A New War in Ukraine || Peter Zeihan

Summary

In this update from Geneva Basin, Colorado, the situation in Ukraine is discussed with four main developments. The Ukrainian offensive into Russia's KK Province has caused significant Russian casualties and disrupted logistics. The sinking of Russia's last rail ferry has severed Crimea's fuel supply. Proletariansk's fuel depot is ablaze, further crippling Russian capabilities. Meanwhile, the Russian assault on the Ukrainian city of Prr is a major concern, as its fall would disrupt Ukrainian supply lines and force a multi-front defense strategy, indicating a highly dynamic and critical phase in the conflict.

Takeaways

• 🇺🇦 The Ukrainian offensive into Russia's KK Province has triggered a war of movement with heavy casualties on both sides.
• 🌉 Ukrainian forces have destroyed bridges across the S River, cutting off support for Russian forces south of the river and north of the Ukrainian border.
• 🚀 Ukrainians have brought long-range strike capabilities close to the border, targeting logistics infrastructure up to 100 miles away in the southern and western parts of Kerser Province.
• 📍 The northern front of Ukraine has moved into Russian territory, significantly changing battlefield dynamics.
• 🛳️ Ukrainians have sunk Russia's last rail ferry, disrupting the primary supply route to Crimea and affecting fuel delivery to the Crimean front.
• 🔥 A major fuel depot in Proletarskoye has been severely damaged by fire, with a third of the tanks destroyed and the rest at risk.
• 🚧 The loss of the rail ferry and the fuel depot could permanently affect the Russian supply chain for Crimea and the southern front.
• 🏙️ The city of Proletarskoye is a critical fuel depot, and its potential loss poses a significant challenge for the Russian forces.
• 🛡️ The Russian assault on the city of Prr is intense, with daily meat assaults indicating a high-priority target for them.
• 🚂 The city of Prr is a rail nexus, and its capture by the Russians would complicate Ukrainian supply efforts and require a rerouting of forces.
• 🔄 The situation is highly dynamic with potential for significant changes in the front line in the coming months, affecting the strategic balance.

Q & A

What is the current situation described in the Geneva Basin area?

The Geneva Basin area is behind the speaker, and they are standing on the crest of Geneva Mountain, discussing the developments in Ukraine.

What is the significance of the Ukrainian offensive into Russia's KK Province?

The offensive has triggered a war of movement with the Russians, resulting in heavy casualties on both sides, especially for the Russians due to the destruction of bridges across the S River, which has cut off support for their forces.

How are the Ukrainians utilizing their long-range strike capabilities?

The Ukrainians have brought their long-range missiles, mortars, and drones close to the border, launching strikes on logistics infrastructure up to 100 miles away in the southern and western parts of Kerser Province.

What impact has the Ukrainian offensive had on the northern front of Ukraine?

The northern front of Ukraine has now been relocated into Russian territory, marking a significant change in battlefield realities and potentially allowing the Ukrainians to cut infrastructure between K City and Belgrad City.

What was the importance of the rail ferry that Ukraine sunk?

The rail ferry was the primary means for Russia to supply their forces in Crimea after the Kerch Strait Bridge's cargo function was shut off. Its sinking has severely impacted Russia's ability to ship fuel to the Crimean front.

What is the current state of the fuel depot in Proletarsk, and what does it mean for the Russian forces?

The fuel depot in Proletarsk has been severely damaged by an attack, with a third of the tanks destroyed and the fire spreading. This poses a significant risk to the Russian forces' fuel supply for the Crimean front.

What is the strategic significance of the city of Proletarsk in the conflict?

Proletarsk is a major fuel depot, and its destruction could significantly hinder the Russian forces' ability to maintain their positions and operations in Crimea.

What is the situation in the city of Prr, and why is it critical for both sides?

Prr is under heavy Russian assault, with numerous attacks against Ukrainian forces. Its capture would be a major problem for the Ukrainians as it is a rail nexus, complicating their ability to concentrate forces and supplies.

How is the situation in Prr affecting the broader conflict dynamics?

The potential fall of Prr could force the Ukrainians to reroute supplies and reinforcements from multiple points, making it more difficult to maintain a cohesive defense.

What are the implications of the current conflict for the Ukrainian and Russian forces' maneuverability?

The Ukrainians have been able to maneuver freely without minefields, but the potential loss of Prr and the need to hold the front in multiple places could complicate their operations. Conversely, the Russians may be less able to defend Crimea due to fuel shortages.

What does the speaker suggest about the near future of the conflict?

The speaker suggests that the situation is very dynamic, with decisive changes in the front line expected in the coming month, possibly more than in the last couple of years.

Outlines

00:00

🔥 Escalating Conflict in Ukraine and Russia

The first paragraph outlines the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, focusing on the Ukrainian offensive into Russia's KK Province, causing significant casualties on both sides. Ukrainian forces have destroyed bridges over the S River, isolating Russian forces and disrupting their logistics. The Ukrainians are also utilizing long-range missiles, mortars, and drones to strike targets up to 100 miles deep into Russian territory, effectively moving the northern front into Russia. This has the potential to cut off the infrastructure between K City and Belgrad City, which is crucial for Russian supply lines in the northern front.

05:00

🛳 Disruption of Russian Supply Lines

The second paragraph discusses the sinking of Russia's last rail ferry, which was a primary supply route for Russian forces in Crimea. The Kur Street bridge had already been compromised, and the loss of the ferry due to Ukrainian attacks has severely impacted the Russian capacity to deliver fuel to the Crimean front. This has led to a dire situation for the Russian forces in Crimea, as they are now unable to receive the necessary fuel supplies.

🔥 Destruction of a Major Fuel Depot

The third paragraph highlights an attack on a major fuel depot in the city of Proletarsk, which houses 74 large fuel tanks. The attack has resulted in an intense fire that has destroyed a third of the tanks and threatens to spread further. This poses a significant problem for the Russian forces, as not only is fuel delivery compromised, but also their storage capabilities are at risk of being permanently lost, further hindering their operations in the region.

🏰 Russian Assault on Ukrainian City and Strategic Concerns

The fourth paragraph describes the Russian assault on the city of Prr, emphasizing the strategic importance of the city as a rail nexus. The Ukrainians face challenges in supplying the front if the city falls, as it would require rerouting and concentration of forces from multiple points. The paragraph also touches on the potential for the Ukrainians to take advantage of the situation if they can find additional reserves, and the implications of the city's fall on the overall conflict.

Keywords

💡Geneva Basin

The Geneva Basin is a geographical location mentioned in the script, serving as the backdrop for the speaker's discussion. It's significant as it sets the scene for the broader context of the video, which is focused on the situation in Ukraine. The script does not provide further details about the Geneva Basin, but its mention helps to establish the setting and seriousness of the topics being discussed.

💡Ukrainian offensive

The 'Ukrainian offensive' refers to the military actions taken by Ukraine into Russian territory, specifically into the KK Province. The script describes this offensive as having triggered a 'war of movement' with the Russians, indicating a dynamic and fluid conflict situation. This concept is central to understanding the evolving military dynamics on the northern border of Ukraine.

💡Casualties

Casualties in this context refer to the losses suffered by both Ukrainian and Russian forces during the conflict. The script mentions 'heavy casualties' for the Ukrainians and 'astronomical casualties' for the Russians, emphasizing the severity and intensity of the fighting. This term is crucial for understanding the human cost of the conflict.

💡S River

The 'S River' mentioned in the script is a geographical feature that plays a strategic role in the conflict. The destruction of the bridges across this river has reportedly trapped Russian forces, leading to significant losses due to lack of support. This term is key to understanding the tactical advantages and disadvantages in the ongoing conflict.

💡Logistics infrastructure

Logistics infrastructure refers to the systems and facilities required for the movement of supplies, such as roads, bridges, and storage facilities. In the script, it is mentioned that Ukrainian forces are targeting this infrastructure in the southern and western parts of Kerser Province, disrupting Russian supply lines. This is a critical aspect of the conflict as it impacts the ability of forces to maintain operations.

💡K City and Belgrad City

While the script does not provide full names, 'K City' and 'Belgrad City' appear to be significant locations in the conflict. The script suggests that cutting the infrastructure between these cities could disrupt Russian supply lines for the northern front, indicating their importance in the logistics of the conflict.

💡Rail ferry

A 'rail ferry' is a vessel designed to carry railway wagons across bodies of water. In the context of the script, the sinking of Russia's last rail ferry has disrupted the supply of fuel to the Crimean front, highlighting the strategic importance of this mode of transportation in the conflict.

💡Proletarskiy

Proletarskiy is mentioned as a city with a major fuel depot that has been targeted by Ukrainian forces. The script describes the depot as having 74 large tanks, a third of which have been destroyed in an attack. This term is significant as it illustrates the impact of the conflict on the fuel supply, which is a critical resource for military operations.

💡Debaltseve

Debaltseve is a city in the script that is currently under Russian assault. The city is described as a rail nexus, a point where seven lines come together, making it strategically important. If Debaltseve falls, it could pose a significant problem for Ukrainian forces as it would require them to reroute and disperse their efforts, affecting their ability to concentrate forces effectively.

💡War of attrition

A 'war of attrition' is a conflict where the primary objective is to wear down the enemy until they are unable to continue fighting. The script mentions that both sides are trying to avoid this type of war, as it is characterized by high casualties and prolonged conflict. This term is relevant to understanding the strategic goals and the nature of the fighting in the video's narrative.

💡Minefields

Minefields are areas where explosive mines are placed on or under the ground to prevent or slow down enemy movement. The script notes that there are no minefields in Crimea, allowing for free maneuverability. This is an important detail as it affects the tactical movement and military strategy of the forces involved in the conflict.

Highlights

Ukrainian offensive into Russia's KK Province has triggered a war of movement with heavy casualties on both sides.

Ukrainians have destroyed bridges across the S River, disrupting Russian forces' support.

Ukrainian forces have brought long-range missiles, mortars, and drones close to the border for strategic strikes.

Northern front of Ukraine has relocated into Russian territory, changing battlefield dynamics.

Ukrainians aim to cut infrastructure between K City and Belgrad City, affecting Russian supply lines.

Ukrainians have sunk Russia's last rail ferry, disrupting supply routes to Crimea.

The Kur Street bridge's cargo function has been shut off, affecting fuel supply to Crimea.

Russian fuel depot in prolet tesque Tas has been severely damaged, impacting fuel storage and delivery.

Attack on the fuel depot could permanently affect fuel positioning for the Crimean front.

Russian assault on the city of prr emphasizes their determination to take the city at any cost.

The fall of prr could be a major problem for Ukrainians as it is a crucial rail nexus.

Ukrainians face challenges in reinforcing the front line from multiple points if prr falls.

The situation in Da Boss is now in play, with potential for significant changes in the front line.

Ukrainians need to find more reserves to take advantage of the current situation.

The war has become dynamic with three different fronts in play, leading to potential shifts in the next month.

The situation is very dynamic, with the potential for more changes than in the last couple of years.

Transcripts

hello from Colorado on a somewhat call

me Saturday uh this is the Geneva Basin

behind me and I am standing on the crest

of Geneva Mountain uh today we're going

to catch you up on everything that's

going on in Ukraine we've got four big

things that have evolved over the last

couple of weeks uh the first one we've

already discussed uh quite a bit and

that is the ukraini offensive through

their northern border into Russia proper

into the KK Province where they've

triggered a war of movement with the

Russians uh it's everything that we can

tell is that the ukrainians are taking

heavy casualties and the Russians are

taking just absolutely astronomical

casualties uh because the ukrainians

have destroyed the bridges across the s

River so the Russian forces that are

south of the river and north of the

Ukrainian border are just getting

chopped up without any support uh and

the ukrainians are apparently having a

pretty good time of it uh they've also

brought a lot of their longer strike

range uh missiles uh and mortars and

drones uh very very close to the Border

itself and are launching liit targets up

to 100 miles with ad are Miss proper and

are just gutting the logistics

infrastructure of everything in the

southern and western parts of kerser

Province um basically the entirety of

the northern front of the Ukraine has

now been relocated into Russian

territory so a significant change in

Battlefield realities there and if the

ukrainians are able to keep this up

they'll be able to cut the

infrastructure between K City and

belgrad city which is how all Uh Russian

forces have been supplying for the

northern fruit so very significant has

the opportunity become much more sign

significant in the days and weeks to

come the second big effect is that the

ukrainians have successfully sunk

Russia's last rail fery now for those of

you who haven't been watching for a

while um the primary means of the

Russians have been using to supply their

forces in the crimeia peninsula in the

south of Ukraine has been the Kur Street

bridge but after a series of attacks on

it over the last two years the cargo

function of the bridge has basically

been shut off they can Personnel in

but no cargo so no fuel so they've now

been using brail fairies to go from the

Black Sea Coast of Russia into crime in

occupied territory well the ukrainians a

few months ago started targeting the

rail fairies and this last week the

final was hit and it was hit while it

was at Doc in Port and it sunk in its

birth so even if the Russians had the

equipment and the Personnel uh to clear

it it's unclear that they still do

they're talking about an operation that

would probably take a minimum of a

couple of months and even if they did

clear it they have no more rail fairies

and no one will sell them any so this

has basically destroyed the

capacity of the Russians to ship fuel to

the Crimean front uh the third thing

involves the city of prolet tesque Tas

SP right here uh Mis out uh anyway uh

that is a city uh further Inland Cort

crador crador crador cray basically

Republic um at its a major Fuel Depot uh

74 of those giant tanks that you see

outside of refineries or anywhere

Houston uh and so far the fire that

they've triggered because of this attack

has been so intense that it's completely

destroyed a third of the tanks and it's

spreading to the rest uh once again even

if the Russians had the equipment and

the Personnel necessary to fight the

fire which they don't um and is how want

to call it out out of control but the

Russians are barely holding the line and

the ukrainians have not let up they've

been at least a couple more attacks

since then uh and there's a very real

possibility

that this entire Depot which is by far

the biggest and most relevant one to the

Krogan front is not going to be there a

couple weeks from now uh so not only as

the fuel delivery now out of the

equation uh the fuel storage of the four

positioning uh seems to be going off the

light permanently as well uh that would

nor op open up a huge opportunity for

the ukrainians to press at the camian

for because of the Russian suiters in

Gia can't get small or reinforcements or

ammunition in all the back

but that brings us to the fourth problem

which is absolutely not going the

ukrainians way and that is the Russian

assault on the Ukrainian city of

prr uh prr prr emphasis on

the uh that is in the Da Boss actually

not too far from one of the regional

capist uh basically what's going on here

is the Russians have decided that they

have to take the city at any cost

they've been throwing literally dozens

of meat assaults against Ukrainian

forces every single day for for the last

month uh and as the Russians are

scrambling to move forces North into K

or south towards the crimeia they have

not pulled anything out of brosque in

fact now that they can't get fuel to

crimeia there's an argument to be made

that the Russians aren't even going to

bother trying to defend CIA in the short

term they're just going to set up

all if procr falls it's a major problem

for the ukrainians because it's a rail

Nexus where seven lines come together

and if it is taking out it's not that

the Russians excuse me it's not that the

ukrainians can't Supply the front of

Theon boss but inste instead of having a

single point where you can concentrate

your forces and have a male fist punch

back will have to do it from several

different points that require a lot of

rerouting but that could be nearly as

affected watch Russians and tri other

areas because the ukrainians up

for ukrainians have always been trying

to bank this m i to as the Russians have

always tried to is a war of agression

one of the reasons why they cre so well

in Cur is they have managed to make a

war withand there are no Mine Fields up

there so they're free to maneuver but

for cross Falls the Russians are going

to be excuse me the ukrainians are going

to be running around just to try to hold

the front seven different places than he

which they reinforce be a big problem so

a lot of decisive things going on here

cursed is in play Kia is in play if the

ukrainians can find some more reserves

to for those are known curs so it's

probably likely to take advantage of

this and then of course uh the da bus is

now in play so we're probably going to

see more changes in the front line in

the next month than we have seen in the

last couple of years the very very very

Dynamic situation very

Slayer has theer hand here because we

three different PS at place by the