NFL Week 2 Betting Lines Rundown | The Simple Handicap Podcast - Tuesday September 10th, 2024

Right Angle Sports
10 Sept 202427:21

Summary

TLDRThe host delivers a comprehensive NFL Week 2 market rundown, analyzing point spreads, player injuries, and team performances. Key matchups include Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, with injury concerns for Buffalo's Teron Johnson impacting the game. The host also discusses the Chargers' impressive coaching and the Saints' offense, suggesting overreactions to Week 1 performances. Other notable games feature the Rams' offensive line struggles and the potential absence of key players like Jamar Chase for the Bengals. Special teams' impact on scoring, with a record number of long field goals, is highlighted, setting the stage for intriguing Week 2 bets.

Takeaways

  • 🏈 The podcast covers the NFL Week 2 market rundown, discussing every point spread, total, and game on the board.
  • πŸ“ˆ The Miami Dolphins are favored against the Buffalo Bills, with the spread moving from -3 to -2.5 and the total points adjusting from 50.5 to 49.
  • πŸ€• Key injuries to watch include Buffalo's Taron Johnson and Miami's Tua Tagovailoa, which could impact the game's dynamics.
  • πŸ“‰ The Baltimore Ravens are favored against the Las Vegas Raiders, with the total points dropping from 43.5 to 41 due to the Raiders' lackluster offensive performance.
  • 🚨 The Carolina Panthers are heavily scrutinized after a poor showing against the Jets, leading to a significant line movement in favor of the LA Chargers.
  • 🎯 The Dallas Cowboys are favored against the New Orleans Saints, with concerns about the Saints' offensive line and the Cowboys' pass rush.
  • πŸš€ The Detroit Lions are favored against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the total points expected to rise due to potential injuries in the Buccaneers' secondary.
  • πŸ€” The Green Bay Packers' line has shifted dramatically due to doubts about Jordan Love's ability to replace Aaron Rodgers, with a significant point spread adjustment.
  • πŸ” The Jacksonville Jaguars are favored against the Cleveland Browns, with the Browns' situation regarding Deshaun Watson adding complexity to the matchup.
  • ⚽️ The podcast notes an unusual trend in Week 1 where kickers had a historically good start, impacting the total scores despite poor quarterback performances.

Q & A

  • What is the main focus of the discussion in the provided transcript?

    -The main focus of the discussion is a detailed analysis of the betting lines and game insights for NFL Week 2, including point spreads, totals, and injury reports affecting the games.

  • Which team is favored in the Thursday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins?

    -The Miami Dolphins are favored in the Thursday Night Football game against the Buffalo Bills.

  • What is the significance of the injury to Teron Johnson of the Buffalo Bills?

    -Teron Johnson's injury is significant as he is a key player in the defensive backfield, and his absence could greatly impact the Bills' ability to defend against the Miami Dolphins' offense.

  • What was the initial point spread for the game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Baltimore Ravens?

    -The initial point spread for the game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Baltimore Ravens was 3.5 points in favor of the Ravens.

  • What is the uncertainty surrounding Lamar Jackson's participation in the Baltimore Ravens' game?

    -There is uncertainty surrounding Lamar Jackson's participation due to his absence from practice and the vague responses from the coaching staff regarding his injury status.

  • How did the Carolina Panthers' performance in Week 1 affect the betting lines for their Week 2 game?

    -The Carolina Panthers' poor performance in Week 1 led to a significant increase in the point spread for their Week 2 game, with the LA Chargers becoming a 6.5-point favorite.

  • What is the concern regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense in their game against the Detroit Lions?

    -The concern is that the Buccaneers' defense might be down four defensive backs, which could impact their performance against the Detroit Lions' offense.

  • Why is there a significant change in the betting line for the Green Bay Packers after their Week 1 game?

    -There is a significant change in the betting line for the Green Bay Packers due to the uncertainty over the starting quarterback, with Jordan Love replacing Aaron Rodgers, leading to a drop in the team's perceived strength.

  • What is the potential impact of the injury to the offensive line of the LA Rams in their Week 2 game?

    -The injury to the offensive line of the LA Rams could significantly impact their offensive performance, as it may limit their ability to protect the quarterback and establish a running game.

  • How did the performance of the New England Patriots' offense in Week 1 affect the betting lines for their Week 2 game against the Seattle Seahawks?

    -The New England Patriots' offense performed well in Week 1, leading to the Seattle Seahawks being installed as a 3-point favorite in their Week 2 game, reflecting the improved perception of the Patriots' offensive capabilities.

Outlines

00:00

🏈 NFL Week 2 Market Rundown

The host kicks off the show discussing the NFL Week 2 matchups, emphasizing the importance of analyzing point spreads and totals for each game. They highlight the Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins game, noting the fluctuating odds and the impact of injuries on the teams. The host also appreciates the viewers on YouTube and listeners on Apple and Spotify, encouraging engagement through likes and subscriptions. A detailed look at the Thursday Night Football matchup is provided, along with insights into player injuries and their potential influence on the game's outcome.

05:00

πŸ“Š In-Depth Analysis of NFL Betting Lines

This segment delves deeper into the betting lines for various NFL games, including the Las Vegas Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens and the LA Chargers vs. Carolina Panthers. The host discusses the movement in the betting lines, the potential impact of key player injuries, and the strategic approach of teams based on their previous performances. They also speculate on the likelihood of certain players participating in upcoming games and how this might affect the odds and public perception.

10:01

🚨 Key Injuries and Their Impact on NFL Games

The focus of this part is on the significant injuries that could sway the outcomes of several NFL games. The host discusses how teams are coping with the loss of key players and the strategies they might employ to compensate. Specific attention is given to the impact of injuries on the offensive and defensive lines, as well as the potential for backup quarterbacks to step in and change the dynamics of the game.

15:03

🌐 Cross-Country Challenges and Coaching Dynamics

The host addresses the challenges faced by teams traveling long distances for games and how this might affect their performance. They also comment on the changing dynamics within team locker rooms, particularly noting the shift in atmosphere under new coaching staff. The summary also touches on the potential for certain teams to surprise with their performance, based on the coaching strategies and player morale.

20:06

🏟️ Home and Away Game Dynamics

This section discusses the advantages and challenges teams face when playing at home versus being on the road. The host evaluates how certain teams' performances in their home opener might set the tone for the rest of the season. They also consider how the support or lack thereof from home crowds can influence the game's outcome, with specific reference to teams that have shown significant changes in their home game strategies.

25:09

πŸ€• Injury Updates and Their Influence on Game Odds

The host provides updates on player injuries and their influence on game odds. They discuss how the absence of key players can lead to shifts in betting lines and how the market reacts to such news. The summary also includes speculation on how teams might adjust their strategies to accommodate for missing players and the potential impact on the game's total points.

Mindmap

Keywords

πŸ’‘Handicap

In the context of the video, 'handicap' refers to the point spread in betting, which is used to create a more competitive betting scenario by giving a disadvantage to the favorite and an advantage to the underdog. It's a fundamental concept in sports betting, and the video discusses how the handicap changes from week to week in NFL games, as seen with the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins matchup.

πŸ’‘Point Spread

The 'point spread' is a key term in sports betting that represents the predicted margin of victory for a favored team. It's used to level the playing field for betting and is a central focus in the video, with the host discussing various point spreads for different NFL games and how they adjust based on team performance and injuries.

πŸ’‘Total

In the video, 'total' refers to the over/under betting line for the combined score of both teams in a game. It's a critical aspect of sports betting, and the script mentions how the total changes, such as in the Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins game, where the total score line fluctuates from 50 and a half to 49.

πŸ’‘Injury Report

The 'injury report' is a list of players who may be unable to play due to injury, which can significantly impact a team's performance and betting odds. The video discusses the injury reports for various teams, like the Buffalo Bills' Taron Johnson and the Miami Dolphins' Ahan, and how these injuries can affect the betting lines.

πŸ’‘Betting Market

The 'betting market' encompasses all the activities related to placing bets on sports events. The video analyzes the betting market's reactions to various factors like team performances and injuries, and how these reactions influence the betting lines for NFL week two.

πŸ’‘Money Line

The 'money line' is the odds for betting on the outright winner of a game, without a point spread. The video touches on money line movements, such as the Miami Dolphins' money line, which reflects the betting market's confidence in a team's ability to win.

πŸ’‘Underdog

An 'underdog' is a team that is expected to lose a game according to the oddsmakers. The video discusses underdogs in the context of betting, such as the Buffalo Bills being underdogs in their game against the Miami Dolphins, and how betting patterns can shift the point spread.

πŸ’‘Favored

A 'favored' team is one that the oddsmakers predict to win a game. The video script mentions several teams that are favored in their respective games, such as the Baltimore Ravens, and how the betting market's perception of these teams can change from week to week.

πŸ’‘Opening Line

The 'opening line' is the initial point spread or total set by oddsmakers at the start of the betting week. The video discusses how opening lines for various games, like the Las Vegas vs. Baltimore game, can change significantly as the week progresses based on betting activity and other factors.

πŸ’‘Look-Ahead Line

A 'look-ahead line' is a betting line posted for future games before the current week's games have been played. The video refers to look-ahead lines for games like the San Francisco vs. Minnesota matchup, indicating how early odds can set expectations for upcoming games.

Highlights

Market rundown for NFL Week 2, discussing every point spread and total game.

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins game analysis, including point spread and total.

Injury updates for Teron Johnson and potential impact on the Bills' defense.

Discussion on Miami Dolphins' injury report and its effect on the game's total and point spread.

Thursday Night Football analysis and expectations for the Bills and Dolphins.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens game breakdown, including the impact of Lamar Jackson's injury.

LA Chargers vs. Carolina Panthers line movement and team performance analysis.

Carolina Panthers' defensive issues and how the Chargers might exploit them.

New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys game expectations and over/under total discussion.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions game analysis, focusing on injuries to the Buccaneers' defense.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers quarterback adjustments and their impact on the line.

Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars game insights, including potential changes in the Browns' strategy.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings game analysis and potential absence of key players.

Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots game expectations and travel considerations for the Seahawks.

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders game analysis and the Giants' offensive potential.

LA Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals game discussion, including the Rams' offensive line injuries.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos game insights, focusing on the Broncos' offensive struggles.

Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans game preview, with injury updates on key players.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles game analysis, including concerns over Kirk Cousins' play style.

Summary of week one's NFL games, noting the prevalence of field goals and the impact on scoring.

Transcripts

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good morning everybody the simple

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handicap for Tuesday September 10th

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thank you for making me a part of your

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morning we'll get straight to the market

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rundown for Tuesday because there's a

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whole lot to talk about as we put week

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one in the rearview mirror and start

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looking forward to NFL Week number two

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so we're going to go through every point

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spread total game on the board we'll

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talk about everything that you need to

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know to get you on your way this Tuesday

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Morning want to give a shout out to

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everybody watching on YouTube lots of

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folks listening on Apple and Spotify

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each and every morning but the YouTube

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numbers for the first time I've ever

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done the podcast each morning on video

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have been substantial for week one so

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thank you very much if you're watching

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if it's your first time there's a

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subscribe button down below appreciate

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if you hit like as well and if you're

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lisening through your headphones on

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Apple or Spotify on your way to work

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maybe you're walking the dog getting

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ready for your Tuesday morning I

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appreciate you very much as well tuning

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in let's get to it with the market

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rundown for NFL Week number two starts

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off Thursday Night Football Buffalo

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Bills on the road at the Miami Dolphins

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this was Miami 2 at open got up to 2 and

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1/2 there was some shading towards three

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soon as it got there we saw Bill's money

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come back and we're down to Miami minus

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2 at Chris minus one and a half almost

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everywhere across the board the total

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was up as high as 50 and a half it is

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now coming down we are to a flat 49 this

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morning with 48 and a half showing at

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Pinnacle FanDuel DK and a few other

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places as well but Chris and cira

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holding steady at 49 couple injuries to

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watch in this one the biggest one for

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the Buffalo Bills is going to be teron

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Johnson and the defens of backfield he

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is going to to missed the game with the

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forearm injury their main nickel Corner

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arguably the best defensive back that

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they have on the roster his absence is

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certainly going to matter a ton against

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this Miami Dolphins offense with Tyreek

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Hill Jaylen Wadd and a ton of speed the

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Miami injury report is going to be

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highlighted by aan as well as mostart

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both guys were dnps on Monday worth

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monitoring their status today obviously

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in the injury report as that's going to

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have an impact on both the total and

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potentially the point spread too uh

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varying reports to how severe the injury

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to hn is I think he's the guy that most

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people will be watching his prop

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receiving number took a lot of money

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over last week prior to the game he's

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going to have a big impact on what this

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Dolphins offense is going to look like

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but uh we are seeing this total start to

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come in because we saw the bills go very

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run heavy try to keep things between the

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tackles and the main criticism of the

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Dolphins offense this morning after a

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lot of folks published film review look

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back throughout the box score and ex it

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a little more very very Boomer bust for

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Miami they had a couple of big plays but

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not a lot of sustained offense against

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that Jacksonville defense and so the way

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that the bills played against the

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Cardinals very soft a ton of off

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coverage kept everything in front did

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not allow a lot of explosives you would

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think those two matchups could provide

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for an interesting look at this total

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but I say maybe a little bit surprised

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we haven't seen touch more Miami money

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come in and there was that reversal on

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Buffalo so if the moves on the the board

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that stand out to me from Monday uh how

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quick the bills were taken up maybe

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stands out to me perhaps more than

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others let's get to Sunday it's Las

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Vegas on the road at the Baltimore

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Ravens Ravens a n and a half Point

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favored across the board with a total of

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41 that is down from 43 and a half at

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open as under money comes in after a

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lackluster Raiders offensive performance

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against the Chargers and the Ravens well

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probably going to find themselves in a

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spot where they're playing from ahead

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now the big question with Baltimore

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Lamar Jackson not practicing John

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Harbaugh's in Peak mid-season form with

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how he's replying to reporters saying

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the injury report comes out on Wednesday

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so we're getting nothing from him Lamar

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just pops up on the injury report

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sporadically throughout the season so

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it's not new it's not a surprise but who

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knows what he deals with on a weekly

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basis at this point it's just so hard to

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figure out what in the world goes on

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when he hits the injury report it's

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incredibly difficult to gauge the

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severity too so hard to say what we're

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getting from that the market certainly

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doesn't think there's much as this

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number has pushed up to 9 1 half and is

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leaning towards 10 at a lot of places

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from the eight that initially hit the

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board at open La charges on the road at

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the Carolina Panthers the Chargers out

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to his big of a as a 6 and a half Point

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favorite this morning this opened three

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and a half if you were watching the live

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stream reaction to opening lines I was

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looking at it I'm like this is going to

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go up and it's been going up and I would

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say it's to the point now where you have

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to you have to start thinking about

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Carolina

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um boy I I I read a ton today and got a

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ton of opinions from other people I

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respect had a lot of conversations went

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back and forth it was it was a full day

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at the screen before the Jets game that

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started at 6:00 in the morning we had

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releases

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early and the the Carolina Panthers were

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just torn apart by anybody that watches

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and covers the NFL and there was just

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nothing that was positive taken away

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from that and on the other hand it was

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the Chargers who really played such a

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clean game and were so well coached that

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the opinion to me on the Chargers was

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strong coming into the season I'm

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talking about people looking at the

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Outlook of the team and it's it went

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from being yeah maybe to like adamant

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how well coached and buttoned up this

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team is and like Jo Al is getting

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praised and the Run game is getting

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praised what I will say is the Run game

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was quite Boomer bust for the Chargers

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when you look at the game as a whole it

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wasn't a lot of sustain there was a lot

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of big plays overcoming a lot of

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infrequent like no gains or very short

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gains look Carolina and that defensive

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front now losing Derek Brown for the

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season it's their best defensive lineman

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that news came through yesterday there's

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going to be nothing there and so it's

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like the Chargers can just walk all over

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Carolina in theory on this matchup

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looking on paper but like how high do

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these numbers need to go for Carolina

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before we see something from them to get

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it going the other way cuz it's been one

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way so far in the LA Chargers Saints on

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the road at the Dallas Cowboys Dallas

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open 6 and 1 Half Point favorite still 6

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and a half across the screen total up

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from 442 to 45 A2 and trending higher

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think we see this get to 46 or perhaps

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push up a little bit more this is a game

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that I talked about on the reaction

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podcast where it's like both teams

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overachieved so much that it offsets but

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I would say right now sitting here

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Tuesday morning my one take from week

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one that's overreaction related would be

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that the Saints offense looked way

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better than it actually is and I start

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to worry about that big weakness on the

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offensive line it looked great against

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Carolina with no pass rush now you face

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a very good pass rush in the Dallas

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Cowboys what is that going to look like

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with Carr being as sensitive to pressure

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as he is so if this was a scenario where

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the expectations for the Saints remained

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in check and we saw the Cowboys against

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the Browns outperform as much as they

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did would we still be sitting at six and

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a half I don't think so Tampa Bay on the

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road at the Detroit Lions Detroit now a

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seven-point favorite across the board

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total in this game is 51 didn't get to

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talk about the Lions directly I had a

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tweet in reaction to the game that came

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out thought they really got away from

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their identity in the second half which

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is using the offensive line running the

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football that is the strength of this

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team we saw them get back to it in

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overtime and look amazing against the

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Rams now in this game they face a Tampa

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Bay Bucks defense that is going to be

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potentially down four defensive backs

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from the guys that they had going on the

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field in week one including Antoine

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Winfield who's one of the better

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safeties in the NFL this is the first

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big early season cluster injury that a

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team is going to have to deal with and

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overcome the Dallas or the Detroit Lions

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weren't able to really exploit the ram

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secondary that were down guys as much as

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I thought they could Jameson Williams

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looked amazing but St Brown was really a

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non-factor I think it's going to be

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imperative that they get that passing

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game working which at home in this spot

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against this Buccaneers defense could

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absolutely come to fruition might be a

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little bit more challenging to run the

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football if the Bucks defensive line is

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healthy they were down two starters

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against Washington Washington found a

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lot of success off of QB scrambles with

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Jaden Daniels but Robinson had a big

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contribution to the as well keep an eye

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on what we're getting from the Bucks

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defensive line cuz that could really

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shift the Lions game plan and that would

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obviously have a pretty big impact on

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this total Indianapolis on the road at

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the Green Bay Packers Indie a 3us 120

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favorite across the board total in this

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game opened on the look ahe headline

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last week at 47 we are now down to 41

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shaded

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under it is going to be Willis under

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centered believe it or not for the Green

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Bay Packers

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to me the connection between Ryan tanah

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Hill and Matt laflor made a lot of sense

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dating back to the Tennessee days where

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they were working together thought that

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was going to be the route that the

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Packers went after those Sunday reports

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came out before kickoff about how the

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two were in touch I'm not sure what left

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um Willis as the starter for Green Bay

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or how that didn't work out but all

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signs point to Willis being the starter

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now let's put this number in some

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context so in predictable has Market

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reflected power ratings from 1 to 32

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that mirror what is going on in the

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betting Market they also have a

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spreadsheet where they show quarterback

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adjustments that are made for injuries

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they have the drop from Jordan love to

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Willis as a six-point drop which would

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match the highest drop or deduction that

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an NFL team has faced over the last two

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seasons the other two that matched this

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were Dak Prescott back in 2022 when he

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was hurt in week one against the

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Buccaneers and they went to Cooper Rush

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that was graded as a six-point drop and

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the other six-point drop was last season

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for the LA Chargers when Justin Herbert

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went down and Easton stick came in so we

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have this quarterback drop by the market

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ratings being viewed as a six-point

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deduction we have seen this line go from

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Green Bay minus5 to Indie minus 3 - 20

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so the market ratings and and how they

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view the quarterback drop as saying six

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the betting Market is saying eight

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anytime we've seen this get to 3 and A2

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there's been Packer money coming in I

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always tend to look at the backup QB

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getting the start getting a discount it

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was very successful for us last year

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with bets and

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releases haven't been able to get there

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yet with this game there's just so much

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concern about Willis and what he's going

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to be in this offense and how they can

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adjust so quickly I think it's going to

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be a pretty dramatic change a lot of

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uncertainty with this one and the Colts

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just they looked solid on offense and

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they didn't really get to push the Run

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game which the eagles found a lot of

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holes in the Brazil game whether that

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was field condition related or not but

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even with the Packers defensive changes

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they still seemed susceptible to the Run

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game and I'm worried with that

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Richardson Taylor mesh point in the back

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field what that could be but I I'm

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certainly intrigued with Green Bay in

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this spot just because of the discount

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it it's it's noticeably gone too far I

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mean this is Aaron Rogers in his Peak

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Prime to Scott toline drop territory

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when we're looking at this big of an

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adjustment and I just I don't think it

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could be that much the argument against

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that is that the Packers were overrated

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at that five to begin with um lots of

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ways you can look at it but that's how

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it's being graded in the market

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currently Cleveland on the road at the

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Jacksonville ja Jags the Jags are 3 and

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A2 Point favorites minus 110 total from

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44 1/2 down to 41 1/2 I will say at Red

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angle Sports we had a release on this

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game I won't say which one just yet this

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early in the week we're going to see

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where this number continues to Trend if

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you're interested in future releases we

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could potentially have more today you

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can head over to ri.com NFL but we're

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looking at the Jags again as a three and

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a half Point favorite across the board

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they were the one team that really came

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out of week one where they were being

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viewed as the team that likely got a

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worse W than they should have deserved

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based on how the game played out 177

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late in the third quarter driving with

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etn going across the goal line to score

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he fumbles they end up losing the game

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20 to 17 followed up with some poor

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decisions between the end of the third

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quarter and about the three minute Mark

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remaining in the fourth quarter is just

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Peterson getting in his own way and this

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team making mistakes the Miami Dolphins

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come back that 400 yard Mark that the

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Jags conceded on defense didn't

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necessarily look as bad as it did in the

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Box Score when going back and watching

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the games but it was a pretty

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comfortable game for Lawrence and the

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offense now it's certainly going to be a

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different scenario against this Browns

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defensive front which is going to make

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things pretty unsettled for Lawrence in

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the pocket really test this offense and

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how good they looked and there's a major

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question about what are we getting with

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this Browns team going forward is this a

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dead team is now the current suit

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against the Browns and deshun Watson or

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against directly deshun Watson I guess

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is that going to linger into how the

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Browns try to pursue this going forward

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it seems potentially now that the Browns

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have an out based on some reports where

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there's a chance that due to NFL Clauses

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they potentially have a way to get out

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of this contract with Watson does that

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now flip the Browns from supporting him

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to working against him is there a reason

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to start jamus Winston and if you're

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looking at this and Winston does start

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based on what we saw from Watson against

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the Cowboys you have to think that

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Winston is potentially an upgrade in

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this scenario what does that do to the

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number a lot going on here in this

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matchup that we'll continue to watch as

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this line moves throughout the week San

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Francisco Minnesota still not widely

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available uh this was San Francisco

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minus 7 on the look ahead late Sunday

play14:19

game or lines that were up had this a

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lot lower after the Minnesota

play14:23

performance I get a good feeling that

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we're going to see this tick up closer

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and go back towards seven just based on

play14:30

how dominant the 49ers looked uh there

play14:32

was an interesting report from Adam

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shefer where he was saying that there is

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a chance that this game will be missed

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by Christian mcaffrey too as the 49ers

play14:41

are not inclined to push him to return

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it's an artificial turf game as well in

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Minnesota more difficult on the injury

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that he is dealing with and so there's a

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chance that it is going to be another

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Mason game out of the backfield for the

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San Francisco

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49ers Seattle Seahawks going across the

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country to take on the New England

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Patriots Seattle a expensive three-point

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favorite across the board total from 41

play15:04

down to 38 I appreciate the couple

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direct messages I got confirming that

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Seattle to Miami is in fact 22 minutes

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longer than Seattle to Foxboro for the

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flight I said yesterday on the podcast

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this was the longest trip um I was off

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by 22 minutes still a very very long

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trip it is still a young coaching staff

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I'll say what stood out to me with

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Seattle that I think is pretty promising

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for the team going forward

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the post game sort of locker view or

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locker room candid view that went around

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on social and was making the rounds of

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Mike McDonald doing the speeches and the

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team around him when you put that up

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side by side with the same videos from

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the peak Carroll era especially late in

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the peak Carol era like it's so

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different and it feels so much more

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serious and so much more bought in for

play15:54

Mike McDonald I mean everybody in the

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locker room loved Pete Caroll and his

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energy was infectious but he he needed

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that energy to elevate everyone around

play16:03

him as he got into his mid to late 70s

play16:06

and the defense started to struggle and

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the offense was inconsistent Mike

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McDonald is just like all business and

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it was interesting to see that

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difference in the Seattle locker room

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because it hasn't been there for years

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under Pete Caroll it was such a

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different feeling in that locker room

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and now you see it with McDonald and

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you're like this could get pretty

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interesting and that defense was

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dominant against bones Knicks and so

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they get a pretty attainable matchup

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here against the New England Patriots

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offense but it is more than a field goal

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now being laid on the road in a bit of a

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cross country test for Seattle Jets

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Titans still off of the board this was

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Jets four on the look ahead total was 43

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a half I would fully expect this total

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to open lower than 43 and a half but

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then there's going to be a decision to

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make are the Jets an over team with a

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defense that's not nearly as good as we

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all thought it was coming into the year

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was that San Francisco making it look

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worse than it is and what do we get from

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this Titans offense that really made

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mistakes down the stretch against the

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Bears defense that is now coming through

play17:07

with inconsistent rating so I think

play17:09

there's going to be some back and forth

play17:11

on this total probably see the point

play17:14

spread open up right where it was on the

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look ahead around four I think you're

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going to see decisions being made there

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too again how much was the Jets

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offensive line and the Run game

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struggles due to the 49ers front

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certainly going to be different against

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the Titans defensive front which is a

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big step back from the San Francisco

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49ers Giants on the road at the

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Washington commanders Washington a 2 and

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a half Point favored across the board

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total in this game from 41 a half up to

play17:40

44 right angle Sports we released over

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42 going back to it with the New York

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Giants over uh just really looking

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against that Washington Commander

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secondary which was absolutely atrocious

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and picked apart by the Tampa Bay

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Buccaneers uh that is a very bad unit in

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the defense def backfield for Washington

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without many answers you're looking at

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starting cornerbacks with grades in the

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30s going up against those Buccaneers

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wide receivers for the Giants it was

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pretty hopeless and helpless against the

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Minnesota Vikings and Brian Flores but

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that was a Flores defense that brought a

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ton of pressure and had a lot of success

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it's not going to be the same with the

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Washington commanders and if you have

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this Malik neighbors squeaky wheel

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emerging I know a lot of those quotes

play18:23

and videos were taken out of context

play18:24

online there was a 4-minute clip that

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was cut down to a 20 second clip again

play18:29

everybody's out to make bad of Daniel

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Jones the way he looked on the field

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certainly deservingly so against the

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Vikings but that neighbors clip was a

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little out of context but I certainly

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think he's going to be involved we saw

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Mike Evans uh be wide open at times we

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even saw out of the backfield for Rashad

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white have success if the Giants are

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going to end up going to check Downs

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with some of their depth backs too I

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think there's a path for both of these

play18:51

offenses and this total is up to 44 and

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trending higher LA Rams on the road at

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the Arizona Cardinals the Cardinals go

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from a two-point dog to a one and a half

play19:01

Point favorite total 48 is up to 49 A2

play19:05

for the LA Rams it's all about watching

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the offensive line we know now that puka

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nakua is on IR he is going to miss at

play19:12

least four games but you have not boom a

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Vila two other offensive linemen for the

play19:17

Rams in jeopardy with their status for

play19:20

this game it's an interesting market and

play19:22

interesting scenario because how much of

play19:25

that Rams effort against the Lions was

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driven by Stafford going back the

play19:29

Revenge angle was that McVey maximizing

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the offense and getting all he could out

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of it in that one spot it seemed wildly

play19:37

impressive in the moment and it was

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there's no question about it but that is

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not a sustainable way to play in the NFL

play19:45

for the Rams going forward so if there

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are still these injuries for McVey to

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get an equal amount of effort and

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execution out of this team for another

play19:55

week that is a very very very steep ask

play19:59

now the Market's moving towards Arizona

play20:02

there was Intrigue by the market early

play20:05

against the Buffalo Bills Bill's money

play20:07

came back late that game fell right on

play20:08

the number could have they found Marvin

play20:11

Harrison wide open late in the game to

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have the go-ahead touchdown possibly

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they were still leading the bill 173 and

play20:18

were a third down conversion away from

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potentially taking that into the half

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the Arizona Cardinals in many ways

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despite some anemic offensive numbers as

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a whole looked quite impressive in that

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game against the

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bills now they go home for their home

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opener hosting the Rams off of a tough

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overtime loss against the Lions where

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you just wonder what do the Rams have

play20:40

left in the tank for a Repeat

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Performance in week two Cincinnati on

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the road at the Kansas City Chiefs three

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and a half on the look ahead is out to

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six waiting on news for Jamar Chase

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being officially 100% last week he

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deemed himself as limited still had a

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relatively decent performance all things

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considered as is the leading receiver

play20:59

for the Bengals but the big film

play21:01

takeaway from so many people I respect

play21:03

is this Bengals offense is not the same

play21:07

without both Chase and Higgins on the

play21:09

field and Higgins status certainly seems

play21:12

in Jeopardy for this game now this

play21:14

number was out to six and a half during

play21:16

the reaction podcast and there was no

play21:18

way that that could hold that was just

play21:20

too big of a number we're seeing five

play21:22

and a half start to show at a couple

play21:23

Sports books soft six at Chris so

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there's some number grabbing here going

play21:28

on with the Cincinnati Bengals if

play21:30

Higgins doesn't go I think you still go

play21:33

into this game with offensive concerns

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for Cincinnati I I fully believe it's

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going to be better than what they put on

play21:39

the field against the New England

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Patriots and we're also on Hollywood

play21:42

Brown watch for the Kansas City Chiefs

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if you add his speed on the field this

play21:47

Bengals defense is really going to be

play21:49

tested in the back field um they weren't

play21:52

really pushed a lot by the Pats in that

play21:55

regard we know that Kansas City is going

play21:57

to be able to run you think about the

play21:58

weakness in the Bengals it's the

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interior of the D line when you think

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about the strength of the Chiefs

play22:03

offensive line it's in the interior so

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this is a spot where PCO can be dominant

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and if you have speed threats out wide

play22:10

Kansas City's moving the football so

play22:12

Bengals offensive uptick you have the

play22:14

Kansas City Chiefs likely getting more

play22:17

out of their offense in a better matchup

play22:19

and a worse defense than what they faced

play22:21

against the Ravens the red angle Sports

play22:23

we released the over at 46 and a half

play22:26

and I would be surprised if this total

play22:28

uh ends up coming back that way there

play22:30

was some under money that came in early

play22:33

on Monday I I just really did not agree

play22:36

with that at all uh when you're looking

play22:37

at this I just I don't think a Bengals

play22:40

Chiefs game can have a shorter total

play22:44

than a Bengals Ravens game uh not with

play22:46

the way the Bengals defense looked

play22:47

against the New England Patriots

play22:49

Steelers on the road at the Denver

play22:50

Broncos Pittsburgh a soft three-point

play22:52

favored across the board total from 40

play22:55

and a half down to a flat 36 we are

play22:58

trending back to Steelers totals

play23:00

territory in December of last year where

play23:02

we were in the low3s uh nobody wants any

play23:06

part of the Broncos and B Knicks and

play23:08

that offense that was the worst

play23:09

performance of any team in week one and

play23:12

the Pittsburgh Steelers going back and

play23:14

forth about who is going to be the

play23:16

quarterback Denver has a much steeper

play23:18

challenge facing the Steelers defensive

play23:20

front and it was interesting to hear

play23:22

Shawn pyton say it as such he said the

play23:24

Steelers are in fact a better defense

play23:26

than Seattle and so to hear a head

play23:29

coach obviously praising another team

play23:32

and an opponent that's pretty common but

play23:34

to just openly and adamantly announced

play23:37

that it's a tougher test after the

play23:40

offense struggled that much doesn't give

play23:41

you a whole lot of optimism so that I

play23:44

thought that was a very interesting

play23:45

comment and again the Steelers win that

play23:47

game at Atlanta uh they didn't score an

play23:49

offensive touchdown so makes a lot of

play23:51

sense to see this total come down Sunday

play23:53

Night Football it's the Chicago Bears on

play23:55

the road at the Houston Texans Romo dun

play23:58

is is a name to watch on the injury

play23:59

report as he is getting further tests

play24:01

for his lower body injury get more news

play24:04

on that today Houston out to a flat 7o

play24:06

favorite across the board total from 46

play24:08

a half down to 45 A2 then it is Monday

play24:11

Night Football Atlanta on the road at

play24:13

the Philadelphia Eagles the Eagles

play24:15

continue to take money even at 6 and A2

play24:17

now out to 62 minus 120 with the total

play24:21

holding steady at 47 another big film

play24:23

takeaway from all of the Monday reports

play24:26

was the Kirk Cousins was sitting in

play24:28

shotgun it was a career high rate for

play24:30

shotgun it was a career high rate for

play24:32

pistol it was a career low rate for

play24:34

being under Center we know Kurt Cousins

play24:37

is a quarterback that thrives being

play24:39

under Center and running play action

play24:41

Falcons didn't use it real chance to Kur

play24:44

cousins is still dealing with

play24:46

limitations coming off of the injury and

play24:48

that gives a whole lot of concern about

play24:50

the Atlanta Falcons Outlook going

play24:52

forward and what decision they might

play24:54

have to make nothing confirmed we'll get

play24:56

all the pressers on Wednesday and hear

play24:58

more about it some practice reports too

play25:01

but that starts to look awfully

play25:02

concerning for Kirk Cousins and the

play25:04

Atlanta Falcons a very I will call it

play25:08

fun and messy week to shaping up lots to

play25:11

talk about lots of little quirks with

play25:13

games matchup wise lots of injuries

play25:16

having impacts a couple cluster injuries

play25:18

sporting around not a ton of crazy

play25:21

movement there was a lot of adjustments

play25:23

from the look ahads to where we are now

play25:24

a lot of overreactions and I think the

play25:26

big thing that we're looking at is just

play25:28

just a lot of teams from week one

play25:30

looking a lot better or a lot worse just

play25:33

based on the opponent's day play

play25:36

exacerbating some of the strengths and

play25:37

weaknesses of teams and I think we're

play25:39

going to see a lot of those come back

play25:41

down to earth in week two so there's

play25:44

some interesting potential bets to make

play25:46

that we will continue to talk about

play25:47

throughout the week as numbers start to

play25:50

materialize as we go forward one other

play25:52

note before everybody gets on to their

play25:55

day here on Tuesday overs go 9 and seven

play25:59

in week one but there is just one passer

play26:02

for the week that goes over 300 yards

play26:06

that was Tua in Miami what is driving

play26:09

all of the scoring despite not having

play26:12

Elite quarterback play almost anywhere

play26:14

in the league part of it definitely

play26:16

comes from the field goal size that we

play26:18

had seven more 50 yard plus field goals

play26:21

made in week one than any other week in

play26:25

NFL history teams are attempting longer

play26:28

field goals at a higher rate than ever

play26:30

before and kickers are making them

play26:33

through one week so far this season at a

play26:35

rate that is nearly the same as the old

play26:38

extra point rule before they moved it

play26:41

back to the 33 yard line so kickers were

play26:44

dominant in week one and we'll have to

play26:46

see if that Trend continues because

play26:48

obviously a lot more teams starting six

play26:50

seven eight yards further than typical

play26:53

with the new kickoff rule on how teams

play26:54

are playing that so they're now in

play26:56

position to kick these field goals more

play26:58

often than

play26:59

usual really bad quarterback play in

play27:02

week one but special teams kickers on

play27:05

offense having a historically good start

play27:08

to the season so some total Intrigue

play27:11

will definitely play out in that in week

play27:13

two and week three going forward that'll

play27:15

do it for me today have a fantastic

play27:17

Tuesday everybody we'll chat to you

play27:19

tomorrow morning on the podcast

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