Crypto will chop forever, are you having fun, Anon? Market Check

Summary

In this Market Check episode, the hosts delve into the current state of the cryptocurrency market, noting the prolonged period of price stagnation and chop. They discuss the potential for a market turnaround in Q4, drawing parallels to historical patterns. The conversation covers various technical analysis perspectives, including the possibility of a 'cup and handle' pattern for Bitcoin and a comparison to gold's market behavior. The hosts also touch on the importance of recognizing market structure and the challenges of maintaining conviction during periods of market indecision.

Takeaways

• 📈 The host discusses the current state of the cryptocurrency market, describing it as being in a prolonged period of 'chop' or sideways movement with little significant price action.
• 🔍 The conversation highlights that many legitimate projects in the crypto space are experiencing reaccumulation phases after significant drawdowns.
• 🗓️ The script references historical market behavior, suggesting that the current market conditions are reminiscent of past cycles, particularly drawing a comparison to a period from March to October in a previous year.
• 🤔 The host speculates on potential future market movements, considering the possibility of a continued range-bound market or an eventual breakout similar to historical patterns.
• 💸 There is a discussion about the importance of seasonality in the crypto market, with Q4 often being a strong period for crypto based on historical data.
• 📊 Technical analysis plays a significant role in the conversation, with the hosts examining various chart patterns and indicators to predict future price movements.
• 📉 The script mentions the exhaustion and frustration felt by market participants due to the lack of clear direction and the seemingly endless range-bound trading.
• 💭 Sentiment is a key theme, with the hosts acknowledging the negative and pessimistic outlook prevalent among many traders and investors due to the current market conditions.
• 💡 The conversation emphasizes the importance of patience and the need for investors to have a long-term perspective, especially during periods of market consolidation.
• 📝 The hosts also discuss the potential impact of external factors such as macroeconomic conditions and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on the crypto market.

Q & A

What is the general sentiment of the cryptocurrency market discussed in the script?

The general sentiment of the cryptocurrency market discussed in the script is negative, characterized by a prolonged period of sideways price movement, often referred to as 'chop', leading to disinterest and frustration among market participants.

What does the term 'chop' refer to in the context of the script?

In the context of the script, 'chop' refers to a period of trading where the price of cryptocurrencies is moving sideways, showing little to no significant progress or trend, which is seen as a frustrating and unproductive phase by traders.

What is the significance of the 'reaccumulation' mentioned in the script?

The term 'reaccumulation' in the script refers to a phase in the market where assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, are being bought up again after a significant price drop, suggesting a potential bottoming out and a preparation for a future uptrend.

What does the speaker suggest about the historical performance of Q4 for cryptocurrencies?

The speaker suggests that historically, the fourth quarter (Q4) has been a strong period for cryptocurrencies, often showing better performance compared to other quarters of the year.

What is the 'cup and handle' pattern mentioned in the script, and how does it relate to Bitcoin?

The 'cup and handle' pattern is a technical analysis formation that预示着上升趋势的确立。In the script, it is suggested that Bitcoin might be forming a similar pattern to gold's past performance, which could indicate an eventual breakout to the upside.

What is the significance of the 'Halving' event mentioned in the script in relation to Bitcoin's price?

The 'Halving' event is significant because it reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, which can lead to a supply shock and potentially drive up the price. The script suggests that the market's behavior around the time of the Halving has historically been positive for Bitcoin's price.

What is the 'POS having correction' mentioned in the script, and how does it relate to market timing?

The 'POS having correction' likely refers to a post-Halving period of market correction or consolidation. The script implies that such a correction is a typical part of the market cycle, and it is used to discuss the timing and potential for market recovery or continuation of an uptrend.

What does the speaker mean by 'structural price action' and why is it important?

The speaker refers to 'structural price action' as the pattern of price movement that shows a clear trend or structure, such as higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend. It is important because it helps in identifying the overall market direction and potential turning points.

What is the advice given by the speaker regarding entering the market during periods of low volatility or 'chop'?

The speaker advises that during periods of low volatility or 'chop', it's crucial to respect the levels of support and resistance, and to enter the market with a long-term perspective, potentially looking at the yearly volume profile and VWAP to determine value areas for buying.

How does the speaker suggest using technical analysis to make decisions in the current market conditions?

The speaker suggests using technical analysis to identify patterns such as 'bull flags', 'reversal patterns', and 'structured price action' to make informed decisions. They emphasize the importance of respecting market structure and looking for shifts in trend that could indicate an end to the current 'chop' phase.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Crypto Market's Prolonged Chop and Range

The speaker discusses the current state of the cryptocurrency market, which has been experiencing lackluster price action for about five and a half months. They describe a sideways trend with many altcoins suffering significant losses. The speaker differentiates between less legitimate projects and more legitimate ones, suggesting that the latter are in a reaccumulation phase. They compare the current market situation to previous periods of stagnation and emphasize the importance of historical context when analyzing market behavior.

05:02

🔍 Analyzing Market Trends and Seasonality

The speaker delves into historical market trends, suggesting that the current market situation is reminiscent of past patterns. They highlight a previous period of market inactivity that lasted from March to October, noting that such phases are common in crypto. The speaker also touches on the potential impact of seasonality on market behavior, hinting at a possible uptick in Q4, historically a strong period for cryptocurrencies. They discuss the importance of recognizing and learning from these patterns to navigate the market effectively.

10:03

📈 Bullish Outlook Despite Market Fatigue

Despite the current market fatigue and negative sentiment, the speaker maintains a bullish outlook. They emphasize the importance of mental fortitude during periods of market stagnation and suggest that the market is likely in a prolonged range phase. The speaker also discusses the potential for a significant market breakout, drawing parallels to gold's market behavior. They encourage viewers to stay patient and focused on market structure, suggesting that a positive shift may be on the horizon.

15:03

🤔 Market Structure and the Importance of Patience

The speaker stresses the importance of understanding market structure and the need for patience when trading cryptocurrencies. They discuss the concept of 'chop' in the market and how it can be mentally exhausting for traders. The speaker also addresses the challenges of maintaining a long-term perspective during periods of market inactivity and the potential for a significant market shift in Q4, supported by historical data.

20:05

💸 Navigating Market Volatility and Support Levels

The speaker discusses the volatility of the crypto market and the importance of recognizing support levels. They share their personal trading philosophy, emphasizing the need to respect market levels and to approach trading with a probabilistic mindset. The speaker also addresses the challenges of trading during periods of market uncertainty and the potential for a market rebound, suggesting that the current market conditions may present opportunities for strategic buying.

25:06

📊 Technical Analysis and Market Patterns

The speaker provides a detailed technical analysis of the market, focusing on patterns that suggest a potential market turnaround. They discuss the concept of a 'bull flag' and the significance of support and resistance levels. The speaker also addresses the importance of recognizing and respecting these levels in making informed trading decisions. They conclude by emphasizing the need for patience and a long-term perspective in the face of market volatility.

30:08

🚀 The Potential for Explosive Market Growth

The speaker expresses optimism about the potential for explosive growth in the crypto market, drawing on historical precedents and technical analysis. They discuss the concept of a 'parabolic trap' and suggest that the market may be due for a significant upward movement. The speaker also addresses the importance of timing and positioning in capturing potential gains, encouraging viewers to stay informed and prepared for market shifts.

35:11

🌐 Global Economic Factors and Their Impact on Crypto

The speaker touches on global economic factors that may influence the crypto market, including interest rate hikes and inflation. They discuss the potential for a recession and its impact on market sentiment. The speaker also addresses the importance of considering macroeconomic trends when analyzing market behavior and making trading decisions.

40:11

📉 The Risks and Rewards of Market Timing

The speaker discusses the risks and rewards associated with timing market entries and exits. They share their personal experiences and strategies for managing risk during periods of market volatility. The speaker also emphasizes the importance of having a clear understanding of one's risk tolerance and investment goals when navigating the crypto market.

45:13

🌟 The Power of Patience and Long-Term Vision

The speaker concludes by emphasizing the power of patience and maintaining a long-term vision when investing in cryptocurrencies. They discuss the importance of staying the course during periods of market stagnation and the potential rewards of a long-term, strategic approach to trading. The speaker also encourages viewers to stay informed, to learn from market history, and to approach trading with a clear plan and a probabilistic mindset.

Keywords

💡Crypto

Crypto refers to cryptocurrencies, which are digital or virtual currencies that use cryptography for security. In the video, the term is central as the discussion revolves around the state of cryptocurrency markets, their price actions, and future predictions. The script mentions 'crypto' in contexts like 'crypto will chop forever,' indicating the volatility and trading patterns within the cryptocurrency space.

💡Price Action

Price action in the financial context refers to the movement of prices on a chart, which can reflect supply and demand changes over time. The video discusses 'price action' in relation to the sideways movement and lack of significant price changes in the cryptocurrency market, indicating a period of consolidation or indecision among traders.

💡L1s

L1s, or Layer 1s, in the context of blockchain and cryptocurrencies, refer to the base protocol or the primary blockchain network on which a cryptocurrency operates. The script mentions 'a lot of L1s' when discussing the performance of various cryptocurrencies, suggesting that many of these foundational networks have experienced significant price drops or lackluster performance.

💡Beta Plays

Beta plays in investing refer to assets that are expected to perform in line with the market. In the video, 'beta plays' are used to describe certain cryptocurrencies that have followed the market's overall trend, particularly in experiencing downturns. The script suggests that while some cryptocurrencies have 'bled,' others that are more legitimate 'beta plays' are looking more like re-accumulations.

💡Altcoins

Altcoins are alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin. They are digital currencies that exist alongside Bitcoin and often attempt to offer technological improvements or different applications. The script mentions 'altcoins are just toasted,' indicating that many of these alternative cryptocurrencies have suffered significant losses in value.

💡Reaccumulation

In financial markets, reaccumulation refers to a period where investors buy more of an asset after it has experienced a decline in price. The video discusses 'reaccumulation' in the context of certain cryptocurrencies that appear to be in a phase where investors are buying more after a significant price drop, suggesting a potential recovery or accumulation phase.

💡Range Bound

Being 'range bound' indicates that an asset's price is stuck within a certain price range, showing little movement or volatility. The script describes Bitcoin as being 'range bound,' suggesting that it is experiencing a period of consolidation without any significant upward or downward trends.

💡Seasonality

Seasonality in financial markets refers to patterns that repeat at certain times of the year. The video discusses 'seasonality' in relation to cryptocurrency markets, suggesting that certain times of the year, like Q4 (the fourth quarter), have historically been good for cryptocurrency performance. The script implies that understanding these seasonal patterns can be useful for investors.

💡Grifting

In the context of the video, 'grifting' likely refers to the act of promoting or selling something, often with the intention of deception or manipulation for personal gain. It is used in a broader discussion about the sentiment and behaviors within the cryptocurrency space, possibly indicating manipulative practices or scams that can occur.

💡Bear Market

A bear market is a period of declining prices in financial markets, typically characterized by a drop of 20% or more from recent highs. The script mentions the potential for a 'bear market' in the context of broader market conditions and the possibility of a significant downturn in cryptocurrency prices, which is a concern for investors given the implications for their holdings.

Highlights

Discussion on the prolonged period of sideways price action in the crypto market.

Analysis of Bitcoin's massive trading range and potential future price movements.

Comparison of current market conditions with historical data to predict future trends.

Explanation of the concept of 'chop' in crypto markets and its impact on investor sentiment.

Insights on how to identify and interpret market structure in crypto trading.

Discussion on the potential for Q4 to be a strong season for crypto based on historical data.

Technical analysis of Bitcoin's monthly timeframe chart for bullish signals.

Comparison of Bitcoin's price action with gold's historical movements.

Importance of recognizing and respecting support and resistance levels in crypto trading.

Debate on whether the current market is a bear market or still within a bull cycle.

Strategies for managing risk and protecting investments during volatile market conditions.

Discussion on the potential for a 'cup and handle' pattern to emerge in Bitcoin's price chart.

Analysis of the Federal Reserve's impact on the stock and crypto markets.

Importance of patience and long-term perspective in crypto investing.

Technical analysis of Ethereum's price chart and potential future price movements.

Discussion on the use of technical indicators like RSI and MACD in crypto trading.

Strategies for entering and exiting trades based on market structure and indicators.

Final thoughts on the market's direction and advice for investors.

Transcripts

[Music]

[Music]

good morning good evening good afternoon

welcome back ladies and gentlemen to

another episode of Market check brought

to you by

BB the title of today's show is crypto

will chop forever are you having fun

Anan well ain't that the truth guys uh

it's been it's been five and a half

months now roughly of pretty garbage

price action across the board right like

you in a on a very high time frame

perspective you're moving sideways um on

a lot of l1s a lot of beta plays have

you know basically bled and have sort of

entered sort of a

reaccumulation um obviously a lot of

altcoins are just toasted but I'd say

more like the legitimate projects uh

more legitimate beta plays looking more

like re accumulations but big draw Downs

while Bitcoin is just in this massive

massive range within a range within a

range within a range range it is range

setion for Bitcoin eth definitely looks

like it has a little bit more work to do

on the high time frame structure looks

all right uh middle time frames not so

great locally who even knows right but I

we've been in phases like this before uh

where crypto has basically had this

prolonged period uh of chop and range

and it's a really annoying feature of

crypto that actually most of the time is

spent doing literally nothing chopping

alos basically trading back and forth

chopping each other up uh people

becoming completely disinterested and

repulsed by uh the lack of anything

constructive within the space uh price

action wise and then also like sentiment

wise uh and grifting wise right um but

we we've even in recent years we've had

price action kind of comparable to in my

opinion what we're going through right

now um let's maybe let's maybe highlight

a few of them right like it's Friday

pretty disappointing price action across

the board right so it's like there's

really only so much we can do but we're

going to have some fun today we're going

to talk about markets we're going to

wildly speculate on on perhaps what

comes next but you know it's you know

it's it's it's a tough Market guys it's

a tough Market because we're just not

doing anything and uh you know this is

junk right like this is junk so when I

when I think of periods of time like

this right where it just feels like it's

never going to end it makes me think of

you know basically this okay like in in

the most recent years something like

this right um I could put it in log mode

just so you can see it a little bit

better but this was actually like the

seasonality of this actually pretty much

aligns with what we're doing right now

as well so we were here basically from

March we were here from March let me

just mark this out we were here from

March all the way basically until

October was when we like really broke

out you could say we started breaking

out in like you know we bottomed in

September and then you know curled up

but I would say like the real breakout

was here in you know very kind of tail

end of October right so this was

actually about 226 days and seasonally

right like let let's mark out Q4 right

so here's October actually let's just do

September let's mark out September

1 right so here's

September and then here is the end of Q4

right so this was Q4 right here this

whole

move was Q4 all right this was Q4 I'll

make this a different color

right so we were in this giant prolonged

range where it just felt like it would

never end right and you know a lot of

people were more actively trading during

this time like scalping trying to kind

of get through it that way uh but people

that were holding it was like you know

it it was it took some some mental

fortitude right um it definitely it took

a little bit of toughness and you know

we we have experienced this before it's

like the whether you want to blame it on

seasonality or whether you want to blame

it on just like you know this kind of

thing happens right and they try to

shake you out whatever you want to do um

that's fine but I think that there

really is no denying that like we're

we're most likely at this point in in

just some like long Pro prong range

right so here's uh we entered this one

here in technically February from when

we we marked up to this point let's just

say even this is the range going down

here middle of February um you know we

have basically

been doing this right so let's just

let's just Mark out the exact same

amount of time right um let's just say

227 days until we really break out that

would bring us out sometime end of

September potentially or maybe even

beginning of October um you know so

maybe we're in for something like this

right maybe we're in for something like

this it's of course never the same but

it's somewhat similar right so here we

marked out September so the the last

month the Q3 all the way through Q4 so I

kind of cheated a little bit I just

labeled as Q4 but point being is

September through end of year all right

so we have September coming up right

here and end of the year to switch time

frames and end of the year is going to

take us out

to if I can get my chart to work hang on

one second

guys right over in here right so it's

possible that you know we're we're about

to do the the same thing and you know

maybe the bottom is in maybe you know

maybe we move back down who knows

exactly but what I can tell you that you

know seasonally Q4 has been pretty good

for crypto right there's a lot of places

you can access that data um but Q4 has

historically been pretty good for crypto

and um here let me even see I might have

it um I might have a screenshot of it

give me one one

moment no I don't have one

saved that's all right I can pull it up

later for you guys but I don't remember

the exact numbers but Q4 has

historically been the best uh the best

season for crypto and you know you could

blame it on like you know it's it's a

summer thing right like all the big

money goes to the The Hamptons and they

don't want to trade um you know I kind

of subscribe to something similar to

that like that that belief but either

way you know we're in a long long range

right here um unfortunately it's

something that happens from time to time

in crypto right um and then here we can

you know we can approach things a little

differently as well right um well oh

first we got a big super chat here man

oh of course it's crypto Maxi man thank

you so much you're always giving us us

uh huge super chats thank you so much

for the support man it it really helps

when the market are doing this because

this makes our jobs a lot tougher right

we're uh yeah we we show up every single

day we have a Daily Show but there's not

so much to talk about you know when the

market is doing this and it's a shame

right we can feel the uh we can feel the

sentiment we can feel there's a lot of

negativity and pessimism out there and

it's it's not fun right like this is a

this is a very difficult time to to be

doing what we're doing right narrating

everything that's going on these markets

so not just to you crypto Maxi but

appreciate you guys showing up every

single day you know making the most of

it of this scam market right of this

absolute scam NeverEnding range uh you

know it's tough man it's it's it's

exhausting right it's exhausting I think

I think a lot of us share like I think a

lot of us share like a higher time frame

bias right so let's just save these

drawings and and we can come back to

them a lot of us share you know a high

time frame bias right like starting on

the uh the monthly time frame actually

let me switch over to a different chart

here so you know looking at at this on

the monthly time frame right like this

is really without question like this is

a pretty pretty bullish looking chart in

my opinion right you had right here

you've got a monthly F you know from a

big gap up and uh you know we came back

and we have more or less completely

filled it in right the entire thing has

been filled in like that looks pretty

solid in my

opinion um you know and I think there's

a lot of different ways to look at this

right but the way that I look at this is

like you know we have been aggressively

kind of like reaccumulated this is not a

this is not like a textbook distributive

pattern right here like this feels like

you know like an aggressive bleed down

and you're about to see this break at

some point to the upside and at this

point I would say you know just hold

your breath tell Q4 kind of thing but

you know this is kind of weird little ta

right but like eventually you're going

to pop above this to the

upside but locally right like there's a

lot more clarity on the higher time

frames like this this looks pretty solid

okay like this this doesn't look too bad

but we we've just been here forever

right you can draw this out very easily

but like when you're sitting here

looking at the price action every single

day like you really feel the lower the

lower time frame moves

um you really start to feel the lower

time frame moves so you know we can look

at it a few different ways right and I

actually want to pull up I want to pull

up gold here

because I think that Bitcoin is probably

doing something like gold did on a much

higher time

frame which is basically like this move

right here let's go a little higher here

we

go I think you could look forward to

something like this okay I I I really

believe you can look forward to

something like this for Bitcoin and it's

something that gold did not too long

ago just like a giant cup and handle

pattern and then an eventual breakout

right much different time frames but you

understand like the spirit of the move

um and then additionally right like you

can look at this and gold even had like

a similar sort of trap right down in

here that Bitcoin just had it doesn't

mean it's going to be perfect it doesn't

mean it's like a guarantee that the

bottom is in or anything like that but

you have to recognize like these moves

they typically happen time and time and

time again

um and I I think this is like a giant

cup and handle and I do think you are

going to see this you know expand to the

upside let's even just see if we can fit

this on the uh the Bitcoin

chart let's have some fun

right like something like this right

like this isn't perfect but you should

get the point and interesting how this

even looks the same right here like this

we highlighted this phase earlier we

were talking about like that chop range

of of

death that we were in last year

interesting that we had that for gold

here as well so even a little bit of

additional Confluence with this fractal

um certainly not fun right but we've

seen this before you know we have seen

this before so um it's hard to say how

long it's going to take but like I I

really don't have have much doubt that

this does resolve to the upside but it

just might take a little bit right it

just might take a little bit and it's

just not

it's not an easy thing to do at this

point to prospect like when when that

will end you know like it's it's not

it's an extremely difficult thing to do

because we've been here for so long and

so many people myself included are just

like exhausted of this price action um

let's take a look at this another way

here let's throw up some

havingsex right you guys have probably

seen I've done some analysis on this

before so shouldn't be anything

anything you haven't seen before but I

think Refreshers can be very helpful so

the black lines the vertical black lines

are Bitcoin

so bare Market bottom you grind up into

the having get a POS having correction

right like this doesn't look big but

this was big let me go down to the lower

time frames and you can see

it big POS having correction and then it

takes like you know four or five months

to really start moving up and then after

the US presidential election typically

you get about a year of froth and excess

right let's keep moving same thing last

cycle right we did have you know covid

which

certainly made the chart look a little

bit goofy but we were still trending up

right like as you can see from bare

Market low through the election like

that was up and to the right even if it

had some really big like reflexive

moves so again we're we're we're in

between the Bitcoin having and the

presidential election which is if you

look at last

cycle that was pretty junky price action

right like there's there's no other way

around it this was this was garbage you

know this was garbage I remember I was

holding Bitcoin at the time and eth um

and I remember I remember this drop um

right here and then I was like oh man

like that Bitcoin having just happened

why did we just have a drop like that

like we don't we're supposed to go up

after the having you know but anyways uh

in between the Bitcoin having and the

presidential election right like pretty

junky

now basically what we're doing right now

is we've gone up and to the right

from the bare Market

low all the way through the current

price action right we're in a posst

having correction we've had a pretty

nasty posst having correction and the

presidential elections coming up it's

actually November 5th so it's coming up

soon and we know that typically after uh

the election which is in a couple

months after the election is typically

when we get about a year of froth and

excess right I guess patterns are meant

to be broken eventually right but this

goes back pretty far so I'm looking at

this like ultra high time frame and I'm

like you know what am I really like like

is there really a reason to be concerned

about a pattern like this right like

we've seen fractals like this before

we've seen price action like this

before um you know like things don't on

the higher time frame look too bad but

at the same time you know when when you

see price action like here I'll I'll

remove these these drawings when you see

price action like this it's just so like

exhausting right and like you go down to

the lower time frames and it's like look

at

this look at like look at this it's

just it's awful you know it's uh it's

nuke and then it's Bart inverse Bart

Bart inverse BART

BART inverse Bart Bart inverse Bart Bart

fake markup to a giant Bart markup Bart

markup bar it's like I mean this is this

is awful you know like this is some of

the worst price action that I can ever

remember um having to watch and narrate

on a daily basis I mean this is like you

can't make this up it's awful right it's

like it's like a cruel sick joke that's

being uh played on you and not to be the

uh the 25-year-old technical analyz or

meme but it's like it makes you feel

like uh you know lose this level and its

lights out you know like locally right

we're looking at the 30 minute time

frame you look at this right now and

you're like oh man if you lose that

level like you know you're going to drop

down to to here you know and that's

scary and every little pullback feels

like way more tense than it should

because of how long you've been here and

how tired of it you are right it's uh

it's exhausting right I feel it too I

feel it too but I think this is a time

when you can kind of really lean into

like Market structure and just try to

stay focused with it and say like okay

you know what we are technically in a

downtrend here right like let's look at

this so here's our

downtrend and we are in one

so let's let's stop it right here for a

second and control price action ma

control price action yeah like here's

your downtrend right so the main

objective right now is trying to break

this downtrend right so this is a pop

the only thing that matters is that we

don't go on it could be here we could go

down a little bit more you just simply

want to see an uptrend begin right and

you don't know you're in one until you

get confirmation and I would say we

haven't had confirmation

but what you really just need to focus

on is like we had a high we had a low

lower high lower low lower high lower

low lower high lower low lower high we

want to put in a higher low wherever

that may come from that's the only thing

that really needs to be focused on right

now is okay this price this price action

sucks everybody's tired of it we know

it's going to come to an end eventually

we also know that like like there is a

backdrop for crypto to do well um you

know buying the dip buying the

volatility buying the junk and strong

names between a Bitcoin having and an

election here in the US historically has

aged well um you know let's focus on

let's focus on what really needs to

happen right let's focus on what really

needs to happen which is we need to stop

downtrending right so like what would

that look like in my opinion like it

it's going to be something like this

like you're going to want to see and it

I don't know where it comes from maybe

it's here maybe it's a little bit lower

like I I don't know um it's a Friday

anything can happen but you know I I

like there's there's some levels on the

chart that I think look pretty good

right like this is a pretty obvious

level that I think should hold here and

let me put it in I'll just put it in

blue so you can see it here like this is

pretty obvious in my opinion this is

actually like this is a good level right

this is a really really good level

um all right Wills we got will on camera

now too so like we'll see where a bottom

comes like again I I I'll say maybe it's

in maybe we go to the Blue Line uh maybe

we go a little bit below it but like

what you just need to work on Market

structure and like that's it that's our

only objective because like when you

finally get that higher time frame shift

of Market structure is when this range

of death ends okay um let me just see

some comments right

here when you get a second Max uh I have

some stuff on the

charts okay sounds good I just want to

read some comments

first

uh all right yeah thanks for being here

guys thanks for being here through the

uh through through the chop range of

death man it's

uh it's never ending but um one thing I

I wanted to to point out real quick

someone said we should be watching um NQ

and I want to just point out something

about NQ which is NASDAQ right and I

assume you're saying we need to watch

NASDAQ because like if NASDAQ tops like

you know crypto will certainly be topped

or something like that let's look at the

NASDAQ right

here I'll get rid of

RSI so what we have right here is the

NASDAQ with

crypto and something I'd like to point

out

here is that I don't like all the gaps

in that one let me do NQ

oh wait Nas 100 I feel like this one

might not have as many gaps or it might

even have more we'll see it's the same

all right whatever what I want to point

out real quick here and I'm going to

move this up so we can see

it is actually like seasonally if we are

going to compare crypto and the NASDAQ

right like let's take a look at what

happened during this chop range of

death last year right what you actually

saw was

crypto moving

up like

this and at that time the NASDAQ was

actually moving down like selling off

and granted it did V recover right um

I'm just saying like you know if we are

going to look at the NASDAQ in that

context like could the NASDAQ roll over

and do something like this and crypto

starts to move up again like it did last

Q4 it happened last year right like

pretty obvious that I mean it's even

like a similar pattern right like let's

let's look at the NASDAQ here so look at

the NASDAQ put in this top and then a

little shoulder and then a third you

know uh lower high

lower low right brutal could that be

happening

again right

here absolutely it could right like no

question could go like this could go

like

that and then maybe it you know moves up

from there and at that time just like

last year you know Bitcoin actually

moves

up so just wanted to just wanted to

provide that as well I don't know why

you were saying look at look at NASDAQ I

I would assume that's probably why

because NASDAQ looks a little I would

just say like a little questionable here

right looks a little bit questionable

but just wanted to point out that

actually last year um that is basically

what we saw so will you want you want to

share something you got your chart up in

the background I see yeah yeah I can R

through some stuff

cool I mean this is what I talked to you

guys about on

Wednesday uh and I talked about it last

week too when we were kind of heading up

towards this direction I was like you

need to flip this Red Zone we broke down

and I think like ideally like people

just need to be patient here I I think

you have a breakdown coming but I think

it's into this 53k range a lot of people

are probably like oh everything gets

wrecked I I don't think things get

wrecked that much like things are pretty

much demoed at this point holding

supports doing pretty well um I think

like people need to to take this and

look at it like as glass half full not

glass half empty we are going into what

should be considered the final leg of

this bull run um

2025 a lot of people are in disbelief

again a lot of them are new participants

they're not people who have been here

for multiple cycles and I think if

you've been here for multiple Cycles you

know how this works you know how that

you know how this this game is played

you know how the fouryear Cycles work I

know a lot of people like oh foure cycle

different ET no no

for the the people that have been in

this since the beginning they they're

entrenched they're not they're not

getting weeded out by anybody like it

doesn't matter how many hedgies come in

like they they have their POS they have

their positions they have large

positions and I'm pretty sure they're

not going to let any of those go they

may be playing some of this you know

lower time frame [ __ ] on The Daily

time frame but ultimately you know I

I've been direction of down as far as

the conversation go since we broke this

range and when when we broke the 60k

range I'm like okay this shit's cooked

we're going to probably stay relatively

in this range for a while we're not

going to be shape recovery and that's

what we've kind of seen play out but

ultimately this is what I'm looking for

for directionality I just think it may

be more painful than a lot of people are

willing to kind of hang out and watch

play out right it could be something

like this for for instance where we just

kind of do this you know for a

while and then take a long time to kind

kind of recover out of this range

whereas a lot of people right now they

they a lot of people's anticipations are

that this thing ends up coming down to

like 30k or down to like low 40s and

like there's no imbalances that support

that that I can see across the board

there's absolutely no imbalances that I

could see that are supporting

Bitcoin sorry give me a second breaking

in that direction

I mean you had this breakdown that

basically encompassed the entire move

like look at the weekly here I mean here

I'll just clear the whole chart make it

simple for people it's not a hard hard

thing to understand you retap liquidity

it's been tapped what are your

expectations here I think we'll probably

get a retest to the low

here that's basically it and then from

there a lot of people are going to look

for this thing to continue to get cooked

but in reality you'll probably bottom

around here that's that's my thoughts I

I don't think you're going to I don't

think you're going to come back and fill

the wick that that's the thing that a

lot of people aren't getting and the

reason I don't think you're going come

back and fill the wick is you know same

reason we didn't come back and fill this

Wick these were the takeoff ranges right

same reason we didn't come back and fill

this Wick these were the takeoff ranges

and I think ideally we're probably

looking at something similar here where

a lot of people are wanting this Phill

or this lower low to where they can get

a much better entry you do you know why

people want a better entry

Max do do you you want to know why

because most people entered up

here you really think most people

entered up there I think majority of

people entered up there because this is

painful right but like our entries are

obviously much lower like we've been

yeah pretty much in this market for you

know fully deployed aggressively

aggressively deployed for

I mean at least over a year now at this

point and I feel like that was when most

I mean I know new people have come into

the space but you really think most

people entered up there like most

participants that are still around

entered up there I think most people

that are crying on the timeline most

people that come in and talk [ __ ] and

say we're going much lower entered much

higher than than what a lot of us did

because like I started entering here

continued entering here and then told

people hey this is the low here nobody

believed it and then

boom straight to 72k swing right yeah

and then from there we' just been doing

this and all you've seen from people on

the timeline oh the the price the price

help me somebody I'm down 90 you're down

90% because you just entered the game

that's that's why you're down

90% you haven't been you haven't been

playing this game the whole time A lot

of people are in that in that position

they want went so badly for some kind of

like better price for their entries

right they went so badly for that

re-entry all this spells is a new bare

Market it doesn't spell a retrace it's

not a retrace it's a new bare

market and I don't think we're going

into a new bare Market going into 2025

and I don't think there's going to be a

capitulation event like Co that's going

to send us all the way down to 30k

absolutely do not I I think that's

that's just complete Insanity like

here's here's the first thing as a as a

person who who does ta you have to

respect the levels you have to respect

the levels you have clear levels of

support ranges that you have to respect

before you can even entertain lower

pricing right before you can even come

in and say hey we're going

deeper like there's just there's so many

ranges that have to be respected here

for a downside that you have to be like

all right first we have to get to here

and then if we break there we can come

to here and then if we break there we

can come to here and then if we break

there we can come to here you can't just

tell people on a timeline hey guys 40K

by

October like that's that's literally

just guessing you're you're not nobody

here is a magician nobody here is a uh

you know a fortune teller nobody on the

timeline on Twitter is why the hell are

people even discussing these

prices like you you have clear clear

clear levels that have to be you know

basically violated before you can sweep

lower

levels that's basically it is what it is

you know I don't make the rules I just

follow them following the rules means

what it means follow this down level by

level and you know as we continue to

capitulate understand okay are we going

into a bare Market or are we staying in

a bull market and ideally if we break

this range I think we're going into a

bare market and guess what lights out

guess what I'll cut my positions not

worried about it I'm still up the rest

of you probably down significantly on

your pricing down significantly on your

portfolio again it's it's it's not a

hard concept I just I think people need

to just really kind of ideally look at

the current

range understand the range and just be

patient be patient with this like it's

it's a patient game look it again we can

ignore the wick we can literally sit

here and just it's a patient game it's a

patience game that's all it is it's one

of those games that literally will sit

there and chop you out cycle by cycle

and play you every single time with

boredom it I did the same thing over

here remember this range remember this

range Max yeah I do I remember that I

was just talking about that one too like

it's uh that was a tough Range man it it

just it just took so long right it felt

like you were never going to you were

never going to exit that's what I

remember about it was like every day we

would just wake up and it would just be

like the tightest little range you've

ever seen you know all people kept

talking about was the sweep that's all

they kept talking about they kept

talking about the sweep that was going

to occur right

here where's the sweep there The Sweep

in the room with us that's all I can

tell people man like you got to

understand like structurally you have to

respect these levels I understand like

there's potential for us to go deeper

like I I've been bearish I talking about

it on the show I've been beish but I

I've also been bidding when I see

opportunity to do so like I bid

yesterday price is down okay I'll bid

again if it goes to 53 like I I'm fully

expecting this Market to completely

reverse back to the

upside regardless of you know depth I I

think your lowest position that you

should be hoping for praying for if

you're

sideline um the lowest you should be

praying for is like 48 right that's the

lowest you should be praying for because

I think ideally if you break this

structure and you start heading back

into this range you have good a really

good chance to really just start

downtrending a really good

chance and not and not turn back

around so I think people need to start

here with 55 right 558 that's where I

think price is already heading and then

if you break break 558 look for 48 and

then if you go deeper than

that find another job right find another

job maybe find life insurance you know

if you're feeling a little funny um

because you you might just be cooked But

ultimately this this is this this would

be my cut this would be my cut I'd be

cutting um and a lot of you like well

you be cut the bottom that's the bottom

no no I they give you break below that

structural you're you're cooked um I

think you'll come down probably and and

here's the thing I won't cut the

breakdown I'll cut the retest I'll cut

the retest while everybody's cheering

that it's coming back up because that

that's typically how to it's the same

thing over here when they came back up

again structurally boom boom and then

retest break out come down come back up

retest again before the actual breakdown

came back up fake retest breakdown

retest break down break down break down

but here's here's the thing I would tell

people and I'm not I'm not trying to

sound cocky guys like I just I've been

doing this for a long time it just it

gets tired and trying to teach people

and they think I'm being cocky about

what I'm saying I'm just it's experience

right I'm not speaking from like

confidence I'm speaking from experience

just understanding what's going on here

um I would say like this right here

right falling wedge or sorry fall uh

bull flag tight play this was the worst

range ever this was the worst range

ever because you never knew when the S

was going to stop going down it was just

absolutely painful you know why I bid

this range you want to know why I bid

this

range I just did my typical ta thing

right what's my typical ta thing RSI

bottomed RSI doing the opposite of what

the chart's

done that means the lower we go the

heavier the bid the heavier the bid the

lower we go a reversal is incoming do I

know where

no so with that being said like you just

you have to kind of be able to read

these things as they are understand them

and just you know I I would say it's

almost like it's not it's not

necessarily blind bidding but it's just

bidding what you've seen before right

bidding experience that's it your your

bidding experience so when you go to a

job you you learn experience and then

when you get 10 years experience why do

you think they pay you a lot of money

they pay you a lot of money because you

had the experience you you've seen all

the negatives and the positives you know

all the bad and the good at your job

that's that's why they pay you more than

what a new person would get it's the

same thing with ta once you've seen

scenarios play out multiple times you

kind of have expectations for how they

should react in a certain range does it

always work out no it's a probabilities

game that's what it is a probabilities

game so I can't 100% say this is this is

what's going to happen but I can

confidently say which means that I'm

pretty confident which I think it's a

high percentage chance that these these

are the things that are going to happen

that well that that's um that's actually

an interesting thing that you just

mentioned about like it being a

probabilities game I think a lot of

people um they fall into this this this

mindset it's like a warped mindset that

some people out there know with

certainty what the Market's going to do

and others don't know what it's going to

do right

there are simply two groups of people

there are those with experience like

you've talked about will there are those

with experience that

have basically learned

to they've learned to basically

attach probabilities to situations in

these markets better than other groups

even somebody that can look at the

market and go I think there's a 51%

chance that this is going to play out is

doing much better than most right

yeah over various time frames I think by

next next 10 minutes the the chart will

do this I think you know the next uh

week the market will do this I think the

next month the market will do this and

if you can basically skew it in your

favor based on your experience and the

research that you've done to attach a

probability of it being slightly greater

than not that it works out in your favor

you're going to do just fine over a long

period of time right amongst a a myriad

of other skills necessary to to invest

in markets right but that's the thing is

like a lot of people that are beginning

they look at guys that have been around

in these markets let's use somebody like

will as a prime example Will's been

investing for well over a decade and

he's older than most of the people that

are probably watching the show he's kind

of the BB Dad okay I kind of I joke with

him about that but he brings a lot of

wisdom to the table because he's been

through through so much [ __ ] you know

he's traded so much garbage over the

years stocks crypto whatever that he's

able to look at things and attach

realistic probabilities to it but a guy

like will doesn't have a crystal ball

like he doesn't know what's going to

happen but he knows roughly what the

percentage chance of something happening

is within reason right which makes him

over a high time frame good at trading

or good at investing right and that's

the thing is like you have to be able to

accurately assess the market so will has

a drawing here right like he's got a

couple different levels on his chart and

he's like look you don't really have too

much to worry about right here here's

your level right so like right now will

I'm assuming you probably attach like 55

to 75% chance that we kind of hold that

that yellow line and move up over the

next year and there's a less than 50%

chance that we would lose that yellow

line and move down and be cooked right

so it's like and and I don't mean to put

words in your mouth right I don't know

what the actual percentage is I'm just

kind of speaking in like general terms

to to the point but it's like all

investing is is just learning hey this

is probably GNA happen this is more

likely going to happen than is not going

to happen and then just placing your

bets and then just hoping that it works

out that way you know so it's um it's a

tough game right but that's the toughest

part about it is just like

is just placing bets and just being

realistic about it right because we all

kind of marry a bias and especially

during periods of low and chop like this

where this this price action is

miserable right it becomes more

difficult to read and attach realistic

probabilities even on the higher time

frame to the market because there's so

much static and noise right like you see

a local selloff and you're just like oh

like now it's making me feel a certain

type of way and I don't know about the

higher time frame because the one hour

candle sold off like it it the more

noise the more chop like the more

painful right like that's that's the

truth is like it makes it harder to read

and attach probabilities you know but

anyways I just want to put that out

there like nobody knows for sure but

there are those that understand how to

attach probabilities to situations

better than others and that just comes

with time and experience right yeah yeah

like and this is why like it's difficult

for somebody who's 18 they they can

understand the game and how it's played

but they haven't got the experience to

to know that hey sometimes this thing

fakes out you know the probability here

is much less lower than the probability

of like a bull flag or whatever right

and and so they they attach that it's

that it's a bullish pattern but they

don't attach that it has a less likely

scenario of playing out versus another

scenario and and this that's that's

where the experience comes in the

experience comes in with you know what's

the pattern what's the likeliness of the

pattern and then have we done this

before right that's that's the looking

at the past I that's why like I don't

even bother really much with fractl

because I just look at past history I

look at the current pattern I look at

the levels that we're sitting at are we

close to support are we close to

resistance I'm like all right what do we

do what do we want to do at this range

do we feel comfortable do we want to bid

or do we want to sell and I like right

now bidding because I think we're near a

bid range so and and if we go deeper we

go deeper it is what it is like again I

don't make the rules my probabilistic

trades cost me right they'll either make

me money or they'll lose me money that

that's that's what the audience has to

understand here like when I'm putting

things out there it's because I'm I'm

actively doing them so if if if price

goes down from my buy you could LOL I

lost money but ultimately I may see

something you don't right that's why I'm

bidding it it's not necessarily that you

know I didn't see that there was

potential for for draw down it just I

think that we're at the range where

people should be looking at this as an

opportunity and not a oh [ __ ]

scenario yeah and guys what I what I

have right here I just want to show you

is this is from January 1 like this is

perfectly on January 1st right here um

this is a yearly volume profile and a

yearly vwap okay um you can see right

here like I have it I just shaded it in

green so it would be a little easier to

see like right up in here um this region

this is your value area high and value

area low this is your value region this

is where basically within basically

within two standard deviations of of the

mean all of your transacting has

occurred for this year right like that's

that's what this is showing you um and

we are still trading within value and

the best time arguably to buy

something is or to short would be

shorting your value area high or within

this region and longing within your

value area low now granted you can get

big deviations and stuff like that

but you know betting on you know breaks

of value on the higher time frame like

you make a lot of money when it happens

right because you break out above you

know your value you get a rapid

expansion typically right similarly like

if you lose this and like you actually

lose it you're going to get a big

expansion to the downside right but 80%

of the time price is going to just kind

of pingpong between value right and then

20% of the time you're going to see a

big expansion or you know a break of

value so I'm looking at this and I'm

like all right you know

this this is more or less your bid

region right I like this region this is

an interesting area for me to transact

in this is an area to be cautious in

right this is an area to be cautious in

so I just wanted to point this out that

like yeah you know it we go down to the

the F minute chart it looks

terrible right it looks terrible but I

don't know I mean you are roughly you

are within value your your yearly value

area and you are approaching the value

area

low so I don't think it looks too bad on

the higher time frames I

mean you know some things that we need

to look out for though are like we do

have Cuts coming up very very soon right

so uh let's pull let's pull up the

Federal uh effective federal funds rate

and I'll I'll save these drawings and we

can we can come back to them so this is

yearly vwap plus volume profile we'll

come back to

this oops where did that

go um I on spy though what's that I'm

bearish on

spy like locally or high time frame

locally yeah I mean I can see a pullback

could see one no but I I think I think

it's got a pretty decent one 50 I think

it's 5450 like if you look at the run

run the daily on that on spot yeah and

then look at that

Gap oh you want these gaps cleaned up

down here yep yeah I could see just the

daily one the daily one is all I'm

looking for but then well I I got to ask

you what about you know something like

this cuz like we we did have kind of

like a similar buyback like big V

recovery you know what I

mean those never got filled do do do the

daily so I'm only looking for

5450 so like this first one the top one

yep the top one that's it all not so bad

that' be healthy I mean it wouldn't be

the worst thing in the world that's

fine yeah I'm looking for that to really

get people kind of shaking up a little

bit but see I would say like you here

let me

um let me go to the stocks here I'm only

looking right now for local local gaps

I'm not looking for uh far away gaps at

the

moment I don't really think it makes

sense to get

bearish um I would say until like this

level is lost right

here like that's that's the thing though

like I I could see this here's the thing

like if we want to look at this in a

different way right like we

could without question be doing

something like

this and this could be this could be the

start of that right like it could be but

I'm just like you technically are right

on top of support

you know like yeah you're right on top

of support like I don't know if I

would I mean I don't hate the RR here

because like the invalidation is

literally a new all-time high right it's

like if you wanted to get short which

I'm not I'm not playing equities right

now but like if you wanted to get short

this would that's not a bad setup like

invalidation is a new alltime high right

yeah yeah exactly like your your your

invalidation is so close you won't you

won't get wrecked too badly you you can

cut that [ __ ] as soon as it breaks all

time am I um I I think that looking at

it like that's what I would look for I

wouldn't even look for all I'd just look

for a break above 5650 if you got a

break above 5650 I think it's bullish

right it's going to start moving to the

upside but I think if you stay

relatively where you are now and

continue to form these lower lows on The

Daily structure you're you're going to

you're going to break down into that 54

I I'm I'm just I'm a hefty believer on

daily plus time frame daily plus time

frame gaps uh especially

locally like it's a pretty local daily

plus time frame

Gap this is a scary chart to want to

fade though I mean I see it getting

shallower right like I I

see I see it getting shallower right

like there was your you know first

pullback second pullback yep like we

might be doing something like this where

then you know maybe you go up like this

and then you know you correct and then

you you know it could just take like so

long you know but you can kind of see

the the you could see us losing a little

bit of steam right it's like you know

like this and smaller smaller smaller

and then it rolls over right and that

that same phenomenon happened the loss

of

momentum that happened during the bare

market right here right so let me

actually just flip it so it looks the

same so you can see during the bare

Market this is the bare Market flipped

right you kind of like shallow out you

know like you just kind of you just kind

of lose

steam um and there's just kind of here

I'll actually just flip back so it's

like big drop Big Bounce big drop bounce

drop and then you just kind of like you

just like don't have enough bounce to

keep going like I know that's not

actually like a technical term I'm just

trying to show you that like it's

momentum right it's momentum so I'm like

this is kind of a it looks like we're

you know like we're losing a little bit

of steam you know it's

like you know it's not going to be quick

right it's not going to be

quick the the best time frame for

Bitcoin though the entire time that

we've been watching it I I'll just say

it to the audience and just keep this in

the back of your head has been the

weekly it has 100% been the weekly the

weekly called the bottom the weekly is

called every move the weekly called the

double bottom on 25k the weekly for

everything on bitcoin and I'll tell you

on the weekly on bitcoin right now

stochastics

floor uh your leverage positions look

like they're starting to Veer up so

they're starting to you're starting to

get people taken on a little bit of risk

and you're just sitting right at the 50

right now on the RSI so like Bitcoin is

looking like it's it's getting very

close to locally bottoming right like I

think people got to really take that in

consideration does it become a balce

into some kind of uh and some kind of

selloff possibly right that's what we

got last time but I think there's a a

big bounce coming for Bitcoin um I

just here's the thing that I would tell

people from if if you go Max to the

bottom there and look at 17K Bitcoin and

that God candle that went straight up to

21 and everybody said it's fake it's

going to

reverse you're talking about like on on

the weekly

you're talk about this one yes yes

pretty much a full engulfing candle of

the entire

move

and once Bitcoin gets to that low volume

pretty much no trading move which is

basically where we're at now we're just

kind of like barely up and Downing right

you can barely find buyers and sellers

right now you get you get these little

pukes here and there but you're barely

getting buyers and sellers

once we get to that

point everybody's I I think a not

everybody but I think a lot of people

will be sadland I think a lot of people

are just looking for for such ridiculous

numbers when it comes to downside that

they're they're going to look for that

that scenario to play out for lower like

10K Bitcoin they were promised and uh

bitcoin's going to bounce somewhere it's

locally here I think you know anywhere

between 53 and 48 I think I think that's

your bottom man like if you're going to

sweep anything that's that's what you're

going to sweep and then from there

you're just kind of

up just such so much accumulation right

here yeah 30k 30k is a new like floor

floor like you're you're not coming back

below that but I think in time once

Bitcoin breaks out of this range look at

how much accumulation we' done where we

are Max like if when Bitcoin breaks out

of this range that will be the new floor

100

%

um

VSP hang on uh visible range volume

profile yeah I mean here's the thing

Pier saying like you can have plenty of

sellers but do you have plenty of buyers

right you you need somebody on the buy

side to be able to sell right you you

always need you need buy yours to be a

sellor and so what they have to do in

crypto I I'll just explain kind of the

process and why we get these erratic

moves is they have to create buyers how

do they do that well they they move the

market to the upside and then sell it

off then they move the market to the

upside and then they sell it off then

they move the market to the upside and

sell out that's how they're creating

buyers right they're creating buy

positions but when you get structured

price action which is down and to the

right not just down it's different than

having down price action like if you

look at it go up to uh November 2021

Max real

quick it's the

top so November of 2021 look at how that

market just D just dumped right there's

there's no structure to it it just

dumped straight into like

30k yeah I mean you basically had like

the world's greatest bear trap or sorry

bull

trap like that was

brutal but look at the price action this

I'm I'm trying to teach the audience

like look at the price action here just

straight down right that's how you know

when you're going into a bare market

look look at look to the left over there

where we topped over at the beginning of

2021 Max it's the same thing we

literally Drop pop and then just go

straight

down like there there's no there's no

playing around when this [ __ ] hits a top

like the market just absolutely gets

obliterated when the bare Market comes

if we were in a bare Market I would I

would wholeheartedly expect this type of

price action guys like and I don't

expect this and see this is the thing

too is like this move right okay let

let's talk about this so when you're at

a high time frame top right you do this

same kind of move every single time

let's highlight a few of them okay so

build long go

short up down up down we're in an

uptrend right then you get a break of

structure so I'm going to stop it right

here and here let me actually make my

candles a different color just so you

can see the green a little bit

better

okay I'll make this even

bigger and I'll make it lime green you

should be able see that uptrend and

then I'm going to just draw it with this

you get a break of structure to the

downside right like very very clear

after a trap right there's a an actual

trap that gets set right here

okay Max that was my cut I told

everybody when that broke that low it's

done I was like structure is broken I'm

like you at this is like go look at a TA

book I just go look at a TA book they

will tell you this structure exactly

this structure exactly and then you

bounce into that and then you bounce

into this right I know it's easy to do

in hindsight but like let's let's take a

look at it right like let's let's even

go the second you break your lows and

you stop forming higher lows you're

you're cooked like how about this one

same exact thing will right but you

build long into it though Max you build

long into it we we didn't build long

into our current price action no we've

been building short that's it look at

this same thing same exact thing right

we'll just do like I want to just show

you that like we haven't

seen we haven't seen our high time frame

top unless this is a brand new style of

topping structure that I've literally

just never seen before

right look at this same thing

69k right now I'm I'm pretty zoomed in

so you

can't but whatever you'll get the point

like very clear up too

though right and then look at this

no the low though the Low Max look look

at where they broke the low highlight it

again oh yeah yeah yeah yeah hang

on broke the low there and then

highlight at the top where they br the

low right right at your green arrow

right

there right where they bur the low so

I'm just saying like you see the same

kind of topping

structure time and time again right and

then you know how about even how about

even this right even this one

and then look at

this yeah and then we had down here we

had your break of

structure and up here you had your

top uh and if you look at where we are

now it's only been lower lows and lower

highs there's been there's been no build

long guys there's no they have no like

both of these structures build long and

then drop right there's no build long on

our current structure it's only been

build short they're building shorts to

go long they're either building long to

go short or they're building shorts to

go long this is building shorts to go

long it's yeah angled right it's it's

cons it's structured price action that

that's what I've been like I I I'm

trying to I've been trying to pound this

into people's head structur price Action

Falls gradually right absolute nukes are

like what happened in 2021 on both sides

of that market it just went straight

down and well let me let me even show

you let let me even show you this man

like let me even show you like zoomed in

man like like look at you even like you

get even like you get like a fake like

even if it's tiny right you get the

market maker trap up top right and then

you know you're going to get I'd

probably call this like your break of

structure right yeah and then retest and

then roll yeah exactly right so you it

wasn't a huge trap but you still got one

right yeah so then how about even like

this one right here right like super

locally right like you get this trap

right here and then I would say you got

the same thing this probably your break

of structure right here it's gonna

always be off your highest low and then

you know you had kind of two of them it

was messy right but you still still you

still had it right so I'm like you could

you just find this everywhere right like

you just you just find it

everywhere um and then you know you how

about right here right let's look at

this one before this huge selloff I

remember trading this one right here you

go trapped everybody trap right there

multiple times and and then lower hide

the traps after that and then hold it

like let's let's just keep it moving

let's let's just let's just keep it

moving right and then I'd say you had

your real break of structure I mean you

could argue you had one like right here

but I'm going to just be conservative

and say this is when it was like

officially over right you could kind of

Mark it wherever you

wanted but like look at

this like see it it just so they when

you look at the the current price

action right it's actually more similar

to like an inversion of this right you

see what I mean like like look at look

at this price action right here this is

what we're seeing right now there was no

bull trap here like you see what you do

you guys see the difference here look at

this set of price action right here

there was no if if this had

done

this then it could have been over right

you got your you got your trap

you see what I'm talking about there

will like yeah what we're in is more

like this set of price action where

we're like you know we're just falling

and bleeding but it's actually a

reaccumulation and then you're

eventually going to break up like like

this you see what I mean that that's the

difference

so well here here's the thing too um

when you're when you're done cooking if

you can kick it over Max yeah and like I

just wantan to

like guys if this was going to be like

the top we would have done literally

what we've done every other like it

unless this is a brand new style of top

that I've just never seen before what

you would have seen up here is you would

have seen one of these sets of highs

they would have they would have finished

the job they would have run it up

here High yep new all-time high and then

you would have seen a break of structure

you know down in here

and this price action would have looked

more

like it would have looked more like this

okay it would have looked more like this

right and then you would have

[Music]

seen then you would have seen this right

this is what like a legitimate top would

have looked like okay is like this okay

we would have had a trap up top just

like we've had every other freaking top

and by the the way every single bottom

like look at the FTX bottom right there

look at the usdc crash bottom right look

at these you get that trap either way

like a falling pattern like we're in

right now is not like it like it's

straight up not a bearish pattern like

it is in the sense that you're in a

downtrend right but what we're actually

more like what we're doing okay we're

more like in this this right here okay

but an inverted version of this right

like this is what we're in right

here we're in

this where you're getting you know I

flipped this just so it looks like where

we're at right

now this is where we're in right now

like this okay falling pattern higher

highs higher lows above support right or

like this one

right

here we're more in a pattern like this

hi hi High you know low low low low oh

we're in an uptrend and then it just

gives out right and then it just gives

out and you know it's a reversal when

you get a

trap right and how about how about

looking at it like this just to provide

some perspective here this is inverted

Bitcoin but the FTX

one so look at this FTX was your

trap FTX was your

trap and then you had a break of Market

structure and a

retest yep they retested right into the

range yep you had a break of break of

structure so a new low has been set

right and then you get that

and then it's over right and then you go

straight down it was really straight up

right because I flipped it to show you

guys right and then look like it's it's

the same thing it's it's it just you

just see it over and over and over and

over again right you just you just see

it over and over and over

again this is what I tell people though

whenever they're like oh cell it's it's

breaking down it's like wait if you're

going to sell wait for the retest why

are you selling the capitulation candle

like it price will always retest if it's

truly G to roll again if it's truly

Gonna Roll again it's going to retest

yeah if it's not going to roll if it's

not going to roll again it'll break

through but you're always going to get a

retest of the range never sell the

breakdown ever like it's literally just

the dumbest thing anybody I I like and

I'm telling you this because I've done

it and I I've literally screwed my

positioning multiple times in the past

doing it I've learned a long time ago

when that [ __ ] breaks down let it come

back up when it retests if it shows

weakness sell that [ __ ] sell it let it

break out let it come back and retest

the high as as support and then you're

good to go right if you want to sell you

sell High you don't sell low do not sell

do not sell capitulation ever and today

we're seeing capitulation a lot of

people are having a hard time with it

they're having a hard time dealing with

it and it's it's not like your time to

sell was higher it was higher and I I

did point out out the levels for people

like hey this is where you need to

ideally watch guar it I didn't sell

because I don't give a [ __ ] like I

already know what's coming like and when

I say I know obviously it's not 100%

chance I just I think it's a high

probability chance we're going to see

this cycle play out as all Cycles did

because this always happen um and I

think it's a low probability chance to

think anything

different it it's like saying okay uh

will the presidency happen every four

years yeah until it doesn't right until

they change it

same thing with markets Mark when it

comes to bitcoin Cycles will happen

every four years until it doesn't till

they change it who's going to change it

the market maker the people playing the

big money if they change it then I gotta

adjust it is what it is I get I Get

Wrecked that year because I got to

adjust but until that occurs I'm Not Gon

to assume different I'm just not because

what does assuming do to you and me

Max causes us to make the wrong

decisions will makes an ass out of me

and you

assuming yeah or you and me my bad an

ass out of you and me that's what it

does um that yeah again it's a

probabilities game guys like you got to

understand that I I just I think you

have so much better odds though playing

the market than you do holding dollar um

can I see the the chart real quick Max I

just want to kind of cover some of this

so for those wondering like bearish

patterns they they tend to be like

patterns that go up right up and to the

right up and to the right up sideways

right sideways after a big break like

this literally trap between two zones

reversal um whenever you're seeing

bullish patterns it's down to the right

down and to the right chop down after a

big breakdown chop sideways and then a

reversal right and again down into the

right reversal pattern this is what I

think we're currently in down and this

is a down pattern down pattern up

pattern but this right here is an

ascending so this is a flat top into

Rising price right and then this is a

symmetrical which has potential it's

like a 50/50 play right you don't really

want to play this um and then descending

is is kind of like up price action th

this is again I I keep trying to explain

this to people like when they're wanting

to trap you it's more obvious than you

think right it's more obvious than you

think when they're trying to trap you

it's much more obvious this is the

parabolic Trap right that's the

parabolic Trap this is the parabolic

Trap we haven't gotten the parabolic

Trap yet in my in my perspective because

if we got the parabolic Trap this thing

would have already reversed hard look

one two months and we're or sorry two

weeks and we're already down here right

we're already down

here over here six months literally just

playing to the right that's it like six

months look right here one two 3 weeks

we're here here one two 3 four weeks

we're here in two months we would have

already been all the way we would have

been all the way down here if this was a

bare

top two months not not six months two

months we would have been all the way

down here structurally you have to look

at price for what it is this is Price

Building short to go long right building

long to go short building short to go

long building short

to go to go short will this time's

different this time's different you

wouldn't get it will you wouldn't

understand like it this is like you guys

gota like even this look even look minus

minus the co co never happened this

would have been your

structure right this is the one time the

probability didn't play again it's a

probabilities game it's not 100%

guaranteed this is the one time that

this didn't play and guess what it

dipped down ran back up and filled back

in immediately and it and it kind of did

play well because it it it wasn't a

perfect channel right but like it kind

of did Play Still yeah yeah I mean you

just for your once every hundred years

when the you know when a global pandemic

arises and they have to shut down the

entire economy sometimes patterns don't

work as well sometimes yeah exact

sometimes when you're actually

disrupting the money flow you know you

you can't expect your probabilities to

play out too well for you yeah um but

and that's exactly what happened but the

again this was a bullish pattern and

look what it broke into guys like this

is a bullish pattern and look what it

broke

into that's a big Market again down and

to the right down and to the right down

and to the right down and to the right I

can say it time and time even if this is

all the gas we got left that's still a

lot of gas

that's still a lot of gas whether people

want to want to look at it that way or

not and and this is like I'm locally

barish but I'm high time frame bullish

High time frame bullish because I'm

locally bearish I'm bidding I I'll just

say that well what what's the what's the

region that you're bidding in right here

can you give us some numbers like

between what price and what price are is

that like your area of Interest so I'm

bidding here anywhere's in here and I'm

just buying day by day so basically from

here down to like 55 if I can see that

correctly I mean [ __ ] we can go down to

48 I'll still

bid I'll still bet if it goes as long as

we don't make a new low you're good as

long as we yeah I'm good I'm perfectly

good as long as we don't make a new low

I'm I I don't think we'll go this deep

I'm just saying like incredibly painful

I'm not going to lie to you like to go

back down there again after what we just

had that was a pretty crazy this was

painful and I was bidding this

sometimes the mid region I'm not even

going to [ __ ] sometimes even the mid

region I was bidding this like I was

just like okay could reverse from here

and then boom good big drop right and

I'm like all right I'm gonna bid this

and then like RSI started playing in my

favor which really helped like helped my

mental because this stuff is a mental

game um once the RSI started playing in

my favor I was like okay this this is

the play right here this is this is

where I get in and if you look here at

all this all this draw down we're we're

basically playing into the 50 right

we're playing into the 50 and the 50

used should be very bullish I think

people should be very bullish around the

50 and if we can continue to hold this

on the weekly I think price action here

is fine like if you are buying things

into this range yes it's going to hurt

but I think ultimately if you are

understanding the pattern that and what

the directionality is for the pattern

you're going to do fine again it's I I

can point this even even the most

bearish point in the entire Bitcoin

history that people love that quot go

back and quote what about Co well look I

just showed you the most be [ __ ] you

could ever think of that came out of

Co right or sorry bullish bullish [ __ ]

you can ever think of like th this this

draw down ended up doing this right

again draw down ended up doing this draw

down wherever that may land will end up

being significantly higher you just have

to be bullish here like you can't be

this is not this Market it's not this is

this is this happened in weeks this

happened in two weeks we've been here

for six

months it's not the same it's not the

same the sit in the bare Market it's not

when a bare Market comes you will know

you will know look boom pop pop boom

boom boom literally two months you're

all the way down here right you're all

the way down at 5,800 from roughly 194

you've already lost 75% of your

Market bare markets come fast much

faster than what most people understand

and so when they come you got to be

scared yeah okay but we're not in a bare

Market here structurally we were

building long right on the daily time

frame this is what I saw when I was

looking at 2021 and I was like oh this

shit's [ __ ] cooked because they

started doing this

look they started doing this this this

is where I knew this was

good when I saw this and I'm like oh

hell no I'm like they're going to

freaking wreck these people because I

started seeing the build long pattern

here right and it doesn't matter if you

took it that way if you took it this way

however you want to take it this is a

build long pattern right you don't build

long to go long you build long to go

short and if we look over here at the

chart patterns that I posted

earlier what what what is what does this

pattern right here specifically mean

right it means you're you're you're

going down right it means you're going

down boom right there bearish Rising

wedge this is why I told people you're

about to get cooked over here and then

people like no no there's so much more

in the market super cycle and then boom

what it do it

dropped it then shouldered lower high

after it broke the low basically what

Max pointed out here same thing I saw by

the way once you broke that low you were

cooked once you got the retest you exit

and then boom they run it down now what

do we see

here reversal pattern incoming on top of

support

right reversal pattern incoming oh

they're going to do a run it back boom

retest boom running long again running

long again what are they GNA do with a

run long they're going to cook you right

and then they're going to trade sideways

and then they're going to cook you oh

look another build long pattern guess

what's going to happen drop oh another

sideways no liquidity pattern drop

another build long pattern drop another

sideways sweep sweep

drop death right death what do I mean by

death no trading no volatility

everybody's done they're all done

everybody walk away everybody who's

going to be in Bitcoins in Bitcoin

everybody else walk the

way that was your

bottom I mean granted we can call this

hindsight but like I literally played

this out all the way from 2021 I you

know I played this out exactly as

describing like is it was a pretty

obvious play to be to be honest with you

and I again when you get basically bare

markets they come very fast and they hit

really hard you lose a lot of liquidity

at once we are not doing that we are

structurally moving down and the right

that's a 47% drop in two

weeks this right here

again coming back

down is a 50% drop in four weeks this

right

here is a 20% drop in six

months I can't make it any simpler for

people same thing here look

33% literally months

33% when a top is in you will know you

will know much faster than you think you

will you probably won't even be able to

catch

it and I'm speaking to the audience

specifically because these markets are

tricky man they're tricky when they get

in near tops but ideally I think that

we're not at a top I don't if we if we

get some kind of dip oh I guess another

Black Swan right I guess another Black

Swan we dip below the we di below the

channel but ultimately I'm expecting the

channel to be respected price to

continue to play Within These two ranges

until it doesn't right until we reach

back and I think ideally if we can swing

back at whatever point we swing back up

to the highend range of this channel

we'll probably break out we'll probably

break out wherever that may be it just

right now we're kind of still playing on

the load to

mid-range yeah sorry didn't mean to uh

no that was a cook I was just like I'm

GNA let this man just serve up some stir

fry right now that

is that is it I

mean we're

just it's just choppy guys it's just

choppy that's all but I mean will

painted a pretty clear picture uh pretty

clear picture on what most likely based

on historical data and

probabilities is going to come next

right I will say this too the I have one

more thing yeah before we shut down I

think that's where we're heading

right we're about at that time but you

keep

cooking so I this one to me like

yeah here we go like I'm not saying The

Bu I know me me right me me but these

are always the toughest ranges to bid

right these are these are story like for

all coins these are the hardest ranges

and and and

look what what what would you say like

let's let's take away the fact that this

Zeta we we'll just pretend we don't know

what this is if you were looking at this

pattern and then this breakout and then

this pattern what would you think

Max um I would think that you're

basically coming back into a bare Market

reaccumulation Range High

retest okay is that high time frame

demand High time frame demand

retest so for those who don't know

that's that's that's bid that means bid

that demand is where people are buying

right unless you expect this thing to

truly break down and go to zero this

would be where you been

and I I think there's a lot of charts

that look like this structurally a lot

and I showed right here this is this is

the

2017 top for Ada you lost 98% of your

overall liquidity

98% and then adaa went on to do 11,500

per by the top of the

market 11,500 per. and you guys wonder

why I'm bid in soie you wonder why I'm

bid in sooie right cuz I think people

are dumb I think people are going to

think that this thing is a great

investment they're going to bid the [ __ ]

out of it it's going to run but I'm I'm

not saying Su is the next Ada I'm making

a point on why I'm bidding something new

that got wrecked right I'm bidding

something new that got wrecked because I

think ultimately these markets when they

do come back this is this is your run we

haven't had that run yet again people

saying that mean coins and altcoins and

all this shit's already ran no it hasn't

it absolutely has not and if AA does

what it did again again higher highs you

know percentage draw percentage breakout

you got a cool 2,000% right there go

ahead and do the math right that's cool

20x just saying makes another higher

high that's a 20x and I think like if

people look at these markets like that

they're like okay retest breakout what's

my upside

I I think there's a lot of things that

look really good a lot of things that

look really good even even eth here look

at this one for eth

Max my voice is raspy um so I I actually

readjusted this I did have this more

like this but then I looked at it I'm

like man this is almost

perfect I'm like this is like a perfect

retest right here I'm like if we can

stay in this

range we'll probably do something like

this

and then this and then

that that that's what I think we we end

up playing

out if if not if not to invalidate this

Channel all they got to do is break

above this yellow line that's it they

break above 2900 it's go time but again

are you closer to the bottom or are you

closer to the top you're closer to the

bottom bottom so if you're bidding eth

this is where you bid that's why I put a

big Bo here like if you're just spot

bidding ethereum right even if

hypothetically you got a double bottom

retest of that low that will has marked

out by that red

line it's not so bad to like start

slowly getting into the market here it's

not because you don't here's the thing

you don't know exactly how something is

going to locally bottom right here here

here's what we've identified right

actually will do you mind if I steal the

chart back just just for a second go for

go for it so I want to just show you

guys what I'm talking about so you know

how we were talking about you know last

cycle there were these um it was it was

this type of maneuver here right so here

was your top and then there was your

trap right this is like ultra high time

frame on eth um remember we just we just

did this for Bitcoin right and then you

have a break of structure you know I

would say like this was your your break

of structure something like this I'm on

let's go down to the Daily so you can

actually see it right this big wick

right here was a break of structure and

it was confluent with Bitcoin actually

breaking structure so you had your break

of structure and then you had you know a

decent little Bounce from this low up

here and then we sent it down right so

the point of me showing you this is like

you don't know exactly how something is

going to bottom so for example in my

opinion we right now if I can get my

trading view to

work we are within like here we are

within this trap okay in my opinion we

are most

likely in this

trap right

here and where I think we're going is

you're going to whatever you do here I

don't know right but in my opinion what

you're going to do is you're going to

have a break of

structure like

this all right there's your supply so

you're going to have a break of

structure like

this like this and then you're going to

get a bounce like this and you get that

this is flipped now just to show you

because we've been doing bullish ones

and I don't want eyes to play tricks on

you okay this is what we've been looking

at right so then you're going to get

that break of structure and then you're

going to get that lower high and then

you're G to get this straight down okay

so whatever happens in this box doesn't

really matter this is a local

reaccumulation right we could nitpick it

and go yeah I want you know that low

okay I want a retest of the wick you

know whatever that's fine point being is

in my opinion you're in this box right

like you are in that box box and you are

going to get basically like a break of

structure complacency shoulder bounce

and then it's over right and it's the

same thing that we saw up

here right and it's the same thing that

we've seen I'll show you again here on

eth and then we'll go back to where

we're currently at and

then it's the same thing as right here

right

it's same

thing as right here and then you get

your break of

structure and then you go straight down

right so you see do you see what's going

to happen here most likely is this this

kind of move right I have it flipped

just so I can show you guys right but

that's the move that we're looking for

right and it could be you know arguably

the same as something like this right so

you're

in you're in a downtrend like

this and you get

below you know this

low and here let me let me flip it now

just to show you guys right here you go

you get below that low and then you get

your break of trend again

uh you know and and you could even you

could try to draw something like this

too you know if you wanted to I'll just

keep it like this you'll get the point

doesn't really matter but here you go

right then you get your your deviation

your break of trend and then straight

down that

way you know so it's like in my opinion

like this is where you're at right like

this this is where you're at so like

look at

these this is where you're at you know

so like however it

bottoms I don't know it's never the same

right it's it's never quite the same

like in this instance

here at the all-time high for eth we

didn't get back we didn't go back up and

within the local deviation or within the

high time frame deviation we didn't we

didn't do another one you know we didn't

like make a new high and then go down

right it got front ran

clearly so like let's go over here

now do we need to go all the way down

here no no one knows what's going to

happen in this local box right it's very

hard to say it's very hard to say but

point being is like I think it's a local

box you know I think it I think it's

your local deviation and I would expect

something like this to play

out I would very much

so the the thing is and you could even

see that sorry will you you could even

see something like like this right here

where like this is this is a a daily

time frame order block right here this

could literally be your low you know

like you don't you don't know but this

is a daily time frame order

Block in my opinion within you know a

deviation that when you finally reclaim

and yeah like you you don't really have

to buy down here if you don't want to

like you could very easily wait for like

that red box to flip you could wait for

like 3,200 and then the pull back to

2900 you can totally do that right like

there's nothing wrong with that at

all there's nothing wrong with it I'm

just saying like this is what I'm

expecting something like

this I I here's here's my I guess my my

problem with that

or at least not not not with what you

were talking about but with people

buying higher versus buying lower just

why why do people not just bid the low

range and then just short it to hedge

like I I never understood buying higher

for spot for it to me it's just like you

know we talk about it it is a strategy

that people try to use but if you are if

you were that conflicted with price and

you were on the 5050 Teeter

but you want exposure get exposure and

just short that [ __ ] and then if your

short gets wrecked your short is a 1 to

10 ratio of your spot you're good it's

not a big deal you you you you took the

exposure for the downside to protect the

exposure for upside like cross exposure

is not bad if you're trying to hedge

while volatility is currently occurring

but you have to TP that [ __ ] you can't

just expect for it to keep puking if

just cuz it pukes and you you catch the

short play right and then what do you do

with that positioning well you take the

win that you just got with the short and

you buy more spot lower right and you

still get better exposure like it's it

to me I just I I never understood the

concept that people like I'm just going

to buy when it flips this

range it's like just head your head your

spot head your spot like if you know not

not no like not 100% no but like if

you're conf confident there's a bull

market around the corner HED your

spot that's what I would say be the the

better player I know not everybody can

do that probably but as a Trader that's

the way I would I would approach this

yeah and here's the thing too to

consider though will is like most people

are just kind of like they're more like

in the Buy and Hold Camp which is

actually to be fair what I'm doing right

now because like I do believe that we

are within the next few months going to

be within like the last part of the bull

market and it can last a while right

like it it can last a while so I've

decided to mostly just just buy and hold

like I do a little bit of trading here

and there but like I'm mostly just just

kind of monitoring the higher time

frames and stuff um you know so like

shorting and hedging can be like a very

scary thing or like a difficult concept

for those that are are beginners um and

I actually think for a lot of people you

can kind of fall into a trap of like it

it actually is not that constructive to

be that active like if you can

understand contextually where you most

likely are within like the higher time

frame cycle like you probably should

just you should probably just stick with

that um and just play the higher time

frame cycle and like Buy and Hold good

stuff um but I think the idea of

like you know even you don't have to

short right but like you could you could

hold stable coins instead of actually

shorting right so like instead of being

100% into spot eth here you could be

like 50% and then have 50% cash so you

could take like you know like let's say

this this plays out you know and by the

way I think it I think it will like I

don't know exactly how it bottoms I

don't really care you know but something

like this you could be like you know you

you could

be 50% deployed in the green box and

then you could wait for you know up here

and put the other 50% in if you confir

yeah so it's like you don't have to be

all in or all out I you know I have the

luxury of having you know entries from

lower and like I'm being pretty

aggressive and like I'm I'm personally

like more or less Allin you know um I've

got the ability to like hedge and I can

sell some stuff if I need to but like

I'm I'm basically in you know like I'm

I'm in and I'm riding it and it's not

for everybody right but you know you

could very easy like you could wait for

this like that's no problem like this is

there's nothing wrong with doing this at

all you know but I think the important

thing is just like getting into the

market if you if you're bullish here

because like I'll tell you this like if

you're waiting for lower like if we go

back down to 2000 I know you're not

going to bid it that's the thing like if

you're waiting for that you're not going

to bid it because you're going to be

terrified when we get down there you're

be you're scared now you're terrified

later yeah like I promise you like when

you see that candle before it turns into

a big wick you're not going to be like

on the buttons bidding it it's not going

to happen it I wouldn't do it either

it's terrifying like I don't care how

long you've been in this market that is

terrifying to try to catch that knife

even if you're convicted that it works

you're probably better off just like

slowly entering in a region right that

in my opinion is going to be a hard

strategy to beat when you're in a b

Market is like buying these discounts

where I mean what eth is down what's it

down right now from its high of the year

to current prices 40% to the low almost

50 okay eth is down 40% and we just had

a Bitcoin having in

April you know is this time

different I don't particularly think it

is you know I know there's a lot of

stuff going on but I don't really think

it's

different I don't know man I'm like I'm

looking at alts and I'm telling you like

they look so floored Maxs they look so

they're just waiting for eth will that's

what they're doing they look so Flor

they look floored man like there's so I

have to bid just looking at them I'm

just like dude these things look wrecked

I have to bid some of these yeah they

look too good I totally agree and

like okay let's look at like

here let me see oh I had this drawn the

other day see that's interesting even

though I had this drawn it's like that's

a scary spot to want to bid something

like MOG you know like that that

is that's scary like you want to bid

that h i mean yes right but it's like

this is what Will's talking about is

like this is uh you know this is like

Premier eth beta and it has been all

cycle like that looks weak you know like

and even if that ends up being the

bottom like this is the pattern that has

to play you have to flip it on your eyes

just to just to play tricks on yourself

right but like this is here this is the

pattern that's going to play right here

is like you have you have to flip it to

play tricks on your eyes I promise you

but like this is going to be your

pattern we just talked about this right

like we just talked about how these

things top okay so it might be from here

um I don't know you know either it's

going to be we like we're going to wait

and see right it's either

here

or it's already doing it right I don't

know so let's just say it's here

hypothetically it could be a bigger one

right but remember we just did a bunch

of these examples right so here you are

and you're going to do

this and then you're G to come down and

you're going to break structure like

this and then you're going to curl back

up and then you're going to Nuke right

but I flipped the chart to play tricks

on your eyes right but here is your

break of structure

right and then this is when you get like

the crazy move right or you know the

other scenario here and you know I'm

sure some people won't want to hear this

is you would get the move like

this right so you actually get your

deviation up there like your bear trap

right and funny enough it's actually

going to probably be

above this one too so that's not a bad

level right and let's just say it went

actually let me remove this

uh it would be something like this

right so you come

up chop chop chop whatever whole bunch

of garbage right and then you get that

break of structure and then you get that

retest and then you go down right let me

right so it would look something like

this right and we just talked about all

of these examples right it would

literally just look something like this

right I don't know exactly what it would

look like but like you get the point

right so like this is what you need to

be looking for is like a lot of altcoins

looking bottom like whether it does this

or not I don't I don't know I'm just

showing you like based on examples

that's you know

here let's look at how it let's look at

what it did last time right here's MOG

last time prime example right this is

exactly what I'm talking about okay

ready I have the chart flipped again

just just to remove any biases biases

okay here you

go and you have demand and then

you have like your shift of

structure

right and now this one kind of came up

pretty high right like that came up I

would have expected this to kind of be

your shoulder and then it goes down like

that right but you kind of got like an

you kind of got like a double one but it

didn't get back above you know the low

that was set clearly right but then look

at what happens you get your break of

trend retest this was weird you got a

double but then you know you nuked well

you really pumped right so I would be

looking for you know and by the way this

could be you know like you don't have to

go up here I'm just saying

like like you have to be bullish on on

these charts unless the Cycle's over

right hopefully this

example hopefully this example

uh is all right for you guys but yeah

like it doesn't have to do this I'm just

showing like what it could do

right like Bitcoin like it's just I'm

just not bearish here man like I just I

just am

not I'm just not bearish like we've

we've just went over all the reasons

like I'm just not I'm just not bearish

man like this is going to break to the

upside you're G to get this u-shaped

pattern man that like like this type of

thing will you see what I mean like like

this you know where it just like we

dropped right now we're somewhere in

this region right now it bowls out it

bowls out like the whole it just it just

here I'll just throw a fractal over it

like I can smell this coming from a mile

away man I can I can smell the u-shape

recovery like that's how these things

resolve it's it's going to

be it's going to

be oh wow okay

it's going to be like this okay and we

already had that second drop too like

this okay we at right now it's never

perfect but like you need to understand

like this is this is what's coming okay

it's it's a giant u-shape recovery okay

no no scoot it scoot it more to the to

the left more more more

more yeah right there yeah you're G to

get this and then you might you know you

might get your drop down 2900 or you

might you might just rip like but but

that's coming like your u-shape is

coming here okay like that is real that

is happening it's coming all

right the the thing is even if we drop a

little lower it's not a big deal to me

like I I'm looking at this as value I'm

not looking at as oh [ __ ] we're going to

30k or 20K or whatever these people are

putting on X for engagement farming um

um I'm just I'm looking at up level by

level as a Trader I'm I'm never going to

approach this from to engagement Farm

people I'm going to straight up tell

people what I see and like I I really

think that we're close to the bottom

especially on bitcoin I think like

anywhere from here to 53 to 48 is and

some people like that's a big range

that's a lot if you're buying Bitcoin

yeah yeah it's a lot if you're buying

altcoins they're they're damn near

bottom go look at the charts almost all

of them are damn near like they could

probably go a little lower but a lot of

them are damn near bottom I mean like

look at look at this

guys like we're

just like we're just bottomed man like

it's just

floored like all your eth beta is

literally just waiting like will I know

you

are you are a macd RSI stochastic enjoy

or correct yeah let's look at let's look

at some stuff like this you got a bull

you got a bull Trend going on right

there triple bull will on The Daily like

it's just waiting for eth to pull that

u-shape

recovery um so much eth bet is looking

like this and here let's let's pull up

macd as well like this isn't like Ju

Just just so the a like this isn't like

I know some people like oh just coping

because because price going down bro I I

promise you like I just showed you on

bitcoin how these bulldo play out like

they they are good measures of price

really good measures of price daily

weekly monthly especially and that's

that's a pretty solid bull de as long as

it

holds

yeah you got it on stochastic too which

is pretty interesting someone said total

three check it

out yeah okay I had this drawn from the

other day I tweeted this out

actually

um but yeah we're I'm looking for I have

this Green Dot I'm basically just

looking for like what I talked about

with Bitcoin like I'm just looking

for us to carve out a high time frame

higher low right and I'm hoping that

that's this area because then I want

that market structure break and now

we're in an uptrend right that's all I

want so it's like yeah locally like

annoying we're just sitting here it's

bleeding locally it sucks like nothing

to be excited about here okay but

what it looks like to me is that we're

running out of steam okay and here I

will go

back so this

is Max while you're pulling that up I

have to ask the

question yeah oh no it's too late don't

you uh we lost will

here us 500

we lost will I'm sure he'll be

back

so someone was asking about total

three uh let me make sure I have this

saved okay I do so this to me feels the

exact

same as the type of structure that we've

seen with something this is just a prime

example like price action should be

studied doesn't matter what it is like

it's human psychology on a chart

right like look at this this is what I'm

looking for right this is exactly what I

was talking

about so here we go here's your high

lower high lower high again Lower low

lower low kind of shallow running out of

steam right but we got that break of

structure now we're in an uptrend and

then We're Off to the Races that's what

I'm talking about wanting to see and

expecting to see here with total three

is that we're kind

of that we're kind of running out of

steam right here right and I'm looking

for us to carve out that first in

multiple multiple months that first High

time frame uh higher low right and then

we get a break of structure just like we

did right here right and now we're off

to the races then we're in an uptrend

right that's what I'm looking for it's

really really simple right like it feels

like we're running out of steam to the

downside just like when you look at SPX

in this bare Market it's like kind of a

rounding like like you just you just

don't have the juice left in the tank

right and you know if you wanted to if

you wanted to look at it

and you could literally just do

this

here like

something like

this right like that shift of trend

after being in a downtrend like that's I

just want to see that low hold I want to

see that higher low

hold right that's it and it's it's not

easy right like I was trading equities

in this region like I promise you it

didn't exactly feel like it was a

guarantee that equities were going to

bounce right you had so much fud going

on right around here you had the FED

like still monking around raising rates

you had High inflation you had a bunch

of uh you know macro Doomer spaces going

on it didn't feel there was there were

publishings that like economists

basically had there being a 99%

probability of a

recession um occurring in 2024 right

when we were like right in

here I thought they had that at the end

of 2022 going into 2023 you remember

that [ __ ] like everybody was saying that

and you remember remember remember the

chart remember this chart remember meta

remember what what Facebook was doing

during that time Facebook literally

capitulated guys like look at this chart

during this exact time look at what

Facebook did man meta went

down

77% this was a multi billion market cap

tech

company so it's like looking at this

chart right did you really feel that

confident look at look at when it

happened look at when it

happened it happened right here look at

my crosshairs did you really feel like

bidding while Mega cap tech companies

were like nuking through the floor Fed

was aggressively hiking interest rates

every single day there was an article

about like 7 to 9% CPI and like a

guaranteed

recession like that was not an easy bid

and then you got this little

the little shift of Market structure

that could right the little higher time

frame higher

high and that changed

everything right that was your signal

that was all you needed to

know so all that I know is that it looks

like we're running out of

steam I'm watching for a break of trend

a shift of trend of structure to the

upside

and it may take a little bit but then

you're off to the races one shift of

trend can change

everything one little shift of trend can

change everything tells you everything

you need to know I just want that low to

hold and then we're good

but this is what I'm

prospecting it's a Friday it's an

interesting day but uh I think people

will be glad when all this is over with

that they bid if they bid ultimately

like I I literally just bought the other

day and ate the draw down I don't care

like I I know where we're at and I know

what I'm expecting so dude I am just

taking draw down like a man like that's

just that's the season that we're in

like you will not shake me out of my

altcoin bags while eth is eth is in here

it's not going to happen you either send

this [ __ ] down to like 1,500 and you

give me the death blow because I will

not get shaken out right in here is

simply impossible for me like that is

not

happening that's not not

happening when whenever I'm you you know

what's funny Max whenever I'm the most

fearful on the market like out outside

of when I think there's an actual bear

around the corner right and I usually

run those on fouryear Cycles but um wink

wink 2022 but uh yeah what I do when I'm

most fearful is I go and I look at

charts and I look at what looks

structurally the most bullish and I'm

like okay I want to buy some of this I'm

G to buy some of that and I just start

bidding what I think looks structurally

bullish and adding to my portfolio I I I

don't de I don't deleverage down days I

I try to look and see what especially

big ones I try to look and see where I

can get value out of the Mark it's

because you are a seasoned investor who

has done this before

will this is what's coming right here

all right we got to call it guys we've

been going

forever thanks for being here fun little

Friday stream with uh with me and the

doctor I had fun today will great

hanging out with you man we've we've

only done a couple of these one-on-one

Market checks we did one maybe like

seven or eight months ago I remember it

was fun too now that we're down to a

cast of three I think that we um I think

we might need to just do like a Max and

will Friday stream or something like

that like I think I think that might be

the move moving forward but guys thanks

so much for being here before you guys

go please like And subscribe I'm not

going to show you our BB products today

because the Market's a pile of crap so

I'll leave you guys alone but if you

enjoyed the stream and you want more

access to me and will and the rest of

the BB team just check out the links in

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actually would say it's really great

value we work really hard at it so um I

won I want to ask you to do it because

the Market's down but you know if you

want to check it out we got some good

stuff but anyways guys thanks so much

for being here please at least like the

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Monday everybody have a great weekend

take

[Music]

care wait right