Project Orion (GPT-5 Strawberry) Imminent, Already Shown To FEDS!

Summary

The script discusses OpenAI's potential release of a new AI model, 'Strawberry,' aimed at improving complex reasoning and math capabilities. It highlights OpenAI's demonstration of the technology to federal officials and its use in developing 'Orion,' their next flagship model. The script also touches on the debate over open-source AI, the challenges of generating high-quality training data, and the competition in the AI industry. It speculates on how Strawberry might be integrated into products like Chat-GPT and the importance of reducing AI 'hallucinations' for enterprise adoption.

Takeaways

• 🧠 OpenAI is reportedly on the verge of releasing a new AI model, possibly named 'Strawberry', which could be a significant technical breakthrough for complex task completion.
• 🔍 'Strawberry' is associated with slower thinking models that plan ahead and perform better in math and logic due to multi-step reasoning capabilities.
• 🤔 OpenAI has demonstrated this unreleased technology to American National Security officials, possibly setting a new standard for AI transparency with policymakers.
• 📈 There is speculation that 'Strawberry' could be used to generate high-quality training data for 'Orion', OpenAI's next flagship large language model.
• 💡 The technology behind 'Strawberry' might be too slow for consumer use in a chat-based product, indicating a potential focus on less time-sensitive applications.
• 📊 OpenAI's business has seen substantial growth with LLM sales and Chat GPT subscriptions tripling, despite ongoing losses.
• 🚀 The launch of 'Orion' is crucial for OpenAI to stay ahead of competitors like Google's DeepMind and Anthropic, who are also advancing in AI capabilities.
• 🛡️ 'Strawberry' could help reduce 'hallucinations' or errors in AI models by improving the quality of training data, which is vital for enterprise adoption.
• 💡 The potential applications of 'Strawberry' in solving complex math problems could be lucrative for fields like aerospace and structural engineering.
• 🔑 The origins of 'Strawberry' lie in research started years ago by Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI's former Chief Scientist, who has since left to start a competing AI lab.
• 📰 The AI community is abuzz with speculation and excitement similar to tech industry hype around new product releases, indicating the fervor around anticipated AI advancements.

Q & A

What is the significance of the 'Strawberry' AI model mentioned in the transcript?

Strawberry is a mysterious technical breakthrough that could enhance Open AI models' ability to complete complex tasks such as math problems, which conversational AI traditionally struggles with. It represents a slower thinking model that can plan ahead, think through problems, and perform better at math and logic reasoning.

What is the connection between Strawberry and Orion in the context of Open AI's developments?

Strawberry is being used to generate high-quality training data for Orion, which is reportedly Open AI's next flagship large language model in development. This is important as much of the training data on the internet has already been used, and Strawberry could help overcome limitations on obtaining enough high-quality data.

Why did Open AI demonstrate Strawberry to American National Security officials?

Open AI demonstrated Strawberry to American National Security officials to set a new standard for AI developers, especially as advanced AI increasingly becomes a national security concern. This could be part of Open AI's push to be more transparent with policymakers who could cause the company problems if they feel threatened by its technology.

What is the potential impact of Open AI's decision to demonstrate unreleased technology to government officials?

Demonstrating unreleased technology to government officials could influence how AI is regulated and integrated into national security strategies. It might also set a precedent for other AI developers to engage with policymakers before releasing new technologies.

What is the role of 'Qar' in the context of Strawberry and Orion?

Qar is a model that, like Strawberry, focuses on slower thinking and multi-step reasoning. It is part of the same initiative to develop AI that can handle complex tasks better, and it could be incorporated into future Open AI products to improve their reasoning capabilities.

How does the transcript suggest that Strawberry and similar models could change the AI industry?

The transcript suggests that Strawberry and similar models could change the AI industry by setting new standards for complex reasoning and problem-solving in AI. It also implies that these models could lead to more transparent interactions between AI developers and policymakers.

What is the potential application of Strawberry in improving AI's reasoning capabilities for coding errors in GitHub?

Strawberry's potential application in GitHub could involve using its improved reasoning capabilities to fix non-critical coding errors. Given that Strawberry takes time to think through problems, it might be well-suited for tasks that do not require immediate responses.

How does the transcript discuss the challenges of AI-generated data, also known as synthetic data?

The transcript discusses the challenges of synthetic data by noting that it is derivative and may not create new knowledge. It raises concerns about whether training AI models with data generated by another model could lead to sustainable improvements in AI capabilities.

What is the significance of Open AI's potential move to simplify and shrink Strawberry through a process called distillation?

The significance of simplifying and shrinking Strawberry through distillation is to make the technology suitable for use in a chat-based product before Orion is released. This suggests that the original Strawberry model might be too slow for consumer settings where immediate responses are expected.

How does the transcript address the competition in the AI industry, especially with regards to reasoning capabilities?

The transcript addresses competition by mentioning other companies like Google's DeepMind and Anthropic, which are also developing AI models with improved reasoning capabilities. It highlights the competitive landscape and the need for Open AI to launch something incredible to stay ahead.

What is the potential business impact of Open AI's new models on fields that require complex problem-solving like math-heavy fields?

The potential business impact could be significant, as AI that can solve tough math problems could be lucrative in fields such as Aerospace and Structural Engineering, where existing AI isn't great at handling complex mathematical tasks.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Open AI's New Model 'Strawberry' and Orion

The script discusses the imminent release of Open AI's new model, 'Strawberry,' and its potential demonstration to the federal government. It highlights the connection between 'Strawberry' and 'Orion,' Open AI's next frontier model. The article by Stephanie Palazolo suggests that 'Strawberry' could aid in complex task completion, such as math problems, which are traditionally challenging for conversational AI. The script also speculates on the implications of Open AI's transparency with policymakers and the national security concerns surrounding advanced AI. It touches on the debate over open-source AI and the difficulty of keeping AI advancements secret, especially from competitors like China.

05:00

🤖 Strawberry's Role in Enhancing AI Reasoning and Training Data

This paragraph delves into the specifics of 'Strawberry,' a model that enables long-term thinking and multi-step reasoning, which are significant improvements over traditional conversational AI. The script mentions the efforts to simplify 'Strawberry' through a process called distillation, possibly for integration into a chat-based product. It also discusses the potential applications of 'Strawberry,' such as improving the accuracy of AI responses in less time-sensitive scenarios, like coding error correction on GitHub or the use in AI agents. The paragraph further explores the financial aspects of Open AI, including its revenue from LLM sales and subscriptions, and the importance of launching a successful flagship model like 'Orion' to stay competitive in the market.

10:01

🧠 Synthetic Data and Reducing AI 'Hallucinations'

The script addresses the use of 'Strawberry' for generating synthetic data to train new models like 'Orion,' overcoming the limitations of obtaining high-quality real-world data. It discusses the potential of 'Strawberry' to reduce errors or 'hallucinations' in AI models, which is crucial for enterprise adoption and critical applications. The importance of having accurate training data to minimize ambiguity and improve the AI's problem-solving abilities is highlighted. The paragraph also touches on the competitive landscape with other companies like Google's DeepMind and Anthropic, and the challenges of creating new knowledge through AI models.

15:03

🌐 Speculations and Anticipations for Open AI's Future Models

The final paragraph wraps up with a discussion on the speculations surrounding Open AI's models, the role of 'Strawberry' in research, and its potential impact on future models. It mentions the origins of 'Strawberry' in research conducted by Ilya Sutskever and its development by Jacob and Simon Sedom. The script also references the departure of key researchers from Open AI and the competitive AI lab landscape. It concludes with a lighter note on the excitement and speculation in the AI community, akin to the buzz around tech product releases, and hints at the upcoming in-depth coverage of the new Open AI model.

Keywords

💡Open AI

Open AI refers to a research laboratory that focuses on advancing digital intelligence. In the context of the video, Open AI is on the verge of releasing a new AI model, which is a significant development in the field of artificial intelligence. The script discusses how Open AI's innovations, such as the 'Strawberry' AI, are poised to impact the technology landscape.

💡Strawberry AI

Strawberry AI is a mysterious technical breakthrough mentioned in the script, which is associated with Open AI's efforts to improve AI's capability to complete complex tasks, such as math problems. It is a key concept in the video, illustrating the potential for AI to engage in slower, more thoughtful processing akin to human reasoning.

💡Orion

Orion is described as Open AI's next frontier model in AI development. It is suggested to be a significant leap from current models, indicating a new direction in AI technology. The script implies that Orion will utilize the advancements of Strawberry AI to enhance its capabilities.

💡QAR

QAR, or 'Question Answering with Reasoning,' is a concept related to AI's ability to provide answers after engaging in a reasoning process. The script mentions QAR in relation to Strawberry AI, highlighting how these models can offer more accurate responses by thinking through problems rather than providing immediate, potentially incorrect, answers.

💡AI-generated data

AI-generated data, as discussed in the script, refers to the creation of new training data by AI models themselves. This is a novel approach that Open AI might be using to train models like Orion, overcoming the limitations of relying solely on existing real-world data.

💡Distillation

In the context of AI, distillation is a process used to simplify a complex model into a smaller, more efficient one without losing much of its functionality. The script mentions Open AI's efforts to distill Strawberry AI, making it suitable for consumer applications like chat-based products.

💡Hallucinations

In AI, 'hallucinations' refer to the incorrect or fabricated information that a model might produce. The script discusses how Strawberry AI could help reduce these errors in models like Orion, improving the reliability of AI outputs.

💡Large Language Models (LLMs)

LLMs are AI models designed to process and understand large amounts of human-generated text. The script talks about the competition in the LLM space, with Open AI's Orion aiming to outperform existing models like Google's DeepMind and Anthropic's models.

💡Synthetic data

Synthetic data, as mentioned in the script, is artificially created data that mimics the characteristics of real data. Open AI is reportedly using synthetic data generated by Strawberry AI to train Orion, which could potentially lead to more accurate and less ambiguous AI models.

💡Agents

In AI, 'agents' refer to autonomous systems that can perform tasks on behalf of users. The script suggests that Open AI is developing AI agents that could benefit from the reasoning capabilities of Strawberry AI, indicating a future where AI can assist in more complex and personalized ways.

💡Reasoning capabilities

Reasoning capabilities in AI denote the ability of a model to think logically and draw conclusions. The script emphasizes the improved reasoning capabilities of Strawberry AI and its potential integration into products like Chat-GPT, which could lead to more accurate and thoughtful AI responses.

Highlights

Open AI is reportedly on the verge of releasing a new model named 'Strawberry', which may have been demonstrated to the federal government.

The 'Strawberry' model is associated with slower thinking models that can plan ahead and excel in math and logic.

Open AI's demonstration of unreleased technology to government officials could set a new standard for AI developers, particularly concerning national security.

The technology behind 'Strawberry' could be used to generate high-quality training data for Open AI's next flagship model, 'Orion'.

Open AI is considering simplifying 'Strawberry' through a process called 'distillation' for use in a chat-based product before 'Orion' is released.

The 'Strawberry' model might be too slow for consumer settings, indicating a potential trade-off between accuracy and response time.

Open AI's monthly revenue from LLMs and Chat GPT subscriptions has tripled to $283 million, though the company is likely still operating at a loss.

The 'Orion' model is expected to be a significant advancement over current models, leaving competitors behind.

Open AI faces competition from models like Google's DeepMind and Anthropic's latest LLM, which are also improving in reasoning capabilities.

AI's ability to solve complex math problems could be lucrative in fields like aerospace and structural engineering.

The 'Strawberry' model has its roots in research by Ilya Sutskever, Open AI's former Chief Scientist.

New York Magazine's article humorously discusses the speculation around 'Strawberry' and AI, likening it to the excitement around tech product releases.

The potential applications of 'Strawberry' include improving reasoning in chatbots and reducing errors in AI-generated responses.

Open AI is raising more capital to support the development of advanced AI products like 'Strawberry'.

The 'Strawberry' model's slower pace is likened to human thought processes, taking time to reason and iterate on results.

The transcript suggests that Open AI may soon launch AI agents that could benefit from 'Strawberry's' capabilities.

Transcripts

apparently open AI is on the verge of

releasing their brand new model and now

we have a ton of additional information

about it including the fact that open AI

may actually have shown this new

technology to the federal government so

we're going to go over all of that right

now all right so we have two main

articles from the information that were

posted over the last couple days first

open AI shows strawberry so we've talked

a lot about strawberry talked a lot

about qar I'll link those videos in the

description below and I will drop a link

to the full article in the description

below open AI shows strawberry AI to the

feds and uses it to develop Orion and

Orion is new to me and apparently it is

their next Frontier Model now here's the

thing if you were ever doubting Jimmy

apples the infamous open AI leaker look

at this tweet from all the way back at

November 24th 2023 let's conquer the

cosmos mood curious Jimmy so with that

did he actually know and then as of

today yeah been waiting since last year

for this mood patients Jimmy and he's

referring to the information article

about Orion so maybe he knew about it so

let's read a little bit about the

article so this article by Stephanie

palazolo starts with in case you were

wondering why Sam Alman cryptically

posted a picture of strawberries earlier

this month the answer almost certainly

has to do with strawberry a mysterious

technical breakthrough that could help

open AI models complete complex tasks

such as math problems that

conversational AI has traditionally

struggled with so just a quick catchup

qar strawberry it's all referencing the

same thing slower thinking models models

that can actually plan ahead think

through problems multi-step reasoning

and actually do much better at math and

logic and reasoning these models don't

just return the first token they predict

they actually go off and think about it

and actually do long-term thinking in

mid July Reuters reported on the

existence of strawberry and this morning

we published this piece with even more

details and we will go over that in a

moment here is the most interesting bit

this summer his team Sam alman's team

demonstrated the technology to American

National Security officials said a

person with direct knowledge of those

meetings which haven't been previously

reported by demonstrating an unreleased

technology to government officials open

AI could be setting a new standard for

AI developers especially as advanced AI

increasingly becomes a national security

concern the demonstration could be part

of open ai's push to be more transparent

with policy makers who could cause the

company problems if they feel threatened

by its technology and scanning down a

bit and maybe also take a shot at meta

platforms for releasing openweight AI

that China and everyone else can access

so you all know how I feel about this

open source is the way to go to think

that a single private company is going

to be able to protect secrets to protect

the weights against an adversary like

China infiltrating and getting that IP

it's just so unlikely that they will be

able to protect it forever right here

meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says it's

inevitable that China will get it one

way or the other and I agree all it

takes is one slip up in security which

we're humans We Make Mistakes One slip

up and then China will have the weights

anyways and it's not just about the

weights you also need the compute to

power it you need a lot of other things

as well I did a full review of Mark

Zuckerberg's thoughts on open source and

it overlaps with my own quite a bit so

I'll drop that video in the description

below let's keep reading about

strawberry and why it matters to Orion

and again strawberry qar it is different

from Orion Oran is reportedly their next

Frontier Model that is going to leave

everybody else in the dust one of the

most important applications of

strawberry is to generate high quality

training data for Orion open ai's next

Flagship large language model that's in

development now why is that important

much of the training data on the

internet has already been used there's

almost none left that is public and

easily accessible now it's all behind

pay walls and authentication that's why

open AI has been doing deals with

different Publications and Reddit and

all these other companies and that's why

Twitter's data set is so important to x.

a but Sam Alman a while ago hinted that

maybe more and more training data isn't

actually necessary there's actually two

other approaches that are possible one

that they can actually do a lot more

with existing data and the second path

which it looks like they're talking

about here is actually generating in

synthetic data using one model for

another model now there's been a lot of

doubt that that is a sustainable model

because if you're creating data with one

model to be used on another model it's

basically derivative data a lot of

people think that large language models

aren't actually creating new knowledge

it's simply outputting what it already

knows so if it's only able to Output

what it already knows how could it

really train a model to be that much

better using strawberry could help Orion

reduce the number of hallucinations or

errors it produces resarch ERS tell me

that's because AI models learn from

their training data so the more correct

examples of complex reasoning they see

the better so what could be going on

here is they have a set of data and

Orion and qstar are doing long-term

thinking and multi-step planning and

basically thinking through the data to

make sure it's accurate and then

producing new data that is highly

accurate but there's also a push within

open AI to simplify and Shrink

strawberry through a process called

distillation so it can be used in a

chat-based product before Orion is

released so that tells me that the

technology behind strawberry might just

be so slow it's unusable in a consumer

setting and that would make sense and

I'll actually touch more on this in a

bit but the gist is strawberry and qar

takes time that's a feature not a bug it

actually takes a lot of time it thinks

through it just like humans would when

you ask someone something they don't

immediately spit out the first thing

that they think of or at least most

people don't instead they take time to

think through it they might take notes

especially hard questions reasoning

logic math these are things things that

we take our time with we write down

thoughts and we iterate on the result

here the information admits we're not

sure what a strawberry based product

might look like but we can make an

educated guess one obvious idea of what

strawberry could be an actual product is

incorporating strawberries improved

reasoning capabilities into Chachi BT

and that's the obvious one however

though these answers would likely be

more accurate they also might be slower

that means that strawberry might be ill

suited for applications where users

expect immediate responses like open AI

search GPT search engine but ideal for

less time sensitive use cases like

fixing non-critical coding errors in

GitHub now another good use case for

this is Agents if I have an agent

working for me 24 hours a day I really

don't need a response immediately I can

give it these superpowers powered by

qstar powered by strawberry allow it to

go do its thing and then bring me back

the best possible response you could

imagine a Noto distant future where chat

GPT users are able to toggle strawberry

on and off depending on how sensitive

they request are so that's the first

article from the information about Orion

that's the first time I've heard of it

so hopefully I'm bringing it to you for

the first time too now chubby from X who

is an amazing follow if you're not

already following him what chubby

touches on here is that strawberry is

slower because rather than just

responding immediately with whatever it

thinks is the next correct token it

actually takes its time and does what is

called system to thinking rather than

just system one thinking now let's read

more about strawberry so this is another

article from from the information open

AI raises to launch strawberry reasoning

AI to boost chatbot business so it is

reported that open AI is looking to

raise even more Capital which is insane

they've already raised so much but you

know what it costs a lot of money to

build these models at least for now its

researchers are trying to launch a new

artificial intelligence product they

believe can reason through tough

problems much better than its existing

AI here they just touch briefly on qar

we've already discussed it quite a bit

when given additional time to think the

strawberry model can also answer

customers questions about more

subjective topics such as product

marketing strategies to demonstrate

strawberry's prowess with language

related tasks open AI employees have

shown their co-workers how strawberry

can for example solve New York Times

connections a complex word puzzle so if

it were given the puzzle and just asked

to Output immediately what it thought

system one thinking then it's not able

to solve it nearly as effectively as if

it had time to iterate and use maybe

tree of thought or Chain of Thought or

any these other more advanced

capabilities where the model can

actually look ahead plan and test things

out come back and test other things out

as they see things are working or not

here the information talks about the

open AI business and its sales of llms

to corporations and of chat GPT

subscriptions have roughly tripled to

283 million in monthly Revenue compared

to a year ago that's insane though its

monthly losses are likely higher than

that as reported by the information and

I've already explained that they are

probably still still losing money but

they're not going to go bankrupt anytime

soon the company is privately valued at

86 billion but open AI prospects rest in

part on the eventual launch of a new

flagship llm it is currently developing

Cod named Orion so we already talked

about that now why is this next model so

important well open source pretty much

caught up with GPT 40 llama 370b llama

345b is a fraction of the price you can

run it locally you can fine-tune it and

it's nearly as good or as good as GPT 4

o for the majority of use cases and not

only that we have the clad models we

have grock 2 we have more grock models

coming we have perplexity for search so

the competition is heating up really

quickly and open AI really needs to

launch something incredible to jump

ahead because intelligence is being

driven down to a cost of nothing here

they talk about the same things that we

touched on in the last article but let

me just read it again open AI is also

using the bigger version of strawberry

to generate data for training Orion and

set a person with knowledge of the

situation that kind of AI generated data

is known as synthetic something we've

touched on a lot on this channel it

means that strawberry could help open AI

overcome limitations on obtaining enough

highquality data to train new models

from Real World data such as text or

images pulled from the internet and here

apparently open aai is going to be

launching agents soon so strawberry

could Aid upcoming open aai agents that

person said using strawberry to generate

higher quality training data could help

open AI reduce the number of Errors its

model generate otherwise known as

hallucinations now one of the biggest

blockers one of the biggest hurdles for

artificial intelligence in general to be

adopted within Enterprise settings and

more critical settings is the fact that

it still hallucinates there's a bunch of

things that you could do to reduce

hallucinations whether that's improving

your prompts having multiple agents talk

to each other and verify kind of like an

agentic system and pulling in

information from the internet to verify

and of course doing your own

verification but at the end of the day

if we want large language models to be

fully autonomous and to really run at

the scale that we believe it can it

really needs to reduce hallucinations to

nearly zero so the CEO of agent startup

minion Ai and former Chief Architect of

GitHub co-pilot says imagine a model

without hallucinations a model where you

ask it a logic puzzle and it's right on

the first try the reason why the model

is able to do that is because there is

less ambiguity in the training data so

it's guessing less so from Sam Alman at

an event back in may we feel like we

have enough data for this next model so

they are close and I really cannot wait

to see the next thing that they bring

out I have said this a lot it's really

hard for me to imagine that a private AI

company is going to have some completely

unique research or unique Tech that

allows them to make a 50 100%

Improvement on what's already out there

maybe 10% maybe 20% but a large leap

from what is already on the market today

is really hard for me to imagine just

because of the way that the scientific

community operates all of these papers

get published and unless open AI

research scientists are the only ones in

the world who actually thought of a new

idea and it didn't leak out anywhere

it's just very unlikely that they're

going to have some completely new

technology here they talk about why

solving math problems could be so

lucrative for open AI as a business AI

that solves tough math problems could be

a potentially lucrative application

given that existing AI isn't great at

math heavy Fields such as Aerospace and

Structural Engineering now that isn't

necessarily true Google's deepmind team

actually got I think silver at the math

olympiads so it's definitely possible

today already that AI can be extremely

good at math and right here they

reference what I just mentioned Google

deep mine said its AI would beat most

human participants in the international

mathematical Olympiad another major

rival anthropic said its latest llm

could write more complicated software

code than its prior llms could and

answer questions about charts and graphs

than to Improvement in its reasoning

capability so again competition is there

and specifically about anthropic the

cloud model is seemingly the favored

large language model for coding use

cases everybody seems to be using cursor

the IDE that is AI native in conjunction

with the claw models it continues with

to improve models reasoning some

startups have been using a cheap hack

that involves breaking down a problem

into smaller steps though the

workarounds are slow and expensive it's

kind of weird to call it a cheap hack

these are these are discovered prompt

techniques and Frameworks to wrap your

large language model to make them more

effective and I don't see that as a

cheap hack at all and yeah they tend to

be slower but what if you just power it

with Gro grq and then all of a sudden

you have all the benefits of these

additional layers of technique to get

the best response but you're also

getting hundreds of tokens per second so

it ends with what ilas saw strawberry

has its roots in research it was started

Years Ago by ilas suser then open ai's

Chief scientist he recently left to

start a competing AI lab before he left

open AI researchers Jacob and Simon

sedor built on SS's work by developing a

new math solving model qar alarming some

researchers focused on AI safety and

basically the entire super alignment

team has left since then so what did

Ilia really see and last just to add a

pinch of fun to this from New York

Magazine the AI guys are driving

themselves mad and this is in reference

to Strawberry man and qar and the

strawberry model Jimmy apples and all of

this conjecture and speculation and you

know what it's all in good fun it's the

same thing that basically every other

industry does when apple is about to

release a new phone everybody who

follows Apple starts talking about what

it could possibly be and talking about

the leaks and you know what we're so

excited about what's to come why not add

a little speculation and try to figure

out what might come so this article is

pretty funny it just talks about how I

rule the world Mo was responded to by

Sam Alman and all of his hypey tweets

which is great and here's the awesome

part they actually included one of my

videos about qar which is flattering

it's so cool they also go on to talk

about Lily Ashwood who everybody's

trying to figure out if she's AI or not

we talked about that on the live stream

last week so there's definitely a lot

going on a lot of fun and as soon as the

new open AI model comes out you know I'm

going to cover it in depth and I'll give

you all the information so be sure to

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reminder I have an awesome newsletter so

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