Avoid These 4 Costly NFL DFS Mistakes

Summary

In this video, Jordan Chan from Sabersim outlines the top four mistakes NFL DFS players make with their lineups and how to avoid them. He emphasizes the importance of playing the right contests, especially those with lower entry fees and smaller prize pools, to compete against less skilled players. Chan also advises against overusing outdated lineup rules and overleveraging positions on individual players. Lastly, he stresses the significance of late swapping to adapt to new information and enhance ROI. The video aims to help viewers optimize their DFS strategies for a profitable NFL season.

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Q & A

What is the main focus of the video by Jordan Chan?

The main focus of the video is to help NFL DFS players avoid common mistakes with their lineups and to provide strategies for a more effective contest portfolio and lineup building.

Why should NFL DFS players avoid allocating too much of their bankroll to expensive contests?

Allocating too much of the bankroll to expensive contests can condense the number of entries and increase variance, reducing the chances of winning a big prize. It's better to enter lower dollar contests to increase the number of unique lineups and play against softer competition.

What is the advantage of playing contests with lower entry fees and smaller prize pools?

Playing contests with lower entry fees and smaller prize pools allows players to enter more unique lineups, reducing variance and increasing the chances of winning. Additionally, these contests often have less skilled competition, providing a strategic advantage.

How does overusing outdated lineup rules of thumb affect lineup construction in NFL DFS?

Overusing outdated lineup rules of thumb can lead to less optimal lineups due to the assumption that players are uncorrelated and score their average projections all the time, which is not true. This can result in sacrificing projected points or ROI in the lineup builds.

What is the importance of not overleveraging positions on individual players in NFL DFS?

Overleveraging positions on individual players can lead to a narrow focus and increased variance, which is risky. It's important to maintain a diversified portfolio of lineups to ensure a balanced approach and not rely too heavily on a single player's performance.

Why is it crucial for NFL DFS players to late swap their lineups?

Late swapping allows players to react to any changes in player news, inactives, and injury reports. It also enables them to adjust their lineups based on the actual performance of players in the early games, which can significantly impact the outcome of the contests.

How does SaberSim's late swap feature provide an edge in NFL DFS?

SaberSim's late swap feature provides an edge by running contest simulations that take into account both the changing projections for afternoon games and the actual performance of players in the early games, allowing for optimal lineup adjustments.

What is the recommended approach to applying personal takes on players in NFL DFS lineup building?

When applying personal takes on players, it's recommended to do so in a balanced way that maintains diversification across the lineups. This can be achieved by adjusting the minimum and maximum exposures to fit the leverage curve according to the player's projected performance and personal opinion.

How does Jordan Chan suggest players should approach contest entry in NFL DFS?

Jordan Chan suggests that players should first focus on entering contests with lower entry fees and smaller prize pools to maximize the number of unique lineups and play against softer competition. After that, they can take a few 'lottery shot' tickets at higher-priced contests for fun.

What is the significance of the leverage curve in managing NFL DFS lineups?

The leverage curve is significant as it helps in balancing the exposure to individual players across the lineups. A smooth leverage curve indicates a diversified approach, which is crucial for managing risk and maintaining a broad range of potential outcomes in the contests.