AI is going to drive a new globalization: Ian Bremmer

Summary

In this CogX talk, Ian discusses the transformative impact of AI on geopolitics, highlighting both its potential to drive a new era of globalization and the challenges it poses. He emphasizes AI's ability to democratize access to technology, thereby enhancing human capital worldwide. However, he also warns of the risks of AI falling into the wrong hands, leading to hacking and the development of harmful technologies. Ian calls for global leaders and policymakers to understand AI's implications and stresses the need for a United Nations-driven process to establish an intergovernmental panel on AI, akin to the IPCC for climate change, to ensure a coordinated global response.

Takeaways

• 🌐 AI is seen as a transformative force for geopolitical order, with the potential to drive a new wave of globalization.
• 📱 AI can democratize access to technology, empowering individuals worldwide and enhancing human capital.
• 💡 AI's decentralized nature means it's not confined to state actors, allowing non-state entities like tech companies to wield significant influence.
• 🛡️ AI's dual-use nature poses risks, as it can be used for both beneficial purposes like vaccine development and malicious ones like creating malware.
• 🌍 The rise of AI challenges traditional geopolitical dynamics, necessitating a rethink of how power and governance are structured.
• 🚀 Global leaders are rapidly becoming aware of AI's implications, signaling a shift from ignorance to active engagement with the technology.
• 🏛️ There is a growing recognition that AI governance needs to involve not just governments but also tech companies due to their pivotal role.
• 🌱 The analogy of AI to climate change suggests the need for a global, UN-driven process to understand and regulate AI's impact.
• 📉 The financial market's regulatory approach could serve as a model for creating a 'geotechnology stability board' to manage AI's risks.
• 🔄 AI's ubiquity and open-source nature mean that competition over it is less about exclusivity and more about ensuring stable, global functionality.

Q & A

How does Ian view the impact of AI on geopolitical order?

Ian believes AI is transformative for geopolitical order, both positively and negatively. It can drive a new globalization, improve human capital, and enhance capabilities in various fields, but it also poses risks due to its accessibility and potential for misuse by non-state actors.

What does Ian see as the potential of AI in driving a new globalization?

AI can facilitate the emergence of a global middle class by providing access to technology through smartphones, which can improve efficiencies in medicine, education, and industrial and scientific processes.

How does Ian think AI can disrupt traditional geopolitical dynamics?

AI, being a distributed technology, can be used by anyone to code, hack, or develop various applications, including military drones and viruses. This can lead to non-state actors, especially technology companies, wielding significant power.

What is Ian's perspective on the readiness of global leaders to handle AI's impact?

Ian suggests that global leaders are not yet fully prepared but are quickly getting up to speed. He notes a significant increase in discussions about AI's implications among global leaders.

What does Ian propose as a necessary step for AI regulation?

Ian proposes understanding AI's nature and impact as the first step. He suggests the need for a United Nations-driven process similar to the intergovernmental panel on climate change to establish a ground truth about AI.

Why does Ian emphasize the importance of a global consensus on AI?

A global consensus is crucial because AI is open source and decentralized, meaning every country will have access to advanced AI models, which can be used for both beneficial and harmful purposes.

What does Ian suggest as a model for AI governance?

Ian suggests a technocratic approach similar to financial stability boards, such as a geotechnology stability board, where governments and tech companies work together to ensure the stable functioning of the AI market globally.

How does Ian view the role of technology companies in AI governance?

Ian sees technology companies as key players in AI governance due to their control over algorithms driving AI. He emphasizes the need for cooperation between these companies and governments.

What is Ian's stance on the idea of AI being a competitive field among nations?

Ian argues against viewing AI as a competitive field, as it is too systemic and accessible to be controlled by a few. He stresses the need for a cooperative approach to AI governance.

What recent calls does Ian mention that support his views on AI governance?

Ian references recent calls from the head of the European Union and the Secretary-General of the United Nations for an organization similar to an intergovernmental panel on AI.

What does Ian believe is the current state of global leaders' understanding of AI?

Ian believes that global leaders are now recognizing AI's significance and are actively seeking to understand its implications for politics, the economy, and national security.