AS Terancam Resesi, Apa Dampaknya Bagi Ekonomi Indonesia?

Kompas.com

7 Aug 202403:55

Summary

TLDRThe United States faces a looming recession, with economic indicators showing a rise in unemployment rates, currently at 0.5%. This could lead to the Federal Reserve tightening interest rates, affecting the Indonesian economy through currency exchange pressures and export performance. Investors may turn to safe havens like gold or the US dollar. However, a recession might also benefit Indonesia's domestic financial market, as the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates, making Indonesian financial markets more attractive and encouraging foreign capital inflow.

Takeaways

📉 The United States is facing a potential recession, with economic indicators showing a worsening situation.
📈 The 'Sham Rule' indicator, which measures the average unemployment rate over the last three months minus the lowest unemployment rate in the last year, has reached 0.5%, signaling a recession risk.
💼 A recession is officially declared when the economy contracts for two consecutive quarters.
🌐 The Federal Reserve's actions regarding interest rates could become more challenging due to the recession, potentially affecting currency exchange rates.
💰 Investors may become more cautious, possibly moving their funds to 'safe havens' like gold or the US dollar in the medium term.
🚀 The recession in the US could indirectly impact Indonesia's export performance, especially since a significant portion of Indonesian exports are to China, which in turn sends products to the US.
🔻 A weakening US economy could reduce demand for exports from Indonesia.
💵 The recession might affect the attractiveness of Indonesian government bonds, especially if foreign interest in State Bonds (SBN) decreases.
📈 However, a US recession could potentially benefit Indonesia's domestic financial market, as the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates more significantly and quickly.
🌟 Lower interest rates could make Indonesia's money market more attractive, encouraging foreign capital inflows.
🏦 The government is considering the potential benefits of a US recession, such as the opportunity to attract more foreign investment due to a more favorable interest rate environment.

Q & A

What is the current economic situation of the United States as indicated by the transcript?
-The transcript suggests that the United States is facing the threat of a recession, with economic indicators showing a worsening situation.
What does the 'Sham rule indicator' suggest about the probability of a recession in the U.S.?
-The 'Sham rule indicator' indicates a probability of a recession when the average unemployment rate over the last three months is reduced by the lowest unemployment rate in the last year, resulting in a figure of 0.5 percentage points.
What is the definition of a recession according to the transcript?
-A recession is defined as occurring when the economy contracts for two consecutive quarters.
How could a recession in the U.S. affect the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates?
-A recession in the U.S. could make the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates more difficult, potentially leading to increased pressure on the value of the Rupiah.
What impact could a U.S. recession have on investors' behavior regarding Indonesian assets?
-Investors might become more cautious, possibly moving their funds to 'safe havens' such as gold or the U.S. dollar in the medium term.
How might a U.S. recession indirectly affect Indonesia's export performance?
-Although Indonesia's largest export portion is to China, the products are ultimately sent to the U.S.; thus, a weakening U.S. economy could affect demand for exports to Indonesia.
What is the potential impact of a U.S. recession on the attractiveness of Indonesian government bonds?
-A recession could affect investor interest in purchasing Indonesian government bonds, which could make it more difficult to close the 2024 state budget deficit and pay off maturing debts in 2025.
How does the transcript suggest the Indonesian government could benefit from a U.S. recession?
-The transcript suggests that a U.S. recession could create opportunities for the domestic financial market, especially if the Federal Reserve accelerates interest rate cuts.
What is the potential outcome if the Federal Reserve does not promptly lower interest rates according to the transcript?
-If the Federal Reserve does not promptly lower interest rates, the U.S. economy could worsen, and the pressure in the money market, including in Indonesia, would increase.
How could a decrease in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate affect Indonesia's money market?
-A decrease in the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate could make Indonesia's money market more attractive and encourage the inflow of foreign capital.
What is the role of the Head of Fiscal Policy at the Ministry of Finance in this context according to the transcript?
-The Head of Fiscal Policy, Febriothan Kacaribu, explains the potential benefits of a U.S. recession for the Indonesian financial market, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Economic Recession Threat in the United States

The script discusses the looming threat of a recession in the United States, as indicated by deteriorating economic indicators. The unemployment rate has seen a significant drop in the past three months, resulting in a 0.5 percentage point decrease, which is the lowest in the last year. The script also mentions the 'Shem rule Indicator' for July 2024, which stands at 0.53 percentage points, suggesting a potential recession if the economy contracts in two consecutive quarters. The impact of a US recession on the Indonesian economy is explored, with the Executive Director of the Center for Economic and Studies, Bim Yudistira, highlighting the potential for the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates to become more challenging, leading to increased pressure on the Rupiah's exchange rate. Investors are advised to be cautious, possibly turning to 'safe haven' assets like gold or the US dollar in the medium term. Additionally, the recession could indirectly affect Indonesia's export performance, as a significant portion of its exports are to China, which in turn sends products to the US. A weakening US economy could reduce demand for exports from Indonesia.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Recession

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months. It is identified by a fall in GDP, an increase in unemployment, and a decline in industrial production. In the video, the term is used to discuss the potential economic downturn in the United States, which is a central theme of the video.

💡Economic Indicators

Economic indicators are statistics that provide insights into the economic health of a country or region. They are used to predict future economic conditions and are crucial for policy-making. In the video, economic indicators are mentioned as worsening, suggesting a higher probability of a recession in the U.S.

💡Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is without jobs and actively seeking work. It is a key indicator of the health of an economy. The script mentions the unemployment rate decreasing over the last three months, which is a positive sign but is contrasted with the overall recession risk.

💡Federal Reserve (Fed)

The Federal Reserve, often referred to as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It plays a critical role in setting monetary policy, including interest rates. The video discusses how the Fed's decisions on interest rates could be affected by a potential recession and impact global investors.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and are set by central banks like the Federal Reserve. They influence the economy by affecting the cost of borrowing for consumers and businesses. The script suggests that the Fed's stance on interest rates could become more challenging in the face of a recession.

💡Safe Haven

A safe haven in finance refers to assets that are perceived as stable and secure during times of economic uncertainty. The video mentions investors potentially moving their funds to safe havens like gold or the U.S. dollar in the event of a recession.

💡Export Performance

Export performance refers to how well a country's goods and services are sold abroad. It is a significant part of a nation's economy. The script discusses the potential indirect impact of a U.S. recession on Indonesia's export performance, as China, a major export partner, sends products to the U.S.

💡Government Bonds

Government bonds are debt securities issued by a government to raise capital. They are considered a form of loan to the government. The video mentions how a recession in the U.S. could affect the attractiveness of Indonesian government bonds to foreign investors.

💡Investment Attractiveness

Investment attractiveness refers to the appeal of a country or asset to potential investors. Factors such as economic stability, political climate, and market potential influence this. The script suggests that a U.S. recession could reduce the appeal of Indonesian government bonds to investors.

💡Monetary Policy

Monetary policy refers to the actions of a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, to influence the economy by adjusting the money supply and interest rates. The video discusses how the potential for a U.S. recession might prompt the Fed to adjust its monetary policy, affecting global financial markets.

💡Capital Flows

Capital flows refer to the movement of money into or out of a country, which can be influenced by factors such as economic conditions and investment opportunities. The script mentions that a recession in the U.S. could impact the flow of foreign capital into Indonesia.

Highlights

The United States faces a potential recession, with economic indicators worsening and the probability of a recession increasing.

The 'Sham rule indicator' shows an increase, signaling a recession risk when the average unemployment rate over the last three months is reduced.

The unemployment rate at its lowest in the last year resulted in a 0.5 percentage point increase.

The 'Shem rule indicator' as of July 2024 shows a 0.53 percentage point, indicating a looming recession.

A recession is defined as an economic contraction over two consecutive quarters.

The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates could become more challenging due to a potential recession in the US.

Investors may become more cautious, potentially moving their investments to 'safe havens' like gold or the US dollar.

A recession in the US could indirectly impact Indonesia's export performance.

Indonesia's largest export portion is still to China, but these products are ultimately sent to the US, indicating a potential impact on export demand.

A recession in the US could affect the attractiveness of Indonesian government bonds, especially with a decreasing foreign portion in state bonds.

The government still needs foreign capital inflows, and a recession could impact investor interest in government bonds.

If investor interest in government bonds wanes, efforts to close the 2024 budget deficit and repay 2025 debt maturities could become more difficult.

The government may have to raise the yield on government bonds to attract investors during a recession.

The potential for a US recession could create opportunities for the domestic financial market in Indonesia.

The possibility of a recession could prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts.

If the Federal Reserve does not reduce interest rates promptly, the US economy could worsen, with the potential for a more significant and rapid drop in reference interest rates.

Pressure in the money market, including in Indonesia, could ease, making Indonesian money market instruments more attractive and encouraging foreign capital inflows.