Greetings from Lake George NY, politics and refining $PBF $USO

Summary

The speaker discusses their stay at the Sagamore hotel by Lake George, New York, and addresses the Northeastern Gas Association on energy policy challenges. They critique the region's environmentalism as a luxury of the wealthy, which hinders practical energy solutions like gas pipelines, leading to issues like Massachusetts burning oil during a winter energy surge. The speaker also touches on the political debate over LNG exports, the impact of high wages on inflation, and the hypocrisy of politicians like Elizabeth Warren. They express frustration with the current energy policy and predict an impending energy crisis, while also discussing the potential of midstream energy and the overestimation of electric vehicle adoption.

Takeaways

• 🏨 The speaker is staying at the Sagamore, a hotel at Lake George in Upstate New York, which is described as having a Soviet-style block architecture for the rooms.
• 🌄 Lake George is considered a more affordable alternative to the Hamptons for those seeking a waterfront property, and it's described as absolutely lovely with beautiful scenery.
• 💼 The speaker is at an event addressing financial markets' view of natural gas for the Northeastern Gas Association, an industry body focused on the interests of gas distributors.
• 💡 Energy policy in the Northeast is described as 'loopy', with environmentalism being a local issue and a luxury, often leading to resistance against gas pipelines due to the influence of wealthy residents.
• 📈 The primary cause of inflation during the COVID period, according to an academic research cited by the speaker, was higher workers' wages, not price gouging as some politicians suggest.
• 🚫 The speaker criticizes the hypocrisy of Northeast liberal politics, particularly regarding environmentalism, which they argue disproportionately affects the poor due to increased energy costs.
• 🌎 The speaker notes the proximity of the Marcellus Shale formation, a significant natural gas reserve, to the Northeast, and the challenges of leveraging this resource due to political and environmental concerns.
• 🌡️ The speaker discusses the potential for an energy crisis in the Northeast, mitigated so far by mild winters, and the impact of energy policy on retail consumers and frontline energy sellers like ConEd and National Grid.
• 🚗 There's a debate on the future of electric vehicles (EVs), with the speaker suggesting that due to cost, EV penetration may not be as high as expected, which could increase long-term oil demand.
• 📉 The speaker discusses the challenges in the oil and refining sector, suggesting that the market is bearish and that any investment in refining is speculative and需谨慎.

Q & A

Where is the speaker currently located?

The speaker is currently at Lake George in Upstate New York.

What is the name of the hotel the speaker is staying at?

The hotel the speaker is staying at is called The Sagamore.

What is the speaker's opinion about the hotel's rooms?

The speaker describes the rooms as nice but with a Soviet style, suggesting they are somewhat plain and block-like.

What is the speaker's view on the environmental policies in the Northeastern United States?

The speaker finds the environmental policies frustrating, criticizing them as being influenced by the wealthy who oppose gas pipelines in their backyards.

Why did Massachusetts face an energy crisis in 2022 according to the speaker?

Massachusetts faced an energy crisis in 2022 because they didn't have enough natural gas to meet the power demand surge in the deepest winter, leading them to burn 200,000 barrels a day of oil.

What does the speaker think is the primary cause of inflation during the COVID period?

The speaker believes that higher workers' wages were the single biggest contributor to inflation during the COVID period, as per some academic research he mentions.

What is the speaker's stance on the energy policy and environmentalism in the Northeast?

The speaker is critical of the energy policy and environmentalism in the Northeast, arguing that it is a luxury of the rich and hypocritical, as it negatively impacts the poor who are more sensitive to energy costs.

What is the speaker's opinion on the political debate between Kamala and Dong?

The speaker anticipates a significant difference in their views on the LNG moratorium on new LNG exports, which he identifies as a key issue in the debate.

What is the speaker's view on the current state of the oil market?

The speaker views the current state of the oil market as bearish, with speculators being short and market participants lacking conviction.

What investment strategy does the speaker suggest for the refining sector?

The speaker suggests a tentative investment strategy for the refining sector, with the idea that buying refining stocks might be a contrarian play, as it is not perceived as the 'dumbest' move at the moment.

What does the speaker think about the future of electric vehicles and their impact on oil demand?

The speaker cites an analyst's view that the penetration of electric vehicles will be lower than expected due to affordability issues, leading to a higher long-term oil demand forecast.