The way it ALL ENDS: the five endgames that all women face

Summary

Dr. Orion Taraban discusses the modern sexual marketplace and its implications for women, highlighting the phenomenon of female hypergamy and the increasing difficulty for women to find partners as they age. The talk explores the traditional gender roles in courtship, the changing dynamics between men and women, and the potential outcomes for women based on their choices and societal trends. Dr. Taraban suggests that most women will end up with a suitable partner, but not necessarily their first choice, leading to potential marital dissatisfaction.

Takeaways

• 📉 The current sexual marketplace sees fewer people marrying, entering relationships, or even hooking up than ever before, with female hypergamy being a primary driver.
• 🎓 Childless women under 30 in the West are outperforming men in education and earnings, contributing to the trend of women 'dating up'.
• 💍 Traditional gender roles persist, with men expected to make the first move in relationships, a norm that has not evolved with changing societal views.
• 👩‍🦳 As women age, their sexual market value decreases, leading to a smaller pool of suitable partners and a potential mismatch with their expectations.
• 🔄 The dynamics of the sexual marketplace change at 30, when men's sexual market value typically exceeds women's for the first time.
• 🏆 High-performing men have more options and may be reluctant to commit to one person, creating a paradox where women's demands become more expensive over time.
• 🤔 There are five possible end games for women in the current sexual marketplace, ranging from securing a high-value man to remaining unpartnered.
• 🛍️ Women's reluctance to lower their 'price tags' (expectations) makes it less likely for them to secure a high-value man as time goes on.
• 👜 The analogy of designer bags suggests that most women are not in the 'one percent' and thus less likely to 'afford' or attract the top 10 percent of men.
• 🧍‍♀️ Approximately 25% of women are unmarried by 40, and the trend suggests that this figure may continue to rise, with many women unintentionally remaining childless.
• 🌟 The key to navigating the sexual marketplace is adaptability; women who adjust their expectations to the changing conditions are more likely to secure the relationship they desire.

Q & A

What is the main topic of Dr. Orion Taraban's talk?

The main topic of Dr. Orion Taraban's talk is the current state of the sexual marketplace, focusing on the phenomenon of fewer people getting married, entering relationships, or even hooking up, and the implications of female hypergamy and the changing dynamics between men and women in the context of relationships.

What is the significance of the statement 'it all ends' in the title of the talk?

The statement 'it all ends' refers to the potential outcomes or 'end games' for women in the context of the sexual marketplace, particularly as they age and face the consequences of the existing dynamics between men and women in relationships.

Why does the speaker mention that fewer people are getting married, entering into relationships, or hooking up than ever before?

The speaker mentions this trend to highlight the unprecedented lows in relationship formation and to explore the reasons behind it, including female hypergamy and the success of young women relative to young men, which affects the dynamics of the sexual marketplace.

What is 'female hypergamy' as discussed in the script?

Female hypergamy refers to the tendency of women to seek partners who are of a higher status, earning, or educational level than themselves. This is a significant factor in the current dynamics of the sexual marketplace, as it contributes to the challenge of finding suitable partners, especially for high-performing young women.

How does the speaker describe the role of women as 'gatekeepers of sex' and men as 'gatekeepers of commitment'?

The speaker describes women as 'gatekeepers of sex' because, traditionally and in most cultures, women have more control over when and with whom they engage in sexual relationships. Men are referred to as 'gatekeepers of commitment' because they are typically expected to make the first move towards a more committed relationship, such as marriage.

What is the significance of the age of 30 in the context of the sexual marketplace value (SMV) for men and women?

The age of 30 is significant because it is the point at which the average male's sexual marketplace value exceeds that of the average woman's for the first time. This shift in SMV affects the dynamics of relationship formation and the perceived 'cost' of the 'offer' men make to women.

What are the five possible 'end games' for women as discussed in the script?

The five possible 'end games' for women are: (A) keeping their standards high and securing a high-value man, (B) lowering their standards to secure a high-value man, (C) keeping their standards high but settling for a lower-value man, (D) lowering their standards but still settling for a lower-value man, and (E) neither securing nor settling, resulting in remaining unpartnered.

Why does the speaker suggest that scenario A (keeping price tags high and securing a high-value man) is the least likely outcome?

Scenario A is considered the least likely outcome because men with high sexual marketplace value have many options and are unlikely to 'settle' for one woman when they can have multiple potential partners. Additionally, as women age and their SMV decreases, the 'offer' from men remains the same, making it increasingly expensive and less attractive for high-value men to commit.

What is the speaker's perspective on the trend of women remaining unmarried and childless?

The speaker acknowledges that the trend of women remaining unmarried and childless is increasing, especially among high-earning women with advanced degrees. However, they suggest that for many women, this outcome is unintentional and not necessarily desired, particularly as societal expectations and personal desires for family and commitment can change with age.

How does the speaker use the analogy of designer bags to explain women's choices in the sexual marketplace?

The speaker uses the analogy of designer bags to illustrate how women may be willing to pay a high 'price tag' (high standards) for a product (partner) that they perceive as being of high value. However, they also point out that most women are not in the 'one percent' and may need to lower their standards (price tags) to find a suitable partner, similar to how a consumer might opt for a discounted or less expensive product if the high-value item is out of reach.

What advice does the speaker offer to women based on the discussion?

The speaker advises women to be aware of the changing dynamics and potential outcomes in the sexual marketplace as they age. They suggest that women should consider their options and the likelihood of different outcomes, and that they may need to adjust their expectations or 'price tags' to secure a relationship that they desire.

Outlines

00:00

🌟 Introduction to the Sexual Marketplace and Female Hypergamy

Dr. Orion taraban introduces the topic of the video, which is the current state of the sexual marketplace and how it affects women. He notes that fewer people are getting married or entering relationships, and attributes this trend partly to female hypergamy. He discusses how childless women under 30 are outperforming men in various metrics, leading to a smaller pool of suitable partners due to women's tendency to 'mate up'. The video also touches on the traditional gender roles in courtship, where men are expected to make the first move, and questions why this custom persists despite changes in other gender norms.

05:01

📈 Possible Outcomes for Women in the Sexual Marketplace

The video outlines five potential outcomes for women in the sexual marketplace, based on their hypergamy and the dynamics of male-female interactions. These outcomes range from women successfully securing a high-value man to ending up unpartnered. The speaker emphasizes that the likelihood of each outcome varies, with some being more plausible than others. He uses the analogy of purchasing a designer bag to explain why women might opt for different strategies in the mating market, ultimately affecting their choices and the potential outcomes.

10:02

🎯 Analyzing the Dynamics of Mate Selection and Competition

This paragraph delves into the dynamics of mate selection, highlighting the competition among women for the top 10 percent of men and the paradox that arises from it. The speaker explains that the men who are most desirable are least likely to commit, as they have many options. He argues that most women will not end up with the 'Versace' of men, as they are not in the 'one percent' of women who can 'afford' such a high-value partner. The discussion also touches on the reality that many women will face the choice between settling for less or remaining single, and predicts that a significant portion will end up with lower-value men who are willing to pay a higher 'price tag'.

15:03

🕰️ The Changing Game for Women Over Time

The speaker discusses how the 'game' changes for women as they age, particularly after the age of 30, when the average male's sexual market value exceeds that of the average woman's for the first time. He emphasizes the importance of planning for the future, as many women unintentionally end up childless or in less desirable relationships. The speaker also notes that high-earning, highly educated women are more likely to face challenges in the mating market due to their age, career focus, and resistance to lowering their standards, leading to a higher likelihood of unintentional childlessness and settling for less in relationships.

💡 Final Thoughts on Relationship Dynamics and Choices

In the conclusion, the speaker reflects on the distribution of endgame likelihoods for women based on their strategies in the sexual marketplace. He suggests that most women will end up with a 'serviceable option' but may not secure their first choice of partner. The speaker encourages women to consider the value of their potential partners beyond their perceived 'market value' and to reframe their expectations to find happiness in their relationships. He also reminds viewers that the current odds are the most favorable they will face and encourages them to reflect on the discussion in the comments section.

Keywords

💡Female Hypergamy

Female hypergamy refers to the social phenomenon where women tend to seek partners who are of a higher social, economic, or educational status than themselves. In the context of the video, this behavior is identified as a primary driver for the current state of the sexual marketplace, where fewer people are entering into relationships or marriage due to the mismatch between women's expectations and the performance of men in the same demographic.

💡Sexual Marketplace Value (SMV)

Sexual Marketplace Value (SMV) is a concept used to describe an individual's perceived desirability or attractiveness in the context of dating and mating. It is influenced by various factors such as age, physical appearance, social status, and financial stability. In the video, SMV is used to analyze the dynamics between men and women in the dating scene, particularly how it changes with age and affects relationship outcomes.

💡Gatekeepers of Sex and Commitment

The terms 'gatekeepers of sex and commitment' refer to the traditional gender roles where women are seen as the deciders or controllers of sexual encounters, while men are expected to be the initiators or proposers of commitment, such as marriage. This concept is highlighted in the video to illustrate the power dynamics in romantic relationships and how they contribute to the current challenges faced by women in finding suitable partners.

💡Intersexual Competition

Intersexual competition is the rivalry between individuals of the same sex for the attention and affection of potential mates. In the video, this concept is used to describe the intense competition among women to attract the top percentage of men who are highly desirable, leading to a situation where most women end up 'priced out' of the market if they maintain high standards for potential partners.

💡End Games

In the context of the video, 'end games' refer to the potential outcomes or destinations that women may reach in their pursuit of romantic relationships and partnerships. These outcomes are influenced by factors such as personal preferences, societal expectations, and the dynamics of the sexual marketplace. The video outlines five possible 'end games' for women, ranging from securing a high-value partner to remaining unpartnered.

💡Behavioral Economics

Behavioral economics is an interdisciplinary field that studies the effects of psychological factors on the economic decisions of individuals and institutions. It combines insights from psychology and economics to understand how people make choices that affect their financial well-being. In the video, behavioral economics is used to analyze the decision-making processes of women in the dating market, particularly how they evaluate potential partners and the trade-offs they make.

💡Unpartnered and Childless

The term 'unpartnered and childless' describes individuals who are not in a committed romantic relationship and do not have children. In the video, this term is used to discuss one of the potential outcomes for women in the dating market, particularly those who are unable or unwilling to lower their standards or settle for less desirable partners.

💡Reproductive Window

The 'reproductive window' refers to the period in a person's life when they are biologically capable of bearing children. In the context of the video, it is mentioned as a factor that can influence women's decisions in the dating market, especially as they age and face societal and personal pressures to start a family.

💡Low-Grade Marital Dysfunction

Low-grade marital dysfunction refers to minor, ongoing issues or dissatisfaction within a marriage that do not necessarily lead to divorce but can cause persistent unhappiness or conflict. In the video, this concept is used to describe the dissatisfaction that can arise when one partner feels they have 'settled' for someone who is not their first choice, leading to a lack of fulfillment in the relationship.

💡Rational Decision-Making

Rational decision-making involves making choices based on logical considerations and the pursuit of one's self-interest. It is a concept from economics and decision theory that assumes individuals act to maximize their benefits while minimizing costs. In the video, rational decision-making is discussed in the context of women's choices in the dating market, particularly how they weigh their options and the potential outcomes of different strategies.

💡Market Dynamics

Market dynamics refer to the forces that drive changes in the behavior of a market, such as supply and demand, competition, and consumer preferences. In the video, market dynamics are applied to the context of romantic relationships, analyzing how the interplay between the number of available partners, individual preferences, and societal expectations shape the outcomes for individuals in the dating market.

Highlights

The current state of the sexual marketplace is at historically unprecedented lows with fewer people getting married, entering relationships, or even hooking up.

Female hypergamy, where women tend to mate and date up, is a primary driver for the decline in relationships and marriages.

Young women are outperforming men in almost every quantifiable metric, especially in education and earnings.

Despite modern views, the traditional gender role of men making the first move in relationships persists.

The average male's sexual marketplace value exceeds the average woman's for the first time at age 30.

As women's sexual marketplace value decreases with age, the same offer from men becomes increasingly expensive over time.

There are five possible end games for women in the sexual marketplace, ranging from securing a high-value man to remaining unpartnered.

High-performing attractive young women set a high barrier to entry, leading to intense intersexual competition.

Men who have what women want are the least likely to commit, as they have more options available to them.

The least likely outcome for women is to keep their standards high and secure a high-value man, as this only happens about one percent of the time.

The most likely outcome for women is to end up with a lower value man who is willing to pay a higher price tag.

About one in four women will end up unpartnered and childless, a proportion that is rapidly growing.

Many women unintentionally end up childless, with the highest proportion being among high-earning women with advanced degrees.

The fear of missing out and societal pressure can lead women to settle for less desirable relationships.

Most women end up with the relationship they want but not with the man they would prefer, leading to low-grade marital dysfunction.

The key to a satisfying relationship may be reframing the value of what is attainable rather than focusing on what is out of reach.

The current odds ratios are skewed against women as they age, and their best chance to secure the desired relationship may be now.

Transcripts

I'm Dr Orion taraban and this is cycax

Better Living Through psychology and the

topic of today's short talk is the way

it all ends

so this is a long one but it's an

important one it's also one for the

ladies so guys forward this on to your

sisters and daughters they need to hear

this

all right let's start by taking a high

level look at the state of the sexual

Marketplace in the present day shall we

fewer people are getting married

entering into relationships or even

hooking up than ever before all three of

these things are at historically

unprecedented lows and there are many

many reasons for this however one of the

primary drivers of this phenomenon as

discussed in the previous episode is

female hypergamy

coupled with the reality that in the

west young women are doing very well

childless women under 30 are

outperforming men in that demographic in

almost every quantifiable metric and

most notably in education and earning

yay women

that said if women retain their tendency

to mate and date up and if young men are

underperforming relative to young women

then there will simply be a smaller and

smaller pool from which most women would

be willing to select a partner and since

women are The Gatekeepers of sex and Men

Are The Gatekeepers of commitment and

since sex precedes commitment in the

west we see the trickle-down effect

mentioned before less sex leads to fewer

relationships leads to fewer marriages

now this would actually be a much easier

problem to solve were it not for one

little thing namely women despite all

their modern ideas about gender sex and

power are still waiting for the offer

as discussed previously across all

cultures and throughout history the man

has been expected to proposition the

woman

this proposition can range from you up

to can I buy you a drink sometime to

will you marry me but it is always the

man who makes the offer to the woman

and this is peculiar because there

doesn't seem to be like a necessary

reason for this like if we can

collectively question the necessity of

pretty much every other traditional

gender role I'm not sure why this one

has survived to the present day and just

for the record I would love to be taken

out to dinner like if you want to make

all the plans and pay for everything or

if you want to invite me over for a

home-cooked meal I would be thrilled to

show up and look pretty

provided of course you are sufficiently

attractive you meet all of my criteria

and you don't assume I'm just going to

sleep with you because that would be

creepy and my eyes are up here

in any case and for whatever reason

women don't seem interested in occupying

this traditionally male role in the

courtship process at all ages and at all

levels of commitment they are still

waiting for the offer now on the surface

this doesn't seem to cause too many

problems for women in their 20s the

offers might be coming in hard and fast

and it may reasonably seem like it's

only a matter of time before an even

better offer comes in and they'll accept

when they're ready however this attitude

while understandable leads to a number

of Fairly predictable Downstream

consequences this is because the game

changes at 30.

previously discussed 30 is the age at

which the average male sexual

Marketplace value exceeds the average

woman's sexual Marketplace value for the

very first time

and since men are presumably expected to

make the same ultimate offer namely

marriage or a lifetime of commitment

protection and provision to a woman in

her 20s as to a woman in her 30s or

Beyond

and since women's sexual Marketplace

value decreases across the same timeline

all other things being equal the same

offer becomes increasingly expensive as

the woman ages

I'll say that again in a slightly

different way since the offer is the

same but a woman's sexual Marketplace

value decreases as she ages the same

offer becomes increasingly expensive as

a function of time

what this generally means is that if

women don't adapt to changing conditions

they may find themselves priced out of

the market especially since they seem

hell-bent against making the offer this

is why Mick Jagger crooned that time was

on his side

yes it is

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all right let's try to put this all

together shall we given all the factors

that we've discussed thus far female

hypergamy young women's success relative

to young men changing smv as a function

of time and the fact that women aren't

making offers to men there are actually

only a few different ways this can

possibly turn out in fact if we play the

chess out 20 moves we see that there are

only five possible end games here for

women

can't give the exact odd ratios but some

are much more plausible than others

let's briefly walk through all five

scenarios

remember

High performing attractive young women

set an extremely high barrier to entry

their success coupled with their

hypergamy means that there are fewer

potential mating and dating options for

them their price tags the value required

to overcome their entry barriers to a

sexual relationship are very very high

and since the majority of women are

gunning for the same top 10 percent of

men the intersexual competition is

astounding

now on the other hand while women are

doing very well the men to whom they are

hypergamously attracted are by

definition doing even better

these 10 percent of men have incredible

optionality and they may understandably

be reticent to forego the buffet for the

same meal for the rest of their lives

this creates the ironic Paradox that the

men who have what women want are the

least likely to give it to them

let me say that again the men who have

what women want are the least likely to

give it to them from their perspective

the women's demands are too expensive

and they only become more expensive as a

function of time

and this phenomenon will intensify as

the trends we've discussed continue

what this means is that given the

assumptions I've already mentioned there

are only five end games for women as

you'll see they logically cover all

possible outcomes here they are

a women keep their price tags High beat

out the intersexual competition and

secure the high value man

B women lower their price tags in order

to beat out the intersexual competition

and secure the high value man

C women keep their price tags High fail

to beat out the intersexual competition

and settle for a lower value man

D women lower their price tags still

fail to beat out the intersexual

competition and settle for a low value

man

and E women neither secure nor settle

and end up unpartnered there are

literally no other ways for the game to

end

so which outcome is most likely

feel free to pause the episode and take

a guess

now since we're talking about behavioral

economics and the exchange of value the

easiest way to approach an answer to

this question is to consider what you a

woman would do if you were shopping

to that end would you ever ever buy the

exact same product from one vendor if

you could get it more cheaply and easily

somewhere else

of course not

and that's why though this is going to

be hard for some women to appreciate the

most unlikely outcome by far

is scenario a

keeping your price tag high with men who

are Awash in optionality ain't gonna

lead to a sale

that's it do you sometimes pay much more

for a product from one vendor even

though you could get a similar product

more cheaply and easily elsewhere

you do

almost every woman I know owns a

designer bag which is a sack to hold

things

you don't need to spend thousands of

dollars on a sack but you do need to

spend thousands of dollars on a Versace

sack now Versace can charge thousands of

dollars for a sack because they have

demonstrated proof that women will pay

thousands of dollars they can beat out

all the other sacks they are the one

percent of sacks and a woman needs to be

a one percent woman

to have a Versace price tag By

definition most women are not one

percent women

they will lose to the intersexual

competition for the top 10 percent of

men

if they keep their price tags High

this is not because these men can't

afford the price tag but because like

you they are not going to spend more

than they need to for the exact same

product so scenario a is the least

likely it only happens about one percent

of the time

next appreciate the fact that even if

every one of these top 10 percent of men

wanted to get married and settle down

and they definitely don't that would

mean by definition a maximum of only 10

percent of women could possibly end up

with one of these high value men and

since one percent of women end up in

scenario a and since roughly one-third

of the remaining men in this category by

a conservative estimation will be

uninterested in settling down at any one

time this means that about six percent

of women can possibly end up in scenario

B making it the second least likely

outcome

and of course the cost of securing this

outcome is women lowering their price

tags women are you more likely to buy

the Versace sack at full retail or when

it's on sale even if you could afford

the full retail wouldn't you be more

motivated to act by the discount

of course you would because that's

rational and if Versace wants to reach a

clientele that would otherwise be priced

out of its regular product that is

exactly what Versace needs to do

excellent we've covered the first two

options and there are still 93 percent

of women left unaccounted for where are

they going to go

well since we know that 25 percent of

women are unmarried at 40. a figure

that's increased a whopping 25 in just

the last 10 years and seven percent of

women end up in the first two categories

that means that about two-thirds of

women will face endgames C and D

and since my impression is that women

reproductive window notwithstanding

would genuinely and understandably

prefer to remain unpartnered than resign

themselves to a less desirable

relationship with a lower value man I

don't think there's an equal split here

that said the desire for children and

commitment can be very powerful in women

especially as they age so there is a

split to be made

my hunch is that about 15 percent of

women end up in scenario D they lower

their price tags still fail to beat out

the intersexual competition and settle

for a lower value man making it the

third least likely outcome

and these women typically end up here

out of pressure necessity

women would you ever pay twenty dollars

for a mediocre sandwich probably if you

were at the airport and you didn't plan

properly

in this scenario the prospect of going

12 hours without food is more

distasteful than being gouged for a

disappointing meal you will be willing

to pay more for less if the prospect of

going entirely without is more painful

seen from the opposite perspective this

is why producers who create on a regular

Cadence everyone from car manufacturers

to fashion designers to local bakeries

radically discount their products right

before the newer fresher products are

released

this is designed to capture customers

who for whatever reason are unwilling or

unable to wait just a little bit longer

for a better option hence pressured

necessity if you need the sale and your

product is expiring this is how you

motivate action

now next up is scenario e

these are women who are unable to secure

and unwilling to settle and they

constitute a rapidly growing proportion

of the population as of right now about

one in Four Women will face this end

game and I think it will soon become one

in three making it the second most

likely outcome

it's too harsh to say that these women

end up alone after all there are people

everywhere with whom you can have

satisfying relationships but they end up

unpartnered and childless

in 2020 nearly 60 percent of women under

30 in the U.S were childless and frankly

this doesn't seem to bother most women

in this demographic many of them are

thriving making good money traveling the

world prioritizing their friends and

their interests and receiving lots of

offers however as I can apparently never

say enough the game changes at 30. just

like a lot changes between the ages of

19 and 29 A lot changes between the ages

of 29 and 39.

Windows shorten clocks wind down and the

fear of missing out rears its ugly head

failing to plan is planning to fail

according to a 2010 meta-analysis only

10 percent of ultimately childless women

actively chose not to become mothers and

about 10 percent of the remaining women

could not become mothers due to medical

reasons that means about 80 percent of

women who never have children arrived at

this outcome unintentionally

and this is not an even distribution

across all women the proportion of

unintentionally childless women is

significantly the highest among

high-earning women

with Advanced degrees

namely

with the women who were performing so

well in their 20s

men are typically not as interested in

making offers to these women not as is

commonly believed because they are

intimidated by successful women that is

a cope for the women in question but

because these successful women are older

it takes time to get an advanced degree

and build a career and as we've seen all

other things being equal the same offer

becomes more expensive as a function of

time

these women are also the least likely to

surrender their hypergamous Tendencies

after all they've worked very hard to

get to where they are so why would or

should they settle

it's an excellent question however the

upshot here is that these women tend to

price themselves out of the market more

frequently than their less educated

lower earning and younger competition

and that leaves scenario C since these

five end games cover all the mutually

exclusive outcomes we can estimate that

53 percent or roughly half of all women

will end up with lower value men willing

to pay a higher price tag

while a high value man with lots of

options may not be willing to offer say

sexual exclusivity or a lifetime

commitment a lower value man who might

not be able to access the same sexual

opportunity otherwise might

these men must offer more to compensate

for their lower attractiveness this

means that most women end up with the

relationship they want but not with the

man they would prefer

and this is what leads to a lot of

low-grade marital dysfunction as Chris

Rock put it the number one reason why

your woman's always mad is because you

ain't her first choice

link below

not all women can afford a Versace sack

but that typically doesn't stop them

from wanting one and this can make them

envious and unhappy especially if

they're scrolling

on the other hand some women can

successfully resolve this dissonance by

making a virtue out of a necessity which

all things being equal is actually a

very useful reframe that is rather than

focus on the sack they wanted but

couldn't afford they recast the knockoff

they bought at a significant discount as

just as good after all the knockoff sack

can hold at least as much as the Versace

sack and it may even be the more

practical accessory for most occasions

so what's the upshot at the end of the

day most women will end up with a

perfectly serviceable option so there's

no need to give in to Panic or dread

so this is the approximate distribution

of endgame likelihood when we look 20

moves ahead and this distribution hinges

on women's continued reticence to make

the offer whether it's for a date or for

a lifetime of provision the game will

change significantly if and when they

cross that threshold but this is how it

roughly looks under the current state of

play

just keep in mind that these are kind of

Ideal odds ratios they skew more

disadvantageously to the women as the

years go by

for most women they will never have a

better chance of securing the

relationship they want with the man they

prefer

than today

this has been real talk with psychics

what do you think let me know in the

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