Why There Are No Flights Between India and China

Summary

The video details the unprecedented suspension of direct flights between India and China since 2020, despite their close proximity and large populations. This isolation stems from a combination of the pandemic and rising tensions over a disputed border, particularly after a deadly clash in the Galwan Valley. Despite both nations’ economic interests and China's eagerness to resume normal travel, India has imposed restrictions on Chinese companies and travelers, viewing the situation as leverage to address border disputes. This prolonged stalemate reflects deeper geopolitical and economic shifts between the two powers.

Takeaways

• ✈️ As of September 6th, 2024, there have been no direct commercial flights between India and mainland China for 1,631 days due to geopolitical tensions.
• 🌏 India and China, despite being the two most populous nations, are among the only countries in a 3,000-mile radius of Beijing without direct flights.
• 🗺️ The primary cause of the halted flights stems from the disputed border between India and China, split into three contentious sections: Eastern, Middle, and Western.
• 🛑 A deadly clash in the Galwan Valley in June 2020 between Indian and Chinese soldiers, involving stone-age weapons, marked a significant turning point in their relations.
• 🚫 Following the 2020 conflict, India imposed restrictions on Chinese companies, apps, and travel, while China fortified its border, worsening their diplomatic relations.
• 📉 China's economic momentum is slowing, with reduced air travel and spending, while India experiences a travel boom and infrastructure growth.
• 🔒 Despite both nations lifting international travel bans post-pandemic, India and China have not resumed direct flights due to unresolved border disputes.
• ⚔️ Tensions remain high along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), with frequent military encounters and no demilitarized buffer zone, increasing the risk of further conflict.
• 🛠️ Any potential resolution will require significant diplomatic efforts and creative problem-solving, as both sides maintain differing priorities on border negotiations and resuming normal relations.
• 📈 India’s growing population and economic momentum position it as an emerging global player, contrasting with China's current economic challenges and declining population growth.

Q & A

Why was China Eastern Flight 564 significant in March 2020?

It was the last flight between India and mainland China for over four years, marking a significant halt in direct travel between the two countries due to escalating tensions and the COVID-19 pandemic.

How many days have passed without a direct flight between India and mainland China as of September 6, 2024?

As of September 6, 2024, it has been 1,631 days since the last direct flight between India and mainland China.

What was the state of the Sino-Indian relationship before the 2020 incident?

Before the 2020 incident, the relationship was acrimonious but with moments of optimism. In October 2019, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi met in person, promising to elevate their relationship, though underlying tensions remained.

What is the significance of the Galwan Valley in the Sino-Indian conflict?

The Galwan Valley is in the disputed western section of the Sino-Indian border, where Indian and Chinese troops clashed in June 2020. The deadly confrontation marked the first in 45 years, escalating tensions between the two nations.

Why are direct flights between India and China still suspended despite both countries reopening international travel?

The suspension continues due to unresolved border tensions, particularly the 2020 Galwan Valley incident. India and China are at odds over which issue to address first — flights or the border dispute.

Why is Aksai Chin considered strategically important despite its inhospitable conditions?

Aksai Chin is strategically important because it contains a road that connects the Chinese provinces of Xinjiang and Tibet, allowing China to quickly reinforce its border.

What was the impact of the 2020 Galwan Valley clash on India’s actions toward Chinese companies?

India retaliated by banning Chinese apps, including TikTok, imposing new rules on Chinese companies, and restricting Chinese firms from its networks. India also made it nearly impossible for Chinese citizens to obtain visas.

What economic shift has taken place between India and China in recent years?

China’s economy, once synonymous with boundless growth, is now slowing, while India’s economy is growing, especially in travel infrastructure. India has experienced a travel boom and is rapidly expanding its airports and infrastructure.

Why does the border dispute between India and China remain unresolved?

Both countries have different priorities in resolving the issue. China wants to resume flights and improve relations, while India insists on resolving the border dispute first before restoring normal diplomatic and travel ties.

What makes the disputed areas along the Sino-Indian border prone to conflict?

The lack of a demilitarized buffer zone and overlapping interpretations of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) mean both sides feel compelled to patrol these regions to assert claims, leading to inevitable conflicts.

Outlines

00:00

✈️ The Last Flight Between India and China

On March 20th, 2020, China Eastern Flight 564 took off from New Delhi and landed in Shanghai, marking the last direct flight between India and China for over four years. As of September 6th, 2024, no scheduled commercial flights have resumed. This unprecedented halt in air travel between the two populous nations has lasted for 1,631 days, highlighting a deep isolation between them. While most neighboring countries have maintained direct flights to China, India remains an outlier despite having significant economic and geographic reasons for frequent air travel.

05:02

🌏 The Contentious Border Dispute

India and China share the world's longest disputed border, divided into three sections. The Eastern section stems from a 1914 agreement between British India, Tibet, and China, which China never recognized. The middle section is contested due to its proximity to India’s vulnerable Siliguri Corridor, while the Western section, Aksai Chin, is a high-altitude desert controlled by China but claimed by India. This region holds strategic value due to a Chinese road connecting Xinjiang and Tibet, leading to conflict during the 1962 war and continued tension over the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC).

10:08

⚔️ Deadly Clash in the Galwan Valley

In June 2020, a violent clash broke out in the Galwan Valley between Indian and Chinese soldiers, marking the first deadly conflict along the disputed border in 45 years. The confrontation, triggered by the destruction of a Chinese-built structure, involved rudimentary weapons due to a ban on firearms. Twenty Indian soldiers and dozens of Chinese soldiers died. Both nations accuse the other of provoking the incident, and it marked a turning point in Sino-Indian relations, as India became increasingly hostile towards Chinese companies and citizens.

15:12

📉 Strained Diplomatic and Economic Ties

The fallout from the 2020 clash led India to retaliate economically and diplomatically. India banned Chinese apps, imposed restrictions on Chinese firms, and made it nearly impossible for Chinese citizens to get visas. In contrast, China fortified its border and gained military advantages. While China wants to resume flights and normalize relations, India is hesitant without addressing border disputes first. Meanwhile, China's slowing economy contrasts with India’s booming travel and infrastructure investments, shifting the economic momentum in India's favor.

Keywords

💡Sino-Indian relations

This refers to the complex and often tense relationship between China and India, two of the most populous countries in the world. In the video, it explores the deterioration of this relationship, especially after the 2020 border conflict in the Galwan Valley, which halted direct flights and other diplomatic engagements.

💡Galwan Valley conflict

The Galwan Valley conflict refers to the violent clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers in June 2020 along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). This incident, where soldiers fought with improvised weapons, resulted in deaths on both sides and marked a turning point in relations, leading to the ongoing aviation and diplomatic freeze between the two countries.

💡Line of Actual Control (LAC)

The LAC is an informal boundary that separates Indian-controlled territory from Chinese-controlled territory in the disputed regions between the two nations. The two countries have differing interpretations of where the LAC lies, leading to overlapping claims and military confrontations, such as the 2020 Galwan Valley clash.

💡Aksai Chin

Aksai Chin is a disputed area controlled by China but claimed by India. Though it is largely inhospitable and lacks resources, its strategic value lies in its roads, which connect Chinese provinces like Xinjiang and Tibet. This makes it a critical point of contention in the broader Sino-Indian territorial disputes.

💡Border fortification

Following the 2020 conflict, China has fortified its side of the disputed border, particularly in Aksai Chin, constructing infrastructure that would allow it to station up to 120,000 troops. This has intensified India's concerns over China's intentions and further delayed the normalization of relations.

💡Economic imbalance

The economic imbalance between China and India refers to the fact that while India imports a large amount of goods from China ($120 billion in 2019), China imports much less from India. This trade deficit has become a leverage point for India, which retaliated against China post-2020 by banning apps like TikTok and placing restrictions on Chinese businesses.

💡Aviation freeze

The aviation freeze refers to the cessation of direct flights between China and India, which has lasted since 2020. Despite both countries resuming international travel after the pandemic, no flights have been restored between them due to lingering diplomatic tensions and unresolved border issues.

💡Tibet dispute

The Tibet dispute plays a significant role in Sino-Indian tensions. China’s occupation of Tibet and India’s protection of the Dalai Lama, who fled to India in 1959, have been long-standing issues. China does not recognize the 1914 agreement that defined the Tibetan-Indian border, further complicating territorial disputes.

💡Strategic chokepoints

Strategic chokepoints like the Siliguri Corridor (or 'Chicken’s Neck') are crucial regions that connect India's northeastern states to the rest of the country. This narrow land corridor is strategically important and highly vulnerable, especially in the context of the ongoing border tensions with China.

💡Post-pandemic geopolitical shift

The post-pandemic geopolitical shift refers to the changing dynamics between India and China in the aftermath of COVID-19. While both countries resumed international travel by 2022, their relationship remained strained due to unresolved military conflicts and border disputes, showcasing a broader shift in regional power and economic momentum.

Highlights

China Eastern Flight 564 took off from New Delhi on March 20, 2020, marking the last direct flight between India and China for over four years.

As of September 6th, 2024, there have been no direct flights between India and mainland China for 1,631 days.

India and China share the longest disputed border in the world, divided into three contentious sections.

The 1914 treaty defining the Eastern border between Tibet and British India is disputed by China, which considers it an 'unequal' and 'unfair' imperialist agreement.

A deadly clash occurred in the Galwan Valley on June 15, 2020, involving stone-age weapons and resulting in 20 Indian and an estimated 35-43 Chinese soldiers' deaths.

The Sino-Indian relationship took a significant turn in 2020, with India retaliating against China by banning apps, restricting companies, and imposing travel limitations.

China and India, the two most populous countries, have been in a prolonged diplomatic and travel freeze despite the resumption of international travel elsewhere.

India has restricted visa applications for Chinese citizens, leading to a significant drop in approvals from 200,000 in 2019 to just 2,000 in 2024.

China has fortified its border with new structures and bridges to house up to 120,000 soldiers, complicating any potential diplomatic resolutions.

China and India have economic asymmetries: China imports significantly less from India, which is viewed by New Delhi as a liability.

India is experiencing a travel boom, while China’s air travel has significantly declined, with major Chinese airports falling in global rankings.

India’s economy is gaining momentum with significant investment in infrastructure, while China’s economic growth slows.

The current situation remains tense, with both countries building up their military capabilities along the disputed border.

China wishes to resume flights and normalize relations first, while India insists on resolving border disputes before normalizing travel.

The transcript suggests a potential future confrontation, highlighting the ongoing risk of conflict between the two nuclear-armed nations.

Transcripts

On March 20th, 2020, China Eastern  Flight 564 took off from Indira  

Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi.

Five hours and twenty-four minutes later,  

it landed uneventfully in Shanghai — just as it  had two days earlier and five days before that.

But what none of the two-hundred  passengers onboard that Airbus A330 knew,  

indeed what no one could have known,  is that this would be the last flight  

between the two countries in 2020 …and 2021  …and 2022 …and 2023 …and, so far, 2024.

As of September 6th, not a  single scheduled, commercial,  

passenger plane has flown directly  between India and mainland China for  

sixteen-hundred-and-thirty-one days. That’s  nearly four and a half years — half a decade.

Needless to say, this degree of isolation  is virtually unheard of in the 21st century,  

particularly between the two  most populous nations on earth.

Of the 32 countries and territories within a  3,000-mile radius of Beijing, 29 have at least  

one direct flight to China, including Afghanistan,  Brunei, Taiwan, and even North Korea. The three  

exceptions are Palau, a 300-island archipelago  in the Pacific with just 18,000 people, the tiny  

Kingdom of Bhutan, so sparsely populated that  it has not a single traffic light in the entire  

country, and, conspicuously, India, home to nearly  as many people as all the other 31 put together.

With 1.417 and 1.412 billion people respectively,  

India and China are together  home to one-third of humanity.

They should, in other words, make  for frequent and profitable flights.

And, indeed, they did. In  December 2019, there were 539.

After all, there’s really no other option.

The Chinese city of Lhasa, for example,  lies just 200 miles northeast of Sikkim,  

India. Yet getting there by car would require  a 120-hour, 4,000-mile detour through Myanmar,  

Thailand, Laos, and Vietnam thanks to a  little something called Mount Everest.

The steep, inhospitable Tibetan Plateau,  with its 20,000-plus-foot mountains,  

makes any form of land travel nearly impossible.

Flying, by contrast, takes about five  hours between Delhi and Shanghai.

Or, rather, it did. Today,  

the fastest journey takes twice as long  and requires a layover in Hong Kong.

As you can probably guess, this unprecedented  state of affairs began with an unprecedented  

pandemic. In March 2020, both India and China  banned virtually all international arrivals.

But two years later, India resumed regular  travel. A year after that, China did the same.

Yet still, no flights between them.

And that’s because of what happened  here, back in the summer of 2020.

But first, some quick background…

This is modern-day China. This is India.  

And these are the countries of  Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal.

China and India share the longest disputed border  in the world. It’s split into three sections.

First, the Eastern one.

In 1914, representatives from  India, then ruled by Britain,  

China, then ruled by the Republic of China,  and Tibet, then a de-facto independent nation  

before China seized control in 1950,  met to discuss the latter’s status.

Tibet and British India then agreed  on this line as their Eastern border,  

which the Republic of India  still maintains to this day.

China, however, never recognized the sovereignty  of Tibet. The Tibetan government, it maintains,  

never had the right to sign that 1914  agreement. Therefore, the border is invalid.

Moreover, it considers treaties like  this one to be ‘unequal’ and ‘unfair’  

abuses of imperialist power —  in this case, by Great Britain.

For cultural and historical reasons, it says, the  actual line is way down here. It calls this area,  

which is currently controlled  by India, quote, “South Tibet.”

Next, is this middle section — the  shortest and least contentious.

China claims a small, 34-square-mile  sliver of land here which overlaps  

with claims made by Bhutan, an independent  country with extremely close ties to India.

Though it may be geographically trivial, this  area is strategically significant because of its  

proximity to the Siliguri Corridor, also known as  the “Chicken’s Neck” — a chokepoint just 14 miles  

across at its shortest point which connects  India’s northeast to the rest of the country.

Finally, and most hotly  contested, is the Western section.

Here, India claims this vast area  controlled by China called “Aksai Chin.”

Although twice the size of New Jersey, the great  irony is that this 15,000-square-mile region,  

like much of their disputed border, is among  the least useful land on the planet. Its dry  

desert climate means almost no water and  its high elevation means almost no air,  

making it virtually worthless  in every conceivable way.

…Except one: strategically. A road through  Aksai Chin connects the Chinese provinces  

of Xinjiang and Tibet. It also enables  China to quickly reinforce its border.

Thus, land that no one bothered to settle for  

thousands of years has become  some of the most sought-after.

In 1962, China launched a brief but deadly  war here and elsewhere along the border,  

killing or wounding thousands of Indian soldiers.

Today, both sides acknowledge an informal “Line  of Actual Control” — ‘LAC’ — an unsanctioned,  

temporary, and mutually  disliked boundary placeholder.

The only problem is that  they disagree on where it is.

Not only is there no demilitarized buffer zone,  

a “no-man’s land” that would physically  separate their armies and deter conflict,  

as on the Korean peninsula, but there are areas  where the two interpretations of the LAC overlap.

And because there exists a certain “use it or  lose it” mentality, both sides feel the need  

to actively occupy and patrol these disputed  regions to assert their respective claims,  

virtually guaranteeing conflict  between the two nuclear powers.

Far from kicking the can down the road  indefinitely, as in the Korean DMZ,  

this makeshift ‘solution’  actually escalates tensions.

It’s only a matter of time before a Chinese and an  

Indian patrol encounter one another  in one of these overlapping regions.

And that’s exactly what  happened in the summer of 2020.

On June 15th, after weeks of rising  tensions, Indian soldiers entered  

this disputed area in the “Galwan Valley”  on the Western section of their border to  

verify whether Chinese soldiers had  withdrawn as previously agreed upon.

There, they discovered and began destroying a  Chinese-built structure. Exactly what happened  

next is unclear, but we know that fighting soon  broke out between Indian and Chinese soldiers.

Because of a 1996 agreement  not to fire guns or explosives,  

this involved stone-age weapons like  rocks, sticks, and makeshift clubs.

And while this was far from their first  physical encounter, it was the first in 45  

years to turn deadly. Tragically, 20 Indian and  a suspected 35-43 Chinese soldiers were killed.

Both sides accuse the other of provoking  the incident by altering the status quo.

India argues that it all began with China building  

aggressively in territory it had not previously  occupied, including on India’s side of the LAC.

China, meanwhile, claims this construction  was merely a reaction to India first building  

on China’s side of the LAC, which would  have granted it a new tactical advantage.

India claims the confrontation was planned by  

Beijing. China says it was  spontaneous and accidental.

Whatever the circumstances,  the fallout was severe.

Now, the Sino-Indian relationship  has always been somewhat acrimonious.

Pakistan is one of China’s closest allies  and one of India’s most bitter enemies.

In 1959, the 14th (and current) Dalai Lama fled  from Chinese-occupied Tibet to Dharamshala,  

India, where he has since remained as  a refugee under the state’s protection.

More recently, India has accused China  of encroaching on its regional sphere  

of influence in places like the  Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Nepal.

Still, there were occasional moments over the past  60-odd years when real progress seemed possible.

In fact, one of these moments came just  eight months before the tragedy in 2020,  

when Xi and Modi met in person,  

promising to take their relationship to  “greater heights” the following year.

Beneath this enduring optimism was the basic  recognition that if they could somehow set aside  

their differences, India and China would  be an economic force to be reckoned with.

China, of course, is famous for its  large-scale, low-cost manufacturing.

Its rare combination of extensive infrastructure,  

entrepreneurial local governments, and large  supplies of vulnerable, non-unionized labor  

conspire to create an unmatched scale,  speed, and concentration of production.

Meanwhile, nearly every major multinational  corporation has outsourced some portion of  

its tech support, programming,  or engineering to Bangalore.

China has the hardware and India, the software.

But, alas, this was not to be.

For an already skeptical New Delhi, the  2020 incident was the final straw — a  

decisive turning point from which there has been  — four and a half years later — no going back.

Beijing, it became convinced, was  committed to asserting its strength abroad.  

Drained of all hope it once  had, India began retaliating.

And the easiest targets were Chinese companies.

Each year, India imports one hundred and  twenty billion dollars worth of Chinese goods,  

more than it does from any other country, and  nearly three times as much as the United States.

Yet, despite being a much larger economy,  

China only imports 15% as much from India  — an imbalance that became a liability.

The Indian government banned hundreds  of Chinese apps, including TikTok,  

imposed new rules and restrictions on Chinese  companies, banned Huawei from its networks,  

and began investigating Chinese  firms for alleged tax violations.

Another easy target were travelers.

India has made it nearly impossible for  Chinese citizens to apply for visas. First,  

unlike the vast majority of the world,  they can’t apply online. In fact,  

they must do so in China, even if they  live abroad. They’re only told the exact  

requirements after applying. And  these requirements often change.

Unsurprisingly, nearly all  applications are rejected.

According to one recent estimate, a  mere 2,000 visas have been granted  

to Chinese nationals so far this year,  down from two-hundred thousand in 2019.

And because they’ve also stopped  renewing each other’s journalist visas,  

it’s quite likely that there are currently zero  Indian journalists left in China and vice versa.

Now, ordinarily, after four  long years of hostility,  

both countries might be eager to  restore some diplomatic momentum.  

And a natural place to start building  trust would be to resume flights.

But since the 2020 hostilities,  China has fortified its border,  

building new bridges and structures that would  enable it to move and house up to 120,000  

soldiers in Aksai Chin. In other words, China  has since gained a strategic military advantage.

Thus, while Beijing is keen to  move on, thereby legitimizing,  

solidifying, and securing tacit  acceptance of its advances,  

New Delhi views this as a concession and  sees the broader relationship as leverage.

China would prefer to first resume  flights and then discuss their border.  

India would prefer to first discuss  their border and then resume flights.

There’s also been a quiet shift, over the past few  years, in their relative economic trajectories.

“China” was once synonymous with  boundless, spectacular growth. But  

its economy is now growing more slowly  and its consumers are spending far less.

This is particularly acute in  terms of travel. Since 2019,  

the number of flights to the U.S. and Canada  are down 63%. To France, 57%, and to Taiwan, 70.

It doesn’t help that many countries are  now banned from Russian airspace, turning,  

for example, a British Airways flight between  Beijing and London from ten to thirteen hours.

Between 2019 and 2023, China’s Beijing Capital  

Airport fell from the second busiest  in the world down to twenty-third.

Meanwhile, India is in the midst of a travel boom.

Over that same period, Indira Gandhi  Airport climbed from 16th to 10th place.

Since 2014, India has doubled its  number of airports, from just 74  

to 148. And just look at this explosion of  investment in rail and road infrastructure.

Now, in absolute terms, the Indian economy  still pales in comparison to the Chinese one.

To put these numbers in perspective,  

United Airlines alone currently flies more  aircraft than every Indian airline put together.

But, in terms of momentum, China is quickly  losing it, while India is gaining speed. In  

the 1980s and 90s, it was China’s  potential, as much as its reality,  

that drew foreign investment, created excitement,  and sustained the narrative of its meteoric rise.

Today, it’s India’s turn to shine. In 2022,  

its population — still growing —  passed China’s, which is now shrinking.

India can’t build fast enough — last  year, one of its airlines placed an  

order for 500 Airbus A320s — the largest  purchase in commercial aviation history.  

And yet just 3% of the country’s population  has ever flown on an airplane. In other words,  

there’s still an incredible  supply of untapped growth.

All of this is to say: Beijing feels a newfound  sense of urgency. It’s eager to get its economy  

back on track, resume normal travel, and  stabilize its relationship with India.

New Delhi, on the other hand, is in no such  hurry. The result is a half-decade stalemate.

Sadly, even if they do restore ties tomorrow  — a real possibility — sooner or later,  

Chinese and Indian troops will  meet again at their border.

And when they do, escalation may prove even  harder to prevent than before. Several months  

after the June 2020 confrontation, both countries  accused each other of firing warning shots — a  

clear violation of their previous agreement.  Even what few rules and restraints kept a (very  

tenuous) peace in years past have since eroded,  leaving them dangerously vulnerable to conflict.

If and when they do achieve a  true diplomatic breakthrough,  

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