What If the COVID-19 Pandemic Lasts 18 Months or More?

Summary

This video script from March 22nd, 2020, delves into the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on society, detailing its rapid global spread and the potential long-term effects if it persists for 18 months or more. It discusses the importance of social distancing, the shift towards streaming for entertainment, economic implications, and the challenges faced by various industries. The script also highlights the race for vaccine development and the collective global effort to combat the virus, emphasizing personal responsibility and the need for informed action.

Takeaways

• 🌐 The COVID-19 pandemic, as of March 2020, had a significant global impact with over 300,000 confirmed cases and 200,000 active cases worldwide.
• 🔬 It was estimated that developing a vaccine could take up to 18 months or more, with the situation evolving rapidly and requiring expert predictions for long-term planning.
• 🏥 The best personal defense against the virus was to maintain social distancing, stay indoors, wash hands frequently, and avoid touching the face.
• 📈 The virus's spread was traced back to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in China, and by January 2020, it had spread globally, prompting quarantines and travel bans.
• 🏛️ The pandemic led to widespread closures of schools, events, and non-essential businesses, with the potential for these measures to continue for an extended period.
• 🎥 The entertainment industry shifted towards streaming and video-on-demand, with major releases opting for direct-to-VOD instead of theatrical releases.
• 💵 The National Debt was expected to rise due to government relief packages and market fluctuation relief efforts by the US Federal Reserve.
• 🏫 School closures disrupted education systems, with exams being canceled and college admissions potentially stalled, leading to a shift towards online learning.
• 🏢 The pandemic's long-term effects could lead to a 'shut-in economy,' affecting businesses like restaurants, hotels, and entertainment venues, and causing economic and political shifts.
• 🗳️ Future elections could be impacted by the pandemic due to the challenges of public gatherings at polling stations.
• 🌱 The pandemic highlighted the need for better healthcare systems and technology to predict, detect, and treat diseases before they become epidemics.

Q & A

How many confirmed COVID-19 cases were there as of March 22nd, 2020?

As of March 22nd, 2020, there were over 300,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19.

What was the estimated timeline for developing a vaccine for COVID-19 according to the script?

Scientists and epidemiologists estimated that it could take as long as eighteen months, or potentially even more, to research, develop, and distribute a workable vaccine for COVID-19.

What measures were suggested to avoid catching the Coronavirus on a personal level?

To avoid catching the Coronavirus, the script suggests maintaining social distancing, staying indoors, washing hands frequently, and not touching your face.

When were the first public reports of the Novel Coronavirus made?

The first public reports of the Novel Coronavirus were made on December 31st, 2019.

What was the initial source of the virus believed to be?

The initial source of the virus was believed to be the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, where it is thought to have infected its first human hosts.

How did the Chinese government respond to the early outbreak of COVID-19?

The Chinese government responded by shutting down the exotic meat market on January 1st and later put the entire city of Wuhan under strict quarantine on January 23rd, 2020.

What was the first country outside of China to report COVID-19 cases?

Thailand was the first country outside of China to report COVID-19 cases.

What was the impact of the pandemic on the entertainment industry according to the script?

The pandemic led to a shift towards streaming and video-on-demand, with major releases skipping theatrical runs and moving directly to VOD-releasing. Production sets for movies and TV shows were also likely to be halted due to the risk of transmission.

How did the pandemic affect the National Debt and government spending?

The US Federal Reserve spent trillions of dollars in market fluctuation relief, and the US government spent $100 billion as part of a COVID-19 relief package, indicating a likely rise in the National Debt.

What challenges did the script predict for the education system due to school closures?

The script predicted massive disruption to education systems, with high school exams being cancelled leading to reductions in college admissions and a potential stall in the college system while new systems and technology are developed.

What is the concept of 'flattening the curve' mentioned in the script?

Flattening the curve refers to the public health strategy of spreading out the infections over time to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system, allowing it to support a smaller number of cases over a longer period of time.

Outlines

00:00

😷 COVID-19 Pandemic: Early Impact and Global Response

This paragraph provides an overview of the COVID-19 pandemic's early stages, highlighting the timeline from the first reports in December 2019 to the global spread by March 2020. It discusses the significant changes in daily life, the potential timeline for vaccine development, and the importance of social distancing and hygiene to prevent infection. The paragraph also traces the virus's origin to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in China and details the initial containment efforts that ultimately failed to prevent the global spread. It emphasizes the rapid progression of the pandemic and the unprecedented impact on society, including the closure of schools, cancellation of events, and increased safety measures worldwide.

05:00

🌐 Economic and Social Ramifications of an Extended Pandemic

The second paragraph delves into the potential long-term effects of an 18-month or longer COVID-19 pandemic. It discusses the economic implications, such as increased national debt due to relief packages and the potential for temporary policies to prevent evictions and provide financial relief for small businesses. The impact on the education system is also highlighted, with the cancellation of exams and a shift towards online learning. The paragraph further explores the concept of a 'shut-in economy,' the challenges to various industries, and the potential for civil unrest due to supply shortages and lockdown measures. It also touches on the possible effects on elections and the global reduction in carbon emissions, concluding with the need for improved healthcare systems and technology to better manage future pandemics.

10:03

🛡️ The Global Fight Against COVID-19 and the Path Forward

The final paragraph emphasizes the collective responsibility in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. It acknowledges the frightening scenarios but encourages responsibility, compassion, and unity in fighting the virus. The paragraph also mentions the ongoing development of multiple potential vaccines and the beginning of clinical trials, while cautioning that a vaccine is not an immediate solution. It concludes by urging viewers to stay informed through reliable sources and to practice social distancing and good hygiene to help 'flatten the curve' and reduce the spread of the virus.

Keywords

💡COVID-19

COVID-19 is the disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. It is the central theme of the video, discussing its impact on global health and society. The script mentions the timeline of the virus's emergence, its spread, and the measures taken to combat it, such as quarantine and social distancing.

💡Pandemic

A pandemic refers to an outbreak of a disease that occurs over a wide geographic area and affects an exceptionally high proportion of the population. In the script, the term is used to describe the global impact of COVID-19, emphasizing the scale and severity of the situation.

💡Zoonotic diseases

Zoonotic diseases are those that can be transmitted from animals to humans. The script explains that coronaviruses are zoonotic, originating in the animal kingdom before infecting humans, which is a key concept in understanding the origins of COVID-19.

💡Quarantine

Quarantine is a measure taken to separate and restrict the movement of people who may have been exposed to a contagious disease to see if they become sick. The script discusses the implementation of quarantine in Wuhan and other places to control the spread of COVID-19.

💡Social distancing

Social distancing involves maintaining a safe physical distance between people to prevent the spread of a contagious disease. The script emphasizes social distancing as a crucial strategy to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare systems and save lives.

💡Vaccine

A vaccine is a biological preparation that provides active acquired immunity to a particular infectious disease. The script discusses the development of a vaccine for COVID-19 as a long-term solution to the pandemic, highlighting the scientific efforts and the time required for vaccine research.

💡Epidemiology

Epidemiology is the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states or events in populations. The script refers to epidemiologists' estimates and predictions regarding the duration and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, showcasing the role of this discipline in public health.

💡Containment procedures

Containment procedures are actions taken to limit or stop the spread of a disease. The script mentions containment as part of the government's response to the pandemic, including measures like travel bans and strict quarantines, which are essential in managing the spread of COVID-19.

💡Streamming and video-on-demand

Streaming and video-on-demand refer to the digital distribution of films and TV shows via the internet without a traditional physical medium. The script discusses how the pandemic has shifted entertainment towards these platforms, with major releases opting for VOD instead of theatrical releases.

💡National Debt

National debt is the total amount of money that a government owes its creditors. The script mentions the US Federal Reserve's spending in response to market fluctuations due to the pandemic and the potential increase in national debt as a result of relief packages and economic measures.

💡Supply shortages

Supply shortages occur when the demand for goods or services exceeds the available supply. The script warns of potential supply shortages during the pandemic, both in terms of consumer goods due to panic buying and medical supplies that could endanger the most vulnerable populations.

Highlights

The COVID-19 pandemic was four months old as of March 22nd, 2020.

Over 300,000 confirmed cases with nearly 200,000 active cases had been reported globally.

Recoveries outnumbered deaths significantly at the time, with 95,000 recoveries and 13,000 deaths.

The development and distribution of a vaccine was estimated to take up to 18 months or more.

Optimistic predictions suggested cases might decrease in the summer, similar to flu season patterns.

The video discusses the importance of planning for a worst-case pandemic scenario lasting 18 months or longer.

Maintaining social distancing, staying indoors, frequent hand washing, and avoiding face touching were recommended to avoid infection.

The first reports of the virus emerged in late December 2019, linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in China.

COVID-19 was identified as a Zoonotic disease, originating from animals before infecting humans.

China reported its first COVID-19 death on January 11, 2020.

The virus had spread globally by January 20, 2020, with cases in Thailand and the US.

Wuhan was placed under strict quarantine on January 23, 2020, and the WHO declared a public health emergency.

The death toll in China surpassed that of the SARS epidemic in February 2020 with 811 fatalities.

Outbreaks in the US, South Korea, Iran, and Italy, along with the first US deaths, marked the end of February 2020.

By early March 2020, COVID-19 had reached every continent and was declared a global pandemic by the WHO.

Government measures included school closures, event cancellations, and the closing of non-essential businesses.

Entertainment shifted towards streaming and video-on-demand, with major releases skipping theatrical runs.

Production halts for movies and TV shows due to close proximity working conditions increasing transmission risks.

The National Debt and government spending were expected to rise significantly due to relief packages and market fluctuations.

Temporary policies against eviction for lack of rent and increased pay for sick leave were being proposed.

School closures and exam cancellations could stall the college system and shift education to online platforms.

Social distancing is predicted to change our way of life fundamentally even after the pandemic ends.

Economic stresses on certain businesses could lead to a 'shut-in economy' and affect future elections.

The pandemic's management will likely improve with better healthcare systems and technology for disease prediction and treatment.

Supply shortages and panic buying were already issues, with potential for medical supply shortages endangering the vulnerable.

Widespread riots and civil unrest could result from lockdowns and supply shortages.

A worst-case scenario for the US predicts 160 million to 214 million infections and up to 1.7 million deaths.

Prolonging the pandemic could help 'flatten the curve', reducing strain on healthcare systems.

Fifteen potential vaccines are in development globally using various technologies.

The world is united in fighting COVID-19 and reducing its spread through social distancing and good hygiene.

Transcripts

As of this video’s writing, March 22nd, 2020, we’re almost four months into a brave

new COVID-19 world.

Since the initial public reports of the Novel Coronavirus on December 31st of 2019, we’ve

had over 300,000 confirmed cases, nearly 200,000 of which are still active.

While recoveries are still vastly outnumbering deaths – 95,000 to 13,000 at the time of

this counting – the disease has already caused massive changes to how we as individuals

and as a society have lived our lives.

Scientists and epidemiologists have estimated that it could take as long as eighteen months,

or potentially even more, to research, develop, and distribute a workable vaccine.

Many optimists believe that, if governmental rollout of treatment is effective and containment

procedures are followed, we may see cases begin to abate during the Summer months in

much the same way we do during flu season.

However, while it’s nice to hope for the best, it can often be more useful to plan

for the worst-case scenario.

What if the pandemic does continue as it does now for those whole eighteen months, or even

beyond?

While this is a fast-developing situation and the facts of the case tend to evolve day

by day, we can turn to experts and look at their current predictions for what an eighteen-month-or-beyond

pandemic might look like.

Also, keep in mind: The best way to avoid the adverse effects of the Coronavirus on

a personal level is to avoid catching it in the first place.

In order to do this, maintain social distancing, stay indoors, wash your hands frequently,

and don’t touch your face.

Before we take a look at where we might be heading with the COVID-19 pandemic, we first

need to take a look at where we’ve been, and chart the course of the virus’ growth

and spread over time.

As we previously mentioned, the first whisperings of the virus happened publicly in late December

of 2019.

Chinese health officials traced 41 cases of mysterious pneumonia back to the Huanan Seafood

Wholesale Market, where the virus is believed to have infected its first human hosts.

Coronaviruses are Zoonotic diseases, meaning they originate in the animal kingdom before

passing to human hosts.

After drawing the connection on January 1st, the Chinese government put the kibosh on the

exotic meat market, but by then it was already too late to contain the disease.

Chinese scientists first identified COVID-19 a week later, and by the 11th of January,

China reported their first COVID-19 death.

By January 20th, 2020, COVID-19 had already been exported across the globe.

Cases were reported in Thailand and the US, and by January 23rd, the Chinese government

put the entire city of Wuhan under strict quarantine.

By the end of the month, the World Health Organization had declared a public health

emergency, and President Trump had issued a ban on travelling to the US for those who’d

been in Wuhan up to two weeks prior to travelling.

The first ten days of February saw infections spike both inside and outside China, as well

as the first deaths in the Philippines and the death of a United States citizen in Wuhan.

By the ninth of February, the death toll in China had surpassed that of the 2002-2003

SARS epidemic with 811 fatalities.

February also gave us the virus’ name, COVID-19, as well as huge outbreaks in the US, South

Korea, Iran, and Italy.

The end of February also brought the first deaths on US soil, as the devastation continued

into March.

Early March saw cases pop up on every continent across the globe, as well as a declaration

of global pandemic from the World Health Organization.

In the wake of increasing case numbers and skyrocketing COVID-19 deaths, countries have

ramped up their quarantine and safety measures across the planet.

On March 17th, a leaked government plan revealed the possibility that the pandemic could potentially

last as long as eighteen months, and come in multiple waves rather than being a single,

linear progression.

This brings us to the present.

It’s clear that the progression has been extremely rapid, with an almost unprecedented

global spread.

Some government measures may slow the global rate of transmission slightly, but where can

we expect to go from here?

We’ve seen a huge rush of school closures and event cancellations across the globe,

as well as the closing of non-essential meeting places like bars, theatres, and dine-in restaurants.

These trends are likely to continue for the foreseeable future, and affect almost every

aspect of our lives, from food to entertainment to healthcare.

Entertainment is moving increasingly towards streaming and video-on-demand, with major

releases like Wonder Woman: 1984 skipping its theatrical run entirely and moving directly

towards VOD-releasing.

If we’re looking at a protracted pandemic, we’ll likely see more more and more releases

forego their theatrical runs and go straight to video on demand.

However, this actually has wider implications for your entertainment as a whole.

Production sets for movies and television involve a lot of people working in close proximity

– making them huge transmission risks.

As a result, it’s unlikely new movies and TV shows would be made, so you better get

used to enjoying re-runs of all your favorite shows.

Thankfully, many internet content creators – like this show – are less likely to

be affected due to having smaller teams.

So, there will be plenty more new videos to get you through the boredom of quarantine.

The National Debt is something that’s also likely to rise.

The US Federal Reserve has already spent trillions of dollars in market fluctuation relief and

the US government has also recently spent $100 billion as part of a COVID-19 relief

package.

These numbers are likely to continue rising over the eighteen-month period, if the pandemic

does indeed last that long.

Many areas in the US have adopted temporary policies forbidding eviction for the lack

of rent due to the unprecedented levels of sudden unemployment.

Other proposed legislation will likely increase pay for sick leave, and also move towards

financial relief for small businesses suffering due to shut-downs.

School closures over the next eighteen months will also cause massive disruption to education

systems across the globe.

High school exams being cancelled will lead to huge reductions in college admissions,

essentially stalling the college system for over a year while new systems and technology

are developed to work around the COVID-19 pandemic.

If classes do resume, they’ll likely be online, using services such as Zoom that’ve

grown extremely popular as of late.

Many commentators have observed that social distancing will likely fundamentally change

our way of life for years to come, even after the 18-month pandemic concludes.

In the short term, writer Gideon Lichfield posits that the following businesses are likely

to be the most damaged by protracted, mandatory social distancing: restaurants, cafes, bars,

nightclubs, gyms, hotels, theaters, cinemas, art galleries, shopping malls, craft fairs,

museums, musicians and other performers, sporting venues and sports teams, conference venues

and conference producers, cruise lines, airlines, public transportation, private schools, and

day-care centers.

Huge stresses to these businesses will likely shift the economy on a fundamental level,

leading to what some economists have dubbed the “shut-in economy.”

The 18-month pandemic also throws the prospect of future federal and state elections into

question, considering the amount of public gathering at polling stations that’s usually

required during voting.

The economic and political nature of the entire planet is likely to shift over the coming

months – with consolation prizes being the sudden reduction of carbon emissions from

working at home and the complete nosedive of international travel during the current

crisis.

Many predict that the only conceivable way to manage future pandemics in the wake of

COVID-19’s devastation will be to develop better healthcare systems, and sophisticated

technology to predict, detect, and treat those at risk before outbreaks even have an opportunity

to become epidemics and pandemics.

Still, in the short term, many have predicted issues with supply shortages – already precipitated

with rampant panic buying at many retail environments across the globe, as well as dangerous medical

supply shortages that could leave some of the most vulnerable in real danger.

Many predict that, using the precedent of prior pandemics, the stress of worldwide lockdowns

and supply shortages could result in widespread riots and civil unrest.

This could not only succeed in spreading the virus further, but will also expend valuable

government resources better spent treating cases of the virus itself.

Also, it goes without saying that people’s lives would also be negatively affected by

the violence itself.

The New York Times outlined a numerical worst-case-scenario for the pandemic in the US: If things go badly,

160 million to 214 million people could be infected with COVID-19 over a brief pandemic

period.

This leaves the door open for 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths, and between 2.4 million and

21 million hospitalizations.

This – in addition to the social distancing measures required to prevent further devastation

– will likely cause economic devastation that’s hard to predict.

There’s likely to be further job losses, as well as continued market instability that

could affect everything from employment rates to currency values.

Ironically, stretching the pandemic over a protracted period of time – such as eighteen

months – could actually bode well for society overall.

You may have heard the phrase “flattening the curve” recently, but not had it fully

explained.

Essentially, it’s extremely likely that large portions of the US will be infected

with COVID-19, regardless of what happens.

In order to ensure best results, social distancing spreads the infections over time, allowing

the healthcare system to support a smaller number of cases over a longer period of time.

If the cases spike massively in a short period of time, while the pandemic will technically

be over earlier, it will overwhelm the healthcare system and cause a much larger death toll.

In other words, the longer the disease lasts, the better off everyone involved will be.

In the meantime, scientists are developing fifteen different potential vaccines across

the globe, using diverse technologies that include mRNA, DNA, nanoparticle, synthetic,

and modified virus-like particles to hasten the process.

Phase 1 clinical trials are beginning in multiple countries for various potential COVID-19 vaccines

and treatments, though as stated before, many of these could take as long as eighteen months

to potentially be offered to the public – especially when factoring in testing and distribution

time.

While the vaccine will ultimately be a huge part of ending the pandemic, it’s an end

so far off that it’s not worth banking on for the time being.

The fact is, the world is currently united in one cause: Fighting the COVID-19 virus,

and preventing it from claiming and ruining lives as much as we can.

Everyone on Earth has a responsibility to reduce the spread of the disease by maintaining

social distance, keeping good hygiene, and staying informed through reliable sources

like the World Health Organization and the Center for Disease Control.

While frightening scenarios like an eighteen-month pandemic are becoming increasingly likely

over time, all we can do is be responsible and compassionate, and work together in fighting

the viral threat that unites us.

Thank you for watching this episode of The Infographics Show.

We realize these can be scary times, but we’re here to keep you occupied.

If you want more information on diseases and our response to them, check out “Why Spanish

Flu Killed Over 50 Million People – Deadliest Plague In Modern History” and “What If

Ebola Infected The Whole World.”

In the meantime, stay indoors, wash your hands, and get that hand off your face!