#999 - How Can You Profit From This Next Cycle? | With Raoul Pal and Jamie Coutts
Summary
TLDRRaoul Pal, alongside influential speakers like Edward Snowden and Benedict Devans, will discuss the transformative potential of AI at the Super AI event in Singapore, June 3-9, 2024. With 5,000 attendees and 150 side events, the conference will explore AI's impact on financial markets and the world. Register for a 20% discount with the code 'Real Vision' at realvision.com.
Takeaways
- 📅 Ral will be speaking at the Super AI event in Singapore on June 5th and 6th, 2024, discussing the transformative potential of AI.
- 🤖 The Super AI event will gather over 5,000 attendees and feature more than 150 side events, making Singapore a hub for AI innovation.
- 🌐 Prominent speakers like Edward Snowden and Benedict Devans will also be in attendance, sharing insights on AI's impact on the world.
- 🎉 The event is expected to be a vibrant gathering that explores AI's influence on financial markets and the broader global landscape.
- 💡 Ral emphasizes the importance of understanding the challenges and opportunities presented by AI, particularly in the context of financial markets.
- 🚀 Ral has been a long-time advocate for cryptocurrencies, seeing them as a fast asset in a debt-driven cycle.
- 🔗 The conversation between Ral and Jamie Cotts, Real Vision's chief crypto analyst, highlights the growing interest and investment in the crypto space.
- 🌐 The discussion touches on the role of technology, particularly blockchain, in the ongoing revolution and its accessibility for investment.
- 💭 Ral expresses concerns about the difficulty of generating value in the AI space due to the dominance of entities like Open AI.
- 🔄 The conversation also explores the potential for market cycles and the impact of ETFs on the crypto market, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- 📈 Ral and Jamie provide insights into the future of investments, retirement planning, and the importance of adapting to the changing landscape of finance and technology.
Q & A
What is the significance of the AI event 'Super AI' taking place in Singapore in June 2024?
-The 'Super AI' event is the largest AI event in Asia, showcasing the extraordinary potential of AI and its profound impact on financial markets and the world. It will gather over 5,000 attendees and feature more than 150 side events, making Singapore a vibrant AI hub for the week.
Who are some of the notable speakers at the 'Super AI' event?
-The event will feature brilliant minds such as Edward Snowden, Benedict Devans, and Bellagi Aravind, among others, discussing various aspects of AI's influence and potential.
How can one register for the 'Super AI' event with a discount?
-To register for the event with a 20% discount, one can visit the Real Vision website and use the promo code 'Real Vision'.
What is the main topic of discussion in the Real Vision Deli briefing with R pal and Jamie Coots?
-The main topic of discussion is the exploration of the retirement crisis, the role of financial markets as problem solvers, and the significant macro opportunity presented by cryptocurrencies.
What is R pal's stance on the correlation between debt cycles and the performance of cryptocurrencies?
-R pal believes that if everything is correlated and driven by the same debt cycle, it's beneficial to back the fastest asset, which he identifies as cryptocurrencies, particularly since their introduction in 2014.
How does R pal view the current state of AI investments?
-R pal thinks that investing in AI is challenging because there isn't a pure AI company to trade. He suggests that most investable options are tied to other aspects like semiconductors, and he questions the bubble-like nature of the AI sector.
What is the impact of Open AI on the investment returns in AI according to R pal?
-R pal believes that Open AI, with its significant resources and use of AGI, disrupts the market so effectively that it's very difficult for new startups and VC investments in AI to generate returns, as they often get outcompeted or destroyed by Open AI.
What is the significance of the Bitcoin ETF launch according to Jamie Coots?
-Jamie Coots views the Bitcoin ETF launch as a significant development that has made crypto more accessible and is expected to bring a steady influx of investments into the market over many years.
How does Jamie Coots perceive the role of the SEC in the growth of the cryptocurrency market?
-Jamie Coots finds the SEC's stance on Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies confusing and believes it's an institution that is trying to slow down the rapid growth of crypto to protect vested interests, rather than outright stopping it.
What is R pal's outlook on the future of AI applications and businesses?
-R pal envisions a complex future where AI's ability to create applications itself challenges the traditional business model. He predicts a world beyond 2030 where many truths we hold to be self-evident will no longer apply, and societies will need to figure out how to operate in this new environment.
Outlines
📅 Upcoming AI Event in Singapore
Ra'pal announces his participation in the largest AI event in Asia, Super AI, scheduled for June 5th and 6th, 2024, in Singapore. He will be joining other brilliant minds like Edward Snowden, Benedict Devans, and Bellagi Arvon Sage to discuss the extraordinary potential of AI and its profound impact on financial markets and the world. The event expects over 5,000 attendees and more than 150 side events, making Singapore an AI hub from June 3rd to June 9th. Ra'pal encourages registration through Real Vision with a 20% discount using the code 'Real Vision'.
🤖 AI and the Future of Technology
The conversation delves into the future of AI and technology, with Ra'pal and Jamie Coots, Real Vision's co-founder and chief crypto analyst, discussing the retirement crisis and the optimistic outlook despite big challenges. Ra'pal highlights the agreement on problems like debt, aging populations, and central bank interventions but uncertainty on solutions. He emphasizes the role of financial markets as problem solvers and the potential of crypto as the fastest asset. Jamie brings up the technology revolution, including blockchain, and the challenges of investing in AI due to the lack of pure AI companies. They discuss the impact of public market activities and the potential of private market investments in AI.
💡 Insights on Crypto and Market Cycles
Jamie and Ra'pal discuss the recent Bitcoin ETF success and its implications for the crypto market. Jamie notes the surprise at the ETF's rapid growth and anticipates a slow, steady influx of funds into the market. Ra'pal expresses skepticism about the SEC's stance on Ethereum and sees it as an attempt to slow down the crypto transition. They discuss the potential for institutional investment in crypto and the impact on market cycles, with Ra'pal suggesting a 'trojan horse' effect of ETFs to introduce people to crypto. Jamie also mentions the possibility of sovereign-level accumulation of Bitcoin.
📈 Market Analysis and Investor Behavior
The discussion continues with market analysis, focusing on the potential for a market correction and investor behavior. Ra'pal and Jamie consider the impact of ETF flows on market growth and the multiplier effect. They debate the potential length and nature of the current market cycle, with Ra'pal forecasting a moderate cycle and Jamie emphasizing the importance of derivatives markets. They also touch on the generational wealth transfer and its influence on market trends, with Ra'pal advocating for a long-term, less volatile approach to investing.
💡 Retirement Planning and Longevity
The conversation shifts to retirement planning and the longevity trend. Ra'pal and Jamie discuss the importance of considering wellness and technology in preparing for the future, with Ra'pal mentioning the Fountain Life clinics and the advancements in diagnostics and preventative medicine. They emphasize the need to think holistically about retirement and to make intelligent decisions based on individual circumstances. Jamie also talks about his upcoming workshop on crypto, focusing on the generational transition and wealth transfer to Millennials.
🌐 Final Thoughts and Upcoming Workshops
Ra'pal and Jamie conclude the discussion with final thoughts on market trends and the upcoming workshops. Ra'pal reiterates his positive outlook on risk and technology, while Jamie addresses the concern of selling too early in a strong market trend. They encourage viewers to attend the workshops for more insights and to register for the Super AI event in Singapore. The conversation ends with a reminder of the $1 offer for 14 days of access to more content and workshops.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡AI
💡Cryptocurrency
💡Retirement Crisis
💡Demographic Shifts
💡Blockchain
💡ETF
💡Longevity
💡Technology Revolution
💡Investment Strategies
💡Market Volatility
Highlights
Raoul Pal will be speaking at the largest AI event in Asia, Super AI, in Singapore.
The event will take place from June 5th to 6th, 2024, at the iconic Marina Bay Sands.
Brilliant minds like Edward Snowden, Benedict Devans, and Bellagi Aravind will also be in attendance.
The event will explore the extraordinary potential of AI and its profound impact on financial markets and the world.
There will be over 5,000 attendees and more than 150 side events, making Singapore an AI hub from June 3rd to 9th.
Visitors can register with a 20% discount using the code 'Real Vision' at the Real Vision Docomo website.
The Real Vision Deliberating briefing features Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal and chief crypto analyst Jamie Coots.
The discussion revolves around the retirement crisis, the challenges it poses, and the optimistic outlook despite the difficulties.
There is a general agreement on the problems caused by debt, aging populations, and central bank interventions.
Financial markets are seen as problem solvers, with people looking for different ways to tackle issues, such as the use of gold and cryptocurrencies.
Cryptocurrencies are considered the fastest asset, with Pal advocating for them since 2014 on Real Vision.
The conversation also touches on the technology revolution, with blockchain being a significant part of it.
AI is a recurring theme, with discussions on how to invest in it and the challenges of the current market.
The panelists express concerns about the future, especially with the rapid advancements in AI and its implications on businesses and society.
The conversation also includes a discussion on the recent Bitcoin ETF success and its impact on the crypto market.
Jamie Coots shares his insights on the crypto market's reaction to the ETF and the potential for future growth.
The panelists agree that the market is still in its early stages, with more institutional involvement expected over time.
The discussion concludes with thoughts on the potential for a more substantial crypto market correction and the unique dynamics of this cycle.
Transcripts
hi I'm Ral pal on the 5th and 6th of
June 2024 I'll be speaking of the
largest AI events in Asia super AI in
Singapore at the iconic Marina Bay Sand
alongside brilliant mins like Edward
Snowden Benedict devans and bellari are
on Sage exploring the extraordinary
potential of AI and the profound change
it represents not just for financial
markets but also for the World As We
Know It with over 5,000 attendees and
over 150 side events Singapore will
become a vibrant AI hub for a full week
from the 3rd to the 9th of June so visit
realvision
docomo to register and join me with 20%
off tickets with the code real Vision
the links in the
[Music]
description how can you profit from this
next cycle hi everyone Welcome to the
Real Vision Deli briefing I'm Maggie
Lake and with me today is real Vision
co-founder R pal and Jamie Coots our
chief crypto analyst hello gentlemen
double
trouble he Magie double Jamie's like I'm
not even signing on to that he's like hi
you're right it's always Double Trouble
When R's here and our opening question
listen it's just a nice way of saying
how do we not F this up right and that
is the question that we've been asking
all week and really looking at for the
past two weeks in this special series
we've been doing and Ral you kicked it
off with some pretty Stark warnings
about the retirement crisis that we're
all facing um but it's not all doom and
gloom and throughout the conversations I
was really struck by even in the first
week the fact that there was optimism
punching through even though we were
talking about some of these really big
challenges um and and some of it was
sort of contrary uh you know that on the
one hand it's really bad but here's how
I here's the sort of optimistic thing
I'm thinking about I'm just wondering
how you're feeling as we wrap up this
two we
campaign I think people have been aware
for a long time now that everybody's
pretty and the world is kind of
rigged against you unless you have all
the
assets and so people get that so I think
a lot of people have been thinking
through it I think what's interesting is
most people agree what's gone wrong
people aren't sure how it went wrong you
know I'm demographics biased other
people are whatever um but they kind of
all roughly agree with the problems
itself debt aging
populations excess intervention by
central banks to try and solve these
problems all of these things government
interventions in that whole in the whole
thing but people have you know financial
markets are problem solvers by core so
they're always looking for different
ways and you know a bunch of people
would say and have been saying for a
long time gold is the answer and gold
has done okay in this environment you
know it's protected Global purchasing
power hasn't done hasn't created wealth
but it's kind of protect it you know
other people look at other ways of doing
it um you know and
I got to the conclusion that if
everything is correlated and driven by
this same debt cycle then you just want
to back the fastest asset and by a long
way it's crypto which I you know I keep
pounding the table have done since 2014
on realvision that this is the biggest
macro opportunity of all time since the
first time I talked about Bitcoin on
real Vision it's up 450,000
per. I mean it sounds it sounds makeb
believe when you say that number bananas
right this is a bananas world we live in
and it's a
gift it is so I'm gonna take a step back
and say one of the two themes that came
up yes crypto is a part of it and we
know you feel strongly about that
Jamie's looking into it and Jamie just
said before we came on um and we had
some folks listening in welcome to all
you nft holders um that you know when I
looked at equities so all everyone has a
foot in macro still has a foot in macro
started out in macro before they went
down into crypto or got on that
bandwagon but at the core it's really
technology right and that's the other
big theme that came through um in this
series is is sort of the technology
Revolution that we're facing and
blockchain is a part of that um the the
issue and we're going to get into that a
little bit and Jamie I'm interested to
hear your thoughts has always been
access to that right where as rest of us
can feel and use an access technology
and invest more easily in technology the
CIS crypto part of it has been a little
bit more challenging although that may
be changing so so let's let's talk about
those two buckets and I'm going to start
with technology first Ral and one of the
things that comes up again and again is
AI and we had a great conversation
between Jordy and Beth in fact
somebody's like who's the genius that
those put those two together and behind
the scenes we're all like who's that we
think it might have been ral's idea damn
you we think it was your idea but it was
a great conversation um and really
talking about what that's doing and ways
to invest in that um and this is
something that you've been looking at a
long time you've talked to both of them
before in the past does it feel bubbly
to you does it feel like we're in the
early Innings how are you thinking about
AI there's not even an AI company to
trade
we're trading so I don't know how it's a
bubble I mean yeah you can trade
Microsoft but it comes with a bunch of
other stuff Nvidia okay it's a chipmaker
yes it's creating AI software and other
stuff that's the closest we've got so
it's not like there's a bunch of you
know it's not like 2,000 where every
tech company goes up we just don't have
that so I'm not sure how investable it
really is outside of the semiconductors
which I've been long of for a year for
pro macro um and also in the exponential
and they've done incredibly well and
they continue to go well because there
was a panic to buy
computes but what was really interesting
is Elon Musk was talking earlier in the
week um about okay there's a panic to
buy compute now most people have put in
the sort of orders they need to put in
so going forwards nvidia's growth may
slow whether it's next year or the year
after and it will inevitably slow right
this is like a pandemic Panic into into
purchasing stuff um but he's like well
the next thing is you need Transformers
to step power down from power plants to
chips and it's like we don't have enough
in the world he was speaking at Bosch
the German electronics company and said
you guys need to make more of this stuff
we're about to run out of the ability to
generate enough power to generate all of
this stuff and then he's saying and then
we got a problem with electricity we're
just not ready for the amount of power
we need for this compute so this story
is going to keep unfolding and we really
have only just started yeah one of the
interesting things Beth said was in this
cycle I thought this was such an
interesting comment that a lot of what's
Happening will see if it continues is
happening in publicly traded companies
whereas previously now not not to say
there's not a boatload of money being
invested in the private Market chasing
this but there is a lot of activity in
the public Market as these companies
move into that business that wasn't
always the case in other Cycles I was so
interesting so think what's happening
here I'm not sure that
VC in AI is even going to generate any
returns and the reason being is by the
time you raise the capital launch your
product open AI has destroyed it I
actually personally believe that open AI
is building AI using AGI or something
close to AGI so they're using there's no
way 500 people can generate this much
disruption across this many business
lines in this speed right so I think
they're doing a different process than
anybody else so every time there's a
bunch of new startups come along open AI
just basically destroys them so I think
it's very very very difficult to
generate value in this space unless you
have all the compute so there's a few
companies the French one mistr um you
know I'm not even sure how mad's
stability AI um will do and I think it's
really really hard to compete in this
it's really hard to compete you need
Deep Pockets you need that power
eventually as you mentioned you're going
to need the energy um it's it's it's
different than what we've seen before J
because the applications layer don't
forget Within by the time GPT 5 comes
out they'll have um samon was talking
about this they'll have
multi-agents which means that you can
ask it to build a website that does X
blah blah blah and it'll just do it all
so how do you build businesses on the
applications layer when the AI itself
can create the applications layer in 10
minutes and then you get into the
problem in the future is let's
say somebody developed something amazing
and it's really cool it's getting
traction so you go to the AGI and say I
want to replicate this product but with
stronger behavioral incentives and I
want to skew it towards the larger
audience of India go it'll build it in
10
minutes so then how do you build
companies and I talked about this in my
piece is like Beyond 2030 this becomes a
very very very complicated world because
a lot of what we understand to be true
will not be true any
longer yeah which is a daunting thing to
think about and and this is also why we
kind of kicked off the series close to
the top of a geopolitical conversation
with D Smith and Jacob because you're
talking about how to Bild businesses how
do you how do you create a business in
that environment we got to figure out
how we op you know operate as Societies
in that environment and it's going to be
messy as we make that transition um
Jamie I want to bring you in though um
let's talk a little bit about what's
happening in crypto so of course that is
the other big sort of opportunity set
people are talking about and we now have
a situation where we have this Bitcoin
ETF so
theoretically uh it is a little bit more
accessible to people some of the barrier
perhaps has been taken down we know that
there's been headlines around how
successful how quickly it's grown the
most successful ETF launch ever if you
just look at the speed in which it it
generated inflows how are you thinking
about the crypto Market in the wake of
that what what are you seeing and what
are you
hearing yeah well I mean the success of
the ETF products um I think it's taken
most people by surprise we're seeing
just in the last week or the last couple
of days we're seeing some outflows so
we're starting to see that first that
first pullback really from the um from
what we saw from the outset but really
we are still very very early in this
game there are a lot of platforms that
have not yet signed up or opened up to
the to the ETFs so I think this will be
you know a drip feed into the market
over you know many many years um but
Bitcoin is still going to be subject and
crypto is still going to be subject to
the same cycles that we've seen before
um so the the real big question now in
regards to the ETF
is what about ethereum and so obviously
we've got an SEC that is still outwardly
against the idea of an ethereum ETF
which is just bananas when you think
about it like they've approved an
ethereum Futures ETF um so they I mean
if that's the case then they what
they've done is effectively illegal by
approving that product in the first
place um you've got all of the emails
that came out from the previous chairman
which clearly stated that amongst all
the SEC officials at that time they
didn't believe that ethereum was the
security so it's just it's confusing to
the market and I think this is really
just the last gasping breaths of a
system or a
institution that is beholden to certain
interests that are not aligned with the
future not aligned with the you know the
the the productivity and The Innovation
that's required to dig the country and
to dig every nation state out of the
hole that's been created over the last
you know multi-decade period and so I
think we're starting to see you know one
of the best indicators for the change in
sentiment that we're seeing globally is
really what's happening just in the US
presidential election cycle this time
around like in 2020 ra do you remember
anyone suggesting without being laughed
out of the room that it would become a
presidential issue or a policy platform
of any of the presidential candidates it
was like it was not even remotely on the
radar now you've got candidates from all
sides of politics actually promoting the
concepts of you know monetary
sovereignty and the need for you know a
Digital hard asset and neutral um
neutral currency like Bitcoin but it's
extending to also the cryptocurrency
space as well so I just think it's you
know what we're seeing is just the last
gasps of you know one of my views on
this Jamie is
that everybody knows how messy the
system is I think the central Bankers
are not stupid everybody knows and they
know what they're doing they're debasing
currency to try to not this let the
system blow up because all of the
savings are with the retirees and it's
you know it's a big mess so their one
job is to not allow the migration into
cryptoland to happen too fast I don't
think they're going to stop it
I don't think they even probably want to
stop it I don't think the the banks want
to stop it I don't think anybody wants
to stop it but I think their real job is
to slow it down what they don't want
is is Bitcoin as a deemed to be a
currency you know a world currency as an
asset as a store of value knock your
socks off as as an investment no problem
you want to build on top of the
technology no problem just don't think
of it as a world currency because that
threatens the overall system but that's
I kind of I just think of them as
throttling it so even you know I think
all of us are laughing at the SEC trying
to Now call Ether security I think it's
just a delay tactic as ever just slow it
down it could very well be but I also
think about it this way it's the it's
the Dynamics of a messy democratic
system where you've got vested interests
and I think some vested interests do
want to stop it
but what it ends up being is this sort
of they just basically putting the
brakes on the slowing it down as you
said because there's now multiple
factions involved and that creates the
market for the prices and but also
creates the market for the memes and
everything else that come to regulations
so you know it's it's um it feels
frustrating one thing that makes me
laugh Jamie is the more that they try
and constrict it or slow it down
whatever right the more the space gets
ridiculous the more the memes come the
more the middle finger comes up the more
the the space reacts
to that kind of pressure it makes me
laugh how how much people don't care
about what the old system says
anymore yeah I don't think they fully
understand what they're messing with
right you you guys you you find it um by
the way there was like for one H second
almost a meme coin of Ralph if I'm not
mistaken um which was hilarious this
week but um but you find it funny and
entertaining and a sort of you know F
you to the man to the government or to
The Regulators other people see this as
sort of cassino like volatility that
scares them when they're trying to think
about whether they should go into this
or put this in their portfolio or try to
figure out how to go through the Hoops
to to to to do that um Melvin asked
we've seen massive Bitcoin ETF inflows
will we see massive outflows when we
reach the end of macro summer beginning
fall or will the institutions behave
differently this time Jamie first of all
is this being driven by institutions um
Jim biano made the argument that this is
still cuq on steroids this is weak
retail hands he feels like and people
who are looking for the early gain he
doesn't feel like there's a lot of
institutional muscle in this yet but but
either of you can disagree with that um
but you know how how should we think
about this volatility and R I know
you're always warning that this is an
alien asset still and it's young and
this is part of what you buy into when
you go there but if we're talking about
crypto as a possible way to build wealth
in the next 10 years before none of us
can see the future anymore you know that
that matters to some people especially
depending on your risk profile Jamie you
first and then
Ral okay so the market structures
definitely change it changes every
single cycle there's a new cohort comes
in so there is institutions involved in
this cycle you can see it in the median
transaction value of Bitcoin transfers
so it reached a you know a disastrously
low um median price of transfer level
around seven or eight months ago it was
just it was around $10 now that's gone
up to 300 it's just one measure I mean
the price has gone up as well so you
have to sort of disentangle that but
definitely transfer value values and the
onchain data is clear some of the buyers
of the ETFs are institutions Black Rock
and Fidelity themselves are allocating
some of their other ETFs their
multi-asset ETFs into this product which
was always the long-term game plan and
so I think a lot of Institutions are
doing the same thing they're thinking
about as the new asset class I certainly
think that is the case digital assets in
a hole and I would you know bucket that
Bitcoin and everything else but some of
the allocations are going into long-term
multi-asset type portfolios which will
have a they'll have an impact a very
differing impact on the Cycles because
the way that they treat those
allocations the way they rebalance uh
based on performance will change
potentially smooth some of the
volatility over the long term but
there's still retail there there's still
the same sort of um you know you know
fomo activity that we've seen in
previous Cycles but I don't think you
can you can say that this is the same as
every other cycle it's it's
changed well
also the raas do the same kind of thing
is like they
just often will say to their clients
we'll put 1% of your portfolio and the
discretionary stuff so that
changes I think they all are aware how
volatile this is It's been sold to them
as a volatile asset and there a
long-term thing my guess is there's more
long-term holders later you'll get the
fomo retail of everybody trying to do
this but right now this is a lot of
people like bitwise Fidelity Franklin
everybody going to their client base
talking them through it explaining it
you know this is more thoughtful
allocation the other thing that people
haven't realized is you can now put it
in your
401k so the average Millennial who's a
buyer of the NASDAQ or the S&P 500
passive index products will buy this and
they
every two weeks with a paycheck and so
we will see a difference in the
structure of flows as Jamie is alluding
to it's just going to change probably
means it's less volatile on the down
cycle it also could cause a full bubble
on the Up Cycle this time around because
you've got numerous new participants who
could enter and you know this is a
limited Supply asset and 80% of it
hoarded so it can get pretty tricky so I
don't know how how it plays out but I
don't agree with Jim biano um I know a
lot of purists don't like it because
it's an ETF and not people opening
wallets and self- custody I actually
think of it as a trojan horse where
we're actually teaching people about
this product before you know it they
understand why they're buying it and
they come into cryptand um
so I think I think it's relatively good
quality holders also Hunter horley
hinted that um I think it's on the
quarterly statements you'll see who the
big holders of the ETFs are and he
hinted that you'll be surprised who's on
the list bitwise right Hunter bitwise
yeah yeah um
interesting yeah I've got this sne
suspicion too Maggie that um we've
already started to see accumulation by
institutions at a sovereign level
whether that's Sovereign wealth funds
the pensions potentially nation states
you've got mining operations now in
several countries around the world where
the countries themselves have
co-invested with private mining
companies so and these These are
countries that are sort of typically
energy rich um and are significant
players within that you know within the
energy markets and I think they see the
world very differently to you know
Europe or the United States or Western
countries I don't think we'll see any
major announcements in the short term I
just think that you know my working
hypothesis is that they're accumulating
they've got access to virgin Bitcoin
through the mining operations if they
foresee a world in which Bitcoin does
become significant they can avoid one of
the major steps in in disclosing and
showing their cards by going to a black
rock going to a coinbase to acquire
coins they have access to Virgin coins
domestically so it's just um you know
it's another sign for me that you know
the game has
changed fascinating stuff um and Pluto
five I think that answers your question
slimy Tom love these handles uh slimy
Tom asks we had a mild for crypto
correction do either of you think we
will face a more substantial draw down
along the lines of the usual prehab 30
plus
percent
um doesn't fa so I mean we did I sold
did what
23% maybe it makes a new low could be an
ABC correction or it just forms another
little wedge pattern I really have a
strong view but you should just expect
30% as normal course of business
and if you get away with less than that
great I don't know Jamie you got a
view not really I mean this you know I
think pomp said on TV a couple of days
ago this is a pullback for an this is a
Bitcoin pullback for ants I mean like
it's not even 30% we we should expect 30
to 40% pullbacks in a bull market where
we've seen
150% uh appreciation in just the last 12
months so it's been a little bit unus
usual and that's really the structural
buyer of the ETFs that's smooth things
out um I follow the derivatives markets
really closely um perhaps more closely
than I should given I just got Scar isue
from the last cycle because that was
really what brought the markets um you
know undone eventually in Bitcoin I
still think they're going to play a
major role I'm watching it like just for
for the earli signs that we bu we're
starting to see the buildup of
concerning leverage and um sort of
behavior that is top you know is toppy
in nature um and you know you still see
very high open interest but the funding
rates have come down now the funding
rates still elevated so we do need a
reset we need some of the open interest
to go away we need um funding rates to
get somewhere back to neutral um but it
could be very well be that they stay a
little bit more elevated because we've
got the perception ETFs are there
they're buying every day at 3 to five
times the supply
I'm fine I can take this leverage and
that sort of builds in you know risks
over the long term but to your point
Maggie like yeah we could pull back a
little bit further but I think um you
know we're sort of at the halfway point
of the cycle I mean some of the I would
just put this a little point in as well
there are some indicators onchain
indicators which are in the top end of
the valuation ranges based on previous
history so if you look at the pure
multiple which looks at the the fee
revenue from miners uh over the last 365
days and where that tends to PE that's
very high that's very elevated that's
been a very strong indicator of of
Bitcoin tops but the difference is that
you know inscriptions are only about a
year old so that is a new form of demand
for Block space which you know every
cycle is different so it's changing
things a little bit but we you know
we've got some you've got some onchain
signs that we're definitely in the sort
of second half of this this bull
market fantastic stuff the fact that
you're so deeply looking derivatives um
boggles my mind but makes me thrilled
that you're our chief crypto strategist
Jamie thank you for that uh question
slightly off topic Jamie please tell us
about the Clapton guitar behind you I
know it's off topic but it is a Clapton
right yeah it's it's a signed Eric
Clapton Fender um I can't play I just
love music I picked this up at an
auction years ago it's probably the only
thing I've ever bid on in an auction it
wasn't as much as what people might
think so hopefully it's worth a lot more
even if it even if it is I'm not selling
it um but yeah I think it's it's got one
of his signed albums as well so it's so
it's quite funny because I like Jamie
love music I like Jamie cannot play
guitar I have assigned David Bowie
Bender Strat that was in the office in
the real Vision office in New York I
don't know where it is right now what do
you mean you don't know where it is well
somebody cleaned it out and I need to
get guitar back and there's a signed
Alden cover as well so kind of like
Jamie well we'll Farge around uh for
that it's Bri or petza some one of these
guys will know where it is all right
well we'll put one of The Magicians on
on the task somebody might be holding it
for ransom but alternative Investments
you've got to keep your eye on them
there's no wallet for that I think uh so
um I want to talk a little bit about
another Trend that came up before I
tackle a few more questions coming in
here and that was long vity so this is
super interesting this dropped today so
I'm guessing that a lot of you hadn't
had a CH haven't had a chance to watch
it yet Jamie I know that you did because
you guys were talking about it right as
we came on air um but Ral this is an
issue that comes up in in so many
different places as people are looking
into the future and I suppose it kind of
falls into technology but this is really
the sort of Flip or positive side or
trying to find the opportunity in that
aging demographic that you talked about
I guess
so the the motivations for people to be
investors is exactly the same as the
motivation for
wellness it's your future vision of
yourself they're identical they're very
similar behavioral
motivations and now we've got this Nexus
where technology has met with this
Wellness Trend and you've got this
longevity stuff that's happening plus
the ability to ATS scale cure disease uh
Diagnostics preventative medicine things
that didn't exist before and it's only
going to accelerate with the use of
AI and I had been talking to Peter de
mandis about this in the past we had Tom
Bilu talking about it in the past um
I've been down this rabbit hole and
Jamie and I were talking off camera he's
going down the rabbit hole we all go
down this rabbit hole because you know
once you get a few gray hairs in your
beard you start thinking oh my God I am
now and Jamie just had a kid it's like
oh now to need need to think about
my longevity you've got the gray bits in
your beard I can see and so um you do
start thinking about it so I really
wanted to speak so Peter deand said well
I've started a whole set of you know
Cutting Edge clinics called Fountain
life so I'm like that's what I want to
speak to so um Bill cap came on and
talked to me about what they're doing
the Diagnostics the preventative stuff
and how advanced it is and how far
behind your own doctor is or your
average cardiologist or your you know
average oncologist and all of this stuff
and so it it was a really really
interesting conversation and there's
been several of these on real Vision as
I've gone down that that kind of on um
on the journey man I've kind of gone
down this rabbit hole because I think
it's an important one and one that I'm
personally interested in and that's not
assuming any of us are perfect Tom Bilo
is perfect it's like he wears a glucose
monitor at all points he doesn't eat
anything he does you know he's so
disciplined I'm not but you you try and
head in the right direction most of the
time uh and try not to it up and
you know how to unfuck your future a
very important part of it there's no
point getting all your Investments right
and being in bad Health yeah or being
stressed out so um we've got a a day not
to jump ahead but we have a day of
workshops tomorrow we're going to close
this thing out with a day of live
workshops and I'm going to kick things
off in the morning with the Nigerian
brothers and Imron talking about how you
can use options both to enhance returns
and protect yourself something not
enough of us do because they can be
intimidating so those guys are going to
break it down um and you are going to
talk about retirement and Jared and one
of the things that you both emphasize is
uh the stress factor right it's not just
a mathematical equation it's how to
think about your retirement kind of
holistically about what you want and
it's interesting is you're going to talk
to the people that are closer to
retirement age and Jared Jamie is more
your along your lines probably talking
about people who are kind of planning
further ahead in the future or
Millennials who are looking at I there
is no perfect answer it's actually much
easier to answer the question for young
people than it is for older people right
because it becomes very specific to your
experiences when you're young you have a
lot of probabilistic future paths right
so you set yourself in a decently good
direction and a bit of luck will carry
you the older you are you you're set
you've got a set set of circumstances if
you've retired it's what you've retired
with if you're coming up to retirement
it's like what is your earning power how
much time do you have stuff like that so
how I'm probably going to handle my
panel is really questions yeah because I
don't have a fixed answer because
everybody's going to be different in
mind well Jared if he's talking to a
bunch of 25 year olds 30 year olds it's
actually easier to answer doesn't mean
there is a you know there's a definitive
we're all going to be rich but it's a a
way of thinking that's much easier
mine's going to be more difficult so I
think I want to do it on a case-by Case
basis without trying to give investment
advice but just give directional ways of
thinking this through and making
Intelligent Decisions because I've you
know I've also seen a lot of my parents
and parents friends make all the
mistakes and I've seen of them get it
all right and learning from others is
you know it's very good you know I'm
what's weird is I'm a
very conservative person in terms of
debt and other stuff but now I've become
a risk taker because I've got the
security to take risk because I saw what
happened to and we talked about this in
the past Maggie it's like I saw what
happened to my parents friends or seeing
parents friends I mean awful run out of
money people have had great careers
never really saved enough in their
pensions and before know they run out of
money at 80 years old yeah and they
don't have anywhere to live stuff you
know it's and if their kids that can't
support them that kind of is is bad
and I've seen it all so hopefully I can
speak with some experience yeah and I
think we're always looking for Solutions
right so um a lot of people feel
hopeless and we had some really amazing
comments throughout the series just
saying I was in a really dark place and
I listen to this and you know
information is power and so there is
usually a way forward and so you you
know we don't want anyone to feel like
that and we want people to you know um
come where others are sharing
information and if they've found a way
forward the community is fantastic about
sharing that as well so really looking
forward to that and Jamie you're going
to do one all about crypto we got a lot
of crypto questions in
here yeah so this is my first um for the
real Vision community so there'll be
sort of a short presentation at the
start maybe 15 minutes we'll walk
through some of the basics uh just in
terms of what a
Monumental opportunity this represents
um for those that people that can
understand what's in front of them and
this generational transition that we're
seeing from Boomers to the younger the
younger Generations what that means in
terms of the wealth
transfer money is going to flow into the
pockets of Millennials through inherence
through inheritance but also the change
in behavior that that that's going to
typify already we've got the data on
this so this isn't really a leap of
faith the data is there Millennials have
spending pattern they have an investment
patent they are the Next Generation that
will take over from you know even people
like me like I'm a gen AA um and so you
know Boomers Gen X Millennials the
cohorts after that they see World In a
Different Light you have to you know to
borrow from a technical analysis Trend
you have you know the trend is your
friend so really it's just a question of
like how then do you frame it um how do
you allocate to it what's the correct
POS position size so we'll run through
that um and hopefully answer some
questions that's it's a fascinating
thing to think about because even if
you're not in that cohort they're going
to be influencing things so so you've
got to I mean this could be very
different that everyone's got to think
about for their Holdings R I never
really thought about it that way before
look we've seen it at scale in the
underperformance of active versus
passive what that is is the Battle of
the generations because the Boomers
active funds that was the way of
investing in the
past the kids their kids own passive and
we've seen a switch that passive is now
larger than active active portfolios
underperform over the long run why
because there's a Relentless sell from
the Boomers as they release capital from
their retirement assets and the
Millennials are offsetting the flows but
in different things which is kind of
Jamie's talking about because what we're
going to see is this also offsetting of
flows in this new asset class so you're
you're musling in this new asset class
in the middle of this and don't forget
there's 86 million Millennials in the
United States alone it's actually larger
than the baby boom cohort they just
don't have as much money but in an asset
class that's earlier the size of the
flows is still enormous and then you've
just given the Boomers a chance with a
with the ETF so you know there's there's
a lot going on and it is demographics is
everything I realized this in the end
almost almost everything that we do in
in um markets is actually demographics
driven we're just trying to overco
complicate it
all that we do uh Sim has a question
that very keen to get answered so we
will do so for you um Jamie I'll put
this to you can we please add this to
the question list how can 122 billion in
ETF flows account for the1 trillion doll
in Market C
growth yeah that's a good question um so
I mean like there's a multiplier effect
and there's been so many attempts at
quantifying it I personally you know
don't spend too much time thinking about
it because firstly you have to project
what is the the flows which is hard
enough I just know that there's going to
be more and then there's the multiplier
effects of what those flows mean to the
to the eventual price what we do know is
that you know Bitcoin is becoming
scarcer and it has a disinflationary
supply schedule that matched with the to
totally new cohort of structural buyers
mean price goes up over the long term of
course there's going to be massive
gations and bare markets so I mean you
know I've seen multipliers um estimated
from the likes of meril Lynch at you
know levels of like 25 I don't think
it's anywhere near that um I think it's
sort of maybe below 10 then again we
said I'm sort of you know speculating as
well so there isn't a great answer for
that Sim um you know there are people
who have put a lot of math behind it I
just feel you have to be structurally
correct or direct directionally correct
within a certain time frame um and I
think that's um you know that puts those
who are holding the asset or buying the
asset in a good position and also it
wasn't just the one billion uh the 10
billion that drove it right because
there was General flows from crypto out
of stable coins and everything else so
there was that so it's actually a
complicated process but I think yeah
Jam's answer is the right one is yes
there is a
multiplier what is it no idea so Scott
Scott saying we need an nft of that
guitar by the way um so uh Jude saying
Jamie earlier you said approximately at
the second we're approximately at the
second half of the cycle because this
cycle is different how long do you think
things play out before it's time we
always want someone ask Jam question
question
related to this is what kind of cycle do
you think it's going to be because I've
been trying to wrestle with the odds
between a left translated short cycle
regular cycle or something a bit more
wild that's kind of part of this where
you think we are in the cycle stuff when
what what is your view can I give a non
answer like I yeah there is no answer
you know so there yeah yeah I think the
way that you've thought about this R is
the correct way it's a you know you can
assign probabilities to to it and I
think you've thought about it through
the lens of like um probabilities
assigned to a moderate cycle a
disappointing one and to um to a better
than expected or something that blows
the you know blows the doors off look
and I and I've come out with my own
forecasts and that I know what that
means that means that I'll be ridiculed
and uh I don't need your forecast we
don't need your forecast don't worry
yeah I I do think that we get to around
sort of 150,000 this cycle um I think
that's and that's fairly moderate that's
just looking at a Haring of the returns
of the lows of the cycle to the peak and
so I think we we do half as much as we
did last last time and that sort of
brings me to around about 150,000 and
the ETF flows are sort of hopefully I
think baking in that um you know that
result um but I honestly don't know it
could go either way um I think the swing
here is to really watch the derivatives
Market because that brought the last
cycle undone um and you know I and
that's just the way things go I've seen
the problem I think people have with um
forecasting is that they can look at the
previous cycles and say well if this
didn't happen then we would have done
this therefore this is so the market is
the market the end of the day the price
is the final verdict so I just look at
the last price and and not take out any
of the any of the sort of events that
happened during that cycle whether it
was a China ban the liquidity cycle
whatever it is look at it and think
about actually what that means for
future Cycles I do believe we get a
moderation so I'm not in the camp of the
250,000 but I'm with you Ral there's a
probability that it
will yeah it's the one that scares me is
the short cycle we you know the kind
slightly stunted I think that was the
last cycle was like that I think we all
have PTSD so we can deal with that one
you know if they take away the punch
bowl a bit early we can kind of deal
with it because most people are sort of
expecting it a relatively normal cycle I
think people are fine with you know my
fear is the 2013 Double
pump that's
terrifying because that was what a 45%
correction mid bull market everybody
thought it PE cuz it already done 10x or
20x or 30 whatever the stupid number was
and then it did like another 20x from
that
point it was a v wasn't it I mean it
didn't even it didn't even bottom out it
I mean it didn't even sort of Flatline
out so it was wicked and that was a time
when inflation like the the protocol
inflation was extremely high right so
that was first cycle um so that was
sorry after the first harving so we
still had I don't know what that meant
in terms of inflation rate but it was
like you know High single digits or
maybe even double digits at that time
yet it was able to do that kind of thing
um but it was early so you know it was
who know who knows that's the one that
scares me the others we can kind of deal
with well if it scares you it's probably
going to scare everybody else is's just
tiptoeing into this especially if
they're holding it in their retirement
so I'm going to close out just just it's
not the volatility magg it's selling out
too early well right it's
making volatility up or down whether
you're holding the gains is still it's
like that's all the questions we get
everyone's feeling it like it's that's
why just don't sell anything it's much
easier a small little feeling of Nvidia
now on on like gone crazy right that's
what that is because every question we
get is should I take profits in Nvidia
should I hold it should I what if I sold
too early oh my God I sold too early so
they need to ask that question tomorrow
yeah of Imran and the and yes Pete John
about selling calls against your Nvidia
position or buying puts as a hedge
against it you know they're not the only
people I mean one of the largest asset
managers who has a large ETF in the
space was like what the hell do I do
about Nvidia and the
semiconductors everyone's thinking about
it because yeah they know the trend is a
good Trend they know it could turn into
a bubble nobody really wants to sell the
best performing equity in the
world but it's scary yeah some of them
did and and they're underperforming the
market especially if they you know and
that and that's been really painful by
the way that's what options are great
for three performance coaches we had on
said all of their clients which are
across the hedge fund and um fund
managing money managing private Equity
business and they're all ones in Europe
ones you know Denise is in the US and um
and Gio all said that a lot of people
are hurting so many people have gotten
it wrong they are behind so even season
professionals this is this is very
difficult so let's end quickly on on the
sort of day of because this is the daily
briefing we've got stocks rowning again
the FED said they're going to ease three
more times so Ral is this just um you
know risk on again liquidity is coming
my view hasn't changed I've been long
risk since November
2022 long crypto Long Tech and just
haven't changed that and it's been
stupidly good I just kind of left my
brain behind and said look liquidity
goes up over time over the business side
these are the assets to own and it works
incredibly you know we've got these Mega
Trends just ride them everyone
overthinks it over worry shortterm
trades it meanwhile they're it's
printing generational wealth not only in
crypto but in Tech as well so just don't
overthink it tomorrow will be more
digital than
today so therefore that's the secular
Trend and the business cycle hav't we've
only just bottomed in the ism or
bottoming so we haven't got got anywhere
so there's nothing to worry about of
course you will have volatility and the
other thing is you've got seasonality
election years basically up only with
you know one big wiggle somewhere in the
summer generally I don't see anything to
worry about you know unless
the yeah I mean even if we go to war
with somebody going to print more money
then tries the price up I just don't
have anything to worry
about well Jamie we got to end it
there before we find something to worry
about we're gonna end it there thank you
guys so much um awesome stuff and so if
you've already registered for the
workshops you're in um if you haven't
you can watch them if you're plus and
above if you are not there's a $1 offer
on right now for 14 days jump on it you
get a bunch more stuff and you can watch
these workshops maybe somebody's going
to ask the question you had on your mind
check your emails there are instructions
in your email box on what to do for all
of this and we look forward to seeing
you and the daily briefing is live from
New York City tomorrow because we got
some special stuff going on some special
live guests joining us um so be sure to
come for all of that fun thanks
everybody take care and good luck out
there thanks Ral thanks
Jamie hi I'm Ralph pal on the 5th and
6th of June 2024 I'll be speaking at the
largest AI events in Asia super AI in
Singapore at the iconic Marina Bay Sands
alongside Brilliant Minds like Edward
Snowden Benedict devans and bellagi arv
on Sage exploring the extraordinary
potential of AI and the profound change
it represents not just for financial
markets but also for the World As We
Know It with over 5,000 attendees and
over 150 side events Singapore will
become a vibrant AI hub for a full week
from the 3rd to the 9th of June so visit
realvision
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