#999 - How Can You Profit From This Next Cycle? | With Raoul Pal and Jamie Coutts

Summary

Raoul Pal, alongside influential speakers like Edward Snowden and Benedict Devans, will discuss the transformative potential of AI at the Super AI event in Singapore, June 3-9, 2024. With 5,000 attendees and 150 side events, the conference will explore AI's impact on financial markets and the world. Register for a 20% discount with the code 'Real Vision' at realvision.com.

Takeaways

• 📅 Ral will be speaking at the Super AI event in Singapore on June 5th and 6th, 2024, discussing the transformative potential of AI.
• 🤖 The Super AI event will gather over 5,000 attendees and feature more than 150 side events, making Singapore a hub for AI innovation.
• 🌐 Prominent speakers like Edward Snowden and Benedict Devans will also be in attendance, sharing insights on AI's impact on the world.
• 🎉 The event is expected to be a vibrant gathering that explores AI's influence on financial markets and the broader global landscape.
• 💡 Ral emphasizes the importance of understanding the challenges and opportunities presented by AI, particularly in the context of financial markets.
• 🚀 Ral has been a long-time advocate for cryptocurrencies, seeing them as a fast asset in a debt-driven cycle.
• 🔗 The conversation between Ral and Jamie Cotts, Real Vision's chief crypto analyst, highlights the growing interest and investment in the crypto space.
• 🌐 The discussion touches on the role of technology, particularly blockchain, in the ongoing revolution and its accessibility for investment.
• 💭 Ral expresses concerns about the difficulty of generating value in the AI space due to the dominance of entities like Open AI.
• 🔄 The conversation also explores the potential for market cycles and the impact of ETFs on the crypto market, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.
• 📈 Ral and Jamie provide insights into the future of investments, retirement planning, and the importance of adapting to the changing landscape of finance and technology.

Q & A

What is the significance of the AI event 'Super AI' taking place in Singapore in June 2024?

The 'Super AI' event is the largest AI event in Asia, showcasing the extraordinary potential of AI and its profound impact on financial markets and the world. It will gather over 5,000 attendees and feature more than 150 side events, making Singapore a vibrant AI hub for the week.

Who are some of the notable speakers at the 'Super AI' event?

The event will feature brilliant minds such as Edward Snowden, Benedict Devans, and Bellagi Aravind, among others, discussing various aspects of AI's influence and potential.

How can one register for the 'Super AI' event with a discount?

To register for the event with a 20% discount, one can visit the Real Vision website and use the promo code 'Real Vision'.

What is the main topic of discussion in the Real Vision Deli briefing with R pal and Jamie Coots?

The main topic of discussion is the exploration of the retirement crisis, the role of financial markets as problem solvers, and the significant macro opportunity presented by cryptocurrencies.

What is R pal's stance on the correlation between debt cycles and the performance of cryptocurrencies?

R pal believes that if everything is correlated and driven by the same debt cycle, it's beneficial to back the fastest asset, which he identifies as cryptocurrencies, particularly since their introduction in 2014.

How does R pal view the current state of AI investments?

R pal thinks that investing in AI is challenging because there isn't a pure AI company to trade. He suggests that most investable options are tied to other aspects like semiconductors, and he questions the bubble-like nature of the AI sector.

What is the impact of Open AI on the investment returns in AI according to R pal?

R pal believes that Open AI, with its significant resources and use of AGI, disrupts the market so effectively that it's very difficult for new startups and VC investments in AI to generate returns, as they often get outcompeted or destroyed by Open AI.

What is the significance of the Bitcoin ETF launch according to Jamie Coots?

Jamie Coots views the Bitcoin ETF launch as a significant development that has made crypto more accessible and is expected to bring a steady influx of investments into the market over many years.

How does Jamie Coots perceive the role of the SEC in the growth of the cryptocurrency market?

Jamie Coots finds the SEC's stance on Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies confusing and believes it's an institution that is trying to slow down the rapid growth of crypto to protect vested interests, rather than outright stopping it.

What is R pal's outlook on the future of AI applications and businesses?

R pal envisions a complex future where AI's ability to create applications itself challenges the traditional business model. He predicts a world beyond 2030 where many truths we hold to be self-evident will no longer apply, and societies will need to figure out how to operate in this new environment.

Outlines

00:00

📅 Upcoming AI Event in Singapore

Ra'pal announces his participation in the largest AI event in Asia, Super AI, scheduled for June 5th and 6th, 2024, in Singapore. He will be joining other brilliant minds like Edward Snowden, Benedict Devans, and Bellagi Arvon Sage to discuss the extraordinary potential of AI and its profound impact on financial markets and the world. The event expects over 5,000 attendees and more than 150 side events, making Singapore an AI hub from June 3rd to June 9th. Ra'pal encourages registration through Real Vision with a 20% discount using the code 'Real Vision'.

05:01

🤖 AI and the Future of Technology

The conversation delves into the future of AI and technology, with Ra'pal and Jamie Coots, Real Vision's co-founder and chief crypto analyst, discussing the retirement crisis and the optimistic outlook despite big challenges. Ra'pal highlights the agreement on problems like debt, aging populations, and central bank interventions but uncertainty on solutions. He emphasizes the role of financial markets as problem solvers and the potential of crypto as the fastest asset. Jamie brings up the technology revolution, including blockchain, and the challenges of investing in AI due to the lack of pure AI companies. They discuss the impact of public market activities and the potential of private market investments in AI.

10:02

💡 Insights on Crypto and Market Cycles

Jamie and Ra'pal discuss the recent Bitcoin ETF success and its implications for the crypto market. Jamie notes the surprise at the ETF's rapid growth and anticipates a slow, steady influx of funds into the market. Ra'pal expresses skepticism about the SEC's stance on Ethereum and sees it as an attempt to slow down the crypto transition. They discuss the potential for institutional investment in crypto and the impact on market cycles, with Ra'pal suggesting a 'trojan horse' effect of ETFs to introduce people to crypto. Jamie also mentions the possibility of sovereign-level accumulation of Bitcoin.

15:03

📈 Market Analysis and Investor Behavior

The discussion continues with market analysis, focusing on the potential for a market correction and investor behavior. Ra'pal and Jamie consider the impact of ETF flows on market growth and the multiplier effect. They debate the potential length and nature of the current market cycle, with Ra'pal forecasting a moderate cycle and Jamie emphasizing the importance of derivatives markets. They also touch on the generational wealth transfer and its influence on market trends, with Ra'pal advocating for a long-term, less volatile approach to investing.

20:05

💡 Retirement Planning and Longevity

The conversation shifts to retirement planning and the longevity trend. Ra'pal and Jamie discuss the importance of considering wellness and technology in preparing for the future, with Ra'pal mentioning the Fountain Life clinics and the advancements in diagnostics and preventative medicine. They emphasize the need to think holistically about retirement and to make intelligent decisions based on individual circumstances. Jamie also talks about his upcoming workshop on crypto, focusing on the generational transition and wealth transfer to Millennials.

25:05

🌐 Final Thoughts and Upcoming Workshops

Ra'pal and Jamie conclude the discussion with final thoughts on market trends and the upcoming workshops. Ra'pal reiterates his positive outlook on risk and technology, while Jamie addresses the concern of selling too early in a strong market trend. They encourage viewers to attend the workshops for more insights and to register for the Super AI event in Singapore. The conversation ends with a reminder of the $1 offer for 14 days of access to more content and workshops.

Keywords

💡AI

Artificial Intelligence (AI) refers to the development of computer systems that can perform tasks typically requiring human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and language translation. In the context of the video, AI is discussed as a transformative technology with profound implications for financial markets and the world, indicating its growing importance and potential in various sectors.

💡Cryptocurrency

Cryptocurrency is a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography for security and operates on decentralized networks, such as blockchain technology, making it resistant to government control and manipulation. In the video, cryptocurrency is presented as a major macro opportunity and a key area of focus, with references to Bitcoin and Ethereum highlighting its role as an alternative asset class and store of value.

💡Retirement Crisis

A retirement crisis refers to a situation where a significant portion of the population is unprepared for retirement, either due to insufficient savings, inadequate pension plans, or poor financial planning. In the video, the retirement crisis is mentioned as a major challenge facing society, with the speakers discussing the need for individuals to take proactive steps to secure their financial future, such as investing in assets like cryptocurrencies and technology stocks.

💡Demographic Shifts

Demographic shifts refer to changes in the size, composition, distribution, and characteristics of a population over time. These shifts can have significant social, economic, and political implications. In the context of the video, demographic shifts are discussed in relation to the aging population and the associated challenges, as well as the opportunities they present for investments in areas like longevity and wellness technologies.

💡Blockchain

Blockchain is a decentralized, distributed ledger technology that allows data to be stored across a network of computers in a secure, tamper-proof, and transparent manner. It is most commonly associated with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin but has a wide range of other potential applications. In the video, blockchain is highlighted as a key part of the technology revolution and its role in enabling new ways of investing and conducting transactions.

💡ETF

An Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund and exchange-traded product that holds a collection of assets, such as stocks, bonds, or commodities, and is traded on stock exchanges similar to individual stocks. ETFs are popular because they offer diversification, low costs, and tax efficiency. In the video, the success of Bitcoin ETFs is discussed, indicating a growing interest and accessibility for investors to participate in the cryptocurrency market through traditional financial channels.

💡Longevity

Longevity refers to the quality or state of living for a long life; it often encompasses the science, policies, and social changes related to living longer and healthier lives. In the video, longevity is discussed in the context of investment opportunities in health and wellness technologies, as the aging population creates a demand for solutions that can enhance life quality and extend working years.

💡Technology Revolution

A technology revolution refers to a significant and rapid change brought about by the introduction of new technologies that alter the way people live, work, and interact with each other. The current technology revolution is characterized by advancements in areas like artificial intelligence, blockchain, and biotechnology. In the video, the technology revolution is a central theme, with the speakers exploring how these technological advancements are reshaping financial markets and the broader world.

💡Investment Strategies

Investment strategies refer to the approaches or plans that individuals or institutions use to achieve their financial goals, which may include diversification, risk management, and asset allocation. In the video, investment strategies are discussed in the context of preparing for retirement, navigating the cryptocurrency market, and capitalizing on the opportunities presented by technological advancements and demographic shifts.

💡Market Volatility

Market volatility refers to the rapid and frequent fluctuations in the price of stocks, currencies, or other financial instruments. It is often caused by factors such as economic uncertainty, geopolitical events, or corporate news, and can present both risks and opportunities for investors. In the video, market volatility is a concern for investors in the cryptocurrency and technology sectors, as it can lead to significant gains or losses.

Highlights

Raoul Pal will be speaking at the largest AI event in Asia, Super AI, in Singapore.

The event will take place from June 5th to 6th, 2024, at the iconic Marina Bay Sands.

Brilliant minds like Edward Snowden, Benedict Devans, and Bellagi Aravind will also be in attendance.

The event will explore the extraordinary potential of AI and its profound impact on financial markets and the world.

There will be over 5,000 attendees and more than 150 side events, making Singapore an AI hub from June 3rd to 9th.

Visitors can register with a 20% discount using the code 'Real Vision' at the Real Vision Docomo website.

The Real Vision Deliberating briefing features Real Vision co-founder Raoul Pal and chief crypto analyst Jamie Coots.

The discussion revolves around the retirement crisis, the challenges it poses, and the optimistic outlook despite the difficulties.

There is a general agreement on the problems caused by debt, aging populations, and central bank interventions.

Financial markets are seen as problem solvers, with people looking for different ways to tackle issues, such as the use of gold and cryptocurrencies.

Cryptocurrencies are considered the fastest asset, with Pal advocating for them since 2014 on Real Vision.

The conversation also touches on the technology revolution, with blockchain being a significant part of it.

AI is a recurring theme, with discussions on how to invest in it and the challenges of the current market.

The panelists express concerns about the future, especially with the rapid advancements in AI and its implications on businesses and society.

The conversation also includes a discussion on the recent Bitcoin ETF success and its impact on the crypto market.

Jamie Coots shares his insights on the crypto market's reaction to the ETF and the potential for future growth.

The panelists agree that the market is still in its early stages, with more institutional involvement expected over time.

The discussion concludes with thoughts on the potential for a more substantial crypto market correction and the unique dynamics of this cycle.

Transcripts

hi I'm Ral pal on the 5th and 6th of

June 2024 I'll be speaking of the

largest AI events in Asia super AI in

Singapore at the iconic Marina Bay Sand

alongside brilliant mins like Edward

Snowden Benedict devans and bellari are

on Sage exploring the extraordinary

potential of AI and the profound change

it represents not just for financial

markets but also for the World As We

Know It with over 5,000 attendees and

over 150 side events Singapore will

become a vibrant AI hub for a full week

from the 3rd to the 9th of June so visit

realvision

docomo to register and join me with 20%

off tickets with the code real Vision

the links in the

[Music]

description how can you profit from this

next cycle hi everyone Welcome to the

Real Vision Deli briefing I'm Maggie

Lake and with me today is real Vision

co-founder R pal and Jamie Coots our

chief crypto analyst hello gentlemen

double

trouble he Magie double Jamie's like I'm

not even signing on to that he's like hi

you're right it's always Double Trouble

When R's here and our opening question

listen it's just a nice way of saying

how do we not F this up right and that

is the question that we've been asking

all week and really looking at for the

past two weeks in this special series

we've been doing and Ral you kicked it

off with some pretty Stark warnings

about the retirement crisis that we're

all facing um but it's not all doom and

gloom and throughout the conversations I

was really struck by even in the first

week the fact that there was optimism

punching through even though we were

talking about some of these really big

challenges um and and some of it was

sort of contrary uh you know that on the

one hand it's really bad but here's how

I here's the sort of optimistic thing

I'm thinking about I'm just wondering

how you're feeling as we wrap up this

two we

campaign I think people have been aware

for a long time now that everybody's

pretty and the world is kind of

rigged against you unless you have all

the

assets and so people get that so I think

a lot of people have been thinking

through it I think what's interesting is

most people agree what's gone wrong

people aren't sure how it went wrong you

know I'm demographics biased other

people are whatever um but they kind of

all roughly agree with the problems

itself debt aging

populations excess intervention by

central banks to try and solve these

problems all of these things government

interventions in that whole in the whole

thing but people have you know financial

markets are problem solvers by core so

they're always looking for different

ways and you know a bunch of people

would say and have been saying for a

long time gold is the answer and gold

has done okay in this environment you

know it's protected Global purchasing

power hasn't done hasn't created wealth

but it's kind of protect it you know

other people look at other ways of doing

it um you know and

I got to the conclusion that if

everything is correlated and driven by

this same debt cycle then you just want

to back the fastest asset and by a long

way it's crypto which I you know I keep

pounding the table have done since 2014

on realvision that this is the biggest

macro opportunity of all time since the

first time I talked about Bitcoin on

real Vision it's up 450,000

per. I mean it sounds it sounds makeb

believe when you say that number bananas

right this is a bananas world we live in

and it's a

gift it is so I'm gonna take a step back

and say one of the two themes that came

up yes crypto is a part of it and we

know you feel strongly about that

Jamie's looking into it and Jamie just

said before we came on um and we had

some folks listening in welcome to all

you nft holders um that you know when I

looked at equities so all everyone has a

foot in macro still has a foot in macro

started out in macro before they went

down into crypto or got on that

bandwagon but at the core it's really

technology right and that's the other

big theme that came through um in this

series is is sort of the technology

Revolution that we're facing and

blockchain is a part of that um the the

issue and we're going to get into that a

little bit and Jamie I'm interested to

hear your thoughts has always been

access to that right where as rest of us

can feel and use an access technology

and invest more easily in technology the

CIS crypto part of it has been a little

bit more challenging although that may

be changing so so let's let's talk about

those two buckets and I'm going to start

with technology first Ral and one of the

things that comes up again and again is

AI and we had a great conversation

between Jordy and Beth in fact

somebody's like who's the genius that

those put those two together and behind

the scenes we're all like who's that we

think it might have been ral's idea damn

you we think it was your idea but it was

a great conversation um and really

talking about what that's doing and ways

to invest in that um and this is

something that you've been looking at a

long time you've talked to both of them

before in the past does it feel bubbly

to you does it feel like we're in the

early Innings how are you thinking about

AI there's not even an AI company to

trade

we're trading so I don't know how it's a

bubble I mean yeah you can trade

Microsoft but it comes with a bunch of

other stuff Nvidia okay it's a chipmaker

yes it's creating AI software and other

stuff that's the closest we've got so

it's not like there's a bunch of you

know it's not like 2,000 where every

tech company goes up we just don't have

that so I'm not sure how investable it

really is outside of the semiconductors

which I've been long of for a year for

pro macro um and also in the exponential

and they've done incredibly well and

they continue to go well because there

was a panic to buy

computes but what was really interesting

is Elon Musk was talking earlier in the

week um about okay there's a panic to

buy compute now most people have put in

the sort of orders they need to put in

so going forwards nvidia's growth may

slow whether it's next year or the year

after and it will inevitably slow right

this is like a pandemic Panic into into

purchasing stuff um but he's like well

the next thing is you need Transformers

to step power down from power plants to

chips and it's like we don't have enough

in the world he was speaking at Bosch

the German electronics company and said

you guys need to make more of this stuff

we're about to run out of the ability to

generate enough power to generate all of

this stuff and then he's saying and then

we got a problem with electricity we're

just not ready for the amount of power

we need for this compute so this story

is going to keep unfolding and we really

have only just started yeah one of the

interesting things Beth said was in this

cycle I thought this was such an

interesting comment that a lot of what's

Happening will see if it continues is

happening in publicly traded companies

whereas previously now not not to say

there's not a boatload of money being

invested in the private Market chasing

this but there is a lot of activity in

the public Market as these companies

move into that business that wasn't

always the case in other Cycles I was so

interesting so think what's happening

here I'm not sure that

VC in AI is even going to generate any

returns and the reason being is by the

time you raise the capital launch your

product open AI has destroyed it I

actually personally believe that open AI

is building AI using AGI or something

close to AGI so they're using there's no

way 500 people can generate this much

disruption across this many business

lines in this speed right so I think

they're doing a different process than

anybody else so every time there's a

bunch of new startups come along open AI

just basically destroys them so I think

it's very very very difficult to

generate value in this space unless you

have all the compute so there's a few

companies the French one mistr um you

know I'm not even sure how mad's

stability AI um will do and I think it's

really really hard to compete in this

it's really hard to compete you need

Deep Pockets you need that power

eventually as you mentioned you're going

to need the energy um it's it's it's

different than what we've seen before J

because the applications layer don't

forget Within by the time GPT 5 comes

out they'll have um samon was talking

about this they'll have

multi-agents which means that you can

ask it to build a website that does X

blah blah blah and it'll just do it all

so how do you build businesses on the

applications layer when the AI itself

can create the applications layer in 10

minutes and then you get into the

problem in the future is let's

say somebody developed something amazing

and it's really cool it's getting

traction so you go to the AGI and say I

want to replicate this product but with

stronger behavioral incentives and I

want to skew it towards the larger

audience of India go it'll build it in

10

minutes so then how do you build

companies and I talked about this in my

piece is like Beyond 2030 this becomes a

very very very complicated world because

a lot of what we understand to be true

will not be true any

longer yeah which is a daunting thing to

think about and and this is also why we

kind of kicked off the series close to

the top of a geopolitical conversation

with D Smith and Jacob because you're

talking about how to Bild businesses how

do you how do you create a business in

that environment we got to figure out

how we op you know operate as Societies

in that environment and it's going to be

messy as we make that transition um

Jamie I want to bring you in though um

let's talk a little bit about what's

happening in crypto so of course that is

the other big sort of opportunity set

people are talking about and we now have

a situation where we have this Bitcoin

ETF so

theoretically uh it is a little bit more

accessible to people some of the barrier

perhaps has been taken down we know that

there's been headlines around how

successful how quickly it's grown the

most successful ETF launch ever if you

just look at the speed in which it it

generated inflows how are you thinking

about the crypto Market in the wake of

that what what are you seeing and what

are you

hearing yeah well I mean the success of

the ETF products um I think it's taken

most people by surprise we're seeing

just in the last week or the last couple

of days we're seeing some outflows so

we're starting to see that first that

first pullback really from the um from

what we saw from the outset but really

we are still very very early in this

game there are a lot of platforms that

have not yet signed up or opened up to

the to the ETFs so I think this will be

you know a drip feed into the market

over you know many many years um but

Bitcoin is still going to be subject and

crypto is still going to be subject to

the same cycles that we've seen before

um so the the real big question now in

regards to the ETF

is what about ethereum and so obviously

we've got an SEC that is still outwardly

against the idea of an ethereum ETF

which is just bananas when you think

about it like they've approved an

ethereum Futures ETF um so they I mean

if that's the case then they what

they've done is effectively illegal by

approving that product in the first

place um you've got all of the emails

that came out from the previous chairman

which clearly stated that amongst all

the SEC officials at that time they

didn't believe that ethereum was the

security so it's just it's confusing to

the market and I think this is really

just the last gasping breaths of a

system or a

institution that is beholden to certain

interests that are not aligned with the

future not aligned with the you know the

the the productivity and The Innovation

that's required to dig the country and

to dig every nation state out of the

hole that's been created over the last

you know multi-decade period and so I

think we're starting to see you know one

of the best indicators for the change in

sentiment that we're seeing globally is

really what's happening just in the US

presidential election cycle this time

around like in 2020 ra do you remember

anyone suggesting without being laughed

out of the room that it would become a

presidential issue or a policy platform

of any of the presidential candidates it

was like it was not even remotely on the

radar now you've got candidates from all

sides of politics actually promoting the

concepts of you know monetary

sovereignty and the need for you know a

Digital hard asset and neutral um

neutral currency like Bitcoin but it's

extending to also the cryptocurrency

space as well so I just think it's you

know what we're seeing is just the last

gasps of you know one of my views on

this Jamie is

that everybody knows how messy the

system is I think the central Bankers

are not stupid everybody knows and they

know what they're doing they're debasing

currency to try to not this let the

system blow up because all of the

savings are with the retirees and it's

you know it's a big mess so their one

job is to not allow the migration into

cryptoland to happen too fast I don't

think they're going to stop it

I don't think they even probably want to

stop it I don't think the the banks want

to stop it I don't think anybody wants

to stop it but I think their real job is

to slow it down what they don't want

is is Bitcoin as a deemed to be a

currency you know a world currency as an

asset as a store of value knock your

socks off as as an investment no problem

you want to build on top of the

technology no problem just don't think

of it as a world currency because that

threatens the overall system but that's

I kind of I just think of them as

throttling it so even you know I think

all of us are laughing at the SEC trying

to Now call Ether security I think it's

just a delay tactic as ever just slow it

down it could very well be but I also

think about it this way it's the it's

the Dynamics of a messy democratic

system where you've got vested interests

and I think some vested interests do

want to stop it

but what it ends up being is this sort

of they just basically putting the

brakes on the slowing it down as you

said because there's now multiple

factions involved and that creates the

market for the prices and but also

creates the market for the memes and

everything else that come to regulations

so you know it's it's um it feels

frustrating one thing that makes me

laugh Jamie is the more that they try

and constrict it or slow it down

whatever right the more the space gets

ridiculous the more the memes come the

more the middle finger comes up the more

the the space reacts

to that kind of pressure it makes me

laugh how how much people don't care

about what the old system says

anymore yeah I don't think they fully

understand what they're messing with

right you you guys you you find it um by

the way there was like for one H second

almost a meme coin of Ralph if I'm not

mistaken um which was hilarious this

week but um but you find it funny and

entertaining and a sort of you know F

you to the man to the government or to

The Regulators other people see this as

sort of cassino like volatility that

scares them when they're trying to think

about whether they should go into this

or put this in their portfolio or try to

figure out how to go through the Hoops

to to to to do that um Melvin asked

we've seen massive Bitcoin ETF inflows

will we see massive outflows when we

reach the end of macro summer beginning

fall or will the institutions behave

differently this time Jamie first of all

is this being driven by institutions um

Jim biano made the argument that this is

still cuq on steroids this is weak

retail hands he feels like and people

who are looking for the early gain he

doesn't feel like there's a lot of

institutional muscle in this yet but but

either of you can disagree with that um

but you know how how should we think

about this volatility and R I know

you're always warning that this is an

alien asset still and it's young and

this is part of what you buy into when

you go there but if we're talking about

crypto as a possible way to build wealth

in the next 10 years before none of us

can see the future anymore you know that

that matters to some people especially

depending on your risk profile Jamie you

first and then

Ral okay so the market structures

definitely change it changes every

single cycle there's a new cohort comes

in so there is institutions involved in

this cycle you can see it in the median

transaction value of Bitcoin transfers

so it reached a you know a disastrously

low um median price of transfer level

around seven or eight months ago it was

just it was around $10 now that's gone

up to 300 it's just one measure I mean

the price has gone up as well so you

have to sort of disentangle that but

definitely transfer value values and the

onchain data is clear some of the buyers

of the ETFs are institutions Black Rock

and Fidelity themselves are allocating

some of their other ETFs their

multi-asset ETFs into this product which

was always the long-term game plan and

so I think a lot of Institutions are

doing the same thing they're thinking

about as the new asset class I certainly

think that is the case digital assets in

a hole and I would you know bucket that

Bitcoin and everything else but some of

the allocations are going into long-term

multi-asset type portfolios which will

have a they'll have an impact a very

differing impact on the Cycles because

the way that they treat those

allocations the way they rebalance uh

based on performance will change

potentially smooth some of the

volatility over the long term but

there's still retail there there's still

the same sort of um you know you know

fomo activity that we've seen in

previous Cycles but I don't think you

can you can say that this is the same as

every other cycle it's it's

changed well

also the raas do the same kind of thing

is like they

just often will say to their clients

we'll put 1% of your portfolio and the

discretionary stuff so that

changes I think they all are aware how

volatile this is It's been sold to them

as a volatile asset and there a

long-term thing my guess is there's more

long-term holders later you'll get the

fomo retail of everybody trying to do

this but right now this is a lot of

people like bitwise Fidelity Franklin

everybody going to their client base

talking them through it explaining it

you know this is more thoughtful

allocation the other thing that people

haven't realized is you can now put it

in your

401k so the average Millennial who's a

buyer of the NASDAQ or the S&P 500

passive index products will buy this and

they

every two weeks with a paycheck and so

we will see a difference in the

structure of flows as Jamie is alluding

to it's just going to change probably

means it's less volatile on the down

cycle it also could cause a full bubble

on the Up Cycle this time around because

you've got numerous new participants who

could enter and you know this is a

limited Supply asset and 80% of it

hoarded so it can get pretty tricky so I

don't know how how it plays out but I

don't agree with Jim biano um I know a

lot of purists don't like it because

it's an ETF and not people opening

wallets and self- custody I actually

think of it as a trojan horse where

we're actually teaching people about

this product before you know it they

understand why they're buying it and

they come into cryptand um

so I think I think it's relatively good

quality holders also Hunter horley

hinted that um I think it's on the

quarterly statements you'll see who the

big holders of the ETFs are and he

hinted that you'll be surprised who's on

the list bitwise right Hunter bitwise

yeah yeah um

interesting yeah I've got this sne

suspicion too Maggie that um we've

already started to see accumulation by

institutions at a sovereign level

whether that's Sovereign wealth funds

the pensions potentially nation states

you've got mining operations now in

several countries around the world where

the countries themselves have

co-invested with private mining

companies so and these These are

countries that are sort of typically

energy rich um and are significant

players within that you know within the

energy markets and I think they see the

world very differently to you know

Europe or the United States or Western

countries I don't think we'll see any

major announcements in the short term I

just think that you know my working

hypothesis is that they're accumulating

they've got access to virgin Bitcoin

through the mining operations if they

foresee a world in which Bitcoin does

become significant they can avoid one of

the major steps in in disclosing and

showing their cards by going to a black

rock going to a coinbase to acquire

coins they have access to Virgin coins

domestically so it's just um you know

it's another sign for me that you know

the game has

changed fascinating stuff um and Pluto

five I think that answers your question

slimy Tom love these handles uh slimy

Tom asks we had a mild for crypto

correction do either of you think we

will face a more substantial draw down

along the lines of the usual prehab 30

plus

percent

um doesn't fa so I mean we did I sold

did what

23% maybe it makes a new low could be an

ABC correction or it just forms another

little wedge pattern I really have a

strong view but you should just expect

30% as normal course of business

and if you get away with less than that

great I don't know Jamie you got a

view not really I mean this you know I

think pomp said on TV a couple of days

ago this is a pullback for an this is a

Bitcoin pullback for ants I mean like

it's not even 30% we we should expect 30

to 40% pullbacks in a bull market where

we've seen

150% uh appreciation in just the last 12

months so it's been a little bit unus

usual and that's really the structural

buyer of the ETFs that's smooth things

out um I follow the derivatives markets

really closely um perhaps more closely

than I should given I just got Scar isue

from the last cycle because that was

really what brought the markets um you

know undone eventually in Bitcoin I

still think they're going to play a

major role I'm watching it like just for

for the earli signs that we bu we're

starting to see the buildup of

concerning leverage and um sort of

behavior that is top you know is toppy

in nature um and you know you still see

very high open interest but the funding

rates have come down now the funding

rates still elevated so we do need a

reset we need some of the open interest

to go away we need um funding rates to

get somewhere back to neutral um but it

could be very well be that they stay a

little bit more elevated because we've

got the perception ETFs are there

they're buying every day at 3 to five

times the supply

I'm fine I can take this leverage and

that sort of builds in you know risks

over the long term but to your point

Maggie like yeah we could pull back a

little bit further but I think um you

know we're sort of at the halfway point

of the cycle I mean some of the I would

just put this a little point in as well

there are some indicators onchain

indicators which are in the top end of

the valuation ranges based on previous

history so if you look at the pure

multiple which looks at the the fee

revenue from miners uh over the last 365

days and where that tends to PE that's

very high that's very elevated that's

been a very strong indicator of of

Bitcoin tops but the difference is that

you know inscriptions are only about a

year old so that is a new form of demand

for Block space which you know every

cycle is different so it's changing

things a little bit but we you know

we've got some you've got some onchain

signs that we're definitely in the sort

of second half of this this bull

market fantastic stuff the fact that

you're so deeply looking derivatives um

boggles my mind but makes me thrilled

that you're our chief crypto strategist

Jamie thank you for that uh question

slightly off topic Jamie please tell us

about the Clapton guitar behind you I

know it's off topic but it is a Clapton

right yeah it's it's a signed Eric

Clapton Fender um I can't play I just

love music I picked this up at an

auction years ago it's probably the only

thing I've ever bid on in an auction it

wasn't as much as what people might

think so hopefully it's worth a lot more

even if it even if it is I'm not selling

it um but yeah I think it's it's got one

of his signed albums as well so it's so

it's quite funny because I like Jamie

love music I like Jamie cannot play

guitar I have assigned David Bowie

Bender Strat that was in the office in

the real Vision office in New York I

don't know where it is right now what do

you mean you don't know where it is well

somebody cleaned it out and I need to

get guitar back and there's a signed

Alden cover as well so kind of like

Jamie well we'll Farge around uh for

that it's Bri or petza some one of these

guys will know where it is all right

well we'll put one of The Magicians on

on the task somebody might be holding it

for ransom but alternative Investments

you've got to keep your eye on them

there's no wallet for that I think uh so

um I want to talk a little bit about

another Trend that came up before I

tackle a few more questions coming in

here and that was long vity so this is

super interesting this dropped today so

I'm guessing that a lot of you hadn't

had a CH haven't had a chance to watch

it yet Jamie I know that you did because

you guys were talking about it right as

we came on air um but Ral this is an

issue that comes up in in so many

different places as people are looking

into the future and I suppose it kind of

falls into technology but this is really

the sort of Flip or positive side or

trying to find the opportunity in that

aging demographic that you talked about

I guess

so the the motivations for people to be

investors is exactly the same as the

motivation for

wellness it's your future vision of

yourself they're identical they're very

similar behavioral

motivations and now we've got this Nexus

where technology has met with this

Wellness Trend and you've got this

longevity stuff that's happening plus

the ability to ATS scale cure disease uh

Diagnostics preventative medicine things

that didn't exist before and it's only

going to accelerate with the use of

AI and I had been talking to Peter de

mandis about this in the past we had Tom

Bilu talking about it in the past um

I've been down this rabbit hole and

Jamie and I were talking off camera he's

going down the rabbit hole we all go

down this rabbit hole because you know

once you get a few gray hairs in your

beard you start thinking oh my God I am

now and Jamie just had a kid it's like

oh now to need need to think about

my longevity you've got the gray bits in

your beard I can see and so um you do

start thinking about it so I really

wanted to speak so Peter deand said well

I've started a whole set of you know

Cutting Edge clinics called Fountain

life so I'm like that's what I want to

speak to so um Bill cap came on and

talked to me about what they're doing

the Diagnostics the preventative stuff

and how advanced it is and how far

behind your own doctor is or your

average cardiologist or your you know

average oncologist and all of this stuff

and so it it was a really really

interesting conversation and there's

been several of these on real Vision as

I've gone down that that kind of on um

on the journey man I've kind of gone

down this rabbit hole because I think

it's an important one and one that I'm

personally interested in and that's not

assuming any of us are perfect Tom Bilo

is perfect it's like he wears a glucose

monitor at all points he doesn't eat

anything he does you know he's so

disciplined I'm not but you you try and

head in the right direction most of the

time uh and try not to it up and

you know how to unfuck your future a

very important part of it there's no

point getting all your Investments right

and being in bad Health yeah or being

stressed out so um we've got a a day not

to jump ahead but we have a day of

workshops tomorrow we're going to close

this thing out with a day of live

workshops and I'm going to kick things

off in the morning with the Nigerian

brothers and Imron talking about how you

can use options both to enhance returns

and protect yourself something not

enough of us do because they can be

intimidating so those guys are going to

break it down um and you are going to

talk about retirement and Jared and one

of the things that you both emphasize is

uh the stress factor right it's not just

a mathematical equation it's how to

think about your retirement kind of

holistically about what you want and

it's interesting is you're going to talk

to the people that are closer to

retirement age and Jared Jamie is more

your along your lines probably talking

about people who are kind of planning

further ahead in the future or

Millennials who are looking at I there

is no perfect answer it's actually much

easier to answer the question for young

people than it is for older people right

because it becomes very specific to your

experiences when you're young you have a

lot of probabilistic future paths right

so you set yourself in a decently good

direction and a bit of luck will carry

you the older you are you you're set

you've got a set set of circumstances if

you've retired it's what you've retired

with if you're coming up to retirement

it's like what is your earning power how

much time do you have stuff like that so

how I'm probably going to handle my

panel is really questions yeah because I

don't have a fixed answer because

everybody's going to be different in

mind well Jared if he's talking to a

bunch of 25 year olds 30 year olds it's

actually easier to answer doesn't mean

there is a you know there's a definitive

we're all going to be rich but it's a a

way of thinking that's much easier

mine's going to be more difficult so I

think I want to do it on a case-by Case

basis without trying to give investment

advice but just give directional ways of

thinking this through and making

Intelligent Decisions because I've you

know I've also seen a lot of my parents

and parents friends make all the

mistakes and I've seen of them get it

all right and learning from others is

you know it's very good you know I'm

what's weird is I'm a

very conservative person in terms of

debt and other stuff but now I've become

a risk taker because I've got the

security to take risk because I saw what

happened to and we talked about this in

the past Maggie it's like I saw what

happened to my parents friends or seeing

parents friends I mean awful run out of

money people have had great careers

never really saved enough in their

pensions and before know they run out of

money at 80 years old yeah and they

don't have anywhere to live stuff you

know it's and if their kids that can't

support them that kind of is is bad

and I've seen it all so hopefully I can

speak with some experience yeah and I

think we're always looking for Solutions

right so um a lot of people feel

hopeless and we had some really amazing

comments throughout the series just

saying I was in a really dark place and

I listen to this and you know

information is power and so there is

usually a way forward and so you you

know we don't want anyone to feel like

that and we want people to you know um

come where others are sharing

information and if they've found a way

forward the community is fantastic about

sharing that as well so really looking

forward to that and Jamie you're going

to do one all about crypto we got a lot

of crypto questions in

here yeah so this is my first um for the

real Vision community so there'll be

sort of a short presentation at the

start maybe 15 minutes we'll walk

through some of the basics uh just in

terms of what a

Monumental opportunity this represents

um for those that people that can

understand what's in front of them and

this generational transition that we're

seeing from Boomers to the younger the

younger Generations what that means in

terms of the wealth

transfer money is going to flow into the

pockets of Millennials through inherence

through inheritance but also the change

in behavior that that that's going to

typify already we've got the data on

this so this isn't really a leap of

faith the data is there Millennials have

spending pattern they have an investment

patent they are the Next Generation that

will take over from you know even people

like me like I'm a gen AA um and so you

know Boomers Gen X Millennials the

cohorts after that they see World In a

Different Light you have to you know to

borrow from a technical analysis Trend

you have you know the trend is your

friend so really it's just a question of

like how then do you frame it um how do

you allocate to it what's the correct

POS position size so we'll run through

that um and hopefully answer some

questions that's it's a fascinating

thing to think about because even if

you're not in that cohort they're going

to be influencing things so so you've

got to I mean this could be very

different that everyone's got to think

about for their Holdings R I never

really thought about it that way before

look we've seen it at scale in the

underperformance of active versus

passive what that is is the Battle of

the generations because the Boomers

active funds that was the way of

investing in the

past the kids their kids own passive and

we've seen a switch that passive is now

larger than active active portfolios

underperform over the long run why

because there's a Relentless sell from

the Boomers as they release capital from

their retirement assets and the

Millennials are offsetting the flows but

in different things which is kind of

Jamie's talking about because what we're

going to see is this also offsetting of

flows in this new asset class so you're

you're musling in this new asset class

in the middle of this and don't forget

there's 86 million Millennials in the

United States alone it's actually larger

than the baby boom cohort they just

don't have as much money but in an asset

class that's earlier the size of the

flows is still enormous and then you've

just given the Boomers a chance with a

with the ETF so you know there's there's

a lot going on and it is demographics is

everything I realized this in the end

almost almost everything that we do in

in um markets is actually demographics

driven we're just trying to overco

complicate it

all that we do uh Sim has a question

that very keen to get answered so we

will do so for you um Jamie I'll put

this to you can we please add this to

the question list how can 122 billion in

ETF flows account for the1 trillion doll

in Market C

growth yeah that's a good question um so

I mean like there's a multiplier effect

and there's been so many attempts at

quantifying it I personally you know

don't spend too much time thinking about

it because firstly you have to project

what is the the flows which is hard

enough I just know that there's going to

be more and then there's the multiplier

effects of what those flows mean to the

to the eventual price what we do know is

that you know Bitcoin is becoming

scarcer and it has a disinflationary

supply schedule that matched with the to

totally new cohort of structural buyers

mean price goes up over the long term of

course there's going to be massive

gations and bare markets so I mean you

know I've seen multipliers um estimated

from the likes of meril Lynch at you

know levels of like 25 I don't think

it's anywhere near that um I think it's

sort of maybe below 10 then again we

said I'm sort of you know speculating as

well so there isn't a great answer for

that Sim um you know there are people

who have put a lot of math behind it I

just feel you have to be structurally

correct or direct directionally correct

within a certain time frame um and I

think that's um you know that puts those

who are holding the asset or buying the

asset in a good position and also it

wasn't just the one billion uh the 10

billion that drove it right because

there was General flows from crypto out

of stable coins and everything else so

there was that so it's actually a

complicated process but I think yeah

Jam's answer is the right one is yes

there is a

multiplier what is it no idea so Scott

Scott saying we need an nft of that

guitar by the way um so uh Jude saying

Jamie earlier you said approximately at

the second we're approximately at the

second half of the cycle because this

cycle is different how long do you think

things play out before it's time we

always want someone ask Jam question

question

related to this is what kind of cycle do

you think it's going to be because I've

been trying to wrestle with the odds

between a left translated short cycle

regular cycle or something a bit more

wild that's kind of part of this where

you think we are in the cycle stuff when

what what is your view can I give a non

answer like I yeah there is no answer

you know so there yeah yeah I think the

way that you've thought about this R is

the correct way it's a you know you can

assign probabilities to to it and I

think you've thought about it through

the lens of like um probabilities

assigned to a moderate cycle a

disappointing one and to um to a better

than expected or something that blows

the you know blows the doors off look

and I and I've come out with my own

forecasts and that I know what that

means that means that I'll be ridiculed

and uh I don't need your forecast we

don't need your forecast don't worry

yeah I I do think that we get to around

sort of 150,000 this cycle um I think

that's and that's fairly moderate that's

just looking at a Haring of the returns

of the lows of the cycle to the peak and

so I think we we do half as much as we

did last last time and that sort of

brings me to around about 150,000 and

the ETF flows are sort of hopefully I

think baking in that um you know that

result um but I honestly don't know it

could go either way um I think the swing

here is to really watch the derivatives

Market because that brought the last

cycle undone um and you know I and

that's just the way things go I've seen

the problem I think people have with um

forecasting is that they can look at the

previous cycles and say well if this

didn't happen then we would have done

this therefore this is so the market is

the market the end of the day the price

is the final verdict so I just look at

the last price and and not take out any

of the any of the sort of events that

happened during that cycle whether it

was a China ban the liquidity cycle

whatever it is look at it and think

about actually what that means for

future Cycles I do believe we get a

moderation so I'm not in the camp of the

250,000 but I'm with you Ral there's a

probability that it

will yeah it's the one that scares me is

the short cycle we you know the kind

slightly stunted I think that was the

last cycle was like that I think we all

have PTSD so we can deal with that one

you know if they take away the punch

bowl a bit early we can kind of deal

with it because most people are sort of

expecting it a relatively normal cycle I

think people are fine with you know my

fear is the 2013 Double

pump that's

terrifying because that was what a 45%

correction mid bull market everybody

thought it PE cuz it already done 10x or

20x or 30 whatever the stupid number was

and then it did like another 20x from

that

point it was a v wasn't it I mean it

didn't even it didn't even bottom out it

I mean it didn't even sort of Flatline

out so it was wicked and that was a time

when inflation like the the protocol

inflation was extremely high right so

that was first cycle um so that was

sorry after the first harving so we

still had I don't know what that meant

in terms of inflation rate but it was

like you know High single digits or

maybe even double digits at that time

yet it was able to do that kind of thing

um but it was early so you know it was

who know who knows that's the one that

scares me the others we can kind of deal

with well if it scares you it's probably

going to scare everybody else is's just

tiptoeing into this especially if

they're holding it in their retirement

so I'm going to close out just just it's

not the volatility magg it's selling out

too early well right it's

making volatility up or down whether

you're holding the gains is still it's

like that's all the questions we get

everyone's feeling it like it's that's

why just don't sell anything it's much

easier a small little feeling of Nvidia

now on on like gone crazy right that's

what that is because every question we

get is should I take profits in Nvidia

should I hold it should I what if I sold

too early oh my God I sold too early so

they need to ask that question tomorrow

yeah of Imran and the and yes Pete John

about selling calls against your Nvidia

position or buying puts as a hedge

against it you know they're not the only

people I mean one of the largest asset

managers who has a large ETF in the

space was like what the hell do I do

about Nvidia and the

semiconductors everyone's thinking about

it because yeah they know the trend is a

good Trend they know it could turn into

a bubble nobody really wants to sell the

best performing equity in the

world but it's scary yeah some of them

did and and they're underperforming the

market especially if they you know and

that and that's been really painful by

the way that's what options are great

for three performance coaches we had on

said all of their clients which are

across the hedge fund and um fund

managing money managing private Equity

business and they're all ones in Europe

ones you know Denise is in the US and um

and Gio all said that a lot of people

are hurting so many people have gotten

it wrong they are behind so even season

professionals this is this is very

difficult so let's end quickly on on the

sort of day of because this is the daily

briefing we've got stocks rowning again

the FED said they're going to ease three

more times so Ral is this just um you

know risk on again liquidity is coming

my view hasn't changed I've been long

risk since November

2022 long crypto Long Tech and just

haven't changed that and it's been

stupidly good I just kind of left my

brain behind and said look liquidity

goes up over time over the business side

these are the assets to own and it works

incredibly you know we've got these Mega

Trends just ride them everyone

overthinks it over worry shortterm

trades it meanwhile they're it's

printing generational wealth not only in

crypto but in Tech as well so just don't

overthink it tomorrow will be more

digital than

today so therefore that's the secular

Trend and the business cycle hav't we've

only just bottomed in the ism or

bottoming so we haven't got got anywhere

so there's nothing to worry about of

course you will have volatility and the

other thing is you've got seasonality

election years basically up only with

you know one big wiggle somewhere in the

summer generally I don't see anything to

worry about you know unless

the yeah I mean even if we go to war

with somebody going to print more money

then tries the price up I just don't

have anything to worry

about well Jamie we got to end it

there before we find something to worry

about we're gonna end it there thank you

guys so much um awesome stuff and so if

you've already registered for the

workshops you're in um if you haven't

you can watch them if you're plus and

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get a bunch more stuff and you can watch

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to ask the question you had on your mind

check your emails there are instructions

in your email box on what to do for all

of this and we look forward to seeing

you and the daily briefing is live from

New York City tomorrow because we got

some special stuff going on some special

live guests joining us um so be sure to

come for all of that fun thanks

everybody take care and good luck out

there thanks Ral thanks

Jamie hi I'm Ralph pal on the 5th and

6th of June 2024 I'll be speaking at the

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Singapore at the iconic Marina Bay Sands

alongside Brilliant Minds like Edward

Snowden Benedict devans and bellagi arv

on Sage exploring the extraordinary

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it represents not just for financial

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