ICT 2024 Mentorship \ Lecture #12 August 19, 2024(Wizard Version)

Summary

In this episode, the speaker discusses trading strategies focusing on the Jackson Hall Symposium and its impact on market behavior, especially on TGIF days. They emphasize the importance of recognizing market patterns like the P3, institutional order flow, and the lunch macro for effective trading. The speaker also highlights the significance of observing these patterns over time to build confidence before executing trades, aiming for long-term bullish outcomes.

Takeaways

• 📅 Jackson Hall Symposium: The speaker suggests keeping an eye on the calendar for news around Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday, which can affect market behavior, completing the 'TGIF' cycle.
• 👍 Subscribe Reminder: The speaker reminds viewers to subscribe to their channel and give a thumbs up if they are new to the series.
• 📉 Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Week: The speaker mentions that if the market has shown TGIF on any of those days, it's considered a 'nonform Peril' week with low trading probability.
• 📈 ICT's Long-Term Bullish Outlook: The speaker states that ICT is long-term bullish and is not looking for sell opportunities unless there are unexpected geopolitical events.
• 🛑 Trading Strategy: The speaker explains that ICT uses different contract sizes for buy and sell positions, with larger contracts for buys and smaller for sells.
• 📊 Price Action Analysis: The speaker discusses the importance of understanding price action, specifically targeting the minimum of a water block as the first target for trades.
• 📝 Volume Imbalance: The speaker highlights the significance of recognizing volume imbalances on the daily chart as part of the long-term target for trades.
• 🕒 Trading Timeframes: The speaker emphasizes the importance of trading within specific timeframes, such as holding trades until 3 p.m. for optimal results.
• 📉 Lunch Macro: The speaker introduces the concept of the 'lunch macro', a period between 11:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. where the market may create a low to stop out profitable traders.
• 📈 Algorithmic Price Action: The speaker mentions that the market may use algorithmic trading to reach certain highs or lows, especially around 3:45 p.m. to close business for the day.
• 🚀 Building Confidence: The speaker advises viewers to observe the market patterns month after month to build confidence before executing trades based on the discussed strategies.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The main topic of the video is the explanation of the presenter's understanding of certain trading concepts and strategies, specifically focusing on the Jackson Hall Symposium and the TGIF market pattern.

What is the Jackson Hall Symposium mentioned in the video?

The Jackson Hall Symposium is an event that the presenter suggests provides important market news, which can be found on the calendar and influences the market's TGIF pattern.

What does TGIF stand for in the context of the video?

In the context of the video, TGIF stands for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, which are the days the presenter suggests to watch for market completion of certain patterns.

What is the significance of the TGF in the video?

TGF is a term that the presenter mentions but does not explain in the video, indicating it is important for identifying nonform Peril weeks and for trading strategies, with a fuller explanation to be given in a future video.

Why does the presenter suggest focusing on Mondays for trading?

The presenter suggests focusing on Mondays because they believe that is when the highest probability of significant price action will occur, especially in nonform Peril weeks.

What does the presenter mean by 'long-term bullish' in the context of ICT?

The presenter means that ICT has a positive long-term outlook on the market, implying that they are generally looking for buying opportunities rather than selling.

What is the significance of the extreme contract size for buy and the lowest contract size for sell in the video?

The presenter explains that when ICT is looking to buy, they use the extreme contract size, but when looking to sell, they use the lowest contract size, indicating a difference in the level of commitment to the trade based on market direction.

What is the P3 that the presenter refers to in the video?

P3, as referred to in the video, seems to be a specific price action pattern or strategy that the presenter uses to predict market movements, which involves observing the market's opening and subsequent behavior.

What is the importance of the 9:30 candle in the trading strategy discussed in the video?

The 9:30 candle is significant in the presenter's trading strategy as it represents the opening price of the market after 9:30 AM, which is used to identify entry points for trades.

What does the presenter mean by 'institutional order flow' and 'buy side liquidity'?

The presenter refers to 'institutional order flow' as the market movement driven by large institutional trades, and 'buy side liquidity' as the point at which the market has enough buying pressure to reverse a downward trend.

What is the 'lunch macro' mentioned in the video, and how does it affect trading?

The 'lunch macro' refers to the market behavior between 11:30 AM and 1:30 PM, during which the presenter suggests that the market may create a downward movement to stop out profitable buyers, allowing for a potential reversal.

What is the significance of the 3 p.m. and 3:45 p.m. time frames in the video?

The 3 p.m. and 3:45 p.m. time frames are significant as they are presented as key times for the market to complete its business for the day, with the potential for significant price movements or reversals.

How does the presenter suggest building confidence in trading strategies?

The presenter suggests observing the trading patterns month after month to build confidence before executing trades, rather than blindly following strategies without understanding.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Trading Strategies and Market Analysis

The speaker introduces Episode 12 of the ICT mentorship series, focusing on trading strategies and market analysis. They mention the importance of subscribing and engaging with the channel. A clarification on 'Jackson Hall Symposium' is given, suggesting it's a significant event that traders should be aware of, as it may affect market behavior. The speaker emphasizes the 'TGIF' concept, indicating specific days when trading is less probable. They also discuss the long-term bullish stance of ICT and the strategy of using different contract sizes for buy and sell positions. The speaker provides a detailed explanation of price action, volume balance, and the significance of the P3 (Plan 3) in trading, suggesting that understanding these concepts can lead to successful trading outcomes.

05:01

📊 Market Behavior and Entry Points

This paragraph delves into the specifics of market behavior, mentioning the importance of observing the 9:30 a.m. candlestick as a potential entry point for trades. The speaker explains the concept of institutional water flow and how it can be used to identify profitable trades. They also discuss the work of Larry Williams and ICT's interpretation of his trading philosophy, emphasizing the importance of buying below the opening price when the daily target is known. The speaker provides a detailed analysis of how to identify and capitalize on market manipulation and distribution patterns, concluding with the advice to observe these patterns over time to build trading confidence.

10:01

⏰ Trading Timing and Macro Patterns

The final paragraph discusses the importance of timing in trading, particularly focusing on the lunch macro between 11:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. The speaker explains how the market uses this period to stop out profitable traders, creating a new bias for the afternoon. They detail the process of identifying swing lows before 11:30 a.m. and how the market algorithm refers to these patterns post-lunch. The speaker also touches on the final algorithmic run around 3:45 p.m., which is used to close any remaining market imbalances. The paragraph concludes with a reminder to observe and understand these patterns before engaging in trades, and an invitation for feedback and questions from the audience.

Keywords

💡ICT

ICT, presumably an acronym for Institutional Control Theory or a similar concept, is a central theme in the video. It refers to a long-term bullish perspective on the market, suggesting that the speaker uses this theory to inform their trading strategies and outlook. The script mentions ICT's preference for buying at lower contract sizes for sell positions and larger contract sizes for buy positions, indicating a strategic approach to trading based on market analysis.

💡Jackson Hall Symposium

The Jackson Hall Symposium is mentioned as an event that provides market news, which traders can use to anticipate market movements. It is suggested that news around Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday could impact the market, completing the 'TGIF' cycle. This term is used to highlight the importance of staying informed about market events for effective trading.

💡TGIF

TGIF, an acronym for 'Thank God It's Friday', is used in the script to denote specific days of the week (Wednesday, Thursday, Friday) when the market completes its trading cycle. The speaker implies that recognizing these days can help traders identify non-form Peril weeks, where trading probabilities are low, and strategize accordingly.

💡Price Action

Price action is a term used to describe the movement of the market price over time. In the script, it is a key concept for understanding market behavior and making trading decisions. The speaker discusses using price action to identify entry and exit points for trades, emphasizing its importance in the trading strategy outlined in the video.

💡Volume Balance

Volume balance refers to the equilibrium between buying and selling pressure in the market, often indicated by the volume of trades. The script mentions a 'volume imbalance' on a daily chart, which the speaker uses as a long-term target for their trading strategy, suggesting that understanding volume balance is crucial for identifying potential market moves.

💡P3

P3, likely referring to a specific price pattern or trading strategy, is discussed in the context of market opening and expected movements. The speaker describes a scenario where the market opens, trades lower, and then closes at a certain point, which they refer to as ICT's P3. This concept is used to illustrate a potential trading opportunity based on market patterns.

💡Liquidity

Liquidity in the context of trading refers to the ease with which assets can be bought or sold without affecting their price. The script mentions 'buy side liquidity' and 'sell side imbalance' as critical factors for identifying trading opportunities. The speaker uses these terms to explain how market movements can be influenced by the presence or absence of liquidity.

💡Manipulation

In the script, manipulation refers to the strategic actions taken by market participants, possibly institutions, to influence the market price. The speaker describes a scenario where the market goes lower as a form of manipulation before distribution, suggesting that understanding such tactics is important for anticipating market moves.

💡Distribution

Distribution in the context of the script seems to refer to the process by which market participants spread out their trades over time to avoid influencing the market price significantly. It is mentioned in the sequence of market actions after manipulation, indicating a phase where sellers spread their selling pressure.

💡3 p.m. Candle

The '3 p.m. candle' refers to a specific point in time during the trading day when the speaker expects significant market activity. The script mentions holding trades until this time, suggesting that the 3 p.m. candle is a crucial time frame for traders to consider when planning their exit strategies.

💡Lunch Macro

The 'lunch macro' is a term used in the script to describe a period of the trading day, from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m., during which the market is expected to exhibit certain behaviors. The speaker suggests that this period can be used to identify stop-loss levels and anticipate market movements, particularly for traders with a bullish outlook.

💡Entry Point

An entry point in trading is the price level at which a trader decides to enter a market position. The script discusses identifying entry points based on market patterns and institutional behavior, such as the 'institutional water flow' and 'buy side liquidity', emphasizing the importance of precise timing for successful trades.

💡Williams %R

Williams %R, also known as the Williams Percent Range, is a technical indicator used to measure overbought and oversold market conditions. The script mentions Larry Williams and his views on trading below the opening price, suggesting that the indicator can be used to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities.

💡Macro

In the context of the script, a 'macro' seems to refer to a larger trading strategy or pattern that occurs over a specific time frame. The speaker discusses the 'lunch macro' and 'last macro', indicating that these are significant periods during the trading day when certain market behaviors are expected to occur.

Highlights

Introduction to Episode 12 of ICT mentorship focusing on Jackson Hall Symposium and its impact on market behavior.

Explanation of 'TGIF' and its significance in identifying nonform Peril weeks for trading.

ICT's long-term bullish stance and trading strategy differences between buy and sell positions.

Importance of understanding market volume balance as a long-term target for ICT.

Concept of P3 and its role in market opening and trading patterns.

Use of 9:30 candlestick to determine market direction and entry points.

Larry Williams' approach to buying and its contrast with ICT's strategy.

The significance of observing institutional order flow and building trading confidence.

Lunch macro's effect on the market between 11:30 to 1:30 and its impact on stop-loss triggers.

Market behavior post-lunch macro and the algorithmic reference to bullish bias after 1:30 PM.

The final algorithmic run around 3:45 PM and its purpose in closing market imbalances.

Identification of key high and low points in market patterns for trading decisions.

The process of observing market patterns month over month to validate trading strategies.

Importance of not rushing to trade but observing and building confidence in strategies.

Summary of the episode's learnings and an invitation for feedback and questions from viewers.

Transcripts

hey folks welcome back to episode 12 ICT

2024 mentorship in this video I'm going

to explain my understanding as the way I

have already explained in previous

episodes so don't forget to give me the

thumbs up and don't forget to subscribe

to my channel if you are new before

starting this video I would love to

clear one word and that is Jackson Hall

Symposium you will get this information

from your calendar where you will see

some kind of news around Wednesday

Thursday or Friday by using those news

Mar Market is going to complete the

TGIF if you see that market has done

this TGIF uh in any of these days that

means Wednesday Thursday and Friday any

of these days then you you will treat

that specific week as a nonform Peril

week where trading is the low

probability where is the highest

probability is going to happen in Monday

okay so this is the information you

should write it down and you will look

for that TGF what is TGF I'm not going

to explain this by this specific video

maybe in another video I'll talk about

that TG so in that specific moment you

will actually look for Monday for a

better price action i' would love to

complete one more things just before

going to the price action and that is

ICT is long-term bullish so from your

his longer term he is bullish he's not

looking for sale if there is something

happen that is not expected in the

Middle East you know the Israel then

Iran Arab I mean all those countries

some kind of or or something that is not

expected in that type of situation IC

will start to look for sale for this

relatively equal Lo or S side liquidity

until then I will look for the buy and

when you will take a long he will use

his extreme contract size for buy but if

he wants to look for sell then he will

use the lowest contract size to take

sell I hope that it's clear to all of

you now let's go to the price action

those information please write it down

because it's important

over here when Market was around that

are then my I told that his first Target

is the Min of that specific water block

if it can go through this Min short then

this high and finally that specific

volume balance let me show you this

volume balance this candle close and

this candle close see this is a volume

imbalance from daily chart a perfect

nice volume balance that was ict's

long-term Target okay so he was looking

for that volume balance

at the same

time when I will be in uh lower time

frame I will talk about little bit about

the P3 that was explained by that

specific video one more time with the

live execution I mean the live examp

example okay this is the low see this is

the that line that is the low of that

candle and this candle high this is the

sell side imbalance by side inefficiency

keep that in your mind this is the S

side imbalance byy side inefficiency

from daily CH so this this is that that

like high of that bearish bar Gap I'm

going to my lower time

frame so this my lower time frame and

let me just make it fixed okay so over

here now what is P3 Market will open

here somewhere then it will trade little

lower this is the opening sorry uh let

me actually Market I'm not a good artist

so I don't I'm not good in marketing so

opening Market went lower that is the

manipulation then the distribution after

the distribution Market will go a little

lower and it will close over here this

is ict's P3 if you understand this P3 if

you already got the I that specific word

Jackson ho Symposium then you know in

Monday you are going to get a huge run

and you if you have already marked your

daily daily bias okay not daily bias

actually daily Target where Market can

reach for as per ICT he was looking for

that one volume balance so that was his

bias that market can reach until that

area if you have that in your mind then

you will be able to catch a huge run a

long run that buy is going to occur

below the opening price and you are

going to hold it until 3 p.m. so you can

see this is the 3 p.m. so where is 3

here this is the 3 p.m. okay 3 p.m.

candle so until that area you will be

able to hold your trade and after three

okay around three that is the time to

pay the Traders so you will actually try

to take the partial or you will try to

close your trade after three because

after three Market actually try to make

this type of lower move and then close

somewhere here so that high you will

expect is going to create around 300

p.m. sometimes you can see that market

actually went high that is also the

algorithmic price done because Market

was seeing this High look at this High

remember the uh daily bearish Fab high

that was the liquidity level so Market

actually went over there by using the

algorithm around 345 I'll talk about

that later when I'll be in one but until

3 p.m. you will hold your trade below

the opening then until 3 p.m. you will

hold it then you will start to pay

yourself so I hope that this P3 concept

is clear but I would love clear it

little bit more from 5 CH I would love

to show you that you will look for 9:30

candle okay so this is the 9:30 candle

the ex ex opening price The Tick of the

opening price around 930 before this 930

no prices uh you should not focus on

this price action so after po3 if you

know Market is going higher then after 9

U 9:30 Market went lower see it went

lower take that low and that low they

are relatively equal low see over there

they are relative equal L Market has

taken that relative equal loss Market

went higher there was the institutional

water flow in real I'll show it when

I'll be in one minute Che that is your

entry point you are going to hold it

until 3 p.m. then you will start to pay

yourself or maybe you will take some

partial then you will hold until that

line see this line that that was the

liquidity line okay and this liquid line

obviously this is the volume balance

which is which was I's last Target so P3

9:30 open you will start to look for

your opening not before 9:30 after that

if you are bullish you will expect this

type of lower move and that lower move

is the actually the manipulation it will

take some kind of liquidity as you can

see this low and that low there are

exactly clean lows Market has taken that

relatively equal L liquidity has taken

then Market went high up so you will try

to catch the Buy around that area ICT

actually refer Williams and Larry

Williams and as per ICT he Larry

Williams doesn't feel confident to buy

below the opening price he actually wait

for the expansion then he

uh he's confident to take the buy after

seeing the Run okay but ICT told us that

below the opening price that is the best

place to buy if you know that where is

your daily uh Target so where Market is

actually reaching for now I'm going to

remove this one I hope that until now

everything is clear to you because I'm

just telling the point just only the

point then nothing else so over here

this is that uh one minute check and as

you can see this is the the 930 open or

where is that 9:30 here this is that

specific 9:30 open okay then Market went

lower went higher this is the you know

uh whatever it is uh Market is Jagged

the liquidity all of the people who was

trying to buy they got stropped out then

finally Market went higher and I told in

his live that he wanted to see this will

close above the new day opening Gap so

this is your new opening Gap it went

above the new opening Gap closed over

there used this new opening Gap as a

support after that it has made this

parabol

cap little bigger so it has made this

parab cap around that area this portion

he wanted to see unfill that means some

portion of this parab cap will be

unfilled and as you can see this yellow

box this portion is absolutely open over

there Market trade that fair value cap

this called institutional order flow in

you are going to take your buy from

there and you are looking for this buy

side liquidity see this buy side

liquidity around that area that is your

buy side liquidity

a perfect setup over there and if you

really know where Market is reaching for

then you are going to hold it until 3

p.m. so this is actually your 3 p.m.

where is that uh here so until 3 p.m.

you are going to hold it and maybe you

will give take some partial over there

or you will close your trade it's up to

you that was the thinking of icts now

you are not going to Simply uh go to

your chart and push your button to that

institutional entry FL uh ENT sorry

Institution order flow ENT what you are

going to do in month and month you are

you should observe this type of Entry

then you will bu build your confidence

then you will push your button don't

just go to your chart and push your

button because IC told it is going to

work please don't do that first observe

it month and month then build your

confidence no this is going to work

every single time it's uh it's happening

again and again and again then push your

button over there okay otherwise please

don't push your button now I would love

to talk about the hour as you know that

market is going higher by anyhow you

know that your daily daily limit you

know that market is reaching for that

area from daily chart then around the

lunch hour where is the lunch hour is

going to create at 11:30 so from 11:30

to 1:30 is your lunch macro not before

that not after that that is your lunch

macro 11:30 to 1:30 okay so around 11:30

you will look this is the 11:30 candle

okay you will look be just before 11:30

the obvious swing low that should be

created after 10:30 so sorry not 10:30

after 10 so as you can see this is the

10 candle okay so here is the 10 this is

the 10 candle after that candle this

there is a low there is a low there is a

low you don't care about them you will

look for the low has created just before

11:30 which is obvious so as you can see

this is that look why you should look

for that and why you should think that

market is going to take that on whoever

who is going to be profitable by that

specific area sellers or buyers you can

see that simply who actually took the

buy they are the profitable Trader so

what they will do they will put their

stop- loss below that low which is just

before the

11:30 they will put their stop loss over

there so what Market will do by using

the lunch macro Market will stop them

out so whoever is profitable by taking

Buy and they trade their stops over

there they will be stopped out over

there by that lunch macro okay so lunch

macro is going to fall if you know

Market is going higher okay then Market

will take this stop them out whoever was

buying they will get stopped out at the

same time it has traded this new week

opening Gap and you can see that it has

traded this specific buy buy side

imbalance s side inefficiency it has

traded that buide imbalance s side

inefficiency then it is waiting for 130

so around that 130 so let me around that

130 this that 130 Market will refer back

what was going what was happening around

11:30 so until 11:30 what was the bias

bullish so Market is going to I the

algorithm is going to refer that same

same bias after 130 so as you can see

around 130 Market started to go higher

again and until 3 p.m. so where is 3

p.m. here uh until 3 p.m. Market went

higher okay perfectly it went

High the last macro the last algorithmic

run is going to create around 3:45 p.m.

that is the time where Market will

finish its business if something is

still untacked that means it was trying

to close that in sell side in imbalance

buy side inefficiency and Market didn't

close that liquidity all of this I mean

Gap Market didn't close until 345

so Market will use that 345 macro to

until the last of the day to close its

business over there so as you can see

around 345 Market went lower then boom

where did it came to this high of that s

side imbalance by side inefficiency this

is the highest high and remember this

the highest high this is the lowest low

show you the low there is the low okay

so open

manipulation hold distribution until

that high then Market went lower and

then close around that

area stopped there closed all of the

saleside imbalance by side inefficiency

then closed over here the very next day

Market open and trade that volume

balance I just didn't uh show it to you

but if you go to your chart you will see

that around 6 p.m. when the market open

uh around 6 p.m. it ex expand higher and

trade that volume balance so that was

the theme I have learned from IC episode

12 uh if it is helpful or if if it is uh

actually understandable for you guys

don't forget to give me the thumbs up

and don't forget to let me know if you

have any question regarding this episode

so until the next video cheers