CIA SPY: "Trump & Biden Are Both Bad For America" - Leave The USA Before 2030? | Andrew Bustamante

Summary

The transcript discusses the potential reactions to a Trump election, with varying opinions on whether his presidency poses an existential threat to humanity. The conversation highlights the importance of understanding what constitutes such a threat and the potential consequences of either Trump or Biden's election on America's future. It also touches on the need for planning in the face of uncertainty and the desire for a strong, centrist female leader like Nikki Haley to lead the country through challenging times.

Takeaways

• 🤔 The speaker expresses concern over the potential reaction to a Trump election, questioning whether it would be seen as an existential threat to humanity.
• 🧠 The discussion involves the differing opinions on what constitutes an existential threat, with the speaker not viewing Trump's election as one.
• 🌍 The speaker acknowledges the resilience of America, suggesting that while Trump's presidency might be damaging, it wouldn't lead to the end of the country.
• 💭 The concept of existential threats is clarified as something that could lead to the complete destruction of a target, such as a state or a people.
• 🚀 An example of an existential threat is given as Iran's stated desire to wipe Israel off the map, which is seen as a genuine threat to the existence of the Jewish state.
• 🛑 The speaker argues against the misuse of the term 'existential threat' in political discourse, suggesting it has been overused and diluted.
• 📈 The speaker discusses the 'Cone of Uncertainty' concept from intelligence operations, highlighting the unpredictability of outcomes beyond a certain point.
• 📌 A recommendation is made for people to have a plan for different election outcomes, emphasizing preparedness over panic.
• 🌟 The speaker expresses a preference for a centrist female leader like Nikki Haley, believing she could represent a positive change for the country.
• 🤝 The conversation touches on the importance of being able to unite and lead effectively, criticizing candidates who engage in petty disputes or personal attacks.
• 📊 The discussion concludes with a call to action for citizens to make an impact during the election cycle, stressing the importance of participation in shaping the country's future.

Q & A

What is the main concern expressed about the potential election of Donald Trump?

The main concern is that some people view Donald Trump as an existential threat to humanity, which could lead to significant negative consequences or even the end of the world if he were to be elected again.

How does the speaker feel about Sam Harris's view on Trump as an existential threat?

The speaker respects Sam Harris as a smart and thoughtful person but disagrees with his assessment of Trump as an existential threat, believing that the term is being misused and overblown in this context.

What is the speaker's perspective on the term 'existential threat'?

The speaker believes that the term 'existential threat' has been overused and diluted, and should be reserved for situations that pose an imminent and total destruction of existence, such as the threat posed by Nazi Germany to the Jewish people or Iran's stated goal to wipe out Israel.

What is the speaker's view on the resilience of the United States?

The speaker believes that the United States is 'freakishly resilient' and that even if Trump were to be elected again, it would not lead to the end of America, though it could cause significant damage and make life more difficult.

What is the speaker's opinion on the potential for a civil war in the United States?

The speaker expresses concern that the election of Trump could push the country at least one step closer to a civil war, which is a source of anxiety for them.

How does the speaker plan to handle the outcome of the election?

The speaker has a plan to leave the United States if either Trump or Biden wins and the country takes a turn for the worse, prioritizing their family and business over trying to fix the nation at this point in time.

Which candidate does the speaker believe could be a good fit for the presidency?

The speaker thinks that Nikki Haley, a female, level-headed centrist, could be a good fit for the presidency, as she could represent the diversity and strength of the United States.

What are the speaker's thoughts on Joe Biden's candidacy?

The speaker does not express a strong opinion on Biden's candidacy but acknowledges that he is one of the two main options, along with Trump, and that either could lead to a change in the country's course.

What does the speaker think about the importance of being above petty politics?

The speaker believes that to be president, one must be above petty politics and either ignore trivial matters completely or handle them in a way that makes light of the situation, as both Obama and Trump have done successfully.

How does the speaker view the behavior of Vivek Ramaswami?

The speaker initially had a positive impression of Ramaswami but has been disappointed by his inconsistency and un-presidential behavior, such as picking unnecessary fights and personal attacks.

What is the speaker's overall message regarding the election and its impact?

The speaker's message is that people should be prepared for any outcome of the election, have a plan for what to do next, and not remain silent or idle as the country's course could change significantly, requiring citizens to take action to ensure the best possible future.

Outlines

00:00

🤔 Analyzing Existential Threats and Political Reactions

This paragraph discusses the potential reaction to a hypothetical scenario of Trump's election from an analytical perspective. The speaker expresses concern over the polarization of opinions, particularly regarding Sam Harris's view of Trump as an existential threat to humanity. The speaker disagrees with this assessment, arguing that while Trump's election may not be desirable, it does not constitute an existential threat. The conversation touches on the importance of defining what an existential threat is and the speaker's belief that America's resilience would prevent a collapse under any presidency. The speaker also mentions the potential for increased civil unrest and the比喻 of World War III being fought through proxy wars.

05:02

🗣️ The Overuse of 'Existential Threat' in Political Discourse

The speaker critiques the overuse of the term 'existential threat' in political discourse, arguing that it has been catastrophized and misused to evoke strong emotional reactions. The speaker defines a true existential threat as an imminent danger that could lead to the complete destruction of a target. Using examples such as Iran's threat to Israel and Nazi Germany's attempt to annihilate Jews, the speaker emphasizes that Trump's presidency, despite its potential for causing significant damage, does not rise to the level of an existential threat. The speaker also introduces the concept of 'The Cone of Uncertainty' from intelligence operations, suggesting that people should have a plan regardless of the election outcome, but not to the extent of believing in an existential threat without basis.

10:03

🌟 The Need for a Diverse and Centrist Leadership

In this paragraph, the speaker advocates for a more diverse and centrist leadership, specifically highlighting Nikki Haley as a potential strong female leader with a centrist narrative. The speaker expresses a desire for the country to move past the current political divide and to showcase its strength through diversity. The speaker also discusses the challenges faced by other candidates, such as Vic Ramaswami, in maintaining a consistent positive image and the importance of acting presidential. The conversation concludes with a call to action for people to impact their state during the election cycle and not to remain silent as the country's course is determined.

Keywords

💡existential threat

An existential threat refers to a danger or risk that could lead to the complete destruction or extinction of something, such as humanity or a nation. In the context of the video, there is a debate about whether Donald Trump's presidency poses an existential threat to the United States, with the speaker arguing that it does not meet the criteria for such a threat as it does not lead to the complete destruction of the nation or its institutions.

💡Sam Harris

Sam Harris is a philosopher, neuroscientist, and author known for his work on ethics, free will, and the intersection of science and spirituality. In the video, the speaker references Harris's view that Trump is an existential threat, which the speaker disagrees with, believing that Harris is wrong in this assessment.

💡hyperbolic

Hyperbolic refers to the use of exaggerated statements or claims that are not meant to be taken literally. In the video, the speaker suggests that the term 'existential threat' has been used hyperbolically to describe Trump's presidency, implying that the term is overused and has lost its original, severe connotation.

💡resilience

Resilience is the ability of a person, group, or system to recover from difficulties, adapt to change, or withstand stress. In the video, the speaker expresses a belief in America's resilience, suggesting that the country can withstand political changes and challenges without collapsing or facing existential risks.

💡catastrophizing

Catastrophizing is a cognitive distortion where an individual consistently expects disaster to strike, even when there is little or no evidence to suggest that a negative outcome will occur. In the video, the speaker accuses some people of catastrophizing by claiming that Trump's election would lead to the end of the world, a belief the speaker disagrees with.

💡Congress

Congress is the bicameral legislative branch of the United States federal government, consisting of the Senate and the House of Representatives. In the video, the speaker mentions Congress as one of the institutions that ensure the continuation of the United States, emphasizing its role in maintaining the country's existence and stability.

💡Cone of uncertainty

The Cone of Uncertainty is a concept used in meteorology to describe the predictability of a hurricane's path, but in the video, it is used metaphorically to discuss the unpredictability of political outcomes. The speaker uses this term to illustrate that while some things can be predicted with a degree of confidence, there is a vast area of uncertainty beyond which outcomes are unpredictable.

💡Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley is an American politician and diplomat who served as the United States Ambassador to the United Nations from 2017 to 2018 and as the Governor of South Carolina from 2011 to 2017. In the video, the speaker expresses a preference for Haley as a potential president due to her centrist narrative and believes that her election could demonstrate the power of diversity in the United States.

💡civil war

A civil war is a violent conflict between citizens of the same country, often fought to achieve political or social change. In the video, the speaker expresses concern that the election of Trump could lead to a situation that might resemble a civil war, indicating a deep division within the country that could escalate into serious conflict.

💡World War III

World War III is a hypothetical third global war that is often discussed in the context of large-scale conflict between major world powers. In the video, the speaker uses the term to describe a potential future conflict that could be fought in a more covert or indirect manner, rather than a traditional 'hot war' like World War II.

💡diversity

Diversity refers to the variety of differences among people, such as culture, gender, race, or background, that can be found within a group or society. In the video, the speaker sees diversity as a source of strength for the United States and believes that a strong female leader like Nikki Haley could exemplify this by representing the nation's diversity.

Highlights

The speaker expresses concern over the potential reaction to a Trump election, referencing the divided opinions on the internet.

The speaker mentions the Sam Harris incident, where the internet turned against a usually respected figure, indicating a potential overreaction to certain political figures.

The concept of an 'existential threat' is discussed, with the speaker questioning the appropriateness of applying this term to Donald Trump.

The speaker acknowledges the resilience of America, suggesting that even a Trump presidency would not lead to the end of the world.

The possibility of a civil war is brought up, indicating a deep concern over the potential consequences of a Trump re-election.

The speaker disagrees with the notion that Trump poses an existential threat, arguing for a more nuanced understanding of the term.

A definition of existential threat is provided, emphasizing its severity and the irreversible nature of such a threat.

The speaker argues that Trump does not meet the criteria for an existential threat, as the U.S. institutions are robust enough to withstand any presidency.

The term 'catastrophizing' is introduced, criticizing the tendency to exaggerate threats for emotional impact.

The speaker advises people to have a plan in place regardless of the election outcome, emphasizing preparedness over panic.

The speaker's personal plan to leave the U.S. if the country takes a turn for the worse is shared.

The speaker expresses a preference for a female, centrist leader like Nikki Haley, highlighting the importance of diversity in leadership.

The speaker critiques the behavior of certain candidates, such as Vivek Ramaswami, for not demonstrating the necessary presidential demeanor.

The importance of being above petty politics is emphasized, with the speaker advocating for a focus on the bigger picture.

The potential for a Trump or Biden presidency to change the course of the U.S. is discussed, with the speaker expressing a desire for positive change.

The speaker calls for action from the public, urging people to make an impact during the election cycle.

Transcripts

so as you look at this with your analyst

eyes um what do you think will be the

reaction to let say a trump getting

elected because my concern is uh when

watching the Sam Harris Thing Happened

on the internet I don't know how closely

you paid attention to that but basically

the entire internet turned on what I

think is one of the smartest most

thoughtful people I think he's wrong but

to your point about you want to

triangulate anyway you're not just going

to listen to one person Sam is right

about so many things um but he I I

believe I understand Sam maybe better

than a lot of people in that the thing

that Sam believes is that Donald Trump

is an existential threat and when

someone becomes an existential threat

meaning it could wipe out Humanity I

want to be very clear about what an

existential threat is uh that it's a

whole new set of rules baby and you do

whatever you have to do and

that if Sam who is incredibly smart and

extremely thoughtful and I think a

hyperoral person um but I also think

he's wrong about this so my thing is

okay I think the real problem we have is

we don't agree on what constitutes an

existential threat I actually don't know

that we disagree about what to do in the

face of a true existential threat but

like when I look at Trump getting

elected I'm like please Jesus no but at

the same time I don't see it as an

existential threat so and I look at like

we we had four years with them it what

the world didn't end everybody like but

at the same time other people look at it

and like bro we we dodged a nuclear

weapon like what are you talking like it

could be the end of humanity if he gets

elected again that freaks me out the

fact that people think hey him getting

elected could end the world now if this

were like Fringe

crazies I'd be like whatever yeah this

is coming from some of the smartest

people I know that are they're very good

at thinking through problems so of

course Part of Me Goes is he an

existential threat like I don't think

I'm the Arbiter right so I'm captain

distrust yourself but as so the only

thing I'm saying is when I analyze the

situation there are enough people that

believe that he is an actual existential

threat that if he gets elected I think

you have a problem I don't think uh look

I'm a big believer that America's

freakishly resilient I don't think it

collapses but do I think that at a

minimum we take another step towards the

Civil War yes I really do that that one

really freaks me out like I I can buy

into the proxy wars that World War III

is going to be fought very

surreptitiously there won't be as much

hot to the war okay don't love it still

very high stakes still makes me very

tense but that's a lot better than say a

World War II um but dude in the summer

of 2020 I sat on my balcony and watched

La

burn and that wasn't even around

existential threats right so yeah I

don't know and I don't know what's worse

and again I'll ask you with your your

CIA analyst hat on what's worse Trump

getting elected or Trump not getting

elected so I'll start by saying that I

disagree with all the smart people that

you're referencing right now and I would

gladly who think he's an existential

threat yes I would gladly sit in front

of anybody who believes that Trump is an

existential threat and have a healthy

debate on any topic they want to talk

about because I have actually seen

existential threats and Trump is not

that can you paint an existential threat

picture an existential threat

threat is is imminent it means that it

is the last step before the holistic

destruction the existence destroying

from

existence the the Target that it is

threatening right

so let's consider a battleship right a

Hypersonic cruise missile will destroy a

battleship right it is not an

existential threat to the battleship

even though it will destroy the

battleship it is not an existential

threat to the battleship because if even

one soldier

survives the memory of that battleship

in current memory still exists not to

mention all of the documentation about

the battleship existing and then they

rebuild a new one they give it the same

moniker and it's right back in service

again right it is a perilous threat it

is not an existential threat truly

existential threats are things that will

wipe you off the face of the Earth right

Iran wants to wipe Israel off the face

of the earth that is an existential

threat and when they say that when they

announced that they were talking about

Israel the state and Jews they want to

destroy them Nazi Germany posed an

existential threat to the Jewish faith

literally a systematic commitment to

destroying an entire generation like the

entire existence of it forever taking it

off the world

the world stage forever that is an

existential threat what happens is that

we have become spoiled in our

terminology catastrophizing has become

so common that now to get people

emotional to get people to move on their

on their beliefs you have to ramp

everything up to get past the volume and

the velocity of data you have to say the

next most extreme thing when you say the

most extreme thing long enough if you

call yourself stupid enough times guess

what you start to

believe you start to believe you're

stupid so when you tell people enough

times it's an existential threat it's an

existential threat it's an existential

threat you start to actually believe wow

maybe it really is an existential threat

without stopping to

think in one presidency no president

Trump or anybody no president can

disband two of the three branches the

only thing the president can really do

is write an executive order about the

Executive Branch if our Congress exists

We Exist if our judicial branch exists

we exist right and the other two

branches are there to keep the executive

branch in power so one four-year

presidency one 8-year presidency two

8-year presidencies with President Trump

is not with a future president Trump is

not going to be the end of America could

it do significant damage absolutely but

it's not an existential threat it just

isn't it doesn't threaten to end the

United States it threatens to make life

difficult but lots of things threaten to

make life difficult we can't guarantee

that Trump comes into office and somehow

everything changes for the better who

knows we don't we don't actually know

there's there's a term that we use in in

uh intelligence operations called The

Cone of uncertainty and if you imagine

like a funnel or a cone or you know a

pennant whatever it's a it's a certain

shape the timeline of known reality goes

right up to the beginning of the cone

and then where you see the actual cone

that becomes an area of predictable

confidence that you can guess Within

but where that cone ends everything past

the cone is totally unpredictable you

have no confidence about what will

happen one way or the other so unless

there is an existential threat the

threatening the existence and future

existence of something within that cone

then you can't really take it as a as a

level of confidence one way or the other

so my recommendation to those people

catastrophizing and everybody who's

feeling that pressure that anxiety have

a plan for When Donald Trump is

announced as the winner of the

presidency have a plan for it hope and

vote against it all you want but don't

let it happen without a plan for what to

do next we have a plan for what to do

next our plan takes us out of the United

States if Donald Trump becomes the

president and our country takes a turn

for the worst we're leaving the United

States we already have the plan if if

Joseph Biden wins the presidency and the

United States takes a turn for the worse

we're leaving the United States that's

our plan doesn't mean that we're not

proud to be Americans it just means that

where we are in our lives with our

children with our business with what

we're trying to do in our personal

mission it is not to fix the United

States right now we'll let other people

who are passionate about that fix the

United States right now we're going to

go grow our family and take care of our

family grow our business grow our impact

pay our taxes and make sure the United

States has the resources it needs to get

through its

adolescence but other people are very

dedicated to being part of the solution

right now and I applaud those people and

I want to give them the resources they

need to be that level of impact it's

interesting when you said earlier that

um you were you really believed in the

supremacy of the US I knew that you plan

to leave I thought it was a longer

timeline than that um that's very

interesting so that tells me that you

think that uh well let me not put words

in your mouth are you saying that if one

of those two gets elected that there is

a distressingly high probability of a

bad turn yes I would agree with that

statement completely okay wa regardless

of which two we're picking between two

bad

options and that's just where we are

right now unfortunately I think there

are good options on the table who one of

the options that I would actually

personally love to see take the

presidency is Nikki Haley I don't even

know who that is I hear her and that's

why she's not going to win so I hear her

name all the time I I'm going to have to

watch something I don't know what she

looks like never heard her voice I think

of all the things that the country could

really benefit from right now it's a

female level-headed Centrist and even

though she runs on the Republican ticket

she is very much a her her narrative is

a very Centrist narrative and I really

like the idea of our country kind of

coming out of this 8-year

Disaster by showing that one of the

things that makes us so powerful is our

diversity and I think we are at a time

now where a strong female leader would

be welcomed here unfortunately I think

that that Hillary Clinton in many of the

years that she was running wasn't the

right fit at the right time I think

Nikki Haley might be different than that

but that doesn't mean she's got any

traction that doesn't mean it's going to

happen but it is one of those 10%

outcomes where all of a sudden I see

like sunlight instead of more rain and

and snow did she run last cycle no it's

the first time she's run and

unfortunately she's showing a lot of the

a lot of the uh um

neopit making classic mistakes yeah

arguing over petty stuff and debates and

blah blah blah blah blah and not really

showing that she's above all that and to

be president you got to be above all

that frivolity either you've got to do

the Obama approach and just not address

it or you've got to do the Trump

approach and address it jovially and

make light of it Joi I love that yeah I

got the best words I've got the best

words I'm the best no one's ever had

words this good I cannot do an

impression to save my life but uh yeah

the way he talks is hilarious yeah yeah

uh okay what do you think of vivec

ramaswami I wanted to like Vic a lot but

you don't I wanted to like him a lot I

still think that he's got he's he's made

so many positive Impressions on me but

at the same time he just he's not been

consistent in terms of the positive

Impressions right picking fights with

Nikki Haley over silly things like Tik

Tock and personal attacks on her family

come on man You' got to act presidential

I loved when he came out of the gates

he's prepared he's a minority he's young

so many things there that that you could

that anybody could rally behind in love

but then there's these behavioral

challenges where you're like dude the

last thing I want to do is have you be

negotiating with the prince of Saudi

Arabia and you're gonna jab him on one

of his wives like no that's not a good

idea for us no thank you right again

neoy beginner kind of error that he's

going to try to fix up but that's just

that's where we are right now I and

again going back to the original

question there's a there is a very solid

chance that a trump or a Biden

presidency is going to change its course

even 15 or 30 degrees change its course

focus on American needs focus on

American economy maybe even apologize

for bad calls in the past who knows good

luck with that one but they can they can

change the course

and make significant benefits but if

they stay their

course then it's just more pain for all

of us and we can't we we can't stand by

idly and let that happen this this the

pyramid the civilization pyramid is not

worth just sitting by and being silent

we have a chance to impact our state we

should yeah no doubt I think a lot of

people are going to try to have impact

during this election cycle if you like

that clip check out the full powerful

episode here and I'll see you

there