18:47

potentially smooth some of the

play18:49

volatility over the long term but

play18:51

there's still retail there there's still

play18:53

the same sort of um you know you know

play18:55

fomo activity that we've seen in

play18:57

previous Cycles but I don't think you

play18:59

can you can say that this is the same as

play19:02

every other cycle it's it's

play19:05

changed well

play19:07

also the raas do the same kind of thing

play19:10

is like they

play19:11

just often will say to their clients

play19:13

we'll put 1% of your portfolio and the

play19:15

discretionary stuff so that

play19:18

changes I think they all are aware how

play19:21

volatile this is It's been sold to them

play19:23

as a volatile asset and there a

play19:25

long-term thing my guess is there's more

play19:27

long-term holders later you'll get the

play19:29

fomo retail of everybody trying to do

play19:31

this but right now this is a lot of

play19:34

people like bitwise Fidelity Franklin

play19:36

everybody going to their client base

play19:38

talking them through it explaining it

play19:40

you know this is more thoughtful

play19:42

allocation the other thing that people

play19:44

haven't realized is you can now put it

play19:47

in your

play19:48

401k so the average Millennial who's a

play19:51

buyer of the NASDAQ or the S&P 500

play19:56

passive index products will buy this and

play19:58

they

play19:59

every two weeks with a paycheck and so

play20:01

we will see a difference in the

play20:03

structure of flows as Jamie is alluding

play20:04

to it's just going to change probably

play20:07

means it's less volatile on the down

play20:11

cycle it also could cause a full bubble

play20:14

on the Up Cycle this time around because

play20:16

you've got numerous new participants who

play20:18

could enter and you know this is a

play20:20

limited Supply asset and 80% of it

play20:22

hoarded so it can get pretty tricky so I

play20:25

don't know how how it plays out but I

play20:28

don't agree with Jim biano um I know a

play20:30

lot of purists don't like it because

play20:33

it's an ETF and not people opening

play20:35

wallets and self- custody I actually

play20:38

think of it as a trojan horse where

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we're actually teaching people about

play20:42

this product before you know it they

play20:44

understand why they're buying it and

play20:45

they come into cryptand um

play20:49

so I think I think it's relatively good

play20:51

quality holders also Hunter horley

play20:54

hinted that um I think it's on the

play20:56

quarterly statements you'll see who the

play20:58

big holders of the ETFs are and he

play21:02

hinted that you'll be surprised who's on

play21:04

the list bitwise right Hunter bitwise

play21:06

yeah yeah um

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interesting yeah I've got this sne

play21:11

suspicion too Maggie that um we've

play21:14

already started to see accumulation by

play21:17

institutions at a sovereign level

play21:18

whether that's Sovereign wealth funds

play21:20

the pensions potentially nation states

play21:24

you've got mining operations now in

play21:25

several countries around the world where

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the countries themselves have

play21:29

co-invested with private mining

play21:31

companies so and these These are

play21:33

countries that are sort of typically

play21:35

energy rich um and are significant

play21:38

players within that you know within the

play21:40

energy markets and I think they see the

play21:42

world very differently to you know

play21:46

Europe or the United States or Western

play21:48

countries I don't think we'll see any

play21:50

major announcements in the short term I

play21:53

just think that you know my working

play21:55

hypothesis is that they're accumulating

play21:57

they've got access to virgin Bitcoin

play21:59

through the mining operations if they

play22:00

foresee a world in which Bitcoin does

play22:02

become significant they can avoid one of

play22:05

the major steps in in disclosing and

play22:07

showing their cards by going to a black

play22:10

rock going to a coinbase to acquire

play22:12

coins they have access to Virgin coins

play22:15

domestically so it's just um you know

play22:18

it's another sign for me that you know

play22:20

the game has

play22:21

changed fascinating stuff um and Pluto

play22:24

five I think that answers your question

play22:26

slimy Tom love these handles uh slimy

play22:29

Tom asks we had a mild for crypto

play22:33

correction do either of you think we

play22:34

will face a more substantial draw down

play22:36

along the lines of the usual prehab 30

play22:39

plus

play22:40

percent

play22:42

um doesn't fa so I mean we did I sold

play22:46

did what

play22:48

23% maybe it makes a new low could be an

play22:50

ABC correction or it just forms another

play22:52

little wedge pattern I really have a

play22:54

strong view but you should just expect

play22:56

30% as normal course of business

play22:59

and if you get away with less than that

play23:01

great I don't know Jamie you got a

play23:03

view not really I mean this you know I

play23:07

think pomp said on TV a couple of days

play23:09

ago this is a pullback for an this is a

play23:11

Bitcoin pullback for ants I mean like

play23:13

it's not even 30% we we should expect 30

play23:17

to 40% pullbacks in a bull market where

play23:20

we've seen

play23:22

150% uh appreciation in just the last 12

play23:25

months so it's been a little bit unus

play23:28

usual and that's really the structural

play23:29

buyer of the ETFs that's smooth things

play23:32

out um I follow the derivatives markets

play23:34

really closely um perhaps more closely

play23:37

than I should given I just got Scar isue

play23:39

from the last cycle because that was

play23:41

really what brought the markets um you

play23:44

know undone eventually in Bitcoin I

play23:46

still think they're going to play a

play23:48

major role I'm watching it like just for

play23:50

for the earli signs that we bu we're

play23:53

starting to see the buildup of

play23:54

concerning leverage and um sort of

play23:57

behavior that is top you know is toppy

play24:01

in nature um and you know you still see

play24:04

very high open interest but the funding

play24:06

rates have come down now the funding

play24:08

rates still elevated so we do need a

play24:11

reset we need some of the open interest

play24:13

to go away we need um funding rates to

play24:15

get somewhere back to neutral um but it

play24:18

could be very well be that they stay a

play24:20

little bit more elevated because we've

play24:23

got the perception ETFs are there

play24:25

they're buying every day at 3 to five

play24:27

times the supply

play24:29

I'm fine I can take this leverage and

play24:30

that sort of builds in you know risks

play24:33

over the long term but to your point

play24:36

Maggie like yeah we could pull back a

play24:37

little bit further but I think um you

play24:39

know we're sort of at the halfway point

play24:41

of the cycle I mean some of the I would

play24:43

just put this a little point in as well

play24:45

there are some indicators onchain

play24:47

indicators which are in the top end of

play24:50

the valuation ranges based on previous

play24:52

history so if you look at the pure

play24:54

multiple which looks at the the fee

play24:56

revenue from miners uh over the last 365

play25:00

days and where that tends to PE that's

play25:01

very high that's very elevated that's

play25:03

been a very strong indicator of of

play25:05

Bitcoin tops but the difference is that

play25:08

you know inscriptions are only about a

play25:10

year old so that is a new form of demand

play25:14

for Block space which you know every

play25:17

cycle is different so it's changing

play25:19

things a little bit but we you know

play25:20

we've got some you've got some onchain

play25:22

signs that we're definitely in the sort

play25:23

of second half of this this bull

play25:26

market fantastic stuff the fact that

play25:29

you're so deeply looking derivatives um

play25:31

boggles my mind but makes me thrilled

play25:33

that you're our chief crypto strategist

play25:36

Jamie thank you for that uh question

play25:38

slightly off topic Jamie please tell us

play25:40

about the Clapton guitar behind you I

play25:42

know it's off topic but it is a Clapton

play25:45

right yeah it's it's a signed Eric

play25:47

Clapton Fender um I can't play I just

play25:52

love music I picked this up at an

play25:54

auction years ago it's probably the only

play25:56

thing I've ever bid on in an auction it

play25:59

wasn't as much as what people might

play26:01

think so hopefully it's worth a lot more

play26:03

even if it even if it is I'm not selling

play26:05

it um but yeah I think it's it's got one

play26:08

of his signed albums as well so it's so

play26:11

it's quite funny because I like Jamie

play26:13

love music I like Jamie cannot play

play26:15

guitar I have assigned David Bowie

play26:19

Bender Strat that was in the office in

play26:20

the real Vision office in New York I

play26:22

don't know where it is right now what do

play26:24

you mean you don't know where it is well

play26:26

somebody cleaned it out and I need to

play26:28

get guitar back and there's a signed

play26:29

Alden cover as well so kind of like

play26:32

Jamie well we'll Farge around uh for

play26:36

that it's Bri or petza some one of these

play26:38

guys will know where it is all right

play26:40

well we'll put one of The Magicians on

play26:42

on the task somebody might be holding it

play26:44

for ransom but alternative Investments

play26:46

you've got to keep your eye on them

play26:47

there's no wallet for that I think uh so

play26:50

um I want to talk a little bit about

play26:52

another Trend that came up before I

play26:54

tackle a few more questions coming in

play26:56

here and that was long vity so this is

play26:59

super interesting this dropped today so

play27:01

I'm guessing that a lot of you hadn't

play27:02

had a CH haven't had a chance to watch

play27:04

it yet Jamie I know that you did because

play27:06

you guys were talking about it right as

play27:08

we came on air um but Ral this is an

play27:10

issue that comes up in in so many

play27:13

different places as people are looking

play27:14

into the future and I suppose it kind of

play27:17

falls into technology but this is really

play27:19

the sort of Flip or positive side or

play27:21

trying to find the opportunity in that

play27:23

aging demographic that you talked about

play27:25

I guess

play27:27

so the the motivations for people to be

play27:31

investors is exactly the same as the

play27:33

motivation for

play27:34

wellness it's your future vision of

play27:36

yourself they're identical they're very

play27:39

similar behavioral

play27:43

motivations and now we've got this Nexus

play27:45

where technology has met with this

play27:47

Wellness Trend and you've got this

play27:50

longevity stuff that's happening plus

play27:53

the ability to ATS scale cure disease uh

play27:58

Diagnostics preventative medicine things

play28:00

that didn't exist before and it's only

play28:02

going to accelerate with the use of

play28:04

AI and I had been talking to Peter de

play28:09

mandis about this in the past we had Tom

play28:11

Bilu talking about it in the past um

play28:14

I've been down this rabbit hole and

play28:16

Jamie and I were talking off camera he's

play28:17

going down the rabbit hole we all go

play28:19

down this rabbit hole because you know

play28:21

once you get a few gray hairs in your

play28:22

beard you start thinking oh my God I am

play28:25

now and Jamie just had a kid it's like

play28:27

oh now to need need to think about

play28:29

my longevity you've got the gray bits in

play28:31

your beard I can see and so um you do

play28:35

start thinking about it so I really

play28:37

wanted to speak so Peter deand said well

play28:39

I've started a whole set of you know

play28:41

Cutting Edge clinics called Fountain

play28:43

life so I'm like that's what I want to

play28:45

speak to so um Bill cap came on and

play28:50

talked to me about what they're doing

play28:52

the Diagnostics the preventative stuff

play28:55

and how advanced it is and how far

play28:57

behind your own doctor is or your

play29:00

average cardiologist or your you know

play29:03

average oncologist and all of this stuff

play29:06

and so it it was a really really

play29:09

interesting conversation and there's

play29:11

been several of these on real Vision as

play29:12

I've gone down that that kind of on um

play29:16

on the journey man I've kind of gone

play29:17

down this rabbit hole because I think

play29:19

it's an important one and one that I'm

play29:21

personally interested in and that's not

play29:24

assuming any of us are perfect Tom Bilo

play29:26

is perfect it's like he wears a glucose

play29:28

monitor at all points he doesn't eat

play29:30

anything he does you know he's so

play29:32

disciplined I'm not but you you try and

play29:36

head in the right direction most of the

play29:38

time uh and try not to it up and

play29:41

you know how to unfuck your future a

play29:43

very important part of it there's no

play29:45

point getting all your Investments right

play29:48

and being in bad Health yeah or being

play29:51

stressed out so um we've got a a day not

play29:56

to jump ahead but we have a day of

play29:58

workshops tomorrow we're going to close

play30:00

this thing out with a day of live

play30:02

workshops and I'm going to kick things

play30:04

off in the morning with the Nigerian

play30:06

brothers and Imron talking about how you

play30:07

can use options both to enhance returns

play30:09

and protect yourself something not

play30:11

enough of us do because they can be

play30:13

intimidating so those guys are going to

play30:14

break it down um and you are going to

play30:17

talk about retirement and Jared and one

play30:19

of the things that you both emphasize is

play30:21

uh the stress factor right it's not just

play30:24

a mathematical equation it's how to

play30:26

think about your retirement kind of

play30:28

holistically about what you want and

play30:30

it's interesting is you're going to talk

play30:32

to the people that are closer to

play30:33

retirement age and Jared Jamie is more

play30:36

your along your lines probably talking

play30:38

about people who are kind of planning

play30:40

further ahead in the future or

play30:42

Millennials who are looking at I there

play30:45

is no perfect answer it's actually much

play30:47

easier to answer the question for young

play30:48

people than it is for older people right

play30:50

because it becomes very specific to your

play30:52

experiences when you're young you have a

play30:55

lot of probabilistic future paths right

play30:57

so you set yourself in a decently good

play31:00

direction and a bit of luck will carry

play31:03

you the older you are you you're set

play31:06

you've got a set set of circumstances if

play31:08

you've retired it's what you've retired

play31:10

with if you're coming up to retirement

play31:12

it's like what is your earning power how

play31:14

much time do you have stuff like that so

play31:16

how I'm probably going to handle my

play31:18

panel is really questions yeah because I

play31:22

don't have a fixed answer because

play31:24

everybody's going to be different in

play31:25

mind well Jared if he's talking to a

play31:27

bunch of 25 year olds 30 year olds it's

play31:30

actually easier to answer doesn't mean

play31:33

there is a you know there's a definitive

play31:34

we're all going to be rich but it's a a

play31:37

way of thinking that's much easier

play31:38

mine's going to be more difficult so I

play31:40

think I want to do it on a case-by Case

play31:42

basis without trying to give investment

play31:43

advice but just give directional ways of

play31:47

thinking this through and making

play31:49

Intelligent Decisions because I've you

play31:50

know I've also seen a lot of my parents

play31:53

and parents friends make all the

play31:56

mistakes and I've seen of them get it

play31:58

all right and learning from others is

play32:00

you know it's very good you know I'm

play32:03

what's weird is I'm a

play32:04

very conservative person in terms of

play32:07

debt and other stuff but now I've become

play32:09

a risk taker because I've got the

play32:11

security to take risk because I saw what

play32:14

happened to and we talked about this in

play32:16

the past Maggie it's like I saw what

play32:17

happened to my parents friends or seeing

play32:21

parents friends I mean awful run out of

play32:23

money people have had great careers

play32:25

never really saved enough in their

play32:26

pensions and before know they run out of

play32:28

money at 80 years old yeah and they

play32:32

don't have anywhere to live stuff you

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know it's and if their kids that can't

play32:35

support them that kind of is is bad

play32:38

and I've seen it all so hopefully I can

play32:40

speak with some experience yeah and I

play32:42

think we're always looking for Solutions

play32:44

right so um a lot of people feel

play32:46

hopeless and we had some really amazing

play32:48

comments throughout the series just

play32:49

saying I was in a really dark place and

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I listen to this and you know

play32:54

information is power and so there is

play32:56

usually a way forward and so you you

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know we don't want anyone to feel like

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that and we want people to you know um

play33:03

come where others are sharing

play33:04

information and if they've found a way

play33:06

forward the community is fantastic about

play33:07

sharing that as well so really looking

play33:09

forward to that and Jamie you're going

play33:10

to do one all about crypto we got a lot

play33:12

of crypto questions in

play33:15

here yeah so this is my first um for the

play33:19

real Vision community so there'll be

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sort of a short presentation at the

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start maybe 15 minutes we'll walk

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through some of the basics uh just in

play33:26

terms of what a

play33:28

Monumental opportunity this represents

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um for those that people that can

play33:33

understand what's in front of them and

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this generational transition that we're

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seeing from Boomers to the younger the

play33:39

younger Generations what that means in

play33:41

terms of the wealth

play33:42

transfer money is going to flow into the

play33:44

pockets of Millennials through inherence

play33:47

through inheritance but also the change

play33:49

in behavior that that that's going to

play33:51

typify already we've got the data on

play33:53

this so this isn't really a leap of

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faith the data is there Millennials have

play33:57

spending pattern they have an investment

play33:59

patent they are the Next Generation that

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will take over from you know even people

play34:04

like me like I'm a gen AA um and so you

play34:08

know Boomers Gen X Millennials the

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cohorts after that they see World In a

play34:14

Different Light you have to you know to

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borrow from a technical analysis Trend

play34:18

you have you know the trend is your

play34:19

friend so really it's just a question of

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like how then do you frame it um how do

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you allocate to it what's the correct

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POS position size so we'll run through

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that um and hopefully answer some

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questions that's it's a fascinating

play34:34

thing to think about because even if

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you're not in that cohort they're going

play34:37

to be influencing things so so you've

play34:38

got to I mean this could be very

play34:40

different that everyone's got to think

play34:42

about for their Holdings R I never

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really thought about it that way before

play34:45

look we've seen it at scale in the

play34:48

underperformance of active versus

play34:51

passive what that is is the Battle of

play34:54

the generations because the Boomers

play34:58

active funds that was the way of

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investing in the

play35:01

past the kids their kids own passive and

play35:07

we've seen a switch that passive is now

play35:09

larger than active active portfolios

play35:12

underperform over the long run why

play35:14

because there's a Relentless sell from

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the Boomers as they release capital from

play35:20

their retirement assets and the

play35:22

Millennials are offsetting the flows but

play35:25

in different things which is kind of

play35:27

Jamie's talking about because what we're

play35:29

going to see is this also offsetting of

play35:31

flows in this new asset class so you're

play35:34

you're musling in this new asset class

play35:36

in the middle of this and don't forget

play35:38

there's 86 million Millennials in the

play35:40

United States alone it's actually larger

play35:42

than the baby boom cohort they just

play35:43

don't have as much money but in an asset

play35:46

class that's earlier the size of the

play35:50

flows is still enormous and then you've

play35:52

just given the Boomers a chance with a

play35:54

with the ETF so you know there's there's

play35:57

a lot going on and it is demographics is

play36:00

everything I realized this in the end

play36:02

almost almost everything that we do in

play36:05

in um markets is actually demographics

play36:08

driven we're just trying to overco

play36:10

complicate it

play36:11

all that we do uh Sim has a question

play36:16

that very keen to get answered so we

play36:17

will do so for you um Jamie I'll put

play36:20

this to you can we please add this to

play36:22

the question list how can 122 billion in

play36:24

ETF flows account for the1 trillion doll

play36:27

in Market C

play36:29

growth yeah that's a good question um so

play36:32

I mean like there's a multiplier effect

play36:35

and there's been so many attempts at

play36:37

quantifying it I personally you know

play36:40

don't spend too much time thinking about

play36:42

it because firstly you have to project

play36:45

what is the the flows which is hard

play36:47

enough I just know that there's going to

play36:48

be more and then there's the multiplier

play36:51

effects of what those flows mean to the

play36:53

to the eventual price what we do know is

play36:56

that you know Bitcoin is becoming

play36:58

scarcer and it has a disinflationary

play37:01

supply schedule that matched with the to

play37:04

totally new cohort of structural buyers

play37:07

mean price goes up over the long term of

play37:09

course there's going to be massive

play37:10

gations and bare markets so I mean you

play37:14

know I've seen multipliers um estimated

play37:17

from the likes of meril Lynch at you

play37:19

know levels of like 25 I don't think

play37:22

it's anywhere near that um I think it's

play37:24

sort of maybe below 10 then again we

play37:26

said I'm sort of you know speculating as

play37:28

well so there isn't a great answer for

play37:30

that Sim um you know there are people

play37:33

who have put a lot of math behind it I

play37:35

just feel you have to be structurally

play37:37

correct or direct directionally correct

play37:39

within a certain time frame um and I

play37:42

think that's um you know that puts those

play37:44

who are holding the asset or buying the

play37:46

asset in a good position and also it

play37:49

wasn't just the one billion uh the 10

play37:51

billion that drove it right because

play37:52

there was General flows from crypto out

play37:55

of stable coins and everything else so

play37:56

there was that so it's actually a

play37:58

complicated process but I think yeah

play37:59

Jam's answer is the right one is yes

play38:01

there is a

play38:03

multiplier what is it no idea so Scott

play38:06

Scott saying we need an nft of that

play38:08

guitar by the way um so uh Jude saying

play38:13

Jamie earlier you said approximately at

play38:15

the second we're approximately at the

play38:17

second half of the cycle because this

play38:18

cycle is different how long do you think

play38:21

things play out before it's time we

play38:23

always want someone ask Jam question

play38:27

question

play38:28

related to this is what kind of cycle do

play38:30

you think it's going to be because I've

play38:32

been trying to wrestle with the odds

play38:34

between a left translated short cycle

play38:36

regular cycle or something a bit more

play38:38

wild that's kind of part of this where

play38:42

you think we are in the cycle stuff when

play38:45

what what is your view can I give a non

play38:47

answer like I yeah there is no answer

play38:50

you know so there yeah yeah I think the

play38:52

way that you've thought about this R is

play38:54

the correct way it's a you know you can

play38:56

assign probabilities to to it and I

play38:58

think you've thought about it through

play39:00

the lens of like um probabilities

play39:02

assigned to a moderate cycle a

play39:05

disappointing one and to um to a better

play39:10

than expected or something that blows

play39:12

the you know blows the doors off look

play39:16

and I and I've come out with my own

play39:17

forecasts and that I know what that

play39:19

means that means that I'll be ridiculed

play39:22

and uh I don't need your forecast we

play39:24

don't need your forecast don't worry

play39:26

yeah I I do think that we get to around

play39:29

sort of 150,000 this cycle um I think

play39:32

that's and that's fairly moderate that's

play39:34

just looking at a Haring of the returns

play39:38

of the lows of the cycle to the peak and

play39:41

so I think we we do half as much as we

play39:44

did last last time and that sort of

play39:45

brings me to around about 150,000 and

play39:48

the ETF flows are sort of hopefully I

play39:51

think baking in that um you know that

play39:55

result um but I honestly don't know it

play39:58

could go either way um I think the swing

play40:01

here is to really watch the derivatives

play40:03

Market because that brought the last

play40:04

cycle undone um and you know I and

play40:08

that's just the way things go I've seen

play40:11

the problem I think people have with um

play40:13

forecasting is that they can look at the

play40:15

previous cycles and say well if this

play40:18

didn't happen then we would have done

play40:20

this therefore this is so the market is

play40:23

the market the end of the day the price

play40:25

is the final verdict so I just look at

play40:28

the last price and and not take out any

play40:31

of the any of the sort of events that

play40:33

happened during that cycle whether it

play40:34

was a China ban the liquidity cycle

play40:37

whatever it is look at it and think

play40:39

about actually what that means for

play40:41

future Cycles I do believe we get a

play40:42

moderation so I'm not in the camp of the

play40:46

250,000 but I'm with you Ral there's a

play40:48

probability that it

play40:50

will yeah it's the one that scares me is

play40:55

the short cycle we you know the kind

play40:57

slightly stunted I think that was the

play40:58

last cycle was like that I think we all

play41:00

have PTSD so we can deal with that one

play41:03

you know if they take away the punch

play41:04

bowl a bit early we can kind of deal

play41:05

with it because most people are sort of

play41:07

expecting it a relatively normal cycle I

play41:11

think people are fine with you know my

play41:13

fear is the 2013 Double

play41:17

pump that's

play41:20

terrifying because that was what a 45%

play41:23

correction mid bull market everybody

play41:26

thought it PE cuz it already done 10x or

play41:28

20x or 30 whatever the stupid number was

play41:32

and then it did like another 20x from

play41:34

that

play41:35

point it was a v wasn't it I mean it

play41:38

didn't even it didn't even bottom out it

play41:40

I mean it didn't even sort of Flatline

play41:42

out so it was wicked and that was a time

play41:45

when inflation like the the protocol

play41:47

inflation was extremely high right so

play41:50

that was first cycle um so that was

play41:52

sorry after the first harving so we

play41:55

still had I don't know what that meant

play41:56

in terms of inflation rate but it was

play41:58

like you know High single digits or

play42:00

maybe even double digits at that time

play42:02

yet it was able to do that kind of thing

play42:04

um but it was early so you know it was

play42:08

who know who knows that's the one that

play42:09

scares me the others we can kind of deal

play42:12

with well if it scares you it's probably

play42:14

going to scare everybody else is's just

play42:16

tiptoeing into this especially if

play42:17

they're holding it in their retirement

play42:19

so I'm going to close out just just it's

play42:21

not the volatility magg it's selling out

play42:22

too early well right it's

play42:25

making volatility up or down whether

play42:28

you're holding the gains is still it's

play42:29

like that's all the questions we get

play42:31

everyone's feeling it like it's that's

play42:32

why just don't sell anything it's much

play42:34

easier a small little feeling of Nvidia

play42:36

now on on like gone crazy right that's

play42:39

what that is because every question we

play42:40

get is should I take profits in Nvidia

play42:42

should I hold it should I what if I sold

play42:44

too early oh my God I sold too early so

play42:46

they need to ask that question tomorrow

play42:49

yeah of Imran and the and yes Pete John

play42:53

about selling calls against your Nvidia

play42:56

position or buying puts as a hedge

play42:59

against it you know they're not the only

play43:01

people I mean one of the largest asset

play43:04

managers who has a large ETF in the

play43:06

space was like what the hell do I do

play43:08

about Nvidia and the

play43:11

semiconductors everyone's thinking about

play43:12

it because yeah they know the trend is a

play43:15

good Trend they know it could turn into

play43:17

a bubble nobody really wants to sell the

play43:19

best performing equity in the

play43:21

world but it's scary yeah some of them

play43:25

did and and they're underperforming the

play43:26

market especially if they you know and

play43:28

that and that's been really painful by

play43:30

the way that's what options are great

play43:31

for three performance coaches we had on

play43:34

said all of their clients which are

play43:36

across the hedge fund and um fund

play43:38

managing money managing private Equity

play43:40

business and they're all ones in Europe

play43:42

ones you know Denise is in the US and um

play43:44

and Gio all said that a lot of people

play43:46

are hurting so many people have gotten

play43:48

it wrong they are behind so even season

play43:51

professionals this is this is very

play43:53

difficult so let's end quickly on on the

play43:55

sort of day of because this is the daily

play43:57

briefing we've got stocks rowning again

play43:59

the FED said they're going to ease three

play44:00

more times so Ral is this just um you

play44:04

know risk on again liquidity is coming

play44:08

my view hasn't changed I've been long

play44:10

risk since November

play44:13

2022 long crypto Long Tech and just

play44:18

haven't changed that and it's been

play44:21

stupidly good I just kind of left my

play44:23

brain behind and said look liquidity

play44:25

goes up over time over the business side

play44:27

these are the assets to own and it works

play44:30

incredibly you know we've got these Mega

play44:32

Trends just ride them everyone

play44:34

overthinks it over worry shortterm

play44:36

trades it meanwhile they're it's

play44:38

printing generational wealth not only in

play44:41

crypto but in Tech as well so just don't

play44:44

overthink it tomorrow will be more

play44:45

digital than

play44:47

today so therefore that's the secular

play44:50

Trend and the business cycle hav't we've

play44:53

only just bottomed in the ism or

play44:55

bottoming so we haven't got got anywhere

play44:57

so there's nothing to worry about of

play44:59

course you will have volatility and the

play45:02

other thing is you've got seasonality

play45:03

election years basically up only with

play45:06

you know one big wiggle somewhere in the

play45:08

summer generally I don't see anything to

play45:11

worry about you know unless

play45:14

the yeah I mean even if we go to war

play45:16

with somebody going to print more money

play45:18

then tries the price up I just don't

play45:20

have anything to worry

play45:22

about well Jamie we got to end it

play45:25

there before we find something to worry

play45:27

about we're gonna end it there thank you

play45:30

guys so much um awesome stuff and so if

play45:33

you've already registered for the

play45:34

workshops you're in um if you haven't

play45:37

you can watch them if you're plus and

play45:38

above if you are not there's a $1 offer

play45:41

on right now for 14 days jump on it you

play45:44

get a bunch more stuff and you can watch

play45:46

these workshops maybe somebody's going

play45:48

to ask the question you had on your mind

play45:49

check your emails there are instructions

play45:51

in your email box on what to do for all

play45:54

of this and we look forward to seeing

play45:55

you and the daily briefing is live from

play45:58

New York City tomorrow because we got

play45:59

some special stuff going on some special

play46:02

live guests joining us um so be sure to

play46:04

come for all of that fun thanks

play46:06

everybody take care and good luck out

play46:08

there thanks Ral thanks

play46:11

Jamie hi I'm Ralph pal on the 5th and

play46:14

6th of June 2024 I'll be speaking at the

play46:16

largest AI events in Asia super AI in

play46:19

Singapore at the iconic Marina Bay Sands

play46:22

alongside Brilliant Minds like Edward

play46:24

Snowden Benedict devans and bellagi arv

play46:27

on Sage exploring the extraordinary

play46:29

potential of AI and the profound change

play46:31

it represents not just for financial

play46:33

markets but also for the World As We

play46:35

Know It with over 5,000 attendees and

play46:38

over 150 side events Singapore will

play46:41

become a vibrant AI hub for a full week

play46:43

from the 3rd to the 9th of June so visit

play46:46

realvision

play46:48

docomo to register and join me with 20%

play46:51

off tickets with the code real Vision

play46:53

the links's in the

play46:55

description

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