Is the Stock Market DIP Already Over ??

Summary

Der Skript bietet eine Analyse des Aktienmarktes, der dank besser als erwarteter Inflationenzahlen anzieht. Es diskutiert die möglichen Auswirkungen des Nahen Ostens, die Besitzverhältnisse von Bitcoin und eine Vorschau auf den CPI-Inflationenbericht. Es geht auch auf die Chancen eines Soft Landings der Wirtschaft und die potenziellen Rezession ein, während es auf die Bedeutung der Unternehmensgewinne und die Reaktion auf die geplanten Zinssenkungen der FED hinweist. Zudem erwähnt es die geopolitischen Spannungen mit Iran und deren Auswirkungen auf Rohstoffmärkte.

Takeaways

• 📈 Der Aktienmarkt hat sich aufgrund besserer als erwarteter Inflationen-Daten erholt.
• 📉 Der Energiesektor war der Schwächeste, mit Rückgängigmachung von Rohöl.
• 🌐 Der Mittlere Osten-Konflikt scheint vorübergehend abgeklungen zu sein, und die Märkte reagieren nicht besorgt.
• 🚀 Die Halbleiterbranche hat an Führungspositionen gewonnen, mit Nvidia zu einem Anstieg von 62%.
• 💊 Eli Lilly und Tesla sind unter den heißen Werten mit einem starken Börsenwertanstieg.
• 📊 Die Indizes sind noch unter ihrem 50-Tage-Volumgewichteten-Schiebemittel, was auf eine mögliche Marktbottleneck hindeutet.
• 💰 Die Weichheit der Inflation könnte die Notenbank ermutigen, die Zinssenkungen zu beschleunigen.
• 📊 Die PPI-Trends deuten auf eine Abnahme der Inflation hin, was die Märkte beruhigen könnte.
• 📉 Die Aktien von Home Depot gaben eine Warnung vor einem Verlangsamen des Konsums ab, was jedoch nicht stark auf den Aktienkurs einwirkte.
• ☕ Starbucks erlebte ihren besten Börsentag, nachdem bekannt wurde, dass ein neuer CEO mit guter Fast-Food-Referenz aufgenommen wurde.
• 🤔 Es gibt unterschiedliche Meinungen über die Inflation und die zukünftigen Zinssenkungen, was Unsicherheit im Markt schafft.

Q & A

Was hat den Aktienmarkt am gestrigen 'bullish Tuesday' im positiven Bereich geführt?

Der Aktienmarkt wurde vor allem von Halbleitern geführt, wobei Nvidia mit einem Anstieg von 62% auffiel. Andere heiße Aktien waren Eli Lilly, die stark handelte, und Tesla, das um über 5% stieg. Industrie, Gesundheitswesen und Finanzen hatten auch einen guten Tag.

Warum könnte der Aktienmarktabsturz vorübergehend sein?

Der Aktienmarktabsturz könnte vorübergehend sein, da die Indizes immer noch unter ihren 50-Tage-Volume Weighted Moving Averages (VWMA) sind, aber je weiter der Markt von dem Tiefstand des letzten Montags entfernt wird, desto größer ist die Möglichkeit, dass dieser tatsächlich der Absoluttiefstand war. Ein solcher Rückgang von 8,1-12% könnte als sehr günstiges Szenario angesehen werden, da der S&P 500 im Durchschnitt pro Jahr einen Rückgang von 14,5% erleidet.

Welche Rolle spielen weiche Inflationswerte für die Aktienmarktentwicklung?

Weiche Inflationswerte, wie sie im Skript erwähnt wurden, können die Aktienmärkte stützen, da sie die Furcht vor zunehmenden Inflationen reduzieren und die Hoffnung auf eine 'weiche Landung' der Wirtschaft erhöhen. Eine 'weiche Landung' bedeutet, dass die Wirtschaft eine Verlangsamung erleidet, aber keine Rezession eintritt.

Was bedeutet die Erwähnung der 'CPI-Inflation Bericht' für die Marktteilnehmer?

Der CPI-Inflation Bericht ist ein wichtiger wirtschaftlicher Indikator, der den Verbraucherpreisindex misst. Seine Veröffentlichung kann die Märkte beeinflussen, da er Einblicke in die Inflationstrends gibt, die die Entscheidungen der Zentralbanken über die Geldpolitik beeinflussen können.

Welche Faktoren könnten zu einem weiteren Anstieg der Aktienmärkte führen?

Faktoren, die zu einem weiteren Anstieg der Aktienmärkte führen könnten, beinhalten positive Korporate-Gewinnmeldungen, die Überschreitung von Erwartungen bei Gewinnen und Prognosen, sowie eine Verbesserung der wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen, die auf eine 'weiche Landung' hindeuten könnte.

Was zeigt der Verlauf des VIX-Index?

Der VIX-Index, auch als 'Furcht-Index' bekannt, zeigt die Marktvolatilität. Im Skript wird erwähnt, dass der VIX schnell nach einem Anstieg auf einen '18-Handhabe' zurückgegangen ist, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Optionenhandler möglicherweise keine zu hohen Prämien für zukünftige Bewegungen verlangen.

Was bedeuten die aktuellen Zinssätze für Japanische Government Bonds (JGBs) für den Yen-Carry-Trade?

Die niedrigen Zinssätze für JGBs, wie im Skript erwähnt, mit einem 10-jährigen Zinssatz von 0,84%, sind ein Faktor, der den Yen-Carry-Trade attraktiv hält, da Investoren hohe Zinsdifferenzen ausnutzen können, indem sie Yen borrowen und in höhere Zinsätze investieren.

Welche Rolle spielen Führungswechsel in Unternehmen wie Starbucks im Aktienmarkt?

Führungswechsel in Schlüsselunternehmen können den Aktienkurs stark beeinflussen. Im Skript wird erwähnt, dass der neue CEO von Starbucks, Brian Niccol, den Aktienkurs um 24% an einem Tag steigerte, was die Bedeutung eines erfolgreichen Führungswechsels zeigt.

Was bedeuten die aktuellen Haushaltsschulden und deren Verzugsquoten für die US-Wirtschaft?

Im Skript wird erwähnt, dass die Haushaltsschulden und die Verzugsquoten niedrig sind, was darauf hindeutet, dass die US-Wirtschaft derzeit keine großen Probleme mit Schuldenrückständen hat. Dies kann ein positives Signal für die Wirtschaft und den Aktienmarkt sein.

Was ist die aktuelle Haltung der Märkte gegenüber einer möglichen Rezession?

Der Aktienmarkt scheint eine 'weiche Landung' der Wirtschaft zu hoffen, obwohl viele Beobachter eine Rezession fürchten. Im Skript wird erwähnt, dass die Märkte eine 'weiche Landung' als eine alternative zu einer Rezession in Betracht ziehen, was auf eine optimistischere Haltung gegenüber der wirtschaftlichen Zukunft hindeutet.

Wie beeinflusst die geopolitische Situation, insbesondere im Nahen Osten, die Märkte?

Obwohl es Spannungen im Nahen Osten gibt, scheinen die Märkte derzeit nicht zu große Sorgen zu haben. Im Skript wird erwähnt, dass die Aktienmärkte und Rohstoffpreise relativ unbeeinflusst von der Situation im Nahen Osten bleiben, was auf eine geringe Beunruhigung der Investoren hinweist.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Aktienmarkt steigt auf Grund besserer Inflationserwartungen

Der erste Absatz beschäftigt sich mit der aktuellen Situation des Aktienmarktes, der aufgrund überschrittener Inflationserwartungen anzieht. Es wird erwähnt, dass einige Sektoren wie der Energiesektor und der Verbraucherdiscretionary-Sektor unter ihrem 50-Tage-Mittel liegen, während der Markt von Halbleitern geführt wird, mit Nvidia, das einen Anstieg von 62% verzeichnen kann. Auch einige heiße Aktien wie Eli Lily und Tesla sind aufgeführt, die einen Anstieg verzeichnen. Es wird diskutiert, dass die Indizes immer noch unter ihrem 50-Tage-Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) sind, aber die Möglichkeit, dass der Bottom des Marktes bereits erreicht wurde, wird diskutiert. Zudem wird auf die Bedeutung der bevorstehenden Arbeitsmarktberichte und die Möglichkeit eines 'soft landing' für die Wirtschaft hingewiesen.

05:00

🌐 Analyse der Rezessionsbefürchtungen und geopolitische Risiken

Der zweite Absatz behandelt die Bedenken hinsichtlich einer möglichen Rezession und die Auswirkungen von geopolitischen Risiken, insbesondere im Nahen Osten. Es wird erwähnt, dass die Marktbeteiligten skeptisch sind und auf der Wartestellung sind, insbesondere aufgrund von Insiderverkauf bei Technologie-Riesen wie Nvidia, Facebook und Amazon. Die Diskussion um die Furcht vor einem Krieg im Nahen Osten und die Reaktion des Marktes auf diese Nachrichten wird dargestellt. Zudem wird auf die Bedeutung der Yen-Carry-Trade-Entwicklung und die Aussagen von Analysten bezüglich der Währungsbewertung und der zukünftigen Dynamik des Yen hinzugefügt.

10:03

🛒 Einblicke in den US-Aktienmarkt und die Auswirkungen von Führungswechseln

Der dritte Absatz konzentriert sich auf die Dynamiken im US-Aktienmarkt und wie Unternehmensneuigkeiten Einfluss auf den Aktienkurs nehmen können. Es wird auf die Warnung von Home Depot vor einem Verlangsamen des Konsums eingegangen, die Ernennung von Brian Niccol, dem ehemaligen CEO von Chipotle, als neuer Starbucks-CEO und die positive Reaktion des Marktes auf diese Neuigkeit hingewiesen. Es wird auch auf die Bedeutung von Aktionärsbuybacks und die Rolle von Führungswechseln in der Wirtschaft diskutiert, sowie auf die Unterschiede zwischen dem heutigen Tech-Boom und dem des späten 90er Jahre.

15:04

📊 Entwicklungen der Inflation und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft

Der vierte Absatz behandelt die Entwicklung der Inflation und wie diese die Wirtschaft und den Aktienmarkt beeinflusst. Es wird auf den Rückgang der PPI und die Erwartungen bezüglich der zukünftigen Inflationstrends eingegangen. Es wird auch diskutiert, dass die Inflation in Bereichen wie Autoversicherung und Unterkünfte nachgeht und dass die Rohstoffpreise dazu beitragen, den Inflationstrend nach unten zu drücken. Zudem wird auf die Aussagen von Zentralbankpräsidenten und die Erwartungen bezüglich zukünftiger Zinssenkungen hingewiesen.

20:06

⚔ geopolitische Spannungen und ihre Auswirkungen auf Rohstoffmärkte

Der fünfte und letzte Absatz spiegelt die geopolitischen Spannungen wider, die die Märkte beeinflussen, insbesondere die Erwartungen bezüglich der Reaktion Irans auf die aktuellen Entwicklungen. Es wird auf die Unruhe im Rohstoffmarkt und die Erwartungen bezüglich der Reaktion Irans auf die geopolitischen Ereignisse eingegangen. Es wird auch auf die Bedeutung von Gold als Schatzhaus in Zeiten der Unsicherheit und die Haltung der Zentralbanken gegenüber Kryptowährungen wie Bitcoin diskutiert.

Keywords

💡Inflation

Inflation ist der Anstieg der allgemeinen Preisniveaus im Wirtschaftskreislauf und wird oft als Prozentsatz ausgedrückt. Im Video wird die besser als erwartete Inflation genannt, was darauf hindeutet, dass die Verbraucherpreise langsamer steigen als befürchtet, was für die Aktienmärkte eine positive Entwicklung ist, da eine zu starke Inflation oft mit wirtschaftlichen Problemen einhergeht. Beispielsweise wird erwähnt, dass 'soft inflation prints' die Chancen auf eine Ratensenkung erhöhen könnten.

💡Aktienmarkt

Der Aktienmarkt ist eine Börse, auf der Unternehmen ihre Aktien an Investoren verkaufen und kaufen. Im Video wird der Aktienmarkt als 'bullish Tuesday' beschrieben, was bedeutet, dass die Märkte in der Vorwoche einen Anstieg verzeichnen und positiver eingestellt sind. Die Diskussion um den Aktienmarkt umfasst auch verschiedene Sektoren und deren Leistung im Vergleich zu ihren 50-Tage-SMA (Simple Moving Average).

💡Semiconductors

Semiconductors sind Materialien, die Elektronen介于导体 und Isolierungseigenschaften aufweisen und in der Herstellung von Halbleitern und elektronischen Geräten verwendet werden. Im Video führt der半导体部门 als einer der Sektoren, der am stärksten an Wert gewinnt, mit Nvidia als Beispiel für eine Firma, die in diesem Bereich tätig ist und einen signifikanten Anstieg in ihren Aktienkursen verzeichnet hat.

💡50-Tage-Bewegungsmittelwert

Die 50-Tage-Bewegungsmittelwert ist ein technisch analysierender Indikator, der den Durchschnittskurs eines Aktien oder Indizes über die letzten 50 Tage darstellt. Im Video wird angemerkt, dass die meisten Indizes noch unter ihrem 50-Tage-Bewegungsmittelwert liegen, was darauf hindeutet, dass die langfristige Tendenz des Marktes noch nicht vollständig positiv ist.

💡CPI-Inflation Report

Der Consumer Price Index (CPI) ist ein Messinstrument zur Erfassung der Veränderungen der allgemeinen Preisniveaus von Verbrauchergütern und -dienstleistungen. Im Video wird erwähnt, dass das Vorschauen auf den CPI-Inflation Report für den nächsten Tag wichtig ist, da er die Entscheidungen der Zentralbank bezüglich der Zinssenkungen oder -erhöhungen beeinflussen kann.

💡VIX

Die VIX, auch als 'Fear Index' bekannt, ist ein Maß für die Volatilität im Aktienmarkt und wird oft als Indikator für die Angst der Investoren gesehen. Im Video wird die VIX erwähnt, um die Stimmung des Marktes zu beschreiben, und es wird bemerkt, dass sie in die 18er-Bereich zurückgekehrt ist, was auf eine Abnahme der Angst unter den Investoren hindeutet.

💡Recession

Eine Rezession ist eine periodische Verlangsamung der Wirtschaftsaktivität, die normalerweise durch einen Rückgang des BIP um mindestens 1,5% über ein oder zwei aufeinander folgende Quartale definiert wird. Im Video wird die Möglichkeit einer Rezession diskutiert, und es wird auf die Bedenken der Investoren eingegangen, die glauben, dass die Wirtschaft bereits in eine Rezession eingetreten sein könnte oder dies in der Nähe liegt.

💡Corporate Earnings

Corporate Earnings beziehen sich auf die Gesamtgewinne, die ein Unternehmen in einer bestimmten Periode erzielt. Im Video wird erwähnt, dass die Unternehmensgewinne über den Erwartungen liegen und dass es eine positive Note für den Aktienmarkt ist, da gute Gewinne oft zu einem Anstieg des Aktienkurses führen.

💡Crude Oil

Rohöl ist ein flüssiger Brennstoff, der vor allem zur Herstellung von Treibstoffen, Chemikalien und anderen Produkten verwendet wird. Im Video wird der Rohölpreis als Indikator für die wirtschaftliche Aktivität und die politischen Spannungen im Nahen Osten diskutiert, und es wird bemerkt, dass der Markt anscheinend keine großen Konflikte in der Region befürchtet.

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin ist eine dezentrale digitale Währung, die ohne zentrale Autorität funktioniert und auf der Blockchain-Technologie basiert. Im Video wird Bitcoin in Bezug auf seine Preisentwicklung und die Diskussion um die größten Besitzer von Bitcoin erwähnt, wobei unter anderem die US-Regierung, die chinesische Regierung und der BlackRock Bitcoin ETF als große Inhaber aufgeführt werden.

Highlights

Stock market rebounded across the board due to better than expected inflation data.

Energy and consumer discretionary sectors were the only ones not above their 50-day moving averages.

Semiconductors led the market higher, with Nvidia gaining 62%.

Despite the market's recovery, indices are still below their 50-day volume weighted moving averages.

The possibility of the recent low being the bottom of the 8-12% pullback is increasing.

S&P 500's average annual pullback is 14.5%, and current market conditions suggest it could be lower.

Corporate earnings are tracking above expectations, with many companies beating forecasts.

The VIX index has returned to a lower level, indicating less market volatility.

The difference between bond market and stock market volatility is climbing back, which could be a bullish signal for stocks.

Bitcoin is hovering just below the 50-day mark above $60,000.

Gold is resting at all-time highs of $2,500 an ounce.

Most sectors finished higher, led by growth, despite energy and oil and gas pulling back.

Large-cap tech insiders have been selling significant amounts of stock.

The VIX spike is considered by some as an abnormal print due to market conditions.

Japanese markets experienced a significant drop but have since rebounded.

Starbucks stock had its best day ever with the announcement of a new CEO from Chipotle.

Nvidia's earnings are anticipated to be a key market driver later this month.

Inflation data is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts.

Total household debt and delinquency rates are low, indicating a healthy economy.

Geopolitical tensions with Iran are being closely watched, but markets do not seem overly concerned.

BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF is the third-largest holder of Bitcoin, after Binance and the creator of Bitcoin.

Transcripts

coming up today stock saw across the

board thanks to better than expected

inflation data is the stock market dip

over Iran fears fade who owns the most

amount of Bitcoin and a preview of the

CPI inflation report

[Music]

tomorrow and welcome back everybody on

this bullish Tuesday in the markets just

when things look like they're about to

roll over up she squeezes again now

getting quite a bit more green up the

front in markets in fact we've only got

energy and consumer discretionary as are

two sectors underneath their 50-day

energy was really only the real weak

sector today we can see that in the heat

map pretty much energy the only one

coming off as we had a bit of a pullback

and crude oil Market seems to really not

be worried about any potential large

conflict in the Middle East and who

knows maybe Iran is still a little

unsure of how to respond now that

they're surrounded by Western military

assets have more on that later on the

market was led higher today by

semiconductors Nvidia slapping on 62%

some other hot stocks Eli Lily trading

up Tesla adding over 5% and Industrials

health care and financials all enjoying

a good day as well however we're not out

of the woods just yet all indices still

below their 50-day volume weighted

moving averages however the more we

creep away from last Monday's low just

increases the possibility that that may

have actually been the bottom in this 8

1 12% pullback and like I've been saying

if so that would be the very best case

scenario as On Any Given year the S&P

500 on average will do a 14 a half%

pullback so given the elevated risks in

the macro backdrop recession fears

geopolitics heading into what looks like

could be a contested US federal election

it wouldn't be all that reasonable to

think the market could do an average

inear drop of 14% And if we did that

would take us down to about 4,800 on the

S&P 500 however we keep getting soft

inflation prints like we did today and

I'd say a big one would be the jobs

report next month on the first Friday

it's really what spooked the market got

Bon yields diving if that came in at 43

42 or better along with things not

blowing up in the Middle East then who

knows 5123 very well could be the low

for the rest of the year CU we do have

corporate earning tracking really good

above expectations on Beats and guidance

and we did just do a bit over a 500

point retracement on S&P 500 so just

going out to the weekly chart maybe if

it can reclaim this elevated Trend back

above 5500 who knows it could be off to

Blue Skies again and to try and get an

idea on the structure of the market we

look at bre today pretty good on volume

over four times as much volume and

advancing stocks NC then declining

overall breadth holding up 59% of stocks

above their 50-day average still not the

best on the amount of stocks hitting New

52 we highs still pretty subdued and

look at that the vix already back into

an 18 handle just amazing how quick the

vix can Crush after it spikes up fix one

day still a little elevated 9.3 option

dealers potentially pricing in a bit of

movement tomorrow after we get the CPI

inflation release pretty good sign to me

is volatility risk premium now back into

negative territory difference between

the vix and realized volatility and last

time we went back into negative

territory back in early May right after

the stock market finished its dip so

according to option dealers they're not

really worried about what's around the

corner they're not asking for a premium

on top of how much stocks are already

moving at the moment and just looking at

the spread between bond market and stock

market volatility that's climbing back

as well which I think is a bullish

signal for stocks when you've got the

volatility and the stock market

improving a lot versus bonds they have

the 2-year yield creep Back Down Under

4% today and the 10e as well like I've

been saying I'm going to pay close

attention to the price action and these

tomorrow after we get that CPI print

high bonds looking good no problems

going on in the credit markets Japanese

Yen as well creeping back up looking

more and more likely last Monday was

capitulation like I've been saying 70

80% chance I'm sure we've already seen

the worst of it when it comes to the Y

carry trade unwind and volatility

however we can't rule it out just yet I

could be wrong markets can surprise all

of us so I'll be looking for a close

above the 50-day vwap for more

confirmation that we've already seen the

worst of it in the Japanese Yen Bitcoin

looking good just hovering below the

50-day above $60,000 a coin we got gold

just resting at all-time highs $2,500 an

oun and crude oil retracing a little bit

just below its 5078 a barrel looking

across all sectors they were green today

except energy oil and gas even the

defensive sectors showed up all factors

finishing higher led by growth and

here's a look at some of the biggest

stocks in the market Microsoft having

another good bounce back today there's

Nvidia remember I showed you guys last

week on the 15minute charts there was

really strong signs of accumulation on

those dips when you look underneath the

hood of the daily candle here we are

sitting back at the 50-day already along

with all semis having a good bounce arm

Holdings slapping on another 5.6% today

and pretty much bullish across the board

just looking at the price action big

stocks JP Morgan back above the 50-day

and like Nvidia other Market leaders Eli

Lily trading up above the 50 as well so

the market showing a bit of strength

here in its leaders and its growth names

and in breadth as well just not so many

stocks breaking out to 52 we highs yet

but overall most of them are sitting

above their medium long-term averages

volatility coming down corporate

earnings are accelerating economy is

still growing still a chance of a soft

Landing however that's still contrarian

view as most people are convinced if

we're not already in a recession it is

just around the corner and I'll show you

some more data on the economy and the

odds of a recession soon first let's

just get back to the stock market and

whilst we're still in a seasonally weak

period we do have a couple of bullish

catalysts that could take over a lot of

people are still on the sideline and

very skeptical of this bounce with

articles like don't rush back into the

stock market as more pain is coming if

the economy keeps slowing that stifles

Barry banister said there's still reason

to be cautious the fed's 2% inflation

goal is just a pipe dream and he still

expects we'll get a 10% Market

correction taking us down to 5,000 by

October and over the last couple of

months we have seen relatively large

amount of Insider selling especially

from Mega cap Tech Jensen hang CEO of

Nvidia has been offloading hundreds of

millions of dollars worth of stock seen

Marcus Zuckerberg Jeff Bezos has

offloaded even more and some skeptical

over the bullish implications of a spike

in the fear index the vix with one

analyst calling the vix 65 print a

garbage piece of data saying use it in

you're investing at your own Peril and I

guess there's an argument to be made

there like I pointed out it was a real

abnormal print given market and macro

conditions However the fact it did get

there just shows how loose liquidity the

options Market Came In the Heat of the

Moment last Monday lunchtime market

makers just bail widen in their bit ass

spreads causes a huge spike in the vix

there was real fear coming into Monday

morning Japanese markets were getting

created and we already had the fears

from the previous week recession diving

bond yields Middle East War surprise

jump and unemployment rate Bank Japan

indicating they're going to keep hiking

rates and on top of all that before the

market opened on Monday we got news

Warren Buffett chopped his Apple steak

in half just a perfect recipe for a

spill over in fear so I don't agree

totally with the argument of this

article we should just completely ignore

it as an abnormal print cuz you could

say that about any Market in history

when it spikes That's What markets do

they become irrational in the short term

like I said markets are like a person

who's mostly logical and sane however

every now and then gets massively drunk

becomes bipolar for a few days and never

settles down and Carries On and whilst

the fears of a recession and a middle

eastern War still linger in the

background Market's pretty much gone

over the fact where buffets cut as Apple

steak in half the real pinpoint of fear

last Monday morning was Japanese stocks

having their Black Monday at one point

down 15% however as markets often do

they put in their best gain starting

from a place of Maximum fear now we can

see that in niiki Futures traded over in

Osaka Japan that was the monster candle

from last Monday and here we are trading

up above the highs Bank of Japan came in

and kind of did a soft intervention car

markets down and said they won't

increase rates there's still this Market

volatility still think they need to

however that it's going to give the

market some time to digest this cuz I

guess coming off Rock Bottom for the

first time in years was always going to

rock markets a little bit especially

when we had a bunch of other things

going on at the same time however for

here and now just like the yen currency

it looks to have calmed down a little

bit and like the Yen I still think

there's better than a half chance we've

seen the worst of it however can't rule

it out could still be another event to

be had here well some saying the big

carry trade unwind is far from over

that's Richard Kelly head of global

strategy at TD Securities said he'd be

very hesitant to declare the end of the

carry trade unwind despite suggestions

from some economists that the roll back

may be largely complete he said he still

thinks there's a lot that can unwind

especially if you look at how

undervalued the yen is and I mean

valuing currencies is probably even more

trickier than valuing stocks because

with stocks you've got earnings you can

work out an earnings yield you can kind

of approximate what the growth will be

the next year or two out you can compare

that against the risk-free rate of

government bonds have with currencies it

gets a little more murky there a lot of

different ways value currencies

purchasing power parody using things

like the Big Mac and deck pricing a

common commodity in US Dollars you can

also look at terms of trade a whole

bunch of other things the fact is Japan

still has huge amount of debt versus GDP

more than anywhere else in the world

when developed economy and we can see

that in this chart here it's just

increased so much over the last 30 years

with now Japanese government debt 265

versus GDP and like I said that's Head

and Shoulders above other developed

countri fact there's only one other

country in the world Lebanon that's

higher there's United States at 122% not

only that but they have more of a

demographic and reproduction crisis than

the West does Japan's population's

already been declining for over 10 years

and that could actually accelerate over

the coming decades however I wouldn't

completely rule out their economy they

are a global leader in Automation and

Robotics which is definitely the future

it's already arrived so through

Innovation and Technology along with

them continuing to be a real export

dominant economy selling their cars and

electronics all around the world I don't

think Japan will completely go down the

toilet however my point is I don't think

the carry trade is going to be going

anywhere anytime soon either just

looking at jgbs Japanese government bond

10year yield 0.84% still well lower than

the rest of the world and who knows some

of these currencies Yen carry Traders

had been long like the Mexican pzo

versus Japanese Yen which you can earn a

huge overnight swap rate that's because

Mexico's overnight central bank rate is

10.75% versus Japan 0.25% so if you're

along the Mexican pzo versus Japanese

Yen you earn over 10% minus your Brokers

spread per year in overnight swaps

however that 10% doesn't mean much when

the actual currency comes off 25%

however all these people saying the end

carry trade is going to be completely

Unwound however big it is 3 trillion 5

trillion 10 trillion nobody really knows

I just don't think that's the case

because Japanese interest rates Japanese

debt the GDP all that stuff is just not

going to materially change overnight and

that's the whole reason for the Y carry

trade in the first place so it's hard to

see thep Japanese Yen appreciating for

multiple years we'd have to see a real

deterioration and other economies more

so than theirs for that to be the case

but just getting back to the US Stock

Market like I said we're not completely

out of the woods just yet S&P 500 still

below its 50-day moving average and

we've still got loose liquidity out

there just looking at the S&P 500 e-

many Futures top of book Market deth

that's the average size sitting on the

best bid and the best offer quite low at

the moment meaning markets are trading

quite thin less liquidity can exacerbate

movements just like the oppos it more

liquidity can kind of thicken the market

up and we just got earnings from a key

retailer in the state's Home Depot

warning of consumer slowdown reduced

their 4-year EPS guidance to a decline

of 2 to 4% and comparable sales to a

decline of 3 to 4% CEO said High

interest rates an economic uncertainty a

pressuring consumer spending on Home

Improvement reported earnings of 467 a

share 43 billion in sales beating

estimates comparable Us sales declined

3.6% however like one portfolio manager

pointed out company has a history of

conservative guidance so they always

lowball things a little bit and maybe he

right because the market is really not

negatively reacting to that earnings

report today pretty much holding ground

here $350 a share what's really moving

today is Starbucks who just put in its

Best Day Ever as we just got news Brian

Nicole ex CEO of Chipotle will join

Starbucks will join Starbucks on

September 9th as they've been under

pressure from activist investors Elliot

management and starboard value we're

trying to unlock value get some new

leadership a new strategy and the new

CEO does have a proven track record of

creating value in the fast food business

and the market certainly seems to love

it up 24% today and just goes to show

you how much of an impact a CEO can have

on a business just looking at how

dramatic the repricing is in the shares

here how's G out to a weekly chart still

got a bit of work to do still well off

those highs in 2021 have a looking at

the price action it very well may have

just put in a decent bottom there we at

Goldman saying today investors have the

opportunity to buy the dip ahead of

Nvidia earnings which will duw out later

on this month on the 28th and so that

and the language we get from J pal at

the Federal Reserves Jackson Hall

economic event on the 22nd will likely

once again shape this market like I've

been saying sediment is really weak here

a lot of people bailed after last week

sitting on the sidelines we can see that

in Ned Davis research their daily

trading sediment composit which is down

near the lows in extreme pessimism

territory real sharp turnaround a week

and a half ago and we still got the fear

and greed index in the extreme fear Zone

indicating most people are just not

buying into this rally and even though

we're in a seasonally weak period

looking back and history at the S&P 500

how it trades August through October one

thing that's going to be counteracting

that is we got a huge amount of

corporate buyback that to come into the

market over 90% of the S&P 500 in the

open window over the next 2 months been

able to buy back stock and that's

something that's been breaking out as

well corporate buyback and for people

worried that the tech bubble is even

more crazier now than the late '90s

that's just not simply the case cuz just

looking at the top tech stocks from back

then in the month that they peaked out

March 2000 Cisco AOL Oracle Nel micr

systems EMC JDS Qualcomm and Yahoo these

were the hot stocks back in the late

'90s a lot of people just piling into

them but just look at their price to

earnings multiple and sure they were

growing really fast just like the big

tech stocks are now however many of

these big tech stocks they're on pees

even still on their 20s 30s or 50s we

don't have pees of 668 or 217 or 148

like Cisco was in fact the PE on Nvidia

is 63 and while that sounds ridiculously

high it's not really when you consider

how fast nvidia's been growing how fast

they're likely to continue growing they

huge operating margin they're almost

Monopoly on Advanced gpus and the huge

amount of runway in front of them I'd

say that's actually reasonably priced if

Nvidia was trading for 30 or 40 times

earning that would actually be cheap cuz

the multiple you pay is relative to the

growth and the quality of that growth

Microsoft has a PE of 34 Apple 33 Amazon

39 alab Google probably the cheapest of

all of them PE of 23 meta quite

reasonable as well 26 I'd say that

almost cheap and of course Tesla well

that could be argued either way with a

PE of 55 I wouldn't necessarily call

that cheap however I wouldn't call it

ridiculously priced either given their

potential growth in the years ahead and

the good thing for the Here and Now

inflation is pulling back as we've been

expecting produce a price index

increased by 0.1% in July less than the

0.2% forecasted with a year-over-year

increase of 2.2% these PPI Trends are

closely watched they can influence the

CPI and that is trending in the right

direction real big drop there for last

month in PPI bringing other measures of

inflation down as well super core what

was really holding up inflation in

recent months auto insurance but the

insurance industry is real lagging with

their pricing so that's set to come down

as well we also need to see some more

disinflation and shelter however most

reads of inflation are trending down and

commodities has definitely helped that

and just looking at true fl's latest

read really comprehensive look at actual

prices in the US economy looking at a

lot of different retailers and things

Americans buy their latest print shows a

year-over-year change of 1.5% which is

down near the oneyear lows so the market

is pricing in a significant path lower

for interest rate over the next 12

months in fact over 1 1/2% Market thinks

will be down around 3 and A2 this time

next year from where we currently are 5

and a quarter still risks of our urgence

though still got shipping rates climbing

up still could see some commodity

disruption however a like Goldman

forecasts pretty much the whole world is

going into monetary loosening it's

already started central banks around the

world trimming rates and their markets

forecasting lower rates months ahead as

well we even got Raphael bosk president

and chief executive of the Federal

Reserve Bank of Atlanta saying he

expects the US economy will be ready for

interest straight cuts within the next

several months and he doesn't see a

recession in sight he talking about

economic normalization thinks they can

get inflation down near 2% closely

monitoring employment still hopeful of a

soft Landing however the market has

priced in a higher chances of a

recession over the last month or two

that's kind of what got Bon yields

diving spooked the stock market a little

bit as well Goldman Sachs puts a

probability of a US recession in the

next year at 40 1% keep in mind they

were higher back in May last year they

thought there was a better chance than

not would be in a recession by now so

like I said we got Bon yields pulling

back today after that soft PPI print

what sort of print are we going to get

on CPI tomorrow we'll find out before

the Market opens 8:30 a.m. eastern time

expected to show 0.2% increase on the

headline and core month over month and

this could really solidify the fed's

thinking on a potential cut next month

this comes in as expected who knows

maybe even a touch better the FED does

have the window to Cut Rate however like

I've been saying we can't rule out the

possibility that Jay just wants to hold

until after the election to see who he's

dealing with in the white house maybe

just cover himself a bit more that

inflation's definitely been put to bed

and I think that could quite upset the

stock market and then we might get that

pull back to 5,000 on the S&P 500 if Jay

kind of hints at that and Jackson Hall

come next Thursday and Friday going into

next weekend we'll be looking at his

language to see if he gives us a hint

that he's ready to cut if CPI comes in

good tomorrow and more good news just

looking at total household debt and the

delinquency status on that debt is

actually pretty low there's 30 days late

in the blue line under 1% with very late

debt at 1.3% and 60 to 120 days pretty

low 0.2 to 0.4% a real different look

going into the last big recession we had

200 2008 clearly trending up and Peak

inside it or a little bit afterwards and

something else interesting to note with

recessions so I think people think they

happen a lot more often than what they

actually do especially in modern times

ever since financial markets really got

modernized in mid mid late ' 80s the fed

put lot of new financial instruments

electrification better access you look

at the frequencies of recessions before

that so really kind of regular thing

have a looking back in the last 30 years

the 1994 we've only had three recessions

and the 2021 is questionable as it was

so sharp and shortlived and technically

met it was caused from a global pandemic

so it still happened however even

including that over the last 30 years

we've only really had three recessions

could even argue two even three is one a

decade so you could argue both ways

maybe there's going to be a reversion to

the mean we're going to see more regular

recessions or maybe you could argue the

markets have changed government and

Federal Reserve have gotten better at

managing the economy interest rate maybe

America's dominance with technology

gives it some exceptional conditions to

enjoy but I guess we won't know for

another 6 or 12 months or so and like I

said wouldn't it be a nice surprise for

markets on the first Friday of September

if the unemployment rate came in better

than expected it's what really spooked

markets 2 weeks ago good news is United

Kingdom just had a surprise fall and

there unemployment rate with wage growth

slowing and so it was expected to come

in at 4.5% actually came in at 4.2%

meaning the United Kingdom has a more

fully employed economy the United States

and remember we live in a globally

synchronized World especially in the

west so this to me is a good sign for

the next print we get on unemployment

from the state over to geopolitics and

commodity markets been waiting for

Iran's response for over a week now been

told it could happen any day the latest

we've got is Iran rejecting Western

calls to refrain from Attack on Israel

Western diplomats been trying to cool

things down as Iran not to send 500

missiles to Israel as they risk a

full-blown War promised they will get a

response if they do cause any

significant damage in Israel however

they appear to be waiting for something

maybe some more weapons from Russia

maybe getting all their proxies ready

for a multi-front attack however on the

same hand Israel in the west was also

getting more assets in the region and

ready still the potential for a big

Showdown however for the here and now

the market is just simply not all that

worried about it looks like stocks

couldn't even care less oil did trade up

a bit over the last week pulled back a

little bit today maybe a bit of worries

over demand been a little bit soft

lately so we'll just have to wait and

see to see what sort of response Iran is

going to give expect them to do

something just may not be a fulls scale

attack and all the missiles might be

able to be shot down again just like in

April Gold's still sitting pretty though

at all-time highs still pricing in a bit

of geopolitical risk in my opinion along

with a chance for lower rate that's

another Tailwind actual demand in the

physical Market still breaking out to

records nonwestern central banks still

want to accumulate and huddle it and

they may also want to do the same thing

with Bitcoin apparently we've only got

two governments in the top 10 list of

Bitcoin holders US Government 213,000

coins Chinese government 190,000 but

look at that black Rock's Bitcoin ETF I

bit the third largest owner of Bitcoin

after binance exchange and the creator

of Bitcoin whom is still officially an

unknown person satosi Nakamoto 1.1

million coins he holds in his wallet if

the guy is still even alive and I wonder

if we'll ever find out who he really is

there's a look at fed fund future

pitches actually gone back to pricing in

high probability we get a 50 basis point

cut next month than 25 they think Jay's

going to kick things off with a bang and

get straight to work which we can't rule

out for sure however I still think the

odds are at a 25 basis point cut he's

still got to be mindful of lingering

inflation can't say for sure it's

definitely been beat like I said he

lived through the 70s where they thought

it was beat in 1976 as well but who

knows if he's seen sharp signs of

deterioration in the economy he may just

want to get to work with 50 basis point

cut but I'd say this next meeting is

really crunch time he could really go

either way he could hold he could do 25

he could do 50 this is really up in the

air this next meeting that could give a

bit of volatility in the bond market

potentially the stock market as well but

like I said for the Here and Now appear

to be holding on almost back at the

50-day on the S&P 500 with that sharp

dive in volatility risk premium really

sticking out to me here today amongst

all others and of course tomorrow could

be another test for this market after we

get CPI should be an interesting one

thanks very much for tuning in with me

today and I look forward to breaking all

down again for you guys tomorrow cheers