CFB DFS Picks Week 2 (Friday 9/6/24) | College Football Daily Fantasy Tips
Summary
TLDRIn this stochastic Channel video, Mesi dives into college football DFS for the Friday slate, offering insights on player data, Vegas lines, and team projections. He discusses specific games, analyzing player performances and strategies for Duke vs. Northwestern and BYU vs. SMU. Mesi provides detailed breakdowns on quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers, highlighting key players like Malik Murphy, Mike Wright, and Jordan Moore. He also touches on the importance of considering team defenses and coaching strategies when making DFS picks.
Takeaways
- π The video discusses college football DFS strategies for a Friday slate, focusing on player data and game analysis.
- π The presenter uses a player data, usage tool to analyze team and player statistics, including attempts per game and yards per game.
- π€ There's a detailed breakdown of the Duke vs. Northwestern game, with insights on the quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers.
- π The analysis highlights the potential challenges for Duke's quarterback Malik Murphy due to Northwestern's strong run defense.
- πββοΈ The running back situation at Duke is considered less promising, with a more spread-out role and a focus on pass-down work.
- π The presenter is not particularly interested in Duke's running back options due to their limited rushing attempts and Northwestern's defense.
- π For the Northwestern side, Mike Wright is highlighted as a key player in the run game, despite his lackluster passing performance.
- π― The video identifies AJ Henning and Bryce Curtis as the top two plays for Northwestern, with a high target share and consistent involvement.
- π€·ββοΈ There's a cautious approach to the tight end positions, with a focus on the potential value in the receiving game rather than the run game.
- ποΈ The video concludes with a look at other games on the slate, including BYU vs. SMU, with a focus on the high implied team totals and potential player performances.
Q & A
What does the speaker suggest to do before starting the analysis?
-The speaker suggests hitting the Thumbs Up Button, subscribing to the channel, and hitting the notification bell to help out the channel.
What type of data does the speaker discuss regarding college football?
-The speaker discusses player data, usage tool, projections, ownership, and the Sims tool, focusing on team by team data, Vegas data, and player statistics such as attempts per game, total yards, yards per game, and yards per carry.
How does the speaker describe the performance of Malik Murphy?
-The speaker describes Malik Murphy's performance as not very mobile, with 5.91 yards per carry, and suggests that his performance could be tough against a strong defense like Northwestern.
What is the speaker's opinion on the Duke running back situation?
-The speaker is not particularly interested in the Duke running back situation due to the team's pass-heavy approach and Northwestern's strong run defense.
Which player does the speaker consider the locked-in receiver of choice for Duke?
-The speaker considers Jordan Moore to be the locked-in receiver of choice for Duke, highlighting his high target share and yardage.
What is the speaker's view on the Northwestern quarterback, Mike Wright?
-The speaker views Mike Wright as a run-heavy quarterback with a lackluster passing performance, expecting consistent but not outstanding results.
What does the speaker suggest about the Northwestern running back committee?
-The speaker suggests that the Northwestern running back committee is a three-back timeshare, with Camp Porter leading the way, and Caleb KF being potentially undervalued by sportsbooks.
Which players does the speaker recommend focusing on for SMU's passing game?
-The speaker recommends focusing on AJ Henning and Bryce Curtis for SMU's passing game due to their high target share and consistent involvement.
What is the speaker's strategy for the BYU vs. SMU game?
-The speaker's strategy for the BYU vs. SMU game is to consider Preston Stone as a potential quarterback play and to focus on SMU's running backs and wide receivers for potential high-scoring plays.
How does the speaker evaluate the Indiana team's performance in the script?
-The speaker evaluates the Indiana team's performance as having a high implied team total and suggests looking at Curtis Roor as a safe quarterback option, along with Cameron Smith as a potential value play at running back.
Outlines
π College Football DFS: Duke vs Northwestern Analysis
Mesi begins by introducing a college football DFS discussion, focusing on the Duke vs Northwestern game. He emphasizes the importance of engaging with the channel through likes, subscriptions, and notifications. Mesi then transitions to discussing player data and usage tools, providing insights into team statistics, Vegas data, and player performance metrics like attempts per game and yards per carry. He scrutinizes the quarterback and running back situations for both teams, highlighting the potential challenges for Duke's offense against Northwestern's strong run defense. Mesi also touches on the receiving corps, noting the target shares and the potential for certain players to outperform their current pricing in DFS contests.
π In-Depth Look at Player Performance and Strategy
This paragraph delves deeper into the player performance and strategy for the Duke vs Northwestern game. Mesi discusses the running back committee, emphasizing the role distribution and potential outcomes based on each player's route participation and target shares. He also provides a detailed analysis of the quarterback situation, noting the passing tendencies and the potential for certain players to be over or under-projected by sportsbooks. The summary also includes a look at the tight end positions and the potential value in playing certain players based on their route participation and target rates.
ποΈ BYU vs SMU Matchup and Player Insights
Mesi shifts the focus to the BYU vs SMU game, providing a detailed analysis of the spread, total points, and player performances. He discusses the quarterback situation, highlighting Preston Stone's potential as a value play due to his split time with Kevin Jennings. The analysis continues with a look at the running back committee, noting injuries and potential workload distribution. Mesi also provides insights into the receiving corps, identifying key players like RJ Maryland and their target shares, and discusses the potential for certain players to see an increase in targets based on the game's dynamics.
π Western Illinois vs Indiana: Game Breakdown and DFS Considerations
In the final paragraph, Mesi discusses the Western Illinois vs Indiana matchup, providing a game breakdown and considerations for DFS. He covers the team's offensive pace, the quarterback situation with Nathan Lamb, and the backfield committee involving Cameron Smith, Torren Farmer, and Tyler Jordan Smith. Mesi also analyzes the wide receiver situation, identifying key players and their target shares, and discusses the potential for certain players to provide value in DFS contests. He concludes with a summary of the quarterback options, including Curtis Rooker, and provides a final assessment of the slate, highlighting the players he believes offer the most potential value.
Mindmap
Keywords
π‘DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports)
π‘FCS (Football Championship Subdivision)
π‘Projections
π‘Ownership
π‘Target share
π‘Vegas data
π‘Route participation
π‘Committee backfield
π‘Run-pass balance
π‘Stud
Highlights
Introduction to college football DFS Friday slate analysis
Emphasis on subscribing and engaging with the channel for updates
Explanation of the player data usage tool for college football analysis
Discussion on team data and Vegas lines for Duke vs. Northwestern game
Analysis of quarterback Malik Murphy's performance and rushing stats
Breakdown of the running back room and their route participation
Assessment of the potential for Duke's running backs against Northwestern's run defense
Evaluation of the wide receiver situation and target shares for Duke
Projections on Northwestern's quarterback Mike Wright's passing efficiency
Insight into Northwestern's three-back committee and their route rates
Analysis of SMU's high implied team total and player projections against BYU
Discussion on Preston Stone's value as SMU's quarterback for DFS
Projections and considerations for SMU's running back situation
Analysis of SMU's wide receiver targets and efficiency
Evaluation of BYU's offensive strategy and quarterback Jake Rett's potential
Discussion on Indiana's offensive potential and player projections against Western Illinois
Final thoughts on the Slate, including key players and strategies for DFS
Transcripts
what's up everybody Mesi here back again
with the stochastic Channel and today
we're talking some college football DFS
the Friday slate before we get started
make sure to hit that Thumbs Up Button
subscribe to the channel and hit the
notification Bell it helps us out a ton
so thank you if you have done that all
right I'm GNA adjust my camera a little
bit I'm a little low and right away I'm
going to bring you behind the glass to
what we usually use our player data
usage tool talk about it briefly and
then get into the games so let me switch
off this this is an FCS game but we'll
begin here with Duke Northwestern so
this is available with our college
football package among other things
projections ownership our Sims tool more
on that stuff later but this specific
page what you're looking at week by week
this will update at the top we're going
to have our team by team data everything
highlighted in Grays from last year
that'll change to next or this year
probably next week a lot lot of these
teams played FCS opponents so the data
is not there in some cases and in other
cases highly flawed because of level of
competition so I left that alone for
last year's stuff I'll update when it
makes sense just verbally and then we
have your Vegas data so in this case
Northwestern is a three-point favorite
with a 37 total these are your implied
team totals very low for both of these
teams as far as the player-by-player
stuff quarterbacks are up here at the
top we have their attempts per game
total toal yards yards per game this
will update when there's more games how
many sacks they've taken opportunities
is sacks plus scrambles plus designed
Rush attempts than your yards per carry
you could see Malik Murphy not very
mobile conversely Mike rght he's
honestly more mobile than I I thought
5.91 yards per carry but we'll get into
that from here attempts that's for
running backs receivers quarterbacks
whoever carries the percentage of the
attempts they have they're yards and
yards per game and it's the same thing
with receivers down here only we move to
targets then we have Target share
targets per game yards yards per game
and percentage of routes that a player
participates in this will be a running
average throughout the season I will
update verbally when there are
discrepancies so hopefully that makes
enough sense enough of the background
all of the information for our tools
packages everything can be found below
while we're on this game I might as well
start here we got into some of the
specifics right away with Duke
Northwestern it's a threo spread in
favor of the wild cats 37 total this
number's coming down so probably even
lower by the time it kicks off at the
quarterback position we have Malik
Murphy at 7,300 the fact that he took
zero rushing or has zero rushing yards
and took zero sacks I think is more a
product of what this team did in week
one playing an FCS team that is neither
here nor there last year he found a way
to finish with negative rushing yards so
that was with Taxas better offensive
line better receivers better everything
I think this could be pretty tough
sedding for Malik Murphy and he is no
longer playing Elon which is also a
concern from there we have the running
back room
which in my opinion was a little more
spread than I thought it would be star
Thomas out carried Joz Mo but if you
look at stuff like route percentage jao
Moore played a lot more than star Thomas
I'll highlight that down here 42 2% of
their routes for more versus 27 a. half%
for Thomas so it's kind of like a 5050
committee with designed roles more
handling pass down stuff more than than
star Thomas and star Thomas handling
more of the early down rolls so in a
game against North Western who is an
excellent run defense not expecting that
to be anything worth writing home about
I'm not particularly interested in the
Duke running back situation especially
because you know like week one Duke
passed the ball 60% of the time they
were at 24 seconds per play which is a
Divergence from what we saw last year of
course they have the new coaching staff
but if we're not getting a lot of
rushing attempts from these players and
Northwestern as an awesome
defense I think there's better
opportunities in other situations
they're just gppb plays in my opinion at
receiver Jordan Moore the locked in
receiver of choice this makes sense they
lost his running mate from last year 12
targets immediately 31% Target share
went over 100 yards 72% rout share you
think that rises in more competitive
games then it's Eli panle and Samir
heggins I don't think we see really much
else from this team in terms of rotation
onto the field Javon Harvey John Tavis
Robertson these are players that should
be rotational pieces with Samir hains
Eli panle and Jordan Moore locked in to
your three wide receiver sets and I
think panle should be more expensive
than Heins just straight up at this
point given what we saw last week and
panle has been injured at points in his
career I think that's the only thing
that's limited him from playing ahead of
Hain titand is a rotation Nikki
dlan he was at 47% of the routes
Jeremiah Hasley 47% of the routes four
targets a piece expect this to continue
and when they run 12 personel you'll see
I think panl and Heins come off the
field more Heins than anyone else but
the Duke tight ends I guess are in play
I don't have a ton of interests not with
panle being a little bit more expensive
on the Northwestern side Mike Wright
8100 he had the 65 rushing yards right
away in his debut it's pretty good Mark
and I expect that to be pretty
consistent this team was surprisingly
pass the ball 49% of the time that was
very interesting to see considering
their new OC Lan comes from South Dakota
state where they were often passing the
ball in the 30% range 30 to 40% we did
not have that in their first game but
they were still super slow 31 seconds
per play and this team I think will be
more run heavy in the
future and rely on their defense really
but Mike Wright being a piece of this
run game I think is important because
he's very lackluster as a passer 6.0
yards per attempt for reference the
college average is 7.4 so he's well
below that and he's had a long career
he's been at multiple programs I
wouldn't expect him to light the world
on fire although Duke's defense is
rebuilding quite a bit here the biggest
surprise for me was the three back
committee that Northwestern decided to
use that their coach doubled down on in
the press conference cam Porter led the
way last year and he still carried the
ball 13
times was not involved in the pass game
honestly like they barely threw the ball
they did they just I don't think got off
enough plays but Camp Porter he's firmly
in a time share Caleb komala played more
than we thought and right now I think
we're over projecting this is sports
books over projecting Camp Porto rushing
under projecting Caleb KF even though I
think they should both be involved as
far as route rates for these running
backs because they were not targeted
really at all I think we do see some
rotation between these players but I
would still expect Camp pora to largely
lead the way right now we have Camp
Porter at 42% of the
routes komala around 20 Heyman around
seven and that is just diverging a
little bit from what we saw last week
but pretty in line so that's where we
have them in terms of the past game
Porter are still being mainly the third
down back receiver you know they didn't
throw the ball a lot or they I guess
they're they did throw the ball a fair
amount but a lot of it was off Target
and didn't register as targets
but over 60% of the targets went to AJ
Henning and Bryce Curts that is nice in
the fact that it's projectable so it's
not expensive these players were on the
field every single play their wide
receiver three Frank cvy he had just a
51 and a half% route rate and I don't
think we see much else from this team
passing the ball these are the clearly
the two best receivers there's no reason
to throw it to anybody else at tight end
Thomas Gordon he split time with
Marshall Lang neither of them received
much work in the past game but both of
them were out there for a pretty fair
amount of the routes Gordon he was up
above 70% and we have Lang above 50%
coming into this week which is
appropriate for them just don't expect a
high targets per route rate for the
Northwestern tight ends I would focus
solely on Henning and CTS if you can
unfortunately they're not expensive
they're the top two plays in this game
Wright is okay Porter is okay Kamala I
think is okay as well would rely on
Jordan more as a stud and then Thomas
and jock has more along with Eli panle
more your gpp
plays second good game on the Slate we
turn to BYU taking on SMU this spread is
moving towards 11 it's 10 and a half in
favor of SMU 56 total and it's a game I
think we should have a lot of interest
right away just from the high implied
team total of SMU up above 30 points at
30 points right now
but much better than the previous game
so when you have a 36 and a half total a
37 total sometimes you're just going to
naturally be pushed towards other games
which is the case here but in this
contest we have I think a pretty decent
spot to take SMU as a bu low after their
FCS game and before that playing Nevada
really close let's start with them so
you have Preston Stone still splitting
some time
with Kevin Jennings that's not changing
in this game but I think I think it's
going to be closer to an 8020 split
similar to what we saw in the first week
even though Jennings has been fine at
some point I think they just had to name
a starting quarterback the problem is
you pay 9500 for it there's not that
many options on this late so I think you
probably still look towards Preston
Stone as a guy you can lock in pretty
clearly I haven't built lineups yet I'm
not sure where I'll be on cash but I
anticipate playing probably r from
Indiana and then I'm not sure on the
second quarterback it largely depend on
how salaries fall but not noticing that
many expensive skill position players so
Stone might just be the guy you lock in
to get the most points running back
their second game you know playing an
FCS team they took the foot off the gas
with Rashard Smith and LJ Johnson like
their freshman Derrik McFall had 15
carries those all came in the second
half when the game was already out of
hand same thing with Zack Hernandez all
those carries in the second half Zay
miners actually touched the ball earlier
in the game but still only two and they
didn't have Jaylen knon so his absence
definitely contributed to the elevated
McFall workload right now we're
projecting brashard Smith clearly the
number one he's been hyper efficient too
on his carrier he's already at 89 and a
half yards he's also a former receiver
so he's excellent catching the ball
three Targets in their first game didn't
need him in their second game he should
be the lead back LJ Johnson is dealing
with an injury we're expecting him to
play but but he's their bigger back he
should get some goal line touches here
and there we're tentatively projecting
him as the number two right now followed
by Jaylen Knight assuming he returns
from his
injury all this should set up pretty
well for brashard Smith you got your
next two backs dealing with injuries so
make sure you keep your eye on this
McFall we are projecting back towards
his week one roll a handful of snaps
even if he gets if he even gets that
he's a four-star freshman so there's the
potential for more especially if one of
Johnson or Knight misses but those
carries just came in garbage time
annihilating an FCS team so I still have
questions receiving game RJ Maryland
goes from nine targets to two again they
did not play a real team that's going to
happen he should be faring away the
locked in Target Target leader and he
hasn't played most of the routes yet the
series at 57% but last year in
competitive games we saw that up at 80
so if this does play to the spread I
would expect a bump in routes and
targets from RJ Maryland he's your
safest pass Catcher from there you have
Jake Bailey and Jordan
Hudson I always struggle with the
expensive SMU wide receivers because
their routes are not vastly different
than romelo Brinson rodri Daniels kesan
Smith I honestly would prefer going down
and playing those guys just price
adjusted of course if you give me all
the salary in the world sure I'll play
Jordan Hudson but if salary is a thing
which it is on the Slate there's not
much difference other than efficiency
between those players romela Brinson
keesan Smith and Roger Daniels in honest
you could make a case for Daniels being
the best of these cheap players because
he gets carries in the backfield three
carries last week has zero carries in
week zero but we saw him involved in the
Run game last year as well so those
carries do give you a floor that the
other receivers do not have 4600 aside
from Maryland I would tentatively put my
flag on him if you're looking to stack
an SMU receiver only other guy that
really mentions Matthew hibner he plays
a little bit as your second tight endend
BYU we go to Jake rettl and BYU is fresh
off a dismantling win in their first
game of the year over Southern Illinois
congrats to BYU but I don't think we saw
a lot from this team they returned their
signal caller Jake
redl and I'm not sure that's a good
thing he was inefficient last year good
showing in week one he's cheap so locked
into all the snaps I think you can play
some Rett
left I'm still hesitant this is probably
you know poor judgment on my end I have
the first run of projections done I'm
going to cross reference this with red
SLA right now just to see what we have
and if I'm being a dummy which is likely
the
case we have red slap at 17 and a half
points roughly so yeah you should
probably be considering him as a cheaper
option we'll see I'm not all the way
there yet I like smu's defense even
though they showed cracks previously
against other teams but this should be
mostly red SLA not buying banan or
anyone behind him the backfield I think
the superior committee LJ Martin split
with hinley rotti Miles Davis carried a
little bit and then of course this team
uses wide receivers a lot in the Run
game so that's worth noting but I think
largely what you see is hinley Rapa LG
Martin splitting work almost 5050 that
was what we saw last week Martin did
have a camp injury so that could be
contributing but he wasn't the most
efficient back anyway so I would expect
a 50-50 committee to remain would much
get to a guy like brashard
Smith receiver only thing to really
mention is Darius lasser's expected back
I guess I forgot to mention musi Dixon's
also expected a return for SMU that
muddies the situation further but that
could happen here with BYU they already
rotated receivers a lot last year the
only time they condensed was due to
injuries you have Chase Roberts Cody EPS
Keen Marian as your top guys Darius ler
should slide in ideally over kelen Maran
but I still doubt we see many of these
receivers
north of 75% of routes and if they do
it's probably not much so I would
tentatively expect the wide receivers to
go Roberts one ler 2 EPS three Keanu
Hill is moving positions he's playing
tight end now but he still lines up wide
a lot I would put him four tentatively
followed by kelen Maran and Parker
Kingston no interest in anyone listed
below those players so it's a weird game
I think brashard Smith is your most in
play it's him and RJ Maryland from their
looking at a BYU receiver and I'm still
debating redl but I think he's going to
project pretty well price adjusted as
well as Stone on the other side just
from raw
points last game is Western Illinois
Indiana this spread is not out so I used
S&P plus 42 point spread they project
with a 48 total that gives Western
Illinois a three-point implied team
total Indiana a 45 implied team total
you're never really Xing teams but that
is somewhat debatable on this slate with
Western Illinois as far as the team goes
this team is looking at about a 50% pass
right there a slow offense we even
projected for 60 plays exactly that
might be rich it's just a low-level team
Nathan lamb is the QB he looks like he
rushes the ball a little bit but I think
you're probably making up for that with
sacks especially against really good
teams Indiana being a much better team
than Western Illinois backfield was a
complete committee we saw three backs
involved between Cameron Smith torren
farmer and Tyler Jordan Smith handled by
far most of the work and he's not
expensive he actually comes into the
stone Min tempting enough to consider
here but I'm not sure I'll be able to
pull the trigger we saw him with 15
opportunities in their week one games
just you're going to deal with zero
efficiency with that said if you need a
cheap guy Stoneman he looks to be the
one at wide receiver Tristan Duncan and
Christian annah 84% of the routes and
100% of the routes 10 and six targets
those are the guys you want to look at
no one else was above 61% of the routes
that was Elijah Aragon a wide receiver
he split time with deari Davis among
others so not too much there this team
does use four wide a fair amount they do
not use a tight end on every single play
so that's worth noting you could get
some extra really cheap receivers that
maybe pop up for a big play here and
there but I'm not super enticed by it
last Curtis roor I think he's the safest
quarterback on the Slate went for 180
yards just 25 attempts in their week one
game they didn't need him to do anything
else they also did not need him to run
he only rushed three
times but this is a guy I think you can
use in the Run game a fair amount if you
need to he does have a season ending
injury on his pass so that's worth
noting but I mean as long as he doesn't
get benched early and even if he does he
probably does enough along the way here
I think he's your safest quarterback
option in this late given their enormous
team total at running back kin black got
hurt immediately in their last game with
a hamstring injury they took him out
precautionary it was rumored to be but
you never know maybe they hold him out
just because of the opponent here when
he was out Tyson lton came in handled
most of the work Justice Ellison was his
change of pace Elijah green only carried
the ball when they were wasting away the
game so I would not play Elijah green
unless you think they're going to do
that again which is possible I suppose
and if kayn black returns I don't think
Elijah green is very involved the
receiving room we did see a little bit
of weirdness Donovan McCully was banged
up they didn't have EJ Williams still so
there's still some questions with the
Indiana pass catchers in some moving
Parts I wouldn't be surprised if they
held out McCully or EJ Williams just
because of the opponent with that they
had Omar Cooper miles price and Elijah
Sarat as the three receivers looking at
a very strong bounceback game for satat
only three targets but he led the team
in routes Cooper and price I think are
just fine and Horton is a tight end that
played on 65% of the routes just about
63% not much rotation there he would be
the other guy look at if McCully returns
I think he probably plays a larger role
but that remains to be seen and that
about does it for the Slate again I
think the receivers are pretty clear
looking at Jordan Moore for Duke RJ
Maryland for
SMU probably one of the studs for BYU or
getting to a Northwestern G I think
Curts and Henning are fine at running
back it's a fairly weak position but
Cameron Smith if you need a in price guy
makes some sense otherwise I'll be
playing a lot of brashard Smith again
and then at quarterback roor is I think
the safest Preston Stone redl and Mike
right to be guys we consider in the spot
as well that'll do it for the Slate
thank you guys for watching much
appreciated hit the thumbs up button on
the way out and we will see you guys
tomorrow for the main slate until then
good luck and have a good one
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