Truth in Telecoms, Robert Vis Part 2

Summary

In this discussion, the speaker delves into the challenges faced by messaging companies like Twilio, where traditional revenue models have been upended by carriers demanding a share of profits. The conversation touches on the impact of the Campaign Registry and the diminishing value proposition of messaging platforms. The speaker also shares insights on market manipulations, the future of RCS with Google and Apple, and the inevitable industry consolidation. They express a personal vendetta against certain industry players and predict a significant shift towards direct carrier agreements, rendering traditional messaging companies obsolete.

Takeaways

• 📉 The messaging industry, particularly companies like Twilio, has faced challenges due to carriers charging for messages, which has negatively impacted their business model.
• 💸 Companies that have made significant profits in the messaging industry have done so at a time when the market was more favorable, and some have since cashed out.
• 🚫 The establishment of the campaign registry by carriers in 2020 has further complicated the messaging business model by allowing carriers to charge for messages, thus reducing profitability.
• 🌐 The messaging industry is global, with different regions having different dynamics, and some companies have had to navigate complex relationships with carriers and other industry players.
• 💰 Some messaging companies have resorted to stock buybacks to inflate their stock prices, as seen with Twilio's $1.2 billion buyback in Q2 of a specific year.
• 📈 The speaker predicts a consolidation in the messaging industry, with larger companies potentially absorbing smaller ones, despite their current profitability.
• 🛑 The rise of RCS (Rich Communication Services) and the involvement of tech giants like Google and Apple may render traditional SMS and messaging platforms obsolete.
• 🏆 The speaker expresses a desire to build a brand in the US market, recognizing the potential for growth and the opportunity to differentiate from European markets.
• 💬 There is a significant focus on the future of messaging, with discussions about the role of technology, security, and the impact of fraudulent activities on the industry's reputation.
• ⚖️ Legal actions and disputes are mentioned as a part of the landscape, with some companies facing lawsuits and others navigating complex legal environments.

Q & A

What was the initial business model issue for companies like Twilio?

The initial issue was that companies like Twilio were charging customers per message, which was still cheaper than Europe, but the carriers eventually started charging them for the messages, significantly altering the business model.

What is the significance of the Campaign Registry in the messaging industry?

The Campaign Registry was created by carriers under the guise of stopping spam, but it enabled them to charge for messages, which started a couple of years ago and has been a significant change in the industry.

Why did the speaker mention CCH and their stock situation?

CCH is mentioned as an example of a company that has a large number of outstanding shares, which makes the stock price struggle to increase due to the sheer volume, illustrating the challenges in the market.

What did the speaker suggest about the future of messaging companies and their profitability?

The speaker suggested that many messaging companies have already made their money and the industry is moving towards a point where traditional messaging companies may not be as profitable due to changes in technology and market dynamics.

Why did the speaker mention an activist investor's role in Twilio?

The speaker mentioned activist investors in Twilio to illustrate how they are trying to inflate the stock price through buybacks, indicating the struggles and tactics used in the market.

What is the speaker's view on the role of violence in business?

The speaker is anti-violence and prefers to compete and 'torture' in business rather than through physical means, indicating a preference for legal and strategic competition.

What is the significance of the speaker's decision to leave the Netherlands?

Leaving the Netherlands was a significant move for the speaker as it was a big deal in their home country, and it signifies a transition to building a brand in the US market.

Why does the speaker believe there is no future in the European market for their company?

The speaker believes there is no future in the European market because of the saturation and the challenges in making significant profits there, suggesting a shift towards the US market.

What is the speaker's opinion on the role of RCS and the campaign registry in the future of messaging?

The speaker believes that the campaign registry and the need for intermediaries will become obsolete as RCS and direct connections with carriers and tech giants like Apple and Google become more prevalent.

Why is the speaker critical of certain practices in the messaging industry?

The speaker is critical because they see certain practices, like robotic account creation and kickbacks, as harmful to the industry's long-term health and trustworthiness.