Scarlet & Violet Winners & Losers: Who's Gaining??
Summary
TLDRIn this video, host Ryan discusses the evolving market trends of Pokémon cards, specifically focusing on the Scarlet and Violet series. He provides a month-over-month analysis of card values, highlighting the performance of various sets including Pala Evolved, Obsidian Flames, and Twilight Masquerade. Ryan emphasizes the importance of monitoring these trends for collectors and investors, noting the unique appeal of certain cards and sets, and speculates on the future value of these collectibles.
Takeaways
- 🌟 Ryan, the host, is discussing the Pokémon card market trends for the Scarlet and Violet series, similar to his analysis for Sword and Shield.
- 📈 He has been tracking the top 20 singles cards and booster boxes for about a year, and now he's doing the same for Scarlet and Violet.
- 🎉 Scarlet and Violet are about a year and a half old, and Ryan is impressed with the sets released in this time.
- 📊 Ryan emphasizes the importance of taking the data with a grain of salt, as Pokémon card sets often experience a 'pop and flop' phenomenon where they start high and gradually decrease in value.
- 📉 The Scarlet and Violet base set is less desirable, with booster boxes starting at $90 but beginning to rise again.
- 🔥 Pala Evolved has been popular, with its booster boxes nearing $140, and the Pokémon Center exclusive Elite Trainer Box maintaining high value.
- 🐟 The Magikarp card from Pala Evolved has had a fluctuating value but seems to be settling in the $110-115 range, influenced by its low PSA 10 gem mint rate.
- 🚀 The Raichu card from Pala Evolved continues to rise in value, driven by its incredibly rare gem mint 10 rate and fan-favorite status.
- 🔥 Obsidian Flames and Pokémon 151 are highlighted, with 151 consistently being a strong set with high value, despite poor print quality.
- 📉 Paradox Rift and Paldan Fates have had mixed results, with some cards struggling to maintain value, while others like the bubble Mew and Charizard are holding steady.
- 🌙 Twilight Masquerade is stealing the spotlight, with its booster boxes and key cards like Greninja significantly increasing in value, and trainers being a significant part of the top cards in the set.
Q & A
What is the main focus of the video script provided?
-The main focus of the video script is to discuss the trends and values of Pokémon trading cards, specifically the Scarlet and Violet series, and to compare them with other series like Sword and Shield, Sun and Moon, and XY.
What does the speaker typically do for the Sword and Shield series of Pokémon cards?
-The speaker typically tracks the top 20 singles cards and booster boxes for the Sword and Shield series, analyzing them on a month-over-month basis.
How long has the speaker been tracking the Sword and Shield series?
-The speaker has been tracking the Sword and Shield series for about a year.
What is the current status of the Scarlet and Violet series according to the script?
-The Scarlet and Violet series is about a year and a half old, and the speaker has started to track its performance in a similar manner to the Sword and Shield series.
What is the speaker's view on the Scarlet and Violet base set?
-The speaker believes that the Scarlet and Violet base set is less desirable, with its booster boxes starting at $90 and creeping their way back up.
How does the speaker describe the performance of Pala Eevee evolved in terms of card value?
-Pala Eevee evolved has been on fire recently, with some cards experiencing significant booms, but overall, it was not a great month for price growth from single cards.
What is the current situation with the Pokémon Center exclusive Elite Trainer Box?
-The Pokémon Center exclusive Elite Trainer Box is performing well, with prices hitting at the door of $140.
What is the speaker's opinion on the Twilight Masquerade set?
-The speaker believes that Twilight Masquerade is a great set that has garnered a lot of attention and is expected to be very special, despite initially not being thought of as the best set of the Scarlet and Violet era.
What is unique about the Twilight Masquerade set according to the top chase cards?
-Three out of the top five chase cards in Twilight Masquerade are trainers, which is unusual for an Ultra-Modern era set.
What does the speaker think about the future of the Scarlet and Violet series?
-The speaker is excited about the future of the Scarlet and Violet series, expecting to learn a lot as more sets are released and the market reacts to them.
What is the speaker's approach to analyzing the Pokémon card market?
-The speaker uses a data-driven approach, looking at month-over-month views and tracking the performance of individual cards and sets to understand market trends.
Outlines
📊 Pokemon Card Market Trends: Scarlet & Violet Analysis
Ryan, the 'pika pika Papa,' discusses the trends in the Pokémon card market, focusing on the Scarlet and Violet series. He mentions that while Sword and Shield are usually the topic, today's focus is on the Scarlet and Violet series, which has been tracked month over month for about a year. Ryan highlights that the base set of Scarlet and Violet is not as desirable, with booster boxes starting as low as $90 but now increasing. He also talks about the Pala Evolved set, which has seen a lot of excitement with certain cards but overall not a great month for price growth. The Pokémon Center exclusive Elite Trainer Box continues to perform well. Ryan also speculates on the potential shift in attention from Pala Evolved to the new Twilight Masquerade set.
🌟 Spotlight on Obsidian Flames and Pokémon 151
The script moves on to discuss the Obsidian Flames and Pokémon 151 sets. Obsidian Flames, despite having green cards indicating growth, lacks star power with its cards mostly valued at $2 to $7. The Charizard card from this set has been inconsistent, but Ryan sees potential for it to find support. Pokémon 151, on the other hand, is a beloved set with consistent growth and high values, even with poor print quality. Ryan mentions an upcoming reprint or restock of 151 tins and booster bundles, which could affect the market. He also notes the performance of the Blastoise card from 151, which has been steadily growing in value.
📉 Market Performance of Paradox Rift and Paldan Fates
Ryan reviews the performance of the Paradox Rift and Paldan Fates sets, noting that Paradox Rift has struggled to find its footing, while Paldan Fates has shown some resilience with its anchor cards. Despite the initial excitement around Paldan Fates' shiny cards, their value is starting to fall. However, the bubble Mew and Charizard cards seem to be holding their ground. Ryan appreciates the uniqueness and chase factor of the baby shinies in Paldan Fates, predicting a bright future for the set despite potential turbulence ahead.
🌙 Twilight Masquerade's Impact on the Market
The script concludes with an analysis of the Twilight Masquerade set, which has captured the market's attention, overshadowing other sets like Temporal Forces. Ryan is intrigued by the fact that three of the top five chase cards in Twilight Masquerade are trainers, which is unusual for the ultra-modern era. He discusses the performance of the Greninja card and the Carmine card, both of which have the potential to be special. Ryan also mentions the Blood Moon URS Saluna card, which, despite its current decline, he believes has potential due to its unique artwork and appeal.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Pokemon
💡Scarlet and Violet
💡Trading Cards
💡Booster Boxes
💡Market Trends
💡Pikachu
💡Sealed Products
💡PSA 10 Gem Mint
💡Eveve
💡Investing
💡Chase Cards
💡Trainers
Highlights
Introduction to the video series discussing the month-over-month trends of Pokémon cards, specifically focusing on the Scarlet and Violet sets.
Scarlet and Violet sets are about a year and a half old, and the presenter has been tracking their trends for a year.
The presenter will not aggregate the top 20 singles cards until the entire era is over, but will start looking at the sets month over month.
Scarlet and Violet base set is less desirable, with no card expected to be over $20 in value in the near future.
Pala Evolved set has been performing well, with its booster boxes increasing in value and attention being drawn to other sets like Twilight Masquerade.
The Magikarp card from Pala Evolved has seen a plateau and spike pattern over the last year, suggesting a healthy market.
The Iono card from Pala Evolved has seen significant price drops, possibly due to the overall performance of trainers in the sword and shield era.
Raichu card from Pala Evolved continues to rise in value, driven by its rarity and popularity among fans.
Obsidian Flames set has many green cards, but lacks star power, with the Charizard card showing potential for future gains.
Pokemon 151 set continues to be popular and valuable, with a possible upcoming reprint or restock that may impact its market value.
Paradox Rift set has struggled to find its footing, with Roaring Moon being a steady performer in the set.
Pald Fates set has a mix of anchor cards and baby shinies, which may provide uniqueness and chase factor for collectors.
Temporal Forces set is liked for its card lineup and art, despite not being as popular as Twilight Masquerade.
Twilight Masquerade set has become very popular, with three of the top five chase cards being trainers, which is unusual for the ultra-modern era.
Eevee card from Twilight Masquerade is noted for its potential to anchor the set, despite not taking off as quickly as Greninja.
The Carmine card from Twilight Masquerade is highlighted for its special artwork and potential as a valuable trainer card.
Blood Moon URS Saluna is considered an underrated card with potential, despite its current market drop.
The presenter expresses excitement for upcoming sets, particularly Stellar Crown, and the continuation of the video series.
Transcripts
what is going on all you Pokemon
Collective Maniacs out there this is
Ryan the pika pika Papa and guess what
we are not talking about sword and
shield today this is just to show you
what we typically do for sword and
shield we look at top 20 singles cards
we look at booster boxes we track them
by month over month we've been doing it
for about a year now well guess what I
Warehouse the same information for
scarlet and violet and I asked you if
you'd like to see the month over month
view for scarlet and violet and you said
yes so guess what we're talking today we
are going to be talking about Scarlet
and Violet from the same month over
Monon view that we do for sword and
shield and sun and moon and XY you know
it's hard to believe scarlet and violet
is about a year and a half old that is
just absolutely mind-boggling to me we
have seen some awesome sets come out uh
and we're going to start looking at it
like this now I'm not going to be able
to aggregate the top 20 singles cards
until the entire era is over like I've
done for sword and shield and sun and
moon but there is no reason why we can't
start looking at these sets month over
month the only thing I will say is
remember take a lot of this with a grain
of salt traditionally sets go through
this Pokémon pop and flop they start
super high they work their way down
although in scarlet and violet we have
not seen as much flop as we've seen in
the past but this is an awesome way for
us to kind of keep a finger on the pulse
of what's going on month over month in
particular sets and most importantly
we're also going to look at some
individual cards so with that being said
listen if you enjoy this type of content
if you love the data driven approach hit
that subscribe button if you haven't
already we do fun stuff like this all
the time if you like what you see give
us a thumbs up and if you have questions
or comments drop them down below so
without further Ado let's start talking
about some scarlet and violet and very
first one we're going to talk about is
we're working our way from scarlet and
violet base forward and uh scarlet and
violet base did one thing right it
continued the trend of being a uh less
desirable set because Scarlet Violet
base just can't seem to get a whole lot
of momentum I think we are uh a couple
short months away from scarlet and
violet possibly not having a single card
over $20 in value which kind of breaks
my heart a little bit now the booster
boxes were all the way down at $90 but
the booster boxes are starting to creep
their way back up now if you look at Sun
and Moon base and sword and shield base
you know the base sets even though the
cards don't command a high price their
booster boxes you know they have a
pretty high dollar attached to them but
just remember those were very different
collecting environments both of those
Bas sets came out pre pandemic pump and
certainly not the frenzy that we're in
right now from scarlet and violet so I'm
not saying Scarlet Violet booster boxes
at $95 isn't a great steal I'm just
saying keep it in perspective when
you're trying to compare it to those
other sets however Pala evolved has been
on fire as of late now listen it has had
a lot of really exciting cards in it
we've seen a whole lot of booms we've
seen cards going crazy uh but overall
not a b not a great month not a very
very exciting month in terms of price
growth from Singles cards now the
booster box is hitting at the knocking
at the door of $140 so that continues to
go up and obviously the Pokemon Center
exclusive Elite Trainer Box is just
doing what it's doing and doing well uh
however I wonder if now that we have
Twilight masquerade and I think Twilight
masquerade you know according to the
market and you know according to a lot
of people is a great set I think there's
a lot of tension on Twilight Twilight
masquerade sealed products a lot of
attention on the Gren engine some other
cards we'll talk about that later but it
might be pulling away from Pala evolved
a little bit and one of the things that
I thought was really interesting to look
at was how these Pala evolved you know
the chase cards have performed so the
Magikarp card over there you know it is
finally starting to slow down a little
bit and you will see that over the last
year it is kind of plateaued and then
spiked and then plateaued and then
spiked and after the last Spike it
started to come its way back down and
it's almost plateauing at the previous
plateau and for me I think that's
healthy I'm fine if this card settles in
the 110 115 range I certainly don't
think this needs to spike up to a $200
$300 card I just don't think that makes
a ton of sense I think the artwork is
beautiful but obviously a very hard card
to get in a PSA 10 gem mint holder right
I think the gem rate on this is like 22%
so that's driving a lot of the value
there the other thing is the iono card
um trainers in general in the sword and
shield era didn't perform really well
but I do think that the artwork uh in
scarlet and violet for a lot of these
trainers is actually leveled up quite a
bit and we're going to talk about that a
little bit more later on video and the
iono card was you know the first in my
mind the first big trainer to come out
obviously awesome artwork coupled with
amazing card play so this card's shot
through the roof uh but it's been
working its way down it's just been
slowly stair stepping its way down I
don't know where the Bottom's going to
be I don't know where it's going to find
that support level but it's down to 60
bucks right now which is kind of
expected when you're talking about Ultra
Modern trainer cards like this now the
card that has not slown down but has
continued to rise is this Raichu card
right here now another card that I think
is being driven by incredibly rare gem
mint 10 rate right like this thing is a
177% gem rate that's as low as you're
going to see matter of fact the lowest
that I can think of to compare this to
is the burning Shadow Charizard at a 17%
I mean this card is really low there is
less than 230 of these in PSA 10 gem
mint holders out there in the world I
mean these are just incredibly hard to
find in high grade and I certainly think
that that's helped driving the price
plus it's Raichu like that's a fan
favorite absolutely love this card so I
think we have three awesome cards from
Pala evolved a little bit of the Thunder
is being lost it's being stolen for
Twilight masquerade which is good we've
got more exciting sets coming up so
we'll have to see where this all settles
out but I still think pal evolved is a
fantastic set and I think it's going to
do really well in the long run so the
next two that we're looking at obsidian
flames and the monster that is Pokemon
151 now there's a lot of green in
obsidian flames and at first when I sat
back and looked at this I thought oh
obsidian Flames is doing really well but
when you look at it I mean these are $2
$3 $5 $7 cards you know there's just not
a lot of not a lot of star power there
and obsidian Flames even though it's a
Charizard set now I will say the
Charizard up there at the very top it's
kind of been wishy-washy it's been
having Peaks and valleys and Peaks again
uh I think it's starting to find some
support which is exciting for me because
I think there are some certain things
about that Charizard card which give it
a little bit of opportunity to maybe
it's not going to be a top 10 card I
don't think but gives it some
opportunity for some relatively decent
gains in the long run and then of course
151 just does what 151 does it's just
green it feels like it's green all the
time it is absolutely insane uh the
amount of love and how awesome this set
is it's another set same with obsidian
flames you know that suffers from really
poor print quality which I thinks
Pokemon 151 didn't need poor print
quality to have really high value cards
because they're absolutely amazing and
everybody loves that set but when you
couple all of that together Pokemon 151
is going to be great for a very long
time and now you know we're going to
have this little restock or reprint or
whatever it is of 151 tins and booster
bundles and we'll have to see how big
that is we'll have to see the impact it
has but I'll tell you right now pika
pika papa is not sweating it one bit
matter of fact look even the ultra pre
collection boxes those Mew Ultra premium
collection boxes are having a time
they're all the way up to $126 and the
Pokemon Center exclusive etbs are up to
130 bucks absolutely stunning so of
course I was talking about the Charizard
from obsidian flames and it looks to me
like it's starting to find a support
line right there in the low $40 range
and again this is a card it doesn't have
a low population there's about 4,000 of
these uh in PSA 10 holders but there's
been over 18,000 that have sent in to
get graded so again another card with a
really low PSA 10 gem rate which is
going to help keep the prices somewhat
competitive I know those PSA 10s are
going for about $200 and a raw card is
going for about 40 bucks right so you're
talking about you know about a five
times uh value so the raw card versus
the PSA 10 card so it'll be interesting
to see where both of those go in the
long run then of course the Blastoise I
wanted to call that out because we talk
about the Charizard from 151 all the
time but the blasto has actually had a
really good couple months now what we
see in 151 is there's kind of this band
they kind of peek and Valley and Peak
and Valley between a support line and
then a resistance line and the Blastoise
has done just that but it is at the very
top um of that support at that
resistance line so we'll have to see if
it's able to break through here anytime
soon and as I said 151 really from top
to bottom is just a stunner of a set I
love this Squirtle card and when you
look at the way this card has grown ever
since it came out just really healthy
really organic really slow and steady
upward to the right growth I mean that
is what you want to see and I could have
picked any card from 151 I truly could
have like I just picked the Squirtle
because it's my personal favorite uh but
you can pick any of the cards up there
and there's just a really Healthy Growth
Trend to them again we'll have to wait
and see what this reprint or restock
does to the overall market value um I
don't think it's going to be too much
but who knows I've certainly been wrong
in the past and it is something we have
to make note of now next one's right
here Paradox Rift and palan Fates and
when you first look at this you're going
to go oh my God there is blood in the
streets for both of these and I will say
Paradox Rift has had a very very rough
go of things it just it can't seem to
find its footing you know you got the
Roaring moon at the top which has been
really steady in that $50 to $55 range
and I actually think that that's a
pretty decent entry point uh for that
card I think it found its support line
early I don't see it breaking below 50
anytime soon uh but I certainly don't
see it spiking up either so if it's a
card you just want to stow away thinking
that hey maybe when Scarlet Violet comes
to the end you think that's going to be
one of the cards that's going to pop off
you know there's going to be a lot more
Paradox Rift that's going to be open so
you'll have plenty of opportunities for
it but it's been awesome to watch that
card really find the support line uh
early on and then paldan Fates you know
paldan f Fates has the bubble Mew
obviously it's got the Charizard card
it's got shinies in it but the thing is
the shinies are actually starting to
fall so we're going to have to see if
the bubble Mew and the Charizard at the
very top uh can go ahead and hold on for
the long run but again you see all of
this red and pald and Fates but in
actuality the set has been doing
relatively well and so I just pulled
three of the cards of course I'm going
to pull the bubble Mew and the Charizard
to talk about those uh and then of
course I had to show you know the
Charmander right this was one of the
high dollar high value big chase baby
shinies as soon as pald and Fates came
out and it's been coming down right it's
down about 177% over the last 6 months
certainly not the bottom falling out by
any means considering 177% over 6 months
for a brand new set that is not a huge
drop but then you got the other two
these are the anchor cards and I think
they are strong enough and when you look
at them they've kind of bounced around
like we saw with those 151 cards you
know no crazy spikes up no crazy drops
down like the market just feels like
that Charizard at least right now is
about a $110 card it waivers anywhere
from 100 to 115 but it's going to float
right in that 0 $10 range and then the
me which has been working its way up
with some ups and downs and especially
we saw a sharp down a couple months ago
but it immediately rebr rebounded like
is that card destined to be a $100 card
or is it going to say in that $80 range
you know we're going to have to keep an
eye on this but the thing I like about
pald and Fates is I do think that the
baby shinies give it some uniqueness and
I think it gives it some Chase factor
and then I do think that these two cards
are awesome awesome anchors there at the
very top no booster boxes obviously it's
a specialty set so those Pokemon Center
exclusive etbs with the mimik QQ stamp
promo in it big big fan of that so I
think pald and Fates does have a bright
future although it might have some uh
turbulent months ahead but long run I
think it's going to be AOK the next sets
we're looking at right here temporal
forces and of course Twilight masquerade
now temporal forces I'm going to share
with you right now uh I still really
like it I do I think Twilight masquerade
has stolen almost all of the Thunder and
everybody's focused on that rightfully
so I think Twilight masquerade is going
to be a very special special Set uh you
know these sets kind of identify
themselves early on and Twilight
masquerade certainly has done that I
keep waiting for the bottom to fall out
of this Greninja as it hasn't and it
hasn't yet even though Twilight
masquerade is still relatively new you
know when I went back and I looked at
how evolving Skies performed and I am
not saying Twilight masquerade is
evolving Skies I'm not saying that right
but what I am saying is you look at some
of these big sets and a lot of them the
market kind of realized it early on so
we'll have to see I still want to wait a
couple more months to see what happens
with Twilight masquerade but at least
right now the market seems to think that
this set is going to be absolute fire I
mean booster boxes all the way up at
$123 obviously the Greninja card is up
there at almost 300 bucks and you know
temporal forces I again I like that card
lineup I really do I think there's some
awesome art in there um and it might fly
under the radar for a little bit and it
might not be the top three top four sets
of the whole scarlet and violet era but
I do think that getting those at $100 a
booster box I think it's going to end up
I don't know maybe it'll be like a
silver Tempest type set or maybe it'll
be like an astral Radiance type set or
something like that like maybe not as
big as lost origin or evolving Skies or
chilling rain or Fusion strike you know
but I certainly think it's going to be
uh a good set and we'll just have to see
how it all plays out cuz Lord knows we
have a whole lot of Life coming ahead of
us in the scarlet and violet era now one
of the things I wanted to call out about
Twilight masquerade before we get off of
that is when you look at the top five
Chase cards in Twilight masquerade three
of those top five Chase cards are
trainers okay and we don't typically see
real trainer heavy sets here in this
Ultra modern era and then four of the
top six are all actual trainers as well
right so when you think about it four of
the top six cards are trainers and these
are the top six in terms of actual value
and then when you get down below that
you have a lot of the Mask cards right
which are coming in there so we're going
to see a lot of shuffling in the top of
the Twilight masquerade set and those
are some of the reasons when I did my
preview of it I was like you know I like
this set I think Greninja will be good
in all transparency I never thought
Twilight masquerade was going to do this
not in a million years you could I would
have bet anything in the world that
would be okay set but not the best set
so far of scarlet and violet era but it
just goes to show you Hey listen no
matter how much research you do
sometimes you can be wrong but what I
did want to talk about was some of the
cards here that I do think have an
opportunity to be special and I do like
this eveve card believe it or not and I
know um the artwork is super cute and it
might not be taking off like the
Greninja right now it's you know up a
little bit it's up about 30% it's crazy
to say 30% is a little bit but when
you're comparing it to the Greninja
which is up you know 100 something perc
from where it started but the Eevee card
I think has the opportunity to really
kind of anchor this set as well and if I
had to pick one I love the Carmine card
I know that's an easy pick because it's
the number two most valuable card in the
set right now because obviously this is
the big chase trainer card but I do
think the artwork on this is special and
I think this Carmine card you know
coupled with the iono that we talked
about earlier in this video I think
those two cards have the opportunity
from a trainer perspective you know to
be really special in The Scarlet and
violet era and then I've said it before
I really like this Blood Moon URS saluna
I love this artwork for whatever reason
it just gives me it gives me the kind of
Vibes that hey it might fly under the
radar as you look at it it's down about
36% versus where it came out I'm not
buying it anytime soon I'm going to keep
an eye on it I'm see when we find those
support lines uh but I do think that if
I can get this at a relatively cheap
price I think I would stash a couple of
these away I like the artwork I think
it's a cool card and I think it's got
some opportunity and again I just don't
see four of the top six cards being
trainers forever I just don't think the
support is there for trainers right now
so I think we're going to see a whole
lot of shuffling there so really that's
it I mean we have you know new sets that
have come out uh but they're too new for
us to talk about right now I'm really
excited for Stellar Crown that's coming
out um you know shrouded fables kind of
is what it is we'll have to see where
that ends up shaking out and I'm very
excited like I said for Stellar Crown
I'm excited for the rest of scarlet and
violet I'm excited to continue this
video series cuz I think we're going to
learn a lot as we go through this uh and
I hope you're excited about it too I
love looking at month- over Monon views
I think it helps us keep a finger on the
pulse of what's going on at a macro
level and again I think it helps us
level up from investing and collecting
standpoint so if you found value in this
video and you want to see more you know
what to do hit that subscribe button if
you have questions or comments drop them
down below and as always if you like
what you see give us a big old thumbs up
I appreciate you more than I can say you
have an epic one and I'll talk to you
soon everybody thanks bye
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