What will future jobs look like? | Andrew McAfee

Summary

In this talk, the speaker discusses the rapid advancements in technology and their impact on employment. He predicts a future where automation will replace many jobs, but sees this as an opportunity for a more abundant and creative society. The speaker highlights the economic and societal challenges, such as income inequality and the need for re-skilling, and suggests potential solutions like a guaranteed minimum income. He concludes with optimism, emphasizing the importance of education and awareness in navigating the new machine age.

Takeaways

• 🚗 **Self-driving Cars**: The rapid advancement of autonomous vehicles will reduce the need for human drivers.
• 🤖 **AI Integration**: Combining AI like Siri with advanced systems like Watson will automate many customer service and troubleshooting jobs.
• 🏭 **Robotic Labor**: Robots are becoming more integrated into industries like warehousing, reducing the need for human labor.
• 📉 **Historical Perspective**: Despite past fears of technological unemployment, developed economies have maintained near full employment.
• 🌟 **New Machine Age**: The current era is marked by machines gaining abilities like understanding and speaking, which is a significant shift from past technological advancements.
• 📈 **Economic Abundance**: Technological progress leads to increased output and better quality at lower prices, which is beneficial for society.
• 🎭 **Creative Opportunities**: With less need for manual labor, people can focus on creativity, discovery, and innovation.
• 💰 **Economic Inequality**: There's a growing gap between returns to capital and labor, which poses a threat to a stable and prosperous middle class.
• 🏛️ **Social Challenges**: The rise of technology may exacerbate social issues, particularly affecting those without college education or in low-skilled jobs.
• 💼 **Work's Benefits**: Work provides structure, purpose, and social engagement, which are essential for individual well-being and societal health.
• 🌱 **Educational Improvement**: There's a need for educational systems that inspire and prepare individuals for a technology-driven world.

Q & A

What did George Eliot and Yogi Berra have in common regarding predictions?

Both George Eliot and Yogi Berra cautioned against the act of making predictions, with Eliot stating that prophesy is the most gratuitous mistake and Berra humorously noting the difficulty of making predictions, especially about the future.

What specific forecast does the speaker make about the future of work?

The speaker forecasts that in the quickly evolving world, we will see more technology that resembles science fiction and fewer jobs as we know them today, with self-driving cars, automated customer service, and robots handling tasks currently done by humans.

Why does the speaker believe this period of technological change is different from past predictions of technological unemployment?

The speaker believes this period is different because machines have recently started demonstrating skills they have never had before, such as understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing, answering, writing, and they continue to acquire new skills.

What is the term the speaker uses to describe the era of increased technology and decreased jobs?

The speaker refers to this era as 'the new machine age'.

How does the speaker view the new machine age in terms of economic impact?

The speaker views the new machine age as a positive development for two main reasons: it allows for technological progress that increases output while reducing prices, and it frees humans from drudgery and toil by taking over jobs.

What is the economic challenge that arises from the increased use of machines, as illustrated by the anecdote between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther?

The economic challenge illustrated by the anecdote is that in an economy dominated by machines, there will be less demand for human labor, which could lead to a decrease in consumer purchasing power and threaten the stability and prosperity of the middle class.

What societal challenges does the speaker foresee in the new machine age?

The speaker foresees societal challenges related to inequality and polarization, which could lead to a society where a segment of the population, represented by 'Bill,' becomes disengaged from traditional economic and social structures, leading to social issues.

What is the role of education in addressing the societal challenges of the new machine age, according to the speaker?

Education plays a critical role in engaging individuals like 'Bill' and ensuring they remain part of society. The speaker suggests that a more engaging educational system could prevent the creation of more 'Bills' and help people adapt to the changing economy.

What solutions does the speaker propose for the economic challenges of the new machine age?

The speaker proposes solutions such as encouraging entrepreneurship, investing in infrastructure, and ensuring educational systems produce individuals with the right skills. For the longer term, he suggests considering radical interventions like a guaranteed minimum income.

How does the speaker suggest increasing awareness about the challenges and opportunities of the new machine age?

The speaker suggests increasing awareness by exposing influential figures, like economists and policymakers, to the realities of the new machine age through experiences such as competing against AI or taking autonomous car rides.

What is the speaker's ultimate message of optimism regarding the future?

The speaker's message of optimism is that as the facts about the new machine age become clear, he has confidence that humanity will use this knowledge to navigate the challenges and create an abundant economy.