The Celsius FIASCO...Explained Simply
Summary
TLDRDas Skript analysiert die Aktienentwicklung von Celsius Holdings, einem Unternehmen, das Energiegetränke herstellt. Es wird erklärt, wie das Unternehmen durch eine Partnerschaft mit Pepsi und dessen Investition von 550 Millionen Dollar an Wert gewonnen hat. Trotz des anfänglichen Anstiegen ist der Aktienkurs in den letzten Monaten um fast 70% gesunken. Der Hauptgrund für diese Entwicklung ist eine Überbestellung von Produkten durch Pepsi, was zu einem Rückgang der Umsatzwachstumsrate führte. Der Sprecher, Brian Stoeckl, diskutiert die aktuelle Situation und die möglichen Auswirkungen auf die Unternehmensbewertung, während er auch seine eigene Positionierung im Portfolio erwähnt.
Takeaways
- 📈 Celsius Energy Drink ist beliebt, besonders unter jüngeren Leuten und Fitnessbegeisterten, was zu einer starken Aktienperformance in den letzten Jahren geführt hat.
- 📉 In den letzten vier bis fünf Monaten sind die Aktien von Celsius um fast 70% gesunken.
- 🤝 Im August 2022 investierte Pepsi mit 550 Millionen Dollar in Celsius und wurde der Hauptdistributor für das Getränk.
- 📊 Die Verkäufe von Celsius waren stark von den Vertriebskanälen wie Pepsi, Costco und Amazon abhängig.
- 🚀 Die Wachstumsrate von Celsius ging von 136% ohne Pepsi-Hilfe auf 95% nach der Vereinbarung mit Pepsi zurück.
- 🔍 Die aktuelle Abnahme der Aktienpreise könnte auf eine Kombination aus Marktbedingungen und der Verzögerung bei der Neuausrichtung der Regale durch Pepsi zurückzuführen sein.
- 📉 Der Rückgang der Aktien könnte auch auf eine vorübergehende Überbestellung von Pepsi und eine Verlangsamung des Wachstums im Energiegetränkemarkt hindeuten.
- 🔄 Trotz des Rückgangs der Aktienpreise wächst die Endverbrauchernachfrage nach Celsius weiterhin, was durch Scannerdaten bestätigt wird.
- 💹 Die Bewertung von Celsius könnte attraktiv sein, wenn man die Wachstumsraten und potenziellen Kostensenkungen berücksichtigt.
- 🔮 Analysten erwarten, dass das Unternehmen in den kommenden Jahren eine Wachstumsrate von 8-15% erzielen kann, was die Aktienpreise unterstützen könnte.
Q & A
Was ist Celsius Energy Drink und warum ist es beliebt?
-Celsius Energy Drink ist ein Getränk, das bei Fitness-Begeisterten und jüngeren Menschen sehr beliebt ist. Es ist bekannt geworden, weil es in den letzten Jahren einen starken Marktanteil gewonnen hat.
Warum ist der Aktienkurs von Celsius Holdings in den letzten vier bis fünf Monaten um fast 70% gesunken?
-Der Aktienkurs von Celsius Holdings ist gesunken, weil die Wachstumsrate der Verkäufe zurückgegangen ist und auch weil Pepsi, der Hauptverteiler, weniger Bestellungen aufgegeben hat, was auf eine Überlagerung von Vorräten und Verzögerungen bei der Regulierung des Regalplatzes hindeutet.
Was bedeuten die Abkommen zwischen Celsius und Pepsi für die Verkäufe von Celsius?
-Das Abkommen ermöglichte Celsius, seinen Marktanteil zu erhöhen, indem Pepsi die Verteilung übernimmt und wichtige Verkaufskanäle für das Getränk bereitstellt. Dies hat zu einem Anstieg des Aktienkurses geführt.
Wie wichtig sind Verkäufe über Pepsi, Costco und Amazon für Celsius?
-Pepsi, Costco und Amazon sind wichtige Verkäufskanäle für Celsius. 2021 machten Verkäufe über Pepsi 60% des Umsatzes aus, Costco 12% und Amazon 7%.
Was ist die Rolle von Pepsi als Verteiler für Celsius?
-Als Verteiler übernimmt Pepsi die Verantwortung für die Logistik und den Verkauf von Celsius-Produkten in verschiedenen Verkaufsstellen, was für den Erfolg von Celsius entscheidend ist.
Warum ist die Wachstumsrate von Celsius in den letzten Quartalen zurückgegangen?
-Die Wachstumsrate von Celsius ist zurückgegangen, weil der Energiegetränkemarkt insgesamt langsamer wächst und auch weil Pepsi Verzögerungen bei der Regulierung des Regalplatzes hatte.
Wie viel muss das jährliche Umsatzwachstum von Celsius sein, um den aktuellen Aktienkurs zu rechtfertigen?
-Um den aktuellen Aktienkurs zu rechtfertigen, muss das Umsatzwachstum von Celsius in den nächsten 10 Jahren etwa 8 bis 9% betragen, vorausgesetzt, die Unternehmen erreichen 24% freie Cash-Flow-Marge.
Was ist die Meinung des Sprechers über die aktuelle Position von Celsius in seinem Portfolio?
-Der Sprecher hält eine 3%ige Position in Celsius für angemessen, da er auf Zeichen von Stärke wartet, bevor er seine Position erhöht, obwohl die Bewertung attraktiv erscheint und die Probleme mit dem Vorrat möglicherweise die tatsächliche Nachfrage maskieren.
Was ist Stock Investing Mentor und wie kann man beitreten?
-Stock Investing Mentor ist ein neues Service, bei dem der Sprecher wöchentlich Live-Trainings durchführt und in Echtzeit sein Portfolio teilt. Man kann beitreten, indem man auf den Link in der Videobeschreibung klickt.
Was wird der Sprecher in Bezug auf seine Position in Celsius unternehmen, wenn die Unternehmensgewinne am Ende des Quartals veröffentlicht werden?
-Der Sprecher wird seine Position in Celsius beobachten und auf Zeichen von Stärke achten, um zu entscheiden, ob er seine Position erhöht oder nicht.
Outlines
📈 Celsius Energiegetränk Aktienanalyse
Der erste Absatz stellt das Celsius Energiegetränk vor und diskutiert dessen Popularität sowie den Aktienkursverlauf. Der Aktienkurs von Celsius ist in den letzten Jahren stark gestiegen, aber in den letzten vier bis fünf Monaten um fast 70% gesunken. Der Sprecher, Brian Stoel, gibt an, dass er eine kleine Position in Celsius Holdings hält und das Unternehmen mit Pepsi eine Vereinbarung eingegangen ist, bei der Pepsi 550 Millionen Dollar in das Unternehmen investierte und einen Vertriebsvertrag abgeschlossen hat. Dieser Vertrag war bedeutend, da Pepsi großes Regalflächenpotenzial hat, was für den Verkauf von Celsius-Produkten in verschiedenen Geschäften wichtig ist. Der Aktienkurs reagierte positiv auf diese Nachricht, ist jedoch wieder auf das Niveau gefallen, als die Vereinbarung getroffen wurde.
📊 Wachstumsraten und Vertriebsprobleme bei Celsius
Der zweite Absatz konzentriert sich auf die Wachstumsraten von Celsius und die Bedeutung von Pepsi als Vertriebspartner. Es wird erklärt, dass 60% des Verkaufs 2022 über Pepsi abgewickelt wurden, während Amazon und Costco weiterhin wichtige Vertriebskanäle darstellen. Die Wachstumsraten des Unternehmens haben nach einer starken Phase vor der Pepsi-Vereinbarung nachgelassen, was auf eine Verlangsamung des Marktes für Energiegetränke hindeutet. Ein zusätzliches Problem ist, dass Pepsi bei der Neugestaltung des Regalplatzes in den Verkaufsstellen hinter dem Zeitplan lag, was die Verkäufe beeinträchtigte. Die Managementanalyse deutet darauf hin, dass Pepsi weniger von Celsius bestellt hat, was auf eine Überbestellung von Pepsi zurückzuführen ist und nicht auf ein Rückgang der Nachfrage nach Celsius-Produkten.
💹 Bewertung und zukünftige Prognosen für Celsius
Der dritte Absatz behandelt die Bewertung von Celsius und die zukünftigen Prognosen für das Unternehmen. Es wird eine umgekehrte diskontierte Cashflow-Analyse durchgeführt, um die notwendige Wachstumsrate zu ermitteln, die das Unternehmen in den nächsten zehn Jahren erbringen muss, um den aktuellen Aktienkurs zu rechtfertigen. Es wird argumentiert, dass die Wachstumsraten, die im Video erwähnt werden, künstlich hoch eingestuft wurden, da Pepsi zu viel Lager bestellt hat. Die tatsächliche Nachfrage nach Celsius-Produkten ist weiterhin positiv, aber die zukünftigen Wachstumsraten werden wahrscheinlich niedriger ausfallen als in der Vergangenheit. Der Sprecher plant, seine Position in Celsius zu beobachten und aufzeichnen, ob das Unternehmen die erwarteten Cashflow-Marge-Ziele erreichen kann.
🔍 Persönliche Ansichten und Community-Einladung
Der vierte Absatz ist eine persönliche Reflexion des Sprechers über seine Ansichten zu Celsius und Pepsi. Er fordert das Publikum auf, ihre Meinungen in den Kommentaren zu teilen und stellt sein eigenes Portfolio in Bezug auf Celsius vor. Er erwähnt auch die Dienstleistung 'Stock Investing Mentor', die er kürzlich lanciert hat, und bietet einen Rabatt für Neumitglieder an. Der Sprecher plant, seine Position in Celsius beizubehalten und aufzeichnen, ob das Unternehmen die erwarteten Cashflow-Marge-Ziele erreichen kann, und hält sich für die Zukunft offen, um seine Position zu erhöhen, sollte dies angezeigt erscheinen.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Celsius Energy Drink
💡Aktienperformance
💡Pepsi
💡Verkaufskanalä
💡Wachstumsrate
💡Umsatz
💡Lagerbestände
💡Energietrankmarkt
💡Bewertung
💡FinChat
Highlights
Celsius energy drink's popularity has surged, especially among gym-goers and younger crowds.
Celsius stock experienced a significant increase in value but has recently dropped by almost 70% over four to five months.
Investor Brian Stoel has a small position in Celsius Holdings and discusses the stock's performance.
Fin chat is introduced as a tool for analyzing financial data and trends.
Celsius' market share growth is discussed, highlighting the impact of an agreement with Pepsi in August 2022.
Pepsi's investment of $550 million in Celsius and the strategic distribution partnership are detailed.
The importance of Costco, Pepsi, and Amazon as sales channels for Celsius is analyzed.
A significant shift in sales from other channels to Pepsi is observed, with 60% of sales going through Pepsi.
The company's growth rate is examined, showing a deceleration in sales growth despite the Pepsi partnership.
The dynamics of the distribution agreement between Celsius and Pepsi are explained, including the impact on inventory and sales.
The energy drink market's slowdown and its effect on Celsius' growth are discussed.
Pepsi's delay in shelf space resets and its potential impact on Celsius sales are highlighted.
Management's recent statement about Pepsi ordering less Celsius product is analyzed.
Scanner data indicates that Celsius is still growing in sales to end users, despite the stock's decline.
A reverse discounted cash flow analysis is conducted to evaluate Celsius' valuation and future growth potential.
Estimates suggest that Celsius' revenue growth needs to be around 8-9% per year to justify the current stock price.
Brian Stoel discusses his personal investment strategy regarding Celsius, including his current holdings and future considerations.
Stock Investing Mentor, a new service by Brian Stoel, is introduced, offering live training sessions and a private investing community.
The video concludes with a call to action for viewers to join Stock Investing Mentor and subscribe for updates on Celsius' earnings.
Transcripts
you familiar with this drink right here
it's a Celsius energy drink and
especially if you go to the gym a lot or
maybe are with a younger crew you might
see this energy drink a lot because it's
gotten very popular and that's been
really good for shareholders stock was
up enormously over the past couple of
years but over the last four to five
months Shares are down almost 70% and
yesterday that Fiasco continued with
shares trading down as you can see by 11
to 12% that's a huge drop so what does
this mean what's going on because I
think that the devil's in the details
here and some people if they don't
really know about it might be getting
this story a little bit wrong my name is
Brian stoel as of the time of this
recording I do have about a small
position in Celsius Holdings and I want
to give a shout out to today's sponsor
which is fin
chat. thanks to them for sponsoring
today's video and we're going to start
out by going right over to fin chat so
that we can back up and look at this
story from 30,000 ft so I head on over
to Fin chat. and what I want to do is
I'm going to go to the overview right
here and what I'm most interested in is
just kind of telling the story of how we
got to where we are so this right here
shows Celsius stock over the past five
years now what's important to not is
that the company was gaining market
share and then right about here which is
August of 2022 Celsius made an agreement
they made an agreement with Pepsi
Pepsi invested $550 million into Celsius
in other words Celsius issued shares
which is about equal to eight and a
half% of their shares outstanding Pepsi
took a stake they had skin in the game
and they also said well we want to see
our investment to well so Pepsi's
deciding what we're going to do is is
we're going to become your distributor
which is really important because if you
want to get into all the grocery stores
and all the different places where
people can buy Celsius well you got to
have a distributor that has shelf space
in those locations and guess what Pepsi
has shelf space in those locations so
this agreement was a really big deal and
as you can see the stock did really well
for a while but it has fallen pretty
much back to where it was back when that
deal was reached so what's going on well
to understand the Dynamics of this we
have to see how important is Pepsi to
what's going on for Celsius this is one
of the neat things about
fin chat. uh they've got a whole bunch
of different things here but my favorite
is the segments and kpis and what I'm
going to pull up here is I want to show
how important
Costco Pepsi and Amazon R in terms of
sales channels for what's going on at
this company and I'll stack these and I
can show you what I mean here so if we
go back to 2020 what I'm showing you
here here is that 82% of the sales in
2020 that the company had fell outside
of this 15% of the sales were via Amazon
3% were via Costco and we see things
changing here by
20122 then 22% was actually from this
Pepsi decision that was just made Costco
and Amazon were still important and all
the other sales channels were there but
as of last year look at what happened
60% of the sales went via
Pepsi and 12% went via Costco 7% went
via Amazon 21% from other and that's
really important now why is that so
important well it's important to
understand because we also have to look
at how fast this company has been
growing so if I go to income statements
and I pull this up what you can see here
is the growth rate and if let's let's
changes so that we look at this on a
quarterly basis so what I can do right
here is just change this to quarterly
and you can get an idea for what I'm
talking about so right here is where
Pepsi decided to make their agreement
with Celsius when sales were growing
136% without Pepsi at all and we see
that they were slowing down and then
they re accelerated and continued
doubling until this most recent quarter
where sales growth went from 95% all the
way down to 37% down to
23% and so people might be wondering
what's going on looks like they really
hit a wall well for this it's really
important to understand how this
agreement between Celsius and Pepsi
works so here's how it works because not
every distributor agreement works this
way let's pretend Celsius is over here
Pepsi's in the middle and over here we
have our consumers the people who
actually buy the Celsius so Celsius is
over here and I've got myself let's call
this equivalent to three million units
of Celsius that's just a number I'm
pulling out of my head but let's just
say they've got three million
Celsius uh units sitting in a warehouse
owned by Celsius and Pepsi comes along
and said okay we're going to distribute
all of your stuff and here's the deal
when we take this off your hands when we
load this Celsius onto a Pepsi truck
we're gonna buy it we're going to take
ownership over it now in some
distribution agreements that's not what
happens the distributor might take it to
all the different places but Celsius
still owns it Pepsi is just the one
who's who's doing them a favor of doing
this but here Pepsi is paying for it
right up front and then they have to
decide well how much do we want well
here's the thing if you remember when
Pepsi made this agreement Celsius was
growing at about
137% without Pepsi's help at all and so
Pepsi has to sit back and say well how
much Celsius do we want um do we want
just one unit well if we just take one
unit of this well then maybe we'll run
out the last thing we want to do is run
out because we own 88.5% of this company
now we would rather have too much than
run out so maybe The Prudent thing to do
would have or be to order two units so
we'll order two units but we really
don't want to run out and it's growing
100 36% so we're going to order three
units so now all three units are sitting
with
Pepsi right they're all sitting with
Pepsi and they paid for
them well two things happen now because
then they've got to go from Pepsi to the
End customer via a retail location two
things happen the first thing is is that
the energy drink since then has slowed
its growth considerably that's not
Celsius is fault it's not Monster's
fault it's not Red Bull's fault there's
been some pressure on consumers and the
energy drink Market is is still growing
but it's not growing as fast as it used
to be and so that demand that if Pepsi
could go back and do it again they might
say well instead of three units I wish I
would have just bought two but I already
bought three it's already sitting in my
warehouse I've already paid Celsius for
it well the other thing that happened
was that Pepsi had to reorder their
shelf space within all of their
thousands and thousands of locations
where where they distribute Goods to
give Celsius some Prime real estate so
for instance in my local Metro Market
that I go to before 2022 there's a
certain area I could go to and get my
Celsius it was out of the way it wasn't
Prime real estate but I would have one a
week before my long run that I had and I
knew where to go to get it well over the
past six months until very recently I
haven't known where to go to get it
because here's what happened Pepsi kind
of fell behind on what's called a shelf
space reset
well if you fall behind on that reset
and there's no Prime real estate for
Celsius then you're not going to have
sales that are fast anyway so you've got
two things going on now the energy drink
Market is
slowing and Pepsi was late in these
shelf space resets so getting them to go
from Pepsi to the end consumer is taking
longer than they
thought but they've already paid for it
it's just sitting in their warehouse and
so what happened is is at a conference
yesterday management said hey look
Pepsi's not ordering as much for us
which makes sense because if you've got
all these drinks sitting in your
Warehouse they're like all right now
we've got a handle on how much uh Pepsi
is being move or sorry how much Celsius
is being moved here we're already full
in our warehouse we don't need that much
more part of it is macro in nature part
of it is Pepsi took a long time for
their shelf space resets part of it
could be Celsius losing popularity
there's a lot of factors at play here
but in the most recent conference
management said hey Pepsi's ordering
less from us and a lot of people are out
there saying Celsius is selling less now
based on the information that we have
available to us that's not true there's
scanner data scanner data just means
when when retail locations scan
different things there's a group that
keeps track of all right well how much
Celsius is being scan and what they've
noticed is is that Celsius there's still
10% more Celsius being scanned to Final
End users so it's still growing and
that's important because the energy
drink Market is growing much less than
10% based on our best available
resources so let's think about that
Celsius is revenue isn't actually going
to affect how much sales of Celsius to
end customers like myself over here is
happening why because when it goes from
Celsius to Pepsi that's when 60% of the
revenue is being counted it's not being
counted when it goes from Pepsi to
somewhere else so what does this all
mean well I would argue that one thing
it means is if we look at these growth
rates we now know that this was
artificially inflated nobody's fault
certainly not celsi's fault but Pepsi
overstocked the inventory so these 90 to
111% growth rates they were too high
they didn't reflect there weren't twice
as many people drinking Celsius bottles
during this time as opposed to the same
time last year in all likelihood it was
somewhere lower but what we're also
likely going to see is that right here
that growth moving forward will probably
be lower it might be in the T
to might it's hard to say where it's
going to be but wherever it comes in it
will probably be lower and not reflect
how much more Celsius is being consumed
by end users at that point in time and
then we have to look at the company's
valuation because the stock has fallen
so much so to do that we can do a
reverse discounted cash flow analysis
and here's what we see we put in our
ticker symbol Celsius we see we give it
a normal terminal growth rate a normal
discount rate and we want to put in the
free cash flow now free cash flow right
now their margins are about 16% % but if
they can optimize free cash flow margins
I would say 24% free cash flow margin is
very reasonable if they accomplish that
they would have $358 million in free
cash flow that's not what they have but
we're optimizing for it and here's why
because once we do that then we get an
idea for well how much does revenue need
to grow every year over the next 10
years to justify the stock price and so
we do that and what we see is that it
only needs to grow about eight or 9% so
Revenue only needs to grow about 9% per
year over the next 10 years to justify
the stock price if the company can reach
those 24% free cash flow margins if they
don't and we just use today's free cash
flow what we see is that free cash flow
needs to grow at about 15% well how fast
do different people think it'll be
growing moving forward well we can look
at that right here on finat and what we
see is their estimates that they now
believe that Revenue will contract in
the current quarter but remember the
reason for that isn't that there's 3%
less people drinking Celsius it's that
Pepsi ordered a whole bunch more and
it's it's evening out what happened here
but they see it growing 11 then 18 and
working its way up again moving forward
so that be whether it's a an 8% growth
rate or a 15% growth rate well that
looks pretty reasonable moving forward
so what am I going to be doing in my own
portfolio well before I tell you what
I'm going to be doing I want to tell you
about Stock Investing Mentor a new
service that I just launched this past
week and the way that this service works
is that every week there's one hour of
live training sessions where I take one
nugget that I've learned about investing
and I teach a session on it and then we
have live Q&A after that every week
Thursday noon Eastern and it's recorded
Ed if you can't make it you also get
full access to my portfolio all of my
Holdings but also real-time alerts when
I buy sell trim or add a position and
finally a private online investing
Community now this just launched a week
ago and so far the number of people
who've registered is quadruple the
internal goal that we set for ourselves
so this has been very popular and so
we're only the the best discount we have
left is a 10% discount and that discount
expires Friday September 6th at midnight
or 11:59 Eastern if you want to join
that click the second link in the show
notes below you can also click the one
below that to check out Stock Investing
Mentor a little bit more but what am I
going to be doing well what I'm going to
be doing is I'm going to just be
watching Celsius a 3% position is
comfortable for me now you might think
well based on all this you should
probably be adding to it I mean you just
explained why the inventory issues are
kind of masking what's going on how the
valuation is very compelling and all of
that is true but at the same point in
time we cannot lose track of the fact
that if the energy drink Market is
Contracting and that's not Celsius is
fault at all and if we were to head into
tough Economic Times which is not
Celsius is fault at all well then these
estimates for growth right here will
come down and so 3% position is what I'm
comfortable with for right now but
moving forward I am looking for any sign
of strength and looking for that as a
time to add to my position well what do
you think about Celsius and where it is
what's going on with Pepsi what do you
think is the most likely explanation for
why the stock is down so much share your
thoughts in the comments section below
because there's a lot of unknowns here
as well and if you want to keep up to
date on what I'm doing with my position
don't forget to click on the link for
Stock Investing mentor and don't forget
to subscribe for an update when the
company does report their earnings at
the end of the quarter until then Brian
out
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