What does a deeper look at the Budget 2024 maths reveal?

MacroSutra with Radhika Pandey
26 Jul 202427:44

Summary

TLDRIn this episode of Mutra, Deputy Editor Sharad Ragavan and Associate Professor Radika Pande dissect the intricacies of the recent budget. They discuss the balance between fiscal consolidation and expenditure, with a focus on increased revenue expenditure and steady capital expenditure. The conversation spans tax revenue projections, the quality of government spending, and the fiscal deficit target set at 4.9%. They also touch on the government's shift towards reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio and the implications of factor market reforms.

Takeaways

  • πŸ“ˆ The budget projects an increase in revenue expenditure by 55,000 CR compared to the interim budget, while keeping capital expenditure the same at 11.11 lakh CR.
  • πŸ’Ό The government received a higher-than-anticipated dividend from the RBI, providing additional fiscal space of around 1.5 lakh CR, which influenced the budget allocations.
  • 🏒 There's a strategic balance in the budget aimed at accelerating fiscal consolidation while also boosting spending, with a tilt towards the former.
  • πŸ’Ό The employment incentive scheme and PM AAS yoga are among the areas receiving increased funding in the budget.
  • πŸ“‰ The net tax revenue projection for the central government has been reduced by around 18,000 CR compared to the interim budget, with states receiving a larger share.
  • πŸ“Š The gross tax revenue projections for the year are similar to the previous financial year, with a slight reduction in corporate tax expectations due to subdued company profits.
  • 🌐 The nominal GDP growth assumption is conservatively set at 10.5%, which could provide a cushion for tax revenue if it surpasses this estimate.
  • πŸ”½ The fiscal deficit target for the year is set at 4.9% of GDP, with plans to reduce it further to 4.5% in the next financial year.
  • πŸ“‰ There's a reduction in the government's reliance on short-term borrowing, which could help in reducing market yields.
  • 🌐 The government is shifting its focus from just meeting fiscal deficit targets to reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, indicating a new fiscal policy framework.

Q & A

  • What was the main focus of the discussion in the video?

    -The main focus of the discussion was the analysis of the budget, particularly the changes in revenue and capital expenditure, tax revenue projections, and the government's fiscal consolidation strategy.

  • How did the post-election budget projections differ from the interim budget projections?

    -The post-election budget showed an increase in revenue expenditure by 55,000 CR compared to the interim budget, while keeping the capital expenditure the same. The government used the additional RBI dividend to increase revenue expenditure and reduce the deficit.

  • What was the additional revenue expenditure allocated for in the budget?

    -The additional revenue expenditure was allocated for employment incentive schemes, increased allocation for PM AAS yoga, and financial assistance for states like Bihar and Andhra Pradesh.

  • How did the tax revenue projections for the full year budget compare to the interim budget?

    -The gross tax revenue projections were broadly the same between the interim and full year budgets, with a slight reduction in net tax revenue to the central government, which was compensated to the states.

  • What was the projected growth rate for income tax and corporate tax collections in the budget?

    -The projected growth rate for income tax was around 13.5%, which was considered realistic. The corporate tax growth rate was scaled down to 12.8% from the interim budget's projection of 14.5% due to subdued company profits.

  • What was the nominal GDP growth assumption in the budget, and why is it considered conservative?

    -The nominal GDP growth was assumed to be 10.5%, which is considered conservative because it assumes a real GDP growth of 7% and a GDP deflator of 3.5%. This is seen as conservative because recent trends show WPI and CPI inflation rates that could push nominal GDP growth higher.

  • What was the government's target for fiscal deficit in the budget?

    -The government targeted a fiscal deficit of 4.9% of GDP for the year, which is a step towards the fiscal consolidation path with a target of 4.5% for the following year.

  • How did the budget address the issue of borrowing and debt?

    -The budget aimed to reduce reliance on short-term borrowing and increase long-term borrowing to manage debt more effectively. It also indicated a shift in focus from targeting a specific fiscal deficit number to reducing the debt to GDP ratio.

  • What was the government's approach to factor market reforms as discussed in the budget?

    -The government announced a new economic framework that would include factor market reforms such as land and labor, with an emphasis on collaboration between the central government and state governments. The budget also tied a portion of the capital expenditure allocation to the implementation of these reforms.

  • What was the audience's question regarding the government's commitment to the new tax regime?

    -The audience questioned why the government was not encouraging public investments by increasing ATC limits, given its commitment to the new tax regime. The response indicated that the government was nudging people towards the new tax regime, which does not have many exemptions and deductions, and that future incentives would be provided under the new tax regime.

Outlines

00:00

πŸ“ˆ Economic Analysis of the Indian Budget

The video segment begins with a discussion on the intricacies of the Indian budget, focusing on the changes post-elections. The revenue expenditure is noted to have increased by 55,000 CR, while the capital expenditure remains at 11.11 lakh CR. The government's strategy to balance fiscal consolidation with spending is highlighted, with a significant portion of the additional RBI dividend being allocated to boost revenue expenditure. Key allocations are mentioned, including employment incentive schemes, PM-AAS yoga, and financial assistance to states like Bihar and Andhra Pradesh. The conversation also touches on the fiscal space created by the anticipated RBI dividend and the government's approach to managing it.

05:00

πŸ’Ό Corporate and Income Tax Projections

This part of the script delves into the budget's tax projections, comparing them with the previous financial year. The gross tax revenue is expected to increase by 10.8%, mirroring the growth rate of the previous year. The net tax revenue projection after excluding the state's share is also discussed. A detailed analysis of the expected changes in income tax and corporate tax collections is provided, with a focus on the potential impact of subdued corporate profits due to rising commodity prices. The discussion also covers the government's conservative approach to tax revenue projections and the possibility of surpassing these targets, especially considering the robust Advanced Tax collections observed.

10:01

🏒 Disinvestment and Asset Monetization Outlook

The conversation shifts to the government's plans for disinvestment and asset monetization. Despite previous years' underachievement, the budget maintains a target of 50,000 CR for miscellaneous receipts. The potential shortfalls in achieving these targets are discussed, along with the challenges in capital expenditure due to the election cycle and monsoon months. The script also mentions the increase in the state's share and the implications of interest-free loans on the budget.

15:02

πŸ“‰ Fiscal Deficit and Government Expenditure Quality

The script discusses the government's focus on improving the quality of expenditure, with a rising share of capital expenditure as a percentage of GDP. It contrasts this with the declining share of revenue expenditure, leading to a compression in the overall size of the government budget. The fiscal deficit target for the year is set at 4.9%, with plans to reduce it further to 4.5% in the subsequent year. The strategy to reduce reliance on short-term borrowing to manage market yields and the broader fiscal policy framework focusing on debt-to-GDP ratio reduction are also covered.

20:04

🌐 Factor Market Reforms and Economic Framework

The final part of the script addresses audience questions about the government's commitment to factor market reforms, labor codes, and land reforms. It highlights the announcement of a new economic framework that includes land and labor reforms, and the government's intent to collaborate with state governments for implementation. The script also touches on the political implications of these reforms and the government's approach to nudging state governments towards reform through financial assistance.

25:05

πŸ’Ό Tax Regime and Public Investments

The last paragraph addresses questions about the government's approach to tax regimes and public investments. It discusses the shift towards the new tax regime, the incentives provided for it, and the rationale behind not increasing the ATC limit, which is part of the old tax regime. The script emphasizes the government's efforts to encourage a tax regime without numerous exemptions and deductions, and the focus on moving individuals and businesses towards this new system.

Mindmap

Keywords

πŸ’‘Budget

A budget is a financial plan that outlines government or organizational spending and revenue forecasts. In the video, the budget is a central theme, with detailed discussions on the Indian government's financial plans post-elections. The script mentions changes in revenue expenditure and capital expenditure, reflecting the government's priorities and fiscal policies.

πŸ’‘Revenue Expenditure

Revenue expenditure refers to the spending by a government on goods, services, and transfers that do not lead to the creation of future assets. In the script, there's a mention of an increase in revenue expenditure by 55,000 CR, indicating the government's focus on immediate consumption to stimulate the economy or fulfill social obligations.

πŸ’‘Capital Expenditure

Capital expenditure, or capex, is the investment in assets that are expected to generate future benefits, such as infrastructure development. The script notes that the capital expenditure has been kept the same, suggesting a continued focus on long-term growth and development projects.

πŸ’‘Fiscal Consolidation

Fiscal consolidation is the process of reducing budget deficits and stabilizing or reducing government debt. The video discusses the government's attempt to strike a balance between fiscal consolidation and boosting spending, indicating a strategic approach to managing public finances.

πŸ’‘Mutual Funds

Mutual funds are investment vehicles that pool money from multiple investors to invest in a diversified portfolio. The script mentions mutual funds in the context of investment advice, suggesting they are a recommended tool for individuals to grow their wealth.

πŸ’‘Market Risks

Market risks refer to the potential losses that can occur due to fluctuations in the financial markets. In the video, the mention of market risks in mutual fund investments serves as a cautionary note to potential investors about the inherent uncertainties in financial markets.

πŸ’‘Gross Tax Revenue

Gross tax revenue is the total tax revenue collected by the government before any deductions or refunds. The script compares the interim and final budgets, noting that there is not much change in gross tax revenue, which is a key indicator of the government's fiscal health.

πŸ’‘Net Tax Revenue

Net tax revenue is the amount of tax revenue remaining after refunds and adjustments. The video discusses a reduction in net tax revenue to the central government, which is significant as it affects the government's fiscal capacity to fund its programs and services.

πŸ’‘Disinvestment

Disinvestment refers to the sale of government-owned shares in companies to reduce public ownership. The script mentions disinvestment as part of the government's strategy to raise non-tax revenue, indicating a move towards privatization and fiscal consolidation.

πŸ’‘Asset Monetization

Asset monetization is the process of converting underutilized or idle assets into cash through sale or lease. The video discusses asset monetization as part of the government's broader economic strategy to unlock value from public assets and improve fiscal efficiency.

πŸ’‘Fiscal Deficit

A fiscal deficit occurs when a government's expenditures exceed its revenues. The video highlights the government's projection of a fiscal deficit at 4.9% of GDP, which is a key indicator of the government's financial management and its impact on economic stability.

Highlights

The budget projections after the elections show an increase in revenue expenditure compared to the interim budget estimates.

The government received a higher-than-anticipated dividend from the RBI, providing additional fiscal space.

The budget aims to balance fiscal consolidation with boosting spending, with a tilt towards accelerating fiscal consolidation.

The employment incentive scheme and PM AAS yoga are among the areas receiving increased funding.

Financial assistance for states like Bihar and Andhra Pradesh is part of the budget.

Capital expenditure remains unchanged, focusing on maintaining fiscal consolidation.

Gross tax revenue projections are similar to the previous year, with adjustments in capital gains and income tax.

There is a reduction in net tax revenue for the central government, with an increase in states' share.

The budget projects a realistic increase in income tax and a more conservative growth in corporate tax due to potential pressures on company profits.

The nominal GDP growth assumption is conservative, potentially allowing for better-than-expected tax revenue.

The quality of government expenditure has improved, with a focus on capital expenditure over revenue expenditure.

The fiscal deficit target for the year is set at 4.9%, with a plan to reduce it to 4.5% in the following year.

The government's borrowing strategy includes a reduction in short-term borrowing to manage market yields.

There is a shift in focus from targeting a specific fiscal deficit number to reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio.

The budget includes measures to nudge states towards implementing factor market reforms, including labor and land reforms.

The government encourages a shift to the new tax regime, which is more streamlined and less reliant on exemptions.

The budget's overall approach indicates a commitment to fiscal responsibility and structural reforms.

Transcripts

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are you sure here's the 30C lesson on

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what Legends know never ask a bride why

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she's getting married don't wear a skirt

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on a windy

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[Music]

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day dant is not a

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shower don't sniff chil flee and don't

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forget saving is not investing Legends

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don't just save they invest in mutual

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subject to Market risks read old scheme

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related documents carefully hello and

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welcome to this episode of mutra I'm TCA

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Sharad ragavan Deputy editor at the

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print and this time we're going to be

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discussing the budget mats the budget

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happened a few days ago and there were a

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lot of headlines about it a lot of

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interviews but the nitty-gritties of the

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actual numbers in the budget that's what

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we're going to analyze and to do that we

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have with us radika pande associate

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professor at nipfp thank you so much

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radika for joining thank you Sharad but

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before we start I had an appeal to make

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thank you so much and now radika coming

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to the budget how does this budg buget

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projections it comes after the elections

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how do they vary from the interim budget

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projections which were before the

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election yeah so after the elections if

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we see there is there are two more two

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most important changes one is that the

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revenue expenditure has increased as

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compared to the interim budget so uh

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while the capex has been kept uh same

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which is 11.11 lakh CR cap the revenue

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expenditure has increased by 55,000 CR

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over the interim uh budget estimates so

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uh we know that the government got the

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RBI dividend more than anticipated so

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there is an additional fiscal space of

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around rupees 1.5 lakh CR and we

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discussed that earlier that what the

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government would do would it focus more

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on fiscal consolidation or boosting

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spending or a balance or a combination

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or a balance and we see that the

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government has tried to strike a balance

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here and uh you know it's the Tilt is

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more toward towards uh you know

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accelerating the path of fiscal

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consolidation so we see that of the uh

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additional um uh RBI dividend around

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55,000 CR has been used to uh increase

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Step Up Revenue expenditure and the rest

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has been used to reduce the deficit so

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that's the combination and if you look

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at the revenue expenditure the

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additional 55,000 CR a part of it is

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going on the employment incentive scheme

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that was uh announced anounced in the

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budget a part of it is going on the PM

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AAS yoga because there the allocation

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has increased as compared to the interim

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uh as compared to the interim budget and

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then there are few other uh increase and

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there is also there's going to be

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financial assistance for Bihar and Andra

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Pradesh and a few more States so on the

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expenditure side we see that there has

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been an increase of 55,000 CR on Revenue

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expenditure but capital expenditure has

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been kept same now on the uh Revenue

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side the gross tax revenue is broadly

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same uh because what we saw from interim

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budget to uh the ful year budget that

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capital gains tax has been reduced

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whereas uh income tax has capital gains

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tax has been increased whereas income

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tax has been uh reduced the slabs have

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been rationalized yeah yes and then the

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corporate tax on foreign companies has

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been uh reduced so overall if we see

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there is uh not much change between the

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interim budget and the final budget when

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we look at the gross tax revenue uh but

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there is a uh reduction in the net tax

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revenue to the central government there

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is a reduction of around 18,000 CR from

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the interim budget to the full year

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budget and this uh additional is being

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is going to the states so in absolute

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level the uh states share in the uh

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Devolution in the total uh centers taxes

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has increased in absolute levels

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but not in terms of as a proportion of

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the gross tax revenue which is still

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same as 35% which was similar to what

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was in FY 24 remember that the finance

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commission recommendation is 41% 41% of

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the shareable taxes have to be uh given

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to States but what we see is 35% but in

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absolute term there is an increase and

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rest we know is accounted for by cesses

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and sarch charges which are not shared

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with the states right so now sticking to

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the tax uh projections that they have

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for the year uh by how much are Income

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Tax and corporate tax collections

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expected to increase by and are these

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realistic yeah so now when we are

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talking about realistic let's talk in

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terms of you know comparing with uh FY

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24 that is the last year and because we

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have the benefit of the provisional

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actual numbers because this time around

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the government has also released the

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provisional actual uh so we don't need

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to compare with the revised estimates

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which is one way of doing but a better

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way of doing is to uh compare with the

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provisional actuals which are one step

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closer to the final numbers actual final

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numbers yeah though they are un audited

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but they are uh closer to the actual

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numbers so okay so when we look at the

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from the tax side when we see the gross

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tax revenue the uh gross tax revenue is

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likely to increase by 10.8% which is

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similar to what was projected in FY 24

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you know the same growth rate has been

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maintained uh the net tax revenue is

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likely to increase by 11% net tax

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revenue which is after excluding the

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state's share now when we come to income

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and corporation tax you know earlier in

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interim budget the growth was projected

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at more than 14% but now for the final

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uh budget we have seen that the growth

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rate projection for corporation tax has

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been scaled down a bit and uh that is

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because you know today there's a

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statement also that you know the

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company's profits for the first quarter

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have been subdued and therefore they

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have Revis downwards their uh growth

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assumptions for corporation tax for FY

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25 so in the interim budget the

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corporate tax were expected to grow by

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14.5% now they are expected to grow by

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12.8% and there could be challenges on

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corporate taxation front because you

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know profits are now coming under

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pressure the comp's profits are now

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coming under pressure mainly because of

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increase in the commodity prices you

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know commodity prices are uh rebounding

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again so uh on the corporation tax there

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could be some challenge but on income

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tax last year we saw that income taxes

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grew by more than 25% and this time they

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have kept the target at somewhere around

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13.5% which seems realistic even though

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they have increased the standard

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deduction and they have rationalized the

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taxes but on income taxes I think the

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assumptions are realistic because even

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if we look at the uh first quarter

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Advanced Tax collections they have been

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quite robust the other uh important

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Point uh underpinning all this

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discussion is the growth rate of nominal

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GDP right and the nominal GDP growth has

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been assumed at 10.5% which is the same

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which is the same as interim budget and

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uh again it is on a conservative side

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because it assumes a real GDP growth of

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7% and a GDP deflator of 3 and a half%

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which does seem very conservative which

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which seems conservatives because you

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know and GDP deflator is a combination

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of WPI and CPI more so WPI WPI has a 60%

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weight roughly and CPI has 40% weight so

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now we are seeing that WPI is inching up

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you know earlier it was in the

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contractionary zone now it's inching up

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so if WPI Rises if GDP deflator Rises

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our nominal GDP growth uh could surpass

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10.5% and that would again give cushion

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to the tax to GDP ratio so that is again

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something that could support the uh

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assumption so overall the tax revenue

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projections look realistic they look

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conservative the only uh pressure could

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emerge from corporate uh taxes if the uh

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profit margin of companies uh continue

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to remain under pressure due to to the

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rise in commodity prices and on income

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tax uh uh most likely there is going to

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be some sort of balancing between the

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reduction in the due to the tax laab

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restructuring and this ltcg and

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short-term capital gains and all of that

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being raised absolutely and also you

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know the income tax collections have

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been rising because of the change in the

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treatment of dividend distribution tax

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that was introduced in fy21 so we are

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seeing a a surge in collections of uh

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income tax so we do see that that is

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likely to continue and only pressure

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could emerge from the corporate tax okay

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and now the other major thing that a lot

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of people look look at in the budget

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especially recently is what they're

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projecting on disinvestments correct and

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their asset monetization and things like

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that because they went very big on all

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of this uh over the last few years

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there's the public sector Enterprises

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policy there was the asset monetization

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scheme and all of that so what is the

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the Outlook this year yeah so it's

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similar to what they had done in the

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interim budget and now the practice is

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that uh they uh you know give a combined

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category which is miscellaneous receipts

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or other Capital re it's not called

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disinvestment it's not called

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disinvestment it's not called asset

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monetization and they give a uh one

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figure which is 50,000 CR which is

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similar to what was there in the last

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year even though last year they were uh

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they under achieved the target it was

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50,000 CR they achieved around 33,000

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33,000 CR so again they have kept on

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around 50,000 CR so we don't see much uh

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traction happening there and uh there

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could be some again shortfall due to uh

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this uh disinvestment and asset

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monetization the other shortfall could

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also arise due to capital expenditure

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because you know it's again they are

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targeting 11.11 lakh cor and given now

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you know in the first two months capix

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was quite subdued due to the election

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cycle and now only eight months are left

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and even amongst those eight months

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these are the monsoon month Monsoon

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months so we don't see much activity

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happening during the monsoon month and

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also that State's share has been

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increased from 1.3 lakh CR to 1.5 lakh

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CR and that is also a conable part of it

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is tied to the rolling out of these are

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those interest free loans interest free

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loans 50e interest free loans and the

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interim budget were 1.3 lakh CR now it

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is 1.5 lakh CR so there is a challenge

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on the absorption of the implementation

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execution of Big Ticket capital

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expenditure or Big Ticket investment

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projects and uh there could be some

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savings on account of under spending on

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capital expenditure similar to what we

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saw last year last year also there was a

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saving of 50,000 CR the target was 10

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thou 10 lakh CR and there was a saving

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of 50,000 CR okay so now since we are

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talking about uh capital expenditure

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and you mentioned Revenue expenditure

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before that can we say that the quality

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of overall government expenditure has

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improved and the size of the budget also

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if you could tell us a little bit about

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that yeah certainly this uh quality of

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expenditure has improved because if we

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see uh expressed as a share of GDP we

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see that you know capital expenditure as

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a share of GDP has been rising since uh

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uh preco time you know particularly from

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covid onwards we saw that the share of

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capital expend as a share of GDP has

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risen and now it's reached 3.4% of GDP

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and uh correspondingly the share of

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Revenue expenditure Revenue expenditure

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as a share of GDP has been gradually

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declining and uh the uh cumulative

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impact of these two Trends has been that

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the size of the government budget is

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also getting compressed the size of

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government budget can be expressed as a

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ratio of total government expenditure

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upon GDP and if if we look at that ratio

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for uh the current year the total

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expenditure to GDP is uh likely to be

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15% it used to be 16% uh 2 years back

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and slightly higher amount earlier so we

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are seeing a gradual compression of the

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size of the budget the share of capital

play13:47

expenditure Rising the share of Revenue

play13:50

expenditure uh gradually declining

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though in this year's uh budget the full

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budget we are seeing that there has been

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again some reversal of that because of

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the constraints because of the diverse

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expectations of expenditure because of

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new items of expenditure like uh

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employment generation schemes and so on

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there is a slight uptake in Revenue

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expenditure but if we look over the

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medium term we see that the quality of

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expenditure has uh improved and the

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focus has been more towards

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capex okay and now the other metric of

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uh the quality of government spending or

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you know how well it is be doing with

play14:30

its finances is of course the fiscal

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deficit right and uh the government has

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pegged it at

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4.9% for this year which we kind of

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expected they might do but it's still at

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the lower end of what we thought they

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might do we thought maybe 5% yes so

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because we uh you know we were expecting

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a greater chunk would be towards uh

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boosting spending but here what we are

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seeing is that while there has been an

play14:55

increase in Revenue expenditure but

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greater Focus has has been on

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accelerating the path of fiscal

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consolidation so that next year when

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they might not get the benefit of higher

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dividend uh reducing the fiscal deficit

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to 4.5% is not much of a problem for

play15:12

them because FY 26 fiscal defit Target

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is 4.5% so that's why they have tried to

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accelerate the path of fiscal uh

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consolidation from uh 5.1% which was

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earlier invis in the interim budget to

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4.9% of uh G GDP and there also you know

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the borrowing have also been uh lowered

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by 12,000 CR through the issuance of

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dated Securities and what they have done

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very interestingly is that they have cut

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their Reliance on short-term borrowing

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right and which is you know we have to

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place it in the larger context you know

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what we talked about inclusion of

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government bonds and what all sorts of

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implications could arise due to that and

play15:54

we saw that there was an influx of uh uh

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foreign funds and RBI did intervene

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through the sale of bonds so that was

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putting an upward pressure on yields and

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therefore what government has done is

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that it has cut its Reliance on

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short-term borrowing which would have

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the uh objective of which would have the

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consequence of reducing the yields so

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that is one important thing and the

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other is that they have reduced their

play16:20

Reliance on short-term borrowings so

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overall Market borrowing there is not

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much of a reduction through government

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securities reduction is happening on T

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bills and on U the uh small saving

play16:32

instruments right so now since we are

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talking about borrowing and debt the

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government has indicated both in

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interviews and in the budget itself that

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the focus is shifting from targeting a

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particular fiscal deficit number say for

play16:49

example 3% as is mandated by law they're

play16:53

now focusing more on bringing the debt

play16:55

to GDP ratio down right could you tell

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us a little bit more about this yeah so

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if we go back to 2018 when the uh NK SN

play17:04

committee gave its recommendations on

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the new fbm architecture there also uh

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the fbm was amended to introduce debt to

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GDP ratio as an anchor for uh fiscal

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policy because uh prior to that the only

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targets were in terms of the deficits

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fiscal deficit Revenue deficit effective

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Revenue deficit and so on now Focus has

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shifted now from uh you know the what

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the budget speech indicated was that

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there would be a shift from uh focusing

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on a single number of fiscal deficit to

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fixing it at such a level that there is

play17:38

a reduction in the debt to GDP ratio now

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debt to GDP ratio is a stock it's an

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outstanding stock and that requires uh

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you know that you have to bring down the

play17:51

ratio either through increasing in GDP

play17:53

or through reducing reduction in

play17:55

borrowing so uh fiscal deficit has to be

play17:59

fixed in a way that there is a reduction

play18:01

in debt to GDP ratio that's what the

play18:03

government has articulated as the new

play18:06

fiscal policy framework now the next

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logical step should be that they should

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come up with a uh Glide path for Deb to

play18:14

GDP ratio right at least set some

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targets set some Target that you you

play18:18

want to reduce the debt to GDP ratio but

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by how much do you want to reduce it by0

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5% or quarter per of uh how much do you

play18:26

want to reduce it each year that is is

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very important and that should be made

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part of the fbm legislation so that it

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is clear to the various stakeholders to

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households to investors to foreign

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investors and it imparts transparency to

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the fiscal framework already we see that

play18:43

credit rating agencies have given a

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thumbs up to the fiscal framework uh

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announced by the government so the next

play18:49

step should be to have a transparent uh

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Glide path towards the debt to GDP ratio

play18:56

absolutely especially now if there's

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greater scrutiny on because of bond

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inclusion and all of that we need to be

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more transparent absolutely but now

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radika we have a number of questions

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from the audience and now I know that

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there were a lot of you who asked

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several questions but I can take only

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one per person so that's what I'm going

play19:16

to do um a lot of your questions are

play19:18

have probably already been answered in

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the discussion we've had so far and so

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I've chosen the ones that wouldn't have

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gotten covered during the discussion so

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Satoshi asks do you think strong tax

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buoyancy would be maintained in the next

play19:33

few years thanks to the progress in

play19:35

formalization under the new employment

play19:37

linked incentive schemes as well as GST

play19:41

and digitization policies I think when

play19:43

we see tax Bo Andy all the tax numbers

play19:46

that they have projected in for fi25

play19:49

most of them are quite on the

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conservative side and therefore even tax

play19:53

buoyancy is on the conservative side so

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it is likely to be maintained and the

play19:57

government might be able to do better

play20:00

than uh what they have assumed in the uh

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in the budget so yes you know till now

play20:06

tax have been taxes have been B and they

play20:09

are likely to be so in the uh in this

play20:12

financial year itself and collections

play20:13

have uh in the last few years outpaced

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what the budget estimate has been

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absolutely so last year also we saw that

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even they outpaced the uh Revenue the

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revised estimates also there were more

play20:24

than that so that is likely to uh

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continue at least in uh this financial

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year okay and uh Gotham asks isn't the

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exemption given to

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corporates uh on utilizing CSR funds for

play20:40

employment a wrong precedent as this

play20:43

defeats the very purpose of CSR and it's

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getting back to the company itself in

play20:47

terms of an asset yeah so see uh firstly

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the CSR guidelines are formulated by

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Ministry of corporate Affairs and uh

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anything what for what all purposes the

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uh CSR funds can be uh utilized that is

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all provided or mandated by the MCA

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through their guideline now CSR is to be

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spent on some of the important pressing

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problems and given that employment is

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one of the pressing problems I think a

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small proportion you know it's it's

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capped at 10% 10% of the training

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expenses have to be uh can be utilized

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through CSR so I don't see any uh

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problem in that how well it will be

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implemented we'll see we don't have much

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experience on how the these schemes

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would actually work but in terms of the

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intent and purpose I don't see any

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problem with the utilization of CSR uh

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fund because uh if it could be used to

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address some of the address one of the

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major grave problems of the economy

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there should not be any problem no

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absolutely right employment and Skilling

play21:51

is possibly our biggest problem yeah and

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if companies can spend some amount of

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their CSR funds on this and they can

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show that that is that is the that's

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going to be a big social service and

play22:02

that will improve the quality

play22:03

employability and benefit the companies

play22:05

in the long run absolutely adiya asks uh

play22:09

even though the Finance Minister

play22:10

mentioned about the factor market

play22:12

reforms in Her speech looking at the

play22:15

entire speech she does not really talk

play22:17

about the labor codes or their

play22:19

notification or any kind of initiatives

play22:22

on land reforms has the government truly

play22:25

given up given up on its reform agenda

play22:28

for or now due to political compulsion

play22:30

there were some land reforms though yeah

play22:32

so they what she announced was uh that

play22:35

the government would come up with a new

play22:36

economic framework which would uh

play22:39

capture all factor market reforms which

play22:41

would include land which would include

play22:44

labor and the fact that they want to

play22:47

have a collaborative uh effort from

play22:49

States as well because you know if we

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look at the labor codes there were some

play22:54

resistance from States so now all this

play22:57

would require collaboration from States

play22:59

as well as the central government and

play23:01

that is why if you see what the Finance

play23:03

Minister mentioned was that the 1.5 lakh

play23:05

CR which has been allocated for uh

play23:08

assistance towards capital expenditure a

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large part of that would be linked with

play23:13

these uh reform so this is I think a way

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to nudge the state governments also to

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implement uh the various factor market

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reforms and to simplify uh the registry

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and all of these things and to implement

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these reforms so I think it's going to

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be uh the conditions to utilize the fund

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will be conditional upon States

play23:33

partnering with the central government

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in rolling out these reforms and there

play23:37

was some talk about digitization of land

play23:39

records which is a big reform yeah crop

play23:42

surveys digitization of land record so

play23:44

all those things integrating digital

play23:46

public infrastructure in agriculture so

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those reforms were there and they are

play23:50

likely to be taken forward as part of

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the uh you know their Vision towards

play23:54

vixit bhat which would have a new

play23:56

economic framework you know rational

play23:58

iation of FDI laws overseas Investments

play24:02

all these were part of that so

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everything cannot be rolled out as part

play24:06

of the budget speech but the government

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has articulated its intent and they want

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States also to be equal Partners towards

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that and to nudge them uh they have they

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will be some part of that 1.5 lakh CR

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loan would be tied to the implementation

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of these reforms right and yes you're

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absolutely right the labor code

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notification did not find mention read

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from on that what you will uh the

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political compulsions of course are not

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something that we are going to go into

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this is an economic show so now we have

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another question this is also by

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somebody named adya it's from a

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different handle so I don't know if it's

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the same adya or not but uh they ask

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when the government seems to be so

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committed that they want everyone to be

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shifted to the new tax regime and

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they've provided incentives in every

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budget in respect of the new tax regime

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what is stopping the government from

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introducing the new tax regime and why

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the government is not encouraging public

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Investments by increasing ATC limits ATC

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limit is part of the old tax regime and

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the new tax regime has been introduced

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already has been introduced and this

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entire the the rationalization of slabs

play25:18

that have been introduced are all part

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of the new tax regime increase in

play25:22

standard deduction is also applicable to

play25:24

only those individuals who are part of

play25:26

the new tax regime so by all measures

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the government is trying to nudge people

play25:30

to move from the old tax regime to the

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new tax regime uh they want people to

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move to a regime which is uh which does

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not have many exemptions and deduction

play25:41

so therefore the exemption limit under

play25:44

Section ATC and all those incentive

play25:46

measures which earlier used to be part

play25:48

of budget statements do not find mention

play25:51

here because now the nudge clearly is to

play25:53

move towards new tax regime and whatever

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incentives would be provided in Du

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course also would be part would be under

play26:00

the new tax regime right so there you go

play26:04

now looking deeper into the budget past

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all of the announcements past all of the

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words and looking at the numbers what it

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shows is that now the capital

play26:14

expenditure amount has not been

play26:16

increased but a little more of the hus

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of this spending has been put on the

play26:21

state governments uh which is which is

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interesting Revenue expenditure of

play26:25

course has increased by some amount

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because there are all of these

play26:29

employment linked incentive schemes and

play26:31

some other announcements that have been

play26:33

made on the revenue side the income tax

play26:36

revenue projections seem uh realistic

play26:39

corporate tax revenue might come lower

play26:43

than what is projected and what what is

play26:45

projected is already lower than earlier

play26:47

because their profits are down the

play26:50

quality of government expenditure is has

play26:52

been improving over the medium term

play26:54

which means that there's more

play26:56

expenditure on growth generating areas

play27:00

like capital expenditure and less on

play27:02

Revenue expenditure and the fiscal

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deficit has come at 4.9% which again

play27:08

seems like a realistic uh number I think

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the projection is 4.9% which seems

play27:13

realistic and they're on track for 4.5%

play27:16

in the next year and the focus seems to

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be shifting towards bringing the debt to

play27:21

GDP uh level down now this is a great

play27:25

articulation of intent but we would love

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to to see actual targets being fixed to

play27:30

this because that's the only way we can

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hold the government accountable but on

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that note that's all we have for you

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thank you so much for watching

play27:41

[Music]

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[Applause]

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[Music]

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Related Tags
Budget AnalysisFiscal PolicyTax RevenueCapital ExpenditureEconomic ReformsGDP GrowthGovernment SpendingDebt to GDPEconomic OutlookIndia Economy