NFL Week 2 Betting Lines Rundown | The Simple Handicap Podcast - Tuesday September 10th, 2024
Summary
TLDRThe host delivers a comprehensive NFL Week 2 market rundown, analyzing point spreads, player injuries, and team performances. Key matchups include Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, with injury concerns for Buffalo's Teron Johnson impacting the game. The host also discusses the Chargers' impressive coaching and the Saints' offense, suggesting overreactions to Week 1 performances. Other notable games feature the Rams' offensive line struggles and the potential absence of key players like Jamar Chase for the Bengals. Special teams' impact on scoring, with a record number of long field goals, is highlighted, setting the stage for intriguing Week 2 bets.
Takeaways
- π The podcast covers the NFL Week 2 market rundown, discussing every point spread, total, and game on the board.
- π The Miami Dolphins are favored against the Buffalo Bills, with the spread moving from -3 to -2.5 and the total points adjusting from 50.5 to 49.
- π€ Key injuries to watch include Buffalo's Taron Johnson and Miami's Tua Tagovailoa, which could impact the game's dynamics.
- π The Baltimore Ravens are favored against the Las Vegas Raiders, with the total points dropping from 43.5 to 41 due to the Raiders' lackluster offensive performance.
- π¨ The Carolina Panthers are heavily scrutinized after a poor showing against the Jets, leading to a significant line movement in favor of the LA Chargers.
- π― The Dallas Cowboys are favored against the New Orleans Saints, with concerns about the Saints' offensive line and the Cowboys' pass rush.
- π The Detroit Lions are favored against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the total points expected to rise due to potential injuries in the Buccaneers' secondary.
- π€ The Green Bay Packers' line has shifted dramatically due to doubts about Jordan Love's ability to replace Aaron Rodgers, with a significant point spread adjustment.
- π The Jacksonville Jaguars are favored against the Cleveland Browns, with the Browns' situation regarding Deshaun Watson adding complexity to the matchup.
- β½οΈ The podcast notes an unusual trend in Week 1 where kickers had a historically good start, impacting the total scores despite poor quarterback performances.
Q & A
What is the main focus of the discussion in the provided transcript?
-The main focus of the discussion is a detailed analysis of the betting lines and game insights for NFL Week 2, including point spreads, totals, and injury reports affecting the games.
Which team is favored in the Thursday Night Football game between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins?
-The Miami Dolphins are favored in the Thursday Night Football game against the Buffalo Bills.
What is the significance of the injury to Teron Johnson of the Buffalo Bills?
-Teron Johnson's injury is significant as he is a key player in the defensive backfield, and his absence could greatly impact the Bills' ability to defend against the Miami Dolphins' offense.
What was the initial point spread for the game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Baltimore Ravens?
-The initial point spread for the game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Baltimore Ravens was 3.5 points in favor of the Ravens.
What is the uncertainty surrounding Lamar Jackson's participation in the Baltimore Ravens' game?
-There is uncertainty surrounding Lamar Jackson's participation due to his absence from practice and the vague responses from the coaching staff regarding his injury status.
How did the Carolina Panthers' performance in Week 1 affect the betting lines for their Week 2 game?
-The Carolina Panthers' poor performance in Week 1 led to a significant increase in the point spread for their Week 2 game, with the LA Chargers becoming a 6.5-point favorite.
What is the concern regarding the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense in their game against the Detroit Lions?
-The concern is that the Buccaneers' defense might be down four defensive backs, which could impact their performance against the Detroit Lions' offense.
Why is there a significant change in the betting line for the Green Bay Packers after their Week 1 game?
-There is a significant change in the betting line for the Green Bay Packers due to the uncertainty over the starting quarterback, with Jordan Love replacing Aaron Rodgers, leading to a drop in the team's perceived strength.
What is the potential impact of the injury to the offensive line of the LA Rams in their Week 2 game?
-The injury to the offensive line of the LA Rams could significantly impact their offensive performance, as it may limit their ability to protect the quarterback and establish a running game.
How did the performance of the New England Patriots' offense in Week 1 affect the betting lines for their Week 2 game against the Seattle Seahawks?
-The New England Patriots' offense performed well in Week 1, leading to the Seattle Seahawks being installed as a 3-point favorite in their Week 2 game, reflecting the improved perception of the Patriots' offensive capabilities.
Outlines
π NFL Week 2 Market Rundown
The host kicks off the show discussing the NFL Week 2 matchups, emphasizing the importance of analyzing point spreads and totals for each game. They highlight the Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins game, noting the fluctuating odds and the impact of injuries on the teams. The host also appreciates the viewers on YouTube and listeners on Apple and Spotify, encouraging engagement through likes and subscriptions. A detailed look at the Thursday Night Football matchup is provided, along with insights into player injuries and their potential influence on the game's outcome.
π In-Depth Analysis of NFL Betting Lines
This segment delves deeper into the betting lines for various NFL games, including the Las Vegas Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens and the LA Chargers vs. Carolina Panthers. The host discusses the movement in the betting lines, the potential impact of key player injuries, and the strategic approach of teams based on their previous performances. They also speculate on the likelihood of certain players participating in upcoming games and how this might affect the odds and public perception.
π¨ Key Injuries and Their Impact on NFL Games
The focus of this part is on the significant injuries that could sway the outcomes of several NFL games. The host discusses how teams are coping with the loss of key players and the strategies they might employ to compensate. Specific attention is given to the impact of injuries on the offensive and defensive lines, as well as the potential for backup quarterbacks to step in and change the dynamics of the game.
π Cross-Country Challenges and Coaching Dynamics
The host addresses the challenges faced by teams traveling long distances for games and how this might affect their performance. They also comment on the changing dynamics within team locker rooms, particularly noting the shift in atmosphere under new coaching staff. The summary also touches on the potential for certain teams to surprise with their performance, based on the coaching strategies and player morale.
ποΈ Home and Away Game Dynamics
This section discusses the advantages and challenges teams face when playing at home versus being on the road. The host evaluates how certain teams' performances in their home opener might set the tone for the rest of the season. They also consider how the support or lack thereof from home crowds can influence the game's outcome, with specific reference to teams that have shown significant changes in their home game strategies.
π€ Injury Updates and Their Influence on Game Odds
The host provides updates on player injuries and their influence on game odds. They discuss how the absence of key players can lead to shifts in betting lines and how the market reacts to such news. The summary also includes speculation on how teams might adjust their strategies to accommodate for missing players and the potential impact on the game's total points.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘Handicap
π‘Point Spread
π‘Total
π‘Injury Report
π‘Betting Market
π‘Money Line
π‘Underdog
π‘Favored
π‘Opening Line
π‘Look-Ahead Line
Highlights
Market rundown for NFL Week 2, discussing every point spread and total game.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins game analysis, including point spread and total.
Injury updates for Teron Johnson and potential impact on the Bills' defense.
Discussion on Miami Dolphins' injury report and its effect on the game's total and point spread.
Thursday Night Football analysis and expectations for the Bills and Dolphins.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens game breakdown, including the impact of Lamar Jackson's injury.
LA Chargers vs. Carolina Panthers line movement and team performance analysis.
Carolina Panthers' defensive issues and how the Chargers might exploit them.
New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys game expectations and over/under total discussion.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions game analysis, focusing on injuries to the Buccaneers' defense.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers quarterback adjustments and their impact on the line.
Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars game insights, including potential changes in the Browns' strategy.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings game analysis and potential absence of key players.
Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots game expectations and travel considerations for the Seahawks.
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders game analysis and the Giants' offensive potential.
LA Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals game discussion, including the Rams' offensive line injuries.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos game insights, focusing on the Broncos' offensive struggles.
Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans game preview, with injury updates on key players.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles game analysis, including concerns over Kirk Cousins' play style.
Summary of week one's NFL games, noting the prevalence of field goals and the impact on scoring.
Transcripts
good morning everybody the simple
handicap for Tuesday September 10th
thank you for making me a part of your
morning we'll get straight to the market
rundown for Tuesday because there's a
whole lot to talk about as we put week
one in the rearview mirror and start
looking forward to NFL Week number two
so we're going to go through every point
spread total game on the board we'll
talk about everything that you need to
know to get you on your way this Tuesday
Morning want to give a shout out to
everybody watching on YouTube lots of
folks listening on Apple and Spotify
each and every morning but the YouTube
numbers for the first time I've ever
done the podcast each morning on video
have been substantial for week one so
thank you very much if you're watching
if it's your first time there's a
subscribe button down below appreciate
if you hit like as well and if you're
lisening through your headphones on
Apple or Spotify on your way to work
maybe you're walking the dog getting
ready for your Tuesday morning I
appreciate you very much as well tuning
in let's get to it with the market
rundown for NFL Week number two starts
off Thursday Night Football Buffalo
Bills on the road at the Miami Dolphins
this was Miami 2 at open got up to 2 and
1/2 there was some shading towards three
soon as it got there we saw Bill's money
come back and we're down to Miami minus
2 at Chris minus one and a half almost
everywhere across the board the total
was up as high as 50 and a half it is
now coming down we are to a flat 49 this
morning with 48 and a half showing at
Pinnacle FanDuel DK and a few other
places as well but Chris and cira
holding steady at 49 couple injuries to
watch in this one the biggest one for
the Buffalo Bills is going to be teron
Johnson and the defens of backfield he
is going to to missed the game with the
forearm injury their main nickel Corner
arguably the best defensive back that
they have on the roster his absence is
certainly going to matter a ton against
this Miami Dolphins offense with Tyreek
Hill Jaylen Wadd and a ton of speed the
Miami injury report is going to be
highlighted by aan as well as mostart
both guys were dnps on Monday worth
monitoring their status today obviously
in the injury report as that's going to
have an impact on both the total and
potentially the point spread too uh
varying reports to how severe the injury
to hn is I think he's the guy that most
people will be watching his prop
receiving number took a lot of money
over last week prior to the game he's
going to have a big impact on what this
Dolphins offense is going to look like
but uh we are seeing this total start to
come in because we saw the bills go very
run heavy try to keep things between the
tackles and the main criticism of the
Dolphins offense this morning after a
lot of folks published film review look
back throughout the box score and ex it
a little more very very Boomer bust for
Miami they had a couple of big plays but
not a lot of sustained offense against
that Jacksonville defense and so the way
that the bills played against the
Cardinals very soft a ton of off
coverage kept everything in front did
not allow a lot of explosives you would
think those two matchups could provide
for an interesting look at this total
but I say maybe a little bit surprised
we haven't seen touch more Miami money
come in and there was that reversal on
Buffalo so if the moves on the the board
that stand out to me from Monday uh how
quick the bills were taken up maybe
stands out to me perhaps more than
others let's get to Sunday it's Las
Vegas on the road at the Baltimore
Ravens Ravens a n and a half Point
favored across the board with a total of
41 that is down from 43 and a half at
open as under money comes in after a
lackluster Raiders offensive performance
against the Chargers and the Ravens well
probably going to find themselves in a
spot where they're playing from ahead
now the big question with Baltimore
Lamar Jackson not practicing John
Harbaugh's in Peak mid-season form with
how he's replying to reporters saying
the injury report comes out on Wednesday
so we're getting nothing from him Lamar
just pops up on the injury report
sporadically throughout the season so
it's not new it's not a surprise but who
knows what he deals with on a weekly
basis at this point it's just so hard to
figure out what in the world goes on
when he hits the injury report it's
incredibly difficult to gauge the
severity too so hard to say what we're
getting from that the market certainly
doesn't think there's much as this
number has pushed up to 9 1 half and is
leaning towards 10 at a lot of places
from the eight that initially hit the
board at open La charges on the road at
the Carolina Panthers the Chargers out
to his big of a as a 6 and a half Point
favorite this morning this opened three
and a half if you were watching the live
stream reaction to opening lines I was
looking at it I'm like this is going to
go up and it's been going up and I would
say it's to the point now where you have
to you have to start thinking about
Carolina
um boy I I I read a ton today and got a
ton of opinions from other people I
respect had a lot of conversations went
back and forth it was it was a full day
at the screen before the Jets game that
started at 6:00 in the morning we had
releases
early and the the Carolina Panthers were
just torn apart by anybody that watches
and covers the NFL and there was just
nothing that was positive taken away
from that and on the other hand it was
the Chargers who really played such a
clean game and were so well coached that
the opinion to me on the Chargers was
strong coming into the season I'm
talking about people looking at the
Outlook of the team and it's it went
from being yeah maybe to like adamant
how well coached and buttoned up this
team is and like Jo Al is getting
praised and the Run game is getting
praised what I will say is the Run game
was quite Boomer bust for the Chargers
when you look at the game as a whole it
wasn't a lot of sustain there was a lot
of big plays overcoming a lot of
infrequent like no gains or very short
gains look Carolina and that defensive
front now losing Derek Brown for the
season it's their best defensive lineman
that news came through yesterday there's
going to be nothing there and so it's
like the Chargers can just walk all over
Carolina in theory on this matchup
looking on paper but like how high do
these numbers need to go for Carolina
before we see something from them to get
it going the other way cuz it's been one
way so far in the LA Chargers Saints on
the road at the Dallas Cowboys Dallas
open 6 and 1 Half Point favorite still 6
and a half across the screen total up
from 442 to 45 A2 and trending higher
think we see this get to 46 or perhaps
push up a little bit more this is a game
that I talked about on the reaction
podcast where it's like both teams
overachieved so much that it offsets but
I would say right now sitting here
Tuesday morning my one take from week
one that's overreaction related would be
that the Saints offense looked way
better than it actually is and I start
to worry about that big weakness on the
offensive line it looked great against
Carolina with no pass rush now you face
a very good pass rush in the Dallas
Cowboys what is that going to look like
with Carr being as sensitive to pressure
as he is so if this was a scenario where
the expectations for the Saints remained
in check and we saw the Cowboys against
the Browns outperform as much as they
did would we still be sitting at six and
a half I don't think so Tampa Bay on the
road at the Detroit Lions Detroit now a
seven-point favorite across the board
total in this game is 51 didn't get to
talk about the Lions directly I had a
tweet in reaction to the game that came
out thought they really got away from
their identity in the second half which
is using the offensive line running the
football that is the strength of this
team we saw them get back to it in
overtime and look amazing against the
Rams now in this game they face a Tampa
Bay Bucks defense that is going to be
potentially down four defensive backs
from the guys that they had going on the
field in week one including Antoine
Winfield who's one of the better
safeties in the NFL this is the first
big early season cluster injury that a
team is going to have to deal with and
overcome the Dallas or the Detroit Lions
weren't able to really exploit the ram
secondary that were down guys as much as
I thought they could Jameson Williams
looked amazing but St Brown was really a
non-factor I think it's going to be
imperative that they get that passing
game working which at home in this spot
against this Buccaneers defense could
absolutely come to fruition might be a
little bit more challenging to run the
football if the Bucks defensive line is
healthy they were down two starters
against Washington Washington found a
lot of success off of QB scrambles with
Jaden Daniels but Robinson had a big
contribution to the as well keep an eye
on what we're getting from the Bucks
defensive line cuz that could really
shift the Lions game plan and that would
obviously have a pretty big impact on
this total Indianapolis on the road at
the Green Bay Packers Indie a 3us 120
favorite across the board total in this
game opened on the look ahe headline
last week at 47 we are now down to 41
shaded
under it is going to be Willis under
centered believe it or not for the Green
Bay Packers
to me the connection between Ryan tanah
Hill and Matt laflor made a lot of sense
dating back to the Tennessee days where
they were working together thought that
was going to be the route that the
Packers went after those Sunday reports
came out before kickoff about how the
two were in touch I'm not sure what left
um Willis as the starter for Green Bay
or how that didn't work out but all
signs point to Willis being the starter
now let's put this number in some
context so in predictable has Market
reflected power ratings from 1 to 32
that mirror what is going on in the
betting Market they also have a
spreadsheet where they show quarterback
adjustments that are made for injuries
they have the drop from Jordan love to
Willis as a six-point drop which would
match the highest drop or deduction that
an NFL team has faced over the last two
seasons the other two that matched this
were Dak Prescott back in 2022 when he
was hurt in week one against the
Buccaneers and they went to Cooper Rush
that was graded as a six-point drop and
the other six-point drop was last season
for the LA Chargers when Justin Herbert
went down and Easton stick came in so we
have this quarterback drop by the market
ratings being viewed as a six-point
deduction we have seen this line go from
Green Bay minus5 to Indie minus 3 - 20
so the market ratings and and how they
view the quarterback drop as saying six
the betting Market is saying eight
anytime we've seen this get to 3 and A2
there's been Packer money coming in I
always tend to look at the backup QB
getting the start getting a discount it
was very successful for us last year
with bets and
releases haven't been able to get there
yet with this game there's just so much
concern about Willis and what he's going
to be in this offense and how they can
adjust so quickly I think it's going to
be a pretty dramatic change a lot of
uncertainty with this one and the Colts
just they looked solid on offense and
they didn't really get to push the Run
game which the eagles found a lot of
holes in the Brazil game whether that
was field condition related or not but
even with the Packers defensive changes
they still seemed susceptible to the Run
game and I'm worried with that
Richardson Taylor mesh point in the back
field what that could be but I I'm
certainly intrigued with Green Bay in
this spot just because of the discount
it it's it's noticeably gone too far I
mean this is Aaron Rogers in his Peak
Prime to Scott toline drop territory
when we're looking at this big of an
adjustment and I just I don't think it
could be that much the argument against
that is that the Packers were overrated
at that five to begin with um lots of
ways you can look at it but that's how
it's being graded in the market
currently Cleveland on the road at the
Jacksonville ja Jags the Jags are 3 and
A2 Point favorites minus 110 total from
44 1/2 down to 41 1/2 I will say at Red
angle Sports we had a release on this
game I won't say which one just yet this
early in the week we're going to see
where this number continues to Trend if
you're interested in future releases we
could potentially have more today you
can head over to ri.com NFL but we're
looking at the Jags again as a three and
a half Point favorite across the board
they were the one team that really came
out of week one where they were being
viewed as the team that likely got a
worse W than they should have deserved
based on how the game played out 177
late in the third quarter driving with
etn going across the goal line to score
he fumbles they end up losing the game
20 to 17 followed up with some poor
decisions between the end of the third
quarter and about the three minute Mark
remaining in the fourth quarter is just
Peterson getting in his own way and this
team making mistakes the Miami Dolphins
come back that 400 yard Mark that the
Jags conceded on defense didn't
necessarily look as bad as it did in the
Box Score when going back and watching
the games but it was a pretty
comfortable game for Lawrence and the
offense now it's certainly going to be a
different scenario against this Browns
defensive front which is going to make
things pretty unsettled for Lawrence in
the pocket really test this offense and
how good they looked and there's a major
question about what are we getting with
this Browns team going forward is this a
dead team is now the current suit
against the Browns and deshun Watson or
against directly deshun Watson I guess
is that going to linger into how the
Browns try to pursue this going forward
it seems potentially now that the Browns
have an out based on some reports where
there's a chance that due to NFL Clauses
they potentially have a way to get out
of this contract with Watson does that
now flip the Browns from supporting him
to working against him is there a reason
to start jamus Winston and if you're
looking at this and Winston does start
based on what we saw from Watson against
the Cowboys you have to think that
Winston is potentially an upgrade in
this scenario what does that do to the
number a lot going on here in this
matchup that we'll continue to watch as
this line moves throughout the week San
Francisco Minnesota still not widely
available uh this was San Francisco
minus 7 on the look ahead late Sunday
game or lines that were up had this a
lot lower after the Minnesota
performance I get a good feeling that
we're going to see this tick up closer
and go back towards seven just based on
how dominant the 49ers looked uh there
was an interesting report from Adam
shefer where he was saying that there is
a chance that this game will be missed
by Christian mcaffrey too as the 49ers
are not inclined to push him to return
it's an artificial turf game as well in
Minnesota more difficult on the injury
that he is dealing with and so there's a
chance that it is going to be another
Mason game out of the backfield for the
San Francisco
49ers Seattle Seahawks going across the
country to take on the New England
Patriots Seattle a expensive three-point
favorite across the board total from 41
down to 38 I appreciate the couple
direct messages I got confirming that
Seattle to Miami is in fact 22 minutes
longer than Seattle to Foxboro for the
flight I said yesterday on the podcast
this was the longest trip um I was off
by 22 minutes still a very very long
trip it is still a young coaching staff
I'll say what stood out to me with
Seattle that I think is pretty promising
for the team going forward
the post game sort of locker view or
locker room candid view that went around
on social and was making the rounds of
Mike McDonald doing the speeches and the
team around him when you put that up
side by side with the same videos from
the peak Carroll era especially late in
the peak Carol era like it's so
different and it feels so much more
serious and so much more bought in for
Mike McDonald I mean everybody in the
locker room loved Pete Caroll and his
energy was infectious but he he needed
that energy to elevate everyone around
him as he got into his mid to late 70s
and the defense started to struggle and
the offense was inconsistent Mike
McDonald is just like all business and
it was interesting to see that
difference in the Seattle locker room
because it hasn't been there for years
under Pete Caroll it was such a
different feeling in that locker room
and now you see it with McDonald and
you're like this could get pretty
interesting and that defense was
dominant against bones Knicks and so
they get a pretty attainable matchup
here against the New England Patriots
offense but it is more than a field goal
now being laid on the road in a bit of a
cross country test for Seattle Jets
Titans still off of the board this was
Jets four on the look ahead total was 43
a half I would fully expect this total
to open lower than 43 and a half but
then there's going to be a decision to
make are the Jets an over team with a
defense that's not nearly as good as we
all thought it was coming into the year
was that San Francisco making it look
worse than it is and what do we get from
this Titans offense that really made
mistakes down the stretch against the
Bears defense that is now coming through
with inconsistent rating so I think
there's going to be some back and forth
on this total probably see the point
spread open up right where it was on the
look ahead around four I think you're
going to see decisions being made there
too again how much was the Jets
offensive line and the Run game
struggles due to the 49ers front
certainly going to be different against
the Titans defensive front which is a
big step back from the San Francisco
49ers Giants on the road at the
Washington commanders Washington a 2 and
a half Point favored across the board
total in this game from 41 a half up to
44 right angle Sports we released over
42 going back to it with the New York
Giants over uh just really looking
against that Washington Commander
secondary which was absolutely atrocious
and picked apart by the Tampa Bay
Buccaneers uh that is a very bad unit in
the defense def backfield for Washington
without many answers you're looking at
starting cornerbacks with grades in the
30s going up against those Buccaneers
wide receivers for the Giants it was
pretty hopeless and helpless against the
Minnesota Vikings and Brian Flores but
that was a Flores defense that brought a
ton of pressure and had a lot of success
it's not going to be the same with the
Washington commanders and if you have
this Malik neighbors squeaky wheel
emerging I know a lot of those quotes
and videos were taken out of context
online there was a 4-minute clip that
was cut down to a 20 second clip again
everybody's out to make bad of Daniel
Jones the way he looked on the field
certainly deservingly so against the
Vikings but that neighbors clip was a
little out of context but I certainly
think he's going to be involved we saw
Mike Evans uh be wide open at times we
even saw out of the backfield for Rashad
white have success if the Giants are
going to end up going to check Downs
with some of their depth backs too I
think there's a path for both of these
offenses and this total is up to 44 and
trending higher LA Rams on the road at
the Arizona Cardinals the Cardinals go
from a two-point dog to a one and a half
Point favorite total 48 is up to 49 A2
for the LA Rams it's all about watching
the offensive line we know now that puka
nakua is on IR he is going to miss at
least four games but you have not boom a
Vila two other offensive linemen for the
Rams in jeopardy with their status for
this game it's an interesting market and
interesting scenario because how much of
that Rams effort against the Lions was
driven by Stafford going back the
Revenge angle was that McVey maximizing
the offense and getting all he could out
of it in that one spot it seemed wildly
impressive in the moment and it was
there's no question about it but that is
not a sustainable way to play in the NFL
for the Rams going forward so if there
are still these injuries for McVey to
get an equal amount of effort and
execution out of this team for another
week that is a very very very steep ask
now the Market's moving towards Arizona
there was Intrigue by the market early
against the Buffalo Bills Bill's money
came back late that game fell right on
the number could have they found Marvin
Harrison wide open late in the game to
have the go-ahead touchdown possibly
they were still leading the bill 173 and
were a third down conversion away from
potentially taking that into the half
the Arizona Cardinals in many ways
despite some anemic offensive numbers as
a whole looked quite impressive in that
game against the
bills now they go home for their home
opener hosting the Rams off of a tough
overtime loss against the Lions where
you just wonder what do the Rams have
left in the tank for a Repeat
Performance in week two Cincinnati on
the road at the Kansas City Chiefs three
and a half on the look ahead is out to
six waiting on news for Jamar Chase
being officially 100% last week he
deemed himself as limited still had a
relatively decent performance all things
considered as is the leading receiver
for the Bengals but the big film
takeaway from so many people I respect
is this Bengals offense is not the same
without both Chase and Higgins on the
field and Higgins status certainly seems
in Jeopardy for this game now this
number was out to six and a half during
the reaction podcast and there was no
way that that could hold that was just
too big of a number we're seeing five
and a half start to show at a couple
Sports books soft six at Chris so
there's some number grabbing here going
on with the Cincinnati Bengals if
Higgins doesn't go I think you still go
into this game with offensive concerns
for Cincinnati I I fully believe it's
going to be better than what they put on
the field against the New England
Patriots and we're also on Hollywood
Brown watch for the Kansas City Chiefs
if you add his speed on the field this
Bengals defense is really going to be
tested in the back field um they weren't
really pushed a lot by the Pats in that
regard we know that Kansas City is going
to be able to run you think about the
weakness in the Bengals it's the
interior of the D line when you think
about the strength of the Chiefs
offensive line it's in the interior so
this is a spot where PCO can be dominant
and if you have speed threats out wide
Kansas City's moving the football so
Bengals offensive uptick you have the
Kansas City Chiefs likely getting more
out of their offense in a better matchup
and a worse defense than what they faced
against the Ravens the red angle Sports
we released the over at 46 and a half
and I would be surprised if this total
uh ends up coming back that way there
was some under money that came in early
on Monday I I just really did not agree
with that at all uh when you're looking
at this I just I don't think a Bengals
Chiefs game can have a shorter total
than a Bengals Ravens game uh not with
the way the Bengals defense looked
against the New England Patriots
Steelers on the road at the Denver
Broncos Pittsburgh a soft three-point
favored across the board total from 40
and a half down to a flat 36 we are
trending back to Steelers totals
territory in December of last year where
we were in the low3s uh nobody wants any
part of the Broncos and B Knicks and
that offense that was the worst
performance of any team in week one and
the Pittsburgh Steelers going back and
forth about who is going to be the
quarterback Denver has a much steeper
challenge facing the Steelers defensive
front and it was interesting to hear
Shawn pyton say it as such he said the
Steelers are in fact a better defense
than Seattle and so to hear a head
coach obviously praising another team
and an opponent that's pretty common but
to just openly and adamantly announced
that it's a tougher test after the
offense struggled that much doesn't give
you a whole lot of optimism so that I
thought that was a very interesting
comment and again the Steelers win that
game at Atlanta uh they didn't score an
offensive touchdown so makes a lot of
sense to see this total come down Sunday
Night Football it's the Chicago Bears on
the road at the Houston Texans Romo dun
is is a name to watch on the injury
report as he is getting further tests
for his lower body injury get more news
on that today Houston out to a flat 7o
favorite across the board total from 46
a half down to 45 A2 then it is Monday
Night Football Atlanta on the road at
the Philadelphia Eagles the Eagles
continue to take money even at 6 and A2
now out to 62 minus 120 with the total
holding steady at 47 another big film
takeaway from all of the Monday reports
was the Kirk Cousins was sitting in
shotgun it was a career high rate for
shotgun it was a career high rate for
pistol it was a career low rate for
being under Center we know Kurt Cousins
is a quarterback that thrives being
under Center and running play action
Falcons didn't use it real chance to Kur
cousins is still dealing with
limitations coming off of the injury and
that gives a whole lot of concern about
the Atlanta Falcons Outlook going
forward and what decision they might
have to make nothing confirmed we'll get
all the pressers on Wednesday and hear
more about it some practice reports too
but that starts to look awfully
concerning for Kirk Cousins and the
Atlanta Falcons a very I will call it
fun and messy week to shaping up lots to
talk about lots of little quirks with
games matchup wise lots of injuries
having impacts a couple cluster injuries
sporting around not a ton of crazy
movement there was a lot of adjustments
from the look ahads to where we are now
a lot of overreactions and I think the
big thing that we're looking at is just
just a lot of teams from week one
looking a lot better or a lot worse just
based on the opponent's day play
exacerbating some of the strengths and
weaknesses of teams and I think we're
going to see a lot of those come back
down to earth in week two so there's
some interesting potential bets to make
that we will continue to talk about
throughout the week as numbers start to
materialize as we go forward one other
note before everybody gets on to their
day here on Tuesday overs go 9 and seven
in week one but there is just one passer
for the week that goes over 300 yards
that was Tua in Miami what is driving
all of the scoring despite not having
Elite quarterback play almost anywhere
in the league part of it definitely
comes from the field goal size that we
had seven more 50 yard plus field goals
made in week one than any other week in
NFL history teams are attempting longer
field goals at a higher rate than ever
before and kickers are making them
through one week so far this season at a
rate that is nearly the same as the old
extra point rule before they moved it
back to the 33 yard line so kickers were
dominant in week one and we'll have to
see if that Trend continues because
obviously a lot more teams starting six
seven eight yards further than typical
with the new kickoff rule on how teams
are playing that so they're now in
position to kick these field goals more
often than
usual really bad quarterback play in
week one but special teams kickers on
offense having a historically good start
to the season so some total Intrigue
will definitely play out in that in week
two and week three going forward that'll
do it for me today have a fantastic
Tuesday everybody we'll chat to you
tomorrow morning on the podcast
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