Zakaria says Trump’s rise is not a fluke, and there’s one critical issue behind it

Summary

The script explores the United States' ability to control inflation without causing a recession, a rare achievement lauded by experts like Jerome Powell and Alan Blinder. Despite this economic success, the Democratic Party struggles to capitalize on it in the polls, with Donald Trump maintaining a competitive position. The narrative expands to Europe, highlighting the rise of right-wing populism in countries like Germany and the Netherlands, driven primarily by concerns over immigration. The persistence of populism, fueled by a backlash against globalism and elite liberalism, signals its continued relevance on the political landscape.

Takeaways

• 😇 Bismarck's quote about America's good fortune reflects a global perception of the country's ability to overcome challenges.
• 🌟 The US is currently achieving a rare economic feat: reducing inflation rapidly without causing a deep recession.
• 📉 Alan Blinder notes that historically, the US has managed a 'soft landing' like this only once in the past 60 years.
• 🏆 Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is praised for his policy balance during challenging economic times.
• 🚀 Despite economic success, the incumbent Democrats are not gaining the expected political advantage.
• 📊 Polls show that Donald Trump is still favored over Kamala Harris for handling the economy, even if by a reduced margin.
• 🔄 Rising inequality, a long-standing issue, has recently shown signs of abating.
• 🗳️ The upcoming election is not expected to be decided based on economic issues, but rather on other factors.
• 🌍 The rise of right-wing populism in Germany and other Western countries is a significant political trend.
• 🛂 Immigration politics is a key factor in the rise of populist parties, as seen in Germany and the Netherlands.

Q & A

Who is Otto von Bismarck and what is his reputed statement about the United States?

Otto von Bismarck was a great German statesman. He is reputed to have said that God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America, suggesting that the country has an uncanny ability to fare well despite challenges.

What does the term 'soft landing' refer to in the context of the US economy?

In the context of the US economy, 'soft landing' refers to a situation where inflation is reduced significantly and rapidly without causing a deep recession, which is considered a challenging economic feat.

How often has the United States achieved a soft landing according to Alan Blinder?

Alan Blinder, the former Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman, points out that using strict definitions, the United States has achieved a soft landing only once before in the past 60 years.

What is Jerome Powell's role in the context of the US economy's current state?

Jerome Powell is the chairman of the Federal Reserve. He is credited with getting the balance of policy right through treacherous times, which has contributed to the US economy's current state of low inflation and low unemployment.

What are some of the positive economic indicators mentioned for the US economy?

The US economy currently has low inflation, low unemployment, a boom in manufacturing, and dominance in technologies of the future like AI and gene editing.

Why might the incumbent Democrats not be benefiting as expected from the US economy's good fortune?

Despite the US economy's positive indicators, the incumbent Democrats are not gaining the expected advantage, possibly due to other factors such as political polarization and the influence of right-wing populism.

Who leads in the polls when it comes to handling the economy, and how does this compare to previous elections?

In most polls, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris on the question of who would better handle the economy, though by less than he led Joe Biden. This is in contrast to the standings of Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden at similar points in their races against Trump.

What is the significance of the rise of the right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD)?

The rise of the AfD is significant as it indicates a shift in German politics, with the party poised to become the second political party after the center-right CDU. This rise is largely attributed to the politics of immigration.

How have centrist parties in Denmark managed to curb the appeal of the populist right?

Centrist parties in Denmark have adopted a very tough line on immigration and assimilation, which has been effective in curbing the appeal of the populist right and keeping it at bay.

What strategy did the center-right party of Donald Tusk use in Poland to counter the populist right?

The center-right party of Donald Tusk fought its election in Poland not on immigration but over the future of democracy and its membership in the European Union, focusing on popular positions within the country.

Why is right-wing populism considered a significant and enduring force in politics?

Right-wing populism is considered significant and enduring because it is fueled by a deep backlash against the economic, political, and cultural openness of the last few decades, and the urban elites it spawned, as seen in various countries including the United States.

Outlines

00:00

🌟 Economic Fortune and Political Challenges in the U.S.

This paragraph discusses the United States' seemingly miraculous economic performance, including low inflation and unemployment, a manufacturing boom, and advancements in AI and gene editing, despite rising inequality. It questions whether the incumbent Democrats can capitalize on this prosperity. The script references historical economic data, noting that the U.S. has rarely achieved a soft landing like the current one. It also highlights the Federal Reserve's role, particularly Jerome Powell's, in navigating these challenges. The paragraph contrasts the economic success with the Democrats' lack of electoral advantage, suggesting that the upcoming election will be influenced more by issues like immigration and the rise of right-wing populism than economic performance.

05:01

🌍 The Global Rise of Right-Wing Populism

The second paragraph expands on the theme of right-wing populism, noting its global reach and impact on traditional political parties. It points out that even countries like Turkey and India have seen leaders align with anti-liberal, cosmopolitan sentiments. The paragraph specifically calls out the Republican Party's shift away from figures like George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, indicating a significant change in the party's identity. It suggests that Trump's influence, whether he wins or loses, will persist, as right-wing populism is deeply rooted in a backlash against recent decades of economic, political, and cultural openness. The paragraph concludes by directing viewers to a Washington Post column for further reading on this topic.

Keywords

💡Providence

In the context of the video, 'providence' refers to the protective care or guidance believed to be provided by God. The script attributes America's continued economic and political success, despite challenges, to a special providence. The term emphasizes how the U.S. often overcomes obstacles in unexpected ways, surprising the world.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the general increase in prices and the fall in the purchasing value of money. The video mentions how the United States has managed to reduce inflation quickly without triggering a recession, a rare achievement. This successful management of inflation is highlighted as a key factor in the country’s recent economic performance.

💡Soft landing

A 'soft landing' is an economic term referring to a situation where a country slows down inflation without causing a major recession. In the video, Alan Blinder points out that the U.S. has rarely achieved this, underscoring the significance of the current economic situation. This concept is tied to Jerome Powell's effective leadership of the Federal Reserve.

💡Right-wing populism

Right-wing populism refers to political movements that emphasize nationalism, anti-immigration policies, and a rejection of liberal elites. The video discusses the rise of right-wing populist parties in Germany and other European countries, illustrating how these movements are gaining traction by opposing mainstream immigration policies.

💡Alternative for Germany (AfD)

The AfD is a far-right political party in Germany that has recently gained significant political momentum. The video mentions that it won its first state election since World War II and could become Germany's second-largest party, driven largely by its stance on immigration. This highlights the resurgence of right-wing populism in Europe.

💡Immigration

Immigration is the movement of people into a country to live permanently. It is a central theme in the video, particularly in the discussion of right-wing populism. In many countries, including the United States and Germany, immigration has become a polarizing issue, fueling populist movements that oppose current policies.

💡Kamala Harris

Kamala Harris is the current Vice President of the United States and a key figure in the upcoming election. The video notes that she has improved the Democratic Party's polling numbers but still trails in some critical measures. Her ability to challenge Donald Trump on issues like immigration is highlighted as an important part of the election narrative.

💡Donald Trump

Donald Trump is a former U.S. president and the leading figure of right-wing populism in the country. The video discusses his continued popularity and influence, especially on issues like the economy and immigration. Despite his controversial leadership, he remains a central figure in U.S. politics, with the potential to win again.

💡Economic inequality

Economic inequality refers to the uneven distribution of wealth and income. The video notes that although inequality has been rising for decades in the U.S., it has recently started to abate. This reduction in inequality is framed as part of the broader economic success that is not yet fully benefiting the Democratic Party in polls.

💡European Union

The European Union (EU) is a political and economic union of European countries. In the video, Poland's political situation is discussed, where a centrist party ran a campaign focused on preserving Poland's membership in the EU. This reflects the broader political debate in Europe about national sovereignty versus integration with the EU.

Highlights

Bismarck's reputed quote about America's special providence captures a global sentiment.

The United States is achieving a rare economic feat: reducing inflation without a deep recession.

Alan Blinder notes the U.S. has only achieved a soft landing once in the past 60 years.

Jerome Powell's policy balance is praised for navigating treacherous economic times.

The U.S. economy currently enjoys low inflation, low unemployment, and a manufacturing boom.

Technological advancements in AI and gene editing contribute to America's economic dominance.

Rising inequality, a long-standing issue, has recently shown signs of abating.

Despite economic successes, the incumbent Democrats are not gaining expected political advantages.

Polls show Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris on economic handling, despite a narrow margin.

The political race remains tied, with Harris's standing lagging behind past Democratic candidates.

Trump's potential to outperform current polling is a wildcard due to historical polling errors.

The election is not primarily about economics, contrary to popular belief.

The rise of right-wing populism in Germany challenges the traditional political landscape.

The AfD's success is largely attributed to the politics of immigration.

Mainstream parties risk being outflanked by populist right on immigration issues.

Centrist parties in Denmark have successfully combated populism with tough immigration policies.

In Poland, the center-right party focused on democracy and EU membership to counter populism.

Immigration remains a core concern for U.S. voters, as per Wall Street Journal polls.

Kamala Harris has effectively countered some of Trump's appeal on immigration issues.

The Trump phenomenon and right-wing populism are not fleeting; they reflect a deep societal backlash.

Right-wing populism is a global trend, evident in Europe, Turkey, India, and the Republican Party's shift.

Transcripts

The great German statesman

Otto von

Bismarck is reputed

to have once said

that God

has a special providence

for fools, drunkards,

and the United States of America.

He might never have actually said that,

but it captures

the sense

that many around

the world have at America's

continuing ability

to surprise on the upside.

In the words

of a businessman friend of mine.

But it remains unclear as to

whether the incumbent party,

the Democrats, will be able to benefit

from this good fortune.

The latest evidence

for its special providence

is that the United States appears

to be doing the near-impossible,

getting inflation down far and fast

without triggering a deep recession.

The former Federal Reserve

Vice-Chairman, Alan

Blinder, points out

that using strict definitions,

the United States has been able

to achieve such a soft landing

only once before in the past 60 years.

In recent remarks, Jerome Powell,

the chairman of the fed, has all

but declared victory

and he deserves considerable praise

for getting the balance of policy

about right

through some very treacherous times.

The US economy

currently has low inflation,

low unemployment,

a boom in manufacturing and dominance

and technologies of the future

like AI and gene editing.

Even rising inequality,

which has soared for

decades, has recently abated.

And yet,

these factors are

not giving the incumbent Democrats

the advantage one might have expected.

In most polls, Donald Trump

continues to lead Kamala

Harris on the question

of who would better handle

the economy, though by less

than he led Joe Biden.

More broadly,

the race remains virtually tied.

While Harris had improved on

Biden's disastrous standing,

her standing in the race, both

nationally and in swing states

lags behind where Hillary Clinton and Joe

Biden stood at this point

in their races against Trump.

When you consider that Trump

could do better than he is

in current polling,

which happened due

to polling errors in both 2016 and 2020,

the race remains a toss up.

In the end, as I've pointed out,

this election will not be

fought over economics.

The most recent reminder

of the political mood in

the Western world comes from Germany.

For many years,

even as right wing

populism surged elsewhere,

it did not take hold in Germany

until the last year or so.

The small right

wing populist party,

the alternative for Germany,

remained marginalized.

But it now looks

neither small

nor likely to be marginalized

for much longer.

It won one recent German state election,

a first for a far right party

since the Nazi era came a very close

second in another state

and is vying for the top spot

in a third state.

It looks poised

to become Germany's

second political party

after the center right CDU.

As with many right wing populist parties,

the AfD

rise can be largely

credited to the politics of immigration.

The story is a familiar one,

as long as mainstream political parties

turn a blind eye

to the seismic shifts

taking place relating to immigration.

They are in danger of being outflanked

by the populist right.

In the Netherlands, Gerhard Filters

has also gone

from being an extremist firebrand

with whom few would ally

to the leading political player

and kingmaker

in the recent Dutch elections.

There are strategies

to blunt the populist right's appeal.

In Denmark,

the centrist parties

have adopted

a very tough line

on immigration and assimilation.

Tough enough to be criticized

by many mainstream politicians.

But the result has been

that populism,

which flared up in past elections,

seems at bay in that country, and Poland.

The center right party of Donald Tusk

fought its election not on immigration,

but over the future of democracy

in Poland

and its membership in the European Union.

Both popular positions in that country.

In the United States, immigration remains

a core concern,

and Wall Street Journal polls.

It was either close to the top

or at the very top of voters concerns.

Both nationally and in swing states.

Kamala Harris has been able

to effectively

blunt some of Trump's appeal

on this issue by pointing out

that he squashed

a tough border protection bill,

mostly written by Republicans.

But she may need to do more.

Many commentators believe

that the Trump

phenomenon is a fluke, fueled

by his celebrity

and almost cult like following.

Some of that is true,

but right wing populism

isn't going anywhere.

Fueled as

it is by a deep backlash

against the economic,

political and cultural openness

of the last few decades

and the urban elites it spawned.

Look at Europe.

Look even at countries

like Turkey and India,

where leaders have allied themselves

with those opposed

to liberal, cosmopolitan elites.

Look at the Republican Party,

which now has no home for people

like George W Bush, Mitt

Romney, Liz

Cheney, Paul Ryan,

and even Mitch McConnell.

Leaders who once defined the party

Trump could win.

But even if he loses, his movement

and right wing populism are here to stay.

Go to

cnn.com/fareed, for

a link to my Washington

Post column this week.