Steve Kornacki: 2024 polls show a 'significant' gender gap

Meet The Press NOW | NBC News NOW

20 Aug 202402:59

Summary

TLDRThe script discusses the gender gap in the presidential race, highlighting that in 2020, Trump won among men but had a 12.2% lead over Biden in pre-debate polls. Biden, however, won women by 13%. The current gender gap stands at 18 points nationally, with Trump leading men by 7% and trailing women by 9%. The script questions whether state-specific events or issues like abortion politics in battleground states might be influencing these gaps, suggesting that further observation is needed to understand if these state-specific gender gaps will persist or grow.

Takeaways

📊 In 2020, Trump won among men but had a 12.2% lead over Biden in the months before the election, which has since decreased to 7%.
🔍 Men tend to lean more Republican, whereas Biden won women by 13% in the month before the debate, with that lead decreasing to 5%.
🌟 Harris has seen an increase in support among women, leading by 9 points in the months since the debate.
🚹 Trump currently leads men by an average of 7 points, and women by 9 points, creating an 18-point gender gap nationally in 2020.
❓ The script raises a question mark over the gender gap in battleground states, suggesting that what is happening nationally may not be reflected there.
📈 In Michigan, Trump leads men by 20 points, with a 30-point gender gap, indicating significant differences in political preferences by gender.
⚠️ The script cautions that there could be statistical noise in the data, as seen in Pennsylvania where the gender gap is barely noticeable.
📉 The numbers can fluctuate, and the script suggests looking for state-specific events or issues that might be influencing the gender gap.
🤔 The discussion ponders whether abortion politics in certain states might be affecting the gender gap in voter preferences.
🔎 The script concludes by questioning whether we need to see more data to determine if state-specific gender gaps are significant or approaching the scale of the national gap.

Q & A

What was the gender gap in the 2020 presidential race according to the script?
-In the 2020 presidential race, the gender gap was 18 points, with Trump leading men by 7 points and Biden leading women by 13 points.
How did the gender gap change in the months leading up to the debate in 2020?
-In the months before the debate, Biden's lead with women decreased from 13 points to 5 points, while Trump's lead with men decreased from 12 points to 7 points.
What is the current average gender gap in the polls as mentioned in the script?
-The current average gender gap in the polls is 18 points, with Trump leading men by 7 points and Harris leading women by 9 points.
What is the significance of the gender gap in Michigan as per the script?
-In Michigan, Trump had a 20-point lead among men, which is a significant gender gap of 30 points when compared to Harris's 24 points among women.
Why might there be a cautionary note about the gender gap numbers in the script?
-There could be statistical noise in the gender gap numbers, as indicated by the script, which suggests that the numbers can fluctuate and may not be entirely reliable.
What is the situation regarding the gender gap in Pennsylvania according to the script?
-In Pennsylvania, the script mentions that there is barely a gender gap at all, indicating a more balanced distribution of support between men and women.
What factors might be affecting the gender gap in battleground states as discussed in the script?
-The script suggests that state-specific events, abortion politics, and other local issues might be affecting the gender gap in battleground states.
What is the question raised by the variations in the gender gap across different states?
-The script raises the question of whether there are state-specific factors causing variations in the gender gap, and whether these factors are significant enough to warrant further investigation.
Why is it important to monitor the gender gap in state-specific polls according to the script?
-Monitoring the gender gap in state-specific polls is important because it can reveal trends and potential shifts in voter preferences that might not be visible at the national level.
What does the script suggest about the necessity of seeing more data on the gender gap?
-The script suggests that more data is needed to determine if the observed state-specific gender gaps are consistent and significant, and to understand their implications for the election.

Outlines

00:00

📊 Gender Gap in the Presidential Race

This paragraph discusses the gender gap in the presidential race, focusing on the differences in polling numbers between men and women. In 2020, Trump won among men, but recent polls show a narrowing lead with Biden. Men tend to lean more Republican, while Biden won women by a significant margin. The gender gap is highlighted by comparing Trump's lead among men with his deficit among women. The paragraph also points out variations in this gap across different states, suggesting that state-specific events or issues like abortion politics might be influencing these numbers. The discussion raises questions about the consistency and impact of these state-specific gender gaps on the election.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Gender Gap

The 'Gender Gap' refers to the difference in opinions, preferences, or behaviors between men and women, particularly in the context of politics. In the video, it is discussed in relation to the presidential race, highlighting how the candidates fare differently among male and female voters. For instance, the script mentions that Trump leads among men by seven points, while Biden leads among women by nine points, illustrating the gender gap in voter preferences.

💡Polling

Polling is the practice of surveying a sample of the population to gauge public opinion on various issues, including political candidates. In the script, polling data is used to analyze the gender gap and support for the presidential candidates. The script references 'polling in the months before' and 'the average of all of the polls,' indicating the use of polling data to track and predict voter behavior.

💡Battleground States

Battleground states, also known as swing states, are those where the outcome of an election is uncertain and could potentially swing in favor of either party. The script mentions that while there is a significant gender gap nationally, the situation varies in battleground states, suggesting that local issues and events might influence the gender gap differently in these areas.

💡Statistical Noise

Statistical noise refers to random fluctuations or errors in data that can obscure the underlying trends or patterns. The script cautions about 'statistical noise' in the context of polling data, indicating that the large gender gap observed in Michigan might not be representative and could be due to random variations in the sample.

💡Abortion Politics

Abortion politics involves the political debate and legislation surrounding the issue of abortion rights. The script raises the question of whether state-specific abortion politics could be influencing the gender gap in certain states, suggesting that this issue might be a factor in how women voters are responding to the candidates.

💡National Trends

National trends refer to patterns or tendencies observed across the entire country. The script contrasts national trends with state-specific ones, noting that while there is an expected 18-point gender gap nationally, the situation in individual states might differ due to local factors.

💡State-Specific Events

State-specific events are occurrences that happen within a particular state and can influence local politics and voter behavior. The script suggests that events unique to certain states might be affecting the gender gap, implying that these events could be more impactful for voters in those states than national issues.

💡Swing States

Swing states, as mentioned earlier, are states where the election outcome is closely contested. The script highlights the importance of monitoring the gender gap in these states, as they are often decisive in the overall outcome of a presidential election.

💡Voter Preferences

Voter preferences refer to the choices and inclinations of voters regarding political candidates or issues. The script discusses how voter preferences differ between men and women, contributing to the gender gap in support for the presidential candidates.

💡Polling Data

Polling data is the information collected from polls that reflect public opinion. In the script, polling data is used to analyze the gender gap, with specific numbers provided to show the difference in support between men and women for the candidates.

💡Political Candidates

Political candidates are individuals running for elected office. The script discusses the gender gap in relation to the support for the presidential candidates, indicating how men and women may have different levels of support for Trump and Biden.

Highlights

The gender gap in the presidential race is a significant factor to consider.

In 2020, Trump won among men, but Biden was ahead in polling before the debate.

Trump's lead among men was 12.2 points above Biden in the months before the debate.

Currently, Trump's lead among men has decreased from 12 to 7 points.

Men tend to lean more Republican, while Biden won women by 13 points before the debate.

Harris has now increased her lead among women to 9 points in the months since the debate.

The gender gap is 18 points in 2020, with Trump leading men by 7 and Biden leading women by 9.

There is a significant gender gap in Michigan, with Trump leading by 20 points among men.

In Pennsylvania, the gender gap is barely noticeable, indicating state-specific differences.

State-specific events and issues, such as abortion politics, may be affecting the gender gap.

The gender gap in battleground states may not necessarily reflect the national trend.

Statistical noise could be present in the polling data, affecting the interpretation of the gender gap.

The need for more data is raised to understand the gender gap's consistency across states.

Further observation of state-specific gender gaps is necessary to draw conclusions about their scale.

The gender gap's impact on the election outcome is a critical area of focus for political analysts.