Dövizde gizemli hareket | Yüzde 1.49 kredi? | Borsada VİOP

Barış Soydan

28 Aug 202413:13

Summary

TLDRThe video script discusses the sudden jump of the Turkish Lira (TL) against the US dollar in the Asian market, followed by a quick intervention by public banks to stabilize it. It highlights the difference between the TL's value increase and inflation rates since March, suggesting foreign investors are aware of the situation. The script also covers the rise in foreign exchange (FX) futures and investment funds, with a focus on currency funds' performance and the potential impact of economic policies on future returns. It concludes with a mention of the US Federal Reserve's upcoming data release and its influence on global markets, including gold prices and the Turkish stock market.

Takeaways

📈 The Turkish Lira (TL) experienced a sudden jump against the US dollar in the Asian market, reaching almost 50 kuruş, but was quickly intervened by public bank traders to stabilize it.
🏦 The central bank's control over the TL is evident as it swiftly responded to the currency's fluctuation, indicating a strategic approach to economic management.
📊 Despite inflation in Turkey rising to 23% since March, the value of the dollar has not increased proportionally, suggesting a discrepancy between inflation rates and currency appreciation.
💰 Foreign investors are likely observing the Turkish market, as evidenced by the increase in foreign exchange (FX) forwards and investment funds, anticipating potential future gains.
📉 The Turkish stock market experienced a decline, influenced by reports about banks' target prices and the overall economic outlook.
💡 The central bank's policy appears to be aimed at preventing excessive TL depreciation against foreign currencies, using interest rate decisions as a tool to combat inflation.
🌐 The global economic situation, including the US Federal Reserve's decisions and corporate earnings reports, has a significant impact on the Turkish market.
🤔 Rumors about banks offering housing loans at 1.49% interest are likely false, as they contradict the current tight monetary policy.
📊 Gold prices fluctuated, with a significant drop in world markets, influenced by the US dollar index and global economic indicators.
📉 The Borsa Istanbul experienced a mixed day, with some sectors like construction and transportation showing gains, while banks and finance-related stocks declined.
🔮 Looking forward, the removal of the VIP (Venture Investment Partnership) effect and the release of Nvidia's earnings report in the US are expected to influence the Turkish market in the coming days.

Q & A

What unusual event occurred with the dollar to Turkish Lira exchange rate at 4 AM?
-The dollar to Turkish Lira exchange rate suddenly jumped at around 4 AM, gaining nearly 50 kurusha, reaching 3.49 lira, but it quickly dropped back down to its previous level.
What did the sudden fluctuation in the exchange rate indicate about the economic management?
-The sudden fluctuation indicated that the economic management has full control over the Turkish Lira, as the relevant authorities intervened immediately to bring the rate back to its intended level.
How did the exchange rate movement compare to the inflation rate since March?
-Since March, the inflation rate has accumulated to 23%, but the dollar has not increased by the same percentage against the Turkish Lira, showing a significant discrepancy.
What is the current situation with foreign investors' perception of the Turkish economy?
-Foreign investors are likely observing the sharp movements in the market and adjusting their positions accordingly, with an increase in foreign exchange and bond investments.
What has been the trend in foreign exchange funds in the past week?
-Foreign exchange funds have seen significant growth, with Deniz Portföyü receiving approximately 2 billion dollars and AK Portföyü receiving about 1 billion dollars in the past week.
What is the current monthly return of foreign exchange funds compared to interest-based funds?
-The monthly returns of foreign exchange funds are around 7.5% to 7%, while interest-based funds are offering around 4.3% monthly returns.
What is the Central Bank of Turkey's stance on the Turkish Lira's real appreciation?
-The Central Bank of Turkey aims for the real appreciation of the Turkish Lira and uses it in its fight against inflation, indicating that it does not want the dollar to rise too much.
How has the performance of the British Pound, Euro, and Danish Krone compared to the Turkish Lira since the beginning of 2019?
-Since the beginning of 2019, the British Pound has risen by 201.9%, the Euro by 115.1%, the Danish Krone by 155%, and the US Dollar by 155% against the Turkish Lira.
What is the impact of the rumored 1.49% interest rate home loan by Ziraat Bank and Halkbank on the housing market?
-If true, the rumored 1.49% interest rate home loan would likely cause an increase in housing prices, which are currently declining both in real and nominal terms in cities like Istanbul and Izmir.
What is the expected outcome of the critical data release in the US, including the personal consumption expenditure price index?
-The release of the personal consumption expenditure price index is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which in turn could affect the direction of gold and other markets.
How did the Borsa Istanbul perform on the day the script was recorded?
-The Borsa Istanbul opened higher but later fell into negative territory due to a report on bank stocks, eventually closing near the previous day's level with a slight increase.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Dollar Fluctuations and Economic Control

The script discusses the sudden rise of the US dollar against the Turkish lira in the Asian market, which increased by nearly 50 kurusha, reaching 3.49 lira but then quickly fell back. It suggests that the Central Bank's intervention was swift and effective, demonstrating control over the currency. The discussion also touches on the impact of inflation, comparing the rise in the dollar to the overall inflation rate in Turkey, which has accumulated to 23% since March according to the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce. The script notes that foreign investors are likely observing these economic movements, which may influence their investment decisions in Turkish assets.

05:00

🏠 Housing Credit Rumors and Market Reactions

This paragraph addresses a rumor about Ziraat Bank and Halkbank offering housing loans at an interest rate of 1.49%, which the speaker considers highly unlikely due to the current tight monetary policy. The speaker speculates that if such a policy were to be implemented, it would significantly affect housing prices, which are currently declining in real terms. The paragraph also mentions the impact of the US Federal Reserve's decisions on global markets, including gold prices, and anticipates critical data releases that could influence market movements.

10:04

📊 Stock Market Analysis and Investor Behavior

The script provides an analysis of the Turkish stock market, noting fluctuations and the impact of various factors such as bank reports and the performance of specific companies like Nvidia. It discusses the market's reaction to certain economic data and company earnings reports, as well as the potential influence of foreign exchange rates and the Central Bank's policies on investor behavior. The speaker also predicts that the market will reflect more realistic pricing in the coming week as the effects of certain financial instruments wear off.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Dollar

The dollar is a term commonly used to refer to the currency of the United States. In the video, the dollar's value against the Turkish Lira (TL) is a central theme, discussing its sudden spike and subsequent fall, which indicates the economic movements and interventions by the state bank in the currency market.

💡Turkish Lira (TL)

The Turkish Lira is the official currency of Turkey. The script discusses the lira's value in relation to the dollar, highlighting the economic strategies and interventions that affect its exchange rate, which is a key aspect of the video's focus on financial markets.

💡Inflation

Inflation refers to the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. The video mentions the inflation rate in Turkey, comparing it with the increase in the value of the dollar, to illustrate economic trends and the impact on the currency's value.

💡State Bank

A state bank typically refers to a central bank or a government-run financial institution. In the context of the video, the state bank's intervention in the currency market is discussed, showing how it can influence the value of the lira and the dollar.

💡Trader

A trader is an individual or entity that engages in the buying and selling of financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, or currencies. The script mentions traders in relation to the sudden movement of the dollar against the lira, indicating their role in the market dynamics.

💡Foreign Exchange (Forex)

Foreign exchange, or forex, refers to the exchange of one currency for another. The video discusses forex rates and how they are influenced by various factors, including the actions of the state bank and economic conditions.

💡Investment Funds

Investment funds are collective investment schemes that pool money from investors to invest in a range of assets. The script talks about different types of investment funds, such as foreign currency funds, and their performance in the market, which is relevant to the video's theme of financial investment and returns.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and the return on investment. The video discusses interest rates in the context of financial instruments like money market funds and their comparison with the returns from foreign currency funds.

💡Economic Management

Economic management refers to the way a country's economy is overseen and directed, often by the government or central bank. The script mentions the economic management's control over the lira and its strategies to combat inflation and stabilize the currency.

💡Stock Market

The stock market is a place where shares of publicly traded companies are issued and traded. The video discusses the performance of the stock market, including specific companies and sectors, in relation to economic indicators and investor sentiment.

💡Qualification for Investment

Qualification for investment often refers to the criteria or status required to invest in certain financial instruments. The script mentions that to invest in free foreign currency funds, one must be a qualified investor, which is a term used to describe investors who meet certain financial thresholds.

Highlights

The Turkish Lira (TL) experienced a sudden jump against the US dollar in the early morning, reaching nearly 50 kurusha, but then quickly dropped back down to its current level.

The jump in the TL was likely due to an intervention by the state bank's traders, demonstrating the full control of the economic management over the currency.

The Turkish economy has seen a total inflation of 23% since March, according to the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce, with the August inflation rate expected to be announced at the end of the week.

Despite the inflation, the US dollar has not increased by the same percentage against the TL since March, suggesting a discrepancy between inflation and currency value.

Foreign investors are likely observing the Turkish market, with an increase in foreign exchange (forex) futures indicating a potential rise in the TL in the next period.

There has been a significant influx of capital into forex funds, with Deniz Portföy and AK Portföy receiving substantial investments in their forex funds.

To invest in free forex funds, one must be a qualified investor, typically having over 1 million lira in savings or capital at the bank.

The recent performance of forex funds has been better than that of money market funds, with some forex funds showing monthly returns of around 7.5%.

The Central Bank of Turkey is unlikely to allow the TL to appreciate significantly in real terms, as it aims to combat inflation.

The best-performing currencies against the TL since the beginning of the year include the British pound, the Euro, and the Danish krone, with significant appreciation.

A rumor about Ziraat Bank and Halkbank offering housing loans at 1.49% interest is likely false, as it contradicts the current tight monetary policy.

Gold prices have dropped by around 1% today, influenced by the strength of the US dollar index.

Tomorrow is a critical day for the US markets with the release of key economic data and the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

Nvidia's financial results are expected to be announced after the US markets close, which could significantly affect technology stocks, including AI-related shares.

The BIST 100 index showed mixed results today, with some sectors like construction and transportation outperforming, while banks and finance-related stocks underperformed.

The Borsa Istanbul ended the day close to its opening level, with some fluctuations due to the impact of a report on bank stocks and overall market sentiment.

Looking ahead, next week's market performance will be influenced by the resolution of the VIP (Variable Interest Payment) effect and the potential for more realistic pricing.