【全程硬核】ETF投資全攻略|THE ULTIMATE GUIDE TO INVEST IN ETF

LEI
28 Jul 202317:27

Summary

TLDRThis transcript delves into the world of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), explaining their nature as baskets of assets tradable on stock exchanges. It highlights the diversity of ETFs, from tech-focused funds like XLK to those holding gold like GLD. The speaker shares their experience with brokerages and emphasizes the importance of understanding one's risk tolerance and investment goals. They introduce ETFdb.com (now VettaFi) as a comprehensive resource for ETF research and ETF Research Center for analyzing fund overlap. The discussion also touches on the significance of diversification, correlation, and dividend reinvestment plans (DRIP), providing a comprehensive guide for potential ETF investors.

Takeaways

  • 📈 ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is a type of fund that can be traded like a stock on an exchange, representing a basket of various assets such as stocks, bonds, or commodities.
  • 🔍 ETFs offer a convenient way to diversify investments and gain exposure to different markets or sectors without buying individual securities.
  • 🌐 Investing in ETFs requires an investment account, and it's important to consider factors like reputation, fees, and tax implications when choosing a broker.
  • 🌟 The US stock market is the largest and most liquid, making it an attractive place to invest in ETFs, with over 2900 ETFs available.
  • 🎯 To choose suitable ETFs, investors should consider their risk tolerance, investment goals, and desired outcomes such as income generation or capital growth.
  • 🔍 ETFdb.com (now VettaFi) is a comprehensive and free tool for researching ETFs, offering detailed databases and investment tools.
  • 📊 Analyzing ETFs involves understanding their investment style, holdings, performance, and fees, which can be crucial for making informed investment decisions.
  • 🔄 Fund Flow data reflects investor sentiment and demand for an ETF, which can be an important indicator of market trends.
  • 🔗 Fund Overlap is a critical concept to avoid when diversifying investments; overlapping ETFs can lead to concentrated risk rather than true diversification.
  • 🔗 Investment portfolio correlation is important for managing risk and achieving a balanced investment strategy; understanding the relationship between different assets is key.
  • 💰 Dividend Reinvestment Plans (DRIPs) allow for tax-efficient reinvestment of dividends, potentially leading to compounding returns over time.

Q & A

  • What is an ETF and how does it differ from other types of funds?

    -An ETF, or Exchange-Traded Fund, is a type of investment fund and exchange-traded product that holds a collection of assets, such as stocks, bonds, or commodities. Unlike mutual funds, ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, similar to individual stocks, allowing for intraday trading and typically lower fees.

  • What are some examples of ETFs mentioned in the transcript?

    -Examples include XLK, which holds many famous tech companies; TLT, which holds long-term U.S. Treasury bonds; and GLD, which holds physical gold.

  • Why is it important to consider the investment strategy of an ETF before investing?

    -Understanding the ETF's investment strategy is crucial because it determines the fund's performance, risk profile, and suitability for an investor's portfolio. Different ETFs may focus on various market segments, investment styles, or themes, and aligning with an investor's goals and risk tolerance is key.

  • How can an investor find suitable ETFs for their portfolio?

    -Investors can use tools like ETF Database (ETFdb.com) and ETF Research Center (ETFrc.com) to search for ETFs based on criteria such as asset class, sector, dividend yield, and investment style. These tools provide comprehensive databases and analysis features to help investors make informed decisions.

  • What is the significance of fund overlap in an ETF portfolio?

    -Fund overlap occurs when different ETFs in a portfolio hold the same stocks, which can lead to a lack of diversification and increased risk. High overlap can result in the portfolio's performance being overly dependent on a few stocks, potentially leading to greater volatility and reducing the benefits of diversification.

  • How does the concept of investment portfolio correlation apply to ETFs?

    -Investment portfolio correlation refers to the degree to which the prices of different ETFs in a portfolio move together. A well-diversified portfolio should have a mix of positively and negatively correlated assets to balance risk and return, aiming for a smoother growth curve rather than dramatic fluctuations.

  • What is a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) and how does it benefit ETF investors?

    -A DRIP is a program that allows investors to automatically reinvest their ETF dividends to purchase additional shares without incurring taxes or transaction fees. This can lead to compounding returns over time, enhancing the overall growth of the investment.

  • What are the two main types of ETF weighting methods mentioned in the transcript?

    -The two main ETF weighting methods are market-cap weighting, where larger companies have a greater influence on the ETF's performance, and equal-weighting, which gives each component an equal share of the portfolio, aiming for a more balanced exposure across the market.

  • Why is it important to consider the historical performance of an ETF?

    -Historical performance provides insight into an ETF's past behavior and can help investors understand its potential future performance. While past performance does not guarantee future results, it can offer valuable information about the ETF's volatility, consistency, and how it has reacted to different market conditions.

  • What is the Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio and how does it relate to ETF investing?

    -Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio is a diversified investment strategy designed to perform well across various economic conditions. It includes a mix of asset classes like stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities, with the goal of reducing risk and providing a smoother return profile. ETFs can be used to implement this strategy by representing the different asset classes.

  • How can an investor avoid over-concentration in a few stocks when investing in ETFs?

    -Investors can avoid over-concentration by researching the ETF's holdings and ensuring that the ETFs in their portfolio have a diverse mix of stocks and sectors. Tools like ETF Research Center can help identify fund overlap and suggest alternative ETFs to maintain a balanced and diversified portfolio.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Introduction to ETFs and Investment Accounts

This paragraph introduces ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) as a type of fund that can be traded on stock exchanges, similar to stocks. It explains that ETFs are a basket of various assets like stocks, bonds, or commodities. The speaker mentions different types of funds, including mutual funds, money market funds, and private funds, and highlights the unique trading flexibility of ETFs. The importance of having a good brokerage account for investing in US ETFs is emphasized, with a personal preference for Interactive Brokers due to its global access. The speaker also mentions other Canadian investment accounts and the benefits of investing in the US stock market, which has over 2900 ETFs. The paragraph ends with a promise to provide a detailed ETF investment list later in the video.

05:01

🔍 Analyzing ETFs and Tools for Investment

The speaker discusses how to analyze ETFs, starting with understanding the ETF's investment style, holdings, and performance. The importance of分红 (dividends) and valuation metrics like PE Ratio and dividend yield are mentioned. The paragraph also covers the concept of Fund Flow, which reflects investor sentiment and demand for an ETF. The speaker demonstrates how to use the ETF Database (ETFdb.com) to find and analyze ETFs, including their dividend rates, industry focus, and aggressive growth options. The paragraph concludes with a mention of another tool, ETF Research Center (ETFrc.com), which helps in identifying fund overlap and finding stocks that overlap between different ETFs.

10:01

📊 ETF Investment Strategies and Portfolio Diversification

This paragraph delves into the importance of understanding the investment strategy behind each ETF and the concept of portfolio correlation. It explains how diversifying investments can lead to a smoother return curve and reduce volatility. The speaker introduces the idea of an all-weather portfolio, as proposed by Ray Dalio, which includes a mix of assets with low correlation. The paragraph also touches on the benefits of dividend reinvestment plans (DRIP) and the different weighting methods used in ETFs, such as market-cap weighting and equal weighting. The speaker shares a list of ETFs categorized by asset classes, structured ETFs, and industry-specific ETFs, which can be used for investment purposes or to gain a comprehensive view of the global market.

15:03

🌐 Global Market Overview with ETFs

The final paragraph provides a detailed list of ETFs categorized into three tables: asset class ETFs, structured ETFs, and industry-specific ETFs. It explains the purpose of each category and how they can be used for investment diversification. The first table includes equity and real estate ETFs, the second table covers broad market and factor-based ETFs, and the third table focuses on sector-specific ETFs in the US market. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the ETF's investment strategy and weighting method before investing and shares the ETF list for further discussion in future videos.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡ETF

Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund and exchange-traded product, traded on stock exchanges much like individual stocks. They hold a basket of securities, such as stocks, bonds, or commodities, and provide diversification. In the video, ETFs like XLK (holding tech companies) and TLT (holding long-term US Treasuries) are mentioned as examples.

💡Mutual Fund

A mutual fund is an investment vehicle made up of a pool of money collected from many investors to invest in securities. It is managed by a professional fund manager. Unlike ETFs, mutual funds are not traded on exchanges and their prices are calculated only once a day at the end of the trading day. The video contrasts ETFs with mutual funds as different types of investment vehicles.

💡Investment Account

An investment account is a brokerage account used to buy and sell securities like stocks, bonds, ETFs, and other investment products. The video emphasizes the importance of having a good investment account, such as with Interactive Brokers, to trade ETFs and other global investment products.

💡Risk Preference

Risk preference refers to an investor's willingness to take on risk in pursuit of higher potential returns. The video suggests that investors should consider their risk preference when choosing ETFs, such as opting for low-volatility ETFs for conservative investors or aggressive growth ETFs for those willing to take more risk.

💡Dividend

A dividend is a payment made by a corporation to its shareholders, usually as a distribution of profits. ETFs that hold dividend-paying stocks can provide investors with a source of income. The video mentions using ETF Database to find ETFs with high dividend yields, such as real estate ETFs.

💡Fund Flow

Fund flow, or capital flow, refers to the movement of money into or out of an investment fund, affecting its asset size. Positive fund flow indicates investor interest and can lead to asset growth, while negative flow indicates a decrease. The video explains that fund flow can reflect investor sentiment and demand for a particular ETF.

💡Fund Overlap

Fund overlap occurs when different ETFs hold a significant number of the same stocks, leading to a lack of diversification. The video warns against high fund overlap, as it can result in an investment portfolio that is overly concentrated in certain stocks, increasing risk rather than providing diversification benefits.

💡Correlation

Correlation measures the degree to which two variables move in relation to each other. In the context of investments, it refers to how two assets, such as ETFs, move in relation to each other. The video discusses the importance of having a diversified portfolio with assets that have low correlation to reduce overall portfolio risk.

💡DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan)

A Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) allows investors to automatically reinvest dividends into additional shares of the ETF, often without incurring taxes on the dividends received. The video mentions DRIP as a strategy to compound returns over time by reinvesting dividends back into the ETF.

💡Market Capitalization

Market capitalization, or market cap, is the total value of all a company's shares of stock. In the context of ETFs, it refers to the weighting of stocks within the ETF based on their market cap. The video explains that ETFs like XLK are heavily weighted towards large-cap stocks like Apple and Microsoft, which can lead to concentration risk.

💡Asset Allocation

Asset allocation is the process of dividing an investment portfolio among different asset categories, such as stocks, bonds, and cash equivalents. The video discusses the importance of understanding an ETF's asset allocation strategy, which can be market-cap weighted or equally weighted, and how this affects the overall performance and risk of the ETF.

Highlights

ETF stands for Exchange-Traded Fund, which is a type of fund that can be traded on stock exchanges like stocks.

An ETF is a basket of investments, which can include stocks, bonds, commodities, etc.

There are various types of funds, including mutual funds, money market funds, and private funds.

ETFs can be traded freely on the stock market, unlike other funds.

Investing in ETFs requires an investment account with a reputable broker.

The U.S. stock market is the largest and most liquid, making it an attractive market for ETF investments.

There are over 2900 ETFs traded in the U.S. market.

Investors should consider their risk tolerance and investment goals when choosing ETFs.

ETF Database (ETFdb.com) is a comprehensive and free tool for ETF investors.

VettaFi (formerly ETF Database) offers various investment tools and a complete ETF database.

Investors can use ETF Database to find ETFs based on asset class, sector, industry, and region.

ETF Research Center (ETFrc.com) is a free tool to analyze fund overlap and investment strategy.

Fund overlap can lead to concentrated risk, which may not provide the desired diversification.

Investment portfolio correlation is important to ensure a balanced and stable investment return.

Ray Dalio's all-weather portfolio concept uses a mix of asset classes to adapt to various market conditions.

Portfolio Visualization is a tool to analyze the historical performance of investment strategies.

Dividend Reinvestment Plans (DRIPs) allow for tax-efficient reinvestment of ETF dividends.

ETFs can have different weighting strategies, such as market-cap weighting or equal weighting.

Investors should understand the investment strategy and weighting method of an ETF before investing.

The speaker provides a detailed ETF investment list categorized by asset class, structure, and industry.

Transcripts

play00:00

什么是ETF

play00:01

ETF指的是交易所交易基金

play00:04

这里有两个概念

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首先它是一种基金

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其次 它是可以像股票一样

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在交易所交易的基金

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所谓基金就是一个投资组合

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就类似一个篮子

play00:14

它里面可以装很多东西

play00:16

比如可以持有多个股票、债券

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或者大宗商品等等

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比如说XLK

play00:21

持有很多著名的科技公司

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比如TLT

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持有的是20年以上期限的长期美国国债

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再比如GLD

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持有的是实物黄金

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ETF是基金的一种类型

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除此之外

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还有共同基金 Mutual Fund

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货币市场基金 Money Market Fund

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和私募基金 Private Fund 等等

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ETF与其他这些基金最大的不同

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就是ETF是可以在股票市场上

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自由交易的

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既然ETF可以像股票一样交易

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很显然

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如果你打算投资美股市场上的ETF

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你就必须要有一个美股的投资帐户

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一般来说呢

play00:55

选择信誉好的

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大银行大券商

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搞清楚税务问题很重要

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我使用Interactive Broker作为我的股票经纪商

play01:02

它最大的好处

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就是一个账户可以投资全球

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几乎所有的交易品种

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股票 债券 商品期货 各种衍生品

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当然也可以交易全球各大交易所的ETF

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除此之外呢

play01:14

我还在加拿大BMO银行

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开设了股票投资账户 Investorline

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免税投资账户TFSA

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退休投资账户、RRSP等等

play01:23

这些账户也都可以投资美国的ETF

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为什么要投资美国的ETF呢?

play01:29

因为美国的股票市场是全球最大

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制度最成熟

play01:33

流动性最好的市场

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简而言之一句话

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钱多的地方容易赚到钱

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目前在美股市场上交易的ETF数量

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已经超过2900只了

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要在这2900只ETF中找出几个

play01:45

适合的投资标的

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那绝对不是一件容易的事情

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作为投资者 你首先要明确

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自己的风险偏好和投资目标

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比如说你的风险偏好比较低

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那你可以关注那些低波动类型的股票ETF

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如果你的投资目标

play02:00

是获得不低于市场平均的收益

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你可以选择追踪大盘指数的ETF

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比如 SPY VOO 或者 VTI

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如果你希望透过ETF来

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获得日常的现金流

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你可以投资一些高分红的股票ETF

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也可以投资债券ETF

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或者房地产信托REIT

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甚至你可以选择每个月都分红的品种

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让市场给你发工资

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不管怎么说

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明确自己想要什么最重要

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在节目的后半段

play02:26

我会提供一份详细的ETF投资清单

play02:29

供大家参考

play02:31

那么怎样找到

play02:32

想要的ETF有什么工具可以实现呢?

play02:35

接下去我给大家介绍一个强大 并且

play02:37

是免费的工具

play02:39

市面上有关于ETF投资的工具很多

play02:41

我最喜欢的是这个ETFdatabase的网站

play02:45

这个网站后来被收购

play02:46

改名叫做VettaFi

play02:47

但是网站的域名还是原来的 ETFdb.com

play02:51

这个网站据我所知

play02:52

具有市面上最完整的ETF数据库

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网站的首页上可以看到各种ETF投资工具

play02:59

点击ETF Database

play03:00

我们可以看到不同的分类

play03:02

比如说资产类别

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部门 行业 地区 国家等等

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如果你对现金分红类的ETF感兴趣

play03:09

可以点击Dividend 这个标签

play03:11

它将带你进入一个新的页面

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同样也是按照资产类别 部门 行业进行分类

play03:17

重点是

play03:17

它列出了每一类ETF的平均分红率

play03:20

比如房地产ETF的平均分红率是 3.78%

play03:24

我们点进去看

play03:25

这就是房地产相关的ETF页面

play03:27

点击 Dividends 可以看到按照分红率排序的结果

play03:31

如果你对债券感兴趣

play03:32

可以在ETFDatabase页面往下滚动

play03:35

找到债券

play03:36

这里有两个债券ETF分类

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一个是按照债券类型分类

play03:41

一个是按照债券的久期分类

play03:43

如果你希望建立一个激进的投资组合

play03:46

你可以滚动到投资风格类别

play03:48

选择Aggressive Growth 积极成长型ETF

play03:52

这里列出来

play03:53

比如说大家都很熟悉的

play03:54

纳斯达克100指数QQQ

play03:56

还有罗素1000成长股IWF

play03:59

标普科技股指数XLK

play04:01

标普500成长股组合IVW等等

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网站也为你准备了一些

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热门的主题ETF分类

play04:09

点击Themes

play04:10

你可以看到有AI的ETF

play04:12

有Blockchain区块链的ETF

play04:15

你也可以点击查看所有的主题分类

play04:18

当然你也可以搜索关键词

play04:20

比如说低波动率的ETF

play04:22

或者是高Beta的ETF

play04:25

总之ETF Database

play04:27

是一个非常强大 非常有价值的工具

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有了这个工具 我相信你很快就会

play04:31

找到几个你喜欢的ETF

play04:33

接下去的问题就是

play04:35

怎样深入的分析它们

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比如说ETF的投资风格是怎样的

play04:38

持有哪些股票

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每年的回报是多少

play04:41

有没有分红等等

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这些都是非常重要的问题

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接下去我来演示一下

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怎样获得这些信息

play04:46

比如说XLK

play04:48

首先展示出来的是基本信息

play04:50

它的发行商是StateStreet

play04:52

是全球第三大ETF发行商

play04:55

它的费用率是0.1%

play04:57

这意味着

play04:58

如果你持有1000美元的XLK

play05:01

每年需要支付1美元的管理费用

play05:03

另外我们可以看到XLK追踪的指数

play05:06

是标普科技股指数

play05:08

它的投资风格是

play05:09

科技门类下的大市值成长股

play05:12

它的资产规模是500多亿美元

play05:14

它目前发行的股份数是2亿9000万股

play05:18

第二个重要的信息是分红与估值

play05:21

XLK的PE Ratio 市盈率是 23.77倍

play05:25

它的派息率是0.77%

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另外 一个重要的信息是持股构成

play05:31

很明显 苹果和微软持有的

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比例是非常高的

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这两只股票就占据这个ETF

play05:36

持仓的45%以上的份额

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再往下看它总共持有67支股票

play05:42

前十大持仓占比接近70%

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前十五大持仓接近80% 这说明什么

play05:49

这说明XLK的表现

play05:51

严重依赖这十五支股票

play05:53

尤其是苹果和微软的表现

play05:55

对这支ETF的影响非常大

play05:58

还有一个比较有意思的数据

play06:00

是这个Fund Flow

play06:01

Fund Flow 可以翻译成资金流

play06:03

是表达ETF所管理的资产规模的变动情况

play06:07

资金流入 会导致资产规模增加

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资金流出会导致资产规模减少

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资产规模的增减

play06:14

一方面受到价格波动的影响

play06:17

另外一个非常重要的影响因素

play06:19

就是ETF股份数量的变动

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这里简单说一个小知识

play06:24

就是ETF有两种交易方式

play06:27

一种呢? 就是在股票市场上买卖

play06:29

我们叫做二级市场交易

play06:31

还有一种交易方式呢

play06:32

就是由授权的参与者

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向ETF的发行商

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来进行申购赎回

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这种交易方式

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我们称之为叫做一级市场交易

play06:42

一级市场上的申购赎回

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会导致ETF的股份数量发生变化

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而我们在二级市场上买卖股票

play06:50

这只是股份换手

play06:52

不会产生数量变化

play06:53

Fund Flow资金流的变化

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实际上是反映了投资者的情绪变化

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反映了投资者对这只ETF的

play07:00

一种供需关系

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另外一个重要的数据

play07:03

就是Performance价格表现

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这里有一个月 三个月 年初至今

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1年3年5年的股价表现

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当然我们都知道

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历史不能代表未来

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但是呢?

play07:13

我们可以从这些数据当中

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观察惯性

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比如说XLK过去5年的

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年化回报率是20%左右

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如果未来5年依然要保持

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不低于20%的年化回报率

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相当于每个月的回报率不应低于1.53%

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每三个月的回报率不应低于4.66%

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通过观察这些数据的变化

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我们大致就可以了解到

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我们的投资目标是否可以达成

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play07:40

你现在应该知道怎样分析ETF了

play07:43

但是 如果说你打算持有多只ETF的话

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有一个问题 你必须要高度重视

play07:48

那就是基金重叠 Fund Overlap

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基金重叠是指

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不同的ETF所持有的股票存在重叠的情况

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举例来说

play07:57

XLK和QQQ这两只ETF

play08:00

XLK追踪标普科技股指数

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QQQ追踪纳斯达克100指数

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这两个ETF从名称上看

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似乎是没有什么关联

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但是我们仔细看它们两个的持仓结构

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就会发现

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这两个ETF的前十五大持股中

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绝大多数是相同的

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你可能会问 这有什么不好?

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换个角度思考一下

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你为什么要持有多只ETF

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我想你的目的是为了

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获取来自不同类型的投资收益

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这是获取差异化收益的方式

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同时也是分散风险的方式

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想象一下

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如果你同时持有XLK和QQQ

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这相当于你的投资组合

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将会非常依赖苹果和微软的股价表现

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万一他们出现黑天鹅事件

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将会对你的投资收益产生巨大的影响

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万一科技股集体下跌

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这两个ETF也会同时下跌

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并没有起到分散风险的效果

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大多数人投资天赋的目的呢?

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主要还是分散投资

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避免戏剧性的大涨大跌

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否则还不如集中资金买几只股票呢?

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你说是不是

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这里给大家分享另外一个

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非常好用的免费工具

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ETF Research Center

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网址是ETFrc.com

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首页上我们可以找到

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Fund Overlap 基金重叠这个选项

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进去之后在这里分别

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输入XLK和QQQ

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点击 寻找重叠

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所以我们看

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XLK持有的65支股票中的41.5%

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也存在于QQQ之中

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QQQ持有的100只股票中的27%

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也存在于XLK之中

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因此 这两只ETF中有27只股票是重叠的

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重叠的市值权重是47%

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我认为如果说基金重叠超过30%

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那就需要重新考量了

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是不是应该同时持有这两只ETF

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另外再来看一个例子

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XLK和SOXX

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这两只ETF的基金权重重叠是24%

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SOXX 追踪的是费城半导体行业指数

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虽然说半导体行业也属于科技行业

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但是它们这两个ETF重叠的部分并不多

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因此同时持有XLK和SOXX

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我认为是合理的

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另外 这个工具还有一个特别的用途

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就是专门用来寻找重叠的股票

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比如说

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我想找标普500成长股指数中

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有哪一些是属于半导体行业的股票

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我们可以发现这两只ETF

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有14只股票是重叠的

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有10%的市值重叠

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这里展示出权值最大的5只股票

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再举个例子

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我想知道罗素2000指数中

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有多少只股票是属于AI概念

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那么很简单

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使用罗素2000指数IWM

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和AI概念BOTZ来寻找交集

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我们看它们有15只股票存在重叠

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有1%的市值交集

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5只市值重叠最大的股票陈列出来

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就是这些

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我们都知道

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每一个ETF都对应着一个投资策略

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我们投资一个ETF其实就是

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去参与这个投资策略

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当然我们也可以在不同的投资策略当中

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去寻找交集

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讲完基金重叠这个概念之后呢?

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我想向大家介绍

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另外一个重要的概念

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叫做投资组合的相关性

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所谓投资组合的相关性

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就是两个品种之间的关联

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它们的运动方向相同 称之为 正相关

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它们的运动方向相反 则称之为负相关

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正相关的程度用0到+1来表示

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负相关的程度用0到-1来表示

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比如我们现在看到的这张表格

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列举了美股市场上一些主要的ETF

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与VTI这个全市场指数之间的关联性

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表格最上方的数值是 1

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表示 这些ETF的运动方向

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与VTI运动方向完全相同

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表格最下方的数值是接近-1

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表示 这些ETF

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与WTI的运动方向完全相反

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我们讨论相关性的目的

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是希望我们的投资组合

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各品种之间的关联性

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尽可能不要太强

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这样就可以让我们的投资收益

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尽可能平稳地向上运行

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而不是像过山车一样大幅波动

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但是呢?

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我们也不希望各品种之间

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是完全的负相关

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因为完全负相关长期运动的结果

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是相互抵消无法

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无法达到投资增值的目的

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著名的桥水基金创始人Ray Dalio

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提出过一个叫做

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全天候投资组合的概念

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这个概念就是用关联性不同的标的

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来适应各种市场行情

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我找到一个叫做懒人投资组合的网站

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对Dalio的全天候组合做了详细的描述

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组合中包含30%的VTI 全市场指数

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40%的20年期以上美国国债 TLT

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15%的3到7年的国债 IEI

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7.5%的黄金GLD 和7.5%的大宗商品GSG

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总体的回报情况是这样

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这里还有一些参数比例

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我就不细说了 大家自己去研究

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网站地址我放在影片的下方

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为了更直观地看看这个

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全天候组合的历史表现

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我这里使用

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Portfolio Visualization 这个网站提供的免费工具

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来进行数据回测

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在这里输入代码和比例

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回测数据 从1985年开始到2023年

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假设初始投入1万美元

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每个月重新平衡组合的配置比例

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然后股息再投资

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参照物选择VTI全市场指数

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开始分析

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最后的结果是这样

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总体上说

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由于这些品种之间的关联性不强

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所以这样配置的结果

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就是让投资组合的波动性下降

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收益率曲线比较平滑

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避免了大幅下跌

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当然 也会抑制上涨的幅度

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投资就是这样

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没有人能做到完全的趋利避害

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接下去我们来说说股息或者叫做分红

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前面我们已经提到过

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怎样利用ETF Database 来寻找高分红的ETF

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我们投资ETF

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ETF持有很多企业的股票

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企业会派发股息

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那么这些股息就会通过ETF发放给你

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如果你什么都不做

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这些股息就会进入你的投资账户

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成为现金

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当然是缴了一大笔税之后的现金余额

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为了避免这种情况发生

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很多企业就提供股息再投资计划

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这就是DRIP

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DRIP使得ETF的分红派息

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自动重新投资

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购买更多的ETF而不用交税

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这样不断的获得红利再投入

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再获得更多红利 再重复投入

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这就会产生复利的效果

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这个 DRIP 在不同的国家不同的经纪商

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会有不同的政策

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我就不细说了

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Google一下你的经纪商后面

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加一个DRIP的关键词

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你应该会看到相关的信息

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前面我们已经说到过

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每一个ETF都对应着一个投资策略

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有的是被动投资策略

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比如说追踪某一个指数某一个行业

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有的是基于某种投资理念的

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主动管理模式

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比如说Cathie Wood旗下的Ark基金

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推出过多个创新理念的主题ETF

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还有的ETF是基于某一种模型的算法

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所以在投资ETF之前

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你一定要搞清楚

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这个ETF的投资策略

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是否符合你的要求

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另外就是要搞清楚ETF的配置方式

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比如说大多数ETF的配置方式

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是以市值加权

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也就是说市值越大的股票

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在这个ETF中所占的份额就越大

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就比如说我们前面聊到的XLK

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苹果和微软 这两只股票占比就非常高

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如果苹果和微软的股票

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不断受到市场的追捧

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它们的市值就会不断的提高

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市值不断提高

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就会导致ETF需要不断的增加投入

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买入这两只股票

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来满足市值加权的配置要求

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于是股票涨 市值提高

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ETF增加投入

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然后再推高市值

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然后再增加投入

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再推高市值

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这样不断正反馈继续下去

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最终会走向一个极端

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直到某一天进行不下去了

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然后反过来

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不断的反向的强化

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为了避免这种情况

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也有一些ETF使用等权重配置的方式

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这个列表里都是等权重配置的ETF

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市值加权的配置方式会产生马太效应

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ETF的表现会侧重于局部

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某一些大市值股票对整体表现影响非常大

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而等权重的配置方式

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则是获取整体的平均收益

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这两种配置方式各有优劣

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重点是你要想清楚你想要什么

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最后我把这个ETF列表分享给大家

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这个列表分成三个子表格

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第一个表格是各类资产类别的ETF

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第一大类是权益类的ETF

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这里面有全球股市

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美国股市 加拿大股市

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还有发达国家股市

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发展中国家股市

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中国股市

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当然权益类里面也包含房地产

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这些是美国和加拿大的房地产相关的ETF

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第二大类是固定收益类

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就是各类的债券ETF

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有美国市场的 也有加拿大市场的

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第三大类就是大宗商品的ETF

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第二个表格

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我把它称之为结构类的ETF

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比如这里有宽基指数类的ETF

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它们从不同的层面反映市场的状况

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这一小块是市场因子

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比如说动量因子

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低波动率因子等等

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下面这一组

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是标普500指数11个大部类的等权指数

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再往下是成长股

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ARK系列主动管理策略的ETF

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下面这一大块

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是各种主题概念ETF 和AI策略的ETF

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第三个表格是美股的各个行业

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细分行业的ETF

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这三张表

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不仅仅可以作为投资ETF的备选池

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同时呢 它们也可以作为一个整体

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让全球市场尽收眼底

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关于这三张表的内容呢

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我们将来还会深入的讨论

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