The Stock Market Is Crashing - This Is Why

Summary

In this video, Sasha discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce interest rates for the first time since April 2020. Contrary to popular belief that this will boost the stock market, Sasha presents a different perspective. He highlights the potential risks of the Fed's actions, including the possibility of a rapid rate drop in response to economic downturns, rather than a controlled reduction from a position of strength. The video delves into economic indicators such as inflation, manufacturing activity, and consumer spending, suggesting that the US economy might be in a more precarious position than the market anticipates.

Takeaways

• 📉 The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce interest rates for the first time since April 2020, which traditionally would be seen as a positive for the stock market.
• 🚀 Despite the anticipation of a rate cut, the stock market's reaction has been mixed, with big tech companies experiencing a downturn.
• 📈 The stock market had a significant rise in 2022 due to the AI boom, but this has not translated to a broad market uptick.
• 💹 The current interest rate is over double the rate of inflation, which historically has been a precursor to economic downturns.
• 📊 Inflation rates have been falling, with some sectors like discretionary spending showing signs of deflation.
• 🏭 US manufacturing activity is contracting, with factory output dropping for most of the last 22 months.
• 💼 There's a growing concern about consumer spending and personal savings, with credit card delinquencies on the rise.
• 🏠 Housing market indicators show a slowdown, with house prices falling and mortgage rates decreasing.
• 📈 The AI sector has seen significant investment and growth, contrasting with the broader economic trends.
• ⏳ There's a risk that the Federal Reserve's actions may be too late to prevent an economic downturn, as they have been in the past with rate adjustments.

Q & A

When did the Federal Reserve last reduce interest rates before September 2024?

The Federal Reserve last reduced interest rates in April 2020, setting them straight down to 0%.

What was the market's initial reaction to the announcement of interest rate cuts in 2024?

The stock market initially celebrated the announcement of interest rate cuts, closing just below its all-time high, with a 19% increase since the start of 2024.

What happened to the stock market after the initial celebration of the interest rate cut announcement?

After the initial celebration, the stock market opened with big tech companies in the red, indicating a change in sentiment from the initial positive reaction.

How did the stock market perform in the first 9 months of 2022 when interest rates were increasing?

In the first 9 months of 2022, the stock market fell by 25% as interest rates increased to combat inflation.

What was the impact of AI advancements on the stock market in 2022?

AI advancements led to a significant increase in stocks of big tech and AI companies, with some experiencing growth of a few hundred percent overnight.

What is the current relationship between the Federal Reserve's interest rate and the inflation rate?

The current interest rate is over double the rate of inflation, with the interest rate at 5.5% and the inflation rate just below 2.5%.

What historical parallels does the script draw between the 2024 economic situation and previous economic events?

The script draws parallels with the economic situations in 1994 and during the financial crisis, noting similar interest rate to inflation rate ratios and market reactions.

What is the concern regarding the Federal Reserve's timing of interest rate adjustments according to the script?

The concern is that the Federal Reserve might be reducing rates too late, similar to their delayed response in increasing rates in 2022, which could exacerbate economic issues.

What economic indicators suggest potential trouble in the US economy according to the script?

Indicators include rising credit card delinquencies, low personal savings rates, deflation in discretionary spending, and a contracting manufacturing sector.

What does the script suggest could be the Fed's rationale for reducing interest rates in 2024?

The script suggests that the Fed might be reducing rates not from a position of strength but potentially in a panic mode to stop deflation and economic collapse due to over-tightening.

How does the script evaluate the Federal Reserve's projections for interest rates in 2024 and 2025?

The script evaluates the Federal Reserve's projections as 'shocking and abysmal,' suggesting that they have consistently been wrong and are currently over a year too late in reducing interest rates.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Anticipating Stock Market Reaction to Interest Rate Cuts

The paragraph discusses the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates for the first time since April 2020. It highlights the market's expectation of a stock market boom following the rate cut. However, the speaker, Sasha, offers a contrary view, suggesting that the market's optimism may not be justified. The paragraph also reflects on the market's performance in 2022 when rates increased, leading to a 25% drop, and contrasts it with the surge in AI-related stocks. The speaker questions whether the reasons for the rate cut are fundamentally different this time, which could lead to a different outcome.

05:00

📈 The Fed's Dilemma: Strength or Panic?

This paragraph delves into the possibility that the Federal Reserve might be reducing interest rates not from a position of strength but out of panic due to over-tightening. It discusses economic indicators such as inflation, discretionary spending, and housing prices, which suggest a potential economic downturn. The speaker points out that if the Fed reduces rates in a panic to prevent deflation and economic collapse, the rate cuts would be a reaction to the situation rather than a driver of economic activity. The paragraph also covers the current state of consumer spending, savings rates, and the potential for a deflationary spiral.

10:01

🏭 US Economic Reality Amidst AI Hype

The paragraph contrasts the hype around AI and technology stocks with the underlying economic struggles of the US. It discusses how AI companies are investing heavily in technology, driving up their stock prices, while the broader economy, particularly manufacturing, is contracting. The speaker criticizes the Federal Reserve for being out of touch with the real economic situation, focusing on overall numbers rather than detailed data. The paragraph also touches on the potential for a rapid increase in credit card delinquencies and the early signs of financial stress among consumers.

15:01

📉 Market Expectations vs. Economic Indicators

This paragraph addresses the market's expectation of a gradual reduction in interest rates and the Federal Reserve's projections. It contrasts the market's expectation of a soft landing with the speaker's view that the Fed's actions are too late and that the economy is already showing signs of trouble. The speaker argues that the Fed's historical pattern of delayed responses to economic changes suggests that they may be behind the curve again, and that the upcoming inflation data could push the Fed to act more aggressively than anticipated.

20:03

🚨 The Risks of Fed's Delayed Response

The final paragraph underscores the risks associated with the Federal Reserve's potential delayed response to economic signals. It suggests that the Fed's approach of waiting for clear evidence before acting could result in a missed opportunity to address economic challenges proactively. The speaker uses a metaphor of driving to illustrate the Fed's tendency to react late to economic indicators, which could lead to more significant problems down the line. The paragraph concludes with a note of caution about the upcoming months, given the current economic data and the Fed's track record.

Keywords

💡Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as 'the Fed,' is the central banking system of the United States. It plays a crucial role in implementing monetary policy, including interest rate adjustments. In the video, the Fed's decision to reduce interest rates for the first time since April 2020 is a central theme, with expectations that this will significantly impact the stock market.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are set by central banks like the Federal Reserve. They influence the economy by affecting the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses. In the script, the anticipation of the Fed reducing interest rates is expected to have a positive effect on the stock market, as historically lower rates can stimulate economic activity.

💡Stock Market

The stock market is a platform where shares of publicly traded companies are issued and traded. It is often seen as a barometer of economic health. The video discusses the stock market's potential reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with the expectation of a rise in stock prices.

💡Inflation

Inflation refers to the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The video highlights the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index, and its relation to interest rate decisions. The script suggests that a drop in inflation could prompt interest rate cuts.

💡Deflation

Deflation is the opposite of inflation, where prices fall, and the value of money increases. The video discusses the potential for deflation in certain sectors, such as discretionary spending, which could influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions.

💡AI Space

The AI space refers to the industry and technologies related to artificial intelligence. The script mentions how companies in the AI sector saw their stock prices soar due to the hype around AI advancements, contrasting with the broader stock market's performance.

💡Discretionary Spending

Discretionary spending refers to consumer spending on non-essential items or services. The video script notes a decline in discretionary spending, which is indicative of economic slowdown and can influence corporate earnings and stock market performance.

💡Credit Card Delinquencies

Credit card delinquencies are instances where credit card payments are overdue. The video uses this metric to illustrate the financial stress on consumers, suggesting that an increase in delinquencies could be a sign of economic hardship and potentially lead to a decrease in consumer spending.

💡Manufacturing Activity Index

The Manufacturing Activity Index is an economic indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector. The video cites the ISM Manufacturing activity index falling below 50, indicating contraction in the sector, which is a sign of economic slowdown.

💡FOMC

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a part of the Federal Reserve System responsible for making decisions about monetary policy. The video discusses the FOMC's projections and expectations regarding interest rates, which are critical for understanding the Fed's stance on economic conditions.

💡Soft Landing

A soft landing refers to a situation where an economy slows down without falling into a recession after a period of growth. The video questions whether the Fed's rate cuts are a sign of a soft landing or if they are a reaction to a more severe economic downturn.

Highlights

Federal Reserve expected to reduce interest rates for the first time since April 2020.

Stock market initially celebrated the anticipated rate cut, but later showed uncertainty.

In August 2022, the stock market fell 25% as interest rates rose to combat inflation.

AI and tech stocks surged significantly following the launch of ChatGPT.

Expectations are that small companies and those with debt will benefit from falling interest rates.

The reason for falling interest rates now is fundamentally different from the reasons in the past.

PC inflation number fell to just below 2.5%, while the upper bound of the FED interest rate is at 5.5%.

The last time interest rates were over double the rate of inflation was at the start of the financial crisis.

In 1994, interest rates went up due to market uncertainty, not because of inflation.

The stock market's performance after the 1994 rate hike was the best in history, increasing by 200%.

The Fed's rate cuts have historically been reactions to market conditions rather than proactive moves.

There are concerns that the Fed may be reducing rates from a position of panic rather than strength.

US inflation data shows signs of deflation, with discretionary spending falling into deflation.

Credit card usage is up, and personal savings rate is at an all-time low, indicating financial strain on consumers.

Food inflation has remained stagnant, suggesting it may be the next category to experience deflation.

Credit card delinquencies are increasing, indicating that consumers are struggling to make payments.

Manufacturing activity is contracting, with factory output dropping for 21 out of the last 22 months.

The Fed's projections show a lack of consensus on the future direction of interest rates.

The market is currently expecting a very slow reduction in interest rates and a soft landing.

There is a risk of the US economy experiencing a downturn if inflation continues to decrease.

Transcripts

hey guys it's Sasha in 2 weeks on

September 18th the Federal Reserve will

reduce interest rates for the first time

since April 2020 when interest rates

were sent straight down to 0% and

everybody is expecting the stock market

to go to the moon when the rate starts

dropping but is that what's actually

going to happen is the stock market

about to go bananas is it about to go

jubilant well I want to share a slightly

different take when Jerome pal announced

that the time has come to cut interest

rates in Jackson Hall a few days ago the

stock market began celebrating and

popping the champagne last Friday the

stock market closed just below its

all-time high up over 19% since the

start of 2024 today when the stock

market opened it's suddenly not looking

as rosy what happened all the big tech

companies on the left are red throughout

August the stock market was expecting

the opposite of what happened in 2022

when interest rates started going up not

just in August for the whole of this

year really in the first 9 months of

2022 the stock market fell 25% as

interest rates started going up to

combat inflation then chat GPT arrived

here and big Tech and any company in the

AI space went up a few hundred%

overnight because everybody immediately

made the mental leap from a chatbot that

doesn't suck to the world switching

everything to General artificial

intelligence sometime in the next year

so those stocks absolutely exploded and

the stock market on average went up as a

result but those companies went up

massively but the rest of the stock

market has still gone absolutely nowhere

in the two years since that drop in 2022

so now the expectation is that the

reverse is going to happen rates are

going to start falling small companies

are going to benefit massively companies

with debt are going to benefit the cost

of borrowing will go down stocks are

going to go to the Moon investors will

begin flooding money back into those

companies because bond yields will drop

and everyone will want to be part of

this new massive stock market explosion

and the stock market is going to explode

stocks will go up 30 or 40% but the

important thing to think about is this

is the reason why interest rates are

going down the inverse of the reason why

they went up in the first place or is

the reason this time around fundament Al

different because if the reason for

rates falling now is very different then

the outcome might also be very different

instead of being the inverse of what

happened last time a few days ago the PC

inflation number came in that's the

fed's preferred inflation metric and it

fell to just below 2.5% at the same time

the upper bound of the FED interest rate

right now is at 5.5% so the interest

rate at the moment is sitting at over

double the rate of inflation 3% higher

the last time this happened was at the

start of the financial crisis when

inflation was also around 2.5% and the

interest rate was exactly the same as

now but the time before that it also

happened in 1994 and the situation 1994

was very different inflation was at just

3% and before the rate hike started

inflation rates were also sat at 3% they

were the same in a year and a half the

interest rate doubled to 6% but while

interest rates were going up inflation

was actually going down interest rates

went up and stayed up in 1994 because

there was a sudden increase in Market

uncertainty over long-term interest

rates a whole bunch of stuff going on

bond yield discrepancy between different

time Horizons but

in7 interest rates went down because the

Fed was panicking as the financial

crisis hit this is a chart of the US

federal funds rate and you can see that

starting in August 2007 the interest

rate went down to zero pretty quickly as

Banks were collapsing the same exact

thing happened in 2000 when the dot

bubble burst and there's plenty of other

examples before that but after the 1994

increases the interest rate never really

came down the interest rate was a lot

higher than the rate of inflation all

the way from 1994 to 2000 and this

period is also the best performance

period in stock market history the stock

market went up 200% in those 6 years

when the rides came down in a sudden

Panic the stock market lost 50% each

time because the raid Cuts were reacting

to the market not the other way around

the big question now is is the Fed

reducing rates from a position of

strength like in 1995 you know

everything is great soft Landing

achieved the economy is booming interest

rates don't need to stay as high as they

are right now they can just dip a little

bit lower everything is going to be

great that's the impression that Wall

Street has right now it seems that's the

message that the FED is selling that is

the what the media is printing every

single day but what if the truth is that

the FED is now panicking that they have

kept rates too high for too long what if

they realize that in a month or two

month time in July's inflation data we

saw that all discretionary spending put

together fell into deflation for the

first time in a very very long time I

went back a few decades and I couldn't

find the last time that this happened in

the last 6 months food inflation has sat

at 0% and might be the next category to

dip into deflation house prices in the

US fell in June the latest data that

just came out after being flat in May

mortgage rates have fallen half a

percent in the last month as interest

rate cuts are approaching retail prices

on food and clothes appear to have

dropped at the end of August with true

inflation showing a 1.2% rate of

inflation in the US at the moment the

market seems to be expecting a 1990

style rebound the consensus is that

we're just at the start the Fed will be

reducing rates from position of strength

the AI is only just getting started

everything is going to blow up it is the

good times soft landing and all that but

that sentiment can change pretty quickly

if the First Rate cut is just 25 basis

points then the impact of the rate cuts

through to the end of the year will be

relatively small and only come through

in terms of limited effects starting

sometime next year in the meantime

unemployment rate has started increasing

very fast it's up to 4.3% now we'll get

the next update for August in a few days

wage growth in the US is slowing down

while at the same time the average

number of hours worked is going down

every month oil and gas are both trading

lower than this time last year so

there's a chance that energy inflation

will remain flat or go negative in the

next few months so what happens if

instead of the FED reducing rates from a

position of strength the FED is actually

going to reduce rates fast in panic mode

to stop deflation to stop the economy

collapsing because they Mass ly

overtightened well if that happens then

the rate drops themselves are no longer

the driving force of what's happening in

the economy they become a reaction an

attempt at mitigating the situation if

this was a football game then instead of

attacking and trying to score with an

intricate play the FED would suddenly be

defending deep standing on their own

goal line here is what's actually

happening in the US economy people have

run out of money credit card usage has

gone right up after covid and at the

same time the personal savings rate is

the lowest it's ever been except during

the financial crash down at 2.9% in July

and falling sharply inflation and poor

economic decisions by the government

mean that people are suffering this is

not the roast tinted stuff that

the FED talks about or that you read in

the media this is the harsh reality the

real data of what's happening and what

happens when they're fed over Titans so

now that people have run out of money

they have stopped spending I talked two

weeks ago about how all discretion

spending is now in deflation cars TVs

Furniture appliances clothes toys

everything that is not absolutely

necessary to buy is now in deflation

prices on those things are falling this

is not the same thing as disinflation

disinflation is when prices are still

growing but the rate at which they are

growing is reducing right they're not

growing as quickly no right now the

prices on discretionary spending in the

US are falling because people don't have

the money to replace their old car or

their old TV with a new one so demand

for those things is dropping and the

companies making cars and TVs are having

to drop prices to keep selling now we're

seeing a deflationary pattern emerging

food the PC index for food hasn't moved

in the last 6 months neither has the CPI

this is important because food is next

in line of what you would expect to

start falling in price in typical

deflation Spike because the only other

things available the only things that

are not part of the discretionary group

are things like rent and mortgages

energy and finance payments and things

like insurance no finances things like

credit cards loans car payments stuff

like that before you go defaulting on

your credit card or stop paying your

electricity bill you will cut back on

food spending that's how it goes you'll

start replacing more expensive food

items with cheaper ones you'll buy

chicken instead of steak you'll buy more

grains and potato and Less meat so as a

result we'll probably see the effect of

food spending in PC Data before we see

it in CPI data because CPI data shows

you the change in the price of

individual things it only changes the

weights the distribution of how much

those things go into the overall total

of individual items once a year in

January so if prices are things stay the

same but less people are buying meat and

more people are buying potato you won't

see that reflected in CPI data but you

should see it come through in pce data

because pce tries to track the total

spending in the different categories so

total spending on food may go negative

before we see the prices go down as a

reaction at the same time you should see

delinquencies begin increasing on less

important Financial payments car

payments and mortgages are relatively

protected insulated people don't want to

lose their home on their car right but

people don't care as much about getting

a $30 late payment fee on their credit

card if they don't have the money to pay

the monthly bill and they have to choose

to not pay something and what do we have

here look what's happening with credit

card delinquencies 11% of credit card

balances in the US are now 3 months

behind on payments the last time there

was a spike like this was during the

financial crash notice how mortgage

delinquencies have not started going up

at all it's the orange line they started

going up quite fast in 2007 and 2008

because mortgages were the thing that

crashed the whole system they were the

front runner but if there is a general

Financial downturn scenario a general

Financial mown you only expect to see

mortgages begin ticking up later on

because people stop paying other things

first but look at the yellow line on

these two charts the yellowy Orange Line

see how the number on the left people

who go one month behind on their

mortgage is creeping up but the line on

the right is not that's how many people

are 3 months behind so people are

struggling sometimes their monthly

payment bounces now a lot more than it

used to or people don't have the money

to pay that monthly payment so they

might go a few days behind but then they

go and work it out they go find the

money somewhere they take on more debt

maybe borrow on that credit card take

out a loan something like that maybe

they spend less on food and on

discretionary items maybe they have to

wait until the next paycheck arrives but

then when that happens they do go and

get that mortgage payment paid because

it's really important so the number who

missed the first payment has doubled in

the last few months but so far those

people are figuring out how to stop it

getting worse how to stop it rolling

further towards repossession territory

also mortgages benefit from being

somewhat sheltered from inflation if you

don't buy a new house if you took out

your 30-year mortgage before the

inflation happened then your mortgage

payment stays the same while everything

else goes up 20 30 or 50% or whatever so

relatively speaking making that mortgage

payment is well in a way easier because

it just stays the same you can budget

for it but what happens if food dips

into negative territory in the next

three or four months what happens if

Finance payments and energy also follow

and what happens if then people who

missed the first payment on their

mortgage don't suddenly have a way of

figuring it out and you know begin

missing the second and the third payment

well the FED is going to do a U-turn and

they're going to be dropping that

interest rate very very fast but the

problem is going to be that the damage

has already been done it's a bit like

building a shed and then noticing that

your wood has completely rotten and at

that point deciding well maybe we should

apply some treatment to the wood you

know to stop it rotting to stop it

getting worse and yeah sure okay if you

do that maybe you'll save yourself a few

extra months but the damage is already

done it's already broken and maybe you

should have done that treatment a year

and a half ago instead this morning the

ISM Manufacturing activity index came in

at 47.2 below expectations again and

most importantly below 50 again this

means that us manufacturing is

Contracting fact Factory output is

dropping and has been dropping for 21

out of the last 22 months do you know

when it started dropping in October

2022 right after inflation shot up the

Fed was way too late dealing it with

back then and then the stock market fell

25% from November 2022 the stock market

has been going up because of AI but the

reality is that the US economy is

struggling ELO mus just posted on

Twitter that xai his new AI company just

launched their colossal a superc

computer it has 100,000 h100 graphics

cards and will double in size in the

next few months including all the

peripherals that's something like $4

billion worth of graphics cards bought

by just one AI startup and they're going

to spend that much again and then

there's open AI Google Microsoft Apple

Tesla and dozens of others doing the

same exact thing when you add up all of

those numbers it is insane and they have

converted into the huge stock market

increase for AI companies that we're

seeing this insane bubble and in exactly

the same time since that started since

late

2022 factories in the US have been in

Decline every single month except for

one and regular people have run out of

money the FED has been too busy looking

at overall numbers and not understanding

the detail there's not even any detail

in pce data which is their preferred

metric you can't even go and dive into

any of the subcomponents the overall

numbers have been masked by the AI hype

wave at the moment the majority expect

the FED to only cut rates by a quarter

of a percent at the September meeting

the market is pricing in a 70%

likelihood that the interest rate will

only drop by 1% or less by the end of

this year and there are three meetings

in total before the year ends so the

expectations that at each of those

meetings it's only going to be a very

small drop so the market is currently

expecting a very slow reduction in

interest rates the latest projection

materials from the fomc from the June

meeting show that the majority of the

members expected the rates to stay above

5% at the end of 2024 four of those

people thought that the rate would not

come down at all this year in June two

months ago and then almost all of the

fomc members said that they expect the

rate to be above 4% at the end of 2025

at the end of next year this is

incredible it's shocking it is abysmal

it's shocking and abysmal because this

is clearly showing that the Federal

Reserve has no idea what it is

that they are doing again they are

saying they're showing you what they

think is going to happen I have

absolutely no idea how just a few weeks

ago those tweo Dums could reasonably

expect to not need any rate drops at all

this year and hardly any next year I

don't understand how anybody who has any

brain cells in their head who

understands the most basic economic

principles can be so exceptionally wrong

I don't get it then again those same

idiots back in December 2021 thought

that interest rates would not need to go

up above 1% in 2022 remember inflation

at that December meeting in December

2021 was already at 7% and a year later

instead of interest rates sitting below

1% the interest rate was already at over

4% I keep seeing CNBC and the YouTube

Finance space listen to every single

word that Jerome Powell says as though

it actually matters they cling on to

every single word oh was J own power

slightly more hawkish or dovish or maybe

parsh whatever or did you notice he used

this word instead of that word oh my God

this is so important and that means that

maybe interest rates are going to go

down slightly faster or slightly slower

every single word is so important none

of that matters Jerome power in the FED

are 100% completely full of just

like they were a year ago just like they

were two years ago just like they were

late in 2022 with increasing rates by

over a year they are once again over a

year too late reducing interest rates

and just because right now everybody's

expecting a slow reduction and a soft

Landing doesn't doesn't mean jack

if unemployment creeps up towards 5% if

inflation numbers go to 2% but don't

stop there and keep on going down

towards deflation the FED is going to

have no choice it doesn't matter what

Jerome Powell said it doesn't matter

what they're thinking we're in September

right now and in 2 weeks we're going to

get the August inflation data right now

the overall inflation level is at 2.9%

August inflation last year went up 0.5%

month on month and in September last

year it went up 0.4% month-to month if

inflation for August and September is

around 0% then inflation in September

the month we are in right now is already

at 2% so the FED has been waiting for

evidence of when they should maybe start

cutting interest rates and the first

month in which they actually start doing

it inflation is maybe already probably

already sitting at around 2% it's a bit

like driving down Road at 80 M an hour

and seeing a red light ahead at a busy

intersection the way that the FED drives

is this you keep going at 80 M an hour

you do not slow down you tell all the

passengers that you might need to

accelerate to 100 m hour to make sure

that you get to the red traffic light a

little bit faster to show them that you

really mean business and then when you

are exactly level with the red traffic

light as you are entering the

intersection

still going at 80 mph only then you

start pressing the brake pedal but you

do it very gently just a 25 basis point

drop you don't want to press it too hard

you know because it might be

uncomfortable for the passengers you

don't want that so you just plow right

through the busy intersection through

the red light at 80 M an hour and Jerome

pow who is the driver says well we had

to get to the red light first before

taking action that's a mandate right it

was impossible possible to know 200 yard

earlier that we should slow down

absolutely nobody could have seen it

coming what if I pressed the break too

early and we didn't get to the traffic

lights at all the next few months are

now very very risky because the FED

completely up there's a chance

that the US economy pulls another rabbit

out of a hat it's happened before it

could happen again but the data is just

not looking good and it's incredibly

frustrating because this was extremely

predictable it was incredibly obvious

and it didn't have to happen