Israel-Hamas, Ukraine-Russia and China: John Mearsheimer on why the US is in serious trouble!

Summary

In this thought-provoking discussion, John M. Armstrong, a renowned political scientist, addresses the critical issue of American Grand Strategy in the context of a shifting global balance of power. He argues that the United States is losing focus on its principal threat—China's rise—due to its involvement in the Ukraine conflict and the Middle East. Armstrong emphasizes the need for the U.S. to pivot towards Asia, containing China's potential dominance, while also highlighting the complexities and challenges in disentangling from ongoing conflicts and the implications for the rules-based international order.

Takeaways

• 🌏 The United States is losing focus on its principal threat, the rise of China, due to diversions in Ukraine and the Middle East.
• 🔄 The world has transitioned from a unipolar moment, dominated by the US, to a multipolar world with the US, China, and Russia as great powers.
• 🇨🇳 China is considered the real threat to the US due to its economic and military growth, potentially dominating Asia.
• 🤝 The US should pivot towards East Asia but is instead getting more involved in Europe and the Middle East, which are less critical to its interests.
• 🇷🇺 Russia, the weakest of the three great powers, should ideally be aligned with the US against China, but US policies have pushed Russia towards China.
• 🇺🇦 The Ukraine crisis escalated due to NATO and EU expansion, and the US's support for a pro-Western Ukraine, leading to a war of attrition that favors Russia.
• 🇮🇱 The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the root cause of the recent escalation in the Middle East, with no viable solution in sight due to demographic shifts and political changes in Israel.
• 🕊️ The Middle East was showing signs of peace before the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas, which threatens to involve other regional powers and destabilize the area.
• 💡 The US's involvement in both Ukraine and the Middle East undermines its ability to uphold a rules-based international order and damages its global diplomatic position.
• 🔥 The situation in both Ukraine and the Middle East is expected to persist, creating long-term challenges for the US to pivot towards addressing the rise of China.

Q & A

What is the main argument presented by John M. in the transcript?

John M. argues that the United States is losing focus on its principal threat, which is the rise of China, due to its involvement in the Ukraine war in Europe and the Middle East conflicts.

According to John M., what is the current global balance of power?

The current global balance of power is multi-polar, with the United States, China, and Russia being the three great powers. Russia is the weakest among them, while China is seen as the primary threat to the United States.

What are the three areas of the world that the United States has historically fought and died for, according to the transcript?

The three areas are Europe, East Asia, and the Persian Gulf. These regions are important due to the presence of great powers and the strategic resource of oil.

Why does John M. believe that the United States should pivot to East Asia?

John M. believes the United States should pivot to East Asia because China, the main peer competitor and threat, is located there, and containing China is in the U.S.'s deep-seated interest.

What is the historical context of the Ukraine problem as described in the transcript?

The historical context includes the end of the Cold War, NATO's eastward expansion against Russia's objections, the color revolution attempts in Ukraine, and the eventual crisis in 2014 leading to Russia's annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict.

What is John M.'s prediction for the outcome of the war between Ukraine and Russia?

John M. predicts that Ukraine will not be able to win the war of attrition due to population and artillery imbalances in Russia's favor. He foresees a frozen conflict similar to the situation on the Korean Demilitarized Zone.

What is the core issue that leads to the conflict between Israel and Palestine, as outlined in the transcript?

The core issue is the longstanding Israel-Palestine conflict, with the failure to establish a two-state solution and the current situation of Palestinians living under difficult conditions in Gaza and the West Bank, leading to periodic uprisings.

How does John M. describe the demographic situation in Greater Israel?

John M. describes a demographic situation where there is rough equality between Palestinians and Israeli Jews, with Palestinians expected to outnumber Jews in the future, leading to challenges for Israel as a Jewish state.

What are the implications of the Israel-Palestine conflict for the United States, according to the transcript?

The implications include the United States being deeply involved and bound to Israel, potential damage to the rules-based order, and the risk of escalating conflicts in the Middle East that could draw in more regional and global powers.

What is the main criticism John M. has of U.S. foreign policy in relation to Russia?

John M. criticizes U.S. foreign policy for pushing Russia into the arms of China, which he sees as a strategic mistake since the U.S. should want Russia on its side to help counterbalance the threat from China.

How does John M. describe the current state of the rules-based order?

John M. describes the rules-based order as being in tatters due to the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as other forms of behavior by the United States, which have undermined the global stability and diplomatic position that the U.S. helped establish.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Introduction and Global Balance of Power

The video begins with an introduction of Tom Switzer, the executive director at the Center for Independence Studies, and John M. Arma, a renowned political scientist from the University of Chicago. The main topic of discussion is American Grand Strategy, with a focus on the United States' principal threat being the rise of China and the possibility of China dominating Asia. The speaker argues that the US has lost focus due to diversions such as the Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East, which prevents a complete pivot to Asia. The historical context of the global balance of power is explained, transitioning from a unipolar moment dominated by the United States to a multipolar world including the US, China, and Russia as great powers.

05:01

🛡️ American Grand Strategy and Global Interests

The speaker delves into the American Grand Strategy, outlining the three key areas of global interest for the United States: Europe, East Asia, and the Persian Gulf. These regions are crucial due to the presence of great powers and strategic resources like oil. The speaker emphasizes the shift in importance from Europe to East Asia, particularly due to China's emergence as a peer competitor. The United States' interest in maintaining a balance of power in these regions is highlighted, along with the strategic misstep of pushing Russia towards China instead of keeping them as a counterbalance to China's growing influence.

10:03

🇺🇦 The Ukraine Crisis and NATO Expansion

The historical context of the Ukraine crisis is discussed, starting from the end of the Cold War and the subsequent NATO expansion eastward, which was met with strong opposition from Russia. The speaker argues that the US and NATO's actions since 2008, including the push for Ukraine's inclusion in NATO, have been a significant mistake. The current state of the war is analyzed, with the speaker predicting that Ukraine will not be able to win in a war of attrition against Russia due to population and artillery imbalances. The speaker foresees a frozen conflict similar to the Korean War, with ongoing tensions and potential for escalation.

15:05

💥 The Middle East Conflict and its Implications

The speaker shifts focus to the Middle East, discussing the recent escalation between Israel and Hamas. The deep-rooted Israel-Palestinian conflict is highlighted as the core issue, with the speaker noting the impossibility of a two-state solution due to demographic shifts and political changes in Israel. The speaker expresses concern over the potential for the conflict to spiral out of control, involving other regional actors like Hezbollah and Iran. The impact on US foreign policy and the global rules-based order is discussed, with the speaker suggesting that the US is inextricably linked to the outcome of these conflicts.

20:06

🌏 The Broader Implications for US Foreign Policy

The speaker concludes by summarizing the challenges faced by the United States in its foreign policy due to the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The inability to fully pivot to Asia to address the threat from China is emphasized, as well as the unintended alliance between Russia and China due to US policies. The speaker also discusses the damage to the rules-based international order and the potential diplomatic and economic consequences, such as the risk of an oil embargo and the loss of influence in the global South. The speaker ends on a pessimistic note, seeing no easy solutions to the complex geopolitical challenges ahead.

Keywords

💡American Grand Strategy

American Grand Strategy refers to the overarching plan and approach the United States employs to achieve its national interests and security objectives on a global scale. In the context of the video, the speaker argues that the U.S. is losing focus on its primary strategic threat, which is the rise of China, due to its involvement in regional conflicts such as the Ukraine war and the Middle East disputes.

💡Multipolar World

A multipolar world is a geopolitical concept where multiple countries or regions possess significant power and influence, leading to a balance of power among them. In the video, the transition from a unipolar moment, dominated by the United States, to a multipolar world is highlighted as a significant shift, with the emergence of China and Russia as additional great powers alongside the U.S.

💡China's Rise

China's rise refers to the country's rapid economic growth, increasing military capabilities, and its broader impact on the global balance of power. The speaker identifies China's potential to dominate Asia and the threat it poses to U.S. interests as the principal challenge that the United States faces in the current global context.

💡Ukraine War

The Ukraine War is the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which escalated significantly in 2022. In the video, the speaker uses the Ukraine War as an example of how the U.S. is becoming increasingly involved in regional conflicts, which diverts its attention and resources away from its strategic focus on China.

💡Middle East Conflict

The Middle East Conflict encompasses the various political, religious, and territorial disputes in the region, including the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The speaker argues that the U.S.'s deep involvement in the Middle East, particularly with the recent escalation between Israel and Hamas, further complicates its ability to pivot towards addressing the rise of China.

💡Balance of Power

Balance of power is a concept in international relations where stability is maintained by ensuring that no single state becomes too powerful. The speaker discusses the importance of maintaining a balance of power, especially in relation to containing China's rise and preventing it from dominating Asia.

💡Unipolar Moment

The term 'unipolar moment' refers to a period when a single nation or power dominates the world stage. In the video, the speaker describes the post-Cold War era until around 2017 as the unipolar moment, during which the United States was the sole superpower and provided a sense of security and economic growth for many countries, including Australia.

💡Russian Resurgence

Russian resurgence refers to the strengthening of Russia as a global power, particularly under President Vladimir Putin's leadership since 2000. The speaker notes that Russia's comeback has shifted the global balance of power and has implications for U.S. grand strategy, as Russia is now considered a great power alongside the U.S. and China.

💡Pivot to Asia

The term 'pivot to Asia' refers to the strategic shift of focus by the United States towards the Asia-Pacific region, recognizing its growing economic and strategic importance. The speaker argues that the U.S. should pivot to Asia to counter China's rise but is currently hindered by its engagements in Europe and the Middle East.

💡Rules-Based Order

The rules-based order refers to the international system of laws, norms, and institutions that govern state behavior and maintain global stability. The speaker mentions that the U.S. has played a key role in establishing this order but suggests that recent events, including the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East, have weakened this framework and the U.S.'s position within it.

Highlights

Tom Switzer introduces John Mearsheimer, a renowned political scientist and professor at the University of Chicago.

John Mearsheimer's book, 'The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,' predicted the rise of China and its implications for global politics.

Mearsheimer argues that the United States is losing focus on its principal threat, which is the rise of China and its potential domination of Asia.

The unipolar moment, from 1989 to 2017, saw the United States as the sole great power, but this has transitioned into a multipolar world with the rise of China and Russia.

Mearsheimer identifies the three critical areas of global interest for the United States: Europe, East Asia, and the Persian Gulf.

East Asia has become the most important region for the United States due to the presence of China, the main peer competitor.

The United States' historical focus on Europe is shifting, but Mearsheimer warns against getting bogged down in Europe and the Middle East.

Mearsheimer criticizes the U.S. for pushing NATO and EU expansion eastward, against Russia's wishes, leading to the current Ukraine crisis.

The Ukraine conflict is expected to become a frozen conflict with no peace agreement in sight, keeping the U.S. engaged in Eastern Europe.

The Middle East was relatively peaceful until the recent escalation between Israel and Hamas, which threatens to involve other regional powers.

The core issue in the Middle East is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with no viable solution in sight due to demographic shifts and political changes in Israel.

Mearsheimer asserts that the United States' close ties with Israel make it difficult to distance itself from the ongoing conflict.

The U.S. is seen as failing to produce a diplomatic solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, damaging its global diplomatic position.

The current geopolitical situation, with conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, hampers the U.S.'s ability to pivot towards Asia and address the China threat.

Mearsheimer concludes that the U.S. has lost focus due to its involvement in regional conflicts, which weakens its stance against China.

The rules-based order, championed by the West and the U.S., is in jeopardy due to the ongoing conflicts and U.S. actions.

Transcripts

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[Applause]

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well good evening my name is Tom Switzer

I'm the executive director at the Center

for Independence studies a Weare a

classical liberal public policy research

Think Tank based in Sydney and we've

been around for the best part of 50

years now John mimer is professor of

political science at the University of

Chicago he's also author of many

prominent books most notably the tragedy

of great power politics that was

published in 2001 which predicted that

the rise of China would not be peaceful

now John is according to the next

edition of the prestigious new

york-based Foreign Affairs magazine

quote one of the most famous political

scientists in history and that article

was written by a Critic and with that

please welcome John M

Arma thank you very much Tom for the

kind introduction and thank you all for

coming out tonight I'm amazed at how

many people are here uh the subject I

want to talk about for about 25 minutes

uh and then I'll be more than willing

after Peter makes his comments on my

comments to take any questions that

folks have uh is all about American

Grand strategy and my argument is that

the United States is losing

focus and you say to yourself what

exactly does that mean I believe that

the principal threat that the United

States faces in the world is the rise of

China and the possibility that China

might try to dominate Asia and I think

we have a deep-seated interest in

containing

China but what's happened is that the

United States has lost focus and it's

got

diverted into the Ukraine war in Europe

and it's now getting diverted into the

Middle East uh with the war between

Hamas and Israel and the United States

is therefore unable to Pivot completely

to Asia and I think this is a major

mistake for the United States and what I

want to do tonight is elaborate my

thinking on that main thesis okay the

best starting point for thinking about

this issue is just to talk about the

global balance of power it's very

understand very important to understand

that most of the young people in the

audience came of age during the unipolar

moment the period from from 1989 when

the Cold War ended up until about

2017 is commonly known as the unipolar

moment and what that means is that there

was only one great power on the planet

and that one great power was the United

States of America this is a world that

Australians almost to a person loved

because the United States provided

security for you and there was no China

threat there was no Soviet threat and

you were able to

grow economically in all sorts of ways

to become more prosperous this was the

unipolar moment but it's very important

to understand that what's happened is

that the unipolar moment is in the

rearview mirror it's gone we are now in

a multi-polar world where we went from

one great power to three great

Powers the United States China and

Russia and we now consider Russia a

great power because Vladimir Putin since

he took over in 2000 has brought the

Russians back from the dead most of you

know that in the 1990s Russia had

basically died Putin brought them back

from the dead so Russia's a great power

China's a great power and of course

Uncle Sam is a great power now it's

important to understand that Uncle Sam

is still the most powerful State on the

plan Planet but nevertheless China is a

pure competitor it is growing

economically it is growing militarily

and it is beginning to close in on the

United States and that's why I said to

you folks before China is the real

threat to the United States Russia is

the weakest of those three great Powers

okay it's very important to understand

that's the basic architecture of the

system at this point in time right we

went went from uniparity to

multipolarity we have three great Powers

Sam is one China is two and the Russians

are a distant third that's the

world let me switch gears now and just

talk a little bit little bit about

American Grand strategy and tie it to

that Global balance of

power for the United States of America

there are three areas that you fight and

die for where you expand blood and iron

those three areas of the world are

Europe East Asia and the Persian Gulf

you care about Europe and you care about

East Asia because that's where the great

powers are and if you're the United

States of America and you're a great

power you care about the other great

Powers the gulf is of great interest to

the United States and other countries on

the planet simply because it has oil and

oil is a very special resource and the

United States does not want any country

controlling all of the oil in the

Persian Gulf so the United States has a

deep-seated interest in maintaining a

balance of power in the Persian

Gulf now we have these three areas of

the world East Asia Europe and the gulf

historically the United States has cared

the most about Europe Europe has been

historically much more important than

East Asia and that's because the most

powerful great powers on the planet have

been located mainly in Europe Nazi

Germany was a much greater threat than

Imperial Japan the Soviet Union which

spanned Europe and Asia had most of its

military might concentrated in Europe so

we have long had a Europe first

policy that changed after

2017 for the first time in American

history East Asia is the most important

area of the world for us why is that the

case one very simple reason who's the

peer competitor out there it's not

Germany it's not Russia it's China where

is China located it's located in East

Asia therefore East Asia is the most

important area of the world and what I'm

telling you is that the United States

should

pivot right to East Asia and not get

bogged down in

Europe the Russians don't matter that

much they're not threat to dominate

Europe and the Persian Gulf does not

have a potential hegemon sitting in that

region there's no one country that's

going to take over all the oil so we're

in an Ideal World free to

Pivot but we've not fully pivoted and

what I'm telling you and I'm going to

lay this out in more detail is we are

going to get more deeply

involved in UK Ukraine and in the Middle

East than we already are and in both

cases the problem is not going to go

away the situation regarding Ukraine and

Russia is going to get worse with time

for us and the Israeli Palestinian

conflict and the problems in the Middle

East are going to get worse as well

Darkness ahead in both regions and what

is that mean it means it's difficult to

Pivot one final

point very important to understand that

if the United States is worried about

dealing with China and there's one other

great power in the system and that other

great power is Russia you want Russia on

your side of the Ledger in other words

if you're the United States and you're

looking at a China threat and there's

Russia you want Russia with you because

Russia represents power it is a great

power you want the Russians with you

against the Chinese what have have we

foolishly done we have foolishly pushed

the Russians into the arms of the

Chinese so the Russians and the Chinese

as you surely all know are tightly

Allied this is not in our interest it

should be Uncle Sam and the

Chinese I mean excuse me Uncle Sam and

the Russians that are tightly Allied

against China that's the basic situation

that we face this is why I say we've

lost focus and we're in trouble now what

I want to do is I want to unpack it for

you I want to unpack this argument in

Greater detail number one I want to

briefly talk about East Asia and what's

happened with regard to US policy toward

China that's pretty straightforward but

then I want to get into the tricky

issues one Ukraine and two the Middle

East talk about the Ukraine war and the

Israel Palestine conflict and its

potential for escalation and make my

point that that we're going to have a

tough time fully pivoting to East

Asia let's start with

Ukraine uh let me just give you a little

bit of background on the history of the

Ukraine problem so you have a feel for

sort of how this got started and why

we're in the present

situation when the Cold War ended uh the

United States debated whether or not to

expand NATO

Eastward and we decided in the early 90s

the Bill Clinton administration did that

we were going to expand NATO

Eastward and the Russians made it

unequivocally clear from the beginning

this was unacceptable they just were

opposed but they were very weak in the

1990s remember what I said before and

they were even very weak in the early

2000s this is before they are brought

back from the dead by Putin so in

1999 we shove NATO expansion down their

face down their throat when we bring in

Poland Hungary and the Czech Republic

that's 1999 okay then in 2004 we shove

another trunch of NATO expansion down

their throat this is when we bring in

the Baltic

states Romania Bulgaria Slovenia

Slovakia the Russians are hollering out

loud that this is unacceptable they

don't want it but they're too week and

we push it down their throat that's 2004

first trunch 99 second trunch 2004 in

April 2008 that's when we make the

really big mistake we say at Bucharest

the annual NATO Summit AT Bucharest

April 2008 we're bringing Ukraine and

Georgia into the

alliance Putin says at the time the

Russians make it unequivocally clear

across the board this this is is not

happening and Putin makes it clear that

he will destroy Ukraine before he allows

it to become a member of the alliance

the Americans think that they can just

shove it down Putin's throat just like

they did in 1999 just like they did in

2004 so we continue to push and not only

are we pushing NATO expansion we're

pushing EU expansion at the same time

and we're trying to foster a color

Revolution many of you I'm sure remember

the orange Revolution we were trying to

Foster in Ukraine what are we doing

there we're trying to turn Ukraine into

a liberal democracy that has a pro-west

orientation this Spooks the Russians

like you wouldn't believe a liberal

Democratic Ukraine that's in the EU

that's in NATO especially in NATO on

their

border the crisis breaks out in

2014 2008 Bucharest 2014 is when the

crisis breaks out that's when the

Russians take Crimea number one and two

that's when the Civil War breaks out

inside Ukraine in the

donbass so there's Big Trouble in

2014 and that trouble

continues

through

2021

one and at the end of 2021 the Russians

are scrambling to get some sort of

agreement the Americans won't agree and

on February 24th

2022 a war breaks out the present War

breaks out so you see the crisis broke

out in 2014 and that's when Crimea was

lost and then eight years later February

2022 the war that we now read about

every day

broke

out that's the

background what you want to now think

about is what's happening in that war

where is this train headed that's what

you want to

know now in 2022 remember the war breaks

out in February 2022 if you go from

February 2022 to the end of the year

let's say December 31st 2022 over that

time period the ukrainians do very well

well they do very well uh the Russians

are slow to mobilize and the Russians

are not a highly efficient Fighting

Force at that point in time and we're

beginning to think in 2022 we're going

to beat the Russians push him out of the

donbass pushed them out of Crimea and

really maybe even knocked them out of

the ranks of the great Powers so we're

playing hard ball with the Russians but

what the Russians do in the end at the

end of September 2022 is they mobilized

300,000 men and they begin to learn how

to fight on the battlefield and then

over the course of 2023 the year that

we're now in they are raising an

additional

425,000

men and they have an industrial base

that allows them to produce huge amounts

of artillery huge numbers of Tanks huge

numbers of aircraft huge numbers of

helicopters

right the ukrainians don't have that

capability they depend on us and you

know what we ran down our industrial

base during the unipolar moment we do

not we in the west this includes you

Australia we do not collectively have

the capability to produce lots of

artillery tubes artillery shells tanks

and so forth and so on the Russians do

now why does this

matter what you want to understand about

this war between Ukraine and Russia is

it's a war of ATT ition it's Muhammad

Ali right and Joe Frasier standing

toe-to-toe pounding The Living Daylights

out of each other that's what it is

think World War I on the Western Front

okay that's the kind of War this is

nothing fancy about this one question

you want to ask yourself is who wins in

a war of attrition where two armies are

head-to-head two factors matter the

population size of each country because

that tells you how many soldiers you can

send to the front population size and

how much artillery each side

has uh when I went to West Point and I

was in the American Military we were

taught that artillery is the king of

battle right and a war of attrition that

is certainly true so the question is

what does the population ratio look like

between the two sides what's the

artillery ratio look like you want to

know what the population ratio is it's 5

to1 in the Russians favor you want to

know what the artillery ratio looks like

it's somewhere between 5 to1 and 10:1

and most people think it's 10 to1 at

this point in time in the Russians favor

and we cannot we in the west cannot

Rectify that

imbalance so you have the situation

where the ukrainians are outnumbered

population-wise 5 to one they're

outnumbered probably s to one 10 to one

in terms of artillery can't improve

either one of those situations and in a

war of attrition that's the kiss of

death and furthermore on top of all that

as you know they launched a counter

offensive on 4 June of this year my God

the ukrainians have suffered enormous

casualties with these offensives we've

encouraged them to attack the

Russians it was foolish in the extreme

in my opinion the ukrainians should have

remained on the defensive they have

suffered such casualties and they

already were down 5 to1 population wise

and down in terms of

artillery they're going to lose they're

going to lose there's no way the

ukrainians can

win

right

uh what does losing mean in this case

the Russians are not going to conquer

the whole country it would be a massive

mistake it's a huge piece of real estate

Ukraine and furthermore there are lots

of people especially in the central part

and the western part of UK Ukraine or

ethnic ukrainians who hate the Russians

occupying that area would be insane what

the Russians are going to end up doing

is they now control close to

23% of Ukraine I believe they'll try to

take another 20% they have annexed they

have annexed the Russians have annexed

four oblas plus Korea and I believe that

they will try to innex another four

oblas and at the same same time they're

going to go to Great Lengths to turn

Ukraine into a dysfunctional rump State

a dysfunctional rum State they will

interfere in the politics of Ukraine

they will interfere with the Ukrainian

economy and they will do everything they

can to wreck Ukraine and keep it wrecked

as they said they would in 2008 and they

have consistently said

afterwards now the problem here I mean

aside from the fact that this is a

devastating defeat for Ukraine the

problem is Ukraine won't be knocked out

of the fight

completely and what you will get at some

point is not a peace agreement you're

not going to get a peace agreement here

you're going to get a frozen conflict

the fighting will stop there'll be a

ceasefire and you'll have a frozen

conflict it'll be a lot like Korea on

the 38th parallel as you all know North

Korea on one side South Korea on the

other you'll have a fro Frozen conflict

and the potential for escalation will be

ever present and you want to understand

the United States will be

involved in Ukraine in Eastern Europe

doing everything it can to damage Russia

we will not lose gracefully we will not

lose in Ukraine and pivot to Asia we

will stay in Ukraine we will continue to

support Ukraine we will continue to look

for opportunities to screw the Russians

and the Russians will look for

opportunities to screw us you'll have

this nasty security competition in

Eastern Europe there's no end in sight

to the trouble that we are now facing in

Ukraine which by the way tells you what

a massive mistake we made in April 2008

trying to bring Ukraine into

NATO but my bottom line to you here is

that that makes it very difficult to

Pivot so that's the Ukraine issue and if

I had come here

last month instead of coming this month

at this point in time I would have

stopped the talk

here right but now we have another

massive problem confronting us

that I don't know who saw coming I

certainly didn't the Israelis certain

didn't certainly didn't see it coming

but if you go back to October

6th it looked like the Middle East was a

peaceful region uh compared to what was

going on in Eastern Europe uh it looked

like a

remarkably um uh peaceful area

uh and Jake suvin as you know basically

said that uh that the Middle East hadn't

looked so good in a long time but then

came October 7th and Hamas attacked

Israel and uh in a deadly effective

way and of course the Israelis uh have

reacted by declaring war on Hamas and

you now have this giant conflict between

Israel and Hamas that threatens to

escalate to where Hezbollah might come

in Conflict might break out on the West

Bank or even the Iranians might come in

so this is a really dangerous situation

and much like

Ukraine we're going to sink deeper into

the mud here and this one's not not

going away anytime soon right now why do

I say that first thing you want to keep

in mind when you talk about Israel and

the United States is that the two

countries are joined at the hip there's

is no question about that I don't think

this is a controversial issue I don't

think you've ever had a closer

relationship between any two countries

than you have between Israel and the

United States so it's very hard for the

United States in any meaningful way to

distance itself from Israel so that's

the first point you want to keep in mind

second point you want to keep in mind is

that the tap root of the problem here is

the Israel Palestine or the Israel

Palestinian conflict that that's the tap

route and you just have to understand

what that conflict looks like this is a

longstanding conflict as you all know

but you just want to understand its

essence because that tells you a lot

about what's happening now and what is

likely to happen over

time the United States has been deeply

interested in creating a two-state

solution as most of you I'm sure know in

uh Israel and what the United States has

been interested in doing is creating a

Palestinian state in the West Bank and

in Gaza and in East Jerusalem living

next door to a Jewish State

Israel we have failed we've not been

able to push the Israelis to accept that

and uh there's no two-state solution so

what the Israelis now have and which the

government in Israel wants is greater

Israel greater Israel includes the West

Bank Gaza and 1967 Israel or or green

line Israel okay that's greater Israel

the key point you want to keep in mind

is that there are approximately

7.3 million Palestinians and

approximately

7.3 million Israeli Jews in Greater

Israel there is rough equality between

Palestinians and Israeli

Jews you just want to think about that

so when you think about Israel and you

think about Israel as the Jewish state

which is completely understandable you

want to understand that that Jewish

state has as many Palestinians in it as

it has Jews and by the way there's very

prominent uh demog uh demographic expert

who is Israeli who argues that there are

slightly more Palestinians than there

are Jews inside greater Israel and

furthermore when you look at demographic

Trends over time they're going to be

more Palestinians than there are Jews

and this is a Jewish state so the

question is what do you do here uh and

what has happened is that the Israelis

do not want to give equal rights to the

Palestinians because if they gave equal

rights to the Palestinians Israel Would

S cease to be a Jewish State because

they're more Palestinians than there are

Jews if not now certainly in the future

so in the case of the Palestinians who

are in Gaza right basically they have

been cordoned off they have been

isolated in Gaza and it is common place

to refer to Gaza as the largest open air

prison in the world and if you read

virtually any account of what life is

like for those Palestinians who live in

Gaza it is absolutely horrible there is

just no question about about that they

live under horrible conditions in effect

in a prison you want to understand that

Israel controls the borders around Gaza

and it controls the air above Gaza these

are not disputable issues and again

they're about 2.1 million of those 7.3

million Palestinians in Gaza and the

fact is that the Israelis who have been

playing hard ball with the

Palestinian since 1948 when the state of

Israel was

created are in a situation where the

Palestinians are going to erupt from

time to time most of us in this audience

have heard of the first inapa we have

heard of the second inapa the inaps were

uprisings by the Palestinians the

Palestinians want want their own nation

state just as the Jews wanted their own

nation state it's perfectly

understandable that the zionists were

interested in coming to Palestine and

creating a Jewish State a Jewish nation

state that's completely understandable

but as my mother taught me when I was a

little boy what's good for the goose is

good for the gander and if the Jews want

their own nation state are you surprised

that the Palestinians want their own

nation state no an American policy maker

especially American pres presidents

going back to Jimmy Carter understood

this completely and put enormous should

have put enormous pressure on Israel to

accept a two-state solution but we were

incapable of doing that we could not put

great pressure on Israel and the end

result is you have a greater Israel and

inside that greater Israel are 7.3

million

Palestinians and just to take this a

step further it's very controversial to

refer to Israel as an apartheid state

given how they treat the

Palestinians but Human Rights Watch

Amnesty International and bet selum bet

selum is one of the leading human rights

groups in the world and it's an Israeli

Human Rights group Human Rights Watch

Amnesty International and bet selum all

have produced significant reports that

label Israel as an aparte state so this

is the reality that you now

face and the problem is there is no way

the Israelis are ever going to agree to

a two-state solution because the

political center of gravity in Israel

has moved far to the right over time and

is likely to move further to the right

over time if you look at the Israeli

demographic

situation uh is Israeli women have large

numbers of babies uh compared to Western

birth rates but your average Ultra

Orthodox woman has about seven

babies so what's happening is that the

ultra Orthodox who now represent 133% of

the population will probably represent

about 30% of the population in 2050 or6

they're growing significantly in number

and the ultra Orthodox I mean they're a

problem for a variety of reasons for

Israel because first of all they don't

serve in the military secondly uh the

husbands don't work and in effect live

on welfare uh but furthermore their

politics are far to the right the old

Orthodox are not going to be sympathetic

to a two-state solution furthermore

after what happened on October 7th what

do you think the Israelis are going

going to say when you say let's move

towards a two-state solution they're

going to look at you like you're crazy

given what happened on October 7th so

all of this is just to say the only hope

in my opinion of ever

settling this conflict between the

Palestinians and the Jews inside of

Greater Israel was a two-state solution

and a two-state solution is not going to

happen that train has left the station

and again as I said to you it's very

important to understand that the United

States has joined at the hip with the

Israelis and therefore uh as the

situation continues to faster in Israel

we are inextricably bound up in it let

me just take this a step further talk

about the Israeli Palestinian

conflict first of all we have a

deep-seated interest in stability in the

Middle East we were working before

October 7th you all remember with Saudi

Arabia to get Saudi Arabia and Israel to

reach some sort of accommodation the

Abraham Accords that we had helped

facilitate during the Trump years

between Israel and Bahrain Israel in

Morocco and Israel in the United Arab

Emirates where relations between Israel

and those three countries had

significantly improved the Biden

Administration was trying to get another

Abraham Accord this one which would have

been the big enchilada involving Israel

and Saudi Arabia that's all gone now

Saudi Arabia is adamantly opposed to

what's happening uh with regard to the

Israeli uh war against the

Palestinians uh there's a possibility

Hezbollah may come into this conflict

the Israelis in Hezbollah are exchanging

rocket fire up on Israel's northern

border there's a possibility that Iran

might come in as I said before there's a

possibility that conflict will break out

on the West Bank approximately 90

Palestinians have been killed on the

West Bank since October 7th the

potential for this one spiraling out of

control within the context of the Middle

East is really uh very very worrisome

and by the way you understand you know

we sent this Armada this aircraft

carrier battle group The Gerald USS

Gerald Ford aircraft carrier battle

group off the coast put it off the coast

of Israel it shot down three cruise

missiles US forces shot down three

cruise missiles that the houthis and

Yemen had fired at Israel so in a very

important way we've already been

involved in of course a very tiny way in

the fighting and if this one spins out

of control in a big way we're likely to

get Dragged In and furthermore as I told

you there's no hope of this going away

and anytime soon then there's the

Diplomatic Dimension to this the

Russians and the Chinese just love this

situation right and they're saying all

sorts of things about how the Americans

failed to produce a diplomatic solution

that would have given the Palestinians a

state of their own and this is of course

a message that resonates all around the

planet right we're in all sorts of

trouble in the Arab world this may lead

to another Oil

Embargo um uh and and furthermore in the

global South the global South we're very

interested in winning the allegiance of

the global South especially to help us

in Ukraine we're in deep trouble in the

global South as a result of this so in

terms of stability in the Middle East in

terms of our diplomatic position around

the world as a result of the Arab

Israeli conflict or the Palestinian

Israeli conflict we're we're in deep

trouble right and again this is one of

these situations that has no solution I

mean that I can see I hope I'm wrong I

hope I'm humiliated and a year from now

when I return when Tom brings me back I

can say I was wrong right the same thing

is true with Ukraine but I don't see the

Ukraine situation or the Middle East

situation looking any better brings me

to my bottom line we have a pure

competitor the Biden Administration as

far as I'm concerned to a person will

tell you that the principal threat the

United States of America bases is China

there is nobody who disagrees that China

is our biggest threat but what I'm

telling you is we're in a

situation where we can't fully pivot to

Asia to deal with that threat because

we're pinned down in the Middle East now

and before that in

Ukraine

furthermore

furthermore the Russians who should be

on our side because of our foolish

policies have pushed them on to the side

of the Chinese

this is not good and the final point

that I'll leave you with is as you know

we in the west and I'm sure this is true

many Australians love the rules-based

order right we always talk about the

rules-based order we think it's

important to obey the rules and the west

of course the United States has played a

key role in establishing that

rules-based order which is in our

interest but the rules based order is in

tatters as result of Ukraine the Middle

East uh and assorted other forms of

behavior by the United States so all of

this is to say we are in the Deep kimchi

thank

you for decades CIS has been a fiercely

independent voice working hard to

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