Lay Over 3.5 Goals Strategy @Kick-Off | Full Tutorial Using Sports-IQ Filters

Summary

In this video, 'Trading the Market' revisits the popular 'Lay Over 3.5 Goals' strategy with a new twist, showcasing how to use Sports IQ's filtering system to identify optimal matches for this strategy. The strategy involves laying over 3.5 goals before kickoff at odds between 3.0 to 4.0 and trading out after 10 minutes if no goals are scored. The presenter discusses the transparency of their involvement with Sports IQ and emphasizes the continued availability of free resources. The video also highlights the effectiveness of the strategy with data from expert traders, demonstrating a strike rate of 80.47% and a failure rate of 19.53% over 5,770 matches.

Takeaways

• 📈 The video revisits a popular trading strategy with an added twist: the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy.
• 🔍 The strategy involves using a powerful filtering system on Sports IQ to find the best matches for trading.
• 💡 The 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy is simple: lay over 3.5 goals before kickoff at odds between 3.0 and 4.0, and trade out after 10 minutes if no goals are scored.
• ⚽ The strategy focuses on football matches where both the home and away teams have a low likelihood of scoring in the first 10 minutes.
• 📊 The video demonstrates how to set up filters on Sports IQ to identify matches that fit the strategy's criteria.
• 💼 The video addresses the relationship between Trading the Market and Sports IQ, clarifying that while some team members have invested, the two entities remain separate.
• 💰 The strategy has been successfully executed by two individuals, Johnb UK and MK Cooper, who have shared their profit and loss details over four years.
• 📉 The backtesting tool on Sports IQ is used to analyze the strategy's effectiveness, showing a strike rate of 80.47% and a failure rate of 19.53%.
• 📋 The video provides a step-by-step guide on how to set up and use the filters on Sports IQ for the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy.
• 🌐 The strategy is applicable across various leagues and can be adjusted to fit different trading styles and preferences.

Q & A

What is the main strategy discussed in the video?

The main strategy discussed in the video is the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy, which involves laying over 3.5 goals before a football match starts, trading out after 10 minutes if no goals are scored, aiming for a profit as the odds drift.

What is the role of Sports IQ in this strategy?

Sports IQ is used as a platform to find the best matches to apply the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy. It provides a powerful filtering system to identify suitable matches based on specific criteria.

Why did members of the Trading the Market team invest in Sports IQ?

Members of the Trading the Market team invested in Sports IQ because they saw the opportunity to be part of a platform they use and believe provides unparalleled value for money.

How does the presenter address concerns about the relationship between Trading the Market and Sports IQ?

The presenter clarifies that despite some team members owning shares in Sports IQ, Trading the Market remains a separate entity, and the free resources available on their website will continue to be offered at no cost.

What are the specific criteria for selecting matches in the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy?

The criteria include selecting matches where both the home and away teams have scored or conceded less than 10% of their goals in the first 10 minutes of matches, and the odds for over 3.5 goals at kickoff are between 3.0 and 4.0.

How do you trade out according to the strategy?

You trade out after 10 minutes of the match if no goals are scored, aiming for a profit as the odds have drifted. Some traders may choose to leg out of their position incrementally as odds drift or trade out after a specific tick movement in odds.

What is the importance of the 'timings 10 minutes' filter in the strategy?

The 'timings 10 minutes' filter is crucial as it focuses on the away team's performance from minute 1 to 10, and the same for the home team, to identify matches where early goals are less likely.

What is the significance of the odds range of 3.0 to 4.0 in the strategy?

The odds range of 3.0 to 4.0 is considered the 'sweet spot' where the market and traders are uncertain about the number of goals, allowing for potential value and profit.

What does the backtesting tool in Sports IQ reveal about the strategy's effectiveness?

The backtesting tool shows that out of 5,770 matches analyzed, 4,643 matches were successful with no goals in the first 10 minutes, resulting in a strike rate of 80.47% and a failure rate of 19.53%.

How does the presenter suggest traders approach live trading of the strategy?

The presenter suggests traders only trade matches they can watch live and to be patient, waiting for sufficient data from European leagues before applying the strategy.

Outlines

00:00

🔍 Introduction to the Lay Over 3.5 Goal Strategy

The video begins with a discussion on revisiting a popular trading strategy with an added twist, known as the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy. The presenter introduces the use of Sports IQ's filtering system to identify suitable matches for this strategy. They address concerns about a potential conflict of interest due to team members owning shares in Sports IQ, clarifying that Trading the Market remains a separate entity and continues to offer free resources. The strategy's origin is credited to two successful traders, 'johnb UK' and 'MK Cooper', and the video promises to guide viewers on how to implement this strategy using Sports IQ.

05:00

📊 Strategy Details and Backtesting Results

This paragraph delves into the specifics of the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy, which involves laying bets on over 3.5 goals before a football match starts, with specific odds ranges, and trading out after the first 10 minutes if no goals are scored. The strategy's criteria are outlined, focusing on teams with a low likelihood of scoring early goals. The video demonstrates how to use Sports IQ's backtesting tool to analyze the strategy's effectiveness, showing a high success rate based on historical data. It also discusses the strategy's real-world application by trader 'John', who has achieved significant profits over four years, and emphasizes the importance of disciplined trading and market selection.

10:02

🛠️ Applying Filters and Strategy Execution

The final paragraph guides viewers on how to apply filters within Sports IQ to find matches that fit the 'lay over 3.5 goal' strategy. It explains the process of manually verifying odds on betting platforms and using the platform's tools to streamline the selection process. The video concludes with a demonstration of how to review and evaluate potential matches using the applied filters, and it encourages viewers to use the strategy with confidence. The presenter, James, reminds viewers to wait for sufficient data before applying the strategy and invites feedback for future video content, emphasizing the importance of a disciplined approach to trading.

Keywords

💡Lay Over 3.5 Goal Strategy

The 'Lay Over 3.5 Goal Strategy' refers to a betting technique where a bettor places a lay bet on the outcome of a football match exceeding 3.5 goals. In the video, this strategy is revisited with a twist, where the focus is on laying over 3.5 goals before the match starts and trading out after 10 minutes if no goals are scored. This strategy is central to the video's theme of trading on sports outcomes.

💡Sports IQ

Sports IQ is a platform mentioned in the video that offers a powerful filtering system to find the best matches to trade on. It is used to apply the 'Lay Over 3.5 Goal Strategy' by setting specific filters to identify suitable matches. The video discusses how four members of the 'Trading the Market' team have invested in Sports IQ, indicating its relevance to the strategy being taught.

💡Laying

Laying is a betting term where a bettor bets against a specific outcome occurring. In the context of the video, laying over 3.5 goals means betting that there will not be more than 3.5 goals scored in a football match. The strategy involves laying at odds between 3.0 and 4.0 at kickoff and trading out after 10 minutes if the conditions are met.

💡Trading Out

Trading out in betting refers to closing a position to lock in a profit or minimize a loss. The video explains that if no goals are scored in the first 10 minutes of a match, the bettor trades out for a profit as the odds drift. This is part of the strategy to manage risk and secure returns.

💡Cash Out Sum

The 'Cash Out Sum' is the amount that a bettor can receive if they decide to cash out of a bet before the event ends. In the video, as the odds drift over the first 10 minutes without any goals, the cash out sum increases, providing the opportunity for a profitable trade out if the strategy's conditions are met.

💡Controlled Loss

A 'Controlled Loss' is a pre-determined amount of loss that a trader is willing to accept in a trade. The video mentions that if a goal is scored within the first 10 minutes, the trader will trade out for a controlled loss to minimize the impact of the early goal on their betting strategy.

💡Filters

Filters in the context of the video refer to criteria set within the Sports IQ platform to identify matches that fit the 'Lay Over 3.5 Goal Strategy'. These include filters for games played, timing of goals, and odds ranges. The video demonstrates how to set up these filters to find suitable matches for trading.

💡Back Testing

Back testing is the process of testing a trading strategy on historical data to evaluate its effectiveness. In the video, the back testing tool on Sports IQ is used to analyze the performance of the 'Lay Over 3.5 Goal Strategy' on past matches, providing insights into its potential success rate.

💡Strike Rate

The 'Strike Rate' in betting is the percentage of successful bets out of the total number of bets placed. The video discusses the strike rate of the 'Lay Over 3.5 Goal Strategy' as 80.47% based on back testing, indicating a high success rate for the strategy when applied correctly.

💡Odds Range

An 'Odds Range' is the set of possible odds at which a bet can be placed. The video specifies an odds range of 3.0 to 4.0 for laying over 3.5 goals, which is considered the 'sweet spot' for gaining value as it represents a balance between the likelihood of over or under 3.5 goals being scored.

Highlights

Introduction to the 'Lay Over 3.5 Goal' strategy with an added twist.

Demonstration of using Sports IQ's filtering system to find optimal matches for the strategy.

Disclosure of the Trade the Market team's investment in Sports IQ and the maintenance of free content.

Emphasis on the transparency of the team's involvement in Sports IQ and the continued availability of free resources.

Acknowledgment of the strategy's originators, Johnb UK and MK Cooper, and their significant contributions.

Explanation of the strategy's simple premise: laying over 3.5 goals before kickoff within specific odds ranges.

Details on trading out after 10 minutes if no goals are scored, aiming for a controlled loss if a goal is scored early.

Criteria for the strategy include games played, timing filters for early goal likelihood, and manual odds verification.

Use of Sports IQ's backtesting tool to experiment with different thresholds and find the most effective settings.

John's personal strategy and profit details shared, showcasing a total profit of £23,268.8 over four years.

Analysis of John's staking strategy changes and their impact on profit margins.

Discussion on the importance of disciplined trading and careful market selection for strategy success.

Reinforcement of the strategy's effectiveness with a strike rate of 80.47% and a failure rate of 19.53% over a large sample size.

Guidance on how to set up filters on Sports IQ for the strategy and review potential matches.

Advice on waiting for sufficient data before applying the strategy to ensure accuracy.

Encouragement for viewers to engage with the content by liking, subscribing, and suggesting future video topics.

Closing remarks by James, summarizing the 'Lay Over 3.5 Goals at Kickoff' strategy and wishing viewers successful trading.

Transcripts

[Music]

welcome back to trading the market in

today's video we're revisiting one of

our most popular strategies with an

added twist the lay over 3.5 goal

strategy I'll also be showing you how to

use the powerful filtering system on

Sports IQ to find the best lay over 3.5

matches to trade on this will be the

first of many strategy videos showing

you how to create your own strategy

filters to build your own strategies or

you can just follow along with the

filters we will be sharing before I dive

in let me address the elephant in the

room as previously stated trading the

market does not own sports IQ however as

of the 15th of August this year four

members of the trade in the market team

have purchased shes in sports IQ all at

different levels of investment so yes

there are four of us who have a Varian

stake but trading the market is still a

separate entity if you can't get your

head around that fact then that is

purely your own problem it doesn't stop

me from talking about it in a video

though the opportunity to be a part of

sports IQ was not taken lightly we've

always stated that trading the market is

free and this remains true today the

daily sheets our powerful downloadable

spreadsheet all the online data on the

website and all the training videos are

still available to you as always at no

cost whatsoever the chance to be

involved in owning and further

developing the platform was too big a

draw to resist after all we use the

platform ourselves and believe it

provides unparallel value for money for

those questioning this decision we

understand there is a general consensus

that professional Traders should

primarily earn a living from Trading

however we all have our own various

businesses and jobs outside of trading

in should we give those up to not a

chance I love my

taxi it's a free country and people can

earn a living as they see fit at least

we are being transparent with our

viewers and followers about our

involvement ultimately it's up to you

the consumer if you wish to purchase

Sports IQ and use all of its powerful

tools the free data remains available on

the TTM website and always will be

free now that we've cleared that up

let's get back to the strategy the added

twist I mentioned earlier isn't my

creation it comes from Two Gentlemen who

have developed an executed this strategy

with great success over many years so a

big shout out to johnb UK and MK Cooper

absolute Legends of the community some

people even think they're the same

person and I can assure you they're not

but I'll leave that for you to decide

here at tradeing the market we've

recreated the bases of their strategy

and implemented it into sports IQ so

what is the strategy well it's very

simple we are laying over 3.5 goals

before a football match kicks off we

will only lay in an odds range of 3.0 to

4.0 at kickoff and we will be trading

out after 10 minutes of the match have

been played as the odds drift over the

course of the 10 minutes this will leave

us with an increasing Cash Out sum

providing there were no goals scored by

either team in the specified time if a

goal scored in the first 10 minutes then

we will trade out for a controlled loss

as soon as possible there are multiple

ways to exit your position some like to

leave the whole St in the trade for the

full 10 minutes some choose to leg out

of their position by backing in

increments as the odds begin to drift

out in the case of John and Mark they

choose to trade out after the price has

drifted by 12 tick movements and if the

price has not drifted by 12 Ticks by the

10 minute point they will trade out for

whatever profit is being offered at that

moment it's a very simple strategy if

the rules are followed and you keep your

discipline in every trade the criteria

for the strategy is as follows first up

is the games played GP filter which is

automatically set to show teams that

have played over eight games in the

current season this gives us a

substantial sample size to accurately

assess the team's form next we're using

the timings 10 minutes filter set the

filter to look at the away team's

performance from minute 1 to minute 10

we want to focus on matches where the

away away team has scored or conceded

less than 10% of their goals during this

period this indicates a low likelihood

of early goals finally apply the same

timings 10 minutes filter for the home

team again set the filter to show teams

that have scored or conceded less than

10% of their goals in the first 10

minutes of the match this ensures both

teams are less likely to break the

deadlock early making it a prime

candidate for The Layover 3.5 goal Str y

you can adjust these percentage values

to suit your trading style Sports iq's

back testing tool allows you to

experiment with different thresholds to

see what works for you but for this

video we'll stick to the values I

personally use which have proven to be

effective over time and finally within

the filtering you will then need to

manually head over to bfer and cross

check the over 3.5 goals market and make

sure the odds are sat between 3.0 and

4.0 this will ensure you are finding

matches that match your criteria and sit

within the odds range odds between 3.0

and 4.0 I have found to be The Sweet

Spot to gain value as the odds are at

such a level that the markets and

Traders are not sure if there will be

over or under 3.5 goals within the match

and with the data and our criteria we

can then carve an edge and take a profit

long term from within this specific

market now that we've set up our filters

let's head over to the back testing page

to see what kind of strike rate we can

achieve with the settings first ensure

that all leagues are selected to give us

a comprehensive data set we're focusing

on Match goals specifically looking at

the period between minute 1 and minute

10 next add the filter for any results

under 0.5 goals this will focus on games

where no goals were scored in the first

10 minutes the next step is

incorporating historical odds we want to

include historical odds in our test so

click use pre-match odds set the filter

for the over 3.5 m Market with odds over

3.0 and add a second filter for the over

3.5 Market with odds under 4.0 once all

the parameters are in place click run

back testing and let the tool process

the

data so as you can see the tool analyzed

5,770 matches based on our filters out

of these

4,643 matches were successful meaning no

goals were scor scored in the first 10

minutes and

1,127 matches failed so a goal was

scored within the first 10 minutes this

results in a strike rate of

8.47% and a failure rate of

19.53% as this is John strategy let's

delve deeper into the data John

generously shared his profit and loss

details from using the layover 3.5 goal

strategy over the past 4 years which

provides an insightful look at its

Effectiveness the spreadsheet covers his

trades from July 1st 2020 to the present

day showcasing a total of 809 selections

during this time John has profited 23,

268 and8 from this single strategy the

data includes various key metrics such

as the league the match details the

market you traded in the lay ODS the

amount sted or liability and the

duration of each trade John's approach

focuses on laying over 3.5 or over 4.5

goals for the first 10 minutes of a

match trading out either when 12 ticks

are reached in odds or at the 10-minute

Mark whichever comes first in some cases

he also backs the under 3.5 or under 4.5

markets depending on where the value lay

he tracks his p&l for each trade

including hedge profits and losses the

timing of the goals and the final score

his disciplined approach to hedging out

of the market before too much risk is

introduced has led to a consistent

accumulation of profit it's important to

note that John staking strategy changed

considerably on October 23rd 2021 from

that day onwards he used a reduced

liability of

£50 for both back tolay and latto back

trades this means that approximately

£18,500 of the total profit was earned

with large Stakes during the first 15

months the profit from October 23rd 2021

to the present day is 4,373

reflecting the reduced stakes and

smaller profits per game which range

from £10

to15 additionally John's earlier

approach was less strict with some

trades running closer to the 15-minute

Mark whereas he now aders to a 10-minute

cut off though recent trades

occasionally have extended to 12 minutes

and Beyond due to VA decisions and odds

readjustments this detailed

documentation showing trades across

various leagues and selections

reinforces the strategy success over the

long term and highlights the value of

disciplined trading and careful Market

selection it's also worth noting that

John only trades games he can watch live

on Sky Sports TNT Sports and terrestrial

channels like ITV and BBC he does not

trade many games per week so using this

strategy with our filters you will

achieve a strike rate of 80.4 7% and a

failure rate of

19.53% on the day of recording the video

over a sample size of 5 1,770 matches

this demonstrates the potential of

laying over 3.5 goals at kickoff when

applied without a specific criteria if

you are choosing to leg out of your

position every few minutes obviously

this will affect the figures I'm sharing

but as a blanket 10-minute trade the

numbers do not lie so going back to the

strategy page once you've set up your

filters the games that meet your

criteria will be displayed below take

your time to review these matches next

to each game you'll find a direct link

to beter clicking this link will take

you straight to the relevant league on

beter where you can quickly navigate to

the desired football match next to the

BET faur icon is a link to the stats

page to dive even deeper into even more

stats for the fixture and on the right

hand side you'll see the numerical

values for the filters we have applied

allowing you to evaluate each game's

potential at a glance I cannot make it

any simpler than that so thanks for

watching today's video on how to filter

games using Sports IQ for The Layover

3.5 goal strategy by applying these

filters you'll be able to identify the

best matches to trade on with confidence

please do keep in mind that eight games

have not yet been played in all European

leagues so if you're thinking of using

this straight away please be patient and

wait for the data to come before diving

in if you find this video helpful don't

forget to like subscribe and drop a

comment below with any strategies you'd

like to see in future videos now all

that's left to say is I've been James

this has been layover 3.5 goals at

kickoff and we are all trading the

market until next time happy Trading